Economically speakingr things are looking up!

lly Fred Caruso []xecutive Secretary Mountain States Lumber & Uuildine Material Dealers Association

HE WESTERN states have been in the economic doldrums for quite some time, but by every economic indicator the past few years have been pretty good and the rest of 1991 and all of 1992 should be something to sing about.

The retail lumber and building materials industry understandably expands and declines with the construction industry and especially the residential housing industry. In Colorado, housing has been on the downward skids since 1983. until it bottomed out in 1989. California isn't expected to bottom out until the end of 1991. Nevada was a latecomer to the housing boom, having peaked out in 1988. Housing there isn't expected to start upward again until next year, and then by just a smidgen.

How do I know all of this? I get my information from the Western Blue Cltip Economic Forecast put out by the Economic Outlook Center of the College of Business at Arizona State Uniyersity. They advertise that their information is "What the Blue Chip economists are saying about the western states." The newsletter was recommended ,to me by Jim Beardall, president, Anderson Lumber Co., Ogden, Ut., who studies it with an eye to the future. You can't get a stronger recommendation than one from Jim Beardall!

I took the Economic Forecast and translated it into a 28-page report for our members, mainly in the form of picture graphs. I added a few economic indicators of my own to those offered by the blue ribbon panel of experts. Namely, I translated a num- ber of key figures into values per 1,000 persons, or values per individual. I have a hard time dealing with gross figures. I want to know what things mean on an individual basis.

Using my figures of numbers of residential permits per 1,000 persons, you will find that Colorado and California are just about tied for this year, according to the economists, at 4.34 and 4.38 permits per 1,000 perSONS.

Story at a Glane

Economic indicators favorable for rest of '91 and '92 trans. lating figures into values per 1,(Xlo persons gives statistics a new twist Nevada housing permits through '92 climb off chart Colorado & California tie...

Arizona issued more than twice the number of permits per 1,000 persons as Colorado in 1987 (2.52 times more to be exact). The rate was 13.41 per 1,000 for Arizona and only 5.32 for Colorado. Texas was at a puny 3.0 permits per 1,000 persons in 1987 and will be lucky to see 2.97 for 1991. while Arizona will suffer at 7.75, which is still about 8006 higher than Colorado. Nevada's permit rate peaked out in 1989 at26.29 residential units per 1,000 and is down to 18.65 for this year.

We all know residential construction is down because of the devastating effects of the energy bust of the early 1980s, changes in the tax laws in 1986, the general slowing economy which went along with controlling inflation, and now the banking and S & L crisis. But the question is, "How bad is the economy, really,