predicts slower lumber sales

IESPITE record demand lor lumt--fber in 1998. a slower market is predicted for 1999, according to Walter M. Wirfs, president of the Western Wood Products Association, Portland, Or.

Wirfs' assertion came during a September association meeting in which he maintained that lumber demand should reach 52.3 million bd. ft. this year. This figure, he continued, represented a record in the industry and a 2.8Vo increase over 1997 volumes.

"Lumber use in new home construction and repair/remodeling should set all-time records this year, underscoring that lumber remains the top choice in building homes," Wirfs said, attributing the growth to a strong U.S. economy and a busy home building market.

He further noted a decline in U.S. lumber exports combined with increased imports added to lumber supplies in 1988, pushing lumber prices down by more than 20Vo from last year. forecast to rise 24Vo from 1997 volumes.

"Lower prices are a boon for lumber consumers," he continued, "but they've put additional financial pressure on Western lumber mills still reeling from timber supply problems of recent years."

U.S. lumber exports are expected to decline 3l7o this year, likely due to Asia's economic problems. So far this year, shipments to Japan, American lumber products' top offshore customer, are down two-thirds.

Western lumber production is expected to finish at 16.8 billion bd. ft., O.7Vo above 1997 volumes. Meanwhile, Southern output should fall4.7Vo.

With housing expected to be down in 1999. the demand for lumber should also decline to an anticipated 50.6 billion M. ft., down 3.2Vo, still the third highest recorded annual consumption.

Imports are expected to top a record 18.6 billion bd. ft. this year, a 36Vo share of the market. At 96Vo of import volume, Canadian lumber imports should increase by 2.8Vo.

Non-Canadian lumber imports are

Housing starts are forecast at 1.5 million for 1999, a 5.l%o decrease. Lumber use in repair and remodeling should also fall.

Western lumber production is forecast to hold close to 1998 volumes, while a 4.77o decrease is expected for Southern mills. Imports are expected to fall l.5Vo.