New Zealand

AFTER four years of tremendous inroads into the U.S., lLradiata pine imports from New Z,ealand seem finally to have leveled off. Experts predict a second big import upsurge beginning in the year 2000 and another in 2005.

"It reflects the maturing of the resource," explains Ian Shapland, Forestry Corp. of New Zealand. "There was very little (radiata pine) before 1990 in the U.S. and now the U.S. has become one of our best export markets. Exports probably plateaued over the past year, but there will be another peak in three to four years."

But the U.S. is only one of many export destinations for New Zealand. "The price development in the lumber and reman product sectors over the past 15 months in the U.S. has made it rather difficult to stay profitable when exporting forest products from New Zealand," relates Jost Siegfried, New Zealand Ministry of Forestry. "Supplying a number of overseas markets, New Zealand log prices are determined by all of these and can lead to critical bottlenecks when prices in one particular market fall under a profitable minimum level."

Figures from the Ministry of Forestry show steady increases over the last five vears:

Log and lumber exports (separate figures for remanufactured products are not available):

New Zealand Export Figures

Forecasts to the U.S. were obtained by interviewing all of New Zealand's major exporters to the U.S.:

The above figures include a small proportion of indigenous timber and a few minor species (such as other pines, Douglas fir and macrocarpa, etc.). But more than 90Vo is radiata pine and its share continues to increase as volumes cut from the other species diminish.

Although imports of remanufactured products (mouldings, cutstock, etc.) from New Zealand have been well below Canadian and Chilean shipments, Siegfried anticipates decent increases in the coming years.

His predictions assume that "the development in the U.S. market will at worst stay at present price levels or hopefully will increase slightly. The New 7*aland companies feel that the current situation is for a good demand of product, but at very marginal prices," he says. "The major suppliers have a good commitment to the U.S. market for a number of reasons, while smaller suppliers have already withdrawn in the main. We have interesting times ahead."