We are on the right track

By Pete Niebling Executive Vice President North American Wholesale Lumber Associa tion

N November 22, 1983, we completed a 20-city schedule throughout NorthAmericaof memberRegional Meetings. Attendance at these gatherings hit an alltime 23 year record. More importantly, the outlook and confidence offorest products wholesalers and producers was up substantially from our meetings in l98l and 1982.

In a paragraph, the "consensus environment" among wholesalers was that volume is up; market levels are fairly healthy; there is strong pressure on margins; and it takes a lot of work to gamer profitable business. It is a very competitive marketplace, and there is a bit too much production.

It is association policy to provide a forecast for the coming year. Currently, the NAWLA forecast for 1984 housing activity is one of the most conservative. There are member firms that either believe or hope for stronger numbers than our 1.6 million prediction for 1984. Conversely, the other half of the market for forest products unrelated to housing looks better to the association than to some of our wholesalers who distribute in them.

We believe that the heavy industry industrial market for lumber and plywood will improve in 1984. Likewise, the do-it-yourself and remodeling market should be stronger as unemployment continues to decline. We also look for better activity in the farm market for wood products. While the midwest drought was serious, thecrops that survived will likely bring better prices and will get an additional boost

Story at a Glance

Wholesalers optimistic. .1.6 million housing starts. nonhousing market strengthening treated wood use on the in. crease. pretty good busi. ness for good operator.

from the PIK program of Uncle Sam.

Overall, we are optimistic about our forest products industry because we are on the right track for zustained profitable business. In fact, we could make the good argument that a 1984 "housing boom" of 1.8 or 1.9 million units might be counter-productive in 1985.

Today, our competitive climate prohibits "order-taking " Sales people are working harder and being more innovative because it is being required. This is healthy for our industry.

The manufacturer is seriously looking for new markets and is gearing up product promotion and effort for both domestic and overseas markets. Western Wood Products has their Impetus program. The Southern Forest Products Association is heavily involved in export opportunities. The Canadian industry is promoting hard in both world and North American markets. This is heatthy for our industry.

The use of treated wood is on the increrse. Systems like the All-Weather Wood Foundation and the Plenum Floor System hold a great deal ofpromise. At the same time, wholesalerremanufacturers are incre-asing their activities in the smaller, but still viable, specialty wood markets.

In summary, business is going to be pretty good next year for the good operator. There is much promise for sustained good business beyond 1984. There will be new market opportunities for the industrious. Not a bad outlook for the New Year!