Price & supply questionable

By Daryl L. Lansdale President & CEO Scotty's

llouslNG srarrs in 1992 are an- I lticipated to grow to l.l million on a national basis. Florida starts in 1992 are estimated at I 18,000 to t20,0m.

In 1990, Florida starts were recorded at 128,000, which was 337o below the l 985 level of l9l,l47 During the 1990-1995 period however, this trend is expected to reverse and Florida should approach the l4 housing starts h rhe 148,000 to 150,000 level.

Many communities and counties are advocating slow or controlled growth. We support the latter which should balance the infrastructure with the population and income growth.

We will face several issues in 1992 that will have an impact on the price and availability of lumber products.

The recent breakins of the Memo- randum of Understanding (MOU) between Canada and the United States has created uncertainties as to Canadian lumber duties. If the two countries cannot come to an equitable agreement early next year, significant duties could apply to framing lumber from Canada.

The environmental issues will continue to cause concem reg:uding available timber supply. The recent trend is to take national forests away from the multi-use concept and lock them up for wilderness areas to protect threatened species. This has already created mill closings as producers of wood products have not been able to secure a log base to harvest.

Due to governmental regulations and environmental concerns, we anticipate significant market price swings in 1992; however, there will be adequate supply to fill the market demands. Astute inventory management will allow us to take advantage of the market conditions and continue to provide our customers quality lumber and building materials at competitive pnces.

The big winners in the 1990s will be those companies which understand