Market Watch

Trade & industry report with cap/hpi motorcycle editor Alan Elsworth

New Market

THE MCIA’S FEBRUARY REGISTRATION FIGURES continued January’s negative start to the year. While two months data doesn’t really indicate exactly how this year’s sales will end up, the downturn does leave room for concern. The big selling, plate-change month of March will give a more accurate indication for the first quarter period. Initial signs from early feedback suggest a similar level of business as in March last year.

The bottom-line sales number was down 7.6% for February, 398 units less than last year’s 5212. Comparing two month year-to-date data against 2022, that’s 7.2% down, or 820 units less than the 11,399 of 12 months ago.

Used Market

The season starts in earnest as the days lengthen and, hopefully, there is warmer weather than has been seen recently. Feedback from dealers so far has been positive – certainly there is a brighter outlook than from some other industries.

The word is that even though showroom traffic is perceptibly lower, the actual number of sales is similar to the past couple of years over the same period. As was seen during the last global meltdown back in 2008, the PTW business is feeling the pinch less than many other industries.

After the usual peak at the beginning of the year, prices for secondhand motorcycles and scooters have stabilised in advance of the potential rush of new plate swappers entering the market.

Although cap-hpi is primarily a trade guide, we also include retail price indicators. Recent conversations with dealers have suggested that margins must increase as sales tighten and costs escalate. This has not

A continuing and rapid change in the model mix is starting to become very evident within the market. Smaller commuter and delivery bike registrations are now returning to some sort of normality. After the sharp rise in moped sales during the Covid years, there has been a return to more typical market demand, which has resulted in a significant decline of 39.9% for the month of February. Remember, though, the sector is still relatively small in actual unit number terms.

Motorcycle categories faired a little better and were only a couple of hundred units fewer than last year. There were good performances from been an industry-wide discussion in the past, but in a time of “needs must”, it a subject that requires more attention. More research will be carried out with a view to increasing the suggested margins in our figures. Prices this month have moved in both directions, as our research dictates. What is worth a mention, though, is that soon-to-be modern classics that still fit into the age range we report on, are getting scarcer and have increased in value. the Modern Classic and Competition sectors, but again, these are only small numbers and they are not picking up the slack from the bigger-selling sectors, particularly Scooter, which lost a fifth of its sales compared to 2022.

Elsewhere, the proposed ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel-powered machinery, scheduled for 2035, could be challenged after several EU nations, including Germany, Italy, Poland and Bulgaria opposed the move. As Germany is the major influencer in the bloc, its stance could give hope to many who believe electric power is not the only way to an environmentally friendly future.

Auction Overview

OUR RESEARCH OF AUCTION RESULTS FROM February indicates that there was more stability than had been the case in the previous month, with average sale prices coming in around 4% lower than the reported CAP figures.

Hovering at just below three-quarters sold, the conversion rate was better than it had been for overwinter sales, but it was still below the highs seen just after coming out of the pandemic lockdowns when stock was perhaps more challenging to get hold of. That said, there was a higher number of sold units which fell outside the parameters we use for values i.e., bikes with bits missing or crash damaged. So, as has been seen for a few years now, it seems the focus for buyers is leaning more toward lower workshop times and reducing reconditioning costs.