Dealers stronget in'92

By Gary Donnelly Executive Vice President National Lumber & Buildins Material Dealers Association

start the economy.

Jl untxc the pasr year the majori- Yty of lumber and building material dealers suffered the pain of a deep recession. While some areas of the country have suffered more than others, few escaped unscathed. When the recovery does come, probably not until mid-1992, we expect the individual dealer to be stronger than ever. Smarter credit manasement and innovative sales techniques that help him get by in tough times will pay dividends when we do pull out of the recessron.

Don't forget that 1992 is a presidential election year. We have a popular president, who is suffering about a 297o rating on his handling of domestic policy. It is difficult to imagine that an administration seeking reelection will not pull out all the stops in order to have a full fledged recovery well underway by the time election day rolls around. Watch for White House pressure on bank regulators to loosen their strangle hold on the nation's banks. Also, don't discount the Democrats who control the House and Senate and lust for the White House. If they can get their act together, and that is never a sure thing, you will see strong congressional effort to jump

President Bush campaigned four years ago promising to be the environmental president. That issue may resurface in '92 as both a virtue and a vice. In our industry environmental concerns are often synonymous with the spotted owl and timber harvesting. We need to be ready to counter any distortions or misinformation likely to surface from the preservationists in the guise of political correctness. The pendulum has swung too far in favor of the preservationists and 1992 may offer us opportunities to restore sanity and balance to the management of our most abundant and renewable natural resource.

Story at a Glance

Mid-year recovery fueled by election year maneuverings

...disproving preservationists' myths about our industry a must...lumber dealer may be the next endangered species.

On other fronts, in keeping with election year priorities, we will see renewed stimuli to get housing starts up. That welcome relief could come in the form of no-penalty IRA withdrawals for first-time home buyersa notion we have been supporting since it was first introduced by Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-Tx.) last year.

The other big issue will be health care reform. That monster is not by any stretch of the imagination going to be tamed in'92, but you can bet we will witness countless ways to solve what many consider our nation's largest and fastest growing crisis.

My fear is that short-sighted and short-term solutions will be pushed through the Congress by incumbents eager to tell constituents "See what I have done for you." Business could become the source of funding for new programs passed in a frenzy. One thing is certain: health care reform is overdue and will be a major issue in the national political campaigns. We need to be vigilant and prepared to act responsibly to assure that health care solutions do not create another bureaucratic monolith offering little or no relief.

The bottom line for 1992? We could lose the forest management/timber supply issue if we are not effective at the local, state and national levels. Out-numbered and out-financed by the environmental groups, we will have our hands full in 1992 as we battle to sway public opinion. Too many people know too little about our industry and our role in society, yet they are being led by preservationists who believe our industry is raping the land and wood and wood products are dispensable to our way of life.

Disproving those myths has to be a priority for every one of us. Onerous regulations and bulging budget deficits, as burdensome as they are, pale in comparison with the necessity of maintaining the livelihood of the lumber and building material industry. I want 1992 to be the year in which we make a substantive difference in the way our industry is viewed. It must be the year in which we realize real relief from preservationists seeking to make the lumber dealer the next endangered species. That's the challenge for all of us in'92.