ARKANSASA OKLAHOMA

BOB JOHN €xecudtlg rrice presldent

THE LARGEST group of Arkansas

I and Oklahoma dealers in several years attended this year's convention in Kansas City despite a major snow storrn which dumped up to eight inches of snow on a large part ofthe area before and after the show.

Most dealers we talked to at the convention reported that business is greatly improved over a year ago. Last year at this time they were facing a difficult period with an extremely cold winter, sluggish business and severe cash flow problems.

After a slow start. 1982 turned out to be a satisfactory year for many dealers. The last few months of 1982 were very good. For many it helped make up for the poor business in the early months of 1982. Winter so far has been relatively mild and this has continud the good business for many.

Anumberof areas were hurt bythecost of money for the second home market. Generally, money was available for housing but at rates which were prohibitive for the average prospective buyer.

The recent reduction in interest rates should continue to have a favorable reaction on business in 1983. If rates come down a few more percentage points, it should spark business considerably.

There is a great pent-up demand for housing and lower interest rates should translate it into business for the dealer.

If consumer confidence continues to improve along with the lower interest rates, we could see big business in mid-1983 for the retailer. It is long overdue as we have been facing two years of very difficult operations which has taken its toll on the industry at all levels.

We are already seeing greater demand and higher prices for lumber and building products caused by the improved dealer sales at the end of 1982. If business continues to improve, we can see some product shortages and increased product costs. While it will be a welcome problem from reduced business, it does bring the threat of increased inflation.

Dealers in the lower Midwestappcar to be doing better right now than most parts of the country. Busines is ahead and many are planning to replenish their inventories.

One of the dark spots on the horizon is the threat of a duty on imported lumber products from Canada. Our industry relies heavily on Canadian lumber and restrictive duty would increase the cost of housing and put a damper on business.

The Mid-Amedca Lumbermens Association has joined with others to oppose the imposition of this unfair duty. Many domestic producers of lumber have lost theirmarkashare in the Midwest and are now trying to ga it back by restrictive and primitive m€asures.

A part of the blame can be found in the Federal government itself which has creatd and continued the high cost of Federal timber @ntracts, restrictive conservation practices and prohibitive ship ping practices. Thesc all have had the effect of bringing about higher prices ofdomestic lumber products.

As we ended the 1983 C-onvention, we saw a great deal of optimism for the months ahead. Although the last two years have had a negative effect on the financial position of many dealers, now could be the time when dealers should build their businesses and strengthen them for the years ahead.