Market Watch

Trade & industry report with cap/hpi motorcycle editor Alan Elsworth

New Market

THE LATEST MCIA FIGURES FOR NEW registrations in May, as we move to the halfway point of the year, are not indicating much positive news for the industry, with the month finishing down 8.7% versus the same month in 2022. Cumulative five-month year-to-date registrations were down 5.2%.

As the market gets back into a mix of types and models similar to those seen before the pandemic, the big winners over the last three years will inevitably lose ground, and consequently the moped, electric and scooter segments all suffered large declines.

The moped sector, which benefited from increased use by the delivery industry during the pandemic, reversing the previous decade of decline, now looks like it is returning to the market it had four years ago. The month-onmonth decline of 29% is, in real numbers, fewer than 200 units but is still of concern. To give a better comparison, look at pre-pandemic figures from 2019 when, in May of that year, the moped

Used Market

Anecdotal reports during research suggest there is still a good market out there for used machines, and sourcing stock has become somewhat easier. Footfall in dealerships has reportedly reduced over the last couple of months, but this has not adversely affected purchasing at what is the high point of the selling cycle. During this last research period, there

Motorcycle Futures

THE CONFLICT IN EASTERN Europe is still with us, with little sign of resolution, however it has now become the new normal and is having less of an effect on the global economy. Energy prices are on the way down, and diesel has reduced from 20p per litre more total was 487. This compares to 435 this year and, more telling, 613 last year.

The big hit in total numbers when the scooter sector is stripped out is encouraging for the motorcycle part of the industry, as it is only down 2.5% compared to last year. However, scooters lost a quarter of their sales compared to May last year, again suggesting a market returning to normality. Scooter numbers for May of 2397 are significantly lower, down 25.6% compared with May 2022 which registered 3220. However, some positives must be taken when looking at the last “normal” year (2019), where there were 2367 registrations in May. And if you look at the total year-to-date registrations for both years, this May at 10,889 registrations is so close to the 2019 total of 10,871 you couldn’t fit a ciggy paper between them.

Another hint of a return to previous norms, after the consequences of the much-mentioned delivery and commuting boom, is a fall in registrations of smaller capacity machines and a has been no feedback of much change of the opinions of trade buyers regarding pricing, as there is still plenty of the summer season to do business. Therefore this month’s data has only received minor alterations where research has suggested change is required, but in the middle of “the season”, despite external forces, no suggestion of lowering prices has yet to be communicated to us. than petrol back to a few pence, similar to the price differential we are more used to. The positive that will likely follow is that transported goods will have some inflationary pressure relieved, helping with recent continued reductions.

Inflation forecasts are around 5% collapse in electric registrations. On the positive side, the larger 500cc and over classes, where the bigger profit margin machines sit, is looking brighter, particularly 751-1000cc, where manufacturers have been advertising moneysaving encouragements to attract customers, competitive finance rates being high on the list.

Auction Overview

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN CIRCUMSTANCES around the auction salerooms over the last month in many respects, but one difference is in the number of entries. A recent sale at BCA saw only 59 lots go under the hammer but, on the plus side, a high 76% of lots were sold and overall they achieved 101% of CAP reported prices. The differences between top-grade and lower-quality machines are noticeable in realised prices, indicating that reconditioning is a worry, where the timescale from purchase to delivery to display is a major concern.

for Q4, with an average of just over 7% for the year, and of less than 3% into 2024. Interest rates are still vulnerable to possible increases, up to another point above the current base rate, but predictions are for the UK economy to escape recession with a slight increase in

GDP. The effects will continue to stifle growth in some businesses for a couple of years, including our industry which, although it has remained comparatively strong, is now looking less optimistic with consumer spending forecast to remain flat well into next year.