TOPICS

Depew

president

I N fnnvellNG around the state or I in conversations on the phone, I find members constantly asking about economic issues. They are curious and concerned about business conditions within the industry and what I see happening in the future. Well, I'm certainly not an economist, but I did a little checking over at the Texas Department of Commerce and found some interesting facts. And for whatever it's worth, here's what I've learned.

In the decade from 1976 to 1986 employment rose by almost 1.5 million in Texas. Population increased by almost 3 million. Total personal income increased by almost $124 billion or more than over $13,000 per person in a state that had traditionally lagged below the national average. Towards the end ofthe decade, Texas also suffered through what was perceived nationally to be one of the worst (and few) recessions in the history of the state.

What happened? When, or will, Texas ever recover?

In retrospect, and to paraphrase Mark Twain, "The reports of the demise of the Texas economy are greatly exaggerated."

Texas did experience a recession. But, the recession would never have appeared so deep, had the growth period preceding it not been so strong. While there is no denying that the Texas economy has suffered through relative hard times in the last several years, there are two facts which must be remembered. First, the period of growth and expansion which preceded the recession was one of the largest and most sustained of any state economy in the history of the United States. Second, the recession is over.

Evidence that the recession is over is all around us. In the last half of 1987 alone, 83,000 new non-farm jobs were created in Texas. In 1987, employment in oil and gas was up by 4,700 from 188,300 in January 1987. Over the same period, employment and manufacturing increased by 33,500 to 979,100. In December of 1987, employment in aircraft and other transportation equipment totaled 95,400 up 7,900 jobs from December 1986. Statewide employment in electronics in December 1987 was 124,400, up 5,200 over a year earlier. Employment in computers, oil field machinery and other non electrical machinery rose by 4,000 from 102,900 in December 1986.

Notes

Ef BcOtvtvtENDATIoNS will be I I coming soon from the committee appointed by president Cal Browning to study various locations for an OLA midwinter trip.

Ramon Sutton, Glen Haney, Jim Lovell and Buford White have been researching various sites. The trips, very popular in the past, haven't been organized for several years because of the Oklahoma economy.

Since our mill tour last October, the office has received several requests from members for a tour of a pressure treating facility. We have contacted one of our associate members who has regularly scheduled tours oftheir pressure treating facilities. They are agreeable to a tour sometime in the fall. More details will be published as soon as we agree upon a date.

Attendance at the free seminars sponsored by OLA in late spring included people from all over the area. Sched- uled to start at 4 p.m. on Saturday, they allowed both yard and associate members to attend outside of business hours. In addition, the time allowed those in remote locations to make the drive to Oklahoma City. The first session was attended by 17 people. The second attracted 14.

And the energy industry was not excluded from the recovery. The petrochemical industry, which accounts for one-third of the state's manufacturing exports, is operating at nearly full capacity along the Texas coast. At present, 49 new petrochemical construction projects, valued at $1.5 billion are scheduled for completion by 1990.

Agriculture showed some bright spots as well. In West Texas, 1987 closed with a bumper cotton crop, record-setting yields, and prices higher than they have been since 1980. Livestock receipts were also up sharply in 1988.

In the Texas Rio Grande Valley, a large seasonal industry in fruit production showed sustained growth for the first time since a hard freeze decimated that industry in 1983.

As for the near term, in 1988, total gross state product is projected to increase by 2.80/o ending a three year slide, and once again better the national economy's projected growth rate of 2.20/o.This year 86,600 jobs will be added to the state's economy, and by the end of 1988, total statewide non-farm employment will surpass 6.688 million representing an all-time record high for Texas.

That the Texas economy continues to diversify is evidenced by the fact that of the new jobs, 65,400, or 760/0, will be created in the service sector of the economy. Of those jobs, most will be in wholesale and retail trade.

This is the Jirst of several columns to explain what's going on economically in Texased.

Besides being scheduled at a convenient hour and day, the seminars on justice and collections were free to those attending.

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