Brqnds bronds ore you know well rhot selll @g$x'Ceilings

Never Ler You Down

Celotex ceilings sell lhemselves to your cusiomers becouse they off er f ive vorious methods of instollofion. A big selling point, indeed! A prof it moker for you! Mony potierns lo choose give your customer onolher plus in selecting Celotex ceilings. Shhhh! Your cuslomer likes the noise obsorbing quolities of Celotex ceilings, too.

Never Leoves You Out In Fhe Cold

Cuf energy costs ! Conserves energy itself ! When you offer Celotex Thermox sheothing ond il's combined wirh f ibergloss insulotion with convenlionol 2 x 4 froming, your cusfomer hos on energy-eff icient insuloting sysfem f or new buildings ond odditions thol won'f leove him oul in ihe cold.

m

Arizona Convention

(Please turn to page 15) the establishment and first official meeting of the "Young Lumbermen of Arizona," a new youth group (under 40 years old) established by the AL&BSA. Its main objective is "to educate, instruct, inform and assist industry members to become better lumbermen and women."

The business sessions began with an economic forecast by Dr. Gary Driggs, president, Western Savings and Loan Association, Phoenix. He sees a short term recession, less money supply growth and cutbacks in government spending as aiding the fight against inflation.

"What this country needs is a few bankruptcies, so business and labor will know there is a penalty for mistakes; it will supply the restraint that's absent now," he said.

He urged cutbacks in the amounts proposed for defense spending. "Defense contractors are about to rip off the country," he claimed. Dr. Driggs also favors a cutback in social programs.

Economist Elliott D. Pollack,

v.p., Valley National Bank, Phoenix, then presented his view of where Arizona is going in the next five years. He sees "a rocky road" for the short term, with business gradually improving in the next few years. Pollack called the long term outlook "exceptional." He noted that forecasts on the prime lending rate vary from l09o-2590.

For Arizona, housing will be up slightly this year, will increase l5s/o-20s/o next year and by 1983 "it will be booming." He also anticipates that by that time we will "have smaller houses, less inflation and lower interest rates; a different world."

He sees current financial restraints as "here to stay," with borrowers assuming the risk, instead of the lenders, when taking out a mortgage to buy a home.

New mortgage instruments was the topic tackled by Gordon Murphy, exec. v.p., Savings and Loan League of Arizona. He said that mortgage credit "will never be cheap again." Noting the death of the fixed rate, 30-year mortgage, Murphy reviewed new types of mortgages. Included were variable

The Merchant Magazine rate mortgages (VRM); roll-over mortgages (new rate annually); renegotiable rate mortgages (both rates and length vary); and Flex-rate (where the monthly payment could change each month, quarterly or annually, tied to an objective index).

Many of the new mortgages have no limit as to how much increase or decrease in the monthly payment would occur. While without limits, he said mortgage payments would be stabilized and determined by the competition of the marketplace. Murphy said that extensive government borrowing in the public money markets competes with the individual who borrows through his mortgage. The effect is to increase the individual's cost of acquiring mortgage money.

The possibility of material shortages was addressed by a panel discussion, moderated by John T. King, Southwest Forest Industries, that included Ralph Rundle, Southwest Forest Industries; Thomas R. Ingham, Jr., Simpson Timber Co.; Skip Corley, Arizona Portland Cement; Gary Mannies, Gold Bond Building Products; and

Gordon Arkley, Owens-Corning Fiberglas.

Panelist Rundle said he anticipates no shortages until the housing rate hits 1.7 million home starts per year. He foresees starts this year in a range from 1.25 million to 1.3 million. He advised dealers to examine their suppliers to assure themselves that an adequate supply of lumber will be available should the market turn up sharply.

Simpson Timber's Tom Ingham said that redwood would be available and noted that Arizona was fifth in redwood consumption nationally. He said that 9090 of redwood commons shipped in 1980 were to destinations West of the Mississippi River.

His company has spent $53 million in the last two years on land and mills to be certain that a sure and steady supply of redwood is available for the market. Ingham said that the transition from old growth to young growth redwood was well along and that the customer acceptance has been favorable.

Shortages of cement will begin occuring in 1982 according to panelist Skip Corley, who blamed environ- mental restrictions and the other costs involved in adding new capacity to the cement industry. Other factors limiting cement supply include transportation (weight restricts shipping distance to 300 miles from a plant), low return on investment and location of limestone deposits. Ninety percent of cement is limestone. Corley said it will generally be available, but cost will rise.

Dealers should plan now for a gypsum wallboard shortage next year advised Gold Bond's Gary Mannies. Nationally, the shortage will become evident during a period from July 1982-January 1983. The shortage in Arizona will probably occur, he said, some three to six months earlier. He said that despite Gold Bond's new $40 million plant, and others in the industry, that shortages will happen.

No shortages of insulation, other than short, spot shortages, were foreseen by final panelist Gordon Arkley. He observed that the industry has added capacity, betting on a bright future for housing in the 1980s. Like other panelists, he said that any sudden increase in housing production to the two million an- nual level would cause disruptive, across-the-board shortages. The business session on the final convention day, Saturday, May 9, began with a tub thumping talk by management consultant Murray McBride, Portland, Or., who said that "management never stops, you must stay on top of it, be disciplined, concentrated and work for short and long term goals."

McBride told the dealers to work on their "people problems" by telling employees your company objectives, and by providing tools and backup.

His 15 management suggestions were: (l) discover if your sales people are closing; (2) work on time management; (3) inspect what you expecu (4) work on prospects; (5) video tape your sales presentations; (6) stress telephone sales; (7) share product knowledge; (8) utilize sales tools and demonstrations; (9) work as a team; (10) increase productivity by using recognition; (11) be empathetic, listen and seek feedback; (12) make decisions in sales situations to encourage your sales people; (13) honestly evaluate your strengths; (Please turn to page 48)