Modest recovery

By Ernest J. Stebbins Executive Manaser National Hardwdod Lumber Association

llt E HAVE turned the corner on f U the recession with 1992 giving all the indications of a modest recovery taking place. Continued low interest rates will encourage home building and improve the lumber market.

S ing le- f ami ly construction will probably out perform multi-family starts, which will benefit the hardwood market. Hardwood floors, paneling and kitchen cabinetry are an important part of single family construction, particularly in the high end market. In addition, the two most often remodeled rooms, the bathroom and the kitchen, present tremendous hardwood opportunities.

If inflation continues to remain stable, election year politics may very well keep interest rates low, finally producing an upturn in consumer confidence. Lower mortgage rates would also benefit the home resale market.

Politics will have a great deal to do with how far we go in 1992. It's a presidential election year and many have already given the victory to the Republican incumbent, Mr. Bush. Many concede that there are reasons why he looks good-a military victory in the Mideast, which secured oil supplies for the west; the fall of Communism, not only in eastern Europe, but in the Soviet Union as well; the easing of global military tensions and prospect of reduced government spending on the military. What Mr. Bush wants to do with the perceived "savings" will become the big question. I do not expect him to reveal any surprises in his spending plans next year, so I'll predict a mild recovery with the general excitement of the presidential campaign carrying his administration successfully through the November election and on to 1993.

Where will we find the wood products to put into the homes being built during the recovery next year? With national forest timber sales tied up in a gridlock of administrative appeals, lawsuits and endangered species regulations, and 50Vo of our softwood timber growing on federal lands, the material to build them might not be there.

Timber supply problems do not stop at the national forest boundaries. Private landowners are now finding out that endangered species regulations and wetland regulations apply to them too.

Story at a Glance

Slngle famlly constructlon wlll outperform multls, uslng more hardwood...presldentlal electlon wlll promoto recovery...lack of lumber a problom ...Wlse Use Movement scorIng agalnst preservatlonlsts.

The encouraging thing is we are finally doing something about it. The Wise Use Movement or Multiple Use Movement, a grass-roots network of people across the country whose livelihoods depend upon wise management of our natural resources, are beginning to outnumber environmentalists at some public hearings. The environmentalists are taking note of this "broad new protest with an amazing array of people" and a "sophisticated approach." Think what could happen in 1992 if they became as sophisticated as the Wilderness Society has been for all these years.