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MARKET WATCH
Market Watch Market Watch
Trade & industry report with cap/hpi motorcycle editor Alan Elsworth
MARKET OVERVIEW
Going into the penultimate month of another unsettled year and trying to find a positive to talk about is getting complicated!
Worldwide financial woes have been compounded in the UK by a new government trying to make its mark and not necessarily hitting the spot the first time around. The fallout had some institutions taking advantage to make short-term gains at the expense of a dip in sterling, spooking the market and leaving a bad taste in the mouth of many, leading to prolonged negativity. All this happened very quickly, and in some quarters was seen as a knee-jerk reaction that will settle over the next few months.
The strong dollar causing ructions is not limited to the UK, with most of the world on the receiving end. Interest rates going up will cause some pain, but the rise was inevitable after a pandemicinitiated extended period of record low rates.
The knock-on effect for dealers is that the cost of borrowing will increase for consumers and dealers alike, and the way that will affect the industry will not be positive in the short term.
NEW MARKET
SEPTEMBER’S REGISTRATION figures, the latest available from the MCIA, were disappointing following August’s positive performance. Total sales were down by 1288, or -9.6%, not good news now that the lockdown affect is out of the equation. Over the first nine months, the 95,958 registrations are still 3.7% more than in 2021, or in real numbers, plus 3384 units.
The only sector in the positive worth noting is Touring, with an increase of 27.2%, but the caveat is that the sector is the smallest in size, so the real number is only 73 more bikes than the previous year. The Custom and Naked sectors both had a poor month in all metrics, and for the year to date are the only two sectors recording negative figures so far. Even the resurgent moped market took a kicking in September with a reduction of 130 units from last year (-15.6%).
All engine size bands were in a negative position for the month. Still, a point worth mentioning is that the 51-125cc band, which has been the talking point of the last couple of years with commuter and delivery riders in the ascendency during restrictions, now appears to have plateaued.
With only a few months left to compare 2022 to 2019 (the last year the trade could be described as operating “normally”), the bigger picture for the nine months to date paints a better view and highlights the post-Covid changes. Sub 125cc machinery now constitutes 42.7% of the market, up from 36.3% in 2019, and most of the others are close, but there was a slight slip in 651-1000cc and a significant change in the largest-capacity band. The concern when looking at total numbers as we move into 2023 is that, if the two smaller engine size bands return to historical levels, there could be a contraction in total registrations if larger capacities continue to perform as they currently are. What is evident, though, is that larger machines that attract PCP deals are down, leaving the distinct possibility that when the country comes out of its current problems in three years plus, it points to there being a continuation of the lack of stock. This leads to increases over a period of time in forecast values and is not expected to reduce. The short term might be a different story.
ELECTRICAL SURGE
Electric-powered two-wheelers accounted for just over 5.3% of the market in 2021, compared with 18% of new cars sold last year being electric/plug-in hybrid. This is up 2.3% from 2020 and it is a sign of things to come that the Super Soco CPx scooter became the first electric model to get into the overall top ten of the sales charts. The market for electric powered machines will inevitably continue to grow in the next couple of years; as a result, some big name brands are starting their preparations. Progress to market is at different stages, but most of the major manufacturers have prototypes in development, and some are soon to hit the roads. AUCTION OVERVIEW
THE LACK OF ENTRIES IN THE sales halls has changed little over this latest research period. Again, the lower percentage sold from entries is noticeable. Still, unlike recent sales, the overall return, compared to CAP figures, has moved to a couple of points under 100%, which is typical for the time of year and will flip as the year changes. Analysis of the results points to around 50% of entries finding new homes.
USED MARKET
It happens every year, but as the nights draw in and temperatures fall (as does more rain), the trade experiences a slowdown and a reduction in showroom footfall.
Traditionally, this has lead to prices easing during the autumn, but, as has been mentioned regularly in this column, the price differential between high and low seasons has closed as stock availability has reduced. The continuing shortages of both new and good quality used motorcycles is keeping prices from sinking as much as they would have historically. Consequently, only a slight easing in reported prices for some models has been applied to this month’s figures but, as research suggests, in the next few weeks the quest for 2023 stock will begin, with strengthening of prices set to resume.
Looking to from only
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