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DAVID CUTLER publisher

lFl NE OF the effects of the Canadian-United V States agreement on Canadian softwood lumber exports to this country is that cedar will likely be more costly. The agreement includes a 150/o export tax by Canada that inevitably, somewhere along the line, will have to be paid for by someone. The question at this point is how much, if any, will it hurt cedar sales.

Our surveys have produced reactions that range all over the lot. Some are backing away from selling cedar to concentrate on redwood and presssure treated products. Others are convinced that the tax effect will be negligibte, that the costs will be absorbed.

One said, "it'll be just another cost of doing business." Another felt. "if they want good

Canadian cedar, they can pay for it." Ventured another wholesaler, "we'll be developing new sources in Oregon and California for domestic cedar to replace the Canadian product."

Economists see the situation as a classic case of government actions producing an artificial effect upon pure market forces. Others note that the entire business is far from permanent and cite possibilities that could cause major changes in the agreement and the money involved. The chance of a complete collapse of the agreement is also present.

At this point, the cedar situation is like an election where the polls have been closed for half an hour. It's just too early to call.