Regional Economic Development & Equity Assessment for Buffalo, New York

Regional Economic Development & Equity Assessment for Buffalo, New York

University at Buffalo School of Architecture and Planning Studio 581/582

Spring 2020

Text and Graphics Š 2020 Jiyoung Park, PhD, Karsten Brooks, Daniela Leon, Jilong Li, Christopher Platt, Gerardo Rivera, Tyler Scriven, Ian Stern, Erik Woyciesjes, Xieyang Xing, and Sydney Zuckerman. All rights reserved.

Book Design Š 2020 Jiyoung Park, PhD, Christopher Platt. All rights reserved.

Regional Economic Development & Equity Assessment for Buffalo, New York This is a first and limited edition print run.

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Regional Economic Development & Equity Assessment for Buffalo, New York

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Contents Executive Summary ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 7 1. RESEARCH ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 8 Methods ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 8 Calculating Location Quotients ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 8 Calculating GDP Coefficients ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 9 Inequality ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 9 Studio Overview ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������10

2. Study Area ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 12 Albany ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������12 Syracuse ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������13 Rochester ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������14 Buffalo �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������15

3. CITY ANALYSIS ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 18 Albany ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 18 Employment by Industry ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������18 Location Quotient ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������18 GDP Analysis ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������18 PICS Analysis �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������20 Network Analysis �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������22 Income Inequality Analysis ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������23

SYRACUSE ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 24 Employment by Industry ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������24 Economic Data ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������25 GDP ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������25 Location Quotient ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������25 Percent of Total GDP by Industry ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������26 PICS Analysis �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������26 Syracuse Analysis Overview & Conclusion �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������31

ROCHESTER �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 33 Employment by Industry ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������33 GDP Analysis ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������33 4

Percent of Total GDP by Industry ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������33 Location Quotient Analysis ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������33 PICS analysis ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������34 Network Analysis �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������36 Income Inequality Analysis ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������38 Rochester Analysis Overview & Conclusion ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������38

BUFFALO ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 40 Economic Demographics - Labor Force ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������40 Income �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������40 Gini Index �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������40 Employment by Industry ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������41 Location Quotient Data �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������41 GDP Analysis ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������41 PICS Analysis ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������42 Converting �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������44 Investing ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������44 Industry Network Analysis ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������44 Income Inequality Analysis ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������46 Buffalo Analysis Overview & Conclusion ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������47

4. Buffalo Case Study ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 48 Median Household Income & Employment ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������50 Buffalo Top Industries ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������52 Advanced Manufacturing ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������53 Health & Life Sciences ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������53 In-Depth Analysis of Buffalo PICS Chart ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������55 Cluster Analysis ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������56 PICS Panel Strategies ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������57 Industry Clusters & Sustainable Economic Development ������������������������������������������������������������������������60 Northland Workforce Training Center ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������60 Labor Force ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������61 Equity as a Critical Element of Development ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������64 Inclusive Economies �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������65 US Perspective ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������65 Education Equity ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������65 Medical Services ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������66 A Global Perspective �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������66 Strategy Recommendations ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������67

5. Conclusion ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 72 Understanding Context of This Report ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������72 5

The Team Jiyoung Park, Ph.D. Karsten Brooks Daniela Leon Jilong Li Christopher Platt Gerardo Rivera Tyler Scriven Ian Stern Erik Woyciesjes Xieyang Xing Sydney Zuckerman

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Executive Summary This study is focused on investigating economic development opportunities for four cities along the New York State I-90 corridor; Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany. Through the analysis of economic clusters, Regional Economic Development Council (REDC) strategies, and economic profiles for New York State (NYS), we propose a series of development and policy recommendations that will leverage economic growth through strategic investments and amplify equitable outcomes.

The report is a product of a graduate-level urban planning studio in the University at Buffalo’s School of Architecture & Planning. This studio is under the guidance and direction of Jiyoung Park, Ph.D., and student members include: Karsten Brooks, Daniela Leon, Jilong Li, Christopher Platt, Gerardo Rivera, Tyler Scriven, Ian Stern, Erik Woyciesjes, Xieyang Xing, and Sydney Zuckerman.

Our objective is to understand the historic and current economic trends in Albany, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse in order to assess their respective regional strategies. Data collected regarding location quotient (LQ), tradable sectors, and trends in the gross domestic product (GDP) from 2001 through 2018 were used to analyze the effectiveness of regional strategies. Findings build upon the current economic growth and investment strategies outlined by respective REDCs, and expand on opportunities for increasing the role of equity in regional economic growth.

Graphical representation of the city’s location quotient by industry and GDP was created using data extracted from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This serves as a template for a SWOT-styled analysis that assesses regional strategies as they relate to industrial concentrations or clusters around the state. The reason for this framework of analysis is that it aligns with New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo’s economic development strategy, providing an established platform for a detailed discussion on its various performance indicators and their relative success.

The formation of 10 regional councils in New York State has provided regional strategies that use the aforementioned cities as cornerstones for a clustered development strategy that aggregates investment into related industries and produces competitive businesses and labor markets while simultaneously addressing downtown revitalization and growing social concerns, using an approach developed by Harvard Business School’s Michael Porter.

Using network analysis, PICS (Pioneering, Innovation, Converting, and Strengthening) analysis, and Porter’s diamond model, the study seeks to identify a series of factors: demand conditions, factor conditions, related and supporting industries and content for firm strategy and rivalry. This type of assessment structure provides an appropriate platform to investigate the current regional policy and strategy as it relates to Albany, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse with the purpose of developing a reproducible way to assess urban growth within the context of the region but against the conditions of competitive markets.

Along with developing strategies for economic development based on historical trends, this report examines factors of community equity, better guiding our recommendations. This focus is included to ensure that the strategies we develop serve the communities to be a part of as best as possible.

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1. RESEARCH Research Process

Regional Economic Growth & Equity Assessment Buffalo, NY Studio Spring 2020 Research Design

Study Area

Cities on the NYS I-90 Corridor

Qualitative Study

REDC Reports Review Equity Assessment Literature Review

Data Analysis

Location Quotients Network Analysis PICS Analysis Lorenz Curves

City Analysis

Albany Buffalo Rochester Syracuse

Case Study & Equity Research

Recommendations and Further Research

Methods The method of this study is to investigate historical economic conditions and development strategies in four cities along the I-90 corridor (Albany, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse) and chooses Buffalo as a case study. We used gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of economic growth and location quotient (LQ) as a measure of the concentration of a sector in each city. Using a proprietary analysis instrument, the PICS analysis, we were able to identify industries as “Pioneering,” “Investing,” “Converting,” or “Strengthening.”

Using the data that we collected in addition to the PICS analysis, we investigated the development strategies from the corresponding Regional Economic Development Councils for each city.

In order to analyze the pattern of economic inequality we used income data to graph Lorenz Curves and calculate the Gini coefficient for each city over time. In the case study for Buffalo, we will analyze the impact of the implemented development strategies on economic inequality and equity as a whole. Policy recommendations grew from this analysis with the goal to increase economic equality as well as social/economic equity.

Calculating Location Quotients Data regarding employment and GDP for each city was taken from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

National level employment statistics were also taken from the BEA. Years for which the data was analyzed were 2001-2018 for GDP and 2016-2018 for employment. Due to some unreported employment sectors, estimations were made for sectors that were unreported in 2016, 2017, and 8

2018. In order to create consistency across employment and GDP statistics, after job estimates were calculated, “Farm employment” was added to “Forestry, fishing, and related activities” to create a category called “Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related activities.”

The method for estimating jobs for the missing sectors for Albany consisted of calculating the average percentage of employment occupied by “Management of companies and enterprises” in the available years (2001-2013), then multiplying total employment by this number. This gave us an estimate for the number of jobs in the “Management of companies and enterprises” sector for the year 2017. The one missing sector, “Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services” was calculated through subtraction.

To estimate the missing job numbers in Syracuse a linear regression of the ratio of industry jobs to total jobs for both “Educational services” and “Health care and social assistance” was calculated.

Using this formula from the linear regression, estimated values for 2015 were calculated. The estimated 2015 value was used for 2016 in both cases. To estimate the two remaining job sectors (“Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction” and “Forestry, fishing, and related activities”) the sum of known and estimated job numbers was taken and subtracted from total employment. The remainder was used in combination with the average ratio of forestry to mining jobs to calculate the number of jobs in both industries.

To calculate Location Quotient, the number of jobs in a specific sector in (ei) in Buffalo is divided by total employment (e) in Buffalo. The same ratio at the national level is calculated by dividing the number of jobs in a specific sector in the nation (Ei) by the total number of jobs in the nation (E).

To calculate LQ, the local ratio (ei/e) is divided by the national ratio (Ei/E). Written algebraically this is, LQ = ((ei/e)/(Ei/E).

Calculating GDP Coefficients Gross domestic product data for each city was collected from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in 2012 chained dollars for the years 2001-2018. In order to calculate the GDP coefficients that are used in our PICS analysis, the annual GDP for each sector from 2001-2018 was plotted on a scatter plot and a single order linear regression was run and a trend line plotted for each sector. The coefficient of the independent variable (year) is used as the GDP Coefficient. This coefficient is used as an estimate for how much a given sector is growing (in dollars) per year.

Inequality Along with conceptualzing equity through economic models, our team interpreted our regional, macro-economic approach as a lens through which equity could reach another level of policy. In discussion, solutions to economic equity often surrounded around hyper local solutions, however our team also considered how regional initiatives and policies could integrate equitable philosophy.

Economic equity does not necessarily belong just to the most local or most national level, this report can help expand a broader discussion of equity among the regional level planning and development.

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Common measures of income inequality are Lorenz curves and Gini coefficients. A Lorenz curve is a graphic representation of the share of aggregate income by quintile for a given geography.

The Gini coefficient is a number between 0 and 1 that indicates the level of economic inequality in a given geography. In order to calculate the Gini Index for each metropolitan statistical area, we first needed to graph Lorenz Curves. To graph the Lorenz curves, we collected data from the American Community Survey (ACS) which showed the share of aggregate income by quintile in the metropolitan statistical areas for Albany, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse. The ACS estimates used were from 2008 (3-year estimates), 2013 (5-year estimates), and 2018 (5-year estimates).

Using these data, scatter plots were created for each city and each year of the ACS. Sixth-degree polynomial trend lines were graphed and for all trend lines fitted to the data, R2 was equal to near 1. The trend lines connecting the data points are used as the Lorenz Curves.

To calculate the Gini Coefficients, the area bounded by the graph and the X-axis from 0 to 100 was calculated. Once calculated, this value (B) was subtracted from 5000 (total around bounded by the line of perfect equality), to get a third value (A). “A” was then divided by “C” to get the Gini Index.

All Gini indices were below the national average (Gini Coefficient Value table).

Studio Overview In 2011 under the leadership of Governor Cuomo, a new regional approach to economic development was implemented to create a targeted, comprehensive and integrated system connecting the state to region specific leadership. This included the formation of ten regional economic development councils that were tasked with creating region specific economic strategies that address local workforce development, region specific industries and local infrastructure improvement. Both in planning and initial execution, Cuomo’s strategy embodies some of the nation’s leading thoughts in state economic development, especially the emphasis on region-specific strategies tied to regional industrial clusters.1 The advantage of this approach has been that the state can focus on region specific approaches based on their unique economic climate and specialization, which facilitates growth in entire industry sectors and closely related sectors rather than the more myopic firm by firm approach to economic development.

The underlying framework to this new regional approach has been sparked by the work conducted

by Harvard Business School professor and business strategist Michael Porter. In his published work, The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Porter argues that regions rather than nations are the true competitive units of the global economy. Regions in turn have distinct clusters of firms, including primary producers and a myriad of support firms and institutions that allow the region to compete successfully.2 One method used to assess a region’s competitiveness is to apply Porter’s “diamond analysis,” which identifies four sets of factors; factor conditions (human/financial capital, infrastructure and physical resources) demand conditions (quality and sophistication of customers that can drive innovation and increased productivity), related and supporting industries (firm specialization and related services) and context for firm strategy and rivalry. The focus on clusters rather than firms using this analytical framework encourages state and local agencies to focus on public and quasi-public goods that greatly affect linked and related businesses.

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For the purposes of this studio, the NYS Regional Economic Development Council (REDC) plans and their underlying strategies were thoroughly analyzed and discussed to contextualize the PICS (Pioneering, Investing, Converting, Strengthening) Analysis. Using location quotient and GDP, PICS analysis aims to track the change in conditions of urban industry sectors throughout the lifetime of the NYS REDCs. The overall objective of this course of study is to identify region-specific industrial specialization and determine strategies as they relate to changes in those industries over time. Ultimately, this undertaking serves to provide another useful tool that can provide further context for economic development strategy and direct focus towards linked business and workforce development.

Observing this continuing growth in cluster projects, analysts at the Brookings Institute argue that the nation is now at a “cluster moment” that can make a substantial economic contribution at a time of “deep economic uncertainty, fiscal crisis, partisan gridlock and necessary governance reform.3 Now more than ever, with the COVID-19 pandemic battering the economy, cluster-based approaches to economic development can provide a policy framework that is more grounded in the day-to-day exchanges between real companies and their localities, the agglomeration of technologies, innovation and entrepreneurship as well as the creation of more stable and longterm jobs and workforce. With this in mind, the aim of this report is to demonstrate current and innovative methods and tools that help identify and communicate historic, current and prospective conditions of the urban economy and direct policy to address the issues that may be overlooked such as the challenge of equity in a changing economy.

For advocates of cluster development their emphasis on leading sectors, innovative technology, entrepreneurship and long-term growth sometimes ignores or downplays immediate job needs in the region, especially for low-income workers and communities.4 Using a case study of Buffalo as a platform, this studio seeks to highlight the importance of embedding equity-oriented policies within a regional growth strategy, and not just calling for “redistribution or a narrow focus on very small communities not viewed through the lens of regional economic strengths and growth.”5

11

2. Study Area This study is focused on investigating economic development opportunities for 4 cities along the New York State I-90 corridor; Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany. Through the analysis of economic clusters, REDC strategies, and economic profiles for New York State (NYS), we propose a series of development and policy recommendations that will leverage economic growth through strategic investments that amplify equitable outcomes.

Buffalo

Rochester

Syracuse Albany

Albany The capital region is nationally recognized for its emergent, cutting-edge R&D, government presence, and its rich diversity of arts and cultural experiences. The Capital Region Economic Development Council (CREDC) is about catalyzing economic growth, but it is also about inclusive growth. In order to advance the new state priorities of child care and environmental justice, the CREDC has worked with the Capital District Child Care Council (CDCCC) and New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) to study the local needs and challenges within these fields.

The CREDC also engages in numerous placemaking initiatives such as Redburn Development’s $78 million renovations of prominent downtown Albany properties. It is estimated that this development project will bring 450 new residents downtown and spur growth of local businesses and restaurants within areas of downtown that have been designated opportunity zones. The CREDC also oversaw the University at Albany’s $60 million transformation project of the Albany High School Building into the new College of Engineering and Applied Sciences. Additional placemaking projects include the numerous downtown revitalization initiatives including; Schenectady’s State Street buildings; in Saratoga Springs Performing Arts Center; and downtown projects in Glens Falls, Hudson, and Albany.

Research and development specifically in the health and life sciences continues to drive key regional clusters. In fiscal 2018, the region’s life science cluster received $62 million in awards from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), up 13.5 percent over the past year and the highest level of NIH funding since fiscal 2013. In fiscal 2017, R&D spending at Capital Region colleges and universities increased by 5.9 percent to $598 million. New data from the National Center of Sciences and Engineering Statistics also revealed that in fiscal 2015 the Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA was one of only 47 metros nationwide—and three in New York—in which businesses spent more than $1 billion on R&D. Employment in the life sciences cluster continues to be a point of strength within the region with R&D, increasing by 56.4 percent and related business and commercialization by 5 percent since 2011.

12

Within the CREDC’s five-step action plan, workforce development is a primary objective, which is supported by the multitude of projects designed to bolster the region’s talent pipeline many of which have been implemented over the past year. Hudson Valley Community College’s $14.5 million Gene F. Haas Center for Advanced Manufacturing Skills (75342), has helped secure the region’s position as a national leader in training for advanced manufacturing jobs. This is further supported by the analysis conducted using historical trends in LQ data for employment. Efforts through the Veteran Connect Center have also sought to retain and support local veterans participating in the regional workforce.

The region’s tech clusters also show strong growth trends and clustering strategy between tech and life sciences have made the Capital Region a leader in biotechnology. In the life sciences cluster (university research, private R&D), employment has increased by 7.2 percent over the past year.

Capital Region firms and institutions received 6 percent more from the National Institute of Health funding, and local colleges and universities invested 2 percent more on life sciences R&D. Within this biotech ecosystem, the cultivation and facilitation of innovation has been a key priority. In 2018, Innovate 518 assisted more than 300 startups, and the Center for Economic Growth and Biomedical Acceleration and Commercialization Center assisted dozens more in the tech field. In the end, the opportunity agenda which provides help to improve economic opportunity, education, public safety, government reform and fairness for New Yorkers of all races, genders, and ethnicities, several programs expanded their reach over the past year. Such as the Community Loan Fund of the Capital Region, which provided $203,854 in loans to minority and women-owned businesses, as well as businesses located in low-income census tracts in late 2018 and early 2019.

Syracuse Since the inception of the Regional Economic Development Councils in 2011, New York State has invested over $5.2 Billion into the Central New York region, which align to four interconnected strategic initiatives; Workforce development, placemaking, tradable sectors and innovation. The three primary strategic goals as identified by the CNYREDC include: strengthening targeted industry concentrations that leverage unique economic assets, improving competitiveness in and connections to regional, national and global economies and revitalizing the region’s urban cores, main streets and neighborhoods.6 Over the course of the lifetime of the CNY regional economic development council the region has experienced some positive local and regional economic trends including a drop in unemployment rates from 8.3% to 3.5%, a 3.4% increase in private sector jobs and 15.7% increase in private-sector wages as well as a larger increase in tourism; up 18.4% from 2011 meaning an estimate of 13.6 million tourists to the region.

Some of the most dramatic changes to the region as a result of this new economic development strategy has been experienced in Syracuse. A stroll up Warren Street reveals New York State investments that gave the downtown a much-needed face lift and brought renewed life to historic buildings. As a result, downtown living and recreating have become magnets of occupancy in many buildings that just recently were abandoned or dilapidated.7 Additionally, the CNYREDC has identified Syracuse’s unique advancement in the Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) technology sector. Historically, Syracuse has been a leading hub in transportation, and warehousing sectors but 13

in recent decades has experienced a decline in both sectors as manufacturing and wholesale firms left the region. In response to these economic shifts, the Central NY region has sought to redefine itself as a global leader in UAS to match the rapid pace of global technological advancement.

Recent successes include the completion of the UTM Corridor (one of the only ones in the world) development of NUSTAR and contributing to what will be the first drone-delivered food.8 In neighboring Madison County, a long-standing state agricultural hub, the past decade has seen the transformation and redevelopment of value-added agricultural projects that have created countless jobs and re-shaped agribusiness to embrace the future of farming and food-processing. The GrowNY business competition is one of the many instruments used to promote the technological advancement of the agricultural sector. A $15 million dollar, multi-regional competition, the GrowNY initiative seeks to cultivate an enduring food and agricultural innovation cluster that will not only improve the competitiveness of the region but will also establish strong economic links to the neighboring Finger Lakes and Southern Tier regions creating an aggregated multi-regional agricultural cluster. Additionally, Green Empire Farms is constructing up to four phases of new greenhouses in Madison County to facilitate large-scale growth of strawberries, peppers, cucumbers and tomatoes to be sold throughout New York State and the Eastern Seaboard.9 After almost a decade of unabated economic growth and success the Central NY regional strategy continues to emphasize the growth of easy-access job centers, sustainable infrastructure, and vibrant central business districts. In addition to tracking these and numerous other projects and strategies the CNYREDC moving forwards seeks to address the following priorities; work with local businesses and communities to identify childcare needs and develop potential solutions, create an economic and environmental justice strategy, support community investment in placemaking and downtown revitalization and support the workforce development initiative.10 Along with these four state-wide priorities the CNYREDC has identified seven region-specific strategic drivers that will continue to mark economic growth and improvement within the region. They are as follows; access to economic opportunity, agribusiness, entrepreneurship, manufacturing, transportation/ infrastructure and exporting logistics, tourism and unmanned aerial systems (UAS). Efforts to prioritize these key strategic drivers demonstrate the CNYREDC’s commitment to building the region through strong industrial clusters and inter-linked business development strategies.

Rochester Rochester NY, part of the Finger Lakes Regional Economic Development Council’s (FLREDC) jurisdiction, has been able to capitalize on its geographic location, on the shore of Lake Ontario.

Historically one of the U.S.’ first boomtowns, Rochester’s economy has experienced the benefit of being a midway point between Buffalo & Syracuse (Two of the four study cities) making it a pillar of the Upstate New York intra-regional economy. In an effort to capitalize on the recent restructuring and growth of Upstate New York’s economy, the FLREDC has identified three key industries for investment due to their local strength and regional specialization: ‘optics, photonics, & imaging’, ‘agriculture & food production’, and ‘next-generation manufacturing’.

Within each of these industry sectors, there are several sub-categories of specialization that local investment seeks to grow within the region. Within the optics, photonics, and imaging 14

sector, investments will bolster the production of imaging technology, lasers, sensors, and display technologies. The wine industry within the Finger Lakes region falls within Agriculture & Food Production, along with craft beverage companies, agro-tourism, ag-tech, ag-research, and sustainable farming production. The FLREDC also seeks to leverage Next Generation Manufacturing, Healthcare & Life Sciences, and Software & IT. The FLREDC has been funding, leading and organizing many projects that target these regional assets, including a number of investments into educational institutions, the Eastman Business Park, agricultural systems, and a number of infrastructural improvements that will benefit the economy.

With the establishment of the Regional Economic Development Councils, the Finger Lakes region has made great strides by increasing jobs, lowering the unemployment rate, increasing tourism, and private investment. New York State has leveraged almost a half of a billion dollars into the Finger Lakes Region as of 2019, throughout the eight counties within the region. Priority initiatives within the region include the Eastman Business park, which is an innovation district West of the Genesee River in Rochester, Downtown Revitalization Initiatives in Geneva, Batavia, Penn Yan, and Seneca Falls, and the Roc the Riverway initiative, which aims to revitalize the Genesee River Corridor in Downtown Rochester.

Buffalo The Western New York Regional Economic Development Council has identified three “sector strategies for prosperity.” These are “Advanced Manufacturing,” “Health and Life Sciences,” and “Tourism.” Targeted investment in these tradable sectors leverages competitive, specialized industry clusters providing an opportunity for smart growth implementation, increased entrepreneurship and workforce development.

As the economy shifted in the late 1970’s and 1980’s, Buffalo experienced the loss of traditional manufacturing jobs, high labor costs and rapid suburbanization. As a result, there was a seismic shift away from manufacturing in the Buffalo area and annual GDP for manufacturing in the region steadily declined. Despite the multi-decade decline, since the early 2010’s the Buffalo Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has seen a re-invigoration of its strong manufacturing presence (averaging an LQ of 1.19 from 2016-2018). Considering Buffalo’s historical legacy, existing infrastructure and job market for manufacturing, the strategic focus on “Advanced Manufacturing” seeks to leverage one of Buffalo’s strong tradable sectors providing the opportunity to bolster the region’s export of goods and services, which can stimulate wage growth and economic expansion. The goal of WNY REDC is to increase the number of jobs in this sector. The state awarded $750 million for the construction of Tesla’s GigaFactory 2 at Riverbend in South Buffalo in exchange for a guarantee of at least 5,000 jobs (later renegotiated to 1,460). Empire State Development has also invested $1.04 million in International Imaging Materials, Inc. and TMP Technologies Inc., which are expected to generate about 30 new manufacturing jobs. Due to its position on the PICS model, based on GDP coefficient and LQ by industry employment, the manufacturing sector represents a Pioneering industry.

Tourism has also been identified as a key industry in the WNYREDC’s regional strategy due to the 15

many cultural, historical and natural assets within the region. Both the food services and arts & entertainment sectors have relatively weak LQs (1.09 and 0.98 respectively), but they have both seen steady increases in GDP year after year. With regional tourist attractions such as Niagara Falls and Canal Side amongst numerous others, Western New York offers unique tourist destinations that in turn promote its food services, recreational industries and accommodation businesses. The major projects undertaken by the state in an effort to increase tourism to the area include the restoration of the Darwin Martin complex (as well as Graycliff Estate) and expanded Niagara Falls Parks programming. The restoration of the Darwin Martin complex is expected to double the annual number of visitors from 40,000 to 80,000 and generate nearly $20 million for the region and state.

The Niagara Falls Parks programming is quite extensive, involving the removal of the Robert Moses Parkway, both North and South, and the consequent development of trail systems totaling over $60 million. Due to the position of the tourism sector on the PICS model, tourism is a strengthening industry.

In addition to tourism and advanced manufacturing, the WNYREDC has worked to leverage anchor institutions and pivoted to research and development in the “Health and Life Sciences” sector. The development of the Medical Corridor is the physical manifestation of the municipal prioritization of this industrial sector. While the MSA does not have an exceptionally strong LQ (1.15), the coefficient of GDP growth for this sector is very high. The highlighted businesses in this sector are Albany Molecular Research Institute, Athenex, and the Buffalo Institute for Genomics, all of which are located in the Medical Corridor (two of which are in the Conventus building). Through Empire State Development the state invested $25 million to renovate the sixth floor of the Conventus building for Athenex. With regard to AMRI, Empire State Development asserts that, “A $50 million State investment in AMRI will leverage $200 million in private sector investment.”11 Due to the position of the Health and Life Sciences sector on the PICS model, the health and life sciences sector is also a strengthening industry.

Workforce Development

16

Tradable Sectors

Placemaking

Innovation

Pioneering Mid-term (4-7 years) Negative GDP Coefficient High LQ (above 1.0)

Location Quotient

P.I.C.S Panel — Explained

+

Strategy Maintain or grow

Strategy Shift product/service to meet market demand

-

Strengthening Short-term (0-3 years) Positive GDP Coefficient High LQ (above 1.0)

+

LQ > 1

GDP Coefficient

LQ < 1

Converting Long-term (7+ years) Negative GDP Coefficient Low LQ (below 1.0)

Investing Mid-term (4-7 years) Positive GDP Coefficient Low LQ (below 1.0)

Strategy Use existing assets to shift to new market

Strategy Incentivize job growth

0

17

3. CITY ANALYSIS Albany Employment by Industry The economy of Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY employs 449k people. The largest industries in AlbanySchenectady-Troy, NY are Health Care & Social Assistance (67,613 people), Educational Services (51,251 people), and Retail Trade (48,239 people).

The labor market experienced a gradual increase, from 2016 to 2017, growing at a rate of 1.26%, from 47.6K employees to 48.2K employees. Industries with significant numbers of jobs include health care & social assistance with 9477, public administration 5929, and educational services 5644. Growth in these sectors is supported by the Capital Region’s industry cluster strategy and PICS model results.

Location Quotient

Figure 3.1 | Source: DataUsa, American Community Survey, 2018 1-year estimates

The top five LQ’s by industry employment are Educational Services, Government and government enterprises, Health Care, Finance and insurance, and Professional & Scientific, which all range from 1.0 to 1.8. In the past ten years, economic development efforts have brought more than $9 billion of investment to the City of Albany. The City's health care and educational institutions are investing and expanding significantly, and Downtown Albany has experienced a renaissance with $35 million in new residential units. Investment in industry clusters and placemaking has been vital to the growth of the regional economy by not only supporting business and research ventures but through the strengthening of talented workforce pipelines and attraction out-of-state talent through downtown revitalization.

GDP Analysis Albany is close to all major markets of the Northeast, has a highly educated and diverse workforce, and resides in a region that offers a mix of medium-sized urban, suburban, and rural communities.

It is home to 21 institutions of higher learning and recognized around the world for its research and development facilities — both public and private.

GDP per capita for Albany Metro Area (NY) was $52,499 in 2017. Albany Metro Area (NY) experienced an average growth rate of 0.57% from 2001. If past trends continue, the projected GDP per capita should reach $53,873 by 2022.

18

Albany MSA Percent Change GDP 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50%

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Figure 3.2 | Source: Beauru of Economic Analysis

The Historical GDP trends describe the rate of change for each industry by GDP. Discussion of historic trends provide the necessary context and scope of the Capital Regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy and help to identify and support the key strategies discussed in the Capital Regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s REDC. Additionally, the GDP & LQ bubble graph helps to illuminate the relationship between employment and GDP by industry sector in a format that can be applied to the PICS analysis model.

Albany's economy, along with that of the Capital Region as a whole, is heavily dependent on the government employment. Unsurprisingly, the government sector produces the highest GDP output, and its value remains stable. In the future, this economic sector will continue to be a cornerstone of the regional economy. GDP value related to health care and social assistance has increased in recent years, and there has been more investment activity within this sector in recent years. For example, the new state budget includes $150 million to build a laboratory in the Albany, New York, area that will consolidate the Health Department Wadsworth Center labs. Projects such as this aim to promote better local health care and improve medical administrative infrastructure creating more jobs and improving local health outcomes.

Top 5 Industries by Percent GDP, Albany MSA, 2018

30% 20% 10% 0%

2002

2006

Finance and insurance Real estate

2010

2014

2018

Health care Government Professional Services

Figure 3.3 | Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The education service sector is also responsible for a very significant GDP output. In Albany, there are several universities, training centers, colleges and career development programs. These institutions offer stable local employment and cultivate a talented workforce pipeline for some of the regions emergent industries.

The five bottom industries are Wholesale trade, manufacturing, construction, utilities and agriculture. Even though these industries create lower GDP values each year, they are still meaningful for the local economy. Of note is the decline in wholesale trade, which has experienced a considerable loss in jobs from 2004 - 2010. In 2006, manufacturing GDP value reached a peak, and has experienced a subsequent decline in recent years. Despite this, the Albany economy has pivoted to more specialized manufacturing as it relates to its biotech and health and life sciences. In 2017, R&D spending at Capital Region colleges and universities increased by 5.9 percent to $598 million. New data from the National Center of Sciences and Engineering Statistics also revealed that in 2015 the Albany-Schenectady-Troy MSA was one of 19

only 47 metros nationwide in which businesses spent more than $1 billion on R&D. Utilities have had relatively low real GDP but in 2018 the workforce comprised roughly 555,000 jobs. The figure below highlights location quotients for employment by industry in Albany (2018).

PICS Analysis The Figure above displays the relationship between GDP coefficient and Location Quotient for employment by industry. Similar to SWOT analysis, this graphic representation of data helps identify the economic climate by industry. For instance, the upper-right industries such as Education, Health Care, and F.I.R.E are experiencing both high GDP and employment rates compared to national averages suggesting that these industries are strengthening. This conclusion is supported by the review of the Capital Region REDC, which has been prioritizing investment into these specific industry sectors.

The government in the Albany area has a very strong location quotient meaning that employment in the government sector is much higher than the national average. This is quite reasonable given that Albany is the state capital. Despite the high employment rate, GDP for the government sector is relatively low, which is why it falls on the pioneering side of the PICS analysis. Initiatives like downtown revitalization, facilitation of smart growth and public-private partnerships are to name a few of the many strategies the region is using to stimulate higher GDP output in the government services sector.

Converting industries are industries that are experiencing decline, which is represented by both low GDP and location quotient. Industries such as construction, need to make more significant changes to abate further industry decline. Related to the aforementioned strategies to stimulate the government sectorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GDP output, as illustrated in the network diagram, construction is strongly related to the government. Following this conclusion, investment in downtown revitalization, strategic placemaking and large-scale redevelopment projects can stimulate the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s construction industry. In effect, investment in one industry sector could have a strong positive effect on another closely connected industry. A list of projects that are achieving such an aim can be found in the appendix section of this report.

Albany is an attractive city for industry because of it is equidistant to the Canadian border, Boston and New York City. For more than a century, manufacturing and technology have been driving the Capital Regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy. Backed by numerous R&D centers (Colleges of Nanoscale Science & Engineering at SUNY Polytechnic Institute, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, GE Global Research, Albany Medical Center and the Pharmaceutical Research Institute) and local biotech companies the Capital Region can maintain its competitive edge in the global marketplace by continuing to cluster investment in Technology, health & life sciences and related high-tech manufacturing.

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Albany PICS Panel Location Quotient

2

1.8

1.6

Pioneering (Mid-term)

Strengthening (Short-term)

1.4

1.2

GDP CoefďŹ cent -$100M

-$80M

-$60M

-$40M

-$20M

0

$20M

$40M

$60M

$80M

$100M

0.8

0.6

0.4

Converting (Long-term)

Agriculture

0.2

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate

Mining

Real Estate

Utilities

Finance and Insurance

Construction

Professional and Business Services

Manufacturing

Professional Services

Wholesale Trade

Management of Companies

Retail Trade

Administrative

Transportation and Warehousing Information

Investing (Mid-term)

Accommodation and Food Services Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Other Services Government

Education and Healthcare Educational Services Healthcare

Figure 3.4 | Source: Employment and GDP data from Bureau of Economic Analysis

21

Network Analysis Health Care

Accomodation, Food Service

Real Estate

Agriculture Finance

Management Professional Services

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Mining

Government

Transportation

Retail Trade

Information

Construction

Arts, Entertainment

Educational Services

Utilities

Administration

Cluster Specialization Legend Strong cluster above 90th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) ≥ 95th percentile & Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Strong cluster above 75th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) 90th-94th percentile, Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Other specialized clusters (LQ > 1.0)

Next closest cluster not meeting above criteria

Figure 3.5 | Source: Created with: NodeXL Pro (http://nodexl.codeplex.com) from the Social Media Research FoundaCreated with NodeXL Pro (http://nodexl.codeplex.com) from the Social Media Research Foundation (http://www.smrfoundation.org) tion (http://www.smrfoundation.org)

In this network analysis, modeled after the US Cluster Mapping strategy (See Fig 3.5), circles represent industries, colors represent location quotients by industry employment and lines represent their linkages (See Fig. 3.5). Green circles indicate a sector in the 75th percentile of LQ for the city, blue indicates 90th percentile, and yellow indicates an LQ greater than 1.0 A couple of key industries identified in both the PICS and network analysis include; health care, education services and finance. Since 2011, the Capital Region’s REDC has identified FIRE industries, health and life sciences and education as key sectors in regional economic development.

The Albany area is home to numerous colleges and universities, and other educational centers that offer services like career training. Education services LQ is 1.8, which means it's higher than the national average. The following programs and initiatives name a few of the ongoing projects to leverage these industry clusters within the region.

22

Income Inequality Analysis Percent Change Income by Quintile: Albany

11.1%

10

4.9%

Percent Change

5

0

-2.0% -5

-4.3% -6.4%

-10

20

-10%

40

60

80

Quintiles % change (2013-2018)

% change (2007-2013)

100

Top 5%

% change (2007-2018)

Figure 3.6 | Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Albany Related & Supporting Industries

Factor Conditions

R & D to Commercialization Port of Albany Expansion Port of Albany Big Lift Capital Offshore WInd Supply Chain Fulfillment Hub Expansion

Factor Conditions

Demand Conditions

Demand Conditions

Related & Supported Industries

Strategy, Structure & Rivalry

The region’s tech clusters remain strong growth engines and continue to meet market demand for Biomedical, AI and advanced engineering. Region’s Start-Ups are also showing signifiant growth

Public & Private Universities AI Center of Excellence META Center Wadsworth Lab AI Hardware Center Healthcare Education Services Finance & Insurance Government

Strategy, Structure & Rivalry Technical Support to Start-ups Life Sciences Cluster Next-Tech Lift-Off Innovation Hot Spot

Figure 3.7 | Source: Michael E. Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (1990)

23

SYRACUSE The City of Syracuse is located at the intersection of Interstate 90 and Route 81 in Central New York, south of the Adirondack Mountains and north of Binghamton, New York. The City of Syracuse is part of the Central New York Regional Economic Development Council (CNYREDC), a subsidiary of Empire State Development (ESD), which has funded many development projects in the Syracuse Metro Area over the last two decades. The City of Syracuse, in conjunction with state development entities, have worked to transition from a traditional, manufacturing based economy to an economy powered by Finance, Insurance, Real Estate (FIRE) based industries. The following will explore the City of Syracuse and its economic demographics, the city’s current and historical Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial location quotient analysis to understand how Syracuse industries, current industrial climate, and finally, an analysis of the PICS panel for Syracuse industries. This analysis of Syracuse’s industrial climate will present, and work to inform on Syracuse’s economic climate and conclude with analysis that prefaces a strategic framework that will be applied to a more in-depth case study of Buffalo.

Employment by Industry The chart below offers a visualization for employment by industry within the Syracuse Metropolitan Statistical Area. An important distinction to make clear for interpreting the figure below, is that although many of the employees in the chart may live in Syracuse, they may work outside of the municipal borders, as census data is inherently tied to residential addresses, not work addresses.12 From 2016 to 2017, employment in Syracuse, NY grew at a rate of 0.118%, increasing slightly, but hovering below 6,000 employees within municipal borders.

Figure 3.9 | Source: DataUSA, American Community Survey, 2018 1-year estimates

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Economic Data Key Industry Employers Employees SUNY Upstate Medical University 6,305 Syracuse University 4,640 Wegmans 3,775 New Process Gear Inc. 3,400 St. Joseph’s Hospital Health Center 3,365 P&C Foods Markets 2,500 Lockheed Martin 2,300 Crouse Hospital 2,200 Loretto 2,115 Niagara Mohawk - A National Grid Co. 2,010

With a population of approximately 145,000, the City of Syracuse is the fifth largest city in the State of New York. The population of the city is 51% White, 28% Black or African American, and 9% Latino/Latina or Hispanic. The median household income for Syracuse is $34,716, which is significantly less than the median annual income across the United States, $61,937. Despite this, the median income has shown a 6.15% annual growth since the median annual income in 2016 which was $32,704.13

Figure 3.8 | Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

In 2017, income inequality, represented by the Gini calculation, in New York was 0.499. Income inequality had a 0.362% growth from 2016 to 2017. Therefore, age distribution between 2016 and 2017 became more unequal. The 2017 Gini index for New York was higher than the national average of 0.479. In other words, wages are distributed less evenly in New York than in comparison to the national average (Gini Index for New York State was used from ACS PUMS 5-year estimate).

These factors will be integral to the formulation of future, industry-based development strategies that seek to include policy recommendations that address economic equity for local regions.14 In 2017, Syracuse had a 16% rate of individuals in “deep” poverty or below the poverty rate and 33% of individuals in poverty or deep poverty, or in other words, living at or below the poverty rate.15

GDP As of 2017, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita was $44,643. This is the highest GDP per capita for Syracuse with the lowest GDP per capita at approximately $40,000 with stagnant years ranging in the $43,000 range between 2007 and 2013.16

Location Quotient Location quotients for the City of Syracuse indicate that industry specializations are in Utilities, Educational Services, and Wholesale trade. The utility industry has an LQ of 3.2, educational services with an LQ of 1.7, and wholesale trade with an LQ of 1.2. This indicates that these three industries have higher employment rates in Syracuse when compared to national averages. This is supported by the aforementioned employer data that cites the highest employers in the City of Syracuse: such as the government for utilities (the City of Syracuse owns utilities) and Syracuse University (Education).

25

Percent of Total GDP by Industry Although an overview of Gross Domestic Product was described for the City of Syracuse, engaging with another level of GDP data that explores individual industries is critical for understanding where Syracuse industries eventually fall on the PICS Panel. The GDP economic data was compiled from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) databases and analyzed GDP for each industry in Syracuse for all years from 2001 to 2011.

The percent of total GDP by industry from 2011 - 2018 helps to understand the composition of industries within the Syracuse economy. Industries with the highest and most stable percent of total GDP include: government, utilities, construction, manufacturing, and the educational services sectors. The industries that increased their share of percent of total GDP include, finance and insurance, and the professional & technical services sectors.

Overall, the top five highest producing GDP producing industries in the Syracuse Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) from 2001 through 2018 are government, real estate, utilities, manufacturing, and finance. Healthcare is currently the sixth largest industry in terms of GDP. The relatively high GDP for the utilities industry in the greater Syracuse Metropolitan Statistical Area, which also includes the City of Oswego, is partially attributed to the two nuclear plants. The Nine Mile Point Nuclear Generating Plant and the Fitzpatrick Nuclear Power Plant in Oswego, together with the Ginna Nuclear Generating Station in Wayne County (in the Rochester MSA), contributed over $3 billion to the GDP of New York State in 2015 (Metropolitan Syracuse, 2020). The Carr Street Natural Gas Plant in Syracuse also contributes to the utilities sector GDP in the Syracuse MSA. The government sector is likely the largest GDP industry in Syracuse because it is the county seat of Onondaga County and owns the Metropolitan Syracuse Wastewater Treatment Plant which treats an average of 84 million gallons of wastewater per day.17 The finance and insurance, as well as real-estate industries have experienced an increase in GDP since 2002. Despite being the both the smallest city and MSA population in this study the GDP generated from the real estate industry has grown steadily.

PICS Analysis As previously mentioned in this report, the PICS Panel seeks to identify potential industries or clusters of industries that could benefit from strategic investment strategies whether that be strengthening infrastructure, creating more jobs or promoting innovation through entrepreneurship. Although detailed strategy recommendations will only be developed for the reportâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s case study, this section can assist policymakers and economic development officials by illustrating a reproducible analysis framework that can be applied to any city or MSA. This method serves as a guide in the assessment of current industrial development strategies and whether those strategies need to be adapted after consideration of the relationship between GDP and location quotient.

The Syracuse PICS analysis panel (figure 3.10), describes the state of each industry within the Syracuse economy within the context of the relationship between location quotient and GDP. As 26

Location Quotient

Syracuse PICS Panel

3.5

3

2.5

Pioneering (Mid-term)

Strengthening (Short-term)

2

1.5

1

GDP CoefďŹ cent -$60M

-$40M

-$20M

0

$20M

$40M

0.5

Converting (Long-term)

Investing (Mid-term) 0

Agriculture

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate

Mining

Real Estate

Utilities

Finance and Insurance

Construction

Professional Services

Wholesale Trade

Managment of Companies

Transportation and Warehousing Information

Government

Professional and Business Services

Manufacturing Retail Trade

Other Services

Administrative Education and Healthcare Educational Services Healthcare

Figure 3.10 | Source: Employment and GDP data from Bureau of Economic Analysis

outlined in previous sections, this graphic analysis design helps to highlight industries that fall within the Pioneering, Investing, Converting and Strengthening framework, which can offer guidance in the formulation of economic development strategies. Considering industry based performance, industries with weak GDP and weak location quotient fall within the converting strategy quadrant. The industries that fall within the converting strategy, such as construction, call for economic development strategies that require a complete restructuring and rethinking of that 27

industry. The timeline for industries that fall within the converting quadrant is long-term and, therefore, Syracuse policymakers and those working toward economic development or redevelopment should initiate marginal changes in conversion industries over long periods of time.

With regards to mid-term economic development strategies, which include pioneering and investing strategies on the PICS panel. Pioneering strategies are associated with industries that have a high location quotient for employment but low GDP meaning that potential investment can spur innovation and technological advancement in those industries. Pioneering industries in the City of Syracuse are manufacturing and management of companies and enterprises.

Next in the PICS panel timeline is the investing economic development strategy panel. Industries that fall within this quadrant are considered industries that are doing well in terms of employment, but have a relatively lower GDP. For the City of Syracuse, the administrative and support sectors, as well as the professional, technical, and scientific sectors fall within the investing strategy quadrant and fall along on the mid-term of an economic development timeline. Finally, the fourth quadrant is associated with industries that have high GDP and high location quotients and therefore, are doing well within the economy and economic development strategies should include strategies that continue to capitalize and advance these industries.

The five key industries and their corresponding development strategy and strategy timeliness are provided in the table below:

Syracuse Timeline Strategy

Short-Term Strengthening

Mid-Term Pioneering

Utilities

Manufacturing

Mid-Term Investing

Long-Term

Industry Education

Administrative

Agriculture

Prof. Services

Industries that fall within the different strategies based on the relationship of GDP and location quotient by employment on the PICS panel align well with the current industrial economic climate as outlined in the discussion above. For example, the utility sector after location quotient and economic analysis, was considered a strong industry in Syracuse, New York. As expected with industries that have strong location quotients and GDP, utilities for Syracuse fall within the panel suggesting strategies that continue to strengthen this industry. In another circumstance, the manufacturing industry was evaluated as a struggling industry, yet has potential to strengthen with strategies that hold onto its current location quotient, but also help to increase revenues within the manufacturing industry. Specifically for Syracuse, this may include leveraging partnerships with the strong educational services industry to re-imagine or advance the manufacturing industry.

Importantly, the PICS panel analysis confirms that some of the economic development activities undertaken in the City of Syracuse are following a similar pattern expressed by this study, which is discussed in greater detail in the summary text of the chapter.

28

Network Analysis Health Care

Accomodation, Food Service

Real Estate

Agriculture Finance

Management Professional Services

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Mining

Government

Transportation

Retail Trade

Information

Construction

Arts, Entertainment

Educational Services

Administration

Utilities

Cluster Specialization Legend Strong cluster above 90th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) ≥ 95th percentile & Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Strong cluster above 75th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) 90th-94th percentile, Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Other specialized clusters (LQ > 1.0)

Next closest cluster not meeting above criteria

Figure 3.11 | Source: Created with: NodeXL from the Social Media Research FounCreated with NodeXL Pro (http://nodexl.codeplex.com) from thePro Social(http://nodexl.codeplex.com) Media Research Foundation (http://www.smrfoundation.org) dation (http://www.smrfoundation.org)

The industry network web portrays the relationships between industry sectors and distinguishes location quotient by employment. These findings based on the data gathered for this report, closely match research conducted by US Cluster Mapping.

29

Syracuse Factor Conditions Transportation & Infrastructure Exporting Logisitics Unmanned Aerial Systems Tourism Agri-business

Related & Supporting Industries SyracuseCoE Labs Genius NY Syracuse University CNYBAC Transportation Wholesale & Retail Health Care

Factor Conditions

Related & Supported Industries

Demand Conditions

Strategy, Structure & Rivalry

Demand Conditions Emergence of a rapdily expanding tech sector, a strong defense and UAS industry, new investment in agribusiness, and signiďŹ cant attention in the - regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest urban area, Syracuse, through Syracuse Surge, Blueprint 15, and an unprecedented investment from JP Morgan Chase.

Strategy, Structure & Rivalry Grow-NY Workforce Development Initiative Smart Cities Infrastrucutre Invesment CNY Rising Plan UTM Corridor

Figure 3.12 | Source: Michael E. Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (1990)

Percent Change Income by Quintile: Syracuse 5.3%

Percent Change

5

2.2%

0

-1.0% -1.7%

-2.5% -5

20

-8.3%

40 % change (2007-2013)

Figure 3.13 | Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

30

60

Quintiles % change (2013-2018)

80

100 % change (2007-2018)

Top 5%

Syracuse Analysis Overview & Conclusion Overall, the industrial economic development strategies and initiatives in Central New York do align with the analysis of the PICS panel for Syracuse, New York industries. The economic development completed, and in progress, bolster traditionally strong industries, and often partner with industries identified on our PICS panel as in-need of pioneering, investment, or conversion. The government and educational industries have played significant roles in development, as strong industries in Syracuse. Additionally, investments are being made into the professional, scientific, and technical and combining this with high-tech manufacturing. The following economic development initiatives help to summarize examples of regional strategy aligning with the PICS panel developed for Syracuse, New York.

New York Stateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Empire State Development (ESD) and the Central New York Regional Economic Development Council (CNYREDC), along with the City of Syracuse and other local and regional development organizations have worked to develop industrial goals and strategies with the intention of ensuring regional economic growth and prosperity. Regionally, the City of Syracuse has adopted economic development goals outlined by the Central New York Regional Economic Development Council (Central New York REDC). Including support of the local workforce through the Workforce Development Initiative, focus on childcare needs and solutions for the workforce, encourage placemaking, downtown revitalization, and community development, and finally, develop economic and environmental justice strategies. With the support of Empire State Development and local actors, the Central New York region has been able to realize development plans that are aimed at the above goals declared by the Central New York REDC. A number of partners at the community level work to implement economic development projects and provide investment support to existing projects.

In the effort to support the local workforce, CNYREDC partners are committed to supporting the regional and statewide efforts associated with the Workforce Development Initiative. The WDI offers workforce training through seventeen schools across Central New York, working with 70,000 students in Syracuse and surrounding region.18 Through the program, Work Train, CNYREDC works with the community to instill demand-driven workforce development within high-tech manufacturing sectors, technology, finance, investment and real estate. According to Brookings Institution, the City of Syracuse is forty-seventh in the ranking of US cities with the highest number of jobs within advanced, technology and software based industries.19 This ranking reflects a range of efforts that directly provide workforce to the advanced technology sectors, as well as indirect such as the goals of development agencies for the Syracuse region, as mentioned in the opening paragraph.

In terms of support for placemaking, community development, and downtown revitalization has seen investment through projects throughout the last two decades such as the restoration of Hotel Syracuse, the Old State Building Restoration, and the $3.25 million Syracuse Technology Garden, a business incubator for high-tech startups. A groundbreaking ceremony was held in June 2005 for the Syracuse Center of Excellence in Environmental and Energy Systems headquarters, a $25.5 million project designed to create jobs and promote investment in the Central New York 31

region. The 60,000-square-foot facility is expected to open in spring 2007. These projects, although different in specific intentional uses, support placemaking by rehabilitating specific buildings and the built environment in the surrounding area that increases both the aesthetic appeal and public and private use of the spaces.20 Additionally, higher education institutions in Syracuse also have contributed to development projects that follow similar aims such as workforce development, community development, and downtown revitalization. This coupling of higher education and CNYREDC economic development goals is clearly apparent in the development of Syracuse University’s (SU) building, The Warehouse.

The former Dunk & Bright warehouse in Armory Square was purchased by SU in 2005 and underwent renovations in 2008 to transform the warehouse into a multi-use space, with community art gallery, auditorium and classroom space. SU continues to work on building a three mile “Connective Corridor” linking the campus with downtown’s entertainment, arts and cultural venues. In total, $4.5 million in public and private funding has been committed.21 The healthcare sector has also helped to initiate work on a number of economic development strategies. University Hospital is expected to complete a $35 million children’s hospital in 2006.

Crouse Hospital is in the planning stages for a new $30 million operating room suite. Additionally, Syracuse Research Corp. is undergoing a $1.3 million, 16,000-square-foot expansion of headquarters in order to employ 65 new engineers.22 The Inner Harbor project is another community development and infrastructure project for the City, adapting the old barge canal terminal for recreational use.23

32

ROCHESTER As the heart of the Finger Lakes region, Rochester has been the focus of several redevelopment initiatives. Careful analysis of both GDP and Location Quotient have illuminated the progress of the FLREDC’s regional strategies and helped to identify industry clusters that could benefit from targeted investment strategies Applying these findings to the Pioneering, Investing, Converting, Strengthening (PICS) framework has provided a structured approach to industry-based strategy recommendations.

Employment by Industry In 2017, Rochester’s workforce grew at a rate of 1.62%, from 89.1k employees to 90.5k employees.

This workforce is most concentrated in the Health Care and Social Assistance (20,296), Educational Services (10,759), Retail Trade (10,722), Manufacturing (8,565) and Accommodation and Food Services (7,518). The sectors with the least employment are Real Estate and Rental Leasing (1,607), Utilities (305), Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (146), Management of Companies and Enterprises (10).

GDP Analysis From 2001 to 2018, Rochester has seen an overall growth of 14.3% in private industry GDP from $43,427,016 to $50,701,158. By industry, Rochester has had 11 industries with positive GDP slopes, and 9 with negative GDP slopes. The most notable industries with positive GDP slopes are: Real estate and rental and leasing ($178,795), Finance and insurance ($159,667), Administrative support, waste management, and remediation services ($93,827), Healthcare and social assistance ($92,170) and Educational services ($39,263). The industries with the worst-performing GDP slopes are: Manufacturing ($-261,866), Management of companies and enterprises ($-27,002), Construction ($-17,869), Other services ($-4,893) and Utilities ($-3,913).

Percent of Total GDP by Industry Manufacturing, government, health care, and real estate industries make up the largest share of total GDP. Industries that have a much smaller share are agriculture, mining, arts and entertainment, utilities, and transportation.

Location Quotient Analysis Educational services have a significantly stronger LQ (2.5) in Rochester than any other industry.

Manufacturing (1.37), management of companies (1.36), health care (1.25), and the retail trade (1.05) industries all have LQ’s greater than 1. Industries with the lowest LQ’s include; mining (.22), transportation (.54), and agriculture (.71).

33

PICS analysis Rochester PICS Panel 2.5

2

Pioneering (Mid-term)

Strengthening (Short-term) 1.5

LQ

1

-$300M

-$200M

-$100M

0

$100M

$200M

$300M

0.5

Investing (Mid-term)

Converting (Long-term) 0

GDP CoefďŹ cient Agriculture

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate

Mining

Real Estate

Arts and Entertainment

Utilities

Finance and Insurance

Other Services

Construction

Professional and Business Services

Manufacturing

Professional Services

Wholesale Trade

Management of Companies

Retail Trade

Administrative

Transportation and Warehousing Information

Education and Healthcare Educational Services Healthcare

Figure 3.14 | Source: Employment and GDP data from Bureau of Economic Analysis

34

Accommodation and Food Services

Government

After combining all the data presented, GDP and LQ for each industry in Rochester, a PICS analysis can be performed by graphing the data. Through this method, we can more clearly see what strategies would benefit each industry.

Strengthening Industries - LQ above 1, positive GDP slope Industries to be invested in for short term benefits are those that fall into the upper right quadrant of our PICS model. These industries tend to have strong location quotients, and positive GDP growth, indicating a need for these industries to continue to be developed in a way that will make them sustainable in each of the cities. In the Finger Lakes region and the Rochester Metropolitan Statistical Area these industries are ‘retail trade’, ‘health care’, and ‘education’.

Pioneering Industries - LQ above 1, negative GDP slope Pioneering industries are those that in each city have shown strong location quotients with declining GDP growth. It is evident that these industries have a good presence in each of the cities, and must be developed in a way that will bolster their growth to stabilize these sectors within the economy. ‘Manufacturing’ and ‘management of companies’ are each of the two industries that we have determined to be industries that must be developed based on their pioneering qualities.

Investing Industries - LQ below 1, positive GDP slope Investing industries are those with weak Location Quotients but have positive GDP growth, falling within the lower right quadrant. These are the second group of industries that we believe must be developed with intentions of stabilizing these sectors with midterm development strategies. In the Rochester MSA and greater region this is the most crowded set of industries, with eight sectors falling into this quadrant: Finance and insurance, Administrative support and waste management and remediation, Professional, scientific and technical services, Arts and entertainment and recreation, Information, Transportation and warehousing, Real estate, Accommodation

Converting Industries - LQ below 1, negative GDP slope Lastly, the converting industries are those that we believe need to have long term development strategies in place to benefit these sectors by converting current operations within these sectors.

Each of the industries within the lower left quadrant of our PICS model have weak Location Quotients and declining GDP growth. These sectors do not seem to be sustainable for the region to continue to invest in these industries as they are, converting strategies could help to carve new paths for each of these industries for potential future growth and strength in the region. ‘Construction’, ‘utilities’, ‘agricultural, forestry, fishing and hunting’, ‘mining quarrying and oil and gas extraction’, ‘wholesale trade’, ‘other services’, and ‘government services’ each fall into the converting quadrant.

35

Network Analysis The Rochester Industry Network Web is reflective of PICS analysis results, retail trade, healthcare, and management of companies have each performed well in the Finger Lakes region over the past decades, each being within the 75th percentile of LQs for Rochester. The employment strength of each of these industries is shown to strongly relate to industries that are within the 90th percentile meaning highest LQs within Rochester and highest in comparison to national averages.

The presence of Rochester Institute of Technology, University of Rochester, SUNY Brockport, Nazareth College, St. John Fisher, and SUNY Geneseo, to name just a few results in the strength of educational services in Rochester. These universities make up only a portion of the higher educational institutions, each attracting large sums of private investments, with the state-sponsored institutions attracting large sums of public investment as well. Rochester Institute of Technology, for instance, is vying for state grant funding for an expansion of their bio-microsystems programs, while the University of Rochester has been awarded one million dollars of funding toward their Georgian Institute for Data Science and five million dollars toward their Health Sciences Center for Computational Innovation Capital. These investments into higher educational institutions programs in turn strengthen linked industries as described in the network linkage diagram.

Health Care

Accomodation, Food Service

Real Estate

Agriculture Finance

Management Professional Services

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Mining

Government

Transportation

Retail Trade

Information

Construction

Arts, Entertainment

Educational Services

Administration

Utilities

Cluster Specialization Legend Strong cluster above 90th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) ≥ 95th percentile & Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Strong cluster above 75th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) 90th-94th percentile, Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Other specialized clusters (LQ > 1.0)

Next closest cluster not meeting above criteria

Figure 3.15 | Created with: NodeXL Pro (http://nodexl.codeplex.com) from the Social Media Research Foundation Created with NodeXL Pro (http://nodexl.codeplex.com) from the Social Media Research Foundation (http://www.smrfoundation.org) (http://www.smrfoundation.org)

36

Educational Services is among the highest LQ industries, despite there not being a strong linkage (indicated by a black line between the industries on the Industry Network Web) to any other high LQ industries, there is a strong linkage between Educational Services and Governmental sector.

Management, another high LQ industry, is strongly linked to the Finance sector, which although it is not strong in Rochester, it is one of the top five sectors based on GDP growth. Another moderate linkage (indicated by a gray line between each of the sectors) that is significant is between the healthcare sector and the Educational Services sector, this is significant due to these two sectors both being amongst the highest LQs and the sectors showing the most growth since 2001.

Our findings based on our Industry Network Webs are reflective of US Cluster Mapping that analyzes clusters of firms, while our Network Webs have been created as a tool to analyze Industries based on the NAICS classification.

Rochester Factor Conditions FLREDC Strategic Plan $500 million Upstate Revitalization Optics, Photonics & Imagining Next Gen Manufacturing Agriculture & Food Production Top Wine Region (Tourism)

Factor Conditions

Demand Conditions

Demand Conditions Rochester is gradually meeting the demand of smaller, high-growth firms leveraging tourism within the Finger Lakes region and inesting in its urban core.

Rochesterâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s investment strategy has been aimed to meet the demands for Software and IT professionals, agricultural experitse, entrepeneurs, optics,photonics and digital imaging.

Related & Supporting Industries Retail Trade Health Care Management of Companies Manufacturing Public & Private Universities

Related & Supported Industries

Strategy, Structure & Rivalry

Strategy, Structure & Rivalry Direct-Provider Business Support Tax Credits Direct Childcare Workforce Support Corporate Sponsorship ROC the Riverway Revitalize Rochester Fund Eastman Business Park Lake Ontario Resiliency & ED Initiative

Figure 3.16 | Source: Michael E. Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (1990)

37

Income Inequality Analysis Percent Change Income by Quintile: Rochester

9.1%

Percent Change

5

4.2%

0

-1.9%

-5

20

-6.8%

-5.2%

-5.6% 40 % change (2007-2013)

60

Quintiles % change (2013-2018)

80

100

Top 5%

% change (2007-2018)

Figure 3.17 | Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Rochester Analysis Overview & Conclusion With the above analysis of industrial economic development in the Finger Lakes region of New York State, it is evident that the Empire State Development initiatives for the region do align with our findings based on our Industry Network Web and PICS analysis. The Finger Lakes Regional Economic Development Council seeks to leverage the Next Generation Manufacturing, Healthcare & Life Sciences, and Software & IT industrial sectors to maintain continued economic growth both within the City of Rochester & the Finger Lakes Region. Having found that the strongest LQs for Rochester are in the Educational Services, Management, Manufacturing, and Health Care sectors, the initiatives that the FLREDC have underway will bolster the economy through these sectors greatly. Investments into educational institutions that have strong linkages to the healthcare industry, as well as engineering programs that will bolster the manufacturing of next-generation products in the ‘optics, photonics and imaging’ departments. The FLREDC has been directing funding into institutions and organizations that will help to carry the region into the future, the Eastman Business Park as a hub for innovation and commerce, investments into RIT, University of Rochester, and others to bolster the programs that educate students to be a part of the workforce within the region’s economy in these specific sectors.

Based on the PICS panel and analysis of industries, we were able to identify industries that can be considered either a Strengthening industry in the region to be invested in the short term, Pioneering and Investing industries to be invested in the mid-term, or lastly to be a Converting industry, with long term plans to convert weak sectors of the Finger Lakes economy. Strengthening industries have the characteristics of having strong LQs and growth in terms of GDP, in Rochester those are ‘retail trade’, ‘healthcare’, and ‘education’. Pioneering industries have a strong presence while having lackluster GDP growth, ‘manufacturing’ and ‘management of companies’ in the region have been found to fall into this category. Investing industries for mid-term economic development are wide38

ranging, where industries have shown growth in GDP numbers, but do not have as strong a presence in terms of LQ. This quadrant of our PICS analysis was quite crowded, with 9 industries falling into this category, these industries can be invested in a way that creates jobs while maintaining the production in terms of GDP in those industries. Lastly, the long term converting industries have not shown positive GDP growth without a strong presence in the region, ‘utilities’, ‘mining’, and ‘wholesale trade’ to name a few. Current FLREDC strategies have not addressed these industries that do not perform as well as others in the regional economy. This is where our analysis can be beneficial to provide guidance for future economic development strategies.

39

BUFFALO Buffalo, New York has a long history of economic success, especially at the dawn of the 20th century. The city’s location along the Niagara River and Erie Canal was instrumental in its economic prosperity. The city was among the first to benefit from hydroelectric power in the region and was uniquely positioned as a manufacturing center. Buffalo specialized in industrial manufacturing and grain storage, however, deindustrialization by the end of the century would leave the region with a dwindling population and a diminishing economy. Efforts to revitalize the region’s economy have been continued piecemeal until the more recent decade. The following section analyzes Buffalo’s current gross domestic product (GDP) and historical trends by industry.

Location quotient (LQ) data is used to identify concentrations of employment by industry sector, which provides insight into the underlying logic of WNYREDC’s economic development strategies as well as identify industries whose employment far exceeds the national average. These ongoing projects and strategies led by the WNYREDC are then compared against national trends to assess Buffalo’s economic competitiveness. This analysis will in turn provide the platform for structuring investments and economic development projects into a Pioneering, Investment, Converting and Strengthening (PICS) development strategy framework.

Economic Demographics - Labor Force With a population of 259,574 Buffalo is the second-largest city in New York State and the largest city in Western New York. The city is the focal point of Erie County, with an estimated population of nearly 1 million residents (923,995). Despite the median age of residents in the city being 32.8 years old, the county is home to a large elderly population with 16.9% of the population aged 65 or older. It is anticipated that the aging population of the region will negatively impact the available qualified labor force and necessitates economic development strategies that can support a transitioning workforce.

Income Median household income for Buffalo in 2018 was $37,359 per year; considerably low in contrast to the median income of Erie county as a whole ($56,369), and slightly under the median annual income across the United States ($61,937). Median household income in the city to date represents a 7.31% annual growth compared to a median income of $34,814 in 2017.

Gini Index

30% Buffalo Poverty Rate

40

50% impovrished in Buffalo in Deep poverty

According to the Gini calculation of the 2018 wage distribution, Buffalo reports a coefficient of 0.444, which is lower than the national average of 0.479. In other words, income inequality in Buffalo is just slightly beneath the national average. Based on U.S. Census Bureau thresholds, roughly 30% of the city population in 2017 was impoverished, while 15.1% of

residents were in “deep poverty”, defined by earnings less than half the federal poverty level. The Gini coefficient and other measures of equity are important to consider in our analysis of regional economic development strategies as we aim to propose strategies that will improve equitable economic outcomes in the region.

Employment by Industry Buffalo’s economy is driven by a labor force of roughly 114,000 jobs with the largest industries (by number of employees) being Health Care & Social Assistance, Educational Services, and Retail Trade.

The most common jobs held by Buffalo residents in 2018 were in Office & Administrative Support Occupations (15,450 people), Management Occupations (9,493 people), and Food Preparation & Serving Related Occupations (9,233 people).24

Location Quotient Data LQ data collected from the Bureau of Economic Analysis reflects Buffalo’s employment by industry sector as it relates to national averages. Results from the data analysis indicate that employment in the management of companies and enterprises sector has a notably high location quotient, in contrast to the national average with a value of 1.6. The location quotient for the manufacturing sector, while slightly above the national average at 1.2, demands strategies that could capitalize on innovative technologies, talents workforce development and infrastructure improvement, all of which have been identified in the WNYREDC’s regional strategy report. In terms of clustering, construction employment could benefit from development strategies as they relate to manufacturing. With an LQ of .8, the construction industry is under the national average in terms of employment but with growth in the manufacturing sector, construction jobs will also experience increases to match production facility construction, infrastructure improvements and maintenance. The Mining industry (with an LQ under .3), as well as agriculture (LQ of .3) have relatively low LQ’s meaning very low employment in these sectors. Additionally the professional, scientific, and technical services, as well as the arts and entertainment sectors have LQ’s lower than the national average but are strongly linked to the tourism, manufacturing and health and life sciences sectors. This would suggest that economic development and investment strategies aimed at the tradable sectors identified in the WNYREDC report will in turn benefit Arts & entertainment and professional services.

GDP Analysis Data extracted from BEA data sets illustrate a steady growth in gross domestic product for the Buffalo metropolitan statistical area (2001 - 2018). One notable feature of this graph is that GDP growth was maintained through the financial crisis from 2007-2009. A calculated trend line shows an estimated average growth of $693,197 per year with an annual growth rate of 1.30%.

The GDP Stacked Area Chart represents the relative size of each industry as it relates to the overall GDP by breaking down the GDP by sector in dollar amounts. The top five industries, in terms of percent of the GDP are Government and government enterprise, Manufacturing, Real Estate, 41

Finance and Insurance, and Healthcare and social assistance. Real estate is the fastest growing of these industries with a growth rate of 3.84%. Manufacturing is lowest on the list with a negative growth rate of -0.37%.

Sector as Percent of GDP (Top 5)

18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 2001

2006

Manufacturing Healthcare

2010

2014

2018

Finance and Insurace Government Real Estate

The Sector as Percent of GDP (Top 5) chart illustrates these growth rates; Real estate is the fourth largest sector in 2001 at ~9% of the GDP and in 2018 it is the largest at over 14% of the GDP. Manufacturing was second in 2001 at almost 16%, peaking at 16.9% in 2007, and ends at third in 2018 at 11.9%. In the following figure, we see the top 5 sectors graphed as a percentage of the GDP from 2001-2018. Health Care experienced steady GDP growth throughout 2001 to 2018 and the Finance sector has been unable to stabilize since 2007.

Figure 3.18 | Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Percent Change of Buffalo MSA GDP

6%

*Interesting to note is the decreasing percent change in GDP. It is still positive though it is negatively sloped (reference â&#x20AC;&#x153;Percent Change in GDPâ&#x20AC;? graph).

5%

PICS Analysis

0%

Strengthening

4% 3% 2% 1%

-1% -2%

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

Industries that fall in the upper Figure 3.19 | Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis right quadrant of the PICS model are considered strengthening industries. This suggests that these industry sectors have a high location quotient by employment and a high GDP. Industries in the strengthening quadrant describe the most competitive and growing industries in the city and are a good starting point for extending economic development strategies. As previously mentioned, the WNYREDC identified advanced manufacturing, health & life sciences, and tourism as key sector priorities. The PICS model illustrates some of the underlying rationales for this targeted strategy, industries in the strengthening quadrant such as the aforementioned have higher growth potential and are already some of the strongest and most specialized industry sectors in the economy.

Pioneering The pioneering quadrant identifies industries that have a high location quotient by employment but a lower GDP output. This quadrant has been labeled pioneering because it suggests that industries in this quadrant already have the jobs and infrastructure but not necessarily the technological advancement or operational efficiency to be fully competitive at the national scale. The only industry in the pioneering panel is manufacturing, which aligns with the targeted investments that the WNYREDC has implemented since 2011. As Buffalo reshapes its manufacturing industry from traditional manufacturing to more advanced applications, the growing talent pipeline generated 42

from the Northland training center and local colleges will bring additional growth to the sector improving production output and catalyze growth in emerging advanced manufacturing markets.

2

1.8

1.6

Pioneering (Mid-term)

Location Quotient

Buffalo PICS Panel

Strengthening (Short-term)

1.4

1.2

GDP CoefďŹ cient -$250M

1

-$200M

-$150M

-$100M

-$50M

0

$50M

$100M

$150M

$200M

$250M

0.8

Converting (Long-term)

0.6

Investing (Mid-term)

0.4

0.2

0

Agriculture

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate

Accommodation and Food Services

Mining

Real Estate

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Utilities

Finance and Insurance

Other Services

Construction

Professional and Business Services

Manufacturing

Professional Services

Wholesale Trade

Management of Companies

Retail Trade

Administrative

Transportation and Warehousing Information

Government

Education and Healthcare Educational Services Healthcare

Figure 3.20 | Source: Employment and GDP data from Bureau of Economic Analysis

43

Converting Converting industries are characterized by a declining GDP and LQ value under 1.0. The industries show a strong decline in Buffalo's economy and existing assets should be redirected at new markets over the next seven or more years.

Investing Investing industries are sectors that have a high GDP coefficient but an LQ lower than 1.0 The Industries in the investment quadrant have high GDP output but LQ’s lower than 1. This suggests that the industries are fairly strong producers but the job numbers in them are below the national average. This would indicate the potential for investment opportunities that can create more jobs and stimulate growth in industries already producing significant output. Tourism falls within this quadrant and has been identified by the WNYREDC as a key tradable sector. The Buffalo Niagara region generates millions per year in tourism. Further investment in the tourism sector, namely strategic and tactical placemaking strategies, along with improved visitor centers, and downtown revitalization efforts all create the need for more jobs. It is these targeted investment strategies that will produce higher wages and more jobs within the sector, which in the following years could cause a shift in the tourism sector from the investing quadrant to the strong quadrant.

Industry Network Analysis In this network analysis, modeled after the US Cluster Mapping strategy, circles represent industries in Buffalo and the surrounding MSA: light blue circles indicate a sector in the 75th percentile of LQ for the city, dark blue indicates 90th percentile, and medium blue indicates an LQ greater than 1.0.

The lines connecting the circles indicate the strength of the connection between sectors: dashed lines indicating weak connection, grey lines moderate connections, and red lines indicating strong connections.

This network analysis shows us the highest LQ’s are held by finance and management, followed by educational services, manufacturing, and healthcare. Compared to the nation, the Buffalo metropolitan statistical area has a high concentration of jobs in these sectors. This web shows us that the “financial” sector and “management” sector are strongly related and both have strong location quotients. The presence of several corporate branches of banks and the headquarters of M&T Bank helps to explain finance and management, while the presence of Tesla and GM factories as well as the Northland Workforce Training Center explain manufacturing.

It also shows us a strong connection between the government sector and educational services.

Additionally, there is a strong tie between the educational sector and the healthcare industry, in large part due to the University at Buffalo medical campus and the Buffalo Institute for Genomics.

The strong connections that emanate from Government and government-related service” gives another graphical representation of the large percentage of GDP this sector contributes. Our network analysis closely resembles that of US Cluster Mapping, which is a tool used to identify clusters of industries. This is done in order to inform strategically targeted investments with the hope to benefit clusters/linkages, as opposed to a firm by firm investment strategy.

44

Health Care

Accomodation, Food Service

Real Estate

Agriculture Finance

Management Professional Services

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Mining

Government

Transportation

Retail Trade

Information

Construction

Arts, Entertainment

Educational Services

Utilities

Administration

Cluster Specialization Legend Strong cluster above 90th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) ≥ 95th percentile & Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Strong cluster above 75th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) 90th-94th percentile, Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Other specialized clusters (LQ > 1.0)

Next closest cluster not meeting above criteria

Created with NodeXL Pro (http://nodexl.codeplex.com) from the Social Media Research Foundation (http://www.smrfoundation.org)

Figure 3.21 | Created with: NodeXL Pro (http://nodexl.codeplex.com) from the Social Media Research Foundation (http://www.smrfoundation.org)

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Buffalo Factor Conditions

Related & Supporting Industries

Bi-National Logisitics

Advanced Manufacturing Health & Life Sciences Tourism Jacobâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s School of Medicine 43North Manufacturing Real Estate Managment Services Retail Trade

Energy (namely Hydroelectric) Northland Workforce Training Niagara Falls Buffalo Billion

Strategy, Structure & Rivalry

Demand Conditions

East Side Corridor Economic Development Buffalo Green Code WNY Smart Growth Community Fund Waterfront Redevelopment Plans Academic R&D Innovation Hub

Buffalo has shown signs of sustained economic growth largely driven by the private sector. Buffalo has experienced a steady rise in industry output and tourism andd related services have grown.

Figure 3.22 | Source: Michael E. Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (1990)

Income Inequality Analysis Percent Change Income by Quintile: Buffalo

Percent Change

5

1.7%

2.2%

0.4% 0

-1.7% -3.7%

-5

-6.2% 20

40 % change (2007-2013)

Figure 3.22 | Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

46

60

Quintiles % change (2013-2018)

80

100 % change (2007-2018)

Top 5%

Buffalo Analysis Overview & Conclusion A regional approach to economic growth has become increasingly important within the context of post-industrial legacy cities, and Buffalo is leading the momentum. Ongoing investment strategies within the city and the MSA are becoming progressively aligned with broader regional goals across WNY. This comprehensive approach stimulates coordination in investment between jurisdictions on key industry sectors including advanced manufacturing, health & life sciences, and higher education. The smart growth approach unfolding aims to build upon the region's strengths in industry specialization (LQs) while addressing some of the key challenges surrounding the available workforce and their level of skill, as well as talent recruitment, and overall competitive potential.

Buffalo in particular has focused on leveraging existing assets such as tourism, the concentration of advanced manufacturing industries, and arts & entertainment. As shown in our PICS panel, Buffalo’s LQ’s in Finance and Management, followed by Educational services, manufacturing and healthcare, are all highly concentrated in contrast to national averages, indicating an opportunity for continued investment in these areas. Furthermore, economic opportunity for Buffalo and the MSA presents itself in the GDP rates of employment in the accommodation and food services; arts; entertainment, and recreation growing stronger each year.

Buffalo is uniquely positioned to catalyze regional growth for a host of other reasons, including its geographic location within 500 miles/800 km of 40 percent of the U.S. population, and its size area composed of eight different counties. The city’s proximity to the Canada border also makes it a bi-national gateway for commerce, business, and entertainment hubs. Current plans also involve economic and environmental justice strategies such as the East Side Corridor Economic Development Fund, aimed at improving economic conditions for Buffalo’s particularly vulnerable East Side residents; designated Brownfield Opportunity Areas (BOA) for remediation, and the Buffalo Sewer Authority’s comprehensive, citywide green infrastructure program known as Rain Check.

Current efforts are tapping into the generative potential of existing strong industries, workforce preparation, and entrepreneurship, all of which strongly assert the competitive edge of the city and, in turn, WNY as a whole. As economic development efforts continue to unfold, policy-makers and planners can make use of our PICS panel to monitor performance and tailor strategies to the needs of the region. However, we posit that policies and projects implemented must also consider the role of equity and their impacts on marginalized communities such as the poor, elderly, and racial and ethnic minorities. While economic development has the potential to bolster the region, it is vital to create an inclusive and diverse tide. Studies show that metro economies exhibit faster, stronger, and longer growth spells when prosperity isn’t limited to just a few segments of the population.25 A more dynamic economy with regard to labor force, innovation, and types of industry generates greater jobs and economic opportunities for more people.26

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4. Buffalo Case Study The city of Buffalo makes up almost a quarter of the population of it’s Metropolitan Statistical area (Fig 4.1). This population on average has a lower Median household income, higher rates of poverty and unemployment and is more racially diverse. Half of households in Buffalo have incomes under $35,893; similarly 43.34% of households are under $30,000, 37.51% are under $25,000, 30.51% are under $20,000, 23.74% are under $15,000 and 13.54% are under $10,000.

A regional approach to economic growth has become increasingly important within the context of post-industrial legacy cities, and Buffalo is leading the momentum. Ongoing investment strategies within the city and the MSA are becoming progressively aligned with broader regional goals across WNY. This comprehensive approach stimulates coordination in investment between jurisdictions on key industry sectors including advanced manufacturing, health & life sciences, and higher education. The smart growth approach unfolding aims to build upon the region’s strengths in industry specialization (LQs) while addressing some of the key challenges surrounding the available workforce and their level of skill, as well as talent recruitment, and overall competitive potential.

Buffalo in particular has focused on leveraging existing assets such as tourism, the concentration of advanced manufacturing industries, and arts & entertainment. As shown in our PICS panel, Buffalo’s LQ’s in Finance and Management, followed by Educational services, manufacturing and healthcare, are all highly concentrated in contrast to national averages, indicating an opportunity for continued investment in these areas. Furthermore, economic opportunity for Buffalo and the MSA presents itself in the GDP rates of employment in the accommodation and food services; arts; entertainment, and recreation growing stronger each year.

Buffalo is uniquely positioned to catalyze regional growth for a host of other reasons, including its geographic location within 500 miles/800 km of 40 percent of the U.S. population, and its size area composed of eight different counties. The city’s proximity to the Canada border also makes it a bi-national gateway for commerce, business, and entertainment hubs. Current plans also involve economic and environmental justice strategies such as the East Side Corridor Economic Development Fund, aimed at improving economic conditions for Buffalo’s particularly vulnerable East Side residents; designated Brownfield Opportunity Areas (BOA) for remediation, and the Buffalo Sewer Authority’s comprehensive, citywide green infrastructure program known as Rain Check. Current efforts are tapping into the generative potential of existing strong industries, workforce preparation, and entrepreneurship, all of which strongly assert the competitive edge of the city and, in turn, WNY as a whole.

As economic development efforts continue to unfold, policy-makers and planners can make use of our PICS panel to monitor performance and tailor strategies to the needs of the region. However, we posit that policies and projects implemented must also consider the role of equity and their impacts on marginalized communities such as the poor, elderly, and racial and ethnic minorities.

While economic development has the potential to bolster the region, it is vital to create an inclusive and diverse tide. Studies show that metro economies exhibit faster, stronger, and longer growth spells when prosperity isn’t limited to just a few segments of the population.27 A more dynamic economy with regard to labor force, innovation, and the industry generates more jobs and economic opportunities for more people.28

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Buffalo Demographic Overview Niagara

Erie

Buffalo MSA

Buffalo City

Population

Population

1,131,570

256,322

White alone

White alone

Black or African American Alone

Black or African American Alone

Hispanic or Latino

Hispanic or Latino

All Other*

All Other*

Median Household Income

Median Household Income

Poverty Rate

Poverty Rate

Gini Index

Gini Index

Unemployment

Unemployment

79.7%

12.3%

47.4%

36.7%

4.9%

11.5%

5.6%

$37,359

11.9%

10.1% 0.46

5.6%

$35,893 24.5% 0.49

7.6%

*Includes: American Indian, Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiin and other PaciďŹ c Islander, Some Other Race Alone

Figure 4.1 | Source: American Community Survey 2018, 5 year Estimates

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Buffalo MSA Lorenz Curve

100

Percent of Aggregate Income

Percent of Aggregate Income

100

80

60

40 2008 2012 2018

20

Line of Perfect Equality

0

20

40

60

Percent of Total Population

80

100

Buffalo City Lorenz Curve

80

60

40

Line of Perfect Equality

0

Figure 4.2 | Source: American Community Survey 2008 (3yr), 2012 (5yr), 2018 (5yr) estimates

2008 2012 2018

20

20

40

60

Percent of Total Population

80

100

Figure 4.3 | Source: American Community Survey 2008 (3yr), 2012 (5yr), 2018 (5yr) estimates

Median Household Income & Employment $ 37,359 2018 Value ±$2,335

7.31% 1 Year Growth ±8.57%

114,000 Jobs 2018 Value ±4.78%

-4.78% 1 Year Decline ±7.29%

Data from the Census Bureau ACS 1-year Estimate Median Household Income in Buffalo is less than the median annual income across the entire United States which is $61,937. Buffalo has been experiencing some economic growth over the recent years and from 2017 to 2018, median household income rose by 7.31%. Despite this rise in median household income over the course of the same year Buffalo experienced a -4.78% decline in the total number of jobs. Additionally, Buffalo’s Gini Index (See fig above) remains relatively unchanged over the course of the same time period suggesting that despite the increase in median income, the number of jobs and the number of jobs paying living wages continues to decline.

Over the course of the Western NY REDC, factors of equity and jobs for under served populations remains an important issue that must be addressed within the context of industry clustering and agglomeration economies. The purpose of this case study addresses the fact that although the new NYS regional Strategy has many strengths, it is integral for overall socio-economic success that the following key issues are addressed.

1. It is essential that the state’s regional plans and CFA projects do not diminish themselves to the same old subsidies dressed up in the newer jargon of regional competitiveness and economic development. The state’s clustering strategy cannot concede to firm-by-firm specific assistance that often fails to create long-term economic prosperity.

2. In the current global economy, firms are very “footloose” meaning that regional economic 50

100

National Lorenz Curve

Gini Indicies by City 0.460

0.450

80

0.445 0.440

60

Gini Indicies

Percent of Aggregate Income

0.455

40

0.430 0.425 0.420

2006-2008 2009-2013 2014-2018

20

0.415 0.410

Line of Perfect Equality

0

0.435

20

40

60

Percent of Total Population

80

0.405

2008



100

Figure 4.4 | Source: American Community Survey 2008 (3yr), 2012 (5yr), 2018 (5yr) estimates

2010

2012



2014



2016

2018



Figure ## | Source: 3yr and 5yr Estimates American Community Survey

Figure 4.5 | Source: American Community Survey 2008 (3yr), 2012 (5yr), 2018 (5yr) estimates

strategy should be based more on its anchor institutions than specific firms creating long-standing specialized economic ecosystems that cultivate sustained growth and exchange between public and private institutions.

3. Economic development sometimes seeks growth for its own sake, with any gains in community equity as a secondary byproduct. But the argument this studio wishes to highlight is that making economic equity a cornerstone to regional development can in fact contribute and speed overall economic growth. Policies such as living wages and job training for low-income workers, adequate child care, union involvement, better public transportation and affordable housing all can contribute to faster more sustainable growth.29 4. Emphasize immediate job creation and sustainability.

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Buffalo Employment by Industry, 3-Year Average

Location Quotient

1.6

1.2

1.3

1.2 1.15

1.0 National Average

Ag ric ul tu re M in in Ut g i lit Co ie ns s t ru M ct an io uf ac n W ho t le urin sa le g T Re rad e ta il Tr Tr an a de sp or t Fi at na io I n nc nfo rm e an at d io In n su r a Pr nc R of e es eal sio Es ta na l S te er vi M c an ag es Ad em m en in t ist ra ti Ed on u Ar ca ts He tion an a d Ac En lth co t er car m e od ta in at m io e n an nt d Fo od Ot he Go r ve rn m en t

0.0

Figure ## | Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2001-2018

Figure 4.6 | Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2001-2018

Note Aboute East Buffalo Based on the figure, there has been a markedly clear decline in incomes, business development and quality of life on Buffalo’s East Side. To address these growing concerns, Phase II of Governor Andrew M. Cuomo’s Buffalo Billion investment plan targets areas along four East Side Commercial Corridors.30 Promoting mixed-use commercial corridors, entrepreneurship, and projects with strong community momentum offers the first stages of a complete revitalization of Buffalo’s East Side, bringing under served communities into the larger economic growth the City and region has begun to experienc.

Buffalo Top Industries The Western New York REDC has identified a number Figure 4.7 | Source: Social Exploerer, American of strategies specific to a couple of key tradable sectors. Community Survey (5 Year Estimates) Advanced Manufacturing, Health & Life Sciences and Tourism are key industry sectors that the Western NY REDC seeks to leverage into a larger clustered ecosystem that cultivates innovation, advancement and growth. This targeted approach is supported by a number of key indicators such as employment-by-industry based location quotients. In the following figure, Buffalo industry in the Finance-Insurance-Real Estate (FIRE), Manufacturing, Education and Health Care Services all surpass national averages of employment suggesting a clear specialization in those industries.

Based on key indicators, the WNY Economic development strategies are showing consistent economic growth within the region that has not been realized in decades. WNY added more than 52

17,700 jobs, over 1,100 new firms and $5.6B in total wages from 2011 to 2018 [and]…has the fewest number of unemployed workers since 1990.31

Advanced Manufacturing Advanced Manufacturing is a key industry integral to Buffalo’s economy because it offers the opportunity for Buffalo to export goods and services achieving higher wages and competitive economic growth. The recent move by Buffalo Manufacturing Works to the Northland Corridor is evidence of Buffalo’s commitment to expanding workforce development opportunities, catalyze growth on Buffalo’s East Side and create a competitive workforce pipeline with workers skilled in the large array of burgeoning fields in advanced manufacturing. At Buffalo’s High-Tech Innovation and Commercialization Hub at Riverbend, the Tesla GigaFactory ramped up production in 2018 and 2019 and expanded employment to 730 employees. ESD capital grants and Excelsior deals awarded to manufacturers like International Imaging Materials, Inc. PranaSleep, TMP Technologies and Wells Enterprises32 illustrate a few of the many initiatives that have helped create new job opportunities and cultivate a portfolio of numerous manufacturers. This economic development strategy upholds a commitment to the clustering of advanced manufacturing firms in Buffalo leveraging an agglomeration economy that will continue to sustain stable job growth, innovation and competition within the region.

Health & Life Sciences In addition to advanced manufacturing, the Health & Life Sciences is another major regional asset anchored by major institutions such as the Buffalo Institute for Genomics, Buffalo Niagara Medical campus and the Jacobs Institute. Industry partnerships between institutions such as these and the many growing private firms such as Athenex, create a burgeoning Health and Life Sciences cluster, which creates a demand for high paying jobs whilst improving the local health outcomes.

A UB Planning studio is uniquely positioned to discuss the correlation between economic development and equity. Academia offers us the protection to speak freely from an informed perspective on issues that are deemed too political for outside or even other university-affiliated organizations. The issue of equity is not one of politics, but rather data. The Gini indices and Lorenz curves generated for these four cities indicated Buffalo is a compelling case study for applying equitable economic development in part because it had the highest and most stable Gini Index of the four cities in this study in 2008 and 2012.

The exception is the Syracuse Gini Index in 2018. Another measure of equity, that is perhaps no more relevant than now is life expectancy. The Buffalo Metropolitan statistical area has the lowest life expectancy of any Metropolitan statistical area in New York State. “Buffalo residents have an average life expectancy of 78.5 years (compared to 80.4 years statewide – sixth highest),”33 (24/7 Wall St. who got the data from the CDC). More info is needed to further discuss life expectancy such as what is included, more granular city-level data opposed to just MSA, where the data came from, etc.)

53

1.8

1.6

Pioneering (Mid-term)

Location Quotient

Buffalo PICS Panel 2

Strengthening (Short-term)

1.4

1.2

GDP CoefďŹ cient -$250M

1

-$200M

-$150M

-$100M

-$50M

0

$50M

$100M

$150M

$200M

$250M

0.8

Converting (Long-term)

0.6

Investing (Mid-term)

0.4

0.2

0

Agriculture

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Real Estate

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Utilities

Finance and Insurance

Other Services

Construction

Professional and Business Services

Manufacturing

Professional Services

Wholesale Trade

Management of Companies

Retail Trade

Administrative

Transportation and Warehousing Information

Education and Healthcare Educational Services Healthcare

Figure 4.8 | Source: Employment and GDP Data from Bureau of Economic Analysis

54

Accommodation and Food Services

Mining

Government

In-Depth Analysis of Buffalo PICS Chart The PICS panel was instrumental in our data analysis. As mentioned earlier the PICS panel was a chart we adapted from a SWOT analysis. The chart divided the industries we studied into four different panels which are strengthening, pioneering, investing, and converting. Industries were placed on the chart based on their location quotient coefficient (shown in the x-axis) and GDP coefficient (shown in the y-axis). The location quotient (LQ) coefficient measures the change in an industries’ local specialization in Buffalo relative to the national average. The GDP coefficient measures the rate of change for the value of goods and services produced by an industry. Each panel contains industries with similar characteristics based on their location quotient and GDP coefficients. By grouping these industries in the PICS panel we were able to analyze our data visually and see deep-rooted connections between sectors. This chart helped us explain the trends we saw and find ways to apply our cluttered investment strategy.

Strengthening The strengthening area shows all of the most profitable industries in Buffalo and it is located in the first quadrant. These industries are characterized by high LQ and GDP values showing that these industries are highly specialized and profitable in the Buffalo metro statistical area (MSA).

According to the panel Buffalo’s strengthening industries are: Management of Organizations and Enterprises Educational Services Government and Government Enterprises Accommodation and Food Services Healthcare and Social Assistance Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance/Insurance These industries all have shown to be very profitable and could yield high returns on investment.

Based on the PICS panel findings and the use of industry cluster mapping, we identified the opportunity to invest in multiple industries using a single targeted approach. There are four industry clusters presented in the strengthening panel. These industry clusters are “management and finance”, “healthcare/social assistance” and “educational services”, and “wholesale trade, retail, and food accommodation”; two of which are already targeted areas of investment in the Buffalo Billion economic report. The “healthcare”and “education” industry clusters align with the Buffalo Billion’s focus on improved health and life science sectors while the “wholesale trade, and food service industry” correlates with the plan's emphasis on investing in tourism. Understanding how these industries are affected by current investment strategies can help us identify what improvements can be made to these policies to benefit other interlinked sectors. The “finance/ insurance, management, government” clusters are not mentioned in the Buffalo Billion economic plan but their importance is shown in their strong LQ and GDP values of our PICS panel.

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Cluster Analysis The finance/insurance, management, government cluster includes two of the strongest industries; finance/insurance and management. The “management” industry has the strongest LQ in the strengthening panel with a coefficient of 1.6 indicating that the management industry is 1.6 times more concentrated in Buffalo than in 6rest of the nation. The GDP coefficient for the“management” industries shows a high value of goods and services for this industry totaling $47,641, reflecting the industry's generative power in the region. Finance is another strong industry reflected in our panel.

An LQ of 1.207 in this industry reflects a rate of specialization is 1.27 times more concentrated over the national average and a robust GDP coefficient of $135,211 dollars. Furthermore, the finance sector had the second-highest LQ values out of all the industries. Government and government enterprises had an LQ of 1.06 showing a specialization 1.6 times over the national average, suggesting that Buffalo has a slight competitive advantage over the rest of the country. The GDP value of the government sector was 24,858.

The “finance”, “management”, and “government” sectors are all very closely connected through their core functions. The finance and management industry works together because they are two core parts of business employing a highly concentrated sector in Buffalo’s MSA. The government sector relates to these industries in its function of taxation and regulation. Recent investments in this cluster have contributed to the growth of these industries. Currently the finance/insurance industry in Buffalo is experiencing strong growth. M&T Bank and KeyBank both have their corporate offices located in Buffalo which maintains a lot of influence and activity in the Buffalo economy (Robinson,2020). Geico has a call center and corporate offices located in Buffalo and plans to increase employment in Amherst.34 The debt services firm Strategic Financial Solutions is also planning on expanding into Amherst and hiring hundreds of new employees (Robinson,2020). With the expansion of the finance and insurance industry the management industry is growing to fill the new need for managerial professionals. In addition, the growth in the finance/insurance industry in Buffalo has increased investments toward startups, which increases the number of firms locating themselves in Buffalo and increasing the demand in the management sector. The Buffalo Billion has made investments toward an improved entrepreneurial environment one of its core focuses.

Investments consist of the establishment of 43North which is a business development hub with co-working spaces and business consulting. The IT Innovation Lab and the UB Innovation Hub are two additional initiatives to promote entrepreneurial participation by offering office space and other business services to new or growing businesses. The investments in startups reflect over $85 million in investment from the Buffalo Billion.35

Healthcare/Social Assistance and Educational Services The healthcare and educational service industry has continued to remain strong in Buffalo. LQ data shows that the healthcare industry has a specialization 1.48 times more then the national average and educational services had a concentration 1.17 times over the national average. The data showed that the GDP value of the healthcare industry was by $98,051 and educational services had a GDP of $6225.

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The “healthcare” and “education” industries are unique as the education industry provides the healthcare industry with new local graduates to fill the demand for medical personnel. Healthcare institutions invest millions of dollars into university facilities and partnerships to help conduct research. In recent years healthcare has been active with partnerships and recent investments. Much of the growth in the healthcare industry comes as a result of Buffalo's aging population. Medical research in Buffalo is making strides in the areas of aging, cancer treatment and mental health to meet current healthcare needs. Niagara Falls Memorial Medical Center recently partnered with UB Neurosurgery to expand its services and ECMC and invest 55 million dollars in a new emergency room expansion.36 Additionally, the Buffalo Billion has made several investments in biomedical medicine. Some investments consist of the introduction of the drug company AMRI into Buffalo and capital investments into Buffalo Institute for Genomics, University at Buffalo Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, and John R. Oishei Children’s Hospital.37 The education service industry works in partnership with the healthcare industry by generating new professionals with the technical knowledge to support these sectors and by forming research partnerships with the local universities to expand resources.

Investments in the Buffalo tourism industry have had a positive effect on the retail, accommodation for the food service, and wholesale trade industry.38 Investments in tourism have created a new demand for food accommodation services and retail as businesses are trying to market themselves to tourists. Wholesaling has a LQ value 1.049 time the national average. Retail trade has an LQ 1.114 times the national average. The food accommodation services industry has a LQ 1.09 times the national average. Wholesale trade works closely with retail and food service industries by providing them with the goods they need to function. The Buffalo Billion has identified tourism as one of its main sectors to funnel investment because of its high income generation potential.39 A noticeable investment in tourism was the redevelopment of the former Rainbow Center Mall in a mixed-use development with commercial and restaurant space.40 With the higher demands for goods for retail and food service, there have been new investments in commercial warehousing. In 2017 Benderson Development invested $21 million dollars in a warehouse in Cheektowaga with space for warehousing, distribution, and light manufacturing.41 In 2018 another investor from Brooklyn purchased a warehouse and distribution complex by the Scajaquada Expressway.42 The buyers 2225 East 7 Properties and JEMF Buffalo Industrial raised 3.6 million for the complex.43 Other businesses have continued to invest in warehousing space to capitalize on this growing trend.

PICS Panel Strategies Strengthening: Three year duration period For industries in the strengthening panel we decided that a strategic plan lasting three years would be appropriate for these industries. We felt that a shorter investment plan was appropriate for strengthening industries because they are already experiencing intense growth on their own. Any investment strategy to help these industries should work to promote their continued growth.

Pioneering: 3-7 year duration period For pioneering industries we chose to pursue a 3-7 year strategic plan. This amount of time is appropriate because pioneering industries need to reorganize their processes and operations in 57

order to be more competitive with other cities. In the case of manufacturing in Buffalo, we can see this change starting to occur with the introduction of new manufacturing into the industry entering the market like the ones mentioned.

Pioneering industries of the economy that have decreasing local specialization but still show some profitability according to their GDP values. The only industry in this panel was manufacturing. The LQ for the manufacturing sector is 1.18 times higher than the national average. The GDP value of -80,997 showing a decline in profitability but it still has a comparable GDP output with some industries in the strengthening panel. The Buffalo Billion made an investment in manufacturing one of its core investment strategies. The policy is working to update Buffalo’s manufacturing practices with hi-tech productions like robotics and medical devices. The Canadian robotics company Thinking Robot Studios agreed to build their first US facility in Buffalo specializing in 3D printing for the medical industry.44

Investing strategy: 3-7 year duration period For investing companies we decided on a 3-7 year investing plan that would be the best for investing industries. Unlike the pioneering industry the goal for investing industries would be to help establish these businesses deeper in the Buffalo economy. By investing in these industries now then they will have a higher chance of becoming strengthening industries in the future. These industries have already shown that they can be profitable so investment strategies should seek to nurture and grow this sector so they can become increasingly more competitive.

Industries in the investing panel are sectors that have low local specialization but high have high GDPs. These sectors have the potential to become strengthening industries in the future but they still have not reached the local specialization needed to compete with industries in other cities. The industries located in this panel are: Professional, scientific, technical services Agriculture, fishing, forestry, and related Mining, quarrying, gas extraction Art, entertainment, recreation Information technology Administrative, support, wastewater management Real estate, leasing, and rental Investing industries are characterized by their low LQ and high GDP values. The professional, scientific, and technical service industry consists of activities like legal, accounting, and scientific research activities. The “professional services'' industry has an LQ of 0.8 showing that it has a concentration, 8 times lower than the national average and a GDP coefficient value of $59,890.

Agriculture, fishing, forestry, and related activities like farming, timber harvesting, and fish harvesting. The “agricultural” industry has an LQ .27 time lower than the national average and it's GDP coefficient is 6,750. Mining, quarrying, gas extraction consist of extracting natural resources from the earth. The LQ for the mining industry .22 times lower than national average. The art, entertainment, recreation sector manages operating spaces for cultural events or activities. The art, entertainment, recreation has a LQ 0.97 times the national average showing a level of specialization 58

nearly equal to the nation and a GDP coefficient of 21,581. The information technology sector consists of businesses that make software or hardware or provide Internet services. The LQ for the information industry is 0.72 times higher than the national average and a GDP coefficient of 32,510. Administrative, support, wastewater management sector consists of companies that offer services like clerical work, wastes disposal and security. The LQ is 0.84 times the national average and a GDP value of 35,510.

Converting: 7 years or longer duration period Since these industries have such poor performance that the most effective strategy method to help the sectors would be a total reconstruction of the industry. We speculate that a full reconstruction of these industries could take even more years depending on the industry.

Converting industries are the under performing industries in the Buffalo MSA. These industries are identified by their low LQ and GDP values. These industries tend to have great difficulty competing with other markets and can even be in the process of getting phasing out entirely. The industries in this panel are: Construction Other services Utilities The construction industry has a LQ coefficient of 0.76 times the national average showing a decrease in specialization and a decrease in GDP of -30525. The other services sectors consist of a whole range of businesses that offer services like machinery repair, grant writing, personal care and other smaller business sectors. The LQ coefficient of 0.86 times the national average showing a decrease in specialization and a GDP coefficient of -14,459. The utilities industry is based from companies that organize and maintain public services like water and electricity. The utilities sector has a LQ of 0.77 times the national average showing a decreased specialization of and GDP coefficient of -3,319.

Outlier Industries When considering which industries to invest in we decided that an effective investment strategy should try to reach industrial all over the panel instead of just focusing investment in the strengthening or investing panel only. We selected the industries that were the most characteristic of their panel and identified them as the outlier industries. We recommend that these industries be evaluated for investment before all industries as a way to evaluate industry potential all over the panel. The industries are Agriculture, forestry, fishing, related Construction Manufacturing Finance and insurance Real estate,leasing, rentals Professional, scientific,technical Management of companies and enterprise Educational services 59

Art, entertainment, and recreation

Industry Clusters & Sustainable Economic Development Linkages between industries can be harnessed in a way that allows for a resilient Buffalo to be developed for future generations. With the creation of the Industry Network Web we have been able to see that there are many strong linkages between Buffalo’s industries. Current economic development trends must be tapered toward more sustainable goals that are beneficial to all of Buffalo’s residents in an equitable way. This task can be accomplished through a close look at the industries that are stronger in the Buffalo region relative to the national average, using the Location Quotient metric, to ensure that those industries in particular do not have adverse impacts on disadvantaged communities.

Both the Finance and the Management industries have very high location quotients (90th percentile), and are strongly linked according to the Industry Network Web, followed by Educational Services, Health Care, and Manufacturing, which each fall into the 75th percentile of LQs. The total number of jobs in Buffalo has been declining, seeing an almost five percent drop in 2018, despite this the industries in the city with the strongest LQs, as well as those with strong links to them, will continue to see growth in the near future. The three key industry sectors that the Western New York REDC seeks to capitalize upon to create more jobs and a more integrated economic ecosystem are advanced manufacturing, health & life sciences, and tourism. Given Manufacturing and Health Care have already been established as having higher LQs, and the accommodation & food services sector has an LQ above 1.0 as well, indicating that each of the three key industry sectors that the WNYREDC has pinned as being conducive to innovation, advancement, and growth. With these goals in mind, it will be critical for future economic development in the city of Buffalo to consider social equities in industries mentioned in this section.

The Accommodation industry in Buffalo has moderately strong connections to Construction, Retail Trade, and Professional Services, this cluster of industries tends to employ limited amounts of high skilled workers, allowing for there to be job training across Buffalo’s diverse population in a socially equitable way. Advanced Manufacturing has benefited in Western New York from the establishment of the Northland Workforce Training Center as part of Governor Cuomo’s Buffalo Billion initiative. Manufacturing finds itself with linkages to construction, professional services, retail trade, and wholesale trade. According to our industry network analysis, the logistics and supply chain industries that rely on manufacturing within the region to thrive have each benefited from the increased manufacturing output. This is another cluster of industries where growth in the foreseeable future has a strong impact on the region’s economy.

It has been shown that sustainable economic growth can be achieved by incorporating policies such as job training for low-income communities, living wages, and unionized labor can all be utilized for economic development in our region to be sustainable. In addition to targeting industry clusters where implementing such policies would have the most significant impact, Buffalo will build a more just city with continued growth.

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Northland Workforce Training Center Developed as a part of New York State Governor, Andrew Cuomo’s administration’s, “Buffalo Billion Initiative” the Northland Workforce Training Center is “an industry-driven, public-private partnership between employers, educational institutions, community and faith-based organizations and state and local government focused on closing the skills gap of the local labor pool and creating economic on-ramps to training, co-ops, internships, apprenticeships, and permanent employment for Western New Yorkers seeking high-paying advanced manufacturing and energy careers.”45 The Training Center is currently divided into two specializations: Advanced Manufacturing Training Center and Utility of the Future & Clean Energy Training Center.

Although many politicians and planners often tout how many jobs a new development creates, they neglect to mention the quality of those jobs which can be part-time, low wage, contract positions without benefits or stability yet are still “jobs.” The advanced manufacturing jobs that Northland Training Center graduates earn are well paying, stable jobs with benefits at local Western New York companies that include Moog, Tesla, Panasonic, NFTA, Harmac and other Buffalo Niagara Manufacturing Alliance member companies. Something else that makes Northland different from other training programs is the “wraparound and support services” to help students overcome a variety of barriers ranging from financial to transportation to drug and alcohol counseling for up to three years after graduation and being hired. These services are critical to the success and retention of students which translates to the success of Buffalo and Western New York.

Economic development is about people just as much as it is dollars. Workforce development programs are the supply chain for skilled workers fueling economic growth in the manufacturing sector of the 21st century. The Northland Workforce Training Center has been successful so far, but both the 35-acre complex and its programming have room to grow in the coming years. The recent announcement of ReTech’s 10.5-year lease at Northland and relocation to Buffalo is a sign of hope for the resurgence of urban manufacturing on the east side of Buffalo.

Labor Force Unemployment In the Buffalo Metropolitan Statistical Area, the employment level fluctuated, in large part due to the economic crisis in the late 2000’s. According to data from the American Community Survey, in the 2008 3-year estimate unemployment was at 6.4% (10.7% - City), it then spiked at 8.6% (13.8% - City) in the 2013 5-year estimates, and came back down to 4.9% (7.6% - City) in the 2018 5-year estimates.

Job Data In data gathered from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, we see the “Health Care and Social Assistance” sector strengthened its labor force by almost 20%, from 74,342 jobs to 89,205 and became the sector with the largest number of jobs. It was also the sector that added the largest number of jobs with 14,863 jobs added. The second-largest sector in terms of the number of jobs in 2018 is “Government and government enterprises,” which has 88,060, down 2.73% from 2001. The 61

sector with the highest LQ, “Management of companies and enterprises” experienced an 84.99% increase in the number of jobs in this period, but boasts a meager 14,098 jobs (only 2.08% of all jobs in the Buffalo MSA). Finance and insurance on the other hand have the second-highest LQ and experienced a 39.88% increase in jobs, bringing the 2018 tally to 45,474 (6.71% of total jobs in the Buffalo MSA) and an addition of 12,964 jobs (second-most in this time).

Educational Attainment Based on data from ACS estimates, from 2008 to 2018, there was a 17.88% increase in the number of people over 25 years of age with Bachelor’s Degree and 23.26% increase in Master’s Degrees (29.91% and 28.13% for the City). This could be explained in part by an increase in the number of people moving to the region due to the increasing number of professional, traditionally whitecollar, jobs. It is also likely that the Buffalo population is following the national trend of degree inflation. Regardless of the cause, this information shows that the working population is becoming well equipped to fill available positions in specialized sectors such as “Finance and insurance,” “Health care and social assistance,” and “Professional, scientific, and technical services.”

Income The Median Household Income increased by 18.6%, from $46,676 to $55,371 between the 2008 3-year estimates and the 2018 5-year estimates (CITY - 20.26% from $29,845 to $35,893). In contrast, the GDP grew by 9.97% in this same time period.

The growth rate for the median household income during this period was 1.92 compared to 1.30 for the GDP (2.07 for City). Interesting to note is that during this time, the change in Gini coefficient was negligible (.44440 to .44443) [.4966 to .4945 for CITY], which means that although median household income is increasing at a rate faster than the GDP, economic inequality is not decreasing.

Furthermore, the aggregate income held by the lowest quintile decreased by 6.18% and the aggregate income held by the top 5% of the population increased by 2.20%. (In the city, all quintiles decreased with the exception of the 4th quintile which only increased by 1.14%). Important to note is that Percent Change in Aggregate Income 2008-2018 (Buffalo City) 4

Percent Change

2

0

-2

-4

-6 Lowest Quintile

Second Quintile

Third Quintile 2008-2013

2013-2018

Fourth Quintile

Highest Quintile

2008-2013

Figure 4.9 | Source: American Community Survey 2008 (3yr), 2012 (5yr), 2018 (5yr) estimates

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top 5 percent

Percent Change Income by Quintile: Buffalo

Percent Change

5

1.7%

2.2%

0.4% 0

-1.7% -3.7%

-5

-6.2% 20

40 % change (2007-2013)

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Quintiles % change (2013-2018)

80

100

Top 5%

% change (2007-2018)

Figure 4.10 | Source: American Community Survey 2008 (3yr), 2012 (5yr), 2018 (5yr) estimates

because the share of income held by the bottom quintile was below 5%, it is particularly susceptible to a large percent change.

This indicates that there is economic growth, but that it is not changing the existing problems of economic inequality. While the strategies of the Western New York Regional Economic Development Council may be encouraging economic growth, they are not impacting regional equity.

Buffalo Demographics Deep Dive By the end of the 20th century, Buffalo had lost over half its population after the shift of industrial employment to the suburbs. Though recent years have introduced an increasingly diverse population to the Buffalo-Niagara region, a legacy of segregation and the effects of exclusionary urban planning policies prevail.46 As local investment strategies and statewide programs continue to unfold, planners and policy makers should strive for more equitable practices and sustainable economic outcomes. Not only is it a matter of social justice, but it is far more profitable and efficient to plan for an economically inclusive and diverse region.47 In Buffalo, racial and ethnic minorities, including resettled refugees, are disproportionately concentrated in impoverished neighborhoods and therefore experience inequitable access to resources and opportunities.48 However, that is not to say there is no work happening around these very salient issues, it has just mainly concentrated at the grassroots and community levels. Many local grassroots organizations, coalitions, and nonprofits have made great strides to improve the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s urban and economic health for a more diverse and largely marginalized set of constituents.

The work of local organizations has resulted in the emergence of urban gardens, the introduction of progressive food policies, the creation of jobs within communities, as well as enabled homeownership and business ownership for impoverished people of color. Across the collective efforts of communitybased work the mission toward economic equity and community wellbeing remains consistent.

Therefore policies that address legacies of socioeconomic barriers must be implemented and longterm focused in order to reinforce this goal throughout Buffaloâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s MSA. Historically marginalized populations have consistently demonstrated resilience and adapted 63

creatively in response to the region’s economic challenges. However, planners and policymakers must aim to support the work already taking place around reducing, if not eliminating, prevalent challenges for these communities. While nonprofits are dependent upon the public sector for funding, the government is dependent on the nonprofit sector to provide services to its constituents so it is worth reducing the gap between community-led strategies and local government action. A good way to advance this effort would be to establish a criterion for economic development projects and plans that will consider the negative socioeconomic impacts on marginalized groups, and require that developers and implementing entities monitor equity outcomes.

Equity as a Critical Element of Development Economic development scholars and planners increasingly Value of Equity in Buffalo MSA propose the benefits of equitable inclusivity in economic $60.94B growth. Central to such rethinking is a repudiation of the $4.73B $56.21B claim that economic growth and equity are competing Lost to objectives.49 Not only are populations entitled to equity but racial it is also a critical element in the long-term sustainability income of economic growth, as well as social, and political stability. inequity.

In the section that follows we investigate the literature on Actual GDP Projected GDP the connections between equity and the economy, as well as Figure 4.11 | Source: National Equity Atlas, GDP inclusive economies. By investigating equity and economic Gains with Racial Equity, Buffalo MSA 2015 growth in other regional contexts we are able to identify a variety of strategies to implement economic equity within the context of the described PICS panel strategies for Buffalo, New York.

Economic development and growth are inextricably linked to equity and impacts on social institutions ranging from populations’ quality of life to their access to economic participation and opportunity. Income inequality prevalent across Buffalo and the United States is reflective of the necessary changes to formal institutions and economic growth and distributive strategies altogether. Throughout the last few decades, inequity throughout the United States, specifically income and wealth inequality, has increased, despite any overall growth or decline of national and regional GDPs.50 This inequity is expressed by an increasing wealth amongst the nation’s wealthiest five percent, concentrating the power associated with the accumulation of great wealth.51 Specifically, in the United States, this income and wealth inequality is intensified - unjustly - across ethnic and racial lines.52 As described further in the “US Perspective” section below, the status quo state of income and wealth inequality results in hosts of other social, political, and economic inequalities. Ultimately the continuation of economic inequities inhibits historically marginalized groups in reaching their full potentials, and therefore, stifling the full potential of the country and its communities.53 In encouraging the development of equitable and inclusive economies, planners, economists, and policymakers are creating a climate in which populations are not burdened, underutilized, or “untapped”, but instead supported, encouraged, and capable of reaching their full human potential, subsequently contributes to a successful economy.

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Inclusive Economies Several strategies have been discussed by economists and policymakers to not only increase economic equity, but implement an entire economic system that is inclusive and encourages inclusivity. With attention not only reversing inequities that exist in our economy, but uplifting the economic reality for all populations. Policy strategies considered here can be implemented throughout different levels of government and combined with specific industrial development strategies, as outlined later in this analysis. It is critical to mention that inclusive economies are often discussed in the context of inclusive growth. Inclusive growth can be characterized as economic growth that is allocated evenly and justly throughout the population, while in effect, working towards decreasing other social inequalities that exist.54 In creating strategies for inclusive economies to be implemented, regional planning organizations are critical in catalyzing greater focus and commitment to creating truly inclusive economies. In addition to all of the economic development work that regional planning organizations do for New York State, strategies that can increase the amount of residents who can economically and socially gain from economic development strategies, as well as continuing to uplift residents who historically have been economically and socially successful. Fortunately, as mentioned in a early section of this report, regional economic development strategies and plans across New York State are aiming to increase the inclusivity of New York regional economies, however primarily only directly with workforce development initiatives. Strategies focused on equitable economic regional development that uplifts all residents, as well as industrial development, are discussed in detail in the latter half of this section.

US Perspective In 2018, the top 20% of the population whose average household income was $233,895 earned 52% of all U.S. income.55 The most rich people whose average household income was $416,520 take 5% of the total population, but earn 23% of all income.56 The bottom 20% only earned 3.1% of the nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s income.57 Their average household income was $13,775. Obviously, there is a huge gap between rich and poor, and this gap is continuing to become larger.

In order to bridge poor and rich, the government should provide education and employment training for lower-income people. Investing in human capital is the best way to increase individual wealth, improve the quality of the labor force and create more equity society. Equity in education would bring everyone up to receive at least a minimum standard education. It would be a better solution than increasing welfare benefits or providing a universal basic income.58 The more skilled workers in the market could also benefit the economy especially manufacturing because manufacturers prefer to locate in places that have more skilled and high quality of the workforce.

Education Equity In US society, the allocation of opportunity in a society that is becoming more dependent on knowledge and education.59 Education increases the income that generates greater economic 65

growth. Over a lifetime, Americans with college degrees earn 84% more than those with only high school degrees.60 Higher education leaves high fees and expenses aside, many students do not think that university is a viable prospect. In the situation, it is necessary to receive economic support from governments and investment in higher education and, more importantly, education systems that encourage and reward students based on their talent and ability.

Medical Services Most low-wage workers receive no health insurance, sick days, or pension plans from their employers. Moreover, the majority of US residents cannot afford medical treatment, so they can’t get ill and have no hope of retiring. In this situation, the government should negotiate and regulate pharmaceutical and medical device companies to control the price of medication and medical services. It is also important to reduce the administrative costs of dealing with different private health insurers. On the other hand, governments should also invest in public hospitals and medical research institutes so that hospitals and doctors could provide the same standard of service at a low cost.

A Global Perspective Income inequality around the globe is prevalent– from Qatar with a GDP per capita of almost $117,000 – to the poorest country in the world, the Central African Republic with a GDP $661 – then you find a 177-fold difference.61 The huge income gap among the countries results in the consequence of unequal progress. Some people are able to enjoy healthy, wealthy and happy lives while others continue to live in ill-health, poverty, and sorrow.

In the countries, children in Europe and North America could receive 15-20 years formal education while children in poor countries could learn less compared with rich countries. On the other hand, medical services and cares in poor and rich countries also have an obvious gap. For example, a child born in one of the countries with the worst health is 60-times more likely to die than a child born in a country with the best health.62 However, cities in Northern Europe generally have developed economies, best medical services and some of the highest standards of living in the world. They often score highly on surveys measuring the quality of life, such as the Human Development Index. The quality of education in much of Northern Europe is rated highly in international rankings. The reasons behind the global inequity are wars, industrialization, colonization, as well as current trade arrangements, financial systems, and global politics that impact inequality between nations, individuals and groups within countries Economic growth could make a great contribution to increase incomes in poor countries and mitigate the negative effect of inequity. For example, in poor countries, they can receive investment or private capital from abroad to develop industries and manufactures, or open the market to receive cheaper goods and services through global trade. In turn, the industrial and developed countries could make greater efforts to completely open their markets to developing country exports. So, this could benefit both rich and poor countries.

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Strategy Recommendations Through all strategic investment strategies, one of the primary goals of the City of Buffalo along with the Regional Economic Development Council of Western New York should be to strengthen equity in the region. One of the glaring disparities in the region are the differences between is the median household income between the metropolitan statistical area and the City of Buffalo, which shows a difference of almost $20,000 ($55,371 - MSA and $35,893 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; City). Additionally, within the City of Buffalo the Gini Index is higher than the national, .4945 compared to .4602, showing a high level of income inequality.

Strengthening Finance and Insurance - In Buffalo, Finance and Insurance is a strong performing industry both in terms of GDP coefficient/growth and location quotient. To maintain this performance, it is important to take a short-term, strengthening strategy. This could take the form of hosting financial and insurance related conferences to draw regional attention to the local industry. A strategy to help promote regional equity would be to promote government-backed lending in low-income areas and perhaps expanding and strengthening programs aimed at first-time home buyers. This would be particularly beneficial if done through community lending organizations such as the Buffalo Cooperative Federal Credit Union.

Management of companies - Due to the presence of the firm 43 North, a venture capital company, the Management of companies sector has a strong LQ and GDP coefficient. Strengthening this industry could take the form of making public sector funds available to 43 North to both encourage and subsidize the investment of companies based in underdeveloped neighborhoods, serving to strengthen both this sector and the economies of underdeveloped neighborhoods.

Educational services - The LQ for Educational services in the Buffalo area is strong, which is unsurprising given the number of universities located in the area (University at Buffalo, Buffalo State College, and Canisius College to name a few). The GDP for this industry has maintained relatively stable over the past 18 years with an average of approximately $700,000 and an average increase of 1.24% per year, leading to a small GDP coefficient. An effort to increase this while simultaneously increasing regional equity could conceivably be universities being investors in the Fruit Belt Community Land Trust. Anchor institutions can play vital roles in building community wealth and leveraging them to invest in the communities in which they operate would have positive benefits for all parties. Another possible investment strategy for educational institutions would be investing in community credit unions in underdeveloped areas, thus in a sense cross-pollinating the benefits of the recommendations set forth for the Finance and Insurance sector.

Health Care and Social Assistance â&#x20AC;&#x201C; The healthcare sector in the Buffalo region is quite strong and is growing very rapidly in terms of GDP. The quality of healthcare in the Buffalo region is widely regarded as top-notch, however the health outcomes for residents in the neighborhood where the medical corridor has chosen to locate, are poorer than the national average. Any investment to strengthen this industry must also seek to ameliorate the poor health conditions and outcomes in the very same neighborhood as the hospitals. This could be through the provision of subsidized 67

programs to local residents to and from which transportation is provided. Alternatively, tax subsidies may be offered to hospitals that hire hyper-locally, i.e. hospitals in the Fruit Belt neighborhood hiring residents of the Fruit Belt.

Investing Real Estate and rental and leasing - The ‘real estate and rental and leasing’ sector in Buffalo is incredibly strong in terms of GDP growth / coefficient, seeing a near 100% increase in GDP from 2001 to 2018 (97.06%). Its LQ on the other hand is below 1, showing that the job concentration is less in the Buffalo MSA than in the nation. An investing strategy is necessary to create more jobs in this industry and consequently increase the LQ. This could take the form of incentivizing local real estate companies to hire local building managers. Additionally, it should include the establishment of a job training program for careers in this field, such as leasing agents, site acquisition specialists, or as previously mentioned, building managers. This would lead to increasing employment in the sector and decreasing 0unemployment in the City of Buffalo, which has a higher rate of unemployment than the MSA (7.6% compared to 4.9%).

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing - The agriculture, forestry, and fishing industry shows a rate of specialization 73% lower than the national average but its GDP coefficient is 6,750$ showing that the industry does have potential. Investment could include the consolidation of land to evaluate what areas can be used for agriculture, forestry, and fishing. Consolidating land would also allow cities to identify parcels that are underutilized or abandoned to redistribute land to smaller farms and fisheries. Efforts should also be taken to improve agriculture, forestry, and fishing education to increase the number of people with this skill set needed for these jobs.

Professional, scientific, and technical services - The ‘Professional, scientific, and technical services’ has a strong GDP coefficient and a location quotient close to one. The sector is growing, however a weak concentration of jobs in this sector. A solution to this would be investments directed to cooperative programs with local universities that focus on computers and technology, and (given the high population of immigrants in the City of Buffalo) cooperative programs that train students in the field of translation services. This will be a mid-term investment strategy to generate a larger pool of employees in this sector.

Pioneering In the following next 3 to 7 years, Buffalo should focus on manufacturing, The city of Buffalo should provide more opportunities to attract the investment of the manufacturing companies. In order to achieve this goal, the tax benefit for the industry could be one of the most important factors that impact how much the stakeholder would like to put their money into this.

Buffalo should introduce new manufacturing and information technologies like automation, Blockchain and 3D printing through tax cuts and pro-business incentives, workforce development, and the cost advantages of lands and labor. Manufacturing relies on a digital environment, 68

which is no longer a dark and dirty environment and is friendly to environments. The majority of manufacturing facilities are now clean, bright, modern and exciting.

Technology is crucial in advanced manufacturing processes so that they should cooperate with colleges in Buffalo. Modern manufacturing is highly associated with skilled labor jobs. Workers in modern factories need to have numerous specialized skills and knowledge sets ranging from chemistry to computer coding/programming skills, to electrical engineering knowledge. For example, UB could share digital manufacturing labs with manufacturing companies and provide advanced technologies and talented students for manufacturing factories.

Manufacturing companies and organizations should cultivate more skilled workers in creative ways. Every industry relies on innovations, the skilled worker brings new ideas on the older system.

Manufacturing companies are working with organizations that employ veterans and minorities to work in factories. In order to achieve industrial equity to all workers, advanced manufacturing technologies companies should focus on skill set and align jobs to the talent they need rather than education alone.

Manufacturers are particularly reliant on infrastructure to receive their raw materials and ship out their goods to clients in a timely manner. On the other hand, developing public transit is also crucial to commuters working in factories. Because public transit could reduce the distances between workplace and home, and employers could save expenses on commuting, especially crucial for the employers that cannot afford cars and fuels.

Within all types of industrials, transportation and trade are crucial by the size of industrial. Buffalo’s geographical location gives benefits to transportation, a company such as amazon can set up their headquarters in Buffalo to help the local manufacturing company to ship their products to the Canada side or the rest of area in New York state with no expensive transportation cost, it benefits to both side, right now buffalo does not have a special transportation company help buffalo industrial to increase their trading ability.

Converting Each of Buffalo’s Converting Industries, ‘construction’ and ‘mining and quarrying’, fall within the lower left quadrant of our PICS model, indicating that they are the weakest performing in the region’s economy. With relatively low location quotients and declining GDP growth, long term development strategies must be employed to garner some strength within these sectors for the future. Converting the current development strategies of both ‘construction’ and ‘mining and quarrying’ industries in the region must be intended to increase employment and increase production for growth in GDP. Construction - Despite the concern of the construction sector in the Western New York regional economy, it is an integral sector in the development of infrastructure. Strategies that should be considered for the construction industry should be able to stabilize the industry, as much of the recent decline could be attributed to the recession which we have now come out of. Ensuring that the construction industry is able to provide increased numbers of local jobs for infrastructure 69

improvement developments through ESD and WNYREDC initiatives should be a goal for this sector.

Mining and Quarrying - Buffalo’s ‘mining and quarrying’ sector is lackluster, it has relatively stable output in terms of GDP, but a very low location quotient. This is indicative of an industry that is unable to maintain enough jobs within the region to be a competitive industry, however the stable GDP numbers suggest that there is not a decline in demand for the resources that are being mined within the Western New York Region. Maintaining the current production while increasing jobs that would benefit the sector in a way that makes it a more resilient industry in the region should be the long term converting strategy for the mining and quarrying industry.

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5. Conclusion Since the founding of colonial New Netherlands in the 17th century, New York State has led the economic development of the United States (NYSM). The Erie canal was particularly instrumental in securing the state’s role as a regional economic powerhouse. However, population changes, urban development trends, and industry shifts have produced widely different economic outcomes across different cities in New York. In this report, our analysis focused on the economic development strategies present in 4 major cities along the longest east-west Interstate Highway in the United States, I-90. Our case study of Buffalo is helpful in illustrating the economic challenges faced by large post-industrial cities, especially, in a rapidly changing economy. Regional Economic Development Council plans in each city have identified, both, unique and common targeted areas of investment that in conjunction with all other regional councils can help to cluster development strategies for a stronger and competitive regional economy. Within this comparison, we posit that Buffalo is uniquely positioned to catalyze broader regional economic growth and serve as a policy model for equitable and inclusive development.

Our analysis of historic and current economic trends using the PICS panel framework allowed us to understand the demand conditions, factor conditions; related and supporting industries necessary for firm strategy and competitive edge across our study areas. Moreover, our report highlights the opportunities to leverage community equity and inclusive growth through the implementation of strategies targeting said conditions.

Understanding Context of This Report Our current circumstances were inconceivable when our team began researching for this report.

Now at the end of the semester, it would be irresponsible to write a report on the regional economic development strategies without acknowledging the context from which we are writing and experiencing the world. A pandemic disease known as “Novel Coronavirus” or COVID-19 widely spread first in China, then Iran, South Korea, Italy, then a couple weeks later, the United States, specifically New York State. Now the majority of the globe has been impacted directly with cases, or indirectly with economic loss as a result of the Covid-19 Pandemic. In response to this pandemic, New York Governor Cuomo declared a State of Emergency on Saturday March 7, 2020. The entire city of Wuhan, China was quarantined. Universities are recalling students from study abroad trips mid semester and transitioning classes to online instruction only. Primarily schools also transitioned to remote learning for the remainder of the academic year. Airlines are projected to have lost over a billion dollars already due to travel restrictions. The estimate of total economic impact is yet to be determined, and likely will continue for the next decade or more. An unprecedented $2 trillion stimulus package — the “Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act — was passed on March 27th and included bailouts for the airline industry, paycheck protection loans for small businesses, direct cash payments to (some) adults under a certain income level (unless they are still claimed as dependents for tax purposes, which is the case for many college students), and much more. Now, in early May 2020, all non-essential New York businesses have been closed by the order of Governor Cuomo since March 20th 2020 in an effort to support “social distancing” guidelines issued by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Stimulus money, physical distancing and 72

social solidarity measures have helped “flatten the curve” of confirmed cases of Covid-19, while releveling that now, more than ever, the need for equitable economic development is clear.

As was the case with previous globally impactful events such as World War II and the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the impacts of this pandemic are only starting to be apparent in the short term while the long-term effects are speculative at best and will likely define a generation. The numbers of confirmed deaths and cases do not fully represent the amount of human suffering endured as a result of this virus. From an economic development standpoint, crises like this require planners and politicians to step back and ask, “What is this all for?” Following the neoliberal approach of growth for the sake of growth might be surpassed by a mandate for stable resiliency. Reduced reliance on international trade could increase domestic production. New York State economic development strategies to focus on placemaking, workforce development, tradable sectors, and innovation are likely to remain the same, but methods of implementation may have to be updated to meet changing demands in the market and shifting government policies.

“Resiliency” is going to be a buzz word in the coming decade, so it would be prudent of us to address it now. Resiliency is a system. Systems define the world around us. The success of these systems is measured by how well new elements introduced into the system are handled. The COVID-19 pandemic is a current example of a new element introduced into global healthcare, economic, social, and government systems that suggests all of these systems are currently inadequate to handle extreme circumstances. Although planning is involved in each of the systems listed above, the one that connects them all, yet is often overlooked by planning professionals and other leaders, are information systems. Data driven decision making is standard practice but the means of collecting and distributing quality data in a timely manner to all stakeholders — the function of information systems — is anything but standardized. The message about whether or not healthy Americans should be wearing masks in public is a prime example. Center for Disease Control (CDC) officials had the data to prove wearing some form of mask could reduce the probability of asymptomatic people spreading the virus. Public health officials understood both that telling the public they should be wearing masks would cause a run on the professional grade N-95 mask that was already in short supply and that masks are a visual symbol associated with people who are sick. The original CDC message was reconsidered less than a month later, during which time potentially millions of people were exposed to the virus unnecessarily, with the recommendation that standard surgical masks, or even any cloth covering could help reduce exposure when out in public and unable to maintain the recommended physical distance of six feet..

With this lesson in mind, it would be prudent of local economic development and government leaders to drastically improve information systems in Buffalo. One challenge is that information systems, particularly those related to international and national situations, are difficult to question at the city and regional levels. However, after once with pandemic subsidies, there will be a lot of trust to rebuild.

In the coming decade, there will be tremendous efforts to stabilize, reinvigorate, and grow our national and local economies in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Excellent information systems at the local level are crucial to the long-term prosperity of all stakeholders in Buffalo.

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Again, a successful information system has four parts: collection of quality data, distribution of quality data, acting in a timely manner, and communicating to all stakeholders. What is quality data about economic development in the Buffalo metropolitan statistical area? How is that data collected? How is it distributed? What is considered a timely manner for that data collection and distribution? And who are all of the stakeholders in this region? These are the questions local leaders need to answer first in order to create a successful information system applied to economic development in the region Although simultaneously cynical and optimistic, there is potential for latent value in this situation.

The oxford dictionary defines Latent as “(of a quality or state) existing but not yet developed or manifest; hidden or concealed.” By nature, latent value is challenging to find yet obvious in retrospect. Working across disciplines to overcome limits in individual understanding may unlock the latent economic value of disaster planning for the city of Buffalo. Studying the economic impacts of this pandemic further exacerbates existing inequities and supports our team’s findings to promote equitable economic development. As if the compounded effects of historic relining and environmental injustice were not enough, low income and marginalized groups have less flexibility to change daily routines to reduce potential exposure to disease. With that understanding, strategies to simultaneously protect the Western New York economy and equitably improve human wellbeing should be developed.

Further Research With all that being said, further research is absolutely necessary. At this time, no one can truly grasp the impact that the coronavirus will have on daily life going forward. With unemployment being reported by how many millions of people are being added on a weekly basis, and local firms going out of business, the economic landscape is being drastically altered as we complete this report. We began writing this report with no pandemic in sight and the strategies we developed reflect this.

But as we speak, firms are being forced to adjust to a new way of business. Some sectors may be wholly unaffected, but by and large any industry that relies on anything from shared workspaces to having large crowds of customers to conduct business have been ordered to stop these practices.

Companies that have the ability to continue business with their employees working from home have made this transition but others have not been able to do so and furloughs have been widely used with little idea of how long they will last. Further research should re-examine the strategies we developed within this new context. Without this reevaluation, this study could prove of little subsistence.

Some areas to consider: Education, all schools from elementary through higher education have switched to a distance-based learning curriculum for at least the remainder of the 2020 academic year if not for longer, how will this new format affect knowledge retention, graduation rates, or even institutional accreditation? Unemployment, as of the data we have available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hit 4.4% in March with a loss of 701,000 jobs, the highest rate we’ve seen since 1975. Some economists believe that April could see unemployment as high as 16% which would rival rates of the Great Depression of the 1930s and 40s, but this only the data can say, when it is available. This is a massive portion of the labor force without income and relying on Unemployment 74

Insurance until they can find work again. The government’s response will play a key role in how the economy will shift going forward. Reimagined workspaces, this pandemic has shown that companies which operate in an “office” based setting where employees were conducting work on computers already, can, even if at first tenuously, transition to a work from home model. While at the same time, companies where onsite operations are needed for either production/processing of a good or an in-person customer service, like restaurants, are being forced to redesign day to day operations. How will these changes affect how industries conduct business? How will the consumer experience change?

Going forward, the landscape of economic development strategies will look very different than it has in recent years. We believe this study has a sturdy foundation of how to plan for regional economic development and could prove extremely useful if it were to be updated to the current global conditions.

During this time of uncertainty, we should note the timeline of progress is defined by three reasonably certain time periods, “now”, “after-now”, and “post-Covid-19.” Right now, as of early May 2020, life is defined by physical distancing mandates, a majority of businesses in New York being closed or operating at minimal capacity (like restaurants only offering takeout), widescale work/learning from home, very limited Covid-19 testing capacity, and minimal Covid-19 contact tracing capacity.

“After now” will be achieved when testing and contact tracing develop to the point where some businesses are allowed to reopen, physical distancing measures remain, and people will still be working or learning from home to the extent possible. “Post-Covid-19” won’t be achieved until a vaccine for the virus has been developed, tested, approved, and widely distributed. This could take a long time, possibly between 18 months to two years, which means that the “After-now” period of time could be that long, which is too long to wait to address the many issues of economic equity addressed in this report.

Crises are times of great suffering, but also great opportunity. Let’s do our part in Buffalo-Niagara to take advantage of this opportunity to create a region that is economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable through equitable economic development.

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Appendicies Definitions (Briefly Describe types of charts, LQ, and other key terms) PICS Analysis The PICS Analysis, is a strategic planning technique derived from the general model of SWOT analysis.

PICS analysis is a tool used to identify industries that are considered pioneering, investing, converting or strengthening, which is defined by the relationship between location quotient (LQ) by employment and GDP. The purpose of this analysis design is to create an effective decision-making tool that can evaluate the strategic position of industries within the context of national competition and GDP output. It is intended to aid in the preliminary stages of economic development strategies that seek to leverage regionally specific industries and industry clusters to promote broader socio-economic growthâ&#x20AC;Ś(feel free to edit or discuss more).

Location Quotient Location quotient is a measure of the concentration of an industry in a place, in comparison to a larger region, in terms of employment. For this study, location quotient is a comparison between metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) and the nation. (find real definition and supplement with our own info) Income Inequality A Lorenz Curve is a visual representation of the percentage of income held by each quintile in a given geography, in other words, it shows the distribution of income. The X-axis shows the percentage of the population and the Y-axis shows the cumulative percentage of income held by the corresponding percentage of the population. For example, a point on the curve (40, 12.5) shows that the bottom 40% of the population received 12.5% of the income.

The Gini Coefficient is a calculation derived from the Lorenz Curve. The Gini coefficient is calculated by calculating the area between the Lorenz Curve and the line of perfect equality and dividing it by the total area under the line of perfect equality. Algebraically, this would be Gini Coefficient = (A)/ (A+B). It ranges from 0-1 with zero being perfect equality and 1 being perfect inequality.

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Albany Appendix Support for community investment in placemaking and downtown revitalization • Improve the Pedestrian Experience along Clinton Avenue ($2,818,010) • Create Live, Work and Exhibition Space for the Capital Region Artist Community ($2,000,000) • Activate the Skyway with a Dynamic Linear Pop-Up Park ($1,100,000) • Create the Clinton Market Collective at Federal Park ($1,000,000) • Create a Distinctive Gateway to the New Skyway ($800,000) • Enhance Connectivity and Pedestrian Safety throughout Quackenbush Square ($650,000) • Redesign Key Pedestrian and Vehicular Corridors for Safe and Stimulating Use ($400,000) • Light Up Livingston Avenue with an Illuminated Pedestrian Underpass ($250,000) • Add a Vehicular and Pedestrian Entrance to Quackenbush Garage ($250,000) • Provide Additional Units and Pathways to Stable, Affordable Housing at Ida Yarbrough Homes ($200,000) • Create Room for a Local Coffee Company to Grow into Its First Standalone Cafe ($160,240) • 12. Animate Clinton Square with Four Large-Scale Murals ($71,750)

Workforce Development Initiatives • Capital Region Manufacturing Intermediary Apprenticeship Program • Capital Region Software Developer Apprenticeship Program • Entertainment Technologies • Engineering Technician • Electronics Technician Apprenticeship Program • Gene F. Haas Center for Advanced Manufacturing Skill Life science cluster • NIH Grants • CEG Industry Attraction • University R&D • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals • ILÚM Health Solutions • Wadsworth Center • Biomedical Acceleration and Commercialization Center (BACC)

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Cluster Linkage Networks Cluster Linkages and Economic Diversification: Albany MSA (2016) Nonmetal Mining Agriculture

Aerospace & Defense Fishing

Lighting Construction

Recreational Goods Medical Devices

IT

Downstream Metals

Communications

Plastics Downstream Chemicals

Distribution & eCommerce

Marketing

Biopharma Education

Upstream Chemicals

Production Technology

Metal working

Automotive

Trailers & Appliances

Insurance Business Services Environmental Services

Upstream Metals

Transportation

Music

Hospitality

Forestry

Furniture

Water Transport

Video Production

Performing Arts

Vulcanized Materials

Jewelry

Livestock

Wood Products

Printing

Leather Products

Food Processing

Financial Services

Oil & Gas Paper & Packaging

Tobacco

Apparel

Textiles

Electric Power

Footwear

Coal Mining

Metal Mining

Cluster Specialization Legend

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Strong cluster above 90th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) ≥ 95th percentile & Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Strong cluster above 75th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) 90th-94th percentile, Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Other specialized clusters (LQ > 1.0)

Next closest cluster not meeting above criteria

Cluster Linkages and Economic Diversification: Syracuse MSA (2016) Nonmetal Mining Agriculture

Aerospace & Defense Fishing

Lighting Construction

Recreational Goods Medical Devices

IT

Downstream Metals

Communications

Marketing

Plastics

Downstream Chemicals

Distribution & eCommerce

Production Technology

Biopharma Education

Upstream Chemicals

Metalworking

Automotive

Trailers & Appliances

Insurance Business Services Environmental Services

Upstream Metals

Transportation

Music

Hospitality

Forestry

Furniture

Water Transport

Video Production

Performing Arts

Vulcanized Materials

Jewelry

Livestock

Wood Products

Printing

Leather Products

Food Processing

Financial Services

Oil & Gas Paper & Packaging

Tobacco

Apparel

Textiles

Electric Power

Footwear

Coal Mining Metal Mining

Cluster Specialization Legend Strong cluster above 90th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) ≥ 95th percentile & Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Strong cluster above 75th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) 90th-94th percentile, Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Other specialized clusters (LQ > 1.0)

Next closest cluster not meeting above criteria

79

Cluster Linkages and Economic Diversification: Rochester MSA (2016) Nonmetal Mining

Vulcanized Materials

Jewelry Agriculture

Performing Arts

Lighting

Furniture Construction

Recreational Goods

Water Transport

Video Production

Medical Devices

IT

Downstream Metals

Communications

Plastics Downstream Chemicals

Distribution & eCommerce

Marketing

Production Technology

Biopharma Education

Upstream Chemicals

Metalworking

Business Services

Printing

Leather Products

Food Processing

Financial Services

Oil & Gas Paper & Packaging

Tobacco

Automotive

Trailers & Appliances

Insurance

Environmental Services

Upstream Metals

Transportation

Music

Hospitality

Forestry

Livestock Aerospace & Defense

Fishing

Wood Products

Apparel

Textiles

Electric Power

Footwear

Coal Mining Metal Mining

Cluster Specialization Legend

80

Strong cluster above 90th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) ≥ 95th percentile & Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Strong cluster above 75th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) 90th-94th percentile, Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Other specialized clusters (LQ > 1.0)

Next closest cluster not meeting above criteria

Cluster Linkages and Economic Diversification: Buffalo MSA (2016) Wood Products

Nonmetal Mining Agriculture

Livestock

Performing Arts

Lighting

Furniture Construction

Recreational Goods

Water Transport

Fishing

Vulcanized Materials

Jewelry Aerospace & Defense

Video Production

Medical Devices

IT

Downstream Metals

Communications

Plastics Downstream Chemicals

Distribution Distribution && eCommerce eCommerce

Marketing

Production Technology

Biopharma Education

Upstream Chemicals

Metalworking

Automotive

Trailers & Appliances

Insurance Business Services Environmental Services

Upstream Metals

Transportation Transportation

Music

Hospitality

Forestry

Printing

Leather Products

Food Processing

Financial Services

Oil & Gas Paper & Packaging

Tobacco

Apparel

Textiles

Electric Power

Footwear

Coal Mining Metal Mining

Cluster Specialization Legend Strong cluster above 90th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) ≥ 95th percentile & Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Strong cluster above 75th percentile specialization

Between Cluster Relatedness (BCR) 90th-94th percentile, Related industries (RI) ≥ 20%

Other specialized clusters (LQ > 1.0)

Next closest cluster not meeting above criteria

81

Endnotes 1. McGahey, Richard. (2012). Regions, Clusters, and Reform: Economic Development Policy Under Andrew Cuomo.. Albany law review. Vol. 5 Issue 3. pp. 814 2.Michael E. Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (1990) 3. Mark Muro & Bruce Katz, Brookings Inst., The New “Cluster Moment”: How Regional Innovation Clusters Can Foster The Next Economy 4 (2010), https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-new-cluster-moment-how-regional-innovation-clusters-can-foster-the-next-economy/ 4. McGahey, Richard. (2012). Regions, Clusters, and Reform: Economic Development Policy Under Andrew Cuomo.. Albany law review. Vol. 5 Issue 3. pp. 819 5. Regions Clusters and Reform Economic Development Policy under Andrew Cuomo - McGahey 2012 p. 819 6. Central New York Regional Development Council. “2019 Central New York Progress Report.” 2019. https://regionalcouncils.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2019-10/2019CentralNYProgressReport.pdf p.6

7. Central New York Regional Development Council. “2019 Central New York Progress Report.” 2019. https://regionalcouncils.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2019-10/2019CentralNYProgressReport.pdf p.8

8. Central New York Regional Development Council. “2019 Central New York Progress Report.” 2019. https://regionalcouncils.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2019-10/2019CentralNYProgressReport.pdf p.8

9. Central New York Regional Development Council. “2019 Central New York Progress Report.” 2019. https://regionalcouncils.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2019-10/2019CentralNYProgressReport.pdf p.10

10. Central New York Regional Development Council. “2019 Central New York Progress Report.” 2019. https://regionalcouncils.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2019-10/2019CentralNYProgressReport.pdf p.11

11. Western New York Regional Development Council. “2019 Western New York Progress Report.”

2019. https://regionalcouncils.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2019-11/2019WesternNYProgressReport.pdf 12. DataUSA. “ACS 1-Year Estimates Syracuse MSA.” 2019. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/syracuse-ny-metro-area 13. DataUSA. “ACS 1-Year Estimates Syracuse MSA.” 2019. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/syracuse-ny-metro-area 14. DataUSA. “ACS 1-Year Estimates Syracuse MSA.” 2019. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/syracuse-ny-metro-area 15. DataUSA. “ACS 1-Year Estimates Syracuse MSA.” 2019. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/syracuse-ny-metro-area 16. DataUSA. “ACS 1-Year Estimates Syracuse MSA.” 2019. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/syracuse-ny-metro-area 82

17. DataUSA. “ACS 1-Year Estimates Syracuse MSA.” 2019. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/syracuse-ny-metro-area 18. DataUSA. “ACS 1-Year Estimates Syracuse MSA.” 2019. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/syracuse-ny-metro-area 19. DataUSA. “ACS 1-Year Estimates Syracuse MSA.” 2019. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/syracuse-ny-metro-area 20. DataUSA. “ACS 1-Year Estimates Syracuse MSA.” 2019. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/syracuse-ny-metro-area 21. Central New York Regional Development Council. “2019 Central New York Progress Report.”

2019. https://regionalcouncils.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2019-10/2019CentralNYProgressReport. pdf 22. Central New York Regional Development Council. “2019 Central New York Progress Report.”

2019. https://regionalcouncils.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2019-10/2019CentralNYProgressReport. pdf 23. Central New York Regional Development Council. “2019 Central New York Progress Report.”

2019. https://regionalcouncils.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2019-10/2019CentralNYProgressReport. pdf p.11 24. DataUSA. “ACS 5-Year Estimates Buffalo MSA.” 2019. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/buffalo-ny 25. Berube, Alan, Et. Al. “Metro Monitor 2019: Inclusion remains elusive amid widespread metro growth and rising prosperity” Brookings Institution. 2019. https://www.brookings.edu/research/ metro-monitor-2019-inclusion-remains-elusive-amid-widespread-metro-growth-and-rising-prosperity/

26. Ryan Donahue, Brad McDearmon, and Rachel Barker. (2017). “Commiting to inclusive growth: Lessons for metro areas from the Inclusive Economic Development Lab.” The Brookings Institution.https://www.brookings.edu/research/committing-to-inclusive-growth-lessons-for-metro-areas-from-the-inclusive-economic-development-lab/ 27. Berube, Alan, Et. Al. “Metro Monitor 2019: Inclusion remains elusive amid widespread metro growth and rising prosperity” Brookings Institution. 2019. https://www.brookings.edu/research/ metro-monitor-2019-inclusion-remains-elusive-amid-widespread-metro-growth-and-rising-prosperity/ 28. Ryan Donahue, Brad McDearmon, and Rachel Barker. (2017). “Commiting to inclusive growth: Lessons for metro areas from the Inclusive Economic Development Lab.” The Brookings Institution.https://www.brookings.edu/research/committing-to-inclusive-growth-lessons-for-metro-areas-from-the-inclusive-economic-development-lab/ 29. McGahey, Richard. (2012). Regions, Clusters, and Reform: Economic Development Policy Under Andrew Cuomo.. Albany law review. Vol. 5 Issue 3. pp. 826 83

30. Western New York Regional Development Council. “2019 Western New York Progress Report.”

2019. https://regionalcouncils.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2019-11/2019WesternNYProgressReport. pdf p.30 31. Western New York Regional Development Council. “2019 Western New York Progress Report.”

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43. Fink, J. (2019, September 26). Canadian firm to build $84 million high-tech Buffalo plant. Retrieved September 15, 2020, from https://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news/2019/09/26/canadian-firm-to-build-84-million-hightech-buffalo.html 44. Fink, J. (2019, September 26). Canadian firm to build $84 million high-tech Buffalo plant. Retrieved September 15, 2020, from https://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news/2019/09/26/canadian-firm-to-build-84-million-hightech-buffalo.html 45. “About - Northland Workforce Training Center.” About - Northland Workforce Training Center.

Accessed May 11, 2020. https://www.northlandwtc.org/about/.

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Partnership for the Public Good. 2018. https://ppgbuffalo.org/files/documents/data-demographics-history/a_city_divided__a_brief_history_of_segregation_in_the_city_of_buffalo.pdf 47. Berube, Alan, Et. Al. “Metro Monitor 2019: Inclusion remains elusive amid widespread metro growth and rising prosperity” Brookings Institution. 2019. https://www.brookings.edu/research/ metro-monitor-2019-inclusion-remains-elusive-amid-widespread-metro-growth-and-rising-prosperity/ 48. Maryam Khojasteh & Samina Raja (2017) Agents of Change: How Immigrant-Run Ethnic Food Retailers Improve Food Environments, Journal of Hunger & Environmental Nutrition, 12:3, 299327, DOI: 10.1080/19320248.2015.1112759 49. Walby, Sylvia. “The concept of inclusive economic growth: What would economic growth for pople look like?” Soundings: A journal of politics and culture 68 (2018): 138-154. https://www. muse.jhu.edu/article/690929.

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