Brent Local Assessment report

January 2011

BRENT LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT Final report prepared by CLES Consulting and Shared Intelligence Presented to London Borough of Brent Council

CLES Consulting is the trading name of CLES European Research Network. A not-for-profit company registered as a limited company no. 2467769. VAT no 519493812. The Centre for Local Economic Strategies is a company limited by guarantee no 4242937 with charitable status no 1089503

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CONTENTS 1

ECONOMIC CONTEXT 1.1 Local Economic Assessments 1.2 The Brent economy in context 1.3 The international and national context 1.4 The ‘Eurozone’ economies 1.5 The UK’s current economic performance 1.5.1 Current performance and outlook 1.5.2 Future growth 1.6 London: Economic context 1.7 London: Economic future 1.8 London: Spatial development 1.8.1 West London 1.8.2 North London and the North West London Corridor 1.9 Brent: Local context and economic geography 1.9.1 Location and infrastructure 1.9.2 Functional geography and workforce flows 1.10 Summary findings

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ONE BOROUGH 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Background: Growing the labour force and skills 2.2.1 Demographics 2.2.2 Population estimates and census 2.2.3 Neighbourhood population change 2.2.4 Age profile of population 2.2.5 Age by London borough 2.2.6 Diversity 2.3 Ethnicity across London and Brent 2.3.1 Religion 2.3.2 Ethnicity and employment rates 2.3.3 Population density 2.3.4 Population and migration 2.3.5 Deprivation 2.3.6 Local neighbourhood typology of change and deprivation 2.4 The labour market 2.4.1 Workforce: economic activity and employment 2.4.2 Employment rates and inward migration 2.4.3 Worklessness and benefit claimants 2.4.4 An overview of benefits claimants 2.4.5 Job seekers allowance claimants 2.4.6 Incapacity Benefits (IB), health and well-being 2.4.7 Health and well-being in Brent 2.4.8 Lone Parent Income Support (LPIS) 2.4.9 Occupations 2.4.10 Earnings 2.4.11 Resident skills and qualifications 2.5 Education 2.5.1 Key Stage 2 (Literacy and numeracy at age 11) 2.5.2 Key Stage 4 (14 to 16 years) GCSE and equivalent results 2.5.3 Child poverty 2.5.4 Early years learning 2.6 Engaging children and young people in learning and development 2.7 Summary findings 2.8 Context and priorities

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BUSINESS PERFORMANCE 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Background: Drivers of business development and enterprise 3.2.1 Economic output 3.2.2 Size profile of businesses 3.2.3 Who works where? Employee distribution by size of business 3.2.4 Enterprise formation: business start-ups 3.2.5 Enterprise formation: growth 3.2.6 Enterprise formation: self-employment 3.2.7 Enterprise stock: business density 3.2.8 Enterprise stock by industry sector: Results from the IDBR 3.2.9 Enterprise survival: measuring resilience 3.2.10 Enterprise and the informal economy 3.3 Driving productivity: innovation, research and development 3.3.1 Employment in Knowledge Businesses Industries (KBIs) 3.4 Business and local employment 3.5 Local concentrations of employment 3.6 Full-time, part-time employment by gender 3.7 Change in the number of jobs by ward in Brent, 2003 to 2008 3.8 Business and local economic output (GVA) 3.9 Business productivity (GVA per employee) 3.10 Employment and GVA past trends 3.11 Employment and GVA forecasts 3.11.1 Employment forecasts by location, 2010 to 2020 3.11.2 Baseline GVA forecasts, 2010 to 2020 3.11.3 Baseline forecasts - employment and GVA, 2010 to 2020 3.12 Employer skill needs and workforce development 3.12.1 Current and future skills needs 3.12.2 Skills difficulties 3.12.3 Workforce development 3.13 Key sectors and spatial development 3.13.1 Business services 3.13.2 Construction 3.13.3 Creative / New Media industries 3.13.4 Food and drink manufacturing 3.13.5 Healthcare (including medicine) 3.13.6 Hotels and restaurants 3.13.7 Transport and communications 3.13.8 Wholesale and Retail 3.13.9 Low Carbon and environmental technologies 3.14 Economic performance and spatial development 3.14.1 Land-use categories 3.14.2 Demand for land 3.14.3 Opportunity areas 3.14.4 Other priority areas including town centres and the North Circular 3.14.5 The North Circular Road 3.15 Summary findings 3.16 Context and priorities

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QUALITY OF LIFE: HOUSING, TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT 4.1 Introduction 4.2 The residential offer 4.2.1 Households 4.2.2 Profile of dwellings by tenure and type 4.2.3 Housing affordability 4.3 Connectivity and transport 4.3.1 Transport in West London 4.3.2 Road transport 4.3.3 Public transport 4.3.4 Crossrail and High Speed Rail 2 4.4 Sustainable economic development 4.4.1 Quality of life and environmental considerations 4.4.2 London and the low carbon economy 4.4.3 Fuel poverty 4.4.4 Commercial waste management 4.4.5 Water management and flood risk 4.4.6 Green Infrastructure 4.5 Summary findings 4.6 Context and priorities

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FIGURES Figure 1: Forecast size of international economies , US=100 in 2050........................................................ 16 Figure 2: Employment density – employees per square kilometre - London, 2008 .................................... 21 Figure 3: Employment in Outer London, Inner London and GB by broad sector, 2008 .............................. 22 Figure 4: Employment rates across London Boroughs ............................................................................. 23 Figure 5: Employment levels across London Boroughs, 1989, 2001, 2007 ................................................ 23 Figure 6: Location of economic activity and employee jobs across London ............................................... 24 Figure 7: London Borough of Brent geography and communications links ................................................ 27 Figure 8: Key town centres in Brent ...................................................................................................... 28 Figure 9: Critical infrastructure, opportunity areas, 2008 ....................................................................... 29 Figure 10: Commuting flows to and from Brent ...................................................................................... 30 Figure 11: Commuting and levels of self-containment within Brent .......................................................... 31 Figure 12: Commuting trends in Brent and London ................................................................................ 32 Figure 13: Survey estimates of net flows (Brent’s workplaces), 2008 ....................................................... 34 Figure 14: Survey estimates of net flows (Brent’s residents), 2008 .......................................................... 34 Figure 15: Mid-year estimates of total population (percent change from 2000 to 2008) ............................ 39 Figure 16: Mid-year estimates of total population, 1990 to 2008 (Index, 1990=100) ................................ 39 Figure 17: Mid-year estimates of working age population, 1992 to 2008 (Index, 1992=100)...................... 40 Figure 18: Population projections ONS and OE (percent change from 2000 to 2008) ................................. 40 Figure 19: Two year population change (top) and turnover (bottom) in Brent, 2007 ................................ 41 Figure 20: Population aged 0 to 14 years old, 2009 ................................................................................ 42 Figure 21: Population aged 75+ years old, 2009 .................................................................................... 42 Figure 22: Residents regarding their ethnicity as from an Indian background ........................................... 44 Figure 23: Residents regarding their ethnicity as from a Black/Black British background ........................... 44 Figure 24: Residents regarding their ethnicity as from a White Irish background ...................................... 45 Figure 25: Population density in London, 2008 ....................................................................................... 46 Figure 26: Migration patterns across London, 2002 to 2007 .................................................................... 47 Figure 27: New National Insurance Registrations of Non-UK Nationals, 2009 ........................................... 47 Figure 28: IMD, Percentage of neighbourhoods (LSOAs) in bottom 10% nationally .................................. 48 Figure 29: IMD, Percentage of neighbourhoods (LSOAs) in bottom 20% nationally .................................. 48 Figure 30: Indices of Multiple Deprivation scores within Brent, 2007 ....................................................... 49 Figure 31: Indices of Multiple Deprivation by sub-domain, 2007 .............................................................. 50 Figure 32: A typology of deprived neighbourhoods in Brent .................................................................... 51 Figure 33: Employment rates (percentage of the working age population), 2009 ..................................... 55 Figure 34: Employment rates, 2004 to 2009 .......................................................................................... 55 Figure 35: ILO unemployment (percentage of working age population), 2004 to 2010 ............................. 57 Figure 36: Total key benefit claimants (JSA, IB/ESA and LP), 1999 to 2009 ............................................. 58 Figure 37: JSA claimants, volume by ward in Brent, 2010 ....................................................................... 59 Figure 38: JSA claimants (percentage of the working age population), 2000 to 2010 ................................ 60 Figure 39: JSA claimant trends over longer time-frame, 1992 to 2010 ..................................................... 60 Figure 40: JSA claimant count, 2009 ..................................................................................................... 61 Figure 41: Change in JSA claimants, 2007 to 2009 ................................................................................. 61 Figure 42: Incapacity Benefit, volume by ward in Brent, 2009 ................................................................. 63 Figure 43: Incapacity benefit claimants, 1999 to 2009 ............................................................................ 64 Figure 44: IB claimant count, 2009 ....................................................................................................... 65 Figure 45: Change in IB claimants, 2007 to 2009 .................................................................................... 65 Figure 46: Male life expectancy, average 2003 to 2007 .......................................................................... 68 Figure 47: Female life expectancy, average 2003 to 2007 ....................................................................... 68 Figure 48: LPIS claimants volume by ward in Brent, 2009 ....................................................................... 69 Figure 49: LPIS benefit claimants, 1999 to 2009 .................................................................................... 70 Figure 50: Occupations of residents in employment, 2009 ...................................................................... 71 Figure 51: Brent Residents, mean annual income - London Comparison (£), 2009 .................................... 72 Figure 52: Brent Workers, mean annual income - London Comparison (£), 2009 ...................................... 72 Figure 53: Mean annual income across Brent, (dark brown=high income) 2008 ....................................... 73 Figure 54: Qualifications of the resident population, 2008 ....................................................................... 75 Figure 55: Qualifications of the resident population, London boroughs 2008 ............................................ 75 Figure 56: Spatial distribution of educational attainment in London - children gaining 5 A* to C grades at end of Key Stage 4 (KS4) %, 2009 ............................................................................................................... 78 Figure 57: Child Well-being Index: ranking of deprivation ....................................................................... 79 Figure 58: Child Poverty, 2008, by Lower Super Output Area .................................................................. 80 Figure 59: VAT registrations per 10,000 residents, 1997 to 2007 ............................................................. 91 CLES Consulting

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60: Net change in number of VAT registrations by sector, 1997 to 2007 ........................................ 91 61: VAT stock of registered businesses per 10,000 residents, 1997 to 2007 ................................... 93 62: Two year business survival rates, 1995 to 2003 ..................................................................... 95 63: Change in levels of employment in KBI, (Index 2003=100), 2003 to 2008 ............................... 96 64: Employment by broad industrial classification, 2008 ............................................................... 98 65: Change in employment by broad industrial classification, 2008 ............................................... 98 66: Full-time and part-time employment, index 1998=100 .......................................................... 100 67: GVA by broad industrial classification, 2008 ......................................................................... 103 68: Change in GVA by broad industrial classification, 2008 ......................................................... 103 69: Productivity (GVA per employment) by broad industrial classification, 2008 ........................... 105 70: Change in GVA per employment by broad industrial classification, 2008 ................................ 105 71: Change in GVA and employment by industrial classification, 2003 to 2008 ............................. 106 72: Change in GVA per employment by Location Quotient, 2003 to 2008 .................................... 106 73: London borough baseline employment forecast, OE 2010 to 2020 ......................................... 109 74: London borough baseline employment forecast, GLA 2010 to 2020 ....................................... 109 75: Forecast change by broad industrial classification, Brent, 2010 to 2020 ................................. 111 76: London net requirement for labour and skills 2010 to 2020 .................................................... 112 77: Percentage of the population receiving job-related training, 2009 ......................................... 116 78: Percentage of the population receiving job-related training, 2004 to 2009 ............................. 116 79: Business services in London (number of employees), 2008 ................................................... 121 80: Business services in London (percentage of total employment), 2008 .................................... 121 81: Construction in London (number of employees), 2008 .......................................................... 123 82: Construction in London (percentage of total employment), 2008 ........................................... 123 83: Creative / New Media sector employees in London, 2008 ...................................................... 125 84: Concentration of music and performing arts employees in London, 2008 ............................... 125 85: Concentration of software employees in London, 2008 ......................................................... 126 86: Concentration of radio and television related employees in London, 2008 .............................. 126 87: Concentration of designer fashion employees in London, 2008 ............................................. 127 88: Hotels and restaurants in London (number of employees), 2008 ........................................... 134 89: Hotels and restaurants in London (percentage of total employment), 2008 ............................ 134 90: Transport and communications in London (number of employees), 2008 ............................... 135 91: Transport and communications in London (% of total employment), 2008 ............................. 136 92: Low Carbon and environmental economy (turnover), 2008 , .................................................. 140 93: Low Carbon and environmental economy (companies), 2008 ................................................. 140 94: Low Carbon and environmental economy (jobs- equivalent), 2008 ......................................... 140 95: Originating wards of people aged 16 to 74 working in Park Royal ......................................... 149 96: Change in the number of households, 1981 to 2006 (index 1996=100) ................................. 160 97: Change in average house prices (Index 1995=100), 1995 to 2009 ........................................ 161 98: Median house prices by Middle Super Output area in London, 2008 ...................................... 162 99: Ratio of lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings, 1999 to 2009 .......................... 163 100: Road connections in Brent and West London ...................................................................... 165 101: Traffic delays at morning peak (Blue lines = high, >1.5 minutes per km) ............................ 166 102: Brent public transport map ................................................................................................ 167 103: Brent public transport – commuting by bus ........................................................................ 168 104: Brent private transport – commuting by car ....................................................................... 168 105: Bakerloo Line (journeys by distance travelled - km), 2010 .................................................. 169 106: Metropolitan and Jubilee lines (journeys by distance travelled - km), 2010 .......................... 170 107: London underground connections....................................................................................... 171 108: Public transport accessibility (red=higher access, white=very low access) ............................ 171 109: Major transport schemes and opportunities in London ........................................................ 172 110: Estimated proportions of households in London in fuel poverty ........................................... 176 111: Indicative flood risk, London, 2008 ..................................................................................... 177 112: Green-space (green shading) in relation to IMD (dark=high deprivation) ............................. 178 113: Green-space (green shading) and ‘open space deficiency’ (red shading) .............................. 178 114: Brent, Willesden and Barnet (part) left to right: 1822, 1877, 1902 ....................................... 187

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TABLES Table 1: Summary of economic prospects, UK, 2010 to 2015 .................................................................. 18 Table 2: Mid-year estimates of total population, 2000 to 2008 ................................................................. 37 Table 3: Mid-year estimates of population by age group, 2008 ............................................................... 41 Table 4: Ethnic breakdown (as a proportion of the total population) ........................................................ 43 Table 5: Working age employment rate broad ethnic group, 2009 ........................................................... 45 Table 6: Key â&#x20AC;&#x201C; A typology of deprived neighbourhoods within Brent ........................................................ 51 Table 7: Economic activity and employment rates by gender and ethnicity, 2009 ..................................... 54 Table 8: ILO unemployment (percentage of working age population), 2000 to 2009 ................................ 57 Table 9: Total key benefit claimants (JSA, IB/ESA and LP), 2009 ............................................................ 58 Table 10: JSA claimants by duration (percentage of total JSA claimants), 2010 ........................................ 59 Table 11: JSA claimants by age (percentage of total JSA claimants), 2010 ................................................ 59 Table 12: JSA claimants, by ethnicity, 2010 (percentage of total claimants) ............................................. 62 Table 13: JSA claimants by duration, 2010 (percentage of total claimants) .............................................. 62 Table 14: JSA claimants by age and ethnicity, 2010 (percentage of total claimants) ................................. 62 Table 15: Incapacity benefit claimants by duration, 2009 ....................................................................... 63 Table 16: Incapacity benefit claimants by age, 2009 .............................................................................. 63 Table 17: Incapacity benefit / severe disablement, conditions of claimants, 2009 ..................................... 67 Table 18: LPIS claimants by duration, 2009 ........................................................................................... 69 Table 19: LPIS benefit claimants by age, 2009 ....................................................................................... 69 Table 20: Full time resident and workplace gross median weekly earnings, 2002 to 2009 ......................... 72 Table 21: Qualifications of resident working age population, 2008 .......................................................... 73 Table 22: Change in the qualifications of resident working age population, 2008 ..................................... 74 Table 23: Key Stage 2 Percentage of Pupils achieving Level 4 or above in English .................................... 76 Table 24: Key Stage 2 Percentage of Pupils achieving Level 4 or above in Maths .................................... 76 Table 25: Key Stage 2 Percentage of Pupils achieving Level 4 or above in Science .................................. 76 Table 26: Schools where fewer than 55% of pupils achieve level 4 or above in both English and Maths at KS2 .................................................................................................................................................... 76 Table 27: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 - percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A* to C, 2005 to 2010 ...................................................................................................... 77 Table 28: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 - percentage of pupils 5+ A* to C including English and Maths ................................................................................................. 77 Table 29: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 - percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A* to G ........................................................................................................................... 77 Table 30: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 - percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A* to C, 2009/10 cohort .................................................................................................... 77 Table 31: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 - percentage of pupils 5+ A* to C inc. English and Maths, 2009/10 cohort ................................................................................ 77 Table 32: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 - percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A* to G, 2009/10 cohort ................................................................................................... 78 Table 33: Reduction in the number of schools where fewer than 30% of pupils achieve 5 or more A* to C grades at GCSE including English and Maths ......................................................................................... 78 Table 34: A Level Results - Average point score per candidate ............................................................... 78 Table 35: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 - percentage of all pupils with 5+ A* to C by Free School Meal eligibility ............................................................................. 81 Table 36: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 - percentage of pupils with 5+ A*-C including English & Maths, by Free School Meal eligibility ................................................... 81 Table 37: Number of free early education places taken up by three and four year olds ............................. 81 Table 38: Achievement of at least 78 points across the Early Years Foundation Stage with at least 6 in each of the scales in Personal, Social and Emotional Development and Communication, Language and Literacy 82 Table 39: Narrowing the gap between the lowest achieving 20% in the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile and the rest ........................................................................................................................................ 82 Table 40: Proportion of 16 to 18 year olds who are classified as NEET .................................................... 83 Table 41: Number of workplaces by size of business, 2008 ..................................................................... 88 Table 42: Change in number of workplaces by size of business, 2003 to 2008 ......................................... 89 Table 43: Number of employees by size of business, 2008 ..................................................................... 89 Table 44: Change in number of employees by size of business, 2003 to 2008 .......................................... 89 Table 45: New VAT registrations per 10,000 residents, 1997 to 2007 ....................................................... 90 Table 46: VAT/PAYE registered businesses (<50 employees) with year-on-year employment growth, 2003 to 2008 ................................................................................................................................................... 92 Table 47: Residents that are self-employed, 2005 to 2010 ...................................................................... 92 CLES Consulting

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VAT stock of registered businesses per 10,000 residents, 1997 to 2007 .................................... 93 VAT stock of registered businesses per 10,000 residents, March 2009 ...................................... 94 Change in stock of VAT registrations per 10,000 residents, 1997 to 2007 ................................. 94 Total employees in KBIs; and percentage of total employment, 2008 ....................................... 96 Employment by broad industrial classification, 2003 to 2008 .................................................... 97 Employment concentration (LQs for UK=1 and London=1) ...................................................... 99 Employees by full and part-time status and by gender category ............................................. 100 Employees numbers (excluding self-employed) by ward, 2008 ............................................... 101 GVA by broad industrial classification, 2003 to 2008 .............................................................. 102 GVA per employee by broad industrial classification, 2008 ..................................................... 104 Employment forecasts by broad industrial classification, 2010 to 2020 .................................... 107 Employee forecasts (excluding self-employed) by borough, 2010 to 2020 ................................ 108 GVA forecasts by broad industrial classification, 2010 to 2020 ................................................. 110 Employers reporting skill gaps within their workforce, 2005 to 2009 ....................................... 114 Employers reporting local skill shortage vacancies, 2009 ........................................................ 115 Business services sector – key data ....................................................................................... 120 Construction sector – key data ............................................................................................. 122 Creative / New Media sector – key data (includes self-employed) ........................................... 127 Creative / New Media business enterprises by sub-sector, 2008 ............................................. 128 Creative / New Media employees by sub-sector, 2008 ........................................................... 128 Food and drink manufacturing sector – key data .................................................................... 129 Healthcare sector – key data (including social care and medicine) .......................................... 130 Value and volume of tourism spending / activity for Brent, 2007 ............................................ 132 Hotels and restaurants sector – key data ............................................................................... 132 Transport and communications sector – key data ................................................................... 136 Wholesale and retail, 2003 to 2008 ....................................................................................... 138 Comparison sales densities, 2008 .......................................................................................... 138 Low Carbon and environmental economy breakdown (LDA definition), 2009 ........................... 139 B1, B2 and B8 land in SEAs, BEAs, LEAs, in Brent 2009 ......................................................... 143 Total designated employment land in Brent, 2009 ................................................................. 144 Gross and Net Employment Land Demand, Brent 2006 to 2026 ............................................. 144 Dwelling stock: number of dwellings by tenure, 2009 ............................................................ 160 Average house prices by type, 2009 ..................................................................................... 161 Average annual daily traffic flows in Brent, 2008 ................................................................... 166 CO2 tonnes from industrial, domestic property and road transport, 2007 ................................ 174

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction CLES Consulting and Shared Intelligence were commissioned by the London Borough of Brent in summer 2010 to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of Brent’s economy and labour market. This Local Economic Assessment (LEA) is a comprehensive assessment of the borough’s economy. Alongside this LEA, the London Borough of Brent (LB Brent) has prepared a Core Strategy (CS). The LEA and the CS are complementary documents that together will help shape the priorities for Brent’s economic development. A key purpose of the LEA is to set out the challenges and opportunities that need to be addressed to deliver sustainable economic growth.

Economic Context Forecasts suggest continued but slower growth in the UK’s economy...

The short to medium term future of the global economy is likely to be dependent on two factors – the potency of the policy stimulus in prompting recovery, and whether the growth potential of the world’s major economies has been permanently dented by the global financial crisis. This, combined with large levels of public debt, means that the UK economy is likely to see a slow return to growth.

Globalisation and other changes in the global economy are working together to change the economic map of the world...

China is projected to become the second biggest economy globally by 2020, and to overtake the United States to become the largest economy by 2050. India is also projected to grow to become the third largest economy by 2050.

The Eurozone’s recovery is however the most perilous of the world’s recovery areas, due to the concerns around the stability of public finances...

There is plenty of spare capacity and slack amongst the Euro area countries.

The ILO unemployment rate in June 2010 was 10 per cent, meaning that 15.7 million people in the Eurozone are looking for work but cannot find a job. There are still concerns that if the instability in the Eurozone persists, it could tip some of its economies back into recession.

Another drag on recovery will be public finances...

It is clear from the results of the UK Comprehensive Spending Review1 that there will be significant cuts across most government departments and resulting job losses will add to the strain on the labour market. Whilst it is important not to overstate the repercussions of these reforms – some of the negative impact of reduced welfare spending will be off-set by residents being financially incentivised to move into work or to take on additional work – they are still likely to have a deep impact on many of Brent’s residents, particularly the long-term unemployed and low-paid.

Despite challenging conditions London remains the key driver of the UKs economy...

London’s economy contributes around £230 billion to total UK GVA, an estimated 20 per cent of total national output and has created more than 380,000 net new jobs (a 5.3% increase) in the last decade. Forecasts suggest that London will see modest but sustained recovery in the next 5 years, with longer-term growth (beyond 2015) seen in professional and business services sector. With its international outlook as a world city, London is well positioned to take advantage of the positive trends developing amongst the major emerging market economies.

Agglomeration economies remain a powerful factor supporting growth in London, especially in the Central Activity Zone (CAZ)...

Around one-third of London’s jobs are located in Central London, the largest and most productive centre of employment in Britain. The benefits of agglomeration tend to discourage employment from being spread across London; and so despite technological advances allowing for remote working, it is likely that more commercial office property and transport capacity on radial services will be needed, both within and from, the CAZ.

The future of Brent’s economy needs to be considered in terms of its location and functional role within the wider London economy...

London’s economic geography in large part determines the level and type of employment located across the 32 boroughs. Brent is not part of the London central activity zone, and the benefits of agglomeration tend to discourage employment from being evenly spread across London. Current and future development in Brent must therefore be considered in terms of relative locational

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HM-Treasury (2010): http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/spend_index.h CLES Consulting

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advantages inherent in any particular employment site (across Outer London and other UK locations), as well as the wider economic climate.

Brent contains some regionally significant assets…

Brent does contain some unique assets and performs a number of functions within the capital. It is a strategic location for a major visitor attraction in the form of the national stadium at Wembley, and contains part of the largest manufacturing area in London.

Future development in Brent will be affected by housing and retail developments in the surrounding West London area (and beyond)...

There are major retail developments at White City and Brent Cross, and the potential for major housing growth on its boundary with Barnet; and continuing commercial and residential developments in the central activity zone and into East London.

One Borough Brent has experienced significant levels of migration…

Brent has experienced significant levels of inward migration, the deprived neighbourhoods in the south of the borough experience significant levels of churn and population transience. High rates of NiNo registrations show that the borough is a destination for people arriving in the UK who may choose to locate first in Brent because of a combination of cultural associations or availability of comparatively cheap accommodation, it is not known what proportion settle in the borough.

Brent’s ethnic diversity presents both challenges and opportunities for the borough…

Brent is one of the most diverse boroughs in the country, with large Indian, Pakistani, and Black (Caribbean and African) communities, with the borough being home to many refugees, asylum seekers, and economic migrants. On one hand this can provide opportunities to develop diverse local products and services - adding to the appeal of Brent as a centre for different cultural attractions - on the other it can present challenges around inclusion and access to services.

Brent’s employment rate is close to the London average but obscures signification variation between male and female and within ethnic groups…

Employment rate is close to the London average. However, as with many London boroughs female employment rates are low, and there is also significant variation between ethnic groups in Brent.

Worklessness is concentrated in the south of Brent and amongst particular groups…

Worklessness is concentrated in certain geographical locations in the borough, and this corresponds with other measures of deprivation. The relative position of the borough in terms of employment deprivation is worsening. Health inequality is high in the borough, and the rate of people claiming incapacity benefit for mental illness is significantly worse than the national average. There are particular barriers to employment for particular groups of workless individuals including ethnic minorities, those with health and mental health needs, and women.

Levels of child poverty are high…

The cost of childcare is a significant barrier to employment and impacts on levels parental unemployment. A fifth of dependent children were living in one parent families in Brent, and more than a third of the borough’s children live in poverty. Brent ranks within the top 10 per cent most deprived in England in the Child Well-being Index, and almost a third of children live in households that are claiming workless benefits, much higher than the average for both London and the UK. National evidence suggests that the key factors for areas improving (in terms of reducing deprivation) are the creation of higher level skills in the resident population; and ensuring access to entry level jobs.

Resident and workplace earnings are low suggesting a lower skilled labour force and a lower value business base…

Average weekly workplace earnings in Brent are almost identical to that of residents earnings, which suggests that the district is not a net importer of higher remunerated occupations, rather that those commuting are commuting out of the borough to similarly low paid occupations. Workplace earnings in Brent are lower than the West London and London averages, suggesting a lower value business base predominating in the area.

Despite growth in professional and managerial roles a significant proportion of Brent’s residents remain employed in low skilled occupations…

The proportion of residents who are managers and senior officials or in professional occupations accounts for over two fifths of Brent’s population, below the London average. Almost a third of CLES Consulting

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residents are employed in low skilled occupations against a London average of around a fifth. This is further reflected in the low skills base of local residents. Despite an increase of nearly 20,000 graduates in Brent since 2004 the borough still has a lower proportion of residents qualified to NVQ Level 4, compared with the London average.

While there have been significant improvements in young people’s educational attainment too many residents still have no qualifications…

Whilst there have been significant improvements in educational attainment of young people in the last five years, the existence of high proportions of the workforce with no qualifications remains a persistent major challenge to raising productivity and economic inclusion within Brent. Nearly one-inten of Brent’s residents have no formal qualifications, equivalent to over 18,000 residents.

Disparities in educational performance reflect and reinforce the geography of social segregation.

Competitive Business Growth in the business base has been driven by micro-enterprise…

Brent has an estimated total of 12,000 enterprises; accounting for almost a fifth of workplaces in West London and nearly one-in-twenty workplaces in London. Nine-out-of-ten are micro enterprises (with less than 10 employees); higher than the average for West London, London and nationally.

The number of people working in dynamic micro-sized businesses grew faster in Brent (5.1%) than the London average (4.8%) over the last five years.

There is evidence of an entrepreneurial culture with high levels of self employment…

The level of self-employment in Brent is above the London and national average. Comparison with national benchmarks suggests there is a healthy enterprise culture in Brent, with national indices ranking the borough 52nd in Britain.

But growth in the business stock has lagged behind the London average and business survival rates are low…

The borough records below-average growth in VAT-registered stock, and whilst business survival has improved significantly within Brent during the last decade, longer-term (4 years+) survival rates still lag behind regional and national averages.

Brent has experienced job losses, which occurred during the period of sustained economic growth in London and the UK… There are over 93,000 employees in the (and an additional 10,000 self-employed). However the total number of employees has fallen within Brent during the last decade, driven by recent job losses in wholesale and retail, and the continued contraction of manufacturing employment; and the borough has lost a number of large firms. The number of employers with over 200 employees has fallen by -6.6 per cent between 2003 and 2008, compared to the average for West London (0.2%), London (2.4%) and nationally (4.4%).

Many employers struggle to recruit suitably skilled labour…

The National Employers Skills Survey 2009 suggests that a lower proportion (16.5%) of employers in Brent reported skills gaps within their existing workforce, compared with an average of 18.2 per cent in West London, 17.2 per cent in London and national average of 19.0 per cent. However employers in Brent found it significantly harder to recruit from the local labour market. Over a third (34.4%) of employers reported skill shortages, higher than the average for London (24.4%) and the national average (21.1%).

Local skill levels and the level of workforce training is low in the borough…..

Future employer engagement in training remains critical for the Brent’s workforce, as the proportion of the labour market receiving training up to Level 3 or below (17.6%) was is lower than the London and UK averages (21.2%).

Businesses and local employment are concentrated in a number of sectors...

The largest private sector employment in Brent is in wholesale and retail (21,800 employees) accounting for almost a fifth (19.3%) of employment. This is followed by business services (16,800), manufacturing (10,600), in particular the manufacturing of food and drink (5,000), transport and communications (10,600), and the construction sector (9,500). The borough also provides a significant number of jobs in the public sector2; including public administration (5,000), education (6,500), and health (13,700).

2

These figures excludes public services that are included under the heading ‘other personal services’ CLES Consulting

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Forecasts suggest some jobs growth within the next ten years…

The forecasts used in this LEA suggest that there will be a net increase of 5,000 jobs over the next decade within the borough. Whilst these forecasts are net of reductions in public sector employment, (the full impact of spending cuts are yet to play out), there may be the potential for overall employment growth in a number of industry sectors over the coming years, based on the regeneration opportunities within the borough.

But competition for inward investment will be intense….

The borough, along with other parts of West, South and North London will need to compete with pressure for investment in East London and the Thames Gateway.

Potential growth sectors (jobs and/or GVA) may be business services, construction, creative/new media, food and drink manufacturing and healthcare…

All these sectors are forecast to have growth potential, although growth in each of these will be affected by the availability of suitable accommodation, and sector specific issues.

Hospitality and tourism set to grow, based on key developments in the borough...

Brent receives an estimated 2.75 million visitors, the majority of these are day visitors, and an estimated 296,000 overnight visitors. Brent also has opportunity to capitalise on other tourist attractions including a range of cultural festivals and leisure facilities linked to regeneration at Wembley. Baseline forecasts suggest a net in year increase of 400 jobs and £24m GVA by 2020.

Transport and communications is essential to supporting both local enterprise in Brent and supporting future economic and labour market growth across London...

The sector is a major employer within Brent, accounting for 10,600 employees and £496m GVA. Future opportunities are linked to investment in local infrastructure – including transport access at Park Royal, as well as potential to capitalise on link to other key transport projects in London such as Crossrail. Baseline forecasts suggest that the transport sector could deliver a net in year increase of 1,000 jobs by 2020, and an increase of £170m GVA per annum.

Despite growing competition from shopping centres outside the borough, Brent’s retail economy remains important to the continued vitality of local neighbourhoods...

Whilst levels of employment in the retail sector have fallen within Brent over the last five years, proposed developments in Brent and longer-term growth forecasts suggest that the sector deliver a net increase of 600 jobs by 2020, and an increase of £162m GVA per annum.

Quality of Life: Housing, Transport and Environment Brent has experienced significant growth in its population and housing requirement over the last decade putting significant pressure upon the housing market...

Rising demand, combined with the loss of larger accommodation converted into flats for the private rented sector and new build which is predominantly 1 or 2 bed accommodation, has resulted in a critical housing shortage which is reflected in rising accommodation prices in the borough.

Rising accommodation costs has meant that buying their own home is beyond the means of many of the borough’s residents...

With average salaries in Brent 30% below the London average. The lowest priced housing in the borough is around ten times corresponding earnings levels; higher than the average for both London (eight times) and nationally (six times).

As house prices have climbed in Brent and London, private sector rents have followed...

Average weekly rents in the private sector remain relatively high compared with average earnings across the whole of the West London area. When housing benefit reforms come into force in 2012, impacts will hit London hardest of any region. Households will face weekly losses of £20 or more, far more than the total in the rest of England.

Brent benefits from a well developed transport network, which includes the Underground, National Rail services, and an extensive bus network...

A significant amount of investment has been made in transport infrastructure across London and within Brent. For example the rebuilding of Wembley Park station - a flagship project funded by the public sector - increased the capacity of the station by 70 per cent ahead of the opening of the new Wembley Stadium in 2007.

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Public transport infrastructure provides high levels of access for most of the borough...

For most of Brent’s residents it is possible to find high frequency public transport services operating generally less than 500m from their homes. Whilst there are strong radial connections from west London to central London, these are often crowded or congested. Enhancing east-west capacity and managing congestion is clearly an urgent need.

However immediate challenges include congestion and access to employment sites...

Average road journey times are comparatively high in Brent when compared to the London average (just over 3 minutes per 1 mile in 2009). Heavy road transport and congestion are continuing to put pressure upon parts of the borough, in particular freight movements in and out of Park Royal. Peak morning and afternoon vehicle delays have increased between 2008 and 2009 more than the majority of other London boroughs.

Other longer-term opportunities include developing accessibility and links to Crossrail and High Speed rail development...

Transport investments will continue to change the relative accessibility of one place in London against another. Significant transport programmes across London include: upgrades to the London Underground; Crossrail; the Thameslink Upgrade; and an extension of the East London Line. While this will reinforce the competitive advantage of Central London, it will also improve accessibility and provide economic opportunities across West London.

Upgrading housing stock across Brent will have a key role in helping to reduce the borough’s carbon footprint...

The carbon footprint in Brent is lower than the London average and fell between 2005 and 2007.

The London Plan seeks to encourage a 20 per cent reduction in carbon emissions through the sustainable use of energy including using less energy, supplying energy efficiently, and incorporating renewable energy within new developments. Household energy consumption is responsible for a lion’s share (30 to 40%) of London’s carbon footprint and remains a key focus for both investment (in retro-fitting older housing stock) and job creation in the construction sector and its supply chain.

The quality of the local environment and promoting sustainability are central to the borough’s vision for the future...

Brent has more than 1,000 acres of public open space, including Fryent Country Park and the Welsh Harp reservoir, as well as formal Victorian parks such as Gladstone Park and Roundwood Park, plus the newly-built Northwick Park golf course. However, continuing to address environmental improvements across the borough will have a significant impact on resident’s quality of life, in particular those living adjacent to the North Circular Road.

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ECONOMIC CONTEXT

1.1

Local Economic Assessments

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As of the 1st April 2010, all upper tier local authorities were required by statute to prepare a Local Economic Assessment (LEA)3. This duty is part of a policy to grant local authorities greater power and influence over supporting economic growth in their area.

The purpose of LEAs is to:

provide a sound understanding of the economic conditions in the area and how they affect the well-being of residents and businesses;

identify the economic linkages between the area assessed and the wider economy;

identify the comparative strengths and weaknesses of the local economy and the nature and form of local economic challenges and opportunities;

identify the constraints to local economic growth and employment and the risks to delivering sustainable economic growth.

CLES Consulting and Shared Intelligence were commissioned by the London Borough of Brent in summer 2010 to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of Brent’s economy and labour market. This Local Economic Assessment (LEA) is a comprehensive assessment of the borough’s economy. Alongside this LEA, the London Borough of Brent (LB Brent) has prepared a Core Strategy (CS). The LEA and the CS are complementary documents that together will help shape the priorities for Brent’s economic development. A key purpose of the LEA is to set out the challenges and opportunities that need to be addressed to deliver sustainable economic growth.

This LEA reflects the key messages of a number of LB Brent studies and strategies including for example the Sustainable Communities Strategy and Local Development Framework. It is also anticipated that the LEA will be used to inform further revisions of these and other future strategic documents including a Worklessness and Skills Strategy and a Child Poverty Strategy for Brent.

Where possible, this LEA also incorporates the key priorities and messages of sub-regional and regional strategies, including the London Plan and the Economic Development Strategy recently published by the London Mayor.

Local Councils have long had a role in supporting their local economies, largely through providing information and advice to small businesses, and more recently working with disadvantaged groups to reduce worklessness. However, recent government policy has increased expectations on Councils and their partners to have a more significant impact on “place”, and a clearer vision of how they can work together to improve society, the economy and the environment.

The financial, institutional and policy framework for local economic development are undergoing profound changes. The announcements contained within the recent Spending Review, which confirmed that local Government funding would fall by 26% over the next four years will have a profound impact on their resources for economic development interventions, particularly given their non-statutory nature.

In this context it becomes critically important for councils to both understand and shape the development of local economies, and to influence the provision of other public services in a way that helps to meet the needs of their residents. This document is intended to provide the foundations for a good understanding of the local economy by the Council and its partners and for effective future interventions.

3

This duty was outlined in Part 4 of the Local Democracy, Economic Development and Construction Act 2009 CLES Consulting

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The Brent economy in context It is important to understand the economic context within which Brent businesses are operating, in order to identify ways in which to support them. There is an emphasis in government policy on making assessments of functional economic areas. These are areas that can be described as reasonably self-contained in relation to, for example, commuting or housing markets. In many parts of the country these functional economic areas operate at a sub-regional level.

In London, however, it is necessary to understand the role of a London borough in relation to London as a whole. While there may be some helpful understanding that can be gained from looking at economic issues at a West London level, we would argue (and this is supported by an analysis of commuting patterns of Brent residents for example), that the Brent economy needs to be considered in relation to its role within the wider London economy. The future prospects for businesses in Brent depend at least in part on the form and patterns of growth across London. This applies in particular to the potential for growth in offices in Wembley, and major retail growth across the borough.

There are some particular features of the Brent economy that are unique within London, but which require consideration within the London context. Firstly Brent is home to the national stadium at Wembley, and is therefore a national and international visitor destination. The area around the stadium is a major regeneration and development area. Secondly the Park Royal industrial estate, part of which falls within Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s boundary, is one of the largest manufacturing estates in Europe, and its location so centrally within London makes it unique in London. As such, its effective functioning is of strategic regional significance. Thirdly, while Brent is not classified as an Inner London borough, some of its neighbourhoods suffer from levels of poverty and worklessness more often associated with parts of inner London, along with high levels of migration and ethnic diversity.

There are a wide range of factors likely to be driving change in the Brent economy over the coming years. These include technological change, environmental â&#x20AC;&#x201C; climate change, and changes in society including attitudinal and lifestyle changes. There are a number of factors that will have a significant and perhaps more immediate bearing on Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy, and these are:

Future economic growth at a global, regional and local level;

the spatial distribution of growth within London, including the extent to which Brent can exploit its comparative advantages and key attractions, in relation for example to Wembley, and Park Royal industrial estate;

demographic change such as migration and changes in the working age population;

the impact of government spending cuts on employment and service provision; and,

the impact of government policies, particularly welfare reform, the introduction of the Work Programme and reassessment of incapacity benefit claimants, and skills and education policies.

We will consider these issues within the course of the LEA. We introduce the document with an analysis of the current global economic circumstances, and an overview of the London economy, before considering the role of Brent within the London economy.

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The international and national context The development of Brent’s economy will be driven in part by factors including the relative attraction of the borough as a business location, but also by the wider London and global economic context.

The short to medium term future of the global economy is likely to be dependent on two factors – the potency of the policy stimulus in prompting recovery, and whether the growth potential of the world’s major economies has been permanently dented by the global financial crisis. This, combined with large levels of public debt, means that we are likely to see slow return to growth rather than a quick return across the globe. Investment has been severely curtailed and will likely dent productivity for a number of years, and the sharp increases in public debt will increase the competition to access the pool of global savings, with the knock on effect being to raise long-term interest rates, potentially crowding out private investment.

On the longer term horizon, the demographic trends point to a slower rate of natural increase in the labour force, reducing the pool of workers available to meet business demand. The reasons outlined above suggest that global rates of economic growth are likely to be slower in future. Trend growth in the US and UK, for example, is more likely to be closer to 2 per cent, rather than the average of 3 per cent before the global financial crisis struck; the US for example, is forecast by the IMF to grow by 3.1 per cent in 2010 and 2.6 per cent in 2011.4 Although the worst of the economic slowdown is over, most economists note that the road to recovery will take the better part of the next five years. The IMF has recently observed that global recovery has so far been better than expected although growth across the world has been uneven; with lower rates within the advanced economies most affected by the financial crisis, and more solid growth in the emerging and developing economies. The money markets appear to have stabilized although access to credit remains difficult across some sectors. Within the advanced economies, the ‘credit crunch’ now has bottomed out as the tightening of bank lending standards is ending. Despite this, it is important to note that financial conditions remain more difficult than before the crisis.

It is the emerging market economies which have fared the better over the past few years as advanced economies have slumped. For instance, China’s economy grew by 9 per cent in 2009 despite the global recession; this is the fastest annual growth rate since 2007. In the first quarter of 2010 the economy had grown by 12 per cent compared with the same period the year before.

India’s economy grew by 6 per cent in quarter 4 of 2009, and the Russian economy is forecast by the IMF to grow at 4 per cent in 2010.

It is clear that globalisation and other changes in the global economy are working together to change the economic map of the world. In particular, China is projected to become the second biggest economy globally by 2020, and to overtake the United States to become the largest economy by 2050, shown in Figure 1:. India is also projected to grow to become the third largest economy by 2050; over the same timescale Russia and Brazil are likely to have economies about the same size as that of Japan.

As these countries grow and become more prosperous, they will increase in importance as markets for goods and services from the UK and other more developed countries. Chinese and Indian consumers will buy more insurance as their incomes increase, and their enterprises will need the professional, legal, accountancy and advertising services in which London has a leading role. These are all areas, however where there is intense and increasing global competition. London will have to ensure it remains a competitive economic environment, with the investment it needs in its infrastructure, people and enterprises. The marketing and promotion of what London and its towns and places have to offer will also be of increasing importance.

4

Source: IMF 2010 CLES Consulting

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Figure 1: Forecast size of international economies , US=100 in 20505

1.4

The ‘Eurozone’ economies The Eurozone economy has now begun to stabilize over the second half of 2009 and into 2010 – output increased by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2010. The forecasts from the European Commission suggest that the Eurozone will grow by 0.9 per cent in 2010 and 1.5 per cent in 2011 (note the comparison with overall global growth and that of the US and emerging economies). The Eurozone’s recovery is however the most perilous of the world’s recovery areas, due to the concerns around the stability of public finances, highlighted by the crisis in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland are also considered as being particularly vulnerable.

Despite the concerted action being undertaken by EU members to forestall further sovereign debt crises, there are still concerns that if the instability in the Eurozone persists it could tip some of its economies back into recession. These sovereign debt problems have been created due to the transfer of banking debts during the economic crisis to government. Rather than solving the problems, this has simply transferred the responsibility. The package put in place by the EU members should give most Eurozone countries the time they need for fiscal consolidation. However these countries must make sure that this takes place, or the sovereign debt crisis may spread across much of Europe.

As a whole, Europe is concerned with deflation in the economy as demand continues to be subdued meaning the potential for future falls in commodity prices. Inflation, at 1.7 per cent (its highest level since November 2008) is still below the target level of 2 per cent, meaning that low interest rates are set to remain in place. There is plenty of spare capacity and slack amongst the Euro area countries. The ILO unemployment rate in June 2010 was estimated at 10 per cent, meaning that 15.7 million people are looking for work but cannot find a job.

This analysis suggests that while the global financial position may have stabilised over recent months, and some of the emerging economies have continued to maintain high growth rates, there is unlikely to be an immediate resumption of high growth in the UK economy in the foreseeable future. As we will discuss in the next section, that will impact on likely employment growth in the UK and London, and therefore Brent.

5

Source: Oxford Economics CLES Consulting

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1.5

The UK’s current economic performance

1.5.1

Current performance and outlook It is likely that trend growth in the UK will be lower over the next economic cycle, closer to a rate of 2 per cent per annum compared to the 3 per cent experienced over the last decade or so. There is a consensus that the worst of the economic slowdown is over, with the country out of recession as defined by the ONS6, and encouraging recent growth in output – 1.1 per cent in the second quarter of 2010 and 0.8 per cent in the third, exceeding that expected by economic analysts.7 What is clear however is that the road to recovery will not be straight-forward. The UK has suffered a deeper recession than many other countries, and a key risk is that this loss in output may never be recovered, with other potential risks linked to inflationary pressures, for example from rising energy prices.

The Bank of England has aggressively cut its interest rates to 0.5 per cent and purchased 15 per cent of UK government bonds in trying to kick-start economic activity; however there are signs of stabilisation in the manufacturing and service sectors as the economy begins to recover. Rates may be held for some time yet at 0.5 per cent despite inflationary concerns. This is due to the ongoing concerns around the fragile strength of the economic recovery. UK firms still have plenty of capacity and high rates of unemployment are dampening consumption from consumers. Additionally the sluggish global growth (particularly in the Euro area, important for UK exports) may yet threaten the UK’s recovery.

The lack of growth in the current UK export markets means that imbalances in the domestic economy remain in place, meaning a continued reliance on consumption, rather than exports, to maintain growth. Until this fundamental imbalance is addressed, the UK may not be able to fully recover from the recession.

A key factor in the continued recovery will be activity in the financial markets where tensions are beginning to ease, with the spread between the bank’s rate and the rate at which banks lend to each other (LIBOR) narrowing. The Bank of England’s purchase of government bonds has helped keep the long-term interest rates down, helping cap the cost of mortgages and longer term business borrowing. This easing of financial conditions has helped stimulate economic activity.

The large contractions in economic output in late 2008 and early 2009 highlighted the severity of the issues facing the economy; however indicators from a range of business surveys in the latter part of 2010 have suggested that output has continued to grow – out of recession. While encouraging, this data should be viewed with caution – there is no real indication of sustained improvements in demand to date in the economy, which is needed for a lasting recovery.

Another drag on recovery will be public finances. It is clear from the results of the Comprehensive Spending Review that there will be significant cuts across most government departments and resulting job losses will add to the strain on the labour market. Major credit rating agencies have warned of the need for public sector finances to return to a more sustainable trajectory - otherwise the UK could lose its AAA credit rating, resulting in higher costs of government borrowing and implications for economic growth.

Finally, there is evidence that the recent recovery in the UK’s housing market (over the course of the first half of 2010) is running out of steam. In summer 2010 the Nationwide Index reported that prices fell by 0.5%, taking the annual rate of house price inflation down from 8.7 per cent to 6.6 per cent driven by weaker buyer demand. Most recently in October 2010, prices fell by 0.7 per cent, accelerating the three month rate of decline to 1.5 per cent.8

6 7 8

That is, two consecutive quarters of negative growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ONS, October 2010 http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192 Nationwide House Price Index: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/ CLES Consulting

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Future growth Official forecasts for the UK, shown in Table 1:, indicate that growth will pick up in 2010/11 (although considering the stronger than expected quarter 2 and quarter results this may be higher), and will grow up to 2.7 per cent by 2015. These forecasts expect that the levels of investment from the public sector will decrease markedly, with investment beyond 2010 expected to be overwhelmingly private sector led. This is due to the assumptions regarding recovery by the service sector (particularly though business services in the long-term), stronger export performance as the economy rebalances, and advanced manufacturing activity delivering further output growth (e.g. knowledge sectors such as life science industries, pharmaceuticals, advanced material sciences, and advanced engineering leading growth prospects).

In the short-term, financial market conditions are likely to continue to affect UK demand and inflation, through the price and availability of credit, asset prices and increased global uncertainty.

Stricter lending criteria will put further pressure on household consumption, as well as acting negatively on business investment. The impact upon consumer spending will be particularly important and is likely to be a key downward pressure upon the economy, due to consumers facing tax rises, wage freezes and redundancies in the public sector.

Table 1: Summary of economic prospects, UK, 2010 to 2015 9 Indicator

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

GDP

1.2

2.3

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.7

Consumer Spending

0.2

1.3

1.7

2.1

2.2

2.2

Investment

-0.5

3.9

7.9

8.8

8.0

6.9

These financial conditions will impact on the London and Brent economy. Employment growth will be led by the speed of recovery in the private sector, and the extent and speed at which this can offset public sector employment contraction will be a key question for the Council in the coming years.

9

Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, June 2010 CLES Consulting

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London: Economic context London is a key driver of the UK economy, a magnet for the best and brightest talent from around the world. London’s economy is built on 401,000 workplaces, employing over 4.1m people. It contributes around £230 billion to total UK GVA, an estimated 20 per cent of total national output. It generates one fifth of the UK’s total tax revenues, and has created more than 380,000 net new jobs (a 5.3% increase) over the last decade, outstripping the UK average (2.7%). This growth was concentrated in business services. The creative, hotels and restaurant sectors also grew strongly.

London has a population of over 7.6 million, and almost 67 per cent are of working age. An estimated 69 per cent of the working age resident population are in the workforce, being either in employment or self employed. Claimant count unemployment in London stands at 4.3 per cent of the working age population and is currently higher than the national average of 3.9 per cent.

Although Claimant Count rates in both regional and national terms have increased markedly over 2008 and 2009 in particular (and despite recent falls the London rate is currently at its highest level since September 1999), unemployment is still historically low compared to the early to mid 1990’s.

The pace of growth of London’s economic output at the beginning of the decade has resulted in increasing its growth rate compared to the rest of the UK, increasing by an average of 3.4 per cent per annum between 1998 and 2008 (UK=+2.7%). The level of labour productivity, expressed as GVA per employment (£51,000) compares favourably with the UK average of £37,000. Differences in London’s productivity compared to the rest of the country is strongly influenced by the high levels of high-end Financial and Business Services, most particularly within the City of London.

In order to have such a dense agglomeration of knowledge intensive businesses, London requires a consistent supply of highly skilled labour. The proportion of residents with Level 4 qualifications is high (39.7% of the population), and the London core attracts highly skilled talent from the homecounties and beyond. This ensures that the needs of London’s strong knowledge economy are served and productivity remains high. London is an international labour market and draws both highly skilled and low skilled labour from around the world.

Recent data from a number of London business investment surveys10, shows that over half of London organisations are optimistic about their future prospects, an improvement on the previous quarter. Nearly a third of businesses in the region are planning to expand, however with this comes capacity and infrastructure pressures. However the cost of doing business in London, and the quality and reliability of the transport network, remain important issues affecting future performance.

The latest economic reports indicate that London’s economic position is better than expected.

Headline findings from recent (October 2010) reports on London include11:

Annual output growth improving in London, the South East and the Eastern region; annual employment growth negative in London, the South East and the Eastern region; annual house price inflation falling and surveyors reporting that house prices are falling; business activity and new orders rising, and a slight increase in employment in September; small increase in year-on-year airport passenger numbers.

The outlook for London’s economy appears to remain one of modest recovery, albeit one which may take several twists before settling again onto a regular pattern of robust growth. However with its international outlook as a world city, London is well positioned to take advantage of the positive trends emerging amongst the major emerging market economies.

Brent is located within a global city with prospects for a modest recovery. Where and how this recovery is likely to be represented within London will be important to try and understand in order to ensure that Brent is able to maximise the benefits for both its businesses and its residents.

10 11

Source: The CBI/KPMG London Business Survey 2010; Ernst & Young's European Attractiveness Survey 2009 Source: GLA Economics - London’s Economy Today, October 2010 CLES Consulting

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London: Economic future Over the last few decades London has seen strong growth in business services employment more than compensating for the loss of manufacturing jobs over the past two decades - in part driven by the value created by London’s financial services which has supported growth in a number of other sectors across the supply chain, notably the following12:

Professional Services: Sales are estimated at £14.3bn to London businesses (47 per cent of total sales – other sales include sales to businesses outside London and sales to consumers and sales to the public sector). 37 per cent of London business to business sales are to the financial services sector.

Creative Industries: Sales to London businesses are estimated at around £12.5 billion, or 36 per cent of total sales. 36 per cent of the London business to business sales are to the financial services sector.

ICT: London business to business sales of £7.4bn. 50 per cent of the London business to business sales are to the financial services sector.

Whilst financial services face a period of re-adjustment much of its activity will continue in the longer term. The UK is a world leader in a number of financial sectors, including: cross-border banking, foreign exchange, over the counter derivatives and marine insurance. The UK has either maintained or grown its world share over the past 10 to 15 years13. Between 2001 and 2008, the value of each of these financial markets in the UK have increased significantly – fund management and crossborder banking were by far the highest value activities in the UK (£7.0 trillion and £5.6 trillion respectively in 2008).

Looking more broadly across London’s other sectors, in the short-term, many are emerging from a cyclical downturn which has and will continue to lead to job losses, including: financial services, professional business services, real estate and consumer industries; and the impacts of public spending cuts affecting public administration (and to a much lesser extend health and education).

Whilst the UK’s economy has returned to growth, it is far from clear whether the recovery within London will be quick, gradual or even short lived (i.e. the risk of a double-dip recession).

However over the medium-term global corporate activity will bottom out and a recovery in activity will follow which will offer opportunity for growth in the financial services sector and related business services from accountants, lawyers, management consultants, IT firms etc. Real estate prices in both the residential and commercial property markets will bottom out and activity levels will increase; and consumer industries – once debt levels are reduced - employment levels will bottom out, banks credit difficulties end, and then consumer spending will regain its upward trajectory.

Most economic forecast houses14 believe this to be around 2012/13.

In the longer-term financial regulation is likely to become tighter and London faces increased competition from other aspiring financial centres around the globe. A number of other cities are already vying to compete with London for some of its financial sector trade. Zurich is vying to compete with London for significant chunks of its financial markets – including hedge funds and wholesale banking. Cities such as Singapore, Dubai, Moscow, Mumbai and Shanghai have been identified as ‘emerging threats’ to London.

It is difficult to gauge the level of threat these cities pose. Zurich, for example, offers favourable tax arrangements, a highly skilled workforce, comparatively better wages and quality of life. However, it does not have the depth and complexity of market or level of supporting business services currently available in London. Either way economic growth is not a ‘zero-sum game’ – so London need not necessarily be damaged by the growth of other global centres.

We will examine in this LEA, the extent to which key growth sectors are represented within the local economy in Brent, and the extent to which they might be seen as potential growth sectors in the future. However, the spatial organisation of London’s industries will also help to determine the location within London for future growth, and we explore this in the following section.

12 13 14

Source: Experian (2008) Source: IFSL (2008) Source: Oxford Economics, Cambridge Econometrics, Experian Business Strategies (2010) CLES Consulting

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London: Spatial development London’s economic geography is the product of more than a century of trade and urbanisation – it is a prime example of an agglomeration at work. Around one-third of London’s jobs are located in Central London, the largest and most productive centre of employment in Britain. As shown in Figure 2: employment density is greatest in Central London and relatively high in other parts of Inner London. A number of large employment centres are located in Outer London, including town centres that were historically distinct towns in their own right, such as Uxbridge, Kingston, Croydon and Bromley.

Figure 2: Employment density – employees per square kilometre - London, 200815

London’s growth over history has been remarkable. Though originally part of a network of small towns, including many in the Thames Valley, London has grown to consume a large number of neighbours, some of which are now known as Metropolitan Town Centres. Much of the reason for this is the combination of agglomeration benefits, which causes businesses to want to locate in London (through a process of benefitting from sharing, matching and learning - between businesses, and between businesses and their sources of labour, and sharing critical assets and infrastructure), and declining transport costs, which allow people to travel further.

Despite the geographic spread of London, Central London remains a prime location for businesses.

It lies at the centre of the most populous region in Britain and more than 3 million people can travel by public transport from home to Central London within 45 minutes. Accessibility to people and businesses (input and output markets) drops off very rapidly as one moves from the centre and so Central London provides many more advantages to businesses, and this remains a fundamental driving force in the spatial development of economic activity across London.

As a result, there is very high competition for space in Central London, by both businesses seeking shops and offices and people seeking housing. But businesses can very often pay more for land than people seeking land for housing. This is because employment land generates output and the area in which agglomeration benefits are highest is very narrow, as detailed above. And so the highest value businesses outbid others for land in Central London.

15

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 CLES Consulting

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As in most cities, land prices are highest in the centre and generally decline with distance from the centre, reflecting the appeal of central locations when compared to peripheral ones. Tough competition for limited space drives up land values and this acts, along with congestion and other diseconomies of spatial concentration and planning controls, as a check on further concentration.

London’s specialised, globally competitive activities tend to locate in Central London; and in fact some locate almost exclusively in Central London because they benefit so greatly from agglomeration economies. These include the financial and business services sectors.

Within business services, there are notable concentrations in accountancy, legal, management consulting and advertising in Central London as well as the more creative radio and television, publishing and motion pictures industries. Less productive firms cannot compete for space in Central London, given its cost. Where agglomeration benefits do not amount to enough to compensate for higher rents, for instance in activities that require relatively large amounts of land, firms locate elsewhere, often in Outer London or the towns and cities in the surrounding region. This is evident in the relative productivity of employees in different areas.

Businesses in Outer London tend to buy goods and services from the rest of the country and overseas, but sell more products within London or the Greater South East. This demonstrates the geographical linkages between businesses and the supporting role these businesses play to others in London, serving as a staging point in the movement of goods and services. This also illustrates that less productive businesses tend to locate outside Central London, but remain as close to their customers as practicable. The types of business that might provide a more supportive role to other businesses include those involved in catering, cleaning, logistics and security; illustrated in Figure 3: Figure 3: Employment in Outer London, Inner London and GB by broad sector, 2008

16

Economic activity outside Central London tends, on average, to be more widely spread and more supportive of an area’s immediate population than in Inner London. To this end, the proportion of jobs associated with serving the population (like retail or health and education, for example) and jobs in what might be referred to as ‘support business services’ are higher in Outer London than in Inner London.

The location of employment opportunities across London, as well as the transport system that provides access to such employment opportunities, plays an active role in shaping the physical growth of the region. Central London is the largest employment centre and an important destination for London’s transport network. The benefits of agglomeration tend to discourage employment from being spread across London and so despite technological advances allowing for remote working, it is likely that more capacity on radial services from outer London will be needed in the future.

16

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 CLES Consulting

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Commuting accounts for just under one-in-five trips by London residents, who make around threequarters of the 24 million daily trips in London. Most other trips are associated with engaging with local businesses, either for leisure, education or for shopping. These trips are normally local and are derived from the location of local service activities which, as described above, tend to locate near residential areas. Commuting patterns result in a very fluid workforce across London’s boroughs.

Around two-thirds of all London residents’ trips between Central London and Outer London (which account for only 4% of all London residents’ trips) are for commuting or other work purposes; and results in many Outer London boroughs having higher employment rates than Inner London boroughs (shown in Figure 4:) despite relatively weak employment growth in Outer London as compared to Inner London (shown in Figure 5:).

Figure 4: Employment rates across London Boroughs

17

Figure 5: Employment levels across London Boroughs, 1989, 2001, 2007

17 18

Source: GLA (200): Evidence base for The London Plan and Economic Development Plan, using ONS data Ibid CLES Consulting

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Central London therefore sees a concentration of globally competitive specialisations, with only a few concentrations of specialised service activity elsewhere in London. Economic theory and forecasts for London provide further supporting evidence that these powerful agglomeration forces of economic growth will continue to concentrate in specific locations; as illustrated in Figure 6:.

Central London will continue to dominate London’s office market and areas outside Central London will need to compete with other parts of London, as well as the rest of the country.

Figure 6: Location of economic activity and employee jobs across London

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Whilst London’s long-term economic performance will require significant development to accommodate growth, there are now a relatively large number of large development schemes, across the capital at various stages of development – from inception through to part-delivered. This has an important bearing on spatial development across wider parts of London and Brent’s future ambitions to deliver local regeneration and economic development within the borough – creating local jobs and raising income. There are a number of key issues in relation to future potential development in Brent:

the shift in development and likely future growth towards East London; the scale of the east London and other large schemes combined in relation to total demand; the competitive position of Brent in relation to other locations in the capital and elsewhere.

Implicit in the previous point is the proposition (and competition) for further commercial development outside key CAZ areas in terms of: locations both across Outer London; between other locations in the wider South East; and with other UK cities that have significant capacity for development allied to lower cost locations and access to significant labour markets).

In the absence of intervention, office development will take place where and when it is profitable.

Although there are signs of recovery, the global economic recession has clearly subdued demand for office space throughout London. Recent research has found consistently that the Outer London office market is limited20. In Outer London, residential development tends to be more profitable as higher productivity elements of the office market will tend to locate in Central London.

19 20

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 Mayor of London (2010): London Office Policy Review 2010 CLES Consulting

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Economic viability for office development is a major inhibiting factor in Outer London at any time; even more so in the current economic climate as the UK emerges from recession. Very few locations commanded rental values that rendered development viable, even at the peak of the cycle when investment yields were lower and rental growth was anticipated. Headline rental values across most comparable locations in Outer London fell significantly during the recession. It is unclear what the longer-term effects will be. When office rents in Central London rise towards cycle peaks, occupiers begin to consider alternatives as a way to reduce operating costs. At the peak of the previous cycle in 2007, Central London rents were more than double the values being projected in Outer London and, in parts of the West End, more than triple (mainly in the Hedge Fund sector).

The onset of recession and decline in property markets has not only reduced the asking rents in Central London but, perhaps more importantly, has enabled occupiers with an impending lease break or expiry, who may have been tempted to look for a lower cost alternative, to negotiate very favourable terms to stay in their existing buildings.

Demand pressures on Central London, that may once have fuelled demand in Outer London, have also been relieved by the emergence of large campus-style schemes on the edge of London. These act as pressure valves for the Central London markets, by offering alternatives at significant discounts to rents in the core. In effect, they offer an alternative to businesses that may once have looked to Outer London to provide a lower priced office location with ready access to Central London, and cause fewer disturbances to travel-to-work patterns. Clearly there will continue to be demand for office based activities elsewhere in London outside the CAZ, but a recent review has shown to a lesser extent than anticipated in the original London Plan, and this will inevitably have a bearing on demand for office in outer London and Brent. As the London Office Policy Review21 recommends: “In light of integrated strategic and local office demand studies, boroughs and other stakeholders should develop sensitively phased strategies to manage the release of surplus space, or its selective renewal or redevelopment.”

Other areas of strategic importance to both London and Brent are outlined in the sections below; and key issues are explored further in the Annex accompanying the LEA. 1.8.1

West London West London occupies a critical position in the overall structure of London. It is part of a very strong East/West axis. West London, in common with all other parts of London, will experience long-term growth in population, homes and jobs. West London’s economy remains extremely important to London. As well as Heathrow, the area contains strong financial and business service base, the main source of growth in London as a whole, and distinct clusters of IT, ‘creative’, pharmaceutical, logistics and some manufacturing activities, as well as other businesses providing more local services. The area is expected to experience significant growth in consumer expenditure which could generate demand for 145,000 to 227,000 sq m extra comparison goods floor-space to 2016.

The London Plan identifies that this should be accommodated in town centres. Strategically designated town centres in the sub-region should be considered as opportunities for more intensive development and boroughs should consider how their roles could be consolidated or enhanced to meet retail and other consumer needs and to increase capacity for mixed-use development including housing.

The SRDF/SRIF provides guidance on developing a wider role for Uxbridge as a Metropolitan centre, on better integrating Ealing Broadway/West Ealing and Shepherd’s Bush/White City and regenerating Wembley. Redevelopment associated with Hounslow’s Western International Market should not compromise capacity for expansion of the wholesaling function in the longer term. West London contains a large share of London’s industrial capacity (27%) including sixteen SILs.22 The London Plan suggests that there is a risk that valuable industrial sites may be lost through pressures from competing uses; sites with real long-term potential in industrial use, especially logistics, should be protected. The Plan also identifies that their management need to balance the retention of land for continuing industrial purposes such as provision for waste management in line with the principle of self-sufficiency and taking account of some of central London’s needs and re-designation to other priority uses, e.g. housing. Logistics provision must also be coordinated with other authorities beyond London.

21

Source: GLA (2010): London Office Policy Review 2009 http://www.london.gov.uk/who-runs-london/mayor/publications/planning/london-office-policy-review-2009 {accessed December 2010} 22 The Strategic Industrial Locations framework is intended to reconcile the demand for, and supply of, productive industrial land in London. Strategic Industrial Locations in the London Plan involve two types of areas: Industrial Business Parks (IBP) for businesses requiring a high quality environment; and Preferred Industrial Locations (PIL) for businesses with less demanding requirements CLES Consulting

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Local stakeholder believe that there could be a “tipping point” at which time the attractiveness of West London may be outweighed by the problems caused by adverse locational factors, in particular transport congestion. It is important that Brent works closely with stakeholders across West London to ensure that the area can continue to accommodate economic and housing growth, whilst at the same time creating a more open and equitable society and preserving and improving the local environment. Taking a strategic and collective approach to development and attracting investors which complement the cluster of businesses located within Wembley, Park Royal, and locations across West London more broadly, will help to maximise the impact of public resources and ensure a more integrated approach to attracting inward investment in the wider area or ‘sub-region’.

1.8.2

North London and the North West London Corridor In addition to the West London sub-regional context, it is important to factor into consideration the implications of the major growth plans for Barnet and the North West London corridor. North London comprises the boroughs of Barnet, Camden, Enfield, Hackney, Haringey, Islington and Westminster and has a population of nearly 1.7 million and provides almost 1.5 million jobs. Areas of North London border Brent and many residents travel into the area for employment as well as for shopping and leisure needs. North London stretches from the CAZ to the northern fringe of London and has an exceptionally varied set of strongly defined communities, with areas of both wealth and deprivation and of different age, environment, role, character and relative success. The London Plan suggests that the sub-region should accommodate high levels of additional housing, with over 65,000 more homes projected by 2016. In terms of employment growth, almost 300,000 more jobs are projected by 2026, especially in the Central Activities Zone and in the inner parts of the subregion. Economic performance in the sub-region has been varied in recent years with some very strong employment growth in the CAZ and its fringe, but with other areas of continuing deprivation and slow growing/declining employment, including parts of the Upper Lea Valley and industrial areas around the North Circular Road.

Strong retail growth is anticipated in the sub-region and will assist the future of many town centres, which can also benefit from strong tourism and leisure sector growth. There may need to be sensitive restructuring in some outer centres, which are especially vulnerable to structural changes in the office market. The release of surplus industrial land to other uses will need to be rigorously managed. The sub-region’s spatial structure is well suited to accommodate growth. North London contains the bulk of the CAZ in the south, with Opportunity Areas on its fringe at Kings Cross, Euston and Paddington. There are Opportunity Areas to the east in Lower and Upper Lea Valley including Tottenham Hale and to the west at Brent Cross/Cricklewood and Colindale. The Haringey Heartlands, including the centres of Wood Green, and Arsenal Holloway lie in the centre.

The North West London corridor represents a major growth area, undergoing substantial private sector-led housing and economic growth. The North West corridor prospectus23 provides a summary of the scale of opportunity within the North West London to Luton Corridor setting out how the London boroughs of Brent, Barnet, Camden and Harrow are working together with regional and national government to ensure a shared approach to this major concentration of housing and employment growth. The Wembley, South Kilburn and Burnt Oak/Colindale growth areas form part of a coordination corridor identified by the Mayor of London within The London Plan. This designation is in recognition of the level of future development that will occur along the corridor which is focused on the main arterial transport routes; the Edgware Road, A1 and M1, together with the Kings Cross / St Pancras to Luton and Euston to Milton Keynes rail lines.

The corridors future success will depend on ensuring high quality transport connections. The Thameslink programme is already underway to enhance a high quality rail connection through the heart of the corridor, while the Channel Tunnel Rail Link and planned improvements to the wider Underground, Overground and road infrastructure will also deliver improved capacity. However, further capacity is needed to meet the long-term growth requirements, with associated major improvements in key interchanges, such as West Hampstead and Cricklewood. Orbital links across the corridor, linking centres of growth such as Wembley and Brent Cross, need reinforcing through development of the road / and public transport network. It is important that Brent works closely with the boroughs of Camden, Barnet and Harrow as well as the GLA and TfL, in co-ordinating development within the corridor to ensure that development does not overload infrastructure locally, to coordinate housing growth; and to explore the potential to develop links with other places outside London including employment opportunities at Luton Airport.

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Source: London Luton Corridor Growth Prospectus (2010): http://www.lda.gov.uk/Documents/North_London_Online_2010_Prospectus_7830.pdf CLES Consulting

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Brent: Local context and economic geography The Communities and Local Government (CLG) guidance states that “local economic assessments should equip local authorities and their partners with a common understanding of economic flows...including the economic linkages and dependencies with other areas.” Specifically, this section explores Brent’s location and connections with London’s economy.

1.9.1

Location and infrastructure Brent covers an area of 4,325 hectares (17 square miles) between inner and outer North West London. It extends from Burnt Oak, Kenton and Kingsbury in the North, to Harlesden, Queen's Park and Kilburn in the South. The North Circular Road divides the less densely populated northern part of the borough from the south. Brent is bordered by the London Borough of Barnet to the east, Harrow to the north and Ealing to the west. It has small boundaries with the inner London boroughs of Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster and Camden in the south.

Figure 7: London Borough of Brent geography and communications links

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The metropolitan centres of Harrow and Ealing, together with Brent Cross regional shopping centre (all of which are outside of the borough) currently support many of the shopping and leisure demands of a large number of Brent residents. The Park Royal and Wembley areas of Brent constitute part of the ‘Western Wedge’, the arc between Paddington and Heathrow, which has been identified in The London Plan as an area of major economic opportunity and growth.

Brent is well connected by road, in physical terms25, with both central North and West London.

Radial motorways – and their linked A roads – provide the key routes in and out of London; for example the Kilburn High Road and Westway (just to the south outside the borough) connect Brent to London’s Central Activity Zone. The M4 leads into Windsor and Slough along the ‘Western Wedge’ (the ‘Silicon Corridor’ and ‘Reading growth diamond’); and the M1/A1(Thameslink Corridor) to the north and west connecting Brent with Watford, Barnet and Luton airport.

24 25

Source: Brent LDF Core Strategy 2009 Despite increasing costs of congestion, covered in the transport section of the LEA CLES Consulting

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The M25 motorway and A406 ‘North Circular’, both provide orbital transport connecting towns across Outer London and provide connections to other key transport assets in the region, such as London Heathrow Airport, and beyond along the M40 towards clusters of knowledge intensive enterprise in Oxfordshire (1 hour travel time by car from Brent).

Excellent public transport connections underpin Brent’s economic relationship with the rest of London, in particular Central London (explored further in the transport section of the LEA). In addition to the fact that many of Brent’s residents work in Central London (the Central Activity Zone – CAZ), Brent’s businesses also have important supply chain linkages to the CAZ; for example food manufacturing and catering services, and logistics operators serving both the centre and wider London economy. These businesses value the transport links and close proximity to the CAZ, as well as the comparatively low floor-space rental values compared with those in the centre.

Brent is home to major town centres in Wembley and Kilburn; a series of district centres, including Burnt Oak, Harlesden, Colindale, Willesden Green, Ealing Road, Wembley Park, Kingsbury, Preston Road and Neasden; and local centres Kenton, Queen’s Park, Kensal Rise and Sudbury shown in Figure 8:.

Figure 8: Key town centres in Brent 26

Employment within Brent tends to cluster around key town centres, primarily Wembley and also within Park Royal, both identified in the London Plan as Opportunity Areas for their potential to accommodate further growth and prosperity, shown in Figure 9:. The other town centres primarily support employment in convenience retail and services.

Each centre has its own distinct character supporting local communities, for example Kilburn area is strongly associated with its Irish and Afro-Caribbean populations and cultures; 13% of the population were born in Ireland with an even higher percentage of Irish descent, giving it the highest Irish population of any London area.

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Source: Brent Council (2010) CLES Consulting

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Wembley The planning strategy for the area aims to promote the regeneration of Wembley as a regional sports, entertainment and leisure destination; taking advantage of the opportunities presented by the Stadium development and the potential for development of sites in the surrounding area. The long-term vision is to achieve a critical mass of visitor attractions, building on the area’s current role as a major leisure and entertainment centre for London – at the same time providing the vibrant heart of Brent.

Figure 9: Critical infrastructure, opportunity areas, 2008

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Park Royal Park Royal is Europe’s largest industrial estate and the principal industrial area in West London.

Together with Willesden Junction, Park Royal extends to 700 hectares across Brent, Ealing and Hammersmith & Fulham boroughs. It includes Willesden Junction, Hanger Lane and Alperton in the west, extending to the boundary of Kensal Green Cemetery in the east. Most of the northern boundary is formed by the railway line from Euston. In the main, the A40 Western Avenue acts as the southern boundary. The vision for Park Royal is to protect and intensify employment on the Park Royal Industrial Estate by supporting sustainable business growth and environmental industries, creating an attractive working environment through improvements to public transport and the public realm and the development of a new heart offering a range of amenities.

We set out more of the opportunities and challenges to developing Park Royal and Wembley later in the LEA.

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Source: Brent LDF Core Strategy 2009 CLES Consulting

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Functional geography and workforce flows People – whether workers, consumers or customers – can and do travel within and outside of the Brent and its economic hinterland. Therefore, understanding commuting patterns is important for the LEA. Travel to work data is available from the 2001 Census and provides an indication of the areas where Brent’s residents go to work and where workers travel from to work in Brent. Whilst the age of this data limits its use, the ONS has recently published complementary data from the Annual Population Survey (also presented here) which indicates that there was no significant change in the direction of flow of Brent’s workforce and commuters between 2001 and 2008. As such the 2001 data is still relevant in showing the workforce in-flow and out-flow patterns for Brent.

By way of an overview, Figure 10: shows the Census net commuter flows between Brent and the other London Boroughs, i.e. showing the difference between inward and out commutes. This highlights that Brent is a net exporter of labour in relation to other boroughs. 69,273, an estimated 49%, of Brent’s economically active residents commute to other London Boroughs; and 36,167, an estimated 38%, of Brent’s workforce come from other boroughs. Brent’s main net import of labour is from the boroughs of Harrow, Enfield, Hillingdon and Haringey. The largest net export of labour from Brent is to the following areas:

Westminster: the centre for finance, advertising, TV and motion picture, legal services, business services, publishing - accounted for by a net export of 15,200 residents;

Camden and Ealing: centres for legal, finance, Radio and TV, each having a commuter net flow of over 6,500;

the City of London (4,142) and Tower Hamlets (1,475): agglomerations of banking services and finance;

Kensington & Chelsea (3,372) and Hammersmith and Fulham (2,896) - centres for retail, radio, TV, motion picture production and distribution.

Figure 10: Commuting flows to and from Brent 28

Figure 11: shows the levels of self-containment within the borough. The percentage of people both working and residing within local neighbourhoods across Brent is high compared to other parts of West London, suggesting that most of the firms in Brent (particularly around Wembley and Harlesden) create local employment opportunities. Further analysis of the commuting flows suggests that there is very little commuting of local residents from the south of the borough, below the North Circular, to employment within the northern parts of the borough such as Wembley; most movements in the southern part of the borough are local commutes (to Park Royal); or commutes the CAZ. 28

Source: Census 2001, Travel-to-work statistics CLES Consulting

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In comparison the majority of the commuting flows from the northern parts of the borough are into: the CAZ (in particular professional occupations travelling into the City of London); towards Ealing and Heathrow from the south western edge of the borough; and major flows towards Barnet, Camden from the north eastern / eastern edge of the borough (part of the ‘London to Luton’ corridor). More detailed maps showing commuting by occupation illustrates that residents in managerial and professional occupations are more likely to live in the north of the borough and commute outside the borough (into the CAZ) to work. Whereas lower order occupations are more likely to work locally, in particular those employed within sales, customer services, plant operative and semi- & unskilled occupations – and those with lower earnings and poor/no qualifications (shown in Figure 12:).

When these different findings are taken together they create a strong picture of commuting into Central London areas to work. Key town centres such as Wembley sources most of its workforce locally from the north of the borough, whereas Park Royal towards the south of the borough sources most of its workforce locally (or from other areas close to stations along the Bakerloo line).

Figure 11: Commuting and levels of self-containment within Brent 29

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% of people working in the area who also live there

% of people living in the area who also work there

Commuting map for ‘South Brent’ (below the North Circular)

Commuting map for ‘North Brent’ (above the North Circular)

Source: Census 2001, Travel-to-work statistics CLES Consulting

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Figure 12: Commuting trends in Brent and London 30

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Managers and senior officials

Professional occupations

Associate professional and technical

Administrative and secretarial occupations

Skills trade occupations

Sales and customer service occupations

Source: Census 2001, Travel-to-work statistics CLES Consulting

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33

Personal service occupations31

Process and machine operative

Semi and unskilled occupations

Residents with no qualâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s living & working in same area

All occupations (Wembley workplaces)

All occupations (Park Royal workplaces)

Source: Census 2001, Travel-to-work statistics CLES Consulting

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Figure 13: provides more recent survey estimates which show the proportion of jobs in Brent that are filled by people who live in the local authority district boundary. Around two-fifths (42.4%) of Brent’s employees are sourced locally. However the borough also sources workers from Harrow (11.5%), Ealing (8.1%), Barnet (6.4%), Hillingdon (2.8%), Enfield (2.6%) and Camden (2.5%).

Figure 13: Survey estimates of net flows (Brent’s workplaces), 2008

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Figure 14: shows the proportion of residents from Brent who have jobs in each of the local authority areas. The survey estimates suggest that just over a quarter (28.4%) of Brent’s residents also work in Brent, however a fifth (19.8%) work in Southwark, Westminster (5.9%), Harrow (5.2%), City of London (4.9%), Barnet (4.0%), Kensington & Chelsea (3.5%), and in Camden (2.8%). This also suggests a continuation of the trend highlighted in the census data, suggesting that Brent’s residents commute beyond West London, into North London, and increasingly into the CAZ. Figure 14: Survey estimates of net flows (Brent’s residents), 2008

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Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, 2008 Ibid CLES Consulting

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Summary findings Forecasts suggest continued but slower growth in the UK’s economy...

The short to medium term future of the global economy is likely to be dependent on two factors – the potency of the policy stimulus in prompting recovery, and whether the growth potential of the world’s major economies has been permanently dented by the global financial crisis. This, combined with large levels of public debt, means that the UK economy is likely to see a slow return to growth.

Globalisation and other changes in the global economy are working together to change the economic map of the world...

China is projected to become the second biggest economy globally by 2020, and to overtake the United States to become the largest economy by 2050. India is also projected to grow to become the third largest economy by 2050.

The Eurozone’s recovery is however the most perilous of the world’s recovery areas, due to the concerns around the stability of public finances...

There is plenty of spare capacity and slack amongst the Euro area countries.

The ILO unemployment rate in June 2010 was 10 per cent, meaning that 15.7 million people in the Eurozone are looking for work but cannot find a job. There are still concerns that if the instability in the Eurozone persists, it could tip some of it’s economies back into recession.

Another drag on recovery will be public finances...

It is clear from the results of the UK Comprehensive Spending Review34 that there will be significant cuts across most government departments and resulting job losses will add to the strain on the labour market. Whilst it is important not to overstate the repercussions of these reforms – some of the negative impact of reduced welfare spending will be off-set by residents being financially incentivised to move into work or to take on additional work – they are still likely to have a deep impact on many of Brent’s residents, particularly the long-term unemployed and low-paid.

Despite challenging conditions London remains the key driver of the UKs economy...

London’s economy contributes around £230 billion to total UK GVA, an estimated 20 per cent of total national output and has created more than 380,000 net new jobs (a 5.3% increase) in the last decade. Forecasts suggest that London will see modest but sustained recovery in the next 5 years, with longer-term growth (beyond 2015) seen in professional and business services sector. With its international outlook as a world city, London is well positioned to take advantage of the positive trends developing amongst the major emerging market economies.

Agglomeration economies remain a powerful factor supporting growth in London, especially in the Central Activity Zone (CAZ)...

Around one-third of London’s jobs are located in Central London, the largest and most productive centre of employment in Britain. The benefits of agglomeration tend to discourage employment from being spread across London; and so despite technological advances allowing for remote working, it is likely that more commercial office property and transport capacity on radial services will be needed, both within and from, the CAZ.

The future of Brent’s economy needs to be considered in terms of its location and functional role within the wider London economy...

London’s economic geography in large part determines the level and type of employment located across the 32 boroughs. Brent is not part of the London central activity zone, and the benefits of agglomeration tend to discourage employment from being evenly spread across London. Current and future development in Brent must therefore be considered in terms of relative locational advantages inherent in any particular employment site (across Outer London and compared with other UK locations), as well as the wider economic climate.

Brent contains some regionally significant assets…

Brent does contain some unique assets and performs a number of functions within the capital. It is a strategic location for a major visitor attraction in the form of the national stadium at Wembley, and contains part of the largest manufacturing area in London.

Future development in Brent will be affected by housing and retail developments in the surrounding West London area (and beyond)...

There are major retail developments at White City and Brent Cross, and the potential for major housing growth on the borough’s boundary with Barnet; and continuing commercial and residential developments in the central activity zone and into East London.

34

HM-Treasury (2010): http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/spend_index.h CLES Consulting

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ONE BOROUGH

2.1

Introduction

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The focus of this section is on the people of Brent, the surrounding geography of West London, and their role within the wider London labour market. The section examines the area’s demographic influences on the supply of labour to the economy; provides an analysis of the economic activity/inactivity characteristics of the working age population; and examines the qualifications profile and key skills issues.

People are at the heart of any economy. A growing population with the right skills base should help secure Brent’s future. But Brent and its surrounding area are changing. Demand has shifted in favour of highly skilled workers as the knowledge economy in London has grown. The challenge is to see that this demand is met, in addition to ensuring that local employer skill needs across the spectrum of qualifications and skills are fulfilled. There is also a need to tackle high levels of social exclusion, reflected in the pockets of high concentrations of worklessness, in order to maximise the area’s potential.

A growing population, a healthy labour market, access to the right training and education: these are all factors that support economic growth. As do the right social conditions, adequate housing, and an effective transport infrastructure. For individuals, education and skills are central to reaching their full potential, allowing access to employment and enabling social inclusion.

2.2

Background: Growing the labour force and skills Central London is a major source of employment for the highly qualified workforce in the region.

Around one third of degree holders resident in the Greater South East work in Central London. The relatively few jobs open to those with no qualifications are spread more evenly across London compared to the jobs taken by those with degree-level qualifications, and so are more likely to be filled by local labour.

A significant part of London’s demand for skilled workers is also met by non-Londoners from other regions of the UK and overseas. The ability to attract the top talent from all over the world is a key element of London’s global competitiveness. However, this means that young Londoners will enter a highly competitive labour market. This is especially important for those who come from a background that may not have traditionally valued skills and professional development.

A sufficient stock and flow of appropriate skills which match the changing needs of employers are crucial to the successful development of Brent’s economy and to the prosperity and fulfilment of its people. Changes in the industrial composition of Brent’s economy, including the growth of more knowledge-intensive industries - at the same time growing local service industries to support the local population in addition to tourism and night-time economy - will be the main influence on demand for skills from local employers in the future. The structure of employment is forecast to change (illustrated in the business section); with a growth in managerial, professional, associate professional and technical, and personal service occupations, and a consequently greater requirement for high-level formal qualifications.

Overall the growth in the economy, sectoral and occupational restructuring, and replacement demand (as people retire) will create a huge demand for skills at intermediate and higher level. At the same time, the more traditional craft skill areas are expected to sustain relatively stable levels of employment, but will themselves be heavily affected by replacement demand. This generates a huge demand for skills which will be a major constraint on growth if not dealt with.

Whilst the future forecast growth in London’s economy provides significant employment opportunities, low economic activity rates have severe consequences for a growing economy, reducing the available workforce, constraining output levels and reinforcing concentrations of deprivation. Low economic activity rates, and poor levels of qualifications and skills also reduce overall economic productivity and performance.

The overall level of education and skills in the workforce can have a critical impact on participation in the economy and on productivity levels. The acquisition of new skills helps individuals to find employment, especially those with limited formal education and training, as well as enabling individuals to progress in the labour market. Individuals can develop their skills through education, training and experience.

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Improved levels of skills enable individuals to utilise capital and advanced production techniques, facilitate new innovative ideas and adapt to changes in the economic environment including adopting new business practises. Skilled workers play a key role in knowledge creation and are more able and likely to receive training at work. An increasing proportion of jobs in the economy require a higher level of skills.

Significant research has been undertaken which highlights the positive relationship between skills and productivity35, suggesting that human capital, measured by years of schooling and attainment had a significant long-term impact on the growth in income per capita between the 1960s and 1990s. Therefore understanding how and why cities, towns and neighbourhoods vary in their skills composition is also central to understanding local economic performance.

Firms benefit from workers with higher skills, who are generally more efficient and able to adapt to changes in the economic environment. Skilled workers enable firms to engage in sophisticated production processes through their ability to handle innovations and generate innovative ideas.

Conversely firms can be detrimentally affected by skill deficiencies in the workforce, constraining both investment and the ability of firms to innovate.

2.2.1

Demographics This section of the baseline looks at local demographics, population change and ethnic background of residents in Brent. It also makes reference to local neighbourhoods identified using the National Statistics, Super Output Area geographies to collate local areas statistics in the borough.

The population of Brent is socially polarised (for example, skewed to lower incomes) and ethnically diverse. It has grown fast over the last 10 to 20 years, driven by inward migration of young people and families. The population, or parts of it, are also very mobile, with significant numbers of people also leaving each year. Given the growth in jobs in London, in recent years, there is a relatively low employment rate and high levels of worklessness particularly among ethnic minorities, young people and women; and a high proportion of people with no, or only low level qualifications.

The ONS estimated population of Brent is 264,900; (broadly equivalent to UK towns the size of, for example, Bolton and Walsall; this represents 19 per cent of West London and 4 per cent of London).

Following a period of rapid growth throughout the late 1990s, population growth in Brent has remained fairly static compared to local benchmark areas in the last two years (shown in Table 2:).

Between 2000 and 2008, Brent’s total population grew by 2.2 per cent, lower than West London (2.9%), London (5.3%) and the UK (4.2%). Of the West London districts, only Ealing (1.5%) experienced growth slower than Brent. However population forecasts and estimates of Brent’s population vary, reflecting the transient nature of some communities within the borough.

Independent research indicates that the population is around 289,000 and growing; the outcomes of this research are explored below.

In relative terms since 1990, the proportion of the population of working age has grown robustly, at rates exceeding West London and the UK, but lagging behind growth in London as a whole. Growth has been driven by significant growth in the percentage of young people (18 to 24 year olds); shown in Figure 17: and Table 3:. Population forecasts and ONS projections36 reveal that the increase in the size of the Indian community will drive household growth in future years. However the future retention of local residents remains an issue placing importance on growing levels of local skills, growing connections to local and regional employment sites, and improving the local housing offer in terms of quality, mix and affordability.

Table 2: Mid-year estimates of total population, 2000 to 200837 Change 2000 to 2008 2000

2008

UK

58,886,100

London West London Brent

35 36 37

Number

Percent

61,383,200

2,497,100

4.2

7,236,700

7,619,800

383,100

5.3

1,403,500

1,443,800

40,300

2.9

264,900

270,600

5,700

2.2

For example: BERR Nov 2001 “Productivity in the UK – The Regional Dimension” Oxford Economics and ONS projections

Source: ONS, Mid-year population estimates, 2000 and 2008 CLES Consulting

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2.2.2

38

Population estimates and census Accurate population estimates are also vital for the proper conduct and stewardship of services at neighbourhood level, and thus robust estimates at a local as well as at a Brent level are arguably as important. The findings of independent research38 confirmed that the minimum population of Brent in 2007 was just over 289,000 residents; almost 20,000 higher than official estimates. By â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;confirmedâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;, we mean people whose identity can be confirmed by reference to different datasets and according to assumptions for linking people to addresses and hence households.

The use official local database such as the growth in pupil numbers, new national insurance registrations, increases in properties, increased births and GP registrations well as coincidental datasets such as a range of benefits database all point to significant population growth within the last decade (up to 2007). The growth in population has been accompanied by changes in household composition, occupancy and deprivation.

There is now three thousand fewer single adult households and more two, three, four, five person households, as a consequence of which occupancy has increased, overcrowding in some areas has increased, and the vacancy rate decreased slightly.

The study also shows that population growth has been mainly in the south below an east-west line through the Welsh Harp reservoir that includes south Wembley, Willesden, Harlesden and Kilburn.

Most of the growth is due to inflows exceeding outflows from Brent, especially young pre-school children and adults. The influx of young adults in turn is having an effect on birth rates, which can be expected to climb in the medium term. The combined effect of these trends is likely to put more pressure on public services, particularly childrenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s services, education and housing.

38

Mayhew Associates (2007): Brent population estimation, household composition and change CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

39

Figure 15: Mid-year estimates of total population (percent change from 2000 to 2008) 39

Ealing

1.5

Brent

2.2

West London

2.9

Hillingdon

3.0

Harrow

3.4

Hounslow

3.7

UK

4.2

Hammersmith and Fulham

4.7

London

5.3 0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Percentage change 2000 to 2008

Figure 16: Mid-year estimates of total population, 1990 to 2008 (Index, 1990=100) 40

39 40

Source: ONS, Mid-year population estimates, 2000 to 2008 Source: ONS, Mid-year population estimates, 1990 to 2008 CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

40

Figure 17: Mid-year estimates of working age population, 1992 to 2008 (Index, 1992=100)41

Additional work on population projections was undertaken during the LEA by Oxford Economics using the ONS 2008 population projections as a starting point, and includes a range of other local economic variables (employment, unemployment, demographics) to test future population levels.

Figure 18: shows that, whilst the analysis starting point was lower than the previous 2004 and 2006 ONS projections (aligning with the revised ONS starting point for 2008), the forecast suggests quicker population growth over the next ten years within Brent. The Oxford forecasts suggest a net increase of over 5,000 residents over the next ten years, compared with ONS projections that suggest a net increase of just 2,000 residents.

Figure 18: Population projections ONS and OE (percent change from 2000 to 2008)42

41 42

Source: ONS, Mid-year population estimates, 1992 to 2008 Source: ONS, Mid-year population estimates, 2000 to 2008 CLES Consulting

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2.2.3

41

Neighbourhood population change At the local level, Figure 19:, shows the change in population in 0.5km step intervals from north to south in absolute and percentage terms. The borough showed a net increase in population over the two years to 2007; a trend line through the data for example indicates average increases ranging from 6 per cent in the north to 9 per cent in the south.

Figure 19: Two year population change (top) and turnover (bottom) in Brent, 2007 43

2.2.4

•

Population growth has been mainly in the south of the borough in a line south of the Welsh Harp reservoir that includes south Wembley, Willesden, Harlesden and Kilburn.

•

Most of the growth is due to inflows to Brent exceeding outflows from Brent especially in young pre-school children and adults.

•

The scale of the inflows and outflows is significant and exceeds, for example, migration within Brent by a considerable margin.

Age profile of population According to ONS estimates Brent has a population of over 270,000 people, with an age profile that is broadly in line with the UK average, but not when compared to the local averages. Almost a fifth (17.9%) of the population are aged under 15 years old compared to 18.1 per cent in West London and 18.2 per cent in London. Brent’s its population of 20 to 29 year olds, at 17.9 per cent, is larger the West London, London and UK averages; this is likely a result of the inward migration of young people – and families. The overall working age population (67.1%) is also higher than its local comparator boroughs in West London, suggesting a significant potential labour pool available to employers.

Table 3: Mid-year estimates of population by age group, 2008 44 Brent

Age Group

43 44

West London

Number

% of population

Number

% of population

Under 15 yrs

48,400

17.9

260,900

15 to 19 yrs

15,200

5.6

20 to 29 yrs

48,400

30 to 44 yrs

69,900

45 to 64 yrs Working age

London

UK

Number

% of population

Number

% of population

18.1

1,389,300

18.2

10,753,800

17.5

84,200

5.8

432,200

5.7

3,988,000

6.5

17.9

241,700

16.7

1,281,500

16.8

8,301,900

13.5

25.8

372,600

25.8

2,032,100

26.7

12,977,900

21.1

56,500

20.9

310,700

21.5

1,597,900

21.0

15,431,700

25.1

181,500

67.1

961,500

66.6

5,094,800

66.9

38,074,600

62.0

Source: ONS, Mid Year Population Estimates, 2005 to 2008 Source: ONS, Mid Year Population Estimates, 2008 CLES Consulting

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2.2.5

42

Age by London borough Figure 20: and Figure 21: show population by different age groups across London. Higher concentrations of younger people tend to be located within and close to the Inner London, the Thames Corridor and South East London; and within Barnet and parts of Brent â&#x20AC;&#x201C; in Stonebridge and Harlesden. Over 74 year olds are more likely to be concentrated within the outer parts of London, in particular with Enfield, northern parts of Barnet and Harrow. Within Brent, the highest numbers of older residents are located within Preston, Tokyngton and Barnhill and Queensbury.

Figure 20: Population aged 0 to 14 years old, 2009 45 Number of people aged 0 to 14 yrs

Figure 21: Population aged 75+ years old, 2009

46

Number of people aged 75+ yrs

45 46

Source: ONS, Mid Year Population Estimates, 2009 Ibid CLES Consulting

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2.2.6

43

Diversity Brent is the most culturally diverse area in the country, and one of only two boroughs in London where black and ethnic minority people are in the majority. Successive waves of inward migration have taken place throughout the boroughs history, leading to the growth of longstanding Jewish, Indian, Irish and Caribbean communities. In the 1970s large numbers of immigrants settled in Brent, mainly Gujarati-speaking Indians from East Africa. Since then, other groups have arrived, including Pakistanis, Iraqis, Afghanis, Tamils, Somalis, Kosovans, Angolans, Portuguese and more recently, Poles and other East Europeans.

Three quarters of Brent’s school children are of black or minority ethnic heritage, and over 130 languages are spoken by local children. A significant proportion of children come from families on the move four-in-ten children in Year Six were not in their current school or not in this country in their Year One education.

The mix of local communities across Brent, and the diversity of local residents, presents a significant opportunity for economic development and growth. This can provide a strong sense of place and local identity which can be promoted by local stakeholders to boost the profile of the locality.

Additionally there are also the opportunities to link with foreign markets through for example international family connections in places such as India and China.

Current policy and research recognises that half of the growth in the UK’s workforce, up to 2020, will come from BME groups.47 While ethnic diversity provides opportunities, it also presents challenges in terms of social and economic cohesion, access to opportunities and ensuring equality of access to services.

Population statistics from the Census shown Table 4: illustrate that Brent is an ethnically diverse London borough. The proportion of BME individuals in Brent stood at 54.7% in the Census 2001, much higher than the West London (37.1%), London (28.8%) and national (9.1%) levels, highlighting the diversity of residents in the borough. The largest BME community in the last census was Indian, with nearly a fifth (18.5%) of the population belonging to this ethnic group. Brent also has a large Black population (both Caribbean, 10.5%, and African, 7.8%).

Population diversity has been estimated to have grown significantly between 2001 and 2007, making Brent one of the most ethnically diverse borough’s in London and the UK. Latest experimental statistics, for 2007, estimated that over two-thirds of residents came from a BME background; and new residents from Somalia now contribute to one of the largest communities in the borough.48 Latest research49 shows that net migration to London has continued throughout the recession, and is likely to continue in during 2011, despite the prevailing economic conditions. This is largely explained by decreased net emigration by British citizens, rather than increased net immigration by non-British citizens; and movement to address a backlog of asylum seeker applications.

Table 4: Ethnic breakdown (as a proportion of the total population)

Ethnicity White (including White Irish) Mixed Asian or Asian British - Indian Asian or Asian British - Pakistani Asian or Asian British - Bangladeshi Asian or Asian British - Other Black or Black British - Caribbean Black or Black British - African Black or Black British - Other Chinese Other ethnic group

47 48 49 50

Brent

45.3 3.7 18.5 4.0 0.4 4.8 10.5 7.8 1.6 1.1 2.3

Census 2001 West London London

62.9 3.2 14.8 2.9 0.5 3.4 4.4 4.0 0.7 1.0 2.1

71.2 3.2 6.1 2.0 2.1 1.9 4.8 5.3 0.8 1.1 1.6

England

90.9 1.3 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.4

50

ONS 2007 (Experimental statistics) West Brent London England London

46.2 4.1 18.2 4.5 0.7 4.7 8.9 7.4 1.3 1.3 2.6

61.2 3.6 14.8 3.4 0.7 3.5 3.9 4.5 0.7 1.3 2.5

69.0 3.5 6.6 2.4 2.3 2.0 4.3 5.5 0.8 1.5 2.0

The Leitch Review of Skills and subsequent report - Prosperity for all in the Global Economy- World Class Skills (2006) LEA Stakeholder interviews Source: IPPR (2010): Migration Statistics Briefing: November 2010 Source: ONS Census, 2001 CLES Consulting

88.2 1.7 2.6 1.8 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.8 0.7

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2.3

44

Ethnicity across London and Brent Different ethnic groups tend to be concentrated in specific parts of the borough. The highest concentrations of Black Caribbean and Black African residents are in Harlesden and Stonebridge.

Kilburn and Dollis Hill have the highest numbers of Irish residents. Residents of Asian origin tend to live in the north and west of Brent. The borough is also home to many refugees, asylum seekers and economic migrants. After English, the main languages spoken are Gujarati, Urdu, Arabic, Somali, Tamil, Punjabi, Farsi and Albanian.

Figure 22: Residents regarding their ethnicity as from an Indian background

51

Percentage of residents

Figure 23: Residents regarding their ethnicity as from a Black/Black British background 52 Percentage of residents

51 52

Source: ONS, Census 2001; more recent â&#x20AC;&#x201C; accurate â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ward level data will only be available after the 2011 Census Ibid CLES Consulting

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Figure 24: Residents regarding their ethnicity as from a White Irish background

53

Percentage of residents

2.3.1

Religion Religion is also important for Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s residents; the borough can claim to have the highest proportion of active faith adherents in England. Local communities have built or developed many mosques, temples, gurdwaras and new churches. The main religions of Brent are Hinduism, Christianity and Islam and there are also Jews, Jains, Buddhists and Sikhs.

2.3.2

Ethnicity and employment rates Having a diverse ethnic mix such as in Brent can also lead to labour market challenges, as outlined in Table 5: below. The divergence between the employment rate of the white and non-white population is clear (a gap of 15.6 percentage points).

The Black population in particular suffers from particularly low employment rates, with just 59.6 per cent of those working age residents in employment, whilst the Indian population, although markedly less than the overall employment rate of 70.8 per cent, fares better with 66.0 per cent of its working age population in employment.

Table 5: Working age employment rate broad ethnic group, 2009 Ethnic Group White Non-white Mixed ethnic group Indian Pakistani / Bangladeshi Black or Black British Other ethnic group Ethnic Group White Non-white Mixed ethnic group Indian Pakistani / Bangladeshi Black or Black British Other ethnic group

53 54

Brent

54

West London

Number

Rate (%)

Number

Rate (%)

62,400 64,700 3,100 21,300 3,700 18,600 18,000

79.5 63.9 80.8 66.0 68.0 59.6 63.2

383,800 291,900 12,800 117,100 18,800 50,300 92,800

76.3 63.6 57.4 69.1 53.0 56.7 64.8

Number

Rate (%)

Number

Rate (%)

2,464,200 1,080,100 68,700 237,600 118,800 332,700 322,200

75.2 58.8 62.0 67.3 48.0 58.7 57.6

24,966,000 2,557,500 209,000 637,300 399,400 584,400 727,400

74.5 59.2 61.0 69.7 47.0 59.2 59.4

London

UK

Ibid Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, October 2008 to September 2009 CLES Consulting

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2.3.3

46

Population density With an average density of 61 people per hectare (pph) in 2001, Brent is well above the London and Outer London averages of 46 and 35 pph respectively. Population density increases towards the south of the borough, in particular around Harlesden and beyond into Willesden.

High population density has implications for public service delivery; it must attempt to mitigate the negative effects of over-crowding, particularly in terms of ensuring there is appropriate infrastructure in place.

Figure 25: Population density in London, 2008

55

Persons per square kilometre

2.3.4

Population and migration Natural change – the difference between births and deaths – and positive net migration have both been contributing factors to population growth in Brent. Figure 26: below shows that there has been significant net ‘internal’ migration between the local authorities in London between 2002 and 2007 (thicker arrows represent higher net migration). 25 to 44 year olds are the main component of outward migration with the main destination being Harrow and Barnet.

Brent also benefits from significant levels of inward migration, shown in Figure 27:, along with a number of other West London boroughs. Over 72,000 new National Insurance Numbers56 (NINOs) to non-UK nationals were issued across the boroughs of West London in 2009, of which 18,780 were in Brent, the second highest number of adults registering for NINOs in London.

55 56

ONS, Mid-year population estimates, 2008 NINo provides information on economically active migrants from outside the UK who register for national insurance CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

47

Figure 26: Migration patterns across London, 2002 to 2007 57

Figure 27: New National Insurance Registrations of Non-UK Nationals, 2009

57 58

ONS, Population projections and migration movements ONS, National Insurance Numbers CLES Consulting

58

Brent Local Economic Assessment

2.3.5

48

Deprivation Brent has sharp socio-economic divides, with some acute concentrations of deprivation. Nearly 15 per cent of the resident population lives in some of the most deprived wards in the country. Nearly a quarter of Brent’s households are classified as overcrowded. According to the 2007 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) Brent is the 53rd most deprived local authority in England; it was previously the 81st most deprived in the 2004 IMD. The number of Brent’s Super Output Areas (SOAs) in the 20 per cent most deprived category has risen from 33 (19%) in 2004, to 41 (23.6%) in 2007.

Figure 28: IMD, Percentage of neighbourhoods (LSOAs) in bottom 10% nationally

59

Percentage of LSOAs in bottom 10% nationally

Figure 29: IMD, Percentage of neighbourhoods (LSOAs) in bottom 20% nationally

60

Percentage of LSOAs in bottom 20% nationally

59 60

Source: ONS, Census 2001; more recent – accurate – ward level data will only be available after the 2011 Census Ibid CLES Consulting

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49

There was significant fluctuation regarding local authorities ranking between the 2004 and 2007 IMD, however, the drop experienced by Brent is one of the worst in the country with only 6 other authorities decreasing their ranking by a greater amount. Within the category of most deprived authorities in England in 2004, Brent also experienced the greatest drop. Brent is the most deprived borough compared with its West London neighbours. Changes in Brent’s deprivation level can be seen across Brent where the majority of neighbourhoods have become relatively more deprived. In fact only 2 of Brent’s 21 neighbourhoods have become less deprived compared with their deprivation levels in IMD 2004 (Harlesden and Queens Park).

The main concentrations of deprivation in Brent are in the south of the borough, although there are pockets in the north and west (Kenton and Queensbury), as highlighted in Figure 30: Deprivation levels in the south have worsened, in particular areas of Barnhill, Williston Green, Dollis Hill and Dudden Hill. There is a direct link with low earnings and benefit dependency in Brent. The spatial gradient of relative wealth and poverty is strikingly highlighted by the fact that male life expectancy increases by each northward Bakerloo station line, with Northwick Park having an extra ten years compared to Harlesden. Only two of Brent’s wards have become less deprived compared with 2004 (Harlesden and Queens Park). The extent of deprivation is one of the factors holding back the area from achieving more dynamic growth.

High levels of deprivation have negative consequences for investment and the attractiveness of Brent for business. The patterns created linking housing, crime and employment deprivation appear to show consistency over time, and also to show a relationship between an individual’s labour market status and their position in the housing market. Research is not conclusive on the connections between these factors, but it may well be true that the financial incentives of moving into work may be less clear to those living in social housing, and that tenants may have difficulties in moving between social housing which impairs labour mobility. These issues may also be compounded with other factors that combine to reduce employment chances in areas with high unemployment.

Figure 30: Indices of Multiple Deprivation scores within Brent, 2007

61

The IMD is measured through 7 domains (Income, Employment, Health, Education, Barriers to Housing and Services, Crime and Living Environment). The most deprived domains in Brent are Barriers to Housing and Services and Income. Brent is in the top 20 most income deprived local authorities in the country.

61

Source: IMD 2007 CLES Consulting

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50

Just over 16 per cent of Brent’s SOAs are within the top 10 per cent most deprived. Most are within the borough’s priority neighbourhoods. In terms of barriers to services and housing almost 64 per cent of Brent’s SOAs are within the top 10 per cent most deprived in the country compared to 36 per cent in 2004. Stonebridge contains the top two worst ranking SOAs in the country (St Raphaels, Brentfield and Mitchell Brook). Access to appropriate housing and distance to amenities such as GP surgeries and Post Offices are the main factors affecting performance in this domain. Much of Brent is also classified as being within the worst 15 per cent of the country in terms of education, skills and training deprivation, with an extremely high proportion falling within the worst 5 per cent.

Figure 31: Indices of Multiple Deprivation by sub-domain, 2007 62

62

Income

Housing and Services

Employment

Crime

Health

Education and Skills

Source: IMD 2007 CLES Consulting

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2.3.6

51

Local neighbourhood typology of change and deprivation Most of the typologies which have been developed to classify places are based on the socioeconomic composition of areas. While this can produce valuable insights into the differences between places, it takes no account of the different functional roles that might be played by apparently similar areas. For example, the most widely-used classification of deprived areas – the Index of Multiple Deprivation - is a powerful measure of deprivation but, since it is based on the static compositional attributes of areas, it does not throw light on the fact that deprived areas can differ in terms of the functional role that they play in the housing market. As part of its research programme, the Centre for Urban Policy Studies (CUPS) at the University of Manchester has developed an innovative typology of deprived neighbourhoods; including Brent, shown below.

Figure 32: A typology of deprived neighbourhoods in Brent 63 Key: Movements localities

to/from

Table 6: Key – A typology of deprived neighbourhoods within Brent 64 Typology Isolates: These are areas where most in-movers and most out-movers both come-from and go-to similarly or more deprived neighbourhoods They can therefore be thought of as areas with a largely 'trapped' population only able to move from one deprived area to another. Hence they are socially more isolated in the context of the housing market.

Transits: Most in and out movers come from and go to less deprived areas; as in the case of many parts of Brent.

Typically, this will represent the early move onto the housing ladder for young households not yet able to afford more expensive homes.

Policy emphasis Isolates are areas in which the most intense full-on intervention is called for since they appear to contain a trapped population with households unable readily to escape their deprivation. In contrast, the other three neighbourhood types can be argued to play more positive roles in the housing market, but may contain immobile households to whom policy might be more specifically targeted.

Escalators: Most incomers come from similar or more deprived areas and most out-movers go to less deprived areas. Hence, these neighbourhoods represent a process of upward progression through housing and labour markets.

Transit and Escalator neighbourhoods play an important functional role within the broader housing market. Despite their level of deprivation, they typically provide affordable housing (within the London context) for those at an early stage of housing progression.

Improvements – for example to the stock of housing – may in part be expected to come not from the public purse, but through working with the private sector to grow local joint investment.

Gentrifiers: The social composition of these areas is altered since most in-movers come from less deprived areas and most out-movers go to equally or more deprived locations. While this may not entail the physical displacement of poor households, it can be seen as a form of gentrification as the areas will 'improve' their social composition over time.

Gentrifier areas may pose concerns about whether deprived households moving out to other neighbourhoods will be able to secure suitable accommodation, so one of the questions relevant to regeneration may be affordability and availability in the broader housing market outside the immediate targeted deprived neighbourhood itself.

63 CLG (2008): A typology of the functional roles of deprived neighbourhoods – area shown focuses on the most deprived neighbourhoods in the south of the borough 64 Ibid

CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

52

The typology holds valuable lessons for policy. If all deprived areas are not the same in terms of the roles they play, policy interventions should recognise such differences and tailor policy more sensitively. Four types of deprived neighbourhood were identified based on the level of deprivation of areas to which most out-migrants moved and the areas from which most in-migrants came. They are summarised in table 5.

As Figure 32: clearly shows, the majority of ‘deprived’ neighbourhoods within Brent (and most of West London) are classified as ‘Transits’, where most in and out movers come from and go to less deprived areas. Typically, this will represent the early move onto the housing ladder for young households not yet able to afford more expensive homes. Brent has a high degree of population churn and transience, reflected by the fact that Brent has the highest level of National Insurance Number registrations per head in London. The borough is a key destination for a lot of people registering when moving to the UK, however when they get a job they typically move out of the borough, either closer to their place of work, or to take longer commutes from other suburban locations across the south east.

In terms of suggested policy response, ‘Transit’ neighbourhoods play an important functional role within the broader housing market. Despite their level of deprivation, they should aim to provide a mix of affordable housing for those at an early stage of housing progression. Policy concern in these types of area needs to be primarily on households who are ‘left behind’ and remain long-term.

Policy also needs to work on mitigating any adverse effects arising from population instability, for example loss of community cohesion, and reducing the risks in the most vulnerable individuals and families being restricted to sub-standard accommodation, where they become increasingly concentrated in areas of low desirability and demand.

CLES Consulting

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2.4

53

The labour market Overall activity and employment levels in Brent are relatively high and on a par with the sub-regional and regional averages, despite the impacts of the recession. However, the nature of much of the labour market activity is in lower paid, lower value occupations, such as sales/customer services and elementary occupations, reflecting the overall skills profile for the borough.

Worklessness is a significant challenge in London. Rates of employment among women are significantly lower in London than elsewhere in the country. Child poverty is higher, partly as a result of low pay. Income polarisation is much greater, with much of the population skewed to the top and the bottom ends of the pay scale. In part this is because many of the high wage jobs in banking and professional services increase demand for cleaning and other low wage jobs. Manufacturing and other mid-range jobs are the ones where technology has reduced the numbers of people needed. So for inner London residents, higher qualifications are required in order to get a well paid job, and so participation and achievement in education and training is critical to future prosperity.

2.4.1

Workforce: economic activity and employment Brent is part of an extensive labour market and the borough has highly permeable boundaries, particularly in relation to the movement of higher skilled workers. Commuting patterns show, as elsewhere in London, that there is a significant commuting both through and from Brent into the Central Activity Zone (CAZ); and from Brent elsewhere in London, particularly to North and West London.

As wage levels are lower in Brent than London as a whole, people will also commute to other parts of the capital for better paid jobs. From the point of view of the impact on the economy, availability of appropriate skills and the low employment rate within Brent will have impact on local businesses.

As illustrated in the economic context section of the LEA, many local businesses rely upon local labour â&#x20AC;&#x201C; in particular within sales, plant and machine operative occupations, and lower skills jobs.

Higher levels of economic participation drive further local consumption of goods and services and therefore economic growth of local businesses, helping to reduce the economic and social consequences of worklessness.

The employment rate in Inner London (and Brent) is lower than many other parts of the UK, despite the fact that the area has undergone a number of years of the highest rate of jobs growth in the country. The issues behind this have been studied in detail both within the region by the GLA, and nationally. In this report we have taken the detailed analysis of the issues and barriers from a report on tackling worklessness in London produced by the Treasury65.

Table 7: shows that in 2009, over 141,000 residents, equating to three-quarters (74.3%) of Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population, were economically active (a common measure of the available labour supply of an area, i.e. residents in employment or actively seeking work). This is marginally lower than the average for West London (75.8%), London (74.9%) and the UK (76.3%). 128,000 residents in Brent were in employment, representing 67.7% of the working age population. This figure is slightly below the London average (68%) and lags considerably behind the national average (70.2%).

Further, the employment rate for ethnic minorities in Brent is even lower at 64.8% of the working age population in 2009. Further research66, published by the GLA shows for example, that across the capital, Pakistani and Bangladeshi residents are almost twice as likely to be economically inactive compared to the average. Of the economically inactive group, Pakistani women are more likely to be looking after a family or be studying than other groups. Other barriers to economic participation include costs of childcare, language and literacy skills and access to local public services, advice and guidance.

The employment rate is also significantly lower for females in Brent compared to males. In 2009 the employment rate for women stood at 61.1 per cent compared to 74.2 per cent for men. This gap was marginally wider than the London average. Employment rates for women in London lag behind the GB average; women are much less likely to be in employment if they have dependent children than similar women elsewhere in the UK. The table also shows that the ILO unemployment rate (8.9%) is similar to the West London (9.6%) and London levels (9.2%), although higher than the UK level (8.0%).

65 66

HM-Treasury (2007): Employment opportunity for all: tackling worklessness in London Source: GLA (2009): CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

54

Table 7: Economic activity and employment rates by gender and ethnicity, 2009 Brent

West London

67

London

UK

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Percent

Percent

Economic activity rate - working age

141,000

74.3

761,600

75.8

74.9

76.3

Employment rate - working age

128,400

67.7

688,400

68.5

68.0

70.2

% of working age who are employees

100,300

52.9

573,700

57.1

56.7

60.7

% of working age who are self employed

27,200

14.4

111,700

11.1

10.9

9.0

Unemployment rate - working age

12,600

8.9

73,200

9.6

9.2

8.0

Economic activity rate males - working age

77,900

81.5

420,500

82.7

82.3

82.6

Employment rate males - working age

71,000

74.2

379,000

74.5

74.8

75.1

% of working age males who are employees

50,200

52.5

298,500

58.7

59.4

61.8

% of working age males who are self employed

20,300

21.2

78,700

15.5

15.0

12.9

Unemployment rate males - working age

7,000

8.9

41,600

9.9

9.1

9.1

Economic activity rate females - working age

63,100

67.1

341,100

68.7

67.4

70.1

Employment rate females - working age

57,400

61.1

309,500

62.3

61.1

65.3

% of working age females who are employees

50,100

53.3

275,200

55.4

53.9

59.7

% of working age females who are self employed

7,000

7.4

33,000

6.6

6.7

5.2

Unemployment rate females - working age

5,700

9.0

31,600

9.3

9.3

6.8

Economic activity rate - working age

63,900

76.8

422,500

79.5

79.0

77.6

Employment rate - working age

59,700

71.8

398,400

74.9

73.4

71.9

Economic activity rate - working age

73,700

71.6

336600

71.6

67.5

67.3

Employment rate - working age

67,600

64.8

288,100

61.3

58.1

58.4

Total for working age population

Males

Females

White residents

BME residents

Figure 33: shows that the patterns of employment are not uniform across West London. Higher levels of resident employment exist in Ealing and Hammersmith and Fulham, with Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment levels exceeding both the West London and London levels. The employment rate in Brent has historically been lower than the average for West London, London and the UK. Although the gap closed during the second of the 1990s, it fell considerably during 2000 and 2001, reinforcing the divergences in resident employment levels before the rate picked up once more from 2003 onwards. Figure 34: shows that over the last five years, the gap has again narrowed and now Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment levels are on a par with the average for London.

67

Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, October 2008 to September 2009 CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

55

Figure 33: Employment rates (percentage of the working age population), 2009

Hillingdon

68

73.6

Harrow

71.1

United Kingdom

70.2

Hounslow

70.2

West London

68.5

London

68.0

Brent

67.7

Hammersmith and Fulham

64.6

Ealing

64.5 58.0

60.0

62.0

64.0

Figure 34: Employment rates, 2004 to 2009

68

Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, April 2009 to March 2010

69

Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, 2004 to 2009

69

CLES Consulting

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

Brent Local Economic Assessment

2.4.2

56

Employment rates and inward migration Jobs growth in Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s travel-to-work area, (and the wider London labour market), has increased significantly in recent years; despite a net reduction of job losses within Brent itself in the last 2 to 3 years. The Treasury report70 argues that almost half of the increase in the size of the working age population in London since 1994 can be accounted for by a doubling in the number of full-time students (not working). The difference between London and elsewhere, is that in other parts of the country while the student population has also increased, more of them are working.

One of the features of inner London boroughs (and parts of Brent which border inner London) is low employment rates, and high levels of unemployment. Ethnic minority unemployment is particularly high, with Black and Black British being disproportionately represented among the claimant count unemployment in Brent (particularly in the south of the borough); although white residents have so far experienced the brunt of the recession to a greater extent than other groups in terms of increased levels of unemployment.

London also has more individuals facing multiple barriers to work than the rest of the UK. However the low employment rate cannot be explained wholly by the concentration of disadvantaged individuals within Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s workforce. While London is not unique in this respect, the additional issues that go to make up this additional place factor are, The Treasury report argues, that the attractiveness of the capital to migrants, along with the increased demand for jobs from the suburbs and outside London; both factors result in significant additional competition for jobs. This is particularly true for lower skilled jobs.

More detailed work by the London School of Economics71 captures the important issues which have a strong impact upon areas that have benefitted from large inward migration such as Brent. The work reports that new migrants to London come from many places across the world, but share characteristics of relative youth, above average qualifications (and a high proportion of international qualifications); and receive positive ratings by employers. Those who come from richer countries tend to remain for shorter periods (particularly the most qualified), while those from less developed countries are far more likely to make London their long-term home.

Two distinct positive effects of migration are its qualitative impact on the London labour force and economy, through diversity, flexibility, international experience and skill sets; and its quantitative contribution through expanding labour supply and thus enabling employment growth and reducing upward wage pressure.

Migrants work in most types of job in London. There are concentrations mainly from richer countries in the financial and business service sectors. Many migrants also work in catering and hospitality.

A8 in-migrants are particularly concentrated in construction.72 Those coming from less developed countries tend (at least initially) to take up lower status jobs than their qualifications would warrant.

Over time this differentiation tends to disappear as people progress within the labour market.

An effect of the concentration of migrants in the worst paid segment of the labour market has been a significant downward pressure on wages at the bottom end of the market. This seems to have encouraged job growth in lower-skilled occupations. However average earnings among workers in this sector have suffered, falling behind growth in the cost of living. At the same time the gap between earnings levels for this group in London and those in the rest of the UK has also been substantially eroded. Both employment rates and earnings among new migrants tend to be lower than for otherwise comparable Londoners. This suggests that their potential is not being fully used at present by London employers.

70 71 72

HM Treasury (2007): Employment opportunity for all: tackling worklessness in London LSE (2007): The impact of recent immigration on the London economy A8 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the 8 eastern and central European accession countries of the EU25 CLES Consulting

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2.4.3

57

Worklessness and benefit claimants Worklessness is a key issue, since work is the main means of income for most people. Lack of work is linked to poverty, ill health, crime, substance abuse, low school attainment, and family breakdown. This has implications for community regeneration, the economic vitality of neighbourhoods, and local capacity. There are a number of factors impacting upon worklessness and preventing access to job opportunities, including the following:

Employability: lack of skills, lack of work experience, and personal problems.

Employer attitudes and practices: reluctance to recruit long term unemployed, discrimination, use of informal recruitment channels, requirement for formal qualifications.

Specific barriers to work: responsibilities for caring for others, distance and cost of getting to work, cost of education and training, insecurity of work and concern over financial benefits.

Accessing job opportunities: lack of information on work and training opportunities, lack of motivation, poor application and presentation, matching clients with job opportunities.

Recent ILO unemployment levels in Brent are similar to the levels in 2005 (shown in Figure 35:) however rates of change in unemployment are significantly lower in Brent compared with those seen on average across London and nationally. This was due to the marked improvement in the number of residents in employment over this time (albeit from a low base). However headline unemployment data also disguises the fact that unemployment and worklessness disproportionately affects residents amongst particular ethnic minority groups within Brent, and also residents with: poor skill levels; with a limiting illness or disability; lone parents; and young people aged 18 to 24.

Another factor to consider is that, as with many London boroughs, the employment rate for women in Brent is particularly low â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a major reason for this is the cost of child care (and to a lesser extent, availability) but it can also be attributable to cultural factors â&#x20AC;&#x201C; e.g. some ethnic minority groups where women traditionally do not work, and the lack of availability of flexible and part-time occupations.

Table 8: ILO unemployment (percentage of working age population), 2000 to 2009

2000 2009 Change 2000 to 09

Brent Number Percent 11,000 9.4 12,600 8.9 1,600

14.5%

73

West London Number Percent 41,000 6.1 73,200 9.6

London Number Percent 241,000 7.0 368,800 9.2

Number 1,450,000 2,428,800

Percent 5.3 8.0

32,200

91,400

751,800

67.5%

78.5%

53.0%

GB

Figure 35: ILO unemployment (percentage of working age population), 2004 to 2010

73 74

Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, October 2008 to September 2009 Ibid CLES Consulting

74

Brent Local Economic Assessment

2.4.4

58

An overview of benefits claimants The proportion of the total number of working age residents claiming benefits in Brent is currently higher than the average for both West London and London; this extends across both active and inactive benefits such as Jobseekers Allowance (JSA), Incapacity Benefit/Employment Support Allowance (IB) and Lone Parent Income Support (LPIS).

Figure 36: shows that the most commonly claimed benefit in Brent is Incapacity Benefit, with 12,450 claimants (6.9% of the working age population); higher than the West London (6.0%) and London (6.2%) averages, but lower than the national rate (7.1%). The proportion of people who receive Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) and Lone Parent benefits is higher than comparator rates. Key benefit rates in total remain notably higher than sub-regional, regional and national levels.

Brent’s total benefit caseload has dropped over the last decade, illustrated in Figure 36: from 18.3% in 1999 to 16.8% in 2009. This represents a decrease of -1.5 percentage points. For most of the past decade Brent has experienced static levels of benefit claimants. However the impacts of the recession have meant a marked increase, mainly due to increases in JSA clients. Changes to the benefits system are likely to lead to a significant number of people actively seeking work across London and in Brent; however the full impacts of changes to a ‘universal system’ are yet to be seen.

Table 9: Total key benefit claimants (JSA, IB/ESA and LP), 2009 Total key benefit claimants

Job Seeker's Allowance

75

Incapacity Benefits

Number

% of population

Number

% of population

Number

% of population

Number

% of population

5,840,290

15.8

1,502,155

3.9

2,607,610

7.1

695,670

1.9

London

782,940

15.4

218,608

4.3

313,750

6.2

134,340

2.6

West London

141,590

14.7

38,551

4.0

57,590

6.0

23,130

2.4

Brent

30,450

16.8

9,459

5.2

12,450

6.9

4,830

2.7

GB

Figure 36: Total key benefit claimants (JSA, IB/ESA and LP), 1999 to 2009

75 76

Lone Parent

Source: ONS, DWP Benefits, 2009 Source: ONS, DWP Benefits, 1999 to 2009 CLES Consulting

76

Brent Local Economic Assessment

2.4.5

59

Job seekers allowance claimants Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) is an economically active benefit that covers those who are moving in and out the job market. Nearly 9,500 people claim JSA across Brent corresponding to 5.2 per cent of the working age population (3.9% nationally and 4.0 and 4.3 across West London and London respectively). In common with the rest of the country, the claimant count in Brent increased rapidly as a result of the recession. The number of people claiming jobseekers allowance increased from 6,025 in May 2008 to 9,459 in May 2010; an increase of 3,434 claimants. This represents an increase of 57.1 per cent over the period, below the average for London (67.5%) and significantly below the national average (+80.6%).

Table 10: shows that three-fifths (59.7%) of those claiming JSA benefit had done so for less than 6 months, lower than the average for London (61.4%) and the UK (60.0%). However the proportion claiming benefits over 12 months (long-term unemployed) was much higher, accounting for 19.3% of claimants, compared with an average of 16.3 per cent in London and 17.7 per cent in the UK â&#x20AC;&#x201C; this could indicate that there is a higher proportion of local residents with multiple barriers to work than the London average. Youth unemployment is not as prominent an issue in Brent compared with the sub-regional, regional and national trends, with young people representing just 19.7 per cent of the total stock of JSA claimants compared with 22.5 per cent in London and 28.2 per cent in the UK; shown in Table 11:. This also correlates with the comparatively low levels of young people Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEETs) in Brent; a positive signs for the future strength of the labour market.

Table 10: JSA claimants by duration (percentage of total JSA claimants), 2010 77 Less than 6 months

6 to 12 months

1 to 2 years

Over 2 years

Number

% of total

Number

% of total

Number

% of total

Number

% of total

UK

901,435

60.0

329,345

21.9

222,280

14.8

43,150

2.9

London

134,160

61.4

48,155

22.0

30,005

13.7

5,680

2.6

West London

24,730

64.1

8,280

21.5

4,670

12.1

760

2.0

Brent

5,645

59.7

1,920

20.3

1,220

12.9

610

6.4

Table 11: JSA claimants by age (percentage of total JSA claimants), 2010 78

UK

Total

Under 25s

25 to 34 yrs

35 to 44 yrs

45 to 54 yrs

55 to 59 yrs

60 to 64 yrs

Number

% of total

% of total

% of total

% of total

% of total

% of total

1,502,155

28.2

24.5

21.4

18.1

6.3

1.1

London

218,608

22.5

26.2

24.1

20.2

6.0

0.8

West London

38,551

21.5

26.4

24.2

20.4

6.4

0.9

Brent

9,459

19.7

26.9

24.8

21.5

6.0

0.7

Figure 37: JSA claimants, volume by ward in Brent, 2010 79

77 78 79

Source: ONS, Claimant Count, May 2010 Ibid Ibid CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

60

Figure 38: JSA claimants (percentage of the working age population), 2000 to 2010 80

Figure 39: JSA claimant trends over longer time-frame, 1992 to 2010

80 81

Source: ONS, Claimant Count, May 2000 to May 2010 Ibid CLES Consulting

81

Brent Local Economic Assessment

61

Within Brent, the communities with the highest levels of JSA claimants are Harlesden (960), Stonebridge (840), Kilburn (780) and Kensal Green (650). Over half of residents in Harlesden and Stonebridge Park (the area close to Park Royal industrial estate) have an annual income of less than ÂŁ10,500; and almost a third (30%) of residents have no qualifications. The maps below illustrate the main concentrations of JSA claimants (Figure 40: high concentration of JSA claimants = red) predominantly in the south of the borough; and change in the claimant rate across Brent between 2007 and 2009 (Figure 41:, a high increase in JSA claimants = red).

Figure 40: JSA claimant count, 2009 82

>STONEBRIDGE >HARLESDEN

>KILBURN

>KENSAL GREEN

Figure 41: Change in JSA claimants, 2007 to 2009 83

>STONEBRIDGE >HARLESDEN

>KILBURN >KENSAL GREEN

82 83

Source: ONS, Claimant Count, May 2009 Source: ONS, Claimant Count, May 2007 to 2009 CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

62

Table 11 illustrates that non-white groups are over represented in terms of claiming economically active benefits, with the JSA rate of 4.0 per cent comparing unfavourably with the 1.8 per cent for the white population.84 This has been accentuated in particular within the Black population, accounting for 55 per cent of total BME claimants. There are also notably high rates within the mixed race population and among other ethnic minorities.

Tables 12 and 13 show that for both the white and non-white population, the local trend for JSA claimants by duration generally conforms with sub-regional, regional and national patterns. For both groups, the majority (two-thirds) have been claiming for up to 6 months. However there is a larger divergence between Brent and London when looking at longer-term unemployment, especially for residents that have been unemployed between 6 months and a year, suggesting that the recession has had a disproportionate impact upon residents from a BAME background.

Table 14 illustrates that within the white claimant population in Brent, there are fewer that are aged under 25 years in contrast to the comparator geographies, but the proportion of claimants aged 25 to 49 years is notably higher than that for West London, London; and markedly higher than Great Britain. The age distribution of BAME claimants is largely in line with the comparators, although Brent does have the smallest proportion of non-white claimants who are aged under 25 year olds.

Table 12: JSA claimants, by ethnicity, 2010 (percentage of total claimants) Ethnic group White Mixed Asian or Asian British Black or Black British Chinese or other BME Total

Total Claimants 2,260 465 1,470 3,235 665 5,840

% of the ethnic group 1.8 4.2 1.9 6.8 6.3 4.0

Table 13: JSA claimants by duration, 2010 (percentage of total claimants) Total

Less than 6 months

6 to 12 months

White residents Brent West London London GB BAME residents Brent West London London GB

85

Number 2,260 14,490 96,790 1,129,275

Number 1,405 9,385 60,400 684,785

% of total 62.2 64.8 62.4 60.6

Number 425 3,100 20,930 247,165

% of total 18.8 21.4 21.6 21.9

Number 5,840 20,525 99,245 216,195

Number 3,505 13,230 60,335 130,900

% of total 60.0 64.5 60.8 60.5

Number 1,240 4,515 22,620 48,760

% of total 21.2 22.0 22.8 22.6

86

1 year and above % of Number total 435 19.2 2,005 13.8 15,460 16.0 197,320 17.5 % of Number total 1,095 18.8 2,780 13.5 16,295 16.4 36,535 16.9

Table 14: JSA claimants by age and ethnicity, 2010 (percentage of total claimants) 87 White residents Brent West London London GB BAME residents Brent West London London GB

Total Number 2,260 14,490 96,790 1,129,275 Total Number 5,840 20,525 99,245 216,195

Under 25yrs % of total 15.3 20.9 22.0 28.6 Under 25yrs % of total 21.7 22.1 23.1 25.0

25 to 49 yrs % of total 66.6 60.0 60.4 55.2 25 to 49 yrs % of total 63.7 63.9 63.6 63.1

Aged 50+ % of total 18.1 19.2 17.7 16.2 Aged 50+ % of total 14.6 14.0 13.4 11.9

84 Note that JSA claimant data by ethnic minority does not equate with total JSA figures, as administration of the benefit allows claimants not to reveal their ethnicity; and there is also a â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;not specified/not knownâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; category in the current data system 85 Source: ONS, Claimant Count, May 2010 86 Ibid 87 Ibid

CLES Consulting

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2.4.6

63

Incapacity Benefits (IB), health and well-being The restructuring of the national economy has clearly had an impact in Brent during the 1980â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s and early 1990â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s, disadvantaging those who have been in unskilled occupations for most of their working lives. The effects of those years are still being felt in parts of Brent where residents held few formal qualifications and transferable skills to take into modern knowledge intensive industries. Living in poverty generally contributes to poorer health, wellbeing and social isolation. The statistics show that people on low incomes are more likely to have a life limiting health condition, take less exercise and have a shorter life.

Incapacity Benefit is the most commonly claimed out of work benefit in Brent. In total there were just under 12,500 incapacity benefit claimants in November 2009, 6.9 per cent of Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the working age population. This is slightly lower than the national rate (7.1%) but higher than West London (6.0%) and London (6.2%). Many of these are long term claimants, with 76.0 per cent claiming for over two years, slightly lower than the national level. Three fifths (59.1%) of claimants are aged over 45. The distribution of IB claimants by duration, age and gender broadly reflects the regional and national picture.

Table 15: Incapacity benefit claimants by duration, 2009 Less than 6 months

6 to 12 months

88

1 to 2 years

Over 2 years

Number

% of total

Number

% of total

Number

% of total

Number

% of total

GB

242,450

9.3

144,090

5.5

202,040

7.7

2,019,030

77.4

London

29,260

9.3

18,060

5.8

24,740

7.9

241,690

77.0

West London

5,460

9.5

3,240

5.6

4,770

8.3

44,110

76.6

Brent

1,200

9.6

730

5.9

1,070

8.6

9,460

76.0

Table 16: Incapacity benefit claimants by age, 2009 89

GB London

Total

Under 25

25 to 34 yrs

35 to 44 yrs

45 to 54 yrs

55 to 59 yrs

60 to 64 yrs

Number

% of total

% of total

% of total

% of total

% of total

% of total

2,607,610

6.4

12.9

22.1

29.7

17.9

11.1

313,750

5.7

13.5

24.8

32.1

16.3

7.6

West London

57,590

5.2

13.2

23.4

32.4

17.5

8.2

Brent

12,450

4.4

12.8

23.6

33.7

17.4

8.0

Figure 42: Incapacity Benefit, volume by ward in Brent, 2009 90

88 89 90

Source: DWP, November 2009 Ibid Ibid CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

64

Figure 43: Incapacity benefit claimants, 1999 to 2009 91

Within the borough, the highest concentration of Incapacity Benefit claimants are residents of: Stonebridge (1,030); Harlesden (965); and Kilburn (955). The maps below illustrate the key concentrations of IB claimants (Figure 44:, high levels of IB claimants = red); and change in the claimant rate across Brent between 2007 and 2009 (Figure 45:, high increase in IB claimants = red).

91

Source: ONS, DWP Benefits, 1999 to 2009 CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

Figure 44: IB claimant count, 2009

65 92

>STONEBRIDGE >HARLESDON

>KILBURN

Figure 45: Change in IB claimants, 2007 to 2009

>STONEBRIDGE >HARLESDON

92

Source: ONS, Working Age Client Group, November 2009 CLES Consulting

>KILBURN

Brent Local Economic Assessment

2.4.7

66

Health and well-being in Brent One of the greatest challenges in bringing more of the economically inactive population into work is that there are a series of inter-related problems that must first be addressed. These include: poor skills, health issues and concentrations of disadvantage. This is challenging and will require a step change in activity to increase the number of workless residents finding employment, and reduce the number of new claimants. Some of the health inequality challenges facing London are common across the country. Throughout the UK, two broad groups of conditions cause the vast majority of avoidable or premature deaths – cancers and vascular disease. There are dramatic socio-economic inequalities in the prevalence of these diseases. As with the rest of the country, London is facing an obesity epidemic.

At a borough wide level life expectancy is at the national average at 82.6 years for women and 76.4 years for men. However, these figures mask the gap between the lowest level 71.7 years for men living in Harlesden and 81 years for men living in Northwick Park, a gap of 9.3 years. Circulatory diseases, including heart disease and stroke, and cancers are the most common cause of death in Brent. People most likely to die prematurely from these health conditions are men under 75 living in Harlesden and Stonebridge. The comparison of previous IMD maps and the maps of average lifeexpectancy across London - shown later in this section - are also striking, illustrating the relationship between deprivation, economic prosperity and health.

In terms of socio-economic groups, obesity is highest among those in ‘routine and manual occupations’ often living in those parts of London with the poorest health and deprivation indicators.

Childhood obesity is a particular cause for concern and represents a future burden of chronic illhealth and premature death. The prevalence of type 2 (typically stress and weight related) diabetes in Brent is also high compared to the national average with 4.6% of the population being diagnosed with the condition, although the proportion that are undiagnosed may be closer to 6%. Women particularly from the Asian population tend to be most affected although the death rate from diabetes related illness is higher amongst men.

The incidence of mental health problems in Brent is also higher than the national average with 8% more admissions into secondary care for mental health disorders. Poor mental health affects many Londoners and often goes hand-in-hand with physical health problems. Again, the burden of mental ill-health is not distributed equally. For example, the patient mix in London’s mental health services includes much higher numbers of people from deprived communities. Specific groups of Londoners with high rates of mental health problems include refugees and asylum seekers, homeless people, and those who misuse alcohol and drugs.

Smoking has been identified as the single greatest cause of preventable illness and premature death. While smoking rates for the borough as a whole are in line with the rest of England at 25.7 per cent this varies between an estimated 40 per cent of residents in Stonebridge who are smokers and 16 per cent in Kenton. Young, single people are also more likely to smoke, a group which is strongly represented in the Brent population.

Sexual heath is a critical issue for many young people with an overall increase in the diagnosis of sexually transmitted infections, particularly Chlamydia predominantly amongst the under 25 age group. While the increase is in part due to better diagnostic techniques consultation with young people highlights the need for access to sexual health information and services as a high priority.

This includes contraceptive services and while there has been a steady decrease in teenage pregnancy the current rate of 41.6 conceptions per 1,000 is still slightly above the England average.

Obesity is the second most significant contributory factor to ill health and preventable disease.

Overall estimates of adult obesity levels in Brent are below the England average at 19.6 per cent of people compared to 22.1 per cent of the population nationally. However a recent study of school children in Brent found the level of obesity to be 16.3 per cent, slightly above the national average of 15 per cent.

Of more concern than the current obesity rates are the future implications of poor diet and lack of exercise. Brent has one of the lowest adult physical activity rates in England with just over half (56%) reporting they do not participate in any sporting or physical activity and only 15 to 20 per cent taking exercise on 3 occasions a week for 30 minutes. Respondents to recent sport and leisure survey cited no transport, high costs, and lack of awareness as the greatest barriers to more participation in sporting activity.93

93

Brent Council (2010): Assessment of sport and leisure in the Borough (and assessment of swimming and outdoor sports facilities).

CLES Consulting

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67

With economic inactivity four times higher than unemployment94 in Brent, by far the greatest challenge is addressing the disproportionate numbers of people who are economically inactive and excluded from, or not accessing, mainstream employment support services. Table 17: shows that of the 12,500 residents claiming IB almost half (42.8%) claimed this was due to poor mental health, similar to the average for London (43.3%), and GB (43.4%); reflected within national studies.95 Whilst mental health issues are most prevalent amongst benefit claimants, Brent has a higher proportion of claimants (2.4%) with â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;nutritional and metabolic disordersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; (which includes diabetes) compared with the average for London (1.9%) and GB (1.4%).

The number of health notifications relating to tuberculosis has also risen significantly across London and Brent in the last 18 months. Brent has the second highest rate of notifications in London (109 per 100,000 residents) after the London Borough of Newham (117)96.

Table 17: Incapacity benefit / severe disablement, conditions of claimants, 2009 Condition

Brent Number

West London

Percent

97

London

GB

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

0.7

Certain infectious parasitic diseases

170

1.6

840

1.7

5,050

1.9

15,740

Neoplasms

150

1.4

690

1.4

3,390

1.3

28,410

1.3

Diseases of the blood

40

0.4

160

0.3

860

0.3

3,580

0.2

Endocrine, nutritional & metabolic diseases

250

2.4

1,050

2.2

4,990

1.9

31,000

1.4

4,430

42.8

20,820

43.3

120,820

46.2

947,320

43.4

Diseases of the nervous system

470

4.5

2,590

5.4

14,150

5.4

145,810

6.7

Diseases of the eye and adnexa

120

1.2

500

1.0

2,320

0.9

16,710

0.8 0.4

Mental and behavioural disorders

Diseases of the ear and mastoid process

50

0.5

260

0.5

1,330

0.5

9,290

Diseases of the circulatory system

490

4.7

2,240

4.7

10,770

4.1

104,990

4.8

Diseases of the respiratory system

200

1.9

900

1.9

4,620

1.8

43,940

2.0

Diseases of the digestive system

160

1.5

760

1.6

4,010

1.5

32,280

1.5

Diseases of the skin

60

0.6

270

0.6

1,410

0.5

12,920

0.6

1,750

16.9

7,840

16.3

38,310

14.6

371,150

17.0

Diseases of the genitourinary system

150

1.4

510

1.1

2,300

0.9

14,860

0.7

Congenital malformations, deformations

90

0.9

430

0.9

2,020

0.8

23,900

1.1

Symptoms, signs not elsewhere classified

1,130

10.9

5,270

11.0

29,630

11.3

246,190

11.3

Diseases of the musculoskeletal system

Injury, poisoning and external causes

480

4.6

2,120

4.4

10,810

4.1

104,400

4.8

Other factors influencing healthcare contact

180

1.7

820

1.7

4,510

1.7

29,000

1.3

94 95 96 97

Worklessness defined as residents not in employment or actively seeking work, i.e. the ILO unemployment definition Department for Work and Pensions (July 2008): Mental Health and employment Source: Health Protection Agency, 2010 Source: DWP, November 2009 CLES Consulting

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Figure 46: Male life expectancy, average 2003 to 2007

98

Average life expectancy - age

Figure 47: Female life expectancy, average 2003 to 2007

99

Average life expectancy - age

98 99

Source: ONS, Census 2001; more recent â&#x20AC;&#x201C; accurate â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ward level data will only be available after the 2011 Census Ibid CLES Consulting

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69

Lone Parent Income Support (LPIS) 4,830 residents in Brent claim Lone Parent Income Support (IS), 2.7 per cent of Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s working age population, compared with 1.9 per cent nationally, 2.4 per cent in West London, and 2.6 per cent in London. The proportion of total claimants - those claiming this benefit for two or more years (68.1%) is considerably higher than the national average (58.4%), but similar to the average for London. The highest concentrations of claimants within Brent are in Harlesden (570) and Stonebridge (560), with concentrations also evident in Kilburn (340), Willesden Green (325), and Dudden Hill (290).

Lone Parent claimant rates in Brent decreased between 1999 and 2009 by almost a third (-30.0%), ahead of the national rate (-25.2%), and that of London (-21.2%). Much of this fall occurred from 2007 onwards as illustrated in Figure 49: This was primarily due to changes in welfare provision, requiring single parents to actively look for work when their youngest child was twelve years of age (this is likely to fall further as this age is lowered to seven in 2010 and then to age five by 2012).

Many of these claimants have moved to JSA (an economically active benefit) and are now required to actively seek work. The analysis shows that it is important that job retention for lone parents is addressed, by providing financial incentives to stay in work, developing skills further, increasing access to affordable child care, and persuading employers to be more flexible with part-time work.

Table 18: LPIS claimants by duration, 2009 100 Less than 6 months

6 to 12 months

1 to 2 years

Over 2 years

Number

% of total

Number

% of total

Number

% of total

Number

% of total

GB

93,690

13.5

79,550

11.4

116,450

16.7

405,980

58.4

London

12,940

9.6

11,330

8.4

18,200

13.5

91,870

68.4

West London

2,180

9.4

1,940

8.4

3,080

13.3

15,930

68.9

470

9.7

400

8.3

660

13.7

3,290

68.1

Brent

Table 19: LPIS benefit claimants by age, 2009 101 Total

Under 25

25 to 34 yrs

35 to 44 yrs

45 to 54 yrs

55 to 59 yrs

60 to 64 yrs

Number

% of total

% of total

% of total

% of total

% of total

% of total

GB

695,670

25.1

40.4

27.5

6.6

0.4

0.0

London

134,340

17.5

39.1

33.6

9.4

0.4

0.0

West London

23,130

16.9

38.4

35.1

9.4

0.3

0.0

Brent

4,830

15.1

36.4

36.9

11.0

0.4

0.0

Figure 48: LPIS claimants volume by ward in Brent, 2009

100 101 102

Source: ONS, DWP Benefits, November 2009 Ibid Ibid CLES Consulting

102

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70

Figure 49: LPIS benefit claimants, 1999 to 2009

2.4.9

103

Occupations Over the last decade there has been a structural change in the type of occupations, shifting from non-skilled jobs to managerial and professional occupations. This has resulted in a declining demand for skilled craft workers. Forecasts of occupations across London show that this trend is set to continue for the foreseeable future with growing numbers of professional and associate professional occupations and growth (albeit much slower) in semi and unskilled employment. There will be fewer mid-level skilled jobs available resulting in an increasingly polarised workforce.

The occupational structure of Brent reflects the changing industrial structure of the wider London area, with increasing movement towards knowledge based industries. The current proportion of residents who are managers and senior officials or in professional occupations accounts for over two fifths (45.3%) of Brent’s population, shown in Figure 50: compared with an average of 43.6 per cent in the UK, 49.7 per cent for West London and 53.7 per cent for London.

Despite the growth of London’s knowledge economy, there is still a significant requirement for lower skilled labour in the area. It is notable in Brent that lower skilled occupations including sales and customer service occupations, process, plant and machine operatives, and those in elementary occupations constitute 28.7 per cent of the total number of resident’s jobs, compared with West London (22.8%), London (19.9%) and the UK (25.6%).

103

Source: ONS, DWP Benefits, November 2009 CLES Consulting

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Figure 50: Occupations of residents in employment, 2009 104 11.3 9.2

Elementary Occupations

10.3

UK

13.7

London

6.8

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives

4.6 5.4

West London

6.5

Brent

7.5

Sales and Customer Service Occupations

6.1 7.1 8.5 8.5 7.1 7.2 7.4

Personal Service Occupations

10.6 7.6

Skilled Trades Occupations

8.4 10.0 11.3 11.1 11.6

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations

8.0 14.7

Associate Professional and Technical

18.8 16.0 15.3 13.4 17.1

Professional Occupations

15.1 13.2 15.5 17.8

Manager and Senior Officials

18.6 16.8

0.0

5.0 10.0 15.0 Percentage of all occupations (Residents in Brent)

20.0

2.4.10 Earnings Earnings are a key indicator of the interaction between labour supply and demand in an economy, and the living standards of its employees. High earnings can be an indicator of strong labour demand as well as higher value activities in an economy, whilst low wages could imply either low demand for labour or lower value added activities undertaken by firms within the local economy.

There is strong evidence of a â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;low pay, no payâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; cycle affecting significant numbers of employees across London. Low paid employees are more likely to be out of work in the future; those who reenter the labour market after being unemployed are likely to be in low paid jobs. Low paid individuals therefore are more likely to fall into poverty. If low paid employees tend to move from periods of low paid work to periods of unemployment then we would expect low paid employees to be more likely not to have a lengthy record of continuous full-time employment. This has implications for these individuals, because not only do they get penalised by not receiving earnings when workless, but they are not developing their skills/experience or receiving training; a higher proportion of workless people do not have qualifications compared to employed people.

Low pay also disproportionately affects women and part-time employment in London, people in parttime jobs are around four times as likely to be low paid as those in full-time jobs. Two-fifths (40%) of part-time employees in London and 9 per cent of full-time employees in London are low paid.

Part-time work is disproportionately concentrated in low-level occupations and low paying sectors such as wholesale, retail and food processing. This has serious implications for Brent were part-time work has grown significantly over the last decade and a high proportion of the local workforce are employed in wholesale and retail services, industries that typically have a high proportion of parttime and temporary employment.

Whilst Brent experiences higher re-numeration than the national average, median earning shown in Table 20: remain lower than the West London and London averages, suggesting lower value business activities in the area. In addition, there is a major geographical polarisation in the earnings figures across the borough.

104

Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, 2009 CLES Consulting

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72

Table 20: Full time resident and workplace gross median weekly earnings, 2002 to 2009

Resident earnings

Workplace earnings

105

2002

2009

Change level 2002 to 2009

Percentage change 2002 to 2009

UK

390.9

488.7

97.8

25.0

London

479.9

598.6

118.7

24.7

West London

468.4

571.7

103.3

22.1

Brent

428.4

524.6

96.2

22.5

London

501.1

627.4

126.3

25.2

West London

462.5

582.4

120.0

25.9

Brent

403.1

524.0

120.9

30.0

Figure 51: Brent Residents, mean annual income - London Comparison (£), 2009

Figure 52: Brent Workers, mean annual income - London Comparison (£), 2009

106

107

Figure 53: maps incomes across Brent in 2008, showing how higher incomes (shaded lighter) are concentrated in the north and south of Brent, illustrating the large income disparities between the core and the periphery. There is a £17,000 difference in mean annual income between the wealthiest and poorest wards within Brent. Queen's Park is the wealthiest ward (average resident earnings of £43,672), compared with Stonebridge (£26,755). Average annual earnings in Brent are £27,248 – the third lowest in London; and a fifth (20%) of residents have average incomes under £15,000.

105 106 107

ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2009 Ibid Ibid CLES Consulting

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Figure 53: Mean annual income across Brent, (dark brown=high income) 2008

108

2.4.11 Resident skills and qualifications The analysis of the change in occupation of Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s residents and the picture of the change in London jobs, as reflected in the occupational structure seen earlier, supports the analysis of the Leitch report in terms of the general move towards an increase in higher level skilled jobs and a reduction in mid-level skill occupations. It also supports the need to raise the level of skills of the current workforce to reduce their vulnerability to changing work requirements, and for young people and unemployed people seeking work, to provide them with a greater chance of finding entry level employment in the context of significant competition for available jobs.

The growth in the economy, sectoral and occupational restructuring, and replacement demand will create a huge demand for skills at intermediate and higher level. UK Employers are increasingly demanding higher-level vocational skills at Level 3 and above. Despite an increase of nearly 20,000 graduates in Brent since 2004 (growing faster than the average for West London, London and the UK) the borough still has a lower proportion (34.6%) of residents qualified to NVQ Level 4, compared with London (39.7%).

In addition to graduate qualifications, Table 21: shows that Brent also has a large pool of intermediate skills, critical to raising productivity and knowledge intensity within the economy, with over half of the boroughâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s resident population holding at least an Level 2 qualification.

Table 21: Qualifications of resident working age population, 2008 National Level NVQ4+ (Graduate) NVQ Level 3 Trade Apprenticeships NVQ Level 2 NVQ Level 1 Other qualifications No qualifications

108 109

Brent 65,300 16,700 5,100 16,100 14,100 52900 18400

34.6 8.9 2.7 8.5 7.5 28.0 9.8

West London 359,200 35.8 112,900 11.3 22,800 2.3 106,800 10.7 88,100 8.8 192,100 19.2 120,100 12.0

ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2009 Source: Annual Population Survey, December 2008 CLES Consulting

109

London 2,110,700 39.7 631,000 11.9 86,600 1.6 603,800 11.4 501,400 9.4 758,900 14.3 625,400 11.8

UK 11,835,600 6,142,700 1,621,100 6,375,100 5,333,400 3,453,600 5,012,400

29.8 15.4 4.1 16 13.4 8.7 12.6

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Table 22: Change in the qualifications of resident working age population, 2008 National Level NVQ4+ (Graduate) NVQ Level 3 Trade Apprenticeships NVQ Level 2 NVQ Level 1 Other qualifications No qualifications

Brent 20,200 -4,200 -2,700 0 -800 10,200 -15,500

9.7 -2.6 -1.6 0 -0.7 4.5 -8.9

West London 62,400 4.4 -1,500 -0.8 -15,500 -1.8 7,100 0.2 200 -0.5 13,000 0.2 -8500 -1.6

London 539,200 58,200 -81,600 15,900 -29,000 -13,000 -83,500

110

UK 7.7 0.2 -1.8 -0.6 -1.4 -1.4 -2.6

2,181,500 723,300 -654,600 675,700 24,600 402,100 -712,300

3.8 0.8 -2.0 0.7 -0.9 0.5 -2.8

Whilst there have been significant improvements in qualification and skills performance in recent years (in particular residents gaining basic and level 1 qualifications), the existence of high proportions of the workforce with no qualifications remains a persistent major challenge to raising productivity and economic inclusion within Brent.

Nearly one-in-ten (9.8%) of Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s residents have no formal qualifications, equivalent to over 18,000 residents; and this issue disproportionately affects the unemployed and economically inactive, as well as the workforce aged 50 years and above. There clearly continues to be a significant demand for entry to employment training provision in the borough.

Given that Brent is a very diverse borough, in terms of population, there is also a significant demand for ESOL courses. Of the 13,000 students at the College of North West London, around a third of students are on Basic skills and ESOL courses. Proposed changes to ESOL funding will therefore pose a significant challenge to delivering future skills requirements in the borough.

Interestingly the borough has a significant number of residents classified as holding â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;other and/or internationalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; qualifications, corresponding to over a quarter (28.0%) of resident, much higher than the national average (8.7%), and that for London (14.3%). This is probably due to the successive waves of international migration to the area with many Brent residents holding qualifications that are not currently formally recognised in the UK. A critical issue will be to encourage those with the qualifications to continue in learning, using existing learning as a step on the ladder to other qualifications, as well as ensuring that local employers recognise previous achievements when recruiting for positions.

Another key component of local support in Brent is to continue to increase NVQ level 1 and progression to level 2 qualifications (particularly in a time of funding cuts) within the workforce in order to close the gap between the borough skills levels and the regional and national average; and whilst there has been a growing number of residents with level 2 qualifications in the borough over the last five years, a comparative gap also remains in progression up to levels 3 and 4, shown in Figure 55: These findings highlight the challenges facing Brent, the need to increase workforce skills levels through continued achievement in learning up to level 3 and above.

110

Source: Annual Population Survey, December 2008 CLES Consulting

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Figure 54: Qualifications of the resident population, 2008

111

Figure 55: Qualifications of the resident population, London boroughs 2008

111 112

Source: Annual Population Survey, December 2008 Source: LDA (2010): Destinations 2020 CLES Consulting

112

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76

Education Brent has experienced an improvement in educational performance at both primary and secondary schools, and this has clearly contributed to raising the qualification profile of the borough, feeding through into the future competitiveness of the labour market.

2.5.1

Key Stage 2 (Literacy and numeracy at age 11) The tables below show that individual assessment level data reveal that at Key Stage 2, pupilsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; performance in the Brent is broadly similar to the national average in English, Mathematics and Science. Table 26: shows that data on school performance shows a significant improvement in joint attainment (English and Maths) within Brent over the course of the last five years. However one of the key challenges for schools remains the high levels of children joining in-year admissions without English, reflecting the high levels of transient population within particular neighbourhoods in Brent.

Table 23: Key Stage 2 Percentage of Pupils achieving Level 4 or above in English 113 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

England

79

79

80

81

80

London

79

80

80

81

81

Brent (LA)

78

79

80

80

79

Table 24: Key Stage 2 Percentage of Pupils achieving Level 4 or above in Maths

114

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

England

75

76

77

79

79

London

74

75

76

79

80

Brent (LA)

73

73

75

79

78

Table 25: Key Stage 2 Percentage of Pupils achieving Level 4 or above in Science

115

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

England

87

87

88

88

88

London

85

85

87

87

88

Brent (LA)

80

82

84

86

85

Table 26: Schools where fewer than 55% of pupils achieve level 4 or above in both English and Maths at KS2 116 2005 Total number of schools

Schools <55%

Total number of schools

Schools <55%

England

13,565

2,283

13,533

1,472

London

1,589

304

1,593

140

51

10

51

3

Brent

113 114 115 116

2009

Source: http://www.education.gov.uk/inyourarea/statics/las_lea_304_2.shtml Ibid Ibid Ibid CLES Consulting

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77

Key Stage 4 (14 to 16 years) GCSE and equivalent results Key stage 4 educational attainment has risen significantly over the last five years in Brent. 75 per cent of pupils achieved five or more A* to C grades in the 2009/10 school cohort, similar to the regional (77%) and national averages (76%). When including the number of pupils achieving both Mathematics and English, attainment in Brent significantly exceeds the national and regional average; achievement from Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s children from a BAME background (in particular children from an Indian background), was also higher than the national average. However GCSE performance is not sustained across all communities in the borough, with the data indicating that academic (and subsequently economic) outcomes for children and young people from a Black Caribbean and Black African ethnic background continue to have achievement levels that are below the borough average.

Brent has witnessed a significant reduction in the number of schools where fewer than 30 per cent of pupils achieve 5 or more A* to C grades at GCSE and equivalent; no schools met this criteria in 2009. The positive performance is an encouraging sign for the future health of the labour market; however the attraction and retention of talent will be important for the borough, implying the need to create good local employment opportunities.

Table 27: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A* to C, 2005 to 2010 117 2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

Change 2005/10

England

56

57

60

65

70

76

+20pp

London

55

58

61

65

71

77

+22pp

Brent

57

61

65

69

72

75

+18pp

Table 28: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 percentage of pupils 5+ A* to C including English and Maths 118 2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

Change 2005/10

England

43

44

46

48

51

55

+12pp

London

43

46

48

51

54

57

+14pp

Brent

47

49

51

56

57

60

+13pp

Table 29: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A* to G 119 2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

Change 2005/10

England

89

91

92

93

94

95

+6pp

London

91

91

92

93

94

95

+4pp

Brent

92

92

94

94

95

95

+3pp

Table 30: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A* to C, 2009/10 cohort120 England London Brent

White 75 76 70

Mixed 76 77 77

Asian 79 81 81

Black 74 74 64

Chinese 91 92 100

All Pupils 76 77 75

Table 31: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 percentage of pupils 5+ A* to C inc. English and Maths, 2009/10 cohort 121 England London Brent

117 118 119 120 121

White 55 57 52

Mixed 55 58 61

Asian 58 65 67

Black 49 51 45

Chinese 76 81 100

All Pupils 55 57 60

Source: DfE Statistical First Release 37, Dec 2010 Table 3: http://www.education.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000977/index.shtml Ibid Ibid Ibid Ibid CLES Consulting

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Table 32: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A* to G, 2009/10 cohort 122 England London Brent

White 94 94 92

Mixed 94 94 95

Asian 96 97 97

Black 95 95 93

Chinese 98 99 100

All Pupils 95 95 95

Table 33: Reduction in the number of schools where fewer than 30% of pupils achieve 5 or more A* to C grades at GCSE including English and Maths 123

England London Brent

2005 Total number of schools 3,068 403 14

Schools <30% 781 96 3

2009 Total number of schools 2988 405 12

Table 34: A Level Results - Average point score per candidate

England London Brent

Schools <30% 247 15 0

124

2006

2007

2008

2009

721.5 663.8 658.5

731.2 674.1 665.2

740 681.7 663.4

739.1 691.3 675.0

Change 2006 to 2009 17.6 points 27.5 points 16.5 points

Despite positive improvements in educational outcomes across Brent, and in London relative to with the rest of the UK, disparities in educational attainment still exist across Brent and London shown in the map below. Local neighbourhoods experiencing lower educational performance correspond to areas witnessing high levels of child poverty (analysed later in the LEA), including the neighbourhoods within Harlesden, Church End and Stonebridge.

Figure 56: Spatial distribution of educational attainment in London - children gaining 5 A* to C grades including English and Maths at the end of Key Stage 4 (KS4) %, 2009 125

122 123 124 125

Source: DfE Statistical First Release 37, Dec 2010 Table 3: http://www.education.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000977/index.shtml Source: DfE Statistical First Release: http://www.education.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000963/index.shtml Ibid GLA (2009) CLES Consulting

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79

Child poverty Child poverty has become an increasingly important thematic challenge in policy over recent years.

Areas which experience high concentrations of child poverty are likely to encounter reinforced problems around worklessness in the long term, with a positive correlation between child poverty and deprivation. Adult’s economic and social positions can be associated with factors observed during childhood, suggesting that individual and family characteristics, especially those associated with adverse economic and social child development, are linked with subsequent success or failure in the labour market. London has a lower proportion of employees in part-time work than the UK. This could be one of the reasons for the low employment rate among mothers in London and thus contribute to London’s high child-poverty rate. Thirty-nine per cent of London’s children live in poverty. A combination of other local factors such as barriers to employment, workforce skills, and the costs of childcare also contribute to local levels of deprivation, explored in the following section.

Population data relating to children show a clear annual expected increase in the numbers of each year group up to 16 years of age. Over a third of Brent’s children live in low income households in receipt of council tax benefit. Nearly a third are entitled to free school meals, and the proportion is rising. Nearly a quarter live in social housing. Over a fifth are in single adult households. The majority of children in Brent live in settled, moderately prosperous circumstances often in extended families. These families are often part of close-knit communities which give children a sense of belonging and cultural identity.

Many children and young people attend supplementary schools, Sunday schools or other religious and cultural groups outside their formal schooling. Whilst there is a strong sense of support and belonging, Figure 57: below, illustrates that Brent ranks within the top 10 per cent most deprived in England according to the Child Well-being Index (CWI); and the borough ranks 15th out of 33 London Borough’s on the overall most deprived areas according to the CWI. The number of children who live within households claiming workless benefits, is also considerably higher in Brent (31.1% equating to 19,000 children) compared with the average for West London (25.3%), London (26.2%) and UK (17.8%).126 Within Brent, high concentrations of Child deprivation exist within the south of the borough, in particular within Kensal Green, Harlesden, Church End and Stonebridge.

Figure 57: Child Well-being Index: ranking of deprivation 127

Within the 10% most deprived in England -->

Rank Sore out of 355 districts in England

400

350

300

250

London average 264

200

150

100

50

0

126 127

Source: DWP, May 2008 - note these are experimental statistics from DWP, and should be treated with caution Source: Child Well-being Index, ONS 2008 CLES Consulting

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The cost for families of living in London is very high. House prices and childcare costs mean that parents are at a disadvantage in the competitive Labour market – as workers need to compete for higher paid jobs in order to cover these costs. This has resulted in those with families tending to move out, and results in disproportionately high rates of worklessness for lone parents. This affects the child poverty rate, which is particularly high in Brent as elsewhere within and close to Inner London. This means that parents have substantially worse employment chances than their peers elsewhere in the country.

There are two other factors which disadvantage mothers in the labour market. The first is the greater competition in the labour market for low and mid-skilled workers. This greater competition means that the labour market is less willing to bear the additional costs faced by low-skilled mothers who must pay for childcare. The second issue is the higher cost of childcare in London. While these factors are significant for all mothers, they are clearly of even greater significance in Brent. The risks of persistent poverty for a child are accentuated by a number of factors. These include having a larger number of siblings, living in a one-parent household, and living in a household headed by an adult with low educational attainment.128 Figure 58: Child Poverty, 2008, by Lower Super Output Area 129

Birth cohort studies also highlight the impact of poverty on life chances across the life course and between generations: people who experienced poverty in childhood are more likely to have low incomes and worse employment prospects than those who did not have poor childhoods, whilst children from poor backgrounds are less likely than other children to continue in school after age 16, or to attain educational qualifications.130 Educational attainment lessens the risk of poverty by improving employment opportunities and wage potential.

However, educational attainment amongst children is strongly correlated to parental incomes.

Indeed, the differences between pupils’ GCSE results are larger when comparing pupils in the same ethnic group but of high and low ‘socio-economic status’ than when comparing the difference between ethnic groups. Despite the challenges to raising educational participation and attainment in deprived neighbourhoods, both tables below show that significant progress has been made in London and Brent in raising pupil achievement levels over the last five years, especially amongst those residents who were most likely to experience child poverty (using statistics for receipt of free school meals).

128 129 130

Source: Smith & Middleton (2007) – A review of Poverty Dynamics research in the UK Source: Child Well-being Index, ONS 2008 Ibid CLES Consulting

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Table 35: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 percentage of all pupils with 5+ A* to C by Free School Meal eligibility 131

England London Brent

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

Change 2006/10

FSM

33

36

41

49

58

+25pp

Not FSM

61

63

68

73

78

+17pp

FSM

43

46

50

58

67

+24pp

Not FSM

63

65

69

75

80

+17pp

FSM

45

51

58

61

69

+24pp

Not FSM

67

68

72

75

77

+10pp

Table 36: Achievements at GCSE and equivalent for pupils at the end of Key Stage 4 percentage of pupils with 5+ A*-C including English & Maths, by Free School Meal eligibility 132

England London Brent

2.5.4

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

FSM

20

22

24

27

31

Change 2006/10 +11pp

Not FSM

48

50

52

54

59

+11pp

FSM

28

31

34

38

42

+14pp

Not FSM

51

53

55

59

62

+11pp

FSM

32

35

45

40

49

+17pp

Not FSM

54

55

59

62

63

+9pp

Early years learning Recent evidence clearly sets of the case for investment in early years interventions to address health inequalities in London.133 This shows that well designed and implemented early years programmes can have significant benefits in terms of life-long health, educational attainment, social, emotional and economic wellbeing and reduced involvement in crime that far outweigh their costs.

An individual’s experience in early childhood has a significant and long-lasting impact on their future health and wellbeing. London experiences significant inequalities in health and other life chances.

This is, due to wide variations in the socio-economic circumstances of individuals and their families, lifestyle behaviours and access to effective healthcare and other support services. Children raised in disadvantaged environments are, on average, less likely to succeed in school, in their future economic and social life and are much less likely to grow into healthy adults.

Table 37: shows early-years provision and take-up within Brent, illustrating the number of free parttime early education places taken up by three and four year olds in maintained, private, voluntary and independent providers. Brent has a significant increase in early-years participation, rising by 19.3 per cent over the last 5 years, compared with 16.7 per cent in London and 14.5 per cent nationally.

Despite rising use of early years services, one of the barriers to employment cited by local partners includes the availability and affordability of childcare; alongside benefit traps due to low wages and low levels of affordable housing.134 Whilst there has been a significant rise in early-years provision, achievement across the early years foundation stage has been highly variable over the last five years, reflecting the challenge of delivering children’s services to a rapidly growing and diverse range of residents.

Table 37: Number of free early education places taken up by three and four year olds 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Change 2005 to 2010

England

1,027,970

1,029,705

1,054,800

1,098,090

1,128,790

1,177,235

14.5%

London

163,235

166,825

171,805

177,090

181,455

190,450

16.7%

5,770

5,785

6,110

6,340

6,610

6,885

19.3%

Brent

131 132 133 134 135

135

Source: DfE Statistical First Release 37, Dec 2010 Table 6: http://www.education.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000977/index.shtml Ibid GLA (2010): Early years interventions to address health inequalities in London – the economic case LEA Stakeholder interviews Source: http://www.education.gov.uk/inyourarea/statics/las_lea_304_2.shtml CLES Consulting

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Table 38: Achievement of at least 78 points across the Early Years Foundation Stage with at least 6 in each of the scales in Personal, Social and Emotional Development and Communication, Language and Literacy 136 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Change 2005 to 2010

England

48

45

46

49

52

56

+8% points

London

43

39

43

46

50

55

+12% points

Brent

46

37

29

41

45

43

-3% points

Table 39: shows the percentage gap in achievement between the lowest 20 per cent of achieving children in a local authority (mean score), and the score of the median child in the same authority expressed as a percentage of the same median score. Brent has continued to significantly reduce the gap in attainment, in line with national performance, however the gap in Brent (35.2%) still exceeds the average for London (33.6%) and the national average (32.7%).

Table 39: Narrowing the gap between the lowest achieving 20% in the Early Years Foundation Stage Profile and the rest 137

2.6

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Change 2005 to 2010

England

38.3

37.2

35.6

33.9

32.7

-5.6% points

London

40.6

39

36.8

35.1

33.6

-7% points

Brent

40.7

39.5

39.3

39.6

35.2

-5.5% points

Engaging children and young people in learning and development Every Child Matters identifies the five outcomes that are of the highest importance to all children and young people, regardless of their individual circumstances, these are:

Be healthy.

Stay safe.

Enjoy and achieve.

Make a positive contribution.

Achieve economic well-being.

Education and cultural activities play a significant role in contributing to these outcomes through employment, education, entertainment, sports and leisure activities and a range of specific projects working with young people within Brent. Engaging a person in both cultural and learning activity when they are young offers that individual the opportunity to begin a lifelong journey of cultural appreciation and development.

Looked after young people and young people with disabilities have less opportunity to participate and should be a focus for developing life-long learning participation. Young people are a corporate objective and priority for Brent. The Children and Young Peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Plan (CYPP) is the strategic document setting out the vision and local priorities for children and young people in the borough. A long-term priority for partners is addressing the participation of young people in both training and the labour market.

Migration to London is primarily among young people while net migration of over-35 year olds has been away from the capital, resulting in a disproportionately young workforce. Younger workers tend to compete more for entry-level job opportunities, reducing the chances for groups at the margins of the labour market.

136 137

Ibid Ibid CLES Consulting

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Whilst school staying on age is extending, and staying on rates in Brent remain comparatively high (within the London context), future support must continue build on local successes in addressing the number of young people not in employment, education or training (NEET) which stood at 4.6 per cent in Brent during 2009 (equating to 310 residents), lower than the average for London (5.0%),138 and lower than any other borough in West London with the exception of Harrow. Around four-fifths (80%) of the NEET group in Brent are made up of young people whose educational achievement is at/or below Level 1 (i.e. no formal qualifications).

Increasing the take-up of further education and apprenticeships, and growing the local employment offer will have significant returns to both local residents and employers across Brent in the longerterm. The financial impact of training is well documented. A Level 3 advanced apprentice will generate an additional lifetime benefit to themselves and their employer of £105,000 compared to someone who does not gain an Apprenticeship. The level 2 additional benefit is £73,000. This represents a gain of £16 for every £1 of taxpayers’ money.139 It is therefore important to continue to engage local employers in business development and training, to help ensure that schools, colleges and local training providers work together with employers to enable a better quality work experience that prepares young people in Brent for the future labour market.140 Table 40: Proportion of 16 to 18 year olds who are classified as NEET

141

16 to 18 year olds NEET Estimated number

Percentage

% whose present activity is not known

12,090

5.8%

5.0%

Brent

310

4.6%

5.2%

Ealing

340

5.4%

4.4%

Hammersmith & Fulham

190

6.0%

5.3%

Harrow

190

3.2%

3.2%

London

138 139 140 141

Hillingdon

450

5.3%

3.0%

Hounslow

350

5.5%

4.5%

Source: DCFS (2010): Analysis Team statistics - excluding those not in contact/present activity unknown McIntosh S. (2007): Cost-Benefit Analysis of Apprenticeships and Other Vocational Qualifications, University of Sheffield HMG have announced £150m to fund 50,000 new apprenticeship places, focused on small to medium enterprises Source: Connexions (2009): NEET statistics CLES Consulting

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Summary findings Brent has experienced significant levels of migration…

Brent has experienced significant levels of inward migration, the deprived neighbourhoods in the south of the borough experience significant levels of churn and population transience. High rates of NiNo registrations show that the borough is a destination for people arriving in the UK who may choose to locate first in Brent because of a combination of cultural associations or the availability of comparatively cheap accommodation, it is not known what proportion settle in the borough.

Brent’s ethnic diversity presents both challenges and opportunities for the borough…

Brent is one of the most diverse boroughs in the country, with large Indian, Pakistani, and Black (Caribbean and African) communities, with the borough being home to many refugees, asylum seekers, and economic migrants. On one hand this can provide opportunities to develop diverse local products and services - adding to the appeal of Brent as a centre for different cultural attractions - on the other it can present challenges around inclusion and access to services.

Brent’s employment rate is close to the London average but obscures significant variation between male and female residents and between different ethnic groups…

Employment rate is close to the London average. However, as with many London boroughs female employment rates are low, and there is also significant variation between ethnic groups in Brent.

Worklessness is concentrated in the south of Brent and amongst particular groups…

Worklessness is concentrated in certain geographical locations in the borough, and this corresponds with other measures of deprivation. The relative position of the borough in terms of employment deprivation is worsening. Health inequality is high in the borough, and the rate of people claiming incapacity benefit for mental illness is significantly worse than the national average. There are particular barriers to employment for particular groups of workless individuals including ethnic minorities, those with health and mental health needs, and women.

Levels of child poverty are high…

The cost of childcare is a significant barrier to employment and impacts on levels parental unemployment. A fifth of dependent children were living in one parent families in Brent, and more than a third of the borough’s children live in poverty. Brent ranks within the top 10 per cent most deprived in England in the Child Well-being Index, and almost a third of children live in households that are claiming workless benefits, much higher than the average for both London and the UK. National evidence suggests that the key factors for areas improving (in terms of reducing deprivation) are the creation of higher level skills in the resident population; and ensuring access to entry level jobs.

Resident and workplace earnings are low suggesting a lower skilled labour force and a lower value business base…

Average weekly workplace earnings in Brent are almost identical to that of residents earnings, which suggests that the district is not a net importer of higher remunerated occupations, rather that those commuting are commuting out of the borough to similarly low paid occupations. Workplace earnings in Brent are lower than the West London and London averages, suggesting a lower value business base predominating in the area.

Despite growth in professional and managerial roles a significant proportion of Brent’s residents remain employed in low skilled occupations…

The proportion of residents who are managers and senior officials or in professional occupations accounts for over two fifths of Brent’s population, below the London average. Almost a third of residents are employed in low skilled occupations against a London average of around a fifth. This is further reflected in the low skills base of local residents. Despite an increase of nearly 20,000 graduates in Brent since 2004 the borough still has a lower proportion of residents qualified to NVQ Level 4, compared with the London average.

While there have been significant improvements in young people’s educational attainment, too many residents still have no qualifications…

There have been significant improvements in educational attainment of young people in the last five years, however the existence of high proportions of the workforce with no qualifications remains a persistent major challenge to raising productivity and economic inclusion within Brent. Nearly onein-ten of Brent’s residents have no formal qualifications, equivalent to over 18,000 residents.

Disparities in educational performance reflect and reinforce the geography of social segregation.

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Context and priorities With less council resources available to tackle barriers and support residents to access employment opportunities, as well as less resource to tackle deprivation via area focused regeneration, Brent will need to find new ways of operating to ensure that the needs of its diverse communities are met within the new welfare regime, and as the Work Programme and assessment of stock incapacity benefit claimants are introduced. Similarly, with less direct levers to influence the behaviour of schools and colleges, Brent will have to find new ways of working with providers to influence future learning provision.

Welfare Reform Welfare reform is a key priority for the new government. A new single Work Programme will be introduced in Summer 2011 offering targeted, personalised help. Underlying reform is the need to make work pay for more people. The Work Programme Prospectus has emphasised the importance of building appropriate delivery partnerships and the role of the voluntary sector in tackling worklessness. Prime contracts will be typically be around £10m and £50m in value with the intention that smaller companies and "consortia" compete with each other for sub-contracts. The move to more challenging outcome based payments will mean that only large organisations with deep pockets will be able to shoulder the risk of becoming a prime contractor. There will be other measures provided under the “Get Britain Working” banner for people who have been out of work for shorter periods including support for self-employment, volunteering, and increased numbers of work placements and apprenticeships.

As the elements of the government’s new approach to welfare provision are introduced, Brent will need to find new ways of working in order to ensure that the needs of their residents are met. The single Work Programme will offer targeted, personalised help through a number of Prime Contractors and a range of sub-contracted local providers. At the same time the role of Jobcentre Plus will become more streamlined and flexible, and include management of the New Enterprise Allowance142 – a move to bridge the gap between unemployment and work by offering the jobless cash payments linked to the value of their benefits as they seek to set up a business. At the same time the Government is pledging to work with the voluntary sector to set up business mentoring back-up for those taking advantage of the scheme, while also clearing access to loan finance, worth up to £1,000, to be used for the purchase of initial equipment.

Skills Policy School, colleges and other training providers are being given more freedom and flexibility in planning their provision. However, adult further education will experience significant funding cuts over the coming years, and a consequence of this is that further education and skills providers and Colleges must change the way they do business. The recently published national Skills Strategy143 emphasises an increasing need to create joint enterprises between learning providers, employers and individuals as well as strengthening the relationships between colleges, local authorities, charities, voluntary organisations and social enterprises. Colleges must drive to become more efficient and effective with a focus on quality. Colleges will be incentivised to deliver the outcomes that their customers want. Both individuals and employers will be expected to make a greater financial contribution to learning.

In relation to young peoples’ education, the role of local government in skills planning has been removed. Schools are to have more autonomy, money will no longer be ring fenced with schools free to make their own decisions about how to spend their budgets. An education bill is set to deregulate the system, freeing schools from the statutory duty to work with children’s services professionals in children’s trusts. Councils instead will act as “champions of social justice”, with a strategic function, overseeing admissions, special educational needs and school improvement. Local authorities are also expected to play a role in ensuring that the system responds to the needs of the economy and community, and to use labour market intelligence to “nudge”144 provision in the right direction if they perceive market failure. With less direct levers over skills planning, Brent will need to extend its influencing role into the skills arena. This could involve developing relationships with the business community to facilitate collection of information on employer demand, using this information to work with providers to generate a consensus around priorities for now and into the future; and to help shape and support employment growth.

142

New Enterprise Allowance: http://www.dwp.gov.uk/adviser/updates/new-enterprise-allowance/ BIS (2010): Skills for Sustainable Growth 144 Nudge: A focus for Government’s Office for Civil Society and the Behavioural Insights Team. Nudge is an approach that suggests ways in which society can do the right thing, without being prescriptive about what is permissible 143

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Suggested Priorities Suggested priorities emerging from the analysis are:

145

Engaging with the Work Programme either through delivery or influencing commissioning, to ensure that the needs of the Boroughâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s diverse communities are met;

Working closely with Jobcentre Plus to identify priority groups and to help support residents into work through pre-referral to the Work Programme;

ensuring that Brent residents and businesses benefit directly from regeneration of the borough and major projects through promoting links to employment and supply contract opportunities (e.g. through Project Value Added clauses);

exploring ways to work with GP consortia and Work Programme contractors to support both the health and mental health needs of claimants during the transition from incapacity benefit;

continuing to improve educational participation and achievement in schools to ensure that Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s young people have the right skills to compete in an increasingly competitive London labour market;

working with colleges and through the London Skills and Employment Board to enhance skills provision in Brent, including increasing the take up of apprenticeships and other vocational opportunities;

ensuring that there is adequate provision of ESOL linked to vocational outcomes, and minimising the impact of cuts in provision;

supporting residents through the transition to the Universal Credit, helping residents and families facing multiple changes in benefit status / income levels by providing welfare rights advice, in partnership with mainstream government organisations (e.g. JobCentre+); and local organisations (e.g. Brent Citizens Advice Bureau, and Brent Housing Partnership);

promote a living wage in Brent to local employers, and lobby Government to ensure the income disregard145 does not disadvantage local residents, ensuring that they are substantially wealthier in work.

DWP (2010): HMG White Paper - Universal Credit: welfare that works CLES Consulting

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BUSINESS PERFORMANCE

3.1

Introduction

87

This section of the LEA looks at Brent’s performance in terms of business performance. This is vital in understanding how the borough has been adapting to the profound structural changes that have taken place over recent decades and how robust its economy is in relation to the current global economic landscape.

By looking in depth at areas such as the structure and performance of the business base, entrepreneurship and the knowledge economy, the aim is to better understand Brent’s future potential. Looking at questions such as: What sectors are the most important going forward? What kind of shape are they in? How will business type influence the future direction and prosperity of the Brent economy?

Brent has experienced an expansion of its business base that has been close to the growth rate across London as a whole. This has been driven by growth in micro-enterprise, however at the same time the area has seen a contraction in the number of local jobs and a loss of large local employers. There have been clear structural changes across key economic sectors, which should be of interest to policy makers. Looking ahead at future competitiveness, the all important knowledge economy looks to be strengthening in terms of output and employment, but there are still many of challenges that need to be met.

3.2

Background: Drivers of business development and enterprise Enterprise has a critical role to play in a dynamic and flexible economy. New enterprises drive productivity growth by applying competitive pressures in the market place, bringing forward new products, and raising the incentives for firms to invest, innovate and seek efficiency and quality improvements. Enterprise plays a role by generating employment and contributing to economic regeneration and social cohesion. It also stimulates the process of “churn”, where new firms in the market drive out inefficient firms that are unable to compete resulting in the average productivity level of the economy increasing. Research146 suggests that up to 50% of a locations economic growth is derived solely from this firm-level churn in which the process of entry, exit and changing market shares increases economic growth. Reviews of UK manufacturing firms during the 1980s and 1990s show that 80 to 90 per cent of TFP (total factor productivity) growth comes from entry and exit of establishments, with 30 per cent of TFP growth coming from highly productive new firms, and 50 per cent coming from the exit of the least productive firms.147 HM Government’s Enterprise Strategy identified five key enablers of enterprise:

culture of enterprise; knowledge and skills; access to finance; business innovation; regulatory framework.

Important drivers to an enterprising economy are individuals’ attitudes to and experience of enterprise. A positive enterprise culture increases willingness to develop entrepreneurial skills and impacts positively on the actual development of such skills. A positive culture also influences business innovation by providing the environment where people want to take risks and take advantage of potentially viable business opportunities.

Knowledge and skills are important for creating entrepreneurial ambition and driving entrepreneurial performance. Entrepreneurs need to possess a personal skill set that includes the management, financial, business and communications skills required to identify opportunities and succeed. Access to finance has also been highlighted as an enabler of enterprise; the creation, survival and growth of a business can depend on the availability and accessibility of finance. Evidence from a number of national business surveys has highlighted the negative impact that the current recession has had on the ability of firms to access finance. The ability of banks to lend has been greatly reduced since the recession, and this has had an impact upon the cost of many types of finance, and therefore firms’ investment and growth decisions.

146 147

Ahn cited in Robinson, C. Et al (2006): Business start-ups, closures and economic churn - A review of the literature Disney et al (2003): Restructuring and productivity growth in UK manufacturing CLES Consulting

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Business innovation is an enabler of enterprise and is a key motivation for many entrepreneurs.

Innovative businesses are more likely to achieve growth, and businesses which have experienced recent growth are more likely to introduce new or improved products, and services or new ways of working. The regulatory framework can impact on market outcomes by influencing the decisions of firms and the way markets operate. Regulation has implications for the availability of business opportunities, the costs of pursuing these opportunities and the returns from doing so.

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) creates an index of early stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA).148 It measures the characteristics of entrepreneurial individuals and types of entities they establish. At the regional level TEA in London is consistently higher than the UK average. Twofifths of entrepreneurs surveyed in London said they also know someone who has set up their own business in the last 24 months, almost twice the national average (23%).149 GEM also provides an indication of early stage entrepreneurial activity by ethnicity within London.150 The results from the survey show TEA is much higher in London than the national average, and that entrepreneurial activity (attitudes to entrepreneurship) is significantly higher in recent inward migrants compared with long-term residents. However entrepreneurial activity by women and older residents (55+) was much lower across the UK (including London), i.e. compared with the average for both males and 25 to 54 year olds.

3.2.1

Economic output When examining an economy in overall terms it is useful to gauge initially both its size and performance. London’s total economic output (GVA) in 2008 stood at £245bn accounting for 20 per cent of the UK’s output figure.151 In the same year Brent’s economy generated an estimated £4.4 billion GVA output, representing 16 per cent of West London’s economy and 2 per cent of the London total. Growth in GVA output in Brent was on average 1.4 per cent – per annum over the previous five years, slower than the average for London (3.3%pa) and the UK (2.4%pa).152

3.2.2

Size profile of businesses Brent has an estimated total of 12,000 workplaces; accounting for a fifth of workplaces in West London and nearly one-in-twenty workplaces in London. As shown in Table 41: nine-out-of-ten are micro enterprises (with less than 10 employees); higher than the average for West London, London and nationally. No FTSE100 businesses are currently headquartered within Brent; reflecting the preference for large firms and international HQs (particularly in financial and business services) to locate within the CAZ. Table 41: Number of workplaces by size of business, 2008

153

Micro

Small

Medium-sized

Large

1 to 10

11 to 49

50 to 199

200+

Workplaces

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

GB

2,078,698

85.0

282,058

11.5

69,286

2.8

15,973

0.7

England

1,844,371

85.3

243,010

11.2

60,096

2.8

13,828

0.6

London

350,969

87.5

37,504

9.3

10,045

2.5

2,691

0.7

West London

61,011

88.3

5,957

8.6

1,673

2.4

467

0.7

Brent

10,737

89.8

928

7.8

241

2.0

57

0.5

As shown in Table 42: micro-sized businesses (1 to 10 employees) experienced the largest growth in Brent, higher than the national average and the average for London over the last five years. The borough also experienced a significant decline in the number of large firms, falling by 6.6. per cent, and a decrease in the number of small firms (11 to 49 employees) falling by 6.5 per cent between 2003 and 2008. The loss of large firms represents a strategic issue for Brent, in terms of land-use changes, but also as large businesses tend to provide leadership in the business community and drive quality and innovation in their local supply chains. Spin-out companies are also more likely to emerge from large firms and higher proportions of training tend to be delivered by large businesses.

148 149 150 151 152 153

Proportion of residents considering starting up a business Source: GEM UK (2009) Perceptions of entrepreneurship among non-entrepreneurially active individuals in the UK regions, 2009 Source: GEM (2008): London report Source: Oxford Economics (2005 price base) Ibid Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 CLES Consulting

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Table 42: Change in number of workplaces by size of business, 2003 to 2008 Workplaces

Micro

Small

Medium-sized

Large

1 to 10

11 to 49

50 to 199

200+

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

GB

235,783

12.8

-3,427

-1.2

1,211

1.8

674

4.4

England

210,489

12.9

-2,960

-1.2

996

1.7

538

4.0

London

34,964

11.1

416

1.1

74

0.7

62

2.4

West London

6,335

11.6

30

0.5

-62

-3.6

1

0.2

Brent

1,091

11.3

-65

-6.5

1

0.4

-4

-6.6

3.2.3

Who works where? Employee distribution by size of business There are an estimated 94,000 employees in Brent.155 Whilst the total number of employees has fallen within Brent during the last decade, this reflects job losses from large employers within manufacturing, wholesale and retailing. Recent trends suggest a growth in micro-sized businesses (i.e. with less than 10 employees). Whilst less than 1 per cent of Brent’s businesses have more than 200 employees, Table 43: shows that almost a third (29.0%) of employees in Brent are likely to be employed in these workplaces. Over two-fifths (44.6%) of Brent’s employment is in Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs), higher than the London average (42.1%), but just behind the national average (47.4%).

Table 43: Number of employees by size of business, 2008

Employees

156

Micro

Small

Medium-sized

Large

1 to 10

11 to 49

50 to 199

200+

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

GB

5,573,871

21.0

6,298,758

23.8

6,258,522

England

4,875,080

21.3

5,431,129

23.7

5,423,957

23.6

8,362,454

31.6

23.7

7,199,696

31.4

London

842,467

20.2

829,346

19.9

926,102

22.2

1,570,009

37.7

West London

141,619

20.2

132,747

18.9

157,285

22.4

269,261

38.4

Brent

24,739

26.3

19,826

21.1

22,123

23.5

27,282

29.0

However, as Table 44: illustrates, the biggest shift in employee distribution in Brent has been in enterprises with 200 or more employees. The number of employees within large businesses declined by 16.8 per cent between 2003 and 2008, faster than the regional and national averages.

This represents a continued trend, starting in the 1990’s of larger firms (mostly from the manufacturing sector) leaving the borough – a likely result of continued industrial restructuring within the UK economy. Despite changes to the number of large employers the number of people working in dynamic micro-sized businesses (with less than 10 employees) actually grew faster in Brent (5.1%) than the London average (4.8%) over the last five years.

Table 44: Change in number of employees by size of business, 2003 to 2008 Employees

154 155 156 157

157

Micro

Small

Medium-sized

Large

1 to 10

11 to 49

50 to 199

200+

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

GB

327,763

6.2

-95,610

-1.5

105,066

1.7

603,551

7.8

England

290,230

6.3

-86,179

-1.6

90,898

1.7

472,156

7.0

London

38,963

4.8

5,121

0.6

15,588

1.7

180,357

13.0

West London

6,882

5.1

2,155

1.7

-3,564

-2.2

17,100

6.8

Brent

1,191

5.1

-1,430

-6.7

183

0.8

-5,520

-16.8

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 Excluding an additional 10,000 who are self-employed Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 Ibid CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

90

Whilst entrepreneurial activity in micro and SME firms is still important for providing local employment opportunities and new innovation, recent studies still stress the importance of attracting and retaining large employers, and their importance to local economic â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;spill-oversâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; within local and regional economies. 158 159 A key question is whether it is realistic for Brent to attract large inward investment, given the losses in both large employers and employment within large workplaces over the last decade; and whether stakeholders can support/retain large employers in the borough. The most important factors for any inward investor is access to a large pool of local skilled labour that continues to experience improving educational and vocational attainment.

National research160 suggests that continued improvements to educational attainment and workforce development is a much better inducement to potential businesses looking for UK locations than other subsidies.

3.2.4

Enterprise formation: business start-ups Entrepreneurship may be defined as the willingness and ability to seize new business opportunities.

Clearly, starting and running a business successfully and the growth of indigenous businesses are two of the most important ways in which new business opportunities can be exploited and in which entrepreneurship is therefore demonstrated. Data on business start-ups and closures and business survival rates are often used to benchmark local economies with respect to their performance in starting up and running businesses. For example, start-up and closure rates show the general level of entrepreneurial activity in one area in comparison to another area. In addition, the difference between start-up and closure rates gives us an idea about the relative successes of business starting, as do business survival rates. Studies show that 23 per cent of new businesses create 71 per cent of new employment, with businesses in hi-tech sectors having the greatest capacity for new job creation.161 In addition to the direct employment they bring, new businesses also help bring innovation and can have a beneficial effect through enhancing competition: helping improve efficiency.

In terms of business growth and enterprise, there are two key indicators; the business VAT registration rate; and the proportion of small businesses showing employment growth. The number of new VAT registrations (in relation to the adult population) is one typical way of measuring local entrepreneurship.162 It is important to note that the following statistics only give an indication as to the general level of entrepreneurship in an area. They do not give an exact indication as to the causes underlying this level of entrepreneurship. There will remain differences in the willingness of people to start businesses in the area (underpinned by such motivational factors as personal need i.e. is working for someone else a better option?); or indeed the ability of people to start a business (relating to their skills, knowledge, experience, exposure to role models etc.). Entrepreneurship is also affected by the levels and quality of finance, business support and quality of premises.

Data taken from the government Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) shows that Brent has a total of 12,000 business units registered for PAYE and/or VAT in 2007/08. Of these, there were just under 10,000 VAT registrations, equating to over 420 enterprises per 10,000 residents163; lower than the West London (442) and London average (508). Table 45: shows that the number of new VAT registrations within Brent (58 per 10,000 residents), this is below the West London average (64), and substantially behind the average for London (68).

Table 45: New VAT registrations per 10,000 residents, 1997 to 2007 1997

Registrations 2007 1997 vs 2007

1997

De-registrations 2007 1997 vs 2007

UK

39

42

3

30

30

0

London

63

68

5

44

45

1

West London

55

64

9

39

41

2

Brent

59

58

-1

40

39

-1

158

Crone, M. And Roper, S. (2011): Local Learning and the Supply Chain; Regional Studies, 35, 6, 535-548

159

ECORYS (2004): A Practical Guide to Cluster Development: A report to the DTI and RDAs

160

Source: MIER Growing Inward and Indigenous Investment

161

Tether B.S. and Massini S. (2004); Employment Creation in Small Technological Innovators; CRIC, the University of Manchester

162

Not all businesses are VAT registered; however is still a useful guide to local entrepreneurship In addition, there are many more unregistered enterprises, represented through the activities of Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s self-employed

163

Residents of working age, i.e. 16 years old to retirement age CLES Consulting

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Figure 59: illustrates the levels of change in VAT registrations for the period 1997 to 2007164, showing that whilst Brent has continued to outperform the national average, new registration rates have remained similar to the West London average, but behind the London average. Figure 60: shows the change in business registrations by sector in Brent illustrating a broad increase in the number of business service sector and construction companies. Conversely there has been a fall in the number of manufacturing registrations, reflecting continued restructuring in the local economy.

Figure 59: VAT registrations per 10,000 residents, 1997 to 2007

165

70 London

West London

Brent

UK

VAT registrations per 10,000 residents

65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Figure 60: Net change in number of VAT registrations by sector, 1997 to 2007

166

Education; Health and social work UK

Public administration; Other community services

London West London

Real estate, renting and business activities

Brent Financial intermediation

Transport, storage and communication

Hotels and restaurants

Wholesale, retail and repairs

Construction

Manufacturing

Mining and quarrying; Electricity, gas and water supply -60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Percentage change in number of VAT registrations

164 165 166

Note: whilst figures are available for 2008, the only consistent time series is available covers the period 1997 to 2007 presented here ONS VAT Registrations, 2009 Ibid CLES Consulting

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3.2.5

92

Enterprise formation: growth In order to assess the strength of the small business sector, metrics such as the proportion of small VAT and/or PAYE registered businesses (firms with less than 50 employees) showing year-on-year employment growth can be used as a proxy for enterprise activity. Table 46: shows data167 illustrating that over one-in-ten (13.4%) of small firms showed year-on-year employment growth in 2008, higher than the West London average (13.1%), and similar to the London average (13.6%).

Table 46: VAT/PAYE registered businesses employment growth, 2003 to 2008 168

3.2.6

(<50

employees)

with

year-on-year

2003

2008

Percentage point change 2003 vs 2008

England

10.6

14.2

3.6

London

10.1

13.6

2.5

West London

9.6

13.1

3.5

Brent

9.6

13.4

3.8

Enterprise formation: self-employment Table 47: shows the rate of self-employment within the working age population of Brent (14.4%), which is significantly higher than the London (10.9%) and national (9.0%) averages, reflecting recent growth in self-employment within Brent during 2008 and 2009. In common with London and GB - levels of self-employment are higher among men compared to women. Just 7.4% of women in work in the borough are self-employed, compared with 21.2 of males.

Table 47: Residents that are self-employed, 2005 to 2010 169 London

UK

Number

Brent Percent

Number

West London Percent

Percent

Percent

% of working age who are employees

100,300

52.9

573,700

57.1

56.7

60.7

% of working age who are self employed

27,200

14.4

111,700

11.1

10.9

9.0

% of working age males who are employees

50,200

52.5

298,500

58.7

59.4

61.8

% of working age males who are self employed

20,300

21.2

78,700

15.5

15.0

12.9

% of working age females who are employees

50,100

53.3

275,200

55.4

53.9

59.7

% of working age females who are self employed

7,000

7.4

33,000

6.6

6.7

5.2

Total for working age population

Males

Females

167 168 169

Source: NI data showing year on year growth in small enterprises, data only available for the period 2003 to 2008 Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey Ibid CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

3.2.7

93

Enterprise stock: business density High business density is an indicator of the strength of a local economy; more businesses mean more opportunities for supply chain links and collaboration. Where firms are in competition, it can help to drive productivity growth. Studies have shown that business and employment density (enterprises per head of population) is associated with rising levels of economic productivity, business dynamism and growth.170 Table 48: shows that business density is relatively high in Brent (420 businesses per 10,000 residents) compared to the national average (402), but lags behind the West London (442) and London average (508). Figure 61: shows the changes to the stock of VAT registered businesses during the last decade. Brent has witnessed a significant net increase in local Construction firms (as has West London) linked to extensive development across London, in the last decade.

However the borough average masks the concentrations of businesses within the borough, with highest business density in Alperton (Ealing Road), Tokyngton (North Circular Road and Wembley) and Stonebridge (part of Park Royal and includes Brent Park and St Raphael's Estate.

Table 48: VAT stock of registered businesses per 10,000 residents, 1997 to 2007

171

1997

2007

Percentage change 1997 vs 2007

UK

354

402

48.0

London

431

508

77.0

West London

368

442

73.4

Brent

370

420

50.0

Figure 61: VAT stock of registered businesses per 10,000 residents, 1997 to 2007

172

Education; Health and social work UK

Public administration; Other community services

London West London

Real estate, renting and business activities

Brent Financial intermediation

Transport, storage and communication

Hotels and restaurants

Wholesale, retail and repairs

Construction

Manufacturing

Mining and quarrying; Electricity, gas and water supply -800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Percentage change in number of VAT stock

170 171 172

Ciccone, C. and Hall, R. (1996): Productivity and the Density of Economic Activity Source: ONS, VAT registrations/de-registrations, 1997 to 2007 latest time-series available ONS VAT Registrations, 2009 CLES Consulting

1,000

1,200

1,400

Brent Local Economic Assessment

3.2.8

94

Enterprise stock by industry sector: Results from the IDBR Table 49: shows data from the government Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR). Brent has a total of 12,000 business units registered for PAYE and/or VAT in 2008. Over a quarter (25.4%) of enterprises in Brent are from the business services sector; just over a fifth are from the wholesaling and retailing sector (22.1%); just over a tenth (11.4%) were from construction; and a tenth (10.7%) from telecommunications. The proportion of businesses in Brent in the wholesale and retail sector is significantly higher than the London average reflecting the importance of the sector within West London; illustrated in sector profiles detailed later in the assessment. The proportion of businesses in both financial and business services sectors is similar to the national average, but is significantly behind the average for London â&#x20AC;&#x201C; with key concentrations in the Central Activity Zone and the City of London.

Table 49: VAT stock of registered businesses per 10,000 residents, March 2009 Brent

Industrial Class SIC2007 Primary industries Food, drinks & tobacco Textiles and clothing Engineering Other manufacturing Construction Hotels and catering Transport Wholesale and retail Telecommunications (ICT) Financial Services Business services Public administration Education Health Other personal (public) services Total - Sub-total Manufacturing - Sub-total Construction - Sub-total Private Services - Sub-total Public Services

West London

London

173

England

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

20 50 55 150 270 1,375 700 335 2,660 1,290 245 3,055 90 280 585 875 12,035 525 1,375 9,160 955

0.2 0.4 0.5 1.2 2.2 11.4 5.8 2.8 22.1 10.7 2.0 25.4 0.7 2.3 4.9 7.3 100.0 4.4 11.4 76.1 7.9

235 230 210 880 1,305 6,900 4,065 2,680 13,500 8,095 1,470 19,820 405 1,410 2,970 5,335 69,510 2,625 6,900 54,965 4,785

0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.9 9.9 5.8 3.9 19.4 11.6 2.1 28.5 0.6 2.0 4.3 7.7 100.0 3.8 9.9 79.1 6.9

1,555 925 1,775 3,700 7,280 34,500 25,535 9,400 66,710 41,575 14,610 131,050 2,425 8,040 18,160 34,205 401,445 13,680 34,500 323,085 28,625

0.4 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 8.6 6.4 2.3 16.6 10.4 3.6 32.6 0.6 2.0 4.5 8.5 100.0 3.4 8.6 80.5 7.1

104,220 7,590 8,220 51,460 59,345 253,740 146,475 73,190 422,995 145,060 58,350 557,075 19,765 54,435 114,180 161,455 2,237,555 126,615 253,740 1,564,600 188,380

4.7 0.3 0.4 2.3 2.7 11.3 6.5 3.3 18.9 6.5 2.6 24.9 0.9 2.4 5.1 7.2 100.0 5.7 11.3 69.9 8.4

The data also illustrates the continuing importance of manufacturing to Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy.174 Manufacturing accounts for 4.4 per cent of all businesses, with particular clusters of food manufacturing and textile manufacturing within the borough, illustrated later in the assessment.

3.2.9

Enterprise survival: measuring resilience Table 50: outlines the 1, 2 and 4 year survival rates for VAT-registered businesses in Brent and illustrates that business survival rates are lower than the London and UK averages. The proportion of businesses surviving after two years in Brent (76%) is lower than the London (78%) and national (82%) average. The four year survival rate in Brent (50%) lags significantly behind the national average (61%) and also behind the London average (56%); and survival rates have varied significantly over the last decade, shown in Figure 62: suggesting the case for further support to help local businesses become more resilient.

Table 50: Change in stock of VAT registrations per 10,000 residents, 1997 to 2007 Area

173 174 175

175

Brent

London

England

% of Businesses operating after 1 year (started 2005)

89

91

92

% of Businesses operating after 2 years (started 2004)

76

78

82

% of Businesses operating after 4 years (started 2000)

50

56

61

IDBR March 2009 Manufacturing contributes significantly to local employment and economic output, explored in detail later in the assessment Source: ONS, vat registrations/de-registrations, 1997 to 2007 latest time-series available CLES Consulting

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Figure 62: Two year business survival rates, 1995 to 2003 176

3.2.10 Enterprise and the informal economy A considerable number of people across Europe are engaged in the informal economy. The term ‘informal economy’ is widely used but it is understood differently. Thus, the estimates on the importance of informal economic activities vary based on its definition. However, regardless of its understanding, policy makers agree that informal economic activities are important to local, regional and national economies in both industrialised and developing countries. Informal work involves the paid production and sale of goods or services which are unregistered by, or hidden from the state for tax, benefit and/or labour law purposes, but are legal in all other respects.

Research shows that informal paid work can have a positive role in peoples’ lives.177 The income from informal work can often be used to complement income that keeps them away from absolute poverty. In addition, the socialisation experienced while working may contribute to develop people’s confidence and building social capital. Lastly, informal work may also be a factor in the acquisition of skills that could be used within formal employment.

Studies within Brent suggests that an estimated one-in-ten (13%) of survey respondents in some of the borough’s most deprived wards been involved in the informal economy over the last year.178 Four-fifths (82%) of these said they had earned less than £300 the previous week from their informal economic activity; half (50%) were working in the following occupations: catering and hospitality, cleaning, children and care, and sales; and a quarter (25%) of those working cash-inhand considered themselves to be unemployed.

Cash-in-hand work seems to complement people’s income from formal employment. A fifth (20%) of respondents working full-time said they had worked informally in the previous year; and just under a fifth (18%) were working part-time as well as taking cash-in-hand. A third (33%) of those working cash-in-hand said they did so for 21 hours or more during the week. However half (50%) of those who were working cash-in-hand said they would be willing to make the move to formal employment.

176

Ibid Source: Travers, A. (2000): ‘Prospects For Enterprise’, London: Community Links evidence paper series, number 2 178 Source: Community links (2009) The Informal Economy in the London Borough of Brent: A Quantitative and Qualitative Picture and Strategic Approach 177

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3.3

96

Driving productivity: innovation, research and development Innovation is one of the five key drivers of productivity recognised by the government, together with investment, skills, enterprise and competition. However, data on innovation in local authority areas is limited. Innovative activities are also often poorly reflected in traditional indicators such as investment in formal R&D, or patent applications and awards. Metrics that can cope with this complex concept are still weak, and rarely available below the regional level. As a proxy for levels of innovation we have assessed the proportion of jobs and firms in Knowledge Business Industries (KBIs) in Brent’s economy. This typically includes activities related to Research and Development, medical services, ICT, media, finance services and other business services – areas where innovation is generally considered to be more prevalent.

3.3.1

Employment in Knowledge Businesses Industries (KBIs) Table 51: outlines employment in sectors which typically have 25 per cent or more of the workforce with NVQ Level 4 qualifications. By this measure Brent has a total of 17,771 employees working within KBIs in the borough, representing 18.9 per cent of the borough’s total employment and over on-in-ten (11.7%) of employment in KBIs in West London. Whilst the proportion of employees in Brent is behind the average for West London (21.7%), London (30.3%) and the national average (21.8%), growth rates in KBI employment in Brent (1.9 %pa) are twice the national average (0.9%pa) and slightly above the London performance (1.8 %pa) illustrated in Figure 63:. This relates to the concentration of medical services within the borough (including the Central Middlesex Hospital), as well as a growing number of ICT related businesses.

Table 51: Total employees in KBIs; and percentage of total employment, 2008

179

KBI Employees

KBI as a % of total employment

Location Quotient (GB=1)

% per annum change 2003 to 2008

GB

5,828,877

21.8

1.0

0.9

London

1,264,316

30.3

1.4

1.8

West London

152,460

21.7

1.0

1.1

Brent

17,771

18.9

0.9

1.9

Figure 63: Change in levels of employment in KBI, (Index 2003=100), 2003 to 2008 180

179 180

Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 Ibid CLES Consulting

Brent Local Economic Assessment

3.4

97

Business and local employment The borough provides workplace employment for approximately 113,000 people (employed and selfemployed) accounting for 13.9 per cent of West Londonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment; 2 per cent of total employment in London.

Despite strong growth in a number of industry sectors, continued industrial re-structuring across the Borough (illustrated in Figure 64:) has resulted in a net decrease of just under 4,000 employees in the last five years (-0.7%pa). Comparatively employment levels across West London have increased by 0.8 per cent per annum, still behind the London (1.2%pa) and UK average (0.9%pa), reflecting spatial differences in employment growth.

Table 52: and Figure 64: show that the largest private sector employment (employees plus the selfemployed) in Brent is in wholesale and retail (21,800 employees) accounting for almost a fifth (19.3%) of employment. This is followed by business services (16,800), manufacturing (10,600) - in particular within the manufacturing of food and drink sector (5,000) - transport and communications (10,600), and the construction sector (9,500). The borough also provides a significant number of jobs in the public sector181; including administration (5,000), education (6,500), and health (13,700).

Table 52: also illustrates the net in year change in employment between 2003 and 2008 within Brent, compared with West London, London and the UK. The main areas of employment growth within Brent are in education, health and other personal services182 (accounting for a total net increase of 6,100 employees in the borough between 2003 and 2008).

Significant net decreases in employment183 have been seen in the hotels and restaurants sector (6,500 jobs); the wholesale and retail sector (-2,200 jobs), and across manufacturing (-1,400 jobs), with a decline in the number of food and drink manufacturing jobs (-600), and with the pulp, paper and printing manufacturing sector (-900 jobs). The UK as a whole saw a similar rate of decline in manufacturing between 2003 and 2008.

Table 52: Employment by broad industrial classification, 2003 to 2008

Sector

All Manufacturing: Food, drinks & tobacco Textiles Wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil refining & nuclear fuel Chemicals & man-made fibres Rubber & plastic products Other non-metallic mineral products Engineering Other manufacturing Electricity, gas & water supply Construction Wholesale and Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & Communications Financial Services Business services Public administration Education Healthcare Other personal services (mostly public) Total

181 182 183 184

Brent

level in 2008 10,600 5,000 600 200 1,300 0.0 200 100 500 2,400 400 100 9,500 21,800 7,100 10,600 1,300 16,800 5,000 6,500 13,700 9,500 112,700

percentage of total 9.4 4.5 0.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.4 19.3 6.3 9.4 1.2 14.9 4.4 5.8 12.2 8.4 100.0

level change 20032008 -1,400 -600 <100 <100 -900 0.0 <100 <100 -200 400 -100 <100 300 -2,200 -6,500 600 -400 0.0 -400 2,200 1,000 2,900 -3,900

% per annum change 2003 to 2008 -2.5 -2.3 1.1 11.0 -10.3 0.0 -2.3 -6.7 -7.0 3.3 -3.6 38.0 0.6 -1.9 -12.2 1.2 -5.3 0.0 -1.6 8.7 1.6 7.4 -0.7

These figures excludes public services that are included under the heading â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;other personal servicesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Other personal services is a broad sector category that includes mostly public services Figures include employees and the self-employed Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry 2008 CLES Consulting

184

West London

London

UK

% per annum change 2003 to 2008 -3.4 -0.1 1.5 -3.2 -3.6 -13.1 -23.1 -3.0 0.3 -4.0 -2.6 1.1 2.0 0.7 -2.9 1.6 -3.4 2.0 -0.6 1.8 1.1 2.8 0.8

% per annum change 2003 to 2008 -3.6 -0.4 -3.7 -5.5 -3.6 3.5 -12.0 -5.1 -1.3 -15.4 -1.9 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 3.3 -1.1 2.3 2.1 2.4 1.2

% per annum change 2003 to 2008 -3.1 -1.5 -7.1 -1.6 -3.8 0.5 -4.1 -3.5 -2.7 -2.9 -2.8 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.6 0.2 -0.8 3.2 0.3 1.8 2.1 1.0 0.9

Brent Local Economic Assessment

98

Figure 64: Employment by broad industrial classification, 2008 185 Wholesale and Retail

21,764

Business services (excluding Financial)

16,802

Health

13,732

Transport & Communications (ICT Digital)

10,604

All Manufacturing:

10,584

Other personal services (mostly public)

9,520

Construction

9,488

Hotels (tourism)

7,069

Education

6,540

Food, drinks & tobacco

5,029

Public administration (exc Education and Health)

4,944

Engineering

2,411

Financial Services

1,334 0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Employment (2008)

Figure 65: Change in employment by broad industrial classification, 2008 30.0

Brent: Percentage of employees by sector 1998 to 2008 25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

185 186

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry 2008 and Oxford Economics Ibid CLES Consulting

186

25,000

Brent Local Economic Assessment

3.5

99

Local concentrations of employment It is useful to assess the relative strength of particular industries relative to London as a whole in order to identify those sectors which are important locally, i.e. have a greater concentration of employment, or have the potential for growth. The following table provides a more detailed analysis of employment in Brent. Table 53: shows relative employment concentration measured by a “location quotient” or “LQ”. An industry with a share of employment double the national average has an LQ of 2; one with half the national share has an LQ of 0.5.

The sectors which show particular concentrations (or specialism) in Brent, compared to the UK average, are in: manufacturing of food, drink and tobacco (LQ=3.3); transport and communications (ICT) (LQ=1.6); wholesale and retailing (LQ=1.2) and construction (1.2). Table 53: also illustrates that local concentrations of employment become magnified when comparing Brent within the London context; in particular the concentrations of employment within most manufacturing subsectors, including food and drink, wood products, chemicals and man-made fibres, and engineering.

The table also indicates whether a sector is:

Specialised and growing: sectors which have above average levels of employment growth such as Healthcare, and transport and communications.

Specialised and declining: above average levels of employment and job losses since 1998 including food and drink manufacturing; and the wholesale and retail sector.

Under-represented and growing: sectors which have seen growth but remain at below average specialisation, these include utilities, education, and other personal services.

Under-represented and declining: those industries that have lost jobs and have low specialisation, including hotels and restaurants, and other traditional manufacturing sectors.

Table 53: Employment concentration (LQs for UK=1 and London=1) 187 188 Brent Sector All Manufacturing: Food, drinks & tobacco

Specialised in London context

Y Y

Textiles

Y

Wood products

Y

Pulp, paper & printing

N

Coke, oil refining & nuclear fuel

N

Chemicals & man-made fibres

N

Rubber & plastic products

N

Other non-metallic mineral products

N

Engineering Other manufacturing

Y N

Electricity, gas & water supply

N

Construction

Y

Wholesale and Retail

Y

Hotels & restaurants

N

Transport & Communications

Y

Financial Services

N

Business services

N

Public administration

N

Education

N

Healthcare

Y

Other personal services (mostly public)

N

Change

West London Bench UK=1

Bench London=1

Bench UK=1

Bench London=1

0.9

2.0

0.6

1.3

3.3

7.3

1.3

2.9

1.1

1.7

0.5

0.8

0.6

2.1

0.3

1.1

0.9

0.6

1.1

0.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.3

1.1

0.2

1.0

0.2

0.7

0.4

1.7

1.1

4.8

0.5

2.0

0.5

2.1

0.4

1.5

0.5

1.2

0.4

1.0

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.5

1.2

1.7

0.8

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.0

0.9

1.0

0.9

1.6

1.3

2.6

2.1

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.2

0.8

0.6

1.3

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.9

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.3

0.7

0.9

1.3

1.0

1.4

1.1

187 The Location Quotient (LQ) is a calculated ratio between the local economy and the national economy. This ratio is calculated for all industries to determine whether or not the local economy has a greater share of that industry than expected. A LQ of 1 indicates that the local industry share exactly matches the national industry share.

188 Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry 2008 and Oxford Economics

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100

The table does not paint a positive picture of Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy. The borough is only highly specialised in food and drink manufacturing, engineering, and the wholesale / retail sector, reflecting the key sectors located within Brent, in particular within the Park Royal industrial estate. Only the transport and communications, and health sectors show a level of specialism and strong growth.

3.6

Full-time, part-time employment by gender Table 15: shows relative shares of full and part-time employment within Brent. There has been a significant fall in full-time employment (-10.3%) over the last decade in the borough, also illustrated in Figure 66: However there has been a corresponding increase in part-time employment, growing faster in Brent (8.5% - corresponding to an additional 2,100 employees) compared with the average for West London (7.0%) and UK (1.3%).

The growth in part-time work is inflated by growth in part-time labour recruitment positions (SIC 74.5) which account for over a third of all growth in part time work - it must be recognised that this figure does not just represent employment in recruitment firms but also temporary workers that are recruited by these firms and who could be working elsewhere in London. Even when these jobs are removed from the analysis growth in part-time work in Brent remains above the national average.

Whilst employment levels have fallen in Brent, Table 15: shows that this has disproportionately affected male employment levels, falling by -6.6 per cent over the last five years compared with -4.4 per cent for female employment levels.

Table 54: Employees by full and part-time status and by gender category

GB: full-time

18,358,000

Percentage change 2003 to 2008 4.9

GB: part-time

8,319,000

1.3

Full-time/part-time employment

2008

Male / Female employment

2008

190

Percentage change 2003 to 2008

GB: male

13,504,000

4.1

GB: female

13,173,000

3.4

London: full-time

3,080,000

4.6

London: male

2,168,000

5.4

London: part-time

1,088,000

10.7

London: female

2,000,000

6.9

West London: full-time

522,000

2.1

West London: male

379,000

2.1

West London: part-time

179,000

7.0

West London: female

322,000

4.8

Brent: full-time

67,100

-10.3

Brent: male

50,800

-6.6

Brent: part-time

26,900

8.5

Brent: female

43,200

-4.4

Figure 66: Full-time and part-time employment, index 1998=100190

189

189

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry 2008 Ibid CLES Consulting

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Change in the number of jobs by ward in Brent, 2003 to 2008 Table 55: illustrates that employment growth has been concentrated within the wards of Sudbury, Mapesbury, Preston and Northwick Park; interestingly each area was more likely than other wards to have a faster rate of growth in part-time employment over the period. The table also illustrates that the main areas losing employment are: Alperton, Fryent, Queensbury (to the north), Dollis Hill and Dudden Hill (towards the southern edge of the borough).

Table 55: Employees numbers (excluding self-employed) by ward, 2008

2003 CAS ward Figures rounded to 100

Alperton

Full Time Workers

Total

Part Time Workers

191

2003 to 2008 Total

Full-time

Part-time

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

% change

% change

% change

8,600

9.1

6,000

69.2

2,700

30.8

-46.7

-54.6

-12.8

Barnhill

3,200

3.4

2,000

64.6

1,100

35.4

13.1

16.0

8.4

Brondesbury Park

1,700

1.8

1,000

55.8

800

44.1

-5.9

-2.6

-10.0

Dollis Hill

5,300

5.6

4,200

80.3

1,000

19.7

-5.9

-9.8

14.1

Dudden Hill

3,200

3.4

2,100

67.8

1,000

32.2

-1.4

0.8

-5.7

Fryent

2,800

3.0

2,000

70.3

800

29.7

-35.3

-40.8

-17.0

Harlesden

1,900

2.0

1,200

65.1

700

34.9

-6.5

-7.0

-5.5

Kensal Green

2,100

2.3

1,500

71.8

600

28.2

18.7

26.5

2.7

Kenton

1,900

2.0

1,200

63.0

700

37.0

-10.1

-19.6

12.5

Kilburn

2,900

3.0

1,900

66.0

1,000

34.0

-2.9

-2.1

-4.4

Mapesbury

2,300

2.5

1,600

68.2

800

31.8

28.0

23.1

40.0 20.6

Northwick Park

6,700

7.1

4,800

71.6

1,900

28.4

17.7

16.5

Preston

3,000

3.3

2,000

66.1

1,100

33.9

19.6

14.3

31.0

Queens Park

4,000

4.2

2,800

71.0

1,200

29.0

12.5

2.2

49.1

Queensbury

4,000

4.3

2,700

66.7

1,300

33.3

-8.0

-17.1

18.1

Stonebridge

16,100

17.1

12,600

78.3

3,500

21.7

3.4

0.2

16.9

Sudbury

2,300

2.4

1,400

61.3

900

38.7

46.4

34.0

72.0 21.4

Tokyngton

10,700

11.4

7,900

73.9

2,800

26.1

5.9

1.4

Welsh Harp

1,500

1.6

1,000

73.6

400

26.4

5.0

3.7

9.0

Wembley Central

6,000

6.3

4,300

72.6

1,600

27.4

-3.7

2.8

-17.4

Willesden Green

3,900

4.2

2,800

70.6

1,200

29.4

-3.5

-9.7

15.6

94,000

100.0

67,100

71.4

26,900

28.6

-5.6

-10.3

8.5

Total

191

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry 2008 CLES Consulting

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Business and local economic output (GVA) This section looks at the local economic outputs from businesses located within Brent; this is represented by the Gross Value Added (GVA)192 by businesses during 2008 (latest actual data).

Table 56: and Figure 67: show that the largest wealth generators for the local economy are in wholesale and retail (£598m), business services (£543m), and manufacturing (£520m) – which includes food and drink manufacturing (£262m) – transport and communications (£496m), healthcare (£404m), and construction (£348m).

Table 56: also illustrates the net in year increase in GVA between 2003 and 2008 within Brent, compared with West London, London and the UK. The main areas of GVA growth within Brent are in transport and communications, education and health (each growing faster in Brent than the London and UK average over the last five years); and business services which has seen a significant increase in Brent (a £32m increase on 2003 levels) but witnessed slower growth (1.2%pa) compared with the average for London (4.9%pa) and the UK (5.8%pa).

Table 56: GVA by broad industrial classification, 2003 to 2008

Sector

All Manufacturing: Food, drinks & tobacco Textiles Wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil refining & nuclear fuel Chemicals & man-made fibres Rubber & plastic products Other non-metallic mineral products Engineering Other manufacturing Electricity, gas & water supply Construction Wholesale and Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & Communications Financial Services Business services Public administration Education Healthcare Other personal services (mostly public) Total

193

Brent

West London

London

UK

% per annum change 2003 to 2008

% per annum change 2003 to 2008

-0.5 0.7 0.6 -4.2 0.0 21.6 -7.8 -2.0 9.7 0.0 -2.7 -1.5 1.5 2.0 6.6 2.8 6.9 4.9 0.7 -0.2 4.3 1.8 3.3

0.2 0.2 -3.1 -0.8 -1.5 1.5 1.6 -1.0 0.7 0.8 -0.2 0.1 1.7 2.5 2.2 3.2 5.9 5.8 0.2 0.1 2.9 0.4 2.4

level in 2008 (£m)

percentage of total

level change 2003 to 2008 (£m)

% per annum change 2003 to 2008

% per annum change 2003 to 2008

520 262 17 6 59 0 17 5 29 114 11 7 348 598 141 496 101 543 237 188 404 304 4,405

11.8 5.9 0.4 0.1 1.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.7 2.6 0.3 0.2 7.9 13.6 3.2 11.3 2.3 12.3 5.4 4.3 9.2 6.9 100.0

-7.3 -20.1 4.3 2.6 -26.3 -0.1 2.5 -1.1 4.7 29.2 -3.0 5.0 12.8 -12.8 -61.3 80.9 -2.5 32.2 12.7 55.7 86.4 85.0 291.2

-0.3 -1.5 6.0 12.3 -7.1 -100.0 3.3 -4.0 3.6 6.1 -4.6 31.7 0.7 -0.4 -7.0 3.6 -0.5 1.2 1.1 7.3 4.9 6.8 1.4

-0.7 1.1 7.1 -1.7 1.4 -0.8 -18.8 1.3 12.7 -0.3 -3.0 -2.6 2.8 3.3 4.3 5.0 2.5 4.8 2.3 0.5 4.4 3.2 2.6

192 GVA is defined here as wages plus the difference between the value of goods and services produced and the cost of raw materials and other inputs which are used up in production (i.e. profit) 193 Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry 2008 and Oxford Economics

CLES Consulting

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Figure 67: GVA by broad industrial classification, 2008 194 Wholesale and Retail

598

Business services (excluding Financial)

543

All Manufacturing:

520

Transport & Communications (ICT Digital)

496

Health

404

Construction

348

Other personal services (mostly public)

304

Food, drinks & tobacco

262

Public administration (exc Education and â&#x20AC;Ś

237

Education

188

Hotels (tourism)

141

Engineering

114

Financial Services

101 0

200

400

600

GVA ÂŁm (2008)

Figure 68: Change in GVA by broad industrial classification, 2008 18.0

Brent: Percentage of GVA by sector 1998 to 2008 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

194 195

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry 2008 and Oxford Economics Ibid CLES Consulting

195

800

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104

Business productivity (GVA per employee) The main ways of measuring the productivity of an economy are:

Total Factor Productivity (TFP); labour productivity (GVA or economic output per employee).

Total Factor Productivity is the rate of productivity, controlling for both labour and capital inputs into the production process. It seeks to isolate factors such as quality of capital investments, land use, the availability of infrastructure, innovations and new technology, and improved skills of workers.

Growth in TFP can only be achieved through improvements in how the inputs to the production process are used, particularly the efficiency with which they are combined together.

TFP is difficult to calculate due to limited data availability and measurement issues. This section therefore focuses on labour productivity within broad industry sectors within Brent. This is represented here as GVA per employee (rather than GVA per hour which is only available at regional level). GVA per employee is higher in Brent (£39,086 per employee) compared with the UK average (£36,875 per employee), however this masks significant variation by industry sector within Brent.

Table 57: shows that the most productive196 private sector industries within Brent’s economy are financial services (£75,505 per employee), food and drink manufacturing (£52,049 per employee), engineering (£47,460 per employee), transport and communications (£46,740) and construction (£36,664). Table 57: also illustrates that employees in the local manufacturing sector are more productive than the UK average (but behind the average for London reflecting the nature of the jobs and tasks undertaken within firms in Brent).

Figure 69: shows that most sectors, in particular manufacturing (especially engineering), have experienced significant growth in productivity in the last decade. This is in response to growing global competition which has helped to push local firms to move operations ‘up the value chain’ with a focus upon efficiency and economic output that is based upon added value products and services.

Table 57: GVA per employee by broad industrial classification, 2008 Sector

All Manufacturing: Food, drinks & tobacco Textiles Wood products Pulp, paper & printing Coke, oil refining & nuclear fuel Chemicals & man-made fibres Rubber & plastic products Other non-metallic mineral products Engineering Other manufacturing Electricity, gas & water supply Construction Wholesale and Retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & Communications Financial Services Business services Public administration Education Healthcare Other personal services (mostly public) Total

196 197

Brent

West London

197

London

UK

£ level

% of UK average

£ level

% of UK average

£ level

% of UK average

£ level

49,141 52,049 30,108 34,649 46,019 0.0 99,514 40,445 61,458 47,460 31,284 119,195 36,664 27,466 19,898 46,740 75,505 32,309 47,858 28,711 29,399 31,949 39,086

105.0 103.9 101.2 114.4 97.2 0.0 109.9 106.4 142.3 105.0 96.1 93.8 111.6 101.6 111.1 100.0 86.3 84.2 125.4 112.3 125.5 106.9 106.0

57,034 56,672 34,123 40,193 62,399 140,423 107,591 48,378 69,899 55,303 37,445 142,300 40,876 32,623 24,384 55,372 88,100 41,113 49,378 29,629 30,881 42,999 34,336

121.8 113.1 114.7 132.7 131.8 164.9 118.8 127.3 161.9 122.3 115.1 112.0 124.5 120.7 136.1 118.5 100.7 107.1 129.4 115.8 131.8 143.9 93.1

57,460 57,233 36,963 37,883 62,223 195,938 107,417 42,703 66,893 54,521 37,434 153,067 40,818 33,865 27,528 58,617 126,557 44,909 51,679 29,998 30,824 42,868 51,169

122.8 114.2 124.2 125.0 131.4 230.1 118.6 112.4 154.9 120.6 115.0 120.5 124.3 125.3 153.6 125.4 144.7 117.0 135.4 117.3 131.5 143.5 138.8

46,810 50,110 29,750 30,298 47,342 85,135 90,544 38,001 43,180 45,216 32,541 127,074 32,839 27,035 17,917 46,739 87,462 38,386 38,169 25,577 23,434 29,876 36,876

Excluding utilities and chemical manufacturing where the data is not robust at the local level Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry 2008 CLES Consulting

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Figure 69: Productivity (GVA per employment) by broad industrial classification, 2008 198 Financial Services

75,505

Food, drinks & tobacco

52,049

All Manufacturing

49,141

Public administration (exc Education and Health)

47,858

Engineering

47,460

Transport & Communications (ICT Digital)

46,740

Construction

36,664

Business services (excluding Financial)

32,309

Other personal services (mostly public)

31,949

Health

29,399

Education

28,711

Wholesale and Retail

27,466

Hotels (tourism)

19,898 0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

GVA per employee (2008)

Figure 70: Change in GVA per employment by broad industrial classification, 2008

198 199

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry 2008 and Oxford Economics Ibid CLES Consulting

199

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106

Employment and GVA past trends Figure 71: shows Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic performance over the last five years, in terms of the size of key sectors defined by number of employees (shown by the size of the bubble); growth rates in the number of jobs (vertical axis); and growth rates in GVA (horizontal axis). Education and healthcare have witnessed strong growth in both jobs and GVA. The analysis confirms that the transport and communications sector is also a significant local employment sector which has seen growth in both jobs and GVA over the last 5 years; reflecting levels of local specialism (LQs) shown in Figure 72: Figure 71: Change in GVA and employment by industrial classification, 2003 to 2008 200

Figure 72: Change in GVA per employment by Location Quotient, 2003 to 2008

200 201

Source: Oxford economics Ibid CLES Consulting

201

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107

Employment and GVA forecasts The following section outlines some of the major potential changes illustrated within employment forecasts, by industry sector, for Brent, West London, London and the UK. Table 58: Employment forecasts by broad industrial classification, 2010 to 2020 Sector

Brent

West London

London

202

UK

Net increase/ decrease

Change Percent per annum

-2,000

-2.2

-2.0

-2.4

-1,000

-1.8

-1.4

-1.6

-1.6

Textiles

-200

-4.6

-5.3

-5.8

-5.5

Wood products

<100

0.3

0.4

-0.9

-0.8

Pulp, paper and printing

-400

-4.3

-2.5

-2.7

-2.6

All Manufacturing: Food, drink and tobacco

Coke, oil refining and nuclear fuel

% per annum change 2010 to 2020

-2.0

0

0

1.6

-2.1

-2.0

Chemicals and man-made fibres

<100

-3.3

-2.8

-2.2

-2.2

Rubber and plastic products

<100

-3.0

-1.9

-1.8

-1.7

Other non-metallic mineral products

<100

-1.8

-2.3

-2.2

-2.3

Engineering

-400

-2.1

-2.2

-2.5

-2.1

Other manufacturing

<100

-1.5

-0.4

-0.6

-0.5

<100

-1.8

-0.2

-1.3

-1.2

Electricity, gas and water supply Construction

300

0.3

0.6

0.3

0.9

Wholesale and retail

600

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.9

400

0.6

1.3

1.4

1.1

1,000

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.1

Hotels and restaurants (tourism) Transport and communications (ICT) Financial services

<100

0.4

0.3

0.9

0.5

Business services (excluding Financial)

5,600

3.0

3.5

3.4

3.1

Public administration

-900

-1.9

-1.4

-1.3

-1.3

Education

-600

-0.9

-0.5

-0.2

-0.4

Healthcare

-700

-0.5

-0.1

0.1

0.2

Other personal services (mostly public)

1,800

1.8

2.0

2.1

1.7

Business services London’s employment growth in the decade ahead is forecast to be dominated by continued expansion of the business services sector. This sector is forecast to create, on a net basis, more jobs over the next decade than between 1998 and 2008; and contribute a higher share of aggregate net job creation than before. Similar to the past decade before the recession, skills ‘hungry’ and exporting (or at least export potential) sub-sectors such as management consultancy, legal activities, software, market research and advertising, are predicted to drive net job creation in business services. Within Brent, Business services are expected to create the majority of new jobs, with a net increase of 5,600 jobs between 2010 and 2020.

Other personal services (Creative and cultural industries) One of the next fastest growing sectors, in absolute terms, is predicted to be other personal services. As for business services, particular sub-sectors are expected to generate much of the expansion demand growth in the sector. These sub-sectors mainly cover creative & cultural activities, and have a mix of high, mid and low skilled roles: for example, film, TV, other attraction activities, and sports. Other personal services could create an additional 1,800 jobs between 2010 and 2020 in Brent. Downside risks include the relocation of BBC departments to Manchester.

Construction Construction remains a significant employer within the borough, despite jobs losses during the recession, the sector is forecast to support an additional 300 jobs over the next decade. London is still home to a number of mega-infrastructure developments. For example, Crossrail is Europe’s largest transport infrastructure project. Preliminary construction work is already underway and the main build phase is progressing in 2010/11. Construction will generate over 14,000 jobs in and around London, of which 3,500 will be directly linked to the tunnelling environment. London has a range of other major infrastructure projects, including 2012 Olympics, Westfield Stratford City, and the Wembley Area of Opportunity. Each of these developments has the potential to support growth and create employment, as long as their skills and employment needs are met.

202

Source: Oxford Economics ‘Policy-off’ forecasts CLES Consulting

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Manufacturing Continued decline in manufacturing - the manufacturing sector is predicted to shed almost 50,000 net jobs over the next decade within London; however this is fewer than the 110,000 net job losses between 1998 and 2008. While many manufacturing activities in London will face cost pressures both internationally and from lower cost regions in the UK, there will undoubtedly be some growth opportunities, such as those related to low carbon and green technologies. Recent studies suggest that Brent is home to a number of related ‘low carbon’ businesses offering potential to develop the sector and links to other clusters within London and the wider international economy.203 Within Brent, manufacturing is forecast to experience continuing decline, with net losses of -2,000 jobs to 2020. This clearly has implications for commercial property requirement within key employment sites across the borough that are centres for manufacturing firms, such as Park Royal.

Public services (including public administration, health and education) The forecasts reflect the emerging cut-backs in public spending. Despite continued population growth (often a determinant of public spending within a local area) it is clear that the next decade will be an entirely different decade for public sector employment. Oxford Economics’ forecasts suggest that Brent’s public administration, education and healthcare sectors will experience a total net decline of up to -2,200 jobs by 2020.

3.11.1 Employment forecasts by location, 2010 to 2020 Table 59: shows baseline employment forecasts for the period 2010 to 2020. Employment forecasts are strongest in central London. Across West London, Table 59: illustrates a net increase of up to 84,000 jobs in the next decade, including: an additional 5,000 jobs in Brent (and an additional 1,000 self-employed); 10,000 jobs in Ealing; 23,000 in Hammersmith and Fulham; 6,000 in Harrow, 22,000 in Hillingdon; and 18,000 in Hounslow.204 Table 59: Employee forecasts (excluding self-employed) by borough, 2010 to 2020 Employees ‘000s Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Camden City of London Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Islington Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames Lambeth Lewisham Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Southwark Sutton Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Wandsworth Westminster

203 204

Number of employees 2008

Net in year change level 2020 vs 2010

53,000 135,000 80,000 113,000 132,000 313,000 329,000 150,000 132,000 111,000 80,000 96,000 137,000 78,000 84,000 87,000 209,000 135,000 211,000 128,000 89,000 147,000 76,000 79,000 80,000 84,000 90,000 194,000 84,000 224,000 69,000 130,000 643,000

2,000 11,000 6,000 5,000 (+1,000 additional self-employed) 14,000 40,000 49,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 8,000 10,000 23,000 5,000 6,000 6,000 22,000 18,000 37,000 12,000 11,000 14,000 7,000 8,000 0,000 7,000 14,000 32,000 11,000 35,000 4,000 13,000 81,000

Source: GLA Economics 2010 Source: London boroughs baseline sector employment outlook – Oxford Economics and GLA Economics CLES Consulting

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Both sets of forecasts show below illustrate that the majority of employment growth will take place within the CAZ in London over the next decade. The divergence in employment outlooks is primarily a function of the transport accessibility and site modification assumptions in the GLA Economics approach, which are not factored into Oxford Economicsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; forecasts in the same way (Oxford Economicsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; borough employment outlooks tie more closely to the existing performance, sectoral specialisations and labour skills profiles in the boroughs).

Figure 73: London borough baseline employment forecast, OE 2010 to 2020

205

Figure 74: London borough baseline employment forecast, GLA 2010 to 2020

205 206

Source: Oxford Economics, cited in London Destinations 2020 Source: GLA 2010 baseline employment forecasts CLES Consulting

206

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110

3.11.2 Baseline GVA forecasts, 2010 to 2020 Table 60: shows baseline GVA forecasts207 for the period 2010 to 2020 and suggest that Brent’s economy will be £4 to 5bn over the course of the next decade, with the following changes in economic output:

Business services are expected to create the majority of additional economic output, with a net increase of £347m in Brent’s economy between 2010 and 2020; growing faster than the UK average over the same period. In contrast, the banking, finance and insurance sector is expected to increase by just £45m within the local economy;

transport and communications is the next largest contributor to output growth, generating an additional £170m per annum in GVA by 2020; growing faster than the UK average for the sector;

distribution, which includes wholesale and retail could also create an additional £162m, and hotels (tourism) could create a further £24m in GVA output;

construction could create an additional £75m GVA from local businesses in Brent, growing faster than the West London and London averages;

manufacturing is forecast to experience continuing growth in economic output (experiencing growing productivity but falling employment), with net increase of £16m from food and drink, and £23m from the engineering sector. Overall, manufacturing GVA is forecast to increase by up to £40m over the next decade.

Table 60: GVA forecasts by broad industrial classification, 2010 to 2020208

Sector

All Manufacturing: Food, drink and tobacco Textiles Wood products Pulp, paper and printing Coke, oil refining and nuclear fuel Chemicals and man-made fibres Rubber and plastic products Other non-metallic mineral products Engineering Other manufacturing Electricity, gas and water supply Construction Wholesale and retail Hotels and restaurants (tourism) Transport and communications (ICT Digital) Financial services Business services (excluding Financial) Public administration Education Healthcare Other personal services (mostly public) Total (accounting for rounding)

207 208

West London

Brent Net increase/ decrease £m

Percent per annum change

40 16 -5 2 -8 0 3 0 10 23 -1 1 75 162 24 170 45 347 -19 -6 2 69 1,053

0.8 0.6 -3.3 3.1 -1.6 0 1.7 0.3 3.2 2.0 -0.5 0.9 2.1 2.5 1.7 3.1 4.0 5.3 -0.8 -0.3 0.1 2.3 2.3

Employees plus self employed Source: Oxford Economics ‘Policy-off’ forecasts CLES Consulting

London

UK

Percent per annum change 2010 to 2020

1.2 1.0 -4.2 3.1 0.3 4.6 2.3 1.7 2.6 2.2 0.5 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.4 3.0 3.9 5.8 -0.3 0.1 0.3 2.4 3.0

0.7 0.7 -4.7 1.8 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.8 2.6 2.0 0.2 1.4 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.9 4.6 5.7 -0.3 0.3 0.6 2.5 3.4

1.6 0.7 -4.3 1.9 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.8 2.5 2.4 0.3 1.4 2.4 3.0 2.2 3.0 4.3 5.0 -0.2 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.8

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3.11.3 Baseline forecasts - employment and GVA, 2010 to 2020 Figure 75: shows Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s forecast performance between 2010 and 2020, illustrating changes to jobs and economic output. Clearly the business services sector will remain a key employer (shown by the size of the bubble), and is forecast to see the highest rates of growth in terms of both employment and GVA. Transport and communications, wholesale and retail, and hotel sectors are also forecast to witness a combination of GVA and job growth.

Figure 75: Forecast change by broad industrial classification, Brent, 2010 to 2020

3.12

209

Employer skill needs and workforce development

3.12.1 Current and future skills needs There are significant uncertainties about the economic prospects for the decade ahead. Public spending will be cut and consumer spending is likely to grow less quickly than in the past.

Consequently, UK growth will depend more on export prospects and the global economy. The London economy is already export focused and a world leader in many global services. This means that London may have stronger growth prospects than the rest of the UK. This is reflected in the forecasts used in this assessment which suggest that employment in London will return to its prerecession peak by 2014, two years ahead of the UK as a whole.

London has set a clear ambition to meet its future skills needs and increase employment and opportunity through the Mayorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Economic Development Strategy, and the London Skills and Employment Board Strategy. The London Statement of Skills Priorities sets out likely future trends in employment growth and skills demand in the decade ahead, building on clear evidence from Sector Skills Councils. It sets out the following priorities for skills across London:

209

High level skills are critical to driving the economy. London must ensure the supply of high skills is the right type and quality to meet employersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; needs.

Ensuring a basic platform of employability skills. Employability skills are important at all levels and should be central to all skills provision. Skills for Life need to be increasingly tied to employment outcomes and employer need.

Source: Oxford Economics CLES Consulting

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Boosting the quantity and quality of Apprenticeships in key growth sectors. Driving up employer demand is critical, while training must be clearly linked to employer need.

Improving Leadership and Management skills. This is critical to delivering future growth and maximising the use of skills.

Developing progression routes for low-skilled Londoners. Developing routes for people to progress from low-paid jobs, including through Apprenticeships.

Focus on sustained employment and progression outcomes. Building this outcomefocus into the heart of all skills and employment services.

So that Brent residents can benefit from investment and new job opportunities both within Brent and the wider London labour market, it is important that the skills profile of the local labour force meet new requirements presented by the opportunities created.

London and Brent’s employment growth in the decade ahead is forecast to be dominated by continued expansion of the business services sector. Other sectors predicted to contribute positively to overall expansion demand across London are creative and cultural industries, business services, hotel and restaurants, retail (but less so wholesale activities), and transport and communications; these are sectors that are also forecast to drive growth in Brent. Manufacturing employment is predicted to continue contracting, and education and health employment will be relatively unchanged by 2020 compared to current levels (due to public spending cuts).

In addition to the labour and skills needed to facilitate growing sectors and occupations (‘expansion demand’), skill demand forecasts also need to take account of the labour and skills required to replace ‘leavers’, i.e. ‘replacement demand’. This includes persons leaving to have a family, those migrating out of London, moves to other jobs, and persons who become unemployed and retire (either early or at official retirement age). Taken together, both expansion demand and replacement demand is referred to as London’s ‘total replacement demand for skills’.

Employment and skills ‘replacement demand’ forecasts for London, shown in Figure 76:, reinforce how significant the net replacement demand quantum is relative to expansion demand over the next decade. Net replacement demand (leavers minus joiners) is approximately four times expansion demand; gross replacement demand (replacement plus expansion demand) is ten times expansion demand. This is an important conclusion as it identifies the need for labour and skills - even in sectors and occupations in which employment is declining.

Figure 76: London net requirement for labour and skills 2010 to 2020

More than one half of net demand in London (120,000 per annum) will be for managers and senior professionals. Much of the rest will be sales and customer service occupations (26,000) and elementary service occupations (49,000). Over half (110,000) of London’s requirement will require high-level skills (degree level or above). The key will be ensuring the quality of skills and effective CLES Consulting

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match to employer needs, within Brent and across London. The remaining one in two jobs will require either intermediate (A-Level or equivalent) or lower skills (GCSE or equivalent and below).

The impact of structural economic change has been reflected by the Government's response to education policy and skills training. The Government is keen that Britain’s workforce is flexible and can adapt to the challenges presented by further globalisation. Future workforce and skills needs linked to growth in London’s economy include the following210:

Business services: Growth is likely to be concentrated in management consultancy, legal activities, software, market research and advertising.

Creative and cultural industries: This includes roles at all skill levels, such as film, TV, museum and attraction activities and sports. Skillset - the sector skills council - forecast that one in five new jobs in London will come in the creative sector.

Construction: Delivering developments linked to the Olympics, Wembley, Crossrail; this will increase demand for skilled and semi-skilled construction workers

Tourism - Hotel and restaurants: Already accounting for 7 per cent of London’s jobs, this will be a key driver of expansion demand in elementary service occupations (such as waiters / waitresses, bar staff etc).

Wholesale and retail: This sector accounts for 13 per cent of total employment today and will create jobs in personal service and sales and customer service occupations;

Transport and communications: Accounting for 7 per cent of jobs today, this sector will create jobs in the process, plant and machine operative and elementary, trade, plant and storage occupations; and

Manufacturing and Low carbon technologies: 100,000 people are employed in the UK today and growth will come from carbon finance, wind energy and building technology (such as retrofitting). Within Brent, recent research211 suggests that related businesses in the low carbon supply chain employs over 2,000 people, with an annual turnover of £268m.

The LDA research suggests that the majority of these jobs will be higher skilled. Overall, around half of those employed in the sector in London are qualified to degree level and above, but given the already favourable high skills profile in the low carbon sector in comparison with the rest of London’s economy the study concludes that the profile will change significantly in the immediate future. However, the study also challenges the common misconception that low carbon jobs are only high skilled jobs. Almost one in four jobs require skills at Level 2 or below, and within specific sub‑sectors such as Recycling and Recovery this figure rises to 1 in 3 jobs.

The difficulty in analysing the extent of offer and take up of ‘low carbon’ learning provision within the FE sector relates to the challenges of isolating the relevant course, or module, across a very broad and previously difficult to define sector. In 2009/10, approximately 10,000 learners started a ‘low carbon course’ in London. Within Brent, the College of North West London was one of the two largest providers of low carbon courses.

Of the 440 different courses on offer within London, The College of North West London has the widest offering, with 44 courses on offer, followed by Havering with 36 courses. These included courses such as NVQs in Mechanical Engineering Services, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning and Plumbing; Diplomas in Electrical Engineering and Advanced Construction.

The analysis undertaken by the LDA212 shows that the vast majority of courses are delivered at Level 3 and Level 1. As captured by a pan-London employer survey, Level 3 qualifications are critical to the sector, with 22 percent of staff qualified to this level. The relatively low numbers of Level 2 courses may impact on some learner progression pathways, depending on the nature of gaps in provision. This would need further assessment before firm conclusions can be drawn, however, there appears to be scope to extend level 2 provision in London to meet future low carbon demand.

210 211 212

Source: Destinations 2020 Employment projections across sectors and occupations in London Source: LDA (2009): London low carbon sector borough data 2009 Ibid CLES Consulting

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An important caveat in the skills analysis presented here is the extent to which past trends are reflective of future trends in labour market ‘flows’. For example, will financial and housing market conditions, with knock-on impacts to pension values and personal wealth, reduce flows to early retirement? Will joiners from economic inactivity increase on the back of welfare reform? These uncertainties mean that the results should be treated with caution and revisited when additional data on labour market flows ‘post recession’ become apparent. Evidence already for 2009 has shown how the recession has affected these flows and it has been assumed for this skills research (led by Oxford Economics for the GLA) that labour market flows do not return to ‘normal’ until 2015.

While it is expected that the majority of the requirement will be filled by migrants and leavers from education, there is also the possibility that the workless population could meet some of the demand.

The scale on which this occurs depends on various factors including the extent of welfare incentives, government policy aimed at targeting worklessness, and the skill characteristics of the workless population in comparison to education leavers/migrants and in relation to demand from the economy.

The skill need forecasts also show a high level of demand in London’s economy for Level 4+ (degree and above qualifications) in London. 35,000 postgraduate new entrants from education and inmigration are predicted to be required annually over the next decade by the London economy, and 74,000 with sub-degree (i.e. foundation) and degree level qualifications (NVQ or equivalent at level 4+). Together this makes up half of the overall net requirement.

The remaining net requirement skill need is split as follows: intermediate (level 2 to 3) qualifications (24%), other qualifications (14%) and low (level 1 and below) qualifications (12%). In other words London’s future skill needs is a picture of ‘top heavy’ demand for high-level qualifications, supported by a mix of demand between intermediate and low qualifications. Comparison with resident skill levels in Brent (shown in the people and labour market of the LEA) indicates a mis-match between the current skill levels of the local labour market and future requirements – suggesting growing competition for a diminishing number of jobs requiring lower level skills.

3.12.2 Skills difficulties Table 61: below shows data from the National Employers Skills Survey 2009, covering firms in Brent and West London, and suggests that almost a fifth (16.5%) of employers within the borough reported skills gaps within their workforce,213 compared with an average of 18.2 per cent in West London, 17.2 per cent in London and national average of 19.0 per cent. This suggests that employers within Brent are more likely to have the skills they require to meet current business objectives; however this does not account for the issue of latent skills issues, where local employers may be less inclined to assess skills issues or ‘require’ lower levels of skills given the nature of the jobs/tasks within their firm.

‘Soft skills’ such as customer handling, team working and oral communication are the most commonly cited local skills gaps. London has a high concentration of workers lacking sufficient proficiency in literacy (31% of skill gaps) and more than one quarter of all skill gaps in the capital (28%) are reported by employers who are looking for better skills in foreign languages (compared to 13% across England).

Table 61: Employers reporting skill gaps within their workforce, 2005 to 2009

214

number

percent

number

percent

2005 to 2009 Percentage point change

England

228,567

16.4

284,230

19.0

3.6

London

28,976

12.8

40,567

17.2

5.4

West London

4,856

12.8

7,207

18.2

5.4

744

11.0

1,097

16.5

5.5

2005

Brent

2009

213

Skills gaps exist where employers report having employees who are not fully proficient at their job. The indicator is the proportion of establishments reporting any skills gaps in the current workforce 214 National Employers Skill Survey, 2009 CLES Consulting

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Almost one-in-five (16.6%) of employers in Brent reported they had one or more vacancy in 2009, higher than the average for London (14.1%) and nationally (12.1). Looking at skill shortage vacancies provides a measure of positions that have proved hard-to-fill in the last 12 months due to a prevailing shortage of specific skills within the local labour market.215 Table 62: shows that employers in Brent have found it harder to recruit from the local labour market in the last 12 months. Over a third (34.4%) of employers reported skill shortages vacancies, higher than the average for London (24.4%) and the national average (21.1%).

Table 62: Employers reporting local skill shortage vacancies, 2009

216

Number

Percent

England

-

21.1

London

7,589

24.4

West London

1,576

31.2

377

34.3

Brent

The high incidence of skill shortages reflects in part strong demand and competition among employers to fill jobs. While skills gaps and shortages may have eased somewhat due to the economic recession, it is clear that shortages remain and that Londonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s underlying challenges have not been fully tackled â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the risk is they will reappear as the economy grows again. Some of the local skills shortages reported during consultation for this assessment include the following:

Food manufacturing: Technical and skilled roles including process engineering; food scientists and technologists; quality assurance; bakers and millers.

Construction: skilled and semi-skilled occupations, including site managers, security staff, wood trades and interior fit-out, envelope workers and brick layers, floorers and scaffolders.

Wholesale and retail / hospitality and tourism: chefs, cooks and catering services assistants, customer services skills.

Addressing communications and language skills is also an issue which would help strengthen the local workforce in Brent; however public cuts and challenges to funding ESOL pose a significant risk to providing training for local residents (and employees). Given the diversity of Brent, and transitory nature of parts of communities, delivering basic language and literacy skills will help strengthen the local labour market offer and increase residents performance in the economy.

215 Skills shortage vacancies exist where employers are not able to recruit from the local labour market due to a shortage in required skills including generic skills such as: team working, communications, problem solving, sales skills, leadership skills, and specific technical skills relating to local shortages of labour 216 National Employers Skill Survey, 2009

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3.12.3 Workforce development Figure 77: shows the percentage of the working age population receiving job-related training in the 13 weeks prior to participation within the UK annual population survey. The survey estimates that around 31,700 (16.8%) of residents received job-related training, compared with an average of 17.1 per cent in West London, 18.1 per cent in London and 18.6 per cent nationally. Managers and professionals, and full-time employees (compared with part-time employees) were more likely to be receiving training within Brent.

Almost two-fifths (37.2%) of employees in the public sector in Brent were receiving job related training compared with a national average of 41.1 per cent. The proportion of residents working in the manufacturing / production sector receiving training in Brent was significantly higher (36.9%) compared with the average in West London (19.8%), London (19.3%) and the UK (18.8%).

Whilst the proportion of Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s residents receiving training at Level 4 and above (graduate level, 33.5%) was comparable to the London (32.1%) and UK (35.8%) averages, the proportion of Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s residents receiving training up to Level 3 or below (17.6%) was significantly lower than the average for London and the UK (21.2%).

Figure 77: Percentage of the population receiving job-related training, 2009 Working age population

Brent

West London

London

217

UK

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

Percent

Number

All working age residents

31,700

16.8

171,400

17.1

961,400

18.1

7,396,200

Percent

18.6

Residents aged 25-64 years

28,200

17.8

148,000

18.0

839,800

19.0

6,204,900

19.1

Residents in employment

31,700

24.5

171,200

24.8

958,200

26.5

7,362,500

26.4

Managers and Professionals

18,700

31.6

97,400

28.6

610,400

30.9

4,064,100

33.0

All service sector employees

27,700

25.5

149,300

25.7

870,300

27.8

6,309,300

28.7

Private sector services

14,800

20.0

84,200

20.3

471,900

22.0

2,829,300

20.8

Production sector employees

2,600

36.9

10,300

19.8

42,100

19.3

622,100

18.8

Public sector employees

12,800

37.2

65,100

39.2

398,400

40.2

3,480,100

41.4

Training at NVQ L4+

18,500

33.5

87,100

29.0

562,500

32.1

3,538,000

35.8

Training at NVQ L3 and below

13,200

17.6

84,300

21.5

399,000

21.2

3,858,200

21.2

Full-time employees

26,100

26.2

140,800

26.0

777,100

27.2

5,668,200

27.1

Part-time employees

5,500

19.2

30,600

20.7

183,800

23.8

1,726,400

24.3

Figure 78: Percentage of the population receiving job-related training, 2004 to 2009 218

217 218

Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS 2009 Ibid CLES Consulting

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Key sectors and spatial development Competitive economies tend to be those with clearly identifiable specialisms or clusters of activity which stimulate growth in economic productivity. At the same time, specialisation needs to be accompanied by adaptive capacity so that businesses and their employees are able to respond to changing economic circumstances.

The Mayor’s strategy219 notes that globalisation implies that firms have a wider choice about where to do business, and one of the tasks for the Mayor is to make London the world’s most attractive proposition. A key focus of the strategy will therefore be to position and promote London as the business capital of the world. The other key point to note here is that in addition to the growth in financial services, London is world-leading in many other areas. “Rising to the Challenge” identifies London’s world-leading sectors as:

Higher and business education; Retail; Tourism; Financial Services; Legal Services; Accounting; ICT; and, Creative Industries.

This section considers in more detail the industrial structure of the borough’s economy, and provides information on potential priority growth sectors as identified by the analysis. The section also contains analysis of sectors which are not typically covered in the standard industrial classification, for example the Hospitality and Tourism sector, and the Creative/New Media sector. It also makes reference to the ‘Low Carbon economy’ and potential to develop business opportunities within Brent.

We should be mindful that the public sector should not attempt to ‘pick winners’; it does not have access to privileged future information about which sectors of the economy will or will not grow.

However, in our view, there is merit in identifying sectors (and sub-sectors) with growth potential as a vital intelligence gathering exercise helping policy makers to try to understand the future shape of the local economy. Moreover, there are circumstances in which it makes sense for intervention to have a sectoral focus, for example dialogue with employers regarding sectoral skills issues.

As discussed in the previous section some industries are located in specific parts of the borough because of the geographical position within the capital. Other sectors, in particular retail, are more evenly spread across the borough and therefore may be still important in relation to the provision of local services and employment. Finally some sectors are important as they are key assets and/or part of key infrastructure which can be promoted as part of the local ‘brand’ or ‘offer’ of a place, both within London and internationally, such as the internationally recognised ‘Wembley’ brand.

The sectors have been chosen from the analysis in the business section of the LEA, because they are important to Brent’s economy for a number of reasons: 1)

the main employment sectors: wholesale and retail, business services, and construction;

2)

as wealth generators and high productivity sectors: (both now and forecast growth in the future): transport and communications, and food and drink manufacturing and creative / new media companies (and because of their representation within key areas such as the Park Royal industrial estate); and

3)

key local assets: that are important for place marketing, branding and visitor attraction including hospitality and tourism, which also includes sports and leisure services.

Sectors covered in the analysis in this section of the LEA include the following (industry sector definitions and Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Codes are included in the annex:

219 220

Business services220: Brent has experienced growth in business services over the last decade, and whilst recent growth in employment has slowed, forecasts suggest that the

LDA (2009): Rising to the Challenge, Proposals for the Mayor’s Economic Development Strategy for Greater London Excluding financial and insurance services CLES Consulting

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sector will grow (in both jobs and GVA) again up to 2020 as London returns as the main engine in the UK’s economy.

Construction: the sector is expected to continue to support growth within the borough, with pipeline of future development and regeneration schemes providing a better range of housing and employment opportunities in some of Brent’s most deprived areas and across London.

Creative / New Media industries: reflecting a potential growth sector in Brent and identified in previous research as having third highest level of music, arts and cultural activity in the Western Wedge sub-region221.

Food and drink manufacturing: represented within the borough by a significant and cluster of manufacturing and catering service businesses, serving both the Central Business Zone and Heathrow.

Healthcare (including medicine): given the key regional healthcare asset Central Middlesex Hospital sits on the border of Brent and Ealing; centres of teaching excellence in the Imperial College School of Medicine; and Brent Emergency Care and Diagnostic Centre.

Hotels and restaurants (general tourism): due to Brent’s growing presence as a visitor location, linked to Wembley, and the borough’s cultural assets and festivals. Wembley will continue to grow as a strategic cultural, conference, entertainment and leisure led centre of regional and national significance.

Transport and communications: the London Plan identifies that London needs to develop a modern sustainable distribution centre serving London and delivering sustainable local employment opportunities222, and recognises Park Royal’s potential to meet modern logistics and waste management requirements223.

Wholesale and retail: supporting the future of vibrant town centres; and linked to Brent’s tourism offer and night-time economy.

Low Carbon and environmental technologies: The LEA analysis also looks at opportunities linked to the Low Carbon including initial findings from research undertaken by the LDA during 2010, providing enterprise data on employment and turnover within Brent.

The final section of the LEA covers land-use, and in the light of the industrial sector analysis a spatial review of developments within the borough, including Wembley, Park Royal, priority areas including key town centres, and the environment around the North Circular.

3.13.1 Business services

Description The sector has a broad definition, including real estate activities, legal and accounting services, management consultancy, architectural and engineering services, and research and development.

As its name suggests it provides a service primarily to other businesses with only 1 per cent of output going to end consumers. Some of these services have been considered as parts of popular groupings such as knowledge intensive services and creative industries.

Significance Business services have grown strongly in the UK over the past two decades. Growth of business services reflects greater economic specialisation at a national and international level and shows an increasing ability and willingness of firms to outsource activities formerly undertaken in-house (e.g. cleaning or accounting). By contracting out operations previously undertaken in-house to business services, firms can focus on their core activities and may benefit from more specialised, productive input than they could generate themselves. Growth in business services also reflects the emergence of new service sectors such as computer services and software development.

Business services firms are both innovators themselves and also support innovative activities of other businesses. Software developers are often at the forefront of technological development, while many professional services (such as management consultancy) are actively working with clients internationally to introduce new techniques and thinking into their firms.

221 222 223

Tom Fleming Creative Consultancy (2005): The Western Wedge: Assets, Challenges and the Way Ahead Source: The London Plan and Transport for London (2007): London Freight Plan. Sustainable Freight Distribution Plan for London Source: GLA (2008): The London Plan CLES Consulting

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London is the driving force behind the UK business services industry, serving both the domestic and international market â&#x20AC;&#x201C; supporting the financial services industry. Londonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s (and the UKâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s) economic growth has been driven by the rapid expansion of the sector over the last twenty years including significant growth within:

Accountancy: Around 66,000 people are employed in London in accounting and related services. The sector is dominated by four firms although most of the major firms have offices in the city. The services that accounting firms offer include auditing, tax planning, corporate finance and business recovery services.

Legal services: London is one of the two leading centres for international legal services, the other being New York. Based on revenue, three of the top five law firms in the world are international law firms based in London. London is also a leading centre for international dispute resolution.

Management consultancy: This is another rapidly expanding area of business services and, similar to accountancy, encompasses a range of activities. The main areas of consultancy are outsourcing and IT, accounting for two-thirds of consultancy fee income in London.

In addition to large businesses, big accountants and management consultancies, London is well represented by a range of small and medium sized firms that are leaders in their field. London is also home to clusters of computing services including multimedia publishing, multimedia services, software services, systems integration, and vision and sound equipment. Although London competes for business services with other UK cities, London is unique in the UK in terms of its linkages to other cities and business centres around the world, and so in terms of its international orientation of both the financial and business services sectors.

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Local performance Brent’s business services sector generated an estimated £543m224 in 2008, the second largest sector in terms of economic output and employment in the borough; and contributed an estimated 16,800 employees (14.9% of all employment) within Brent’s economy.

Levels of employment in the sector in Brent have remained static over the last five years,225 compared with growth in West London of 2.0 per cent per annum and 3.3 per cent in London.

However, forecasts suggest that employment in the sector will grow within the borough, illustrated below.

Productivity levels per head of employment in 2008 (£32,309) in business services fell short of those across West London (£41,113), London (£44,909) and the national average (£38,386), reflecting lower value activities taking place within the borough. Whilst the City of London clearly skews national and regional rates, particularly in this sector, it is clear that business services firms in Brent would benefit enormously from improving productivity rates going forward.

Further sub-sector detail, shown in Table 63: suggests that the main local employment opportunities are in legal, accounting, business and consultancy. However the majority of high productive business services activity is concentrated in London’s CAZ. Local prospects would be more likely to centre on back office and support service functions, competing with a range of locations across London and the UK. It should also be noted however that the proportion of employees in labour recruitment inflates the overall size of the sector as it also includes employment in other parts of London (which may run through the books of firms based in Brent). Interestingly almost 2,000 employees in the business services sector are employed within computer services, with the majority 1,300 employed in software consultancy and software / digital media supply (e.g. DVD, music), with local concentrations in both Wembley and Park Royal.

Table 63: Business services sector – key data Business services

West London

Brent

London

UK

Level 2008

Location quotient

Change 2003-2008

%pa Change

Employment

16,800

0.8

<50

0.0

2.0

3.3

3.2

GVA

£543m

-

£32m

1.2

4.8

4.9

5.8

Main sub-sectors in Brent in 2008 (employee numbers – rounded to 100)

Employees

Change 2003-2008

LQ London=1

741 : Legal, accounting, business and management consultancy; holdings

2,500

0

0.4

748 : Miscellaneous business activities not elsewhere classified

1,600

300

0.7

745 : Labour recruitment and provision of personnel

1,600

-700

0.4

747 : Industrial cleaning

1,500

500

0.6

722 : Software consultancy and supply

1,300

500

0.6

702 : Letting of own property

1,000

100

1.3

Future forecast

% per annum change 2003-2008

Brent: Employment baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010) Brent: GVA baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010)

+5,600 +£347m

London’s employment growth in the decade ahead is forecast to be dominated by continued expansion of the business services sector. Similar to the past decade before the recession, subsectors such as legal activities, software, market research and advertising etc, are predicted to drive net job creation in business services.

Within Brent, business services are forecast to grow (i.e. under ‘policy-off’ forecasts reflecting a continuation of market trends across West London), creating the majority of new jobs within the borough, with a net increase of 5,600 jobs over the next decade, and an additional £347m GVA per annum in the local economy by 2020. However risks to continued growth of the sector in Brent, relate to competition from commercial property locations (across outer London and the UK), levels of local labour market skills, and the need to ensure that public transport connects local employment growth areas to residential areas in the borough.

224 225

Assuming GVA per employee productivity levels in the broader communications sector However stronger growth was seen in Brent looking back over a longer time-frame to 1998 CLES Consulting

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In terms of geographical distribution, the highest concentrations of business services jobs (excluding financial services) are concentrated in Soho and the West End, around Holborn, and have spread south of the river to riverside parts of Southwark and Lambeth. However there are a number of back office locations around London, including Brent, which are home to a number of business service sector firms around Wembley, shown in Figure 79:, again suggesting that there may be the potential to increase employment in this area, but there would be likely to be significant competition from other locations within the CAZ and across London.

Figure 79: Business services in London (number of employees), 2008

226

Number of employees

Figure 80: Business services in London (percentage of total employment), 2008

227

Percentage of total employees

226 227

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 (map includes financial and business services) Ibid CLES Consulting

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3.13.2 Construction

Description The Construction sector is composed of two types of firm: contractors and consultants. Contractors are companies such as house builders, plumbers and scaffolders, and these are dominated by SMEs with few employees. Consultants include professional occupations such as architects, civil engineers and quantity surveyors. The statistical analysis included in this section focuses on contractors, with data on engineering and architectural consultants included in the business services sector.

Significance The UK construction industry is among the strongest in the world and is a major deliverer of key Government programmes. With the increase in private finance to public sector project over the last decade, British consultants and contractors are well positioned to offer skills and experience gained through PFI projects, and can also provide high-tech solutions to environmental, transport and building projects. While the UK construction industry has a number of major businesses in civil engineering, commercial developments and large-scale house building, it is still characterised by small businesses and self-employment. The sector showed stronger growth in the UK during the third quarter of 2010. In the year since the recession ended, construction has grown by 11 per cent. Looked at over the longer term, construction was one of the sectors that suffered the most in the recession and so has the most scope to grow in the recovery. London's construction output is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2 to 3 per cent to 2012,228 faster than any other region in the UK. It has also received a boost from the work needed for the London 2012 Olympics.

Local performance The sector contributed £348m GVA to Brent’s economy in 2008, accounting for 7.9 per cent of total output in the borough; and 4 per cent of the sectors total output in London. It is the sixth largest contributor in terms of GVA to Brent’s economy. Significant public and private sector investment has supported GVA growth in recent years, as the borough has witnessed extensive construction programmes, from the large scale comprehensive redevelopment of several housing estates, to the rebuilding of Wembley Stadium and the associated major refurbishment of Wembley Park Station. In 2008, Brent construction firms employed 9,500 people,229 and between 2003 and 2008 employment grew by 0.6 per cent per annum, slower than the rate for both London (1.3%pa) and the UK average (2.6%). GVA grew at 0.7 per cent p.a. over the same period; slower than the London (1.5%pa) and UK (1.7%pa) averages. However productivity was higher than the UK average, standing at £36,664 per head in employment, greater than the UK figure of £32,839 per head. The sector is expected to continue to support growth within the borough, with a pipeline of future development and regeneration schemes that is likely to further benefit the construction industry and provide a better range of housing and employment opportunities in some of Brent’s most deprived areas. Local developers have made significant commitment to the future of the area, in particular linked to the continuing development of Wembley. Baseline forecasts suggest that the sector could deliver a net in year increase of 300 jobs and £75m more GVA per annum by 2020.

Table 64: Construction sector – key data Construction

230

West London

Brent Level 2008

Location quotient

Change 2003-08

%pa Change

Employment

9,500

1.2

300

0.6

2.0

GVA

£348m

-

£12.8m

0.7

London

% per annum change 2003-2008 1.3

2.6

2.8

1.5

1.7

Employees

Change 2003-2008

LQ London=1

452 : Building of complete construction; civil engineering

3,000

-300

2.1

454 : Building completion

1,000

500

1.8

453 : Building installation

1,000

100

1.0

Estimate of self-employed (various trades)

4,300

0.0

-

Main sub-sectors in Brent in 2008 (employee numbers – rounded to 100)

Future forecast

Brent: Employment baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010) Brent: GVA baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010)

228 229 230

UK

London’s Economic Outlook: Spring 2010 The GLA’s medium-term planning projections Figure includes employees and significant number of self-employed Excluding architectural & engineering consultancy services; figures include both employees and self-employment CLES Consulting

+300 +£75m

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Figure 81: Construction in London (number of employees), 2008

231

Number of employees

Figure 82: Construction in London (percentage of total employment), 2008

232

Percentage of total employees

Growth has already created local employment within the borough, as illustrated above. However, as reflected in the employment statistics in the LEA, most employment opportunities are for part-time or casual work; further work should be undertaken to explore how these can be developed into more ‘permanent and/or ‘flexible pool’ positions. The growth in construction is also linked to rising employment opportunities for local security positions, however recent interviews in the Assessment suggested that the licence is proving too expensive for many potential job candidates.

231 232

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 Ibid CLES Consulting

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3.13.3 Creative / New Media industries

Description The term is applied to related sectors with creativity at their core. Creative / New Media industries have the potential for wealth and job creation through the generation and exploitation of intellectual property. They are involved in conceiving, producing and disseminating creative goods and services, both to the public and to other businesses. The sector is comprised of a diverse range of subsectors and creative fields, from high-value employment and value added fields such as advertising and marketing, architecture, broadcasting, film industries, and digital media to more traditional, relatively lower paid, cultural fields of crafts, visual arts (painting, sculpture), performing arts (theatre, opera, concerts, and dance). Industry sub-sectors included in the analysis in this LEA align with those used previously with DCMS and cover the following sub-sectors:

Advertising; Architecture; Arts and Antiques; Fashion; Film and Video; Leisure Software; Music and Performance; Publishing; Radio and TV.

Significance The creative industries sector is being promoted at the national level as an important component of a new “knowledge economy”. The sector is important for several reasons including: parts of the sector offer direct higher value employment and potential links to the higher education sector; and, a strong creative and cultural offer has the potential to make an area attractive to business, investors and people wishing to visit and/or locate in the borough.

The sector plays a critical role in driving forward knowledge-intensive economic development and many linkages exist between creative sectors and other sectors of economic activity. Some of the world’s most successful creative businesses are located in London and contribute to the wider UK’s economy.

Much of London’s success in the creative industries stems from its historic role as a global economic hub, not only because of the number and quality of its writers, artists, musicians, designers and other artistic talent, but also because of all the professionals and intermediaries, such as publishers, exhibitors, commissioners, distributors, financiers, brokers and agents. It is as much through their skills, management expertise and entrepreneurial drive that London’s creative industries retain their competitive edge, developing products and services that are consumed across the world. London’s emergence as a global financial centre in the last two decades has also led to a substantial growth in creative and digital media services, such as design and advertising, which provide support to major clients within the city.

Three London boroughs, Westminster (Soho), Camden and Hammersmith and Fulham contain 40 per cent of all creative industry enterprises. The overall pattern of location is characteristically a ‘South-West Stripe’ stretching from Islington down through Camden, Westminster, Kensington and Fulham out to the Outer London boroughs of Kingston, Richmond, Hounslow and central parts of Brent, shown in Figure 83:. The greatest growth in absolute job numbers took place in the boroughs immediately surrounding or near Westminster, notably Islington, Camden, Kensington, Hammersmith and Fulham and Lewisham, all of which gained more than 2,000 jobs. Westminster itself appears to have been losing creative industry jobs. Both these tendencies draw attention to a key factor influencing creative industry location, namely office rents.

Concentrations of digital media companies are located across West London, which also includes the media cluster around White City , and proximity to the West End. Within Brent there are significant clusters of performing arts, centres of dance, music production, fashion and artisan activities - in particular within Kilburn and Brondesbury (for example which includes the Tricycle theatre and gallery, European school of modern music, and Lumiere); and local community cultural facilities such as the community gallery and venue hire facilities at Willesden Green Library Centre, as shown in Figure 84:.

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The borough is also home to storage and warehousing supporting the sector, for example: film and music studios; lighting management; prop retail, manufacturing and storage; all located within Park Royal and South Wembley. Improvements to the area’s environment are a key part of delivering this aspiration. Better access to finance and local incubator space will support the growth of this cluster which has the potential to contribute to local entrepreneurship and jobs.

In addition to Wembley Arena – other parts of West London - Ealing Studio’s, Riverside Studio’s and the BBC’s White City development (with plans to develop significant space for SMEs - creative/digital firms) form the foundation of a strong media and creative industries sector with performance venues such as the Apollo Hammersmith and the Shepherds Bush Empire. As shown in Figure 85:, the northern part of Brent (and Harrow) is home to clusters of employment in software design, whereas radio, television and media production predominate most of Central and West London.

Figure 83: Creative / New Media sector employees in London, 2008

233

Number of employees

Figure 84: Concentration of music and performing arts employees in London, 2008

234

Location Quotient

233 234

Source: GLA Economics (2010) Working Paper 40: London’s creative workforce Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry and DCMS CLES Consulting

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Figure 85: Concentration of software employees in London, 2008 235 Location Quotient

Figure 86: Concentration of radio and television related employees in London, 2008

236

Location Quotient

235 236

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry and DCMS Ibid CLES Consulting

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Figure 87: Concentration of designer fashion employees in London, 2008

237

Location Quotient

Local performance Brent’s Creative / New Media sector generated an estimated £240m in 2008; and contributed an estimated 5,000 employees within Brent’s economy. The sector saw an additional 400 jobs created between 2003 and 2008, growing faster in Brent (1.9%pa) than the West London (1.6%pa) and UK (1.3%pa) averages. Baseline employment forecasts suggest that the sector could deliver a net in year increase of 1,000 jobs by 2020, and an increase of £47m GVA per annum.

Table 65: Creative / New Media sector – key data (includes self-employed) Creative/ New Media Level

Location quotient

Change 2003-08

%pa Change

Employment

5,000

1.0

+400

1.9

GVA

£240m

Future forecast

237 238

West London

Brent

238

London

UK

% per annum change 2003-2008 1.6

2.1

1.3

Comparator GVA data not available for other areas.

Brent: Employment baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010)

+1,000

Brent: GVA baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010)

+£47m

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry and DCMS CLES estimate assuming GVA per employee productivity levels in the broader communications sector CLES Consulting

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Further recent research239 suggests that there are over 1,500 creative industry enterprises within Brent, representing 3 per cent of all enterprises within London. Table 66: shows that the majority (36.7%) of creative /new media enterprise businesses in Brent relate to the production of leisure software (including DVD production and distribution, and software coding).

Architecture

Arts and Antiques

Fashion

Film and Video

Leisure Software

Music and Performance

Publishing

Radio and TV

Total

240

Advertising

Table 66: Creative / New Media business enterprises by sub-sector, 2008

3,855

2,335

2,560

5,005

3,000

18,605

14,565

3,120

3,095

56,140

% of total

6.9

4.2

4.6

8.9

5.3

33.1

25.9

5.6

5.5

100.0

number

530

265

355

650

500

3,870

2130

410

635

9,345

% of total

5.7

2.8

3.8

7.0

5.4

41.4

22.8

4.4

6.8

100.0

number

80

35

50

135

110

550

370

55

115

1,500

% of total

5.3

2.3

3.3

9.0

7.3

36.7

24.7

3.7

7.7

100.0

number London West London Brent

Table 67: shows that the majority (28.7%) of employees within the sector (compared to the number of enterprises) are currently working within the production of leisure software; 14.7 per cent are employed within the musical performance sub-sector; and over one-in-ten (13.2%) are employed within film and video production.

Brent accounts for one-in-ten employees working within the film and video sub-sector across all London. One of the key factors driving the success of West London’s creative industries is cultural diversity. The capability of local businesses to communicate in a great diversity of languages across cultures means that creative industries can flourish on a global scale. In particular Asian Creative Industries have been shown to make a growing contribution to the creative and cultural industries sector,241 with the potential to improve the competitiveness of the local economy in Brent.

Advertising

Architecture

Arts and Antiques

Fashion

Film and Video

Leisure Software

Music and Performance

Publishing

Radio and TV

Total

Table 67: Creative / New Media employees by sub-sector, 2008 242

35,971

17,774

11,647

16,947

16,913

78,303

42,491

62,601

38,511

321,495

% of total

11.2

5.5

3.6

5.3

5.3

24.4

13.2

19.5

12.0

100.0

number

4,327

1,846

3,768

1,849

3,649

13,986

4,622

5,217

18,706

57,970

% of total

7.5

3.2

6.5

3.2

6.3

24.1

8.0

9.0

32.3

100.0

number

161

286

162

368

605

1,299

672

371

663

4,587

% of total

3.5

6.2

3.5

8.0

13.2

28.3

14.7

8.1

14.5

100.0

number London West London Brent

The Park Royal prospectus recognises that the TV/ film cluster is well established in Park Royal and its surrounding area, anchored by the BBC’s presence nearby at White City and the concentration of media and studio facilities companies located on the estate. Park Royal Partnerships (PRPs) objective is to foster inter-company collaboration, ensure the supply of suitable accommodation and improve local facilities together with amenities. A key aim outlines within PRPs prospectus is to set up a Media Village that will bring together a range of creative / new media industries and complement the activities proposed for the White City Opportunity Area.

239 240 241 242

GLA Economics (2010) Working Paper 40: London’s creative workforce Ibid Mayor of London (2003): Play it right Asian Creative Industries in London GLA Economics (2010) Working Paper 40: London’s creative workforce CLES Consulting

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3.13.4 Food and drink manufacturing

Description The sector definition includes all aspects included in the production and processing of food and drink products. Industry sub-sectors included in the analysis also cover the production, processing and preserving of meat and fish products; processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables; manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats; dairy products; grain mill products; starches and starch products; and the manufacture of beverages.243

Significance The food and drink industry is a core element of the UK manufacturing economy, representing over 15 per cent of manufacturing turnover and employment. Through the recent recession it was the sector that reduced its output the least and has returned to pre-recession output levels the fastest.244 The sector also has impacts on the UK economy far beyond its significant contribution to economic output and employment. The UK sector has a large R&D spend and generates a significant number of new products each year.245 Food and drink manufacturing in London is the capital’s second largest and fastest growing manufacturing sector (in GVA terms). The Mayor’s Food Strategy aims to improve London’s offer and reduce the environmental impact of the food industry.

It prioritises actions to provide entrepreneurial and business support, including support for collaboration where appropriate and training/skills programs, especially in marketing. Recent research shows that the capital's food and drink production industry,246 there are 870 businesses in London's food and drink supply chain worth a total estimated turnover of £3.3 billion. The same research also suggested that 94 per cent of the businesses in the sector are small and medium-sized enterprises with a turnover of less than £1 million each. Nine-out-of-ten businesses are SMEs, typically with a turnover of less than £1m. A further two-thirds of these SME’s describe themselves as "craft businesses", with an emphasis on skilled manual labour to manufacture products. Leading the way in sustainability, a mere one-in-ten of London's food and drink production companies supply national retailers, with the vast majority servicing local retailers.

Local performance The sector generated247 an estimated £262m in 2008, the largest manufacturing sector in the borough terms of both economic output and employment in Brent (engineering sector is the second largest); and contributes an estimated 5,000 employees within Brent’s economy. However levels of employment in the sector have declined over the last five years, declining quicker than the national average, in response to increasing pressure on prices (for example rising energy and wheat/grain prices), and greater investment in capital required to increase productivity, in particular within food processing industries. GVA per employee stands at £52,049, the sector is therefore the second most productive in the borough after the financial services sector.

Table 68: Food and drink manufacturing sector – key data Food and drink

West London

Brent Level

Location quotient

Change 2003-2008

%pa Change

Employment

5,000

3.3

-600

-2.3

-0.1

GVA

£262m

-

-£20m

-1.5

London

UK

% per annum change 2003-2008 -0.4

-1.5

1.1

0.7

0.2

Employees

Change 2003-2008

LQ London=1

158 : Manufacture of other food products

2,000

-200

6.8

153 : Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables

1,300

-1,000

22.0

159 : Manufacture of beverages

800

-100

9.5

151 : Production, processing and preserving of meat and meat products

400

300

4.4

Main sub-sectors in Brent 2008 (employee numbers – rounded to 100)

Future forecast

Brent: Employment baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010)

-1,000

Brent: GVA baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010)

+£16m

243 We also include catering services (defined in SIC2007) in the narrative, however time-series data do not exist so the sub-sector is excluded from the data table 244 Similar to trends within previous recessions where eating-in and snack-foods remain resilient 245 Source: Cambridge University (2010): The value of food and drink manufacturing to the UK 246 London’s Food and drink sector mapping assessment 247 Assuming GVA per employee productivity levels in the broader communications sector

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Key clusters of food manufacturing are located within Park Royal (home to the Park Royal Food Innovation Centre). Here the sector accounts for almost three quarters of employment248 based in 250 companies, and representing almost a third (30%) of London's food and drink production.

These companies produce a diverse range of food products which are distributed both to Greater London and other international destinations, primarily via Heathrow Airport. Food production is also intricately linked with the advertising, printing and packaging, distribution and logistics sectors.

Forecasts suggest that employment in the sector will continue to decline by up to 1,000 jobs over the next decade; however the sector is forecast to contribute up to £16m per annum more in Brent’s economy by 2020, reflecting growing productivity levels within the sector, and the sector is still forecast to employ up to 4,000 employees by 2020.

3.13.5 Healthcare (including medicine)

Description The sector comprises health service activities delivered by the likes of the NHS. The sector also includes the development of therapeutic and diagnostic treatments and the means of delivering them; and the provision of social care.

Significance Healthcare is a significant employer nationally, with the NHS providing the bulk of jobs. However, the sector is especially important in Brent. Close links exist between hospitals and centres for medical excellence across West London, as well as a growing presence linking higher education to the sector. The Central Middlesex Hospital offers services in general medicine, general surgery, urology including orthopaedics, ENT, ophthalmology, oral surgery, obstetrics, gynaecology, cardiology and gastroenterology. The hospital has particular experience in the care of patients with conditions aggravated by deprivation, specifically TB, diabetes and coronary heart disease, and is a leader in the research and treatment of sickle-cell disease. As well as high-tech healthcare services and teaching, healthcare provides significant numbers of jobs within the borough. It also has the potential to support further integration of care services with local authority provision and services, such as support into work, benefits advice, financial advice and guidance (for example a poly-clinic model aligned to the needs of residents).249 A number of areas around the UK are currently supporting activities to engage GP’s further in wider economic development, including tackling worklessness and the health and well-being agenda.250

Local performance The sector contributed £404m GVA to Brent’s economy in 2008, accounting for 9.2 per cent of total output in the borough; and 3 per cent of the sectors total output in London. It is the fifth largest contributor in terms of GVA to Brent’s economy. In 2008, the sector employed 13,700 people, and between 2003 and 2008 employment grew by 1.6 per cent per annum, slower than the rate for both London (2.1%pa) and the UK average (2.1%). GVA grew at 4.9 per cent per annum over the same period; faster than the London (4.3%pa) and UK (2.9%pa) averages – representing investment and the addition of high value healthcare activities in the borough.

Table 69: Healthcare sector – key data (including social care and medicine) Healthcare

West London

Brent Change 2003-2008

London

UK

Level 2008

Location quotient

Employment

13,700

1.0

1,018

1.6

1.1

2.1

2.1

GVA

£404m

-

£86.4m

4.9

4.4

4.3

2.9

Employees

Change 2003-2008

LQ London=1

851 : Human health activities

8,700

500

1.6

853 : Social work activities

3,400

500

1.1

Main sub-sectors in Brent (employee numbers – rounded to 100)

%pa Change

251

% per annum change 2003-2008

Brent: Employment baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010) Future forecast

Brent: GVA baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010)

248

-700 +£2m

Park Royal Partnership Opportunity Area Planning Framework However recent HMG policy thinking reflects a shift towards key centres of high-tech care, alongside potentially more devolved resources to individual, or consortia, of GP surgeries 250 Source: CLES (2010): A review of health and worklessness support in Greater Manchester 251 Excluding architectural & engineering consultancy services; figures include both employees and self-employment 249

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Central Middlesex’s role will evolve and change as the Healthcare for London programme develops and government policy changes. In the meantime Central Middlesex will benefit from a number of developments over the next twelve months including growth in operating capacity so that more patients can receive orthopaedic and other surgical treatments; and an Urgent Care Centre is planned252 to open alongside A&E so that GPs can see the patients whose need is for primary rather than emergency care.

3.13.6 Hotels and restaurants

Description The hotels and restaurants sector encompasses hotels, guest houses, B&Bs, short-term apartment lettings, restaurants and bars, sports centred, conference and exhibition centres, libraries, museums and entertainment activities.253

Significance The tourism and leisure industry is described by the DCMS as one of Britain’s biggest employers and a flourishing industry.’ 254 According to this the industry generates some £85 billion per year in the national economy and is directly responsible for 1.4 million jobs, or 1 job in every 20. Of this £85 billion £17 billion comes from overseas visits to the UK, but the majority is spent by domestic residents with £44 billion spent on day trips and £23 billion spent on overnight visits. London is one of the most popular destinations for international leisure and business travellers. It is England’s most visited destination by both domestic and overseas visitors.

Over 26 million visitors come to London every year and the tourism industry has a key role to play in shaping the capital’s economy. It is worth over £16 billion per annum and employs 285,000 people.

Overseas visitors spent an estimated £8 to 9 billion in London. Of the 32.8 million international tourists that the UK received in 2007, almost half (15.3 million) visited London.

Domestic overnight spending contributes an additional £2 billion to London’s economy. The forthcoming Olympic Games offers London a significant incentive and opportunity to show off the city and key assets such as Wembley, both to visitors during the time they will be here - and through the media to a massive worldwide audience. London has the chance to reinforce its status as a first class visitor destination and advance its standing in new overseas markets on the back of the Games.

West London is home to the UK’s premier international gateway, Heathrow Airport, as well as the high profile exhibition venues of Earl’s Court and Olympia Group. Wembley Stadium has been developed and West London is also home to Chelsea, Fulham, Queen’s Park Rangers and Brentford football club as well as Queen’s club, the venue for the traditional pre‐Wimbledon tennis tournament.

Local performance The sector directly contributed an estimated 7,100 employees within Brent’s economy in 2008, and a direct contribution in GVA of £141m (excluding associated sectors such as transport, and food manufacturing, and sports venue management etc).

London’s Local Area Tourism Impact (LATI) model255 takes London-level data from the major national surveys (International Passenger Survey, UK Tourism Survey) and new data on day visitors from an omnibus survey, and distributes it across the boroughs. The results from the LATI provide borough-level estimates of tourism volume and value to inform tourism policy development, investment and marketing. Broad estimates of hospitality and tourism related spending estimate that Brent receives a total of £304m tourism spending, £97m of this from overseas visitors256 shown in Table 70: below.

252

At the time of writing the LEA The analysis also makes reference to the wider tourism economy in London and Brent including visitor spend and employment across a wider range of related service sectors 254 Source: DCMS (2009): Winning: A Tourism Strategy for 2012 and Beyond 255 Designed and built for the LDA 256 Source: GLA (2007): London Local Area Tourism Impact Model (LATI), estimates for the London Borough of Brent 253

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Table 70: Value and volume of tourism spending / activity for Brent, 2007 Brent Day visits (3+hrs) Overnight visits Spending

Overseas visitors 182,000 £97m

Domestic visitors 114,000 £25m

257

Day visitors 2.7m £182m

Totals 2.7m 296,000 £304m

Brent received an estimated 2.75 million visitors in 2007, the majority of these are day visitors with only 296,000 overnight visitors. Research258 indicates that 3.5 million visitors arrive in Brent annually, with the majority of these visiting the stadium:

Wembley Stadium: 2.4 million visitors annually; Wembley Arena: 600,000 visitors annually; Fountain Studios: 30,000 visitors annually; Neasden Temple: 500,000 visitors annually.

The sector saw an additional 400 jobs created within the last two years. Employment in the hotels and restaurants sector declined by 12.2 per cent, between 2003 and 2008, quicker than the average for West London (-2.9%pa). Productivity levels in the sector are significantly higher in Brent (£19,898) compared with the national average (£17,917), but lag the average seen in West London (£23,384) and London (£27,528).

Baseline forecasts suggest that the sector could deliver a net in year increase of 400 jobs by 2020, and an increase of £24m GVA per annum.

Table 71: Hotels and restaurants sector – key data Hospitality and tourism

West London

Brent

London

Level 2008

Location quotient

Change 2003-08

%pa Change

Employment

7,100

1.0

-6,500

-12.2

-2.9

0.1

0.6

GVA

£141m

1.0

-£61m

-7.0

4.3

6.6

2.2

Employees

Change 2003-2008

LQ London=1

555 : Canteens and Catering

2,865

-5,714

2.3

553 : Restaurants

2,365

78

0.7

554 : Bars

839

-446

0.8

551 : Hotels

474

93

0.4

Sector

Main sub-sectors in Brent (employee numbers – rounded to 100)

% per annum change 2003-2008

Brent: Employment baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010) Future forecast

257 258 259

UK

Brent: GVA baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010)

259

CLES estimate assuming GVA per employee productivity levels in the hotel and leisure sectors Source: GLA - London tourism satellite accounts CLES estimate based on recent trend growth and using GVA per employee for hotels and restaurants sector CLES Consulting

+400 +£24m

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133

Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s profile and tourism offer has improved significantly over the past 3 years. Improvements linked to the development and delivery of the UKâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s national football stadium - Wembley, a rapidly growing cultural and night-time economy (for example around Kilburn), the scale and diversity of local creative and cultural festivals, and the boroughâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s green infrastructure, including canals, parks and open spaces.

Opportunity also exists to develop the sector further in a way which supports both local business and the image of the area. From a review of relevant literature260 and interviews, local priorities include: 1)

continuing to develop a clear brand for the borough, building upon Wembley as a key asset, that can be promoted to visitors;

2)

promoting the cultural offer of the borough including diversity of communities, festivals and food, cultural tourism resulting from landmarks such as the ShriSwaminaryan Temple in Neasden, and events, both sporting and entertainment; and

3)

delivering key commercial developments which will result in demand generators for new hotels and that will attract visitors (both leisure and business visitors) to stay within Brent.

Many of the existing development proposals in the borough are likely to generate only day visitors at most. Further consideration should be given to the potential for an additional leisure attractions at Wembley (events with a broader appeal than sport, increasing use of the Arena) which can help generate more sustained patterns of demand to drive hotel demand all year round (the Wembley Stadium at present only generates visitors for around 35 days of the year). Initial priorities should be given to building a critical mass of leisure, hospitality, restaurant and bars in order to grow the day-time offer, before exploiting further potential to grow both the night-time and over-night offer.

Business visitors can also generate demand for hotel accommodation. However, a more substantial, better quality employment offer is required at Wembley for this to make a strong long-term impact on demand levels. Financial and business services sectors are most likely to generate demand for hotel accommodation and so local partners should consider the potential to develop this type of employment in Brent.261 There may be greater scope for the public sector to support the promotion of local sourcing opportunities (e.g. promote existing or develop new themed supplier directories) within the hospitality and tourism sector; and support for interventions which seek to ensure that local/regional SMEs are aware of those services which are being procured by competitive tender. The promotion of local sourcing also has the potential to achieve both economic and environmental policy objectives.

260 261

The West London Tourism Strategy and Action Plan, Regeneris (2009): Wembley hotels and tourism study for Brent Council CLES Consulting

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Figure 88: Hotels and restaurants in London (number of employees), 2008

262

Number of employees

Figure 89: Hotels and restaurants in London (percentage of total employment), 2008 263 Percentage of total employees

262 263

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry (map includes retailing) Ibid CLES Consulting

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3.13.7 Transport and communications

Description Transport and communications is made up of various and diverse sub-sectors. The transport sector incorporates the following industries: freight / air transport, cargo handling, storage and warehousing, national post and courier businesses and other supporting air transport activities.

Communications includes communications systems and postal services, information processing, digital and multimedia communications.

Significance The UK is home to one of the best third party logistics industries in Europe, with over 20,000 companies providing a range of services. New technology enables electronic tracking systems and smarter inventory control at every supply stage. In addition, the UKâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s road and rail infrastructure has allowed many companies to introduce value-added logistics services to their centralised distribution structure. Most destinations in continental Europe can be reached within one or two days, and transatlantic traffic is also swift.

An efficient transport and logistics sector is essential to supporting the wider London economy and is required to sustain future economic and demographic growth within and around London. It is vital to Londonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy not only as a generator of jobs and growth in its own right, but also as an enabler for all other industries. Park Royal remains uniquely situated to deliver consolidation solutions for delivery to London and Heathrow, allowing around the clock access for the largest vehicles - and to a potential break-bulk site, and has access to both rail and water. The projected rise in population and jobs in London over the next 20 years will require land for logistics distribution depots that can be strategically located to serve the capital in a sustainable and localised manner.

Figure 90: shows which London wards specialise in transport and logistics activity. In the West London these areas are predominantly in Heathrow, Park Royal, parts of Hillingdon and Hounslow.

Within the London context, logistics is a relatively low-qualified industry. Around 22 per cent of the logistics workforce has a degree or higher, considerably lower than the all-London figure of 46 per cent. Conversely, logistics is over-represented by those with NVQ level 3 or lower, and has double (15%) the all-industry level with no qualifications whatsoever. The sector also contains a high proportion of workers who were born outside the UK. These workers may have qualifications that donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t fit into the NVQ equivalence framework easily. Skills issues in the sector are primarily related to low numbers of applicants with the required skill levels, in particular gaps in customer handling, literacy, oral and written communication skills.

Figure 90: Transport and communications in London (number of employees), 2008

264

Number of employees

264

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry 2008 (map includes retailing) CLES Consulting

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136

Figure 91: Transport and communications in London (% of total employment), 2008 265 Percentage of total employees

Local performance The sector directly contributed an estimated 10,600 employees within Brent’s economy in 2008, and an estimated £496m266 by those employed in the sector; this corresponds to 7 per cent of the sector total within West London’s economy - illustrating Brent’s importance as a key logistics centre, linked to industrial sites and the area’s historical legacy as a hub within London’s transport infrastructure.

The sector saw an additional 600 jobs created within the course of the last five years in Brent.

Employment grew faster in Brent (1.2%pa) than the average for London (0.3%), and UK (0.2%pa).

GVA growth rates were higher than those for London and the national average, but lagged some way behind the average for West London; suggesting opportunity to capitalise on the growing clustering of communications activity in the area. Levels of productivity in Brent (£46,740 per head in employment) are broadly similar to the UK average, but remain behind the average in West London (£55,372 skewed by the airport) and London (£58,617 skewed by HQs of transport and communications companies). Baseline forecasts suggest that the sector could deliver a net in year increase of 1,000 jobs by 2020, and an increase of £170m GVA per annum.

Table 72: Transport and communications sector – key data Transport and communications

West London

Brent Level 2008

Location quotient

Change 2003-2008

%pa Change

Employment

10,600

1.6

+600

1.2%

1.6%

GVA

£496m

-

£81m

3.6%

% per annum change 2003-2008 0.2%

5.0%

2.8%

3.2%

Employees

Change 2003-2008

LQ London=1

602 : Other land transport - logistics

4,300

400

2.9

641 : Post and courier activities

1,400

-500

1.4

632 : Other supporting transport activities

900

500

0.9

642 : Telecommunications

900

100

0.9

631 : Cargo handling and storage

500

200

2.0

Brent: Employment baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010) Brent: GVA baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010)

266

UK

0.3%

Main sub-sectors in Brent (employee numbers – rounded to 100)

265

London

Source: ONS, Annual Business Inquiry 2008 CLES estimate assuming GVA per employee productivity levels in the hotel and leisure sectors CLES Consulting

+1,000 +£170m

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3.13.8 Wholesale and Retail

Description The wholesale and retail sector covers a wide range of sub-sectors including: food; clothing & footwear stores; DIY stores; music stores; furniture stores; health and beauty stores; and wholesale of goods for retailing.

Significance In 2009 UK retail sales were over £285 billion. The sector employed over 2.9 million people as at the end of December 2009, equating to 11% of the total UK workforce.267 Over the last five years employment in retailing has fallen; however the sector still remains an important employer and major contributor to UK economic output. The UK retail market has become increasingly polarised between the numerically dominant independent retailers and a handful of large corporate chains.

Independent retailing has been declining for several years (in terms of number and market share), while major chains have been growing substantially.

The retail offer in London ranges from the internationally renowned shopping centres of the West End and Knightsbridge, through town centres to out-of-centre retail and warehouse parks, to small local parades of shops. Consumers now also increasingly have the opportunity to shop from home via the internet. The West End is by a considerable margin the largest retail centre in London in terms of both floor-space and turnover. It attracts many visitors from the rest of the UK and from abroad and is one of a number of successful retail sites within Central London alongside Covent Garden, Knightsbridge, King’s Road and Kensington High Street.

In total there are around 200 town centres across London within which retail frequently plays an important part. Indeed, across London as a whole town centres account for around 40 per cent of total retail employment. ‘Out-of-centre’ retail in London consists of shopping centres at Brent Cross and Westfield (White City), together with at least 50 retail warehouse parks (selling clothes, furniture and electrical goods for instance), stand alone supermarkets and ‘Big Box’ stores (DIY stores or furniture retailers for example). A number of mega-shopping centres exist outside, for example Lakeside and Bluewater, which attract many London residents.

There have been many changes within UK retail, underpinned by growing consumer expenditure, changes in transport and planning regulations, and advances in technology. In particular, London has witnessed:

a decline in retail within small town centres, and growth in large centres / out-of-town retail; an increase in out-of-town retail during the 1980s and 1990s; increased retail consolidation, particularly in the grocery sector; a decline in the number of small retailers; increased efforts amongst retailers to increase their links to the leisure economy; changes in retailers management of supply chain and logistics issues; challenges to existing retail formats in response to the growth of internet shopping; increased acceptance of the usefulness of retail to regeneration projects.

Local performance: The retail sector is large and diverse, and whilst it has a comprehensive presence in London’s Central Zone, Brent benefits from a number of long established town centres. The sector generated an estimated £598m in the borough in 2008, the second largest sector in terms of economic output.

The sector contributed an estimated 21,800 employees within Brent’s economy, more than any other sector in the local economy. However levels of employment in the sector have fallen over the last five years (despite stronger growth if the analysis is over a longer time frame back to 1990s), compared with growth in West London (0.7%pa), London (0.1%pa), and the UK average (0.0%).

Baseline forecasts suggest that employment in the sector will grow within the borough (reflecting the longer-term growth trend), growing by up to 600 jobs up until the end of 2020. Although the sector contributes significant GVA and local employment, levels of productivity (£27,466 per head in employment) still remain behind the London average (£33,865). Baseline forecasts suggest a net in year increase of 600 jobs by 2020, and an increase of £162m GVA per annum.

267

British Retail Consortium CLES Consulting

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Table 73: Wholesale and retail, 2003 to 2008 Wholesale and retail

West London

Brent Level 2008

Location quotient

Change

%pa Change

Employment

21,800

1.2

-2,200

-1.9

0.7

GVA

£598m

-

-£12.8m

-0.4

London

UK

% per annum change 2003-2008 0.1

0.0

3.3

2.0

2.5

Employees

Change 2003-2008

LQ London=1

521 : Retail sale in non-specialised stores

4,300

-100

1.3

524 : Other retail sale of new goods in specialised stores

4,000

-300

1.0

514 : Wholesale of household goods

2,500

-700

2.2

513 : Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco

2,300

300

3.4

518 : Wholesale of machinery, equipment and supplies

1,000

-800

2.1

503 : Sale of motor vehicle parts and accessories

900

300

4.7

522 : Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores

800

<50

1.8

Main sub-sectors in Brent in 2008 (employee numbers – rounded to 100)

Brent: Employment baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010)

+600

Future forecast Brent: GVA baseline forecast (net in year change in levels 2020 vs 2010)

+£162m

The turnover performance of existing centres within Brent can be measured by their sales density, expressed as ‘£ per square metre net’.268 This gives an indication of how successfully a centre is trading. A high sales density normally indicates that a centre that is trading strongly, but this must be considered in the context of the centre’s position in the local and wider shopping hierarchy.

Table 74: shows sales densities of the existing centres within Brent, focussing focus on the centres with a meaningful retailing market share within the borough. Wembley achieves a comparison sales density of some £6,400 per square metre and Kilburn achieves £6,600 per square metre. This shows a healthy performance of both centres, albeit the level for Wembley is slightly higher than would be expected in light of its position in West London’s retail hierarchy. Wembley remains the main shopping destination within Brent. However, it is clear that a relatively low proportion of local residents do their main shopping in Wembley.

Brent's centres do not operate in isolation but are influenced and affected by neighbouring retail locations such as Brent Cross, which is a regional shopping centre. Harrow and Ealing are neighbouring Metropolitan centres which will continue also to attract some of the retail expenditure of Brent’s residents, as will Westfield White City and London’s principal shopping destination - the West End. The presence of major retail centres in a number of centres surrounding the Brent boundary suggests a limited opportunity for major retail development within the borough. However, there may be some opportunity to build on the Wembley offer, and support the continued success of Kilburn and other town centres in providing retail centres servicing their local populations.

Table 74: Comparison sales densities, 2008 Area Wembley Kilburn Burnt Oak Cricklewood Harlesden Kingsbury Willesden Green Ealing Road Wembley Park Colindale Neasden

268

Net floor space 13,927 15,043 9,212 17,322 8,932 5,544 6,301 2,570 4,212 1,904

Total turnover from study area (£m) 89.5 99.2 26.9 79.7 12.7 15.4 47.6 7.2 12.7 14.6 7.7

Calculated by dividing the total comparison turnover of the centre by its net comparison floor-space CLES Consulting

Retail sales density (£ per sqm) 6,424 6,596 2,921 4,600 1,419 2,781 7,554 2,811 3,469 4,026

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3.13.9 Low Carbon and environmental technologies

Description A singular definition of low carbon jobs and sectors is difficult to find. For the purposes of this LEA we have taken a narrower version of the definition used by the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) and used in the LDA’s recent assessment report on ‘Low Carbon and Environmental Goods and Services’269 which includes the following sub-sectors: Energy efficiency (energy management and building technologies; energy supply (alternative fuels, geothermal, biomass); renewable energy (solar, wind, wave and tidal, hydro-electric); waste and waste to energy production (waste management, and recovery and recycling).270

Significance The UK is the world’s sixth largest low carbon and environmental economy, with 3.5 per cent of global market share. The Environmental sector accounts for £22.3 billion (21%) of total UK market value, Renewable Energy for £31.1 billion (29%), and the Emerging Low Carbon sector for £53.3 billion (50%). The ‘newer’ sectors of Renewable Energy and Emerging Low Carbon are therefore significantly higher in value than the more established Environmental sector. Approximately half of the value of the overall ‘local carbon - environmental’ sector (48%) lies in the extended value and supply chain activities. The specialist (i.e. non‐supply chain) market values for the UK are £10.8 billion for the environmental sector, £17.9 billion for renewable energy technologies and £26.6 billion for the emerging low carbon sector. Six products and services: Alternative fuels (17.3%); building technologies (12.1%); alternative fuels for vehicles (11.8%); wind (10.7%); geothermal (8.7%); and waste water treatment (7.4%) ‐ together account for 60% of total market value. Other activities, while currently relatively low in market value, have within them the potential for new technologies to be developed and brought to market in full‐scale commercialisation. Activities in this sector include wave and tidal power and additional energy sources such as hydrogen fuel cells.

From a regional perspective, London has benefitted immensely from the low carbon transition. The BIS study estimated that the overall growth rate of the low carbon environmental goods and services sector in London is 5.9 per cent, the highest of all UK regions, partly explained by the high growth levels seen in the carbon finance sector, which is predominantly based in the capital city.

London’s market shares a proportion of the UK’s market is relatively strong in the geothermal, solar photovoltaics, waste management sub‑sectors, with each accounting for around a quarter of the total UK turnover in these sectors.

Local performance: Recent research by INNOVAS for the LDA, suggests that there are an estimated 119 companies undertaking low carbon and environmental related activity. These companies accounted for an estimated total annual turnover of £268m and 2,281 employees – 2% of the total output and employment in the sector within London. The largest environmental sub-sector in Brent is recovery and renewables (accounting for a total turnover of £53m) with sites located within Park Royal.

Table 75: Low Carbon and environmental economy breakdown (LDA definition), 2009 Turnover (million) Sub-sector

Companies

271

Jobs equivalent

Number

% of London

Number

% of London

Number

% of London

Environmental

61

4%

3

1%

228

1%

Low Carbon

60

1%

41

2%

828

2%

Renewables and R&D

147

2%

75

3%

1,225

2%

Total

268

2%

119

2%

2,281

2%

Building technologies is also one of the largest low carbon niche sectors represented in Brent, accounted for by an estimated total turnover of £20m - a third (33%) of the low-carbon sub-sector output - and over 300 local jobs. The building technologies sector (along with the energy management sub-sector) is likely to be directly influenced by the current Mayoral low carbon interventions of RE:NEW (formerly known as HEEP) and RE:FIT (formerly known as BEEP); these opportunities linked to housing and commercial development are explored later in the LEA. 269

Source: BIS London’s low carbon sector is dominated in revenue terms by carbon finance. However, for the purpose of analysis, carbon finance is removed due to the size and scale of this sub‑sector which dwarfs others in London 271 Source: Innovas Ltd (2009): cited in LDA (2009): London low carbon sector borough data 2009 270

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Industries within the building technologies sub-sector are clustered around Park Royal and include: supply of toughened glass, windows, doors; insulation and heat retention materials; and monitoring and control systems and services. The future growth prospects for the low carbon sector in London are strong. The LDA expect growth to be above the average growth rate, and particularly strong for the renewable energy subâ&#x20AC;&#x2018;sectors due to their relative infancy. For instance, forecasts272 suggest that geothermal, building technologies, solar photovoltaics, wind energy and wave and tidal subâ&#x20AC;&#x2018;sector will all grow at 4 per cent and above year on year until 2012/13. In contrast growth in more developed subâ&#x20AC;&#x2018;sectors, such as recovery and recycling and waste management, is relatively subdued in comparison to the rest of the sector marginally above at 2 per cent, but still above the average growth rate for the economy.

Figure 92: Low Carbon and environmental economy (turnover), 2008

273, 274

Figure 93: Low Carbon and environmental economy (companies), 2008

Figure 94: Low Carbon and environmental economy (jobs- equivalent), 2008

272

Source: Innovas Ltd (2009): cited in LDA (2009): London low carbon sector borough data 2009 Source: Ibid 274 Note: Some sub-sector industries show turnover but not companies or employees. Companies are only counted once in the analysis for their main activity in the sector, however employment is allocated to the different activities taking place across a company 273

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Economic performance and spatial development This section of the LEA looks at economic performance within Brent, and in the light of the sectoral analysis, looks at future spatial and economic development across the borough. In particular it looks at the potential impact of regeneration schemes and their relationship with the local area. The analysis makes use of previous land-use studies, business performance and evidence supporting Brent’s Core Strategy.

The London Plan and the Mayor’s Economic Development Strategy recognise that London will need to accommodate very substantial growth in employment and housing. The location and nature of this growth must spread prosperity to parts that remain blighted by poor transport access, high crime, low employment and skills, insufficient or low quality housing, degraded environment, and uninspired urban design and architecture. The spatial pattern of new investment will, as it has done in the past across London and Brent, reflect a mix of meeting need and deprivation on the one hand, and on the other, targeting places with the highest potential.

Strategic plans identify that some of these areas are in clusters, which will offer major focal points for economic development. These include the City Fringe, the Isle of Dogs, the Lower Lea Valley (including the Olympic Park) and, in outer London, the Upper Lea Valley, Cricklewood/ Brent Cross, Park Royal/Willesden Junction and the wider Heathrow area. The Mayor aims to work with boroughs, the HCA, private developers and other partners to support the production and implementation of planning and investment strategies for these areas. In some, private investment may be most appropriate and readily attracted; in others public investment may be needed to create conditions in which private funding can be attracted.

Brent's economic base, especially its town centres, main office locations and manufacturing sector, have shown decline and rationalisation between the late 1970s and the present day. The borough’s town centres, although continuing to provide a local service, have become a less attractive location for major retailers after the opening of Brent Cross in the 1970's, but continue to serve very local markets providing food goods and services to local neighbourhoods. This trend has continued in recent years as other rival attractions have developed across London, most recently Westfield (White City) and further development within Brent Cross.

Consequently, residents generally travel out of the borough to shop for their major - comparison and white goods, often along heavily congested roads such as the North Circular towards Brent Cross.

Brent’s major centres, notably Wembley (high street), have declined significantly in recent years, from their once eminent place within London’s town centre and retail hierarchy (predominantly in the early 20th century up to the 1960s).

Up until the 1990's, Brent was home to a number of firms' headquarters, particularly in Wembley and adjacent to the North Circular Road. Most of these firms have now left the borough and the buildings which they occupied have either been converted for other uses, provide office space for smaller or local businesses, or remain vacant.

Elsewhere in the borough, for example, Alperton, on the margins of Park Royal, the industrial stock is of mixed quality, inadequately serviced and of low value despite these areas being well connected to the strategic road network. Large scale commercial redevelopment of this land is required to meet the operational needs of modern industrial users and to sustain local employment needs, alongside further improvements to the public realm to attract and retain future investors to the area.

Additionally, a general industrial shift from making products to moving them around has led to an erosion of skills and employment density. In particular, a decline in the manufacturing sector, coupled with a poorer than average growth in service sector jobs, has meant that Brent’s total employment levels (net of different sectoral increases/decreases) have stagnated over recent years.

The London Plan 2008 predicts a continual long-term decline in industrial employment, which reinforces the need for Brent to release some of its industrial sites for re-development, as reflected in the most recent local state-of-the-art forecasts that have been used for this LEA.

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Therefore the challenges identified in Brent’s Core Strategy are to:

maintain sufficient employment land to meet future needs whilst releasing the least well located land for alternative uses create employment through development that helps address local unemployment;

create employment through development that helps address local unemployment meet Brent’s shopping needs locally within the borough by improving major town centres and maintaining other town centres;

improve the quality of the industrial stock and improve the environment of industrial areas to ensure long term occupation of stock that helps maintain jobs and improve their provision and numbers.

In order to achieve sustainable development, and in particular to reduce the need to travel by car, population growth requires that additional jobs should be available locally, both accessible by public transport (to enable connections both within/across the borough – but also to connect key subregional employment sites such as Park Royal and Wembley to the CAZ and West/North West London), and by proximity to neighbourhoods (in terms of access by walking and cycling).

The Core Strategy clearly identifies that future spatial development must deliver the benefits that growth and associated regeneration brings, whilst at the same time assessing and ensuring that there is adequate provision of key infrastructure - both social and physical - including sufficient land to accommodate future development.

In the light of the discussion in the LEA section on employment and worklessness, the analysis now turns to considering how well this is working, and to identify where there is potential to increase the number of Brent’s residents accessing jobs in local developments.

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3.14.1 Land-use categories Before moving onto a detailed review of particular sites, it is useful to summarise the outcomes of previous land-use studies within the borough as provide a view on the overall supply and demand for sites and property within Brent. An updated review of employment land in the borough was published in early 2009.275 Its purpose was to assess the quantity, quality and viability of employment land throughout Brent, and to provide an extension of the analysis of demand for employment land in the borough, originally completed in 2006 276 - including recommendation on land use change and de/re-allocation of sites from or for employment uses. The following section provides a summary of the report findings.

Brent Council classifies its employment land in three categories:

Strategic Industrial Locations (UDP refers to as Strategic Employment Areas); Locally Significant Industrial Sites (UDP - Borough Employment Areas); and Local Employment Areas (LEAs).

Proposals for the regeneration of Strategic Industrial Locations and Locally Significant Industrial Sites will be supported where this will secure the status of the location as an industrial employment area by delivering new floor space and significant environmental improvements. In particular, proposals should demonstrate improvements to transport and pedestrian accessibility, the appearance of buildings and land parcels and the public realm.

Strategic Industrial Locations (Strategic Employment Areas - SEAs) Brent’s SEAs are recognised as having significance to London as a whole and are identified as Preferred Industrial Location (PILs) or Industrial Business Parks (IBPs) in the London Plan. These designations are intended to meet the needs of different types of industry by providing a range of premises and environments. IBPs are intended for businesses requiring a high quality environment while PILs are for businesses with less demanding requirements. The following areas are designated at Strategic Industrial Locations in the Core Strategy: Park Royal, Staples Corner, Wembley, East Lane.

Locally Significant Industrial Sites (Borough Employment Areas - BEAs) Borough Employment Areas (BEAs) are considered well suited to retention for industrial use. These are generally larger sites providing a range of plot sizes and premises for a variety of business activities, including those with potential ‘bad neighbour’ uses. These sites do not have the same level of strategic accessibility but still have good access to main roads and transport links. Locally Significant Industrial Sites identified in the Core Strategy include: Alperton, Brentfield Road, Church End, Colindale, Cricklewood, Honeypot Lane, Kingsbury and Neasden Lane.

Local Employment Areas (LEAs) Local Employment Sites are generally smaller sites scattered throughout residential areas, but there are also a number of larger sites providing local employment opportunities. These sites have less strategic importance but are still fulfilling a function or meeting a demand within the community.

Table 76: identifies all the Borough’s designated employment areas by category. The table shows the total land within the employment areas, i.e. within SEAs, BEAs and LEAs. The activities taking place on Brent’s designated employment areas cover a broad range of uses, with a majority of land allocated to general industrial (B2), and general storage use (B8).

Table 76: B1, B2 and B8 land in SEAs, BEAs, LEAs, in Brent 2009 Land-use

275 276 277

Area (ha)

Office (B1)

25

Factories (B2)

105

Storage / Warehouses (B8)

119

Vacant Land

17

Non B Use Class Activities including: residential and other

116

Total (figures rounded)

382

URS (2009): Brent Employment Land Study URS (2006): Brent Employment Land Demand Study Source: LB Brent Employment Land Demand Study, LB Brent 2009 CLES Consulting

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Table 77: illustrates the different types of land-use within the borough and provides a summary of current (2009) levels of use, and levels of vacant space. The main concentrations of vacant land (as a percentage of a site) are in Park Royal and close by in East Lane; this reflects the changing demand for industrial land within London, over the last decade in particular.

Table 77: Total designated employment land in Brent, 2009 278 Designation SILs (Strategic Employment Areas) Park Royal (Brent) East Lane Wembley Neasden Staples Corner LSIS: (Borough Employment Areas) Alperton Brentfield Road Church End Colindale Cricklewood Honeypot Lane Kingsbury Road Neasden Land Local Employment Areas Within main industrial estates Outside main industrial estates Total

Size (ha) 254.1 134.8 18.1% 25.1 39.7 36.4 66.2 29.0 4.4 9 7.2 1.3 5.1 6.9 3.2 64 38 26 382

In use (ha) 166.5 72.8 8.6 18.2 36.6 30.3 56.6 25.3 4.4 8.5 4.4 1.3 4.5 5.4 3.0

Vacant (ha) 87.5 62.0 9.6 6.9 3.1 6.0 9.5 3.8 <0.1 0.5 2.8 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.2

Vacant (Percent) 34.5% 46.0% 52.8% 27.4% 7.7% 16.6% 14.4% 13.0% 0.7% 5.7% 38.4% 0.0% 12.5% 22.8% 7.3%

3.14.2 Demand for land Analysis from the 2009 employment land study, shown in Table 78: illustrates that the net additional forecast demand for employment land/floor space can largely be accommodated on existing vacancy and through the redevelopment of existing sites (within a low growth forecast).

Table 78: Gross and Net Employment Land Demand, Brent 2006 to 2026

279

Type

High

Office (B1) Factories (B2) Warehouses (B8) Net demand to 2026 2008 vacancy (ha) Frictional vacancy to 2026 Land for waste to 2026 (ha) Net Change in B1,B2,B8 stock to 2026

Low Gross supply 2006 (ha)

Gross supply 2026 (ha)

Net demand to 2006 (ha)

Gross supply 2006 (ha)

Gross supply 2026 (ha)

Net demand to 2006 (ha)

25 105 119 249

35 48 145 228

10 -57 26 -21 -17 +11 +8

35 48 145 249

38 55 157 250

13 -50 38 +1 -17 +13 +8

-19ha

+5ha

The table also includes consideration of frictional vacancy (created by turnover time between occupation) and pipeline development (known developments with planning permission). The main results are summarised in the following section.

278 279

Source: LB Brent Employment Land Demand Study, LB Brent 2009 Source: URS Calculations in the Brent employment land study 2009 CLES Consulting

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B1 – Office, storage and light industrial The forecasts in the 2009 land-use study280 set out that there is net demand to 2026 for approximately 10 to 13 hectares of land for B1 uses. This forecast demand did not account for any large ‘strategic schemes’ at First Central and Quintain Stage 1 schemes at Park Royal and Wembley respectively. The study suggests that the majority of occupiers of the floor space provided at such schemes would be ‘non-local’ in their origins i.e. multinational corporations or London-wide operations, and floor space at these would therefore not be considered as satisfying local demand for office space.

As illustrated earlier in the LEA, the financial and business services sectors, which would occupy B1 premises, account for a significant proportion of jobs in Brent; 16.1 per cent of total jobs in 2008.

Furthermore, the forecasts used in this LEA suggest localised growth of 5,000 business services jobs over the next decade, suggesting that even in the light of the low growth assumptions in the original land-use study (which will be closer to current forecasts), there will be demand for office accommodation within the borough. The question remains whether Brent’s property offer is competitive with other existing and proposed developments across London, both within the CAZ (typically higher value activity) and other locations across outside London; and arguably other cities in the UK which currently have significant capacity to accommodate growth.

B2 – Factories In the 2006 LB Brent ELD Study, it was found that employment in manufacturing in Brent had decreased by approximately 29 per cent in the period 1995 to 2004 - a reflection of wider national and sub-national trends in the sector. This contraction is further reflected in the forecast used in the 2009 study, which shows that there is net demand to 2026 for approximately 50 less hectares of land for B2 use.

The declining demand for B2 employment sites up to 2026 is reflective of a progressive trend towards demand for B8 employment floor space in the SEAs. In terms of supply, there is a significant amount of vacant floor space suitable for B2 land-use in the Borough, particularly in the Park Royal SEA, that would be able to accommodate new industrial start-ups. Similarly, floor-space was observed to be available at smaller BEAs, indicating that both small and larger unit requirements could be fulfilled if demand was forthcoming.

In the 2006 LB Brent ELD Study it was assessed that there was a general oversupply of B2 employment land in the Borough, and the revised 209 forecast demand for this type of land, to 2026, provides further evidence of surplus. The report recommends the monitored re-allocation of B2 employment land to be allocated for B8 land-use and appropriate release of sites. This remains a contentious issue with the London Plan aiming to protect areas such as Park Royal from significant transfer of land-use from industrial to other ‘higher value’ activities.

B8 – Storage / Warehouses The 2009 study forecasts set out that there is net demand to 2026 for approximately 26 to 38 hectares of land for B8 uses – an indication of the perceived buoyancy of the transport and logistics sector (reflected in the business section), both locally and regionally. The study recognises that a large proportion of the local demand for B8 floor space is already in the pipeline through outstanding permissions at the Former Heinz Factory and the Former Guinness Brewery site - all within the Park Royal SEA. With regard to supply, it has been established through surveying that a wide range of available premises exist in the Borough, which are suitable for B8 use. At Park Royal SEA, there are a number of small vacant units suitable for B8 occupation, as well as larger ‘sheds’ such as those found at the recently developed Premier Park industrial estate. There is thus both second-hand and newly built floor space available for B8 land use. Other locations, such as the Kingsbury Road industrial estate, contain available B8 floor space of a generally high standard, which will be able to further satisfy local demand for B8 employment land.

Finally, the study recommends that the availability of B8 employment land be increased through action by the Council to ensure that B2 land use is monitored so that a gradual change in allocation of this land for B8 land uses takes place. This is to ensure that the forecasted demand for B8 floor space can be met in the Borough, up until 2026.

280

Using the same forecast assumptions as used in the initial 2006 study, cited in the 2009 land study CLES Consulting

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3.14.3 Opportunity areas Our analysis now turns to looking at particular strategic locations. This part of the LEA is not a detailed land-use study, nor is it a deep analysis of commercial property availability; however it aims to review development across Brent and raise strategic issues and implications for future strategy.

Two areas of Brent are identified in the London Plan as ‘Opportunity Areas’ - Park Royal and Wembley. In Park Royal there is a need to renew what had become in the 1980s a run-down industrial estate and to provide new business opportunities and jobs, although much of the more modern accommodation can now be found within the Brent part of the estate. The impetus for renewal at Wembley was provided by the decision to rebuild Wembley Stadium as the new National Stadium and the associated enhancement of the infrastructure.

Issues for Wembley Wembley, together with its near neighbour Park Royal, aims to become a key driver in the west London economy, providing a sustainable source of jobs for local people. The planning strategy for the area aims to promote the regeneration of Wembley as a regional sports, entertainment and leisure destination, taking advantage of the opportunities presented by the Stadium development and the potential for development of sites in the surrounding area. The long-term vision is to achieve a critical mass of visitor attractions, building on the area’s current role as a major leisure and entertainment centre for London – at the same time providing the vibrant heart of Brent.

The Wembley master-plan covers an area of approximately 70 hectares. It lies to the north and east of the land owned by ‘Quintain Estates and Development’ that has been granted outline planning permission and is broadly defined by Empire Way to the west and the two rail lines that converge from the north and south and Hannah Close in the east. There are major plans for Wembley City to become one of London's most exciting lifestyle destinations, offering a mix of amenities surrounding luxury apartments including leisure complex and shopping opportunities.

The new National Stadium, designed by ‘Foster & Partners’ architects, was completed in 2007 at a total cost of circa £750 million. It is a world class stadium and has been designed specifically to provide an unparalleled visitor experience, whilst hosting renowned sports and music events.

Quintain has delivered a new public square for London and restored and re-orientated Wembley Arena so that this Grade II listed building now faces into the heart of the regeneration area and overlooks the new Arena Square.

Progress on Wembley’s development to date has been focussed in two key locations, the area immediately surrounding the stadium and the area around the High Road. Future development will help to ensure that Wembley becomes a high quality, urban, connected and sustainable city quarter generating 10,000 new jobs across a range of sectors including retail, offices, the new Brent civic centre, conference facilities, hotels, sports, leisure, tourism and visitor attractors, creative and cultural industries and education facilities reflecting its designation as a Strategic Cultural Area for London. Around 70 hectares of land around the Wembley National Stadium and Wembley town centre will be redeveloped for at least 11,500 new homes to 2026, supported by investment in critical infrastructure.

The public sector has played an important role with the LDA securing compulsory purchase of land and Brent Council has negotiated over £25 million of local benefits to be delivered through the scheme. These include a new healthy living centre for five GPs, up to £9 million towards a new school, £2.5 million to help train local people to secure the new jobs, 8,200sqm of community facilities and contributions towards improvements to stations, buses, road junctions and public art.

Public and private sector partners are also working to transform the Wembley Industrial Estate into a modern employment area, providing a variety of sustainable jobs for local people. There has already been a strong focus, through Brent in2work, on ensuring that local people are best placed to secure the new jobs on offer during construction and more importantly within the completed developments. Local public and private partners continue to work with employers to provide bespoke training, recruitment services, interview guarantee schemes for local people, and investment in public transport which links local people to the new jobs and facilities.

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A core element of the wider regeneration of this area is the existing Wembley High Road, an area that provides a lynch-pin and logical next stage for improvement to changing the face of Wembley.

The High Road will continue to function as a major centre for residents and visitors alike. The existing centre has declined over the last 20 years with a gradual loss of major retailers. The opportunity to develop the High Roadâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s special character will be promoted and supported - it is already benefiting from recent improvements to the public realm and major new mixed-use developments, including Wembley Central Square which will become the focus of regeneration in this locality.

A small but important element in the master-plan for Wembley is the creation of work space for the creative industries (the arts, media, music, publishing etc). Nurturing creativity and enabling creative people to live and work in this area will assist in the diversification of local jobs. Research

by Brent Council has also identified considerable unmet local demand for small scale employment spaces suitable for occupation by creative industries (reflecting the growth in the sector indicated in the business section of the LEA).

As the London Plan recognises, a concerted effort in strategic planning offers an opportunity to deliver a more focused encouragement of higher value, high-growth business development which is needed to support and complement existing growth hot-spots across London. A major part of this effort will be the co-ordinated development of employment sites and investment in areas which help to support regeneration priorities and local direct and indirect economic impacts in a long-term and sustainable manner.

Concentrating and coordinating office development within Wembley (capitalising on key assets, infrastructure, accessibility and branding) remains, in our view, the main way Brent can bring in additional investment and prosperity to the borough. The site is well located to provide local job opportunities, and access to other facilities for some of Londonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most deprived neighbourhoods nearby. Mapping of travel-to-work trends show that both sites already support significant local economic and employment benefit. Supporting economic and employment growth in these areas will continue to add to the positive economic impacts achieved to date, allowing more densely populated developments which integrate commercial and residential use classes, transport and communications infrastructure - providing agglomeration benefits derived from the concentration of economic activity along with good connections to the wider area (London and Greater South East).

However a number of key risks remain to the future success of office (and retail) development within the area. As outlined in the context section of the LEA, research policy review281 highlights that economic viability for office development is a major inhibiting factor in Outer London at any time; even more so in the current economic climate as the UK emerges from recession. Very few locations commanded rental values that rendered development viable, even at the peak of the cycle when investment yields were lower and rental growth was anticipated. Competition from other mega-developments across London is also likely to intensify including developments both within the CAZ, and ambitions to develop the eastern part of the capital to take advantage of developments liked to the Olympic Park and further afield into the Thames Gateway. For example, Stratford (home to the Olympic Park and Stratford City) will be transformed into a new Metropolitan Centre for East London with cutting edge retail, cultural and sporting developments. Construction is already well underway.

Demand pressures on Central London, that may once have fuelled demand in Outer London, have also been relieved by the emergence of large campus-style schemes on the edge of London, offering an alternative to businesses that may once have looked to Outer London to provide a lower priced office location with ready access to Central London, and cause fewer disturbances to travel-to-work patterns. Clearly there will continue to be demand for office based activities elsewhere in London outside the CAZ, but as recent review has shown to a lesser extent than anticipated in the original London Plan, and this will inevitably have an impact on demand for office in Outer London and within Brent.

Planning policies in Brent will clearly need to be well-integrated and prioritised so they respond to market signals and avoid spreading scarce public (and private) investment too thinly across the borough. To fail to do this will result in partially filled sites, and money being wasted in some areas while costs are driven up by shortages of appropriate homes and business premises elsewhere in Brent.

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Source: London Office Policy Review 2009 CLES Consulting

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Public subsidy will only have a role at the margins, and given the scarcity of resources it should be prioritised according to objective criteria and work with the grain of what businesses actually want to do in the borough.

Similarly, money spent on neighbourhood renewal will achieve little without serious attempts to focus on individuals within those neighbourhoods â&#x20AC;&#x201C; their skills, their ambitions. Whilst Wembley offers the main prospects for economic development and employment, many local residents will still need to travel-to-work elsewhere in London to realise their potential; and the realisation of that potential will benefit the areas in Brent in which they live, through the improvement of housing and the organic development of local enterprise. However as the LEA also highlights, significant work to address both the disproportionate effects of worklessness and barriers to work will be needed within Brent to enable local residents to capitalise on any future employment opportunities â&#x20AC;&#x201C; whether local or within the CAZ.

Issues for Park Royal The vision for Park Royal is to protect and intensify employment on the Park Royal Industrial Estate by supporting sustainable business growth and environmental industries, creating an attractive working environment through improvements to public transport and the public realm, and the provision of a new heart offering a range of amenities.

Park Royal is Europeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest industrial estate and the principal industrial area in West London.

Together with Willesden Junction, Park Royal extends to 700 hectares across Brent, Ealing and Hammersmith & Fulham boroughs. It includes Willesden Junction, Hanger Lane and Alperton in the west to the boundary of Kensal Green Cemetery in the east. Most of the northern boundary is formed by the railway line from Euston. In the main, the A40 Western Avenue acts as the southern boundary, although the Opportunity Area (OA) includes some industrial areas south of this.

Open space within the area of warehouses and industrial units is limited, with the exception of the Grand Union Canal. Other open spaces include the River Brent, Acton Cemetery, Twyford Abbey and the open spaces along the road and rail corridors. Wormwood Scrubs and Kensal Green Cemetery are two significant strategic open spaces to the east, however the road and rail infrastructure make them difficult to access from within Park Royal.

The Park Royal Opportunity Area currently accommodates some 2,000 businesses employing around 40,000 along with some small scale residential development. It is estimated that the OA could accommodate in the region of 425,000 square metres of commercial and industrial floor-space and some 3,600 residential units. It is identified in the London Plan as an Opportunity Area with a target to accommodate 11,000 new jobs over the next 20 years.

Land-use studies suggest that almost two-fifths (38%) of the land is used for storage and distribution, 14 per cent for industrial, 5 per cent for business and 8 per cent by the motor trades.

The remaining percentage constitutes open land and a small percentage of sites covering 10 hectares for multi-purpose use. The building stock is generally of good quality with more than half built in the last 25 years. Robust demand remains for good warehouse and small office units and residential space, however research suggests that on-street parking at 46 per cent of sites obstructed freight traffic; and 20 per cent of sites also suffered from poor HGV accessibility.282 Park Royal is well connected to the strategic road network, with the A40 Western Avenue to the south and the A406 North Circular to the west. Ten different bus routes serve Park Royal. Six Underground stations are situated around the edges of the estate; (Hanger Lane, North Acton on the Central Line, Park Royal on the Piccadilly Line, and Stonebridge Park, Harlesden and Willesden Junction on the Bakerloo Line.). Willesden Junction station provides orbital rail links to destinations including Watford and Clapham Junction, as well as a radial route into Euston in central London.

Along with Harlesden and Stonebridge Park, it became part of the new London over-ground network in November 2007 when Transport for London assumed responsibility for the Silverlink network.

The aim is for Park Royal to remain a strategic employment location, exploiting its potential to meet modern logistics and waste management requirements, making good use of its access to Heathrow and the West End, strategic road and rail connections and seeking to develop its potential for water freight. It is also a key hub for the future location of waste management facilities to help meet West London's needs.

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Source: LDA (2007): The Park Royal Land and Premises Study CLES Consulting

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Within the Brent part of Park Royal new housing development is not currently considered (within existing plans) to be appropriate, apart from providing the key worker housing associated with Central Middlesex Hospital and new housing on part of the First Central site on the edge of the area.

Work continues to look at the site’s potential to meet modern logistics and waste management requirements, as well as addressing the need for site assembly and decontamination, and improvements to local access and the environment. It will also consider the scope for mixed-use development in locations with good public transport accessibility.

Economic and land use research shows that while there is pressure for residential development and conversion to other higher value non-industrial uses, demand for industrial land is constant and land will continue to be required for employment use. Local businesses have expressed the view that improving access to public transport, providing more amenities and upgrading the environment (including transport access and physical appearance of the sites gateways) would benefit their operations and attract more investment and employment to the estate.

Park Royal Partnership supports the Council’s ambitions to deliver local employment, with 50 per cent of jobs taken by local residents living in the surrounding area – including some of the most deprived wards in England: Alperton, Harlesden and Stonebridge in Brent, East Acton and Hanger Hill in Ealing, and College Park and Old Oak in Hammersmith & Fulham – as illustrated below.

Figure 95: Originating wards of people aged 16 to 74 working in Park Royal 283

Despite its potential as an Opportunity Area, significant risks for Park Royal’s future remain. As other chapters of the LEA have shown, London’s economy has shifted away from manufacturing and heavily into services in recent decades. This is because the nation’s competitive advantage in trade has shifted.284 Much of this activity was concentrated in certain parts of London, notably along the Thames in East London with enduring concentrations in Park Royal.

The loss of manufacturing jobs has affected employment growth in these locations – whilst London continues to be driven by growth in financial and business services, sectors that are heavily concentrated in the CAZ as well as many smaller centres in West London. As the industrial structure continues to change, the geography of jobs within London will shift further. As a result, employment growth has been stronger in locations such as the CAZ, and further consideration should be given to assessing whether the borough’s strategic employment sites could be developed for mixeduse/residential purposes, given the lack of affordable housing in the borough.

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Source: Travel-to-work statistics from Census 2001 In 1971, manufacturing accounted for 23 per cent of employment in London but by 2007 this was only 5 per cent CLES Consulting

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Interviews for the LEA and vacancy rate surveys at Park Royal indicate a 30 to 40 per cent vacancy rate in the industrial estate (and over-development in recent years of light industrial space for SME’s), suggesting that the recession has had an impact on the demand for property on the site; stakeholders were also inclined to agree that the 11,000 jobs identified in the Opportunity Area Planning Framework doesn’t look realistic in the current economic climate. However, whilst London’s manufacturing sector contracts, there are still a wide range of industrial activities in Park Royal which continue to perform roles that are important to London’s economy, especially logistics, waste management, food manufacturing and catering services, and other transport related activities.

The future key objectives set out for Park Royal285 are mutually supportive of the economic analysis undertaken in this LEA (business section), in particular the need to invest in the estate as the largest industrial employment location in London, continuing to support local sector specialisms such as food and drink manufacturing, distribution and logistics. Whether the area can provide an attractive offer to smaller start-ups in knowledge based sectors such as creative/new media enterprises remains uncertain due to competition from other locations within West London (e.g. White City).

Finally, attracting inward investment will only be realised by progressive investment in improved public realm, and providing amenities to support existing and new businesses in the places which are attractive to the market. Here investment in locations close to public transport connections, gateways and rail stations will be key; and exploring the potential to develop mixed use premises (and residential development) alongside the area’s green corridors and the canal-side.

The issues for the Council to consider in relation to Park Royal can be summarised as:

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The estate has provided, and continues to provide local employment for some of Brent’s residents in the most disadvantaged wards.

the future of some of the industries on the estate is uncertain, and may be compromised – business services, logistics;

there may be potential for development of other sectors and subsectors, e.g. food manufacturing, some sub-sectors of creative and media industries, and therefore mechanisms for monitoring and assessing the health and future potential for the area are vital;

given the need for housing, if there are viable opportunities for mixed use developments on Park Royal and in other areas such as Alperton, these should be seriously considered; and,

resources to support local businesses are few, and there is therefore a need to support the Park Royal Partnership (PRP) to achieve its ambitions to maintain the industrial estate as a successful employment area.

Mayor of London (2010): Park Royal Opportunity Area Planning Framework CLES Consulting

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3.14.4 Other priority areas including town centres and the North Circular Other priority areas for physical and social renewal are large housing estates built in the 1960s or 1970s where a combination of physical and social problems means that wholesale redevelopment or refurbishment is necessary. Much progress has already been made with Chalkhill Estate completed and Stonebridge Estate having been substantially rebuilt and renewed. At both South Kilburn and Church End, there are opportunities for additional housing and other facilities as well as replacing sub-standard accommodation. Both areas therefore, can be identified as focuses for further growth.

South Kilburn South Kilburn is a predominantly residential area, providing homes for 7,143 people across 48 hectares of land (Census, 2001). During the 1990â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the mix of uses represented in the area diminished. It is now almost uniformly housing, interspersed with local shopping parades and part of Kilburn town centre, primary schools and small-scale business premises. The physical environment is dominated by high-rise, mainly low quality public housing set in an area of poorly designed communal open space. In a few areas there are remnants of a street network and buildings that have survived the Victorian period, with many of the buildings recognised for their heritage value. The area suffers from poor housing conditions, multiple deprivation, including low income, high unemployment, low educational attainment and poor health indicators. The council aim to facilitate a shift from the housing estates of the 1960s and 1970s to a compact district set around the traditional street pattern with a substantial increase in the proportion of owner occupied households. A series of commercial uses and community facilities will be delivered, including indoor and outdoor recreation uses and new and improved open and public spaces. Around 48 hectares of land is promoted for the delivery of at least 2,400 new homes to 2026, supported by infrastructure identified within the Infrastructure and Investment Framework.

Church End Church End is located to the south east of Wembley, south of the North Circular Road. The area consists of light industrial estates, a declining centre and large, predominantly socially rented, housing estates. Church End also has a number of assets â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a thriving market, green space and St Maryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Church. Church End is promoted for mixed use regeneration set around the economic revitalisation of the local centre and an outdoor market square, using the highest standards of urban design to physically improve the area and change the perception to a busy, thriving, safe and secure village with new family sized homes. Affordable premises for local businesses and an educational outreach centre will help to support business start ups and skills development. Connectivity with Wembley and beyond will be improved with safe routes to local interchanges. Around 8 hectares of brown-field land is promoted for around 800 new homes to 2026, supported by social and physical infrastructure identified within the Infrastructure and Investment Framework.

Other areas of the borough where growth can be focused are those where there is potential to redevelop with a mix of uses. This means that sites have to be available, there has to be at least a good level of public transport accessibility and they are not areas that are worthy of protection, i.e., are a generally poor environment or townscape and are not strategic employment locations that should be retained as such. Two such areas can be identified, at Alperton and on or close to the Edgware Road at Burnt Oak/Colindale. Therefore, Alperton and Burnt Oak/Colindale area identified as growth areas.

Alperton Alperton is situated within the south west of Brent, set within the wider environs of Park Royal.

Alperton consists of 1930s suburban residential streets and cul-de-sacs and run-down industrial estates sitting uneasily side by side. Alperton does have a number of assets: a 1.6km stretch of the Grand Union canal which provides an attractive environment for waterside regeneration that will remodel the character of Alperton from declining industrial estates to a series of compact, intimate and connected developments that directly address the canal. The Core Strategy indicates that Alperton will become an enterprise hub, with a new supply of modern light industrial units, studios and managed workspaces for creative industries, local business and artists to reinvigorate the local economy. 12 hectares of land along the canal is promoted for at least 1,600 new homes to 2026, supported by infrastructure identified within the Infrastructure and Investment Framework.

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Burnt Oak/Colindale Burnt Oak/Colindale is located at the far north eastern part of the borough along Edgware Road, the boundary shared with the London Borough of Barnet. The area is characterised by retail warehouses and showrooms set along the A5 corridor. In contrast set back from Edgware Road, the character is suburban with large gardens, detached and semi-detached houses and cul-de-sacs.

The Burnt Oak/Colindale area is promoted for mixed use regeneration along the axis of Edgware Road. Plans aim to develop the area towards a traditional street pattern supporting pedestrian movement, street frontages and public spaces and squares. New economic activity will be created in the form of ground floor commercial frontage (including retail, where compliant with the sequential approach). New connections will be created in the form of improved access to local stations and the creation of effective interchanges with new buses. 15 hectares of land is promoted for at least 2,500 new homes to 2026.

3.14.5 The North Circular Road The North Circular Road is one of the main arteries of the borough and a route of strategic importance. Most of the traffic along it, including a high proportion of heavy goods vehicles, passes through the borough rather than travelling to or from locations within it. A direct consequence of the volume of traffic, which often leads to congestion, at peak times especially, is the high level of air and noise pollution on, or adjacent to, the road. The road is also a major barrier to movement, particularly on foot, from one side to the other. Junction improvements should provide better / safer facilities for pedestrians and cyclists.

In order to respond to the poor levels of living conditions along the North Circular Road and to enhance the image of the borough, the council aim to bring forward proposals that will: remove the houses most affected by noise and air pollution, with priority to those on the St Raphaelâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Estate facing the NCR while ensuring no net loss of homes; use developments such as at Unisys/Bridge Park and Wembley Point to offer new focal points that also assist in providing alternative homes; use small infill sites on the St Raphael's Estate to relocate some homes; work with TfL to improve junctions, notably at Brentfield Road; and create cycle paths and environmental barriers/open space on the dwellings removed.

The provisions of the planning policies in development and in place in Brent would suggest that the Council is clear about what it wants to achieve in terms of regeneration and growth, and has policies in place to do it. A major part of this effort will be the co-ordinated development of employment sites and investment in areas which help to support regeneration priorities and local direct and indirect economic impacts in a long-term and sustainable manner; and ensuring that future growth benefits all residents and counteracts the dangers of polarisation.

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Summary findings Growth in the business base has been driven by micro-enterprise…

Brent has an estimated total of 12,000 enterprises; accounting for almost a fifth of workplaces in West London and nearly one-in-twenty workplaces in London. Nine-out-of-ten are micro enterprises (with less than 10 employees); higher than the average for West London, London and nationally.

The number of people working in dynamic micro-sized businesses grew faster in Brent (5.1%) than the London average (4.8%) over the last five years.

There is evidence of an entrepreneurial culture with high levels of self employment…

The level of self-employment in Brent is above the London and national average. Comparison with national benchmarks suggests there is a healthy enterprise culture in Brent, with national indices ranking the borough 52nd in Britain.

But growth in the business stock has lagged behind the London average and business survival rates are low…

The borough records below-average growth in VAT-registered stock, and whilst business survival has improved significantly within Brent during the last decade, longer-term (4 years+) survival rates still lag behind regional and national averages.

Brent has experienced job losses, which occurred during the period of sustained economic growth in London and the UK… There are over 93,000 employees in the (and an additional 10,000 self-employed). However the total number of employees has fallen within Brent during the last decade, driven by recent job losses in wholesale and retail, and the continued contraction of manufacturing employment; and the borough has lost a number of large firms. The number of employers with over 200 employees has fallen by -6.6 per cent between 2003 and 2008, compared to the average for West London (0.2%), London (2.4%) and nationally (4.4%).

Many employers struggle to recruit suitably skilled labour…

The National Employers Skills Survey 2009 suggests that a lower proportion (16.5%) of employers in Brent reported skills gaps within their existing workforce, compared with an average of 18.2 per cent in West London, 17.2 per cent in London and a national average of 19.0 per cent. However employers in Brent found it significantly harder to recruit from the local labour market. Over a third (34.4%) of employers reported skill shortage vacancies, higher than the average for London (24.4%) and the national average (21.1%).

Local skill levels and the level of workforce training is low in the borough...

Future employer engagement in training remains critical for the Brent’s workforce, as the proportion of the labour market receiving training up to Level 3 or below (17.6%) was is lower than the London and UK averages (21.2%).

Businesses and local employment are concentrated in a number of sectors...

The largest private sector employment in Brent is in wholesale and retail (21,800 employees) accounting for almost a fifth (19.3%) of employment. This is followed by business services (16,800), manufacturing (10,600) - in particular the manufacturing of food and drink sector (5,000), - transport and communications (10,600), and the construction sector (9,500). The borough also provides a significant number of jobs in the public sector286; including public administration (5,000), education (6,500), and health (13,700).

Forecasts suggest some jobs growth within the next ten years…

The forecasts used in this LEA suggest that there will be a net increase of 5,000 jobs over the next decade within the borough. Whilst these forecasts are net of reductions in public sector employment, (the full impact of spending cuts are yet to play out), there may be the potential for overall employment growth in a number of industry sectors over the coming years, based on the regeneration opportunities within the borough.

But competition for inward investment will be intense….

The borough, along with other parts of West, South and North London will need to compete with pressure for investment in East London and the Thames Gateway.

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These figures excludes public services that are included under the heading ‘other personal services’ CLES Consulting

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Potential growth sectors (jobs and/or GVA) may be business services, construction, creative/new media, food and drink manufacturing and healthcare…

All these sectors are forecast to have growth potential, although growth in each of these will be affected by the availability of suitable accommodation, and sector specific issues.

Hospitality and tourism set to grow, based on key developments in the borough...

Brent receives an estimated 2.75 million visitors, the majority of these are day visitors, and an estimated 296,000 overnight visitors. Brent also has opportunity to capitalise on other tourist attractions including a range of cultural festivals and leisure facilities linked to regeneration at Wembley. Baseline forecasts suggest a net in year increase of 400 jobs and £24m GVA by 2020.

Transport and communications is essential to supporting both local enterprise in Brent and supporting future economic and labour market growth across London...

The sector is a major employer within Brent, accounting for 10,600 employees and £496m GVA. Future opportunities are linked to investment in local infrastructure – including transport access at Park Royal, as well as potential to capitalise on link to other key transport projects in London such as Crossrail. Baseline forecasts suggest that the transport sector could deliver a net in year increase of 1,000 jobs by 2020, and an increase of £170m GVA per annum.

Despite growing competition from shopping centres outside the borough, Brent’s retail economy remains important to the continued vitality of local neighbourhoods...

Whilst levels of employment in the retail sector have fallen within Brent over the last five years, proposed developments in Brent and longer-term growth forecasts suggest that the sector deliver a net increase of 600 jobs by 2020, and an increase of £162m GVA per annum.

3.16

Context and priorities A outlined in the economic context section of this LEA there are a number of factors characterise the current economic situation and will have an important influence on both London and Brent’s economy over the next 12 to 18 months including: the UKs slower recovery (with the UK economy growing less than previously estimated by ONS between July and September 2010); deeper risks in the Eurozone economy; continued changes to the economic structure; challenges on public spending; growing inequalities within society; and pervious economic development models of the recent past now appear unsustainable, being over-reliant on debt finance and asset appreciation.

Whilst these factors will create challenging conditions across the UK there are opportunities for local development including the following:

London remaining a key driver of the UKs economy;

exports could grow if the value of the point remains low – encouraging a more resilient manufacturing export market;

long-term trends such as the rise of China and India mean new markets and opportunities for new joint ventures and investment;

moves to a low carbon economy and the Green Deal could open up new markets; and pressures to rebalance the economy and reform economic performance could lead to a better use of local economic assets.

Brent contains unique assets and performs a number of functions within the capital. It is a strategic location for a major visitor attraction, the national stadium at Wembley, and contains part of the largest manufacturing area in London.

Supporting investment With an increasing emphasis on supporting ‘the right environment for enterprise’ the government has set out a range of lessons learnt from the past and some of the challenges ahead to encourage businesses, investors and lenders to support economic recovery in its recent Green Paper on Financing a Private Sector Recovery.287 The paper covers issues such as: stability of tax, regulation and the economic environment; reforms to banking; access to finance for development; specialist investment advice for SMEs; supply chain finance - and potentially a role for Brent in stimulating local supply chain activity and local investment by promoting awareness and access to sources of growth capital (for example through meet the buyer events and online supply chain intelligence); 287

BIS and HM Treasury (2010): Financing a Private Sector Recovery – HMG response to consultation CLES Consulting

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exploring social lending, for example the role of local community development finance institutions and other local micro-finance facilities; and joint ventures within the borough (for example with other private sector investors, and articulating local need when working in partnership with the managing authorities for EU recyclable funds such as JESSICA288 and JEREMIE289).

Despite the risks from competition elsewhere within London which aim to attract future investment, there is considerable opportunity for growth in employment into the future in the Brent economy, particularly in and around Wembley. In the current economic climate and with significant retail growth outside the borough boundaries, there is little likelihood of attracting significant retail or office growth to other local town centres in the borough. This suggests these centres will need to build on their role as local service centres, and expand employment as and when local opportunities arise, such as through supporting growth of the evening economy, and encouraging local businessled improvement schemes where possible.

Business support policy The Local Growth White Paper290 outlines the government’s plans for future business support activity. Business Link is being abolished, with the future support for SMEs to access support being through a national website and call centre. Support for access to finance and for inward investment will be centralised, as will innovation, through Growth Hubs, which will work closely with Technology and Innovation Centres, targeting the firms with greatest potential for growth.291 The London Development Agency will cease to operate from next year and the institutional arrangements for provision of these services as well as the potential to continue localised business support is as yet unclear. The government expects Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) to provide tailored support, although it is uncertain at present what, if any, resource they will have to do this.

There is likely to be a London wide LEP which could have the economies of scale and capacity to provide businesses with the support they need. Brent needs to work proactively within such a structure to ensure that strategy and implementation plans remain sensitive to local needs, and that local vehicles are in place to deliver intensive support where required.

The White Paper also sets out a range of opportunities for local authorities to support a climate conducive for growth, including: an emphasis on the public sector playing a strategic role to leverage added value from other agencies / local organisations through local leadership, place shaping, coordination and collaboration, disseminating best practice, promoting excellence, and leveraging additional resources and investment). It also places an emphasis upon local authorities’ planning powers to ensuring a responsive supply of land that supports business and housing growth.

With reduced levels of public funding for business support and environmental improvements, Brent Council will need to maximise its support for local business-led schemes, and identify opportunities to direct any funding that is available towards local priorities. The Park Royal Opportunity Area remains a key employment area accommodating 2,000 businesses employing around 40,000 people.

However, significant risks for Park Royal’s future remain. London’s economy has shifted away from manufacturing and heavily into services in recent decades. Whilst the future key objectives set out for Park Royal are mutually supportive of the economic analysis undertaken in this LEA, there is a particular need to invest in the estate, continuing to support local sector specialisms, at the same time exploring potential for investment in other parts of the area to be developed for public realm and residential opportunities, responding to the high levels of housing demand in Brent.

Localism The coalition government, building upon the pre-election commitment of the Conservative Party, has set out strong policy commitments to reforming public services in the United Kingdom. Central to this policy approach are the concepts of localism and decentralisation, articulated in the Localism Bill.292 The government is keen to re-localise the running of services with a particular emphasis upon communities deciding upon and running services in their neighbourhoods, in effect creating a big society. Key to this desire is an ambition to change the structure of control in the UK and decentralise activities away from the centre towards local government and communities.

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Joint European Support for Sustainable Investment in City Areas - an initiative to promote sustainable investment, and growth and jobs, in Europe’s urban areas 289 Joint European Resources for Micro to Medium Enterprises - Funds to finance small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by means of equity, loans or guarantees, through a revolving Holding Fund acting as an umbrella fund 290 BIS (2010): local growth: realising every place’s potential – The Local Growth White Paper 291 BIS (2010): The Current and Future Role of Technology and Innovation Centres in the UK 292 HMG (2010): Localism Bill presented as the First Reading to Parliament December 2010 CLES Consulting

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Whilst there is much in the Bill about decentralising to local communities, the powers allocated to local government remain less clear. Decentralisation needs to be intrinsically linked to the function of local economic development and particularly the understanding this function has of the needs of place. Brent has a potential role to play as ‘honest broker’ in these decentralisation aspirations, promoting local service delivery opportunities; and providing the networks and capacity building support for local community groups to get more involved in local service delivery, for example working on local economic benefit through procurement in the local business supply chain.

The Localism Bill also proposes that local authorities are granted a General Power of Competence that will allow them to do anything which is not prohibited by law. The aim of this new power is to give local authorities greater opportunity to develop rapid, innovative responses to local challenges.

The government sees this as enabling local authorities to develop and run services independently of Whitehall and encourage cross-boundary collaboration and new ways of working. The Bill will give local authorities the power to grant a discount in business rates, and enable them to respond locally to the concerns of local businesses. This is a potential area that Brent can, along with local partners and neighbouring authorities, continue to incentivise new inward investment to key sites such as Park Royal (in partnership with Ealing, and Hammersmith and Fulham); and it also represents an innovative yet realistic method of securing the long-term sustainability of the area through support for information, advice and guidance for business and provide a range of local environmental improvements such as landscaping and street furniture, local security grants/services, closed circuit television and additional, or perhaps higher, standards of energy and waste management.

Increasing workforce skills For businesses to flourish they require a strong and robust regulatory and macro-economic environment together with a supply of skills to increase their capacity for innovation which will ultimately drive up productivity and competitiveness. The coalition government’s skills policies will remove any potential for skills planning, and result in provision being led principally by employer demand in future. To ensure that the right mix of skills is available locally, it will be important to work with business in Brent to persuade them of the need to contribute resources to workforce training to make up for some of the shortfall from public spending cuts. This would drive up productivity, and allow firms to innovate, diversify and break into new markets – ultimately increasing their resilience and enabling them to compete. Up-skilling the local workforce, and connecting to job opportunities remains vital for future economic prosperity in the borough. Raising resident’s skills levels and their aspirations to access employment opportunities within both the CAZ and key developments within Brent will be vital. Concentrating and coordinating office development within Wembley (capitalising on key assets, continuing existing plans for infrastructure development, accessibility and branding) remains, in our view, the main way Brent can bring in additional investment and prosperity to the borough.

Suggested Priorities Suggested priorities emerging from the analysis are:

Continue to work with existing employer partnerships and emerging business support structures that emerge over the coming year, and lobby them for support to be locally appropriate and responsive to need;

ensure that the local planning system is streamlined for businesses seeking to develop new sites or expand existing premises within the borough;

continue to support a Business Improvement District in Park Royal, working collectively on projects that: enhance the area and make a difference to the trading environment; support for energy and waste management initiatives; and support workforce development;

explore potential to introduce incentives to attract businesses to the area through lowering initial business rates for the first year;

work in partnership with the GLA and national partners to promote the benefits of adaptation to Low Carbon technologies, and ensure relevant information is given regarding compliance, exemptions, and charges from the Climate Change Levy;

promote opportunities emerging from environmental industries through the Brent Climate Change Steering Group and Sustainability Forum, and the Brent Business Charter;

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explore opportunities to develop local supply chain through ‘meet the buyer events’ linked to investments from the Green Deal, private sector investment and EU funding, and opportunities from London’s climate strategy;

continue to champion progressive local procurement policies across the council, in particular at pre-tendering stages, and encourage use of ‘framework and lot’ approaches;

work with Brent Fairtrade Network to promote benefits to local businesses of ensuring a living wage, minimum health and safety standards, and working towards sustainable production;

work closely with colleges and training providers to develop mechanisms for effective employer engagement, providing a better understanding of local employers’ demand for skills;

continue to promote local training opportunities at Level 2 and 3, in particular those arising from pipeline developments at Wembley and housing renewal activity in Brent.

lobby local businesses and their networks to offer apprenticeships, peer and mentoring support for enterprise, and mentoring for young people within Brent;

encourage schools to develop enterprise in the local school curriculum, promoting exposure to enterprise skills development at each stage of compulsory education;

explore potential to develop, in partnership with the private sector, a Brent Youth Enterprise Bank which provides grant funding to 13 to 19 year olds with an enterprising idea;

provide information to local residents about future job opportunities in local community/civic buildings, supermarkets, schools and colleges, local housing associations, registered social landlord networks and tenant management organisations.

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4

QUALITY OF LIFE: HOUSING, TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT

4.1

Introduction London performs well in terms of some quality of life criteria such as its cultural life and rich heritage. In other areas the perception of quality of life is more mixed, judged against competitor cities. The overall perception of the quality of life is the accumulation of a range of issues, which must be addressed to help improve the lives of Londoners and make the city as attractive as possible to investors, businesses, workers, and tourists.

The competitiveness of Brent and its economic hinterland is defined not just by its business base and labour market, but also its wider critical infrastructure and ‘offer’. For the economy to flourish, people, goods and information must move freely. Businesses across Brent need the right conditions to grow. Reliable infrastructure such as affordable housing, transport and communications networks, utilities are essential to achieve this.

Ensuring these networks are integrated and resilient is vital. Failure to make the right choices at the right time, or pausing investment, risks not only stunting growth but also damaging the borough’s competitiveness.

This part of the economic assessment will focus upon Brent’s offer in terms of housing, connectivity and transport infrastructure; and the local environment.

4.2

The residential offer Housing can play a key role in delivering regeneration in under-performing areas with a potential for growth. Successful housing regeneration can attract longer-term private sector investment and increase the long-term viability of an area. Highly skilled and mobile labour is attracted to locations with stable and cohesive communities, strong transport links, a strong cultural offer and attractive and well provided town centres.

London house prices have increased at a faster rate than the rest of the UK, with affordability reducing significantly over the past decade. The difference for first-time home buyers is more significant. This may act as a deterrent to those considering moving to London. Some of the impact has been softened in the increased availability of rental properties (and lower growth in rental costs); rentals in London are particularly important for migrants. Other impacts include longer commutes from lower cost residential locations in outer London and beyond.

Good quality housing will help to attract people to the borough and ensure that those already here are retained – helping ensure sustainable growth. The creation of balanced, mixed and sustainable communities is clearly a national and local objective. The London Plan suggests that West London could accommodate over 40,000 additional homes by 2016, and is projected to provide about 140,000 extra jobs by 2026. Much of the employment growth should be located in the ‘Western Wedge’, the London part of which extends from Paddington through Park Royal and Wembley to Heathrow and its environs.

Local targets require Brent to provide over 11,000 new homes from 2007/08 to 2016/17, yet Brent’s Housing Register (as of 2008) lists over 22,000 households in need of accommodation. This is a reflection of the specific needs of Brent’s population; the need for larger family accommodation for reasons of overcrowding293 and the problems of homelessness. As such, Brent currently has the third highest household size in England, the second highest overcrowding level in London and the highest number of homeless families within temporary accommodation in London. For any given household size, overcrowding is higher in Black, Asian and minority ethnic households. This suggests that higher overcrowding rates among ethnic minority households have less to do with family size and more to do with poverty and housing costs. Therefore a better range of housing is essential.

The challenges for Brent include providing more affordable and more family housing; regenerating existing housing stock in Brent that is considered poor in quality; and addressing the negative impacts experienced by people living along and adjacent to the North Circular Road, including pollution and ‘community severance’ due to the interplay of road and rail networks and residential areas.

293

Privately rented housing has seen the biggest rise in overcrowding in the last decade across all London, GLA, Housing in London 2010 CLES Consulting

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Before providing more detail on Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s housing market, the main demographic factors driving the housing market in West London have been identified in the West London Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010, as follows:

West London saw a slight decline and levelling off of its population in the 1980s and early 1990s. However, since the mid 1990s and particularly between 1998 and 2001, it has seen a fairly rapid growth in its population and has since continued at a slightly lesser rate.

International migration into West London has been high in the last five years, although this has been balanced by net out-migration to the rest of the UK. However, the households that move to the region tend to be younger than those that leave.

The age structure of the population of West London shows that there are far more young adults and young families with children aged 0 to 4 years in the area than in England and Wales as a whole. Those aged over 45 years are under-represented in the population.

Data suggests that the proportion of single non-pensioner households has decreased, while the proportion of adult couple households has increased. However, there are marked differences between the boroughs. Brent has the highest proportion of multi-adult households.

Regarding internal migration flows within West London it can be seen that in general the population is moving north, west and south to the outer Boroughs. In particular, there is significant movement from Brent into Harrow, and from Ealing into Hillingdon and Hounslow.

Between 2001 and 2006, a net 105,000 international migrants moved to West London from overseas. In 2008/09 a total of 72,110 new National Insurance numbers to non-UK nationals were issued across the Boroughs of West London. This group of workers represent around 4.5 per cent of all people residing in West London. Over 14.4 per cent of all new National Insurance registrations in West London were issued to Polish nationals.

Brent has been designated by the Government as a Housing Opportunity Borough on account of its potential capacity to provide substantially more homes. The London Housing Capacity Study estimates have informed the London Planâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s aim of delivering over 11,000 additional homes in Brent between 2007/08 to 2016/17. The direction for the economic development and regeneration of the borough, and scale of population forecasts, means that Brent needs to urgently accommodate population and housing growth. The issue is how much growth is appropriate and how, where, and when it can be provided.

4.2.1

Households Household type varies by borough across West London. For example, both Hammersmith and Fulham, and Kensington and Chelsea have a much higher proportion of single (non pensioner) households and a smaller proportion of adult couples, with or without children, when compared to the rest of West London. In contrast, Hillingdon and Harrow have the highest proportion of adult couples and adult couples with children (37%), whereas over a third (35%) of households in Brent consist of multi-adult households.

Brent is home to over 270,000 residents and has a property base of 108,000 dwellings (2009) corresponding to an average household size of just over 2.6 people; with a significant growth in the six persons plus households sector and a substantial fall in single person occupancy. This is the third highest in England and nearly a quarter of Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s resident population is deemed to be living in over-crowded conditions, in particular within the southern part of the borough. Local research suggests that this trend towards larger households and over-crowding is increasing partly due to economic factors but also cultural factors with extended families requiring larger accommodation.

Demand for housing has grown strongly in general terms within Brent, illustrated in Figure 96: with an additional +11,000 households appearing since 1981; with growth outstripping the average for London and UK since 2000. Rising demand, combined with the loss of larger accommodation converted into flats for the private rented sector and new build which is predominantly 1 or 2 bed accommodation, the housing shortage is critical, reflected in rising accommodation prices.

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Figure 96: Change in the number of households, 1981 to 2006 (index 1996=100)

294

115.0 Brent

West London

London

England

110.0

105.0

100.0

95.0

90.0

85.0

4.2.2

Profile of dwellings by tenure and type Table 79: shows the composition of the dwelling stock by type. The vast majority of housing within Brent comprises of owner-occupied households (76.3% â&#x20AC;&#x201C; many of these being buy-to-let), followed by property owned by Registered Social Landlords (RSLs) (14.7%) and then local authority ownership / other public sector ownership (9.1%). The proportion of RSL owned property (particular semi-detached and flats) is higher in Brent compared with the average in London (10.9%) and nationally (9.7%).

In the 1990s it was predicted by many social housing stakeholders that peoplesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; aspirations would move away from social rented housing and towards the relative affordability of owner-occupation.

However, continued strong demand for RSL properties is perhaps not surprising given the high house prices seen in the last decade across London.

Table 79: Dwelling stock: number of dwellings by tenure, 2009 295 Local Authority (incl. owned by other LAs) number percent

Registered Social Landlords number percent

England

1,819,696

8.1

2,195,195

9.7

London

432,937

13.2

357,743

10.9

West London

65,361

11.0

55,108

9.3

Brent

9,679

9.0

15,832

14.7

Area

294 295

CLG (2009): Housing statistics. Table 406 CLG (2009): Housing statistics CLES Consulting

Other public sector number

Private owned

percent

number

percent

73,698

0.3

18,475,654

81.9

6,769

0.2

2,478,659

75.7

2,109

0.4

471,530

79.4

135

0.1

82,389

76.3

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Housing affordability Like many London boroughs Brent suffers from a shortage of good quality, affordable housing. Lack of an affordable home affects the quality of life of many of the borough’s most vulnerable people and families. Brent’s statutory housing register lists over 22,000 households (housing waiting lists have nearly doubled across London in the last decade296) who need accommodation that better meets their needs either in terms of size or affordability. Three to four thousand of these are currently in temporary accommodation in many cases outside of the borough due to the shortage of provision. The data below illustrates the average house prices in Brent are significantly higher than the national average across all housing types. Table 80: also illustrates that the growth in house prices within Brent has outstripped both the London average since 2002.

Table 80: Average house prices by type, 2009 297 Detached (£)

Semi-Detached (£)

Terraced (£)

Flat (£)

All (£)

England

Area

258,268

155,984

126,725

155,059

165,314

London

597,286

347,374

309,713

303,957

338,708

West London

662,511

428,119

366,586

253,524

323,251

Brent

553,640

373,664

352,559

250,207

309,332

Figure 97: Change in average house prices (Index 1995=100), 1995 to 2009

298

The cost of housing has consistently been among the problems most cited by Londoners as one of the worst things about living in the capital. In 2010, 22 per cent of respondents described the cost of housing as a ‘major problem’ with the quality of life in their area, up from 14 per cent in 2009.

The next biggest problems were traffic congestion (19 per cent of respondents) and the nonhousing cost of living (17 per cent).

In early 2000, around 20 per cent of all completed property sales were priced at less than £100,000 in West London. This figure was below 1 per cent of all sales from 2004 onwards. Conversely, the number of properties selling for over £200,000 has risen from 30 per cent to almost 80 per cent of the total. Since 2008 the number of properties selling for less than a particular price band has begun to rise again. With average salaries 30 per cent below the London average, buying their own home (and deposit requirements) is beyond the means of many of the borough’s residents.

296 297 298

GLA (2010): Housing in London CLG (2009): Housing statistics Ibid CLES Consulting

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House prices in Central, West and North West London have changed rapidly in recent years, particularly in relation to the London average (and the East London average) illustrated in Figure 98: Average house prices today vary greatly across London, from £150,000 (at 2008 prices) in parts of Bexley to over a million pounds in parts of Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. The highest prices are generally found close to the West End and in suburbs to the south west, west (including southern parts of Brent) and in the north of London. A large arc of lower prices runs from Walthamstow in the north east to Croydon in the south, taking in much of east London on the way.

Figure 98: Median house prices by Middle Super Output area in London, 2008

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Figure 99: illustrates the growing ratio of lower quartile house prices to lower quartile earnings over the last decade in Brent. The lowest priced housing in the borough is around ten times corresponding earnings levels; higher than the average for both London (eight times) and nationally (six times). Overall, Brent‘s average house price/average earnings ratio of 7:1 is the 6th highest in London. This confirms the findings of recent research on affordable housing in Brent that: ‘the borough has an acute problem of affordable housing’.300 However the study also suggests that previous delivery targets of 50 per cent affordable housing on every single site coming forward for development in the borough is currently (and is likely to continue to be) an ambitious target that some of the sites coming forward will be unable to achieve.

Brent would need at least 3,386 new affordable homes each year to accommodate the needs of its households who cannot afford market prices for purchase or rental; which is equivalent to almost four times its total London Plan annual target of 915 self-contained homes. While demand from highly qualified workers in West London will increase, the economy will also generate an increase in lower value and lower paid service employment as a consequence of growth in business services back-office and service sector employment. Housing strategy will therefore need to continue to provide high quality, affordable housing, to allow people with lower skills levels to enter the market, thus helping to achieve the increased levels of economic activity.

299 300

CLG (2008): Housing statistics Source: BNP Paribas (2009): Affordable Housing Viability Study – Independent research for the London Borough of Brent CLES Consulting

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Figure 99: Ratio of lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings, 1999 to 2009 301

The future role of housing development and the private rented sector are key in Brent; for a high quality private offer would help to absorb a significant proportion of those households in priority need requiring social rented accommodation with the assistance of housing benefit finance. The long-term impact of the proposed cap on benefits is not yet known, however the data suggests this poses a significant risk to Brent given current levels of affordability, and the fact that an estimated 50 per cent of residents living in the private rented sector are also claiming housing related benefits.302 Plausible responses to the cap in benefit could include:

private landlords reducing rents; households moving to areas where rents are cheaper; increasing waiting lists and homelessness claims; pressure on public and private sector landlordsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; revenue streams; and a disproportionate impact on new migrants, more reliant on private rented accommodation.

However, Brent has a strong track record of delivering new housing and the council are planning to accommodate population growth of up to 28,000 people by 2017. This will require approximately 10 to 11,000 new homes to be built over the next ten years303, with the aim of making at least 50% of these affordable. The provision of high quality, affordable homes remains central to creating sustainable communities across Brent. Brent has current planning consents for 9,355 additional homes. Over 90 per cent of which would be provided on sites with more than 10 homes.

An extensive borough housing capacity study, undertaken to prepare the LDF draft Sites Specific Allocations, has identified sites (currently without residential consent) which could provide an estimated further 14,700 homes in the period 2009/10 to 2025/26. One of the main challenges for Brent will be to work closely with the private sector to deliver the levels of investment required to be able to secure additional affordable housing. In the light of current housing market conditions, and access to investment, this looks challenging. In the longer-term housing shortages in London will continue to drive growth. As recent housing market reports for London indicate: â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;there are some signs that new housing starts (and other housing indices such as mortgages, sales) are increasing more quickly in London than in the rest of England, however the longer-term remains uncertainâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;.304

301 302 303 304

CLG (2009): Housing statistics. Table 406 Source: West London Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010 London Plan - London Housing Capacity Study estimates (2008) GLA (2010): Housing in London CLES Consulting

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Connectivity and transport Transport is a key component for underpinning economic growth. Connectivity affects the supply and movement of labour, the investment decisions of business and the success and sustainability of communities. These factors are highlighted in the Eddington Transport Study (2006) which noted the necessity to develop inter-city region, intra-city region and international transport links. Internal transport connectivity is particularly important for London Borough’s given the size of London’s population (7.7m in 2009305) - and therefore scale of daily employment based population movement.

4.3.1

Transport in West London The development of London’s radial public transport network has enabled the growth of Central London by reducing the cost of accessibility to a significant proportion of the region’s population.

Most of Central London can be reached on public transport within 45 minutes (minimum journey time) by over 1.5 million people.

West London’s population is forecast to grow by 10 per cent to 1.6 million in 2031 (based on GLA forecasts, 2010). Some transport issues faced by West London differ from the rest of London. The problems of high levels of car use and poor public transport accessibility are more severe in West London than elsewhere in London. In addition, the volume of traffic (both passengers and workers) produced by Heathrow presents significant transport and environmental problems that are unique to West London.

Congestion is a particular problem across West London's road network, which is compromising business competitiveness and also limiting its ability to attract business investment. Around four million trips are generated in West London in an average weekday, most of which are made within the region (nearly two-thirds), with the car as the dominant mode of transport (over 50 per cent).

These trends are reinforced by travel to work patterns with 40 per cent of West London residents driving to work compared with the London-wide proportion of 34 per cent.

Reducing congestion and improving sustainable modes of transport will promote further inward investment and increase development potential. As with the rest of London, the need to improve the transport infrastructure and improve quality and service levels (e.g. train lengthening, more frequent rail services stopping in West London suburbs, improved coverage and frequency of bus routes) are fundamental to ensuring that planned economic growth is delivered in a sustainable way. West London’s stakeholders have set out the areas priorities, clearly in a ten point plan, outlined below:

305

Traffic Congestion: Reducing congestion continues to be a major concern.

Integrating Land Use: Better integration of transport planning with the development of land within West London – reduce need to travel.

Facilitating Orbital Movement: Most of the major transport routes in West London provide for radial movements to and from central London. However orbital movements are poor.

Improving Interchange: Many journeys in West London require use of more than one route or mode, therefore requiring interchange.

Transport Infrastructure Master-planning: Long-term master-planning to facilitate joint development of transport and land uses and produce efficient transport systems.

Improving Bus Services: Improve local accessibility and connections to the transport network.

Heathrow: A major focus of surface access movements by airline passengers; by employees at the airport; and related airport and airline supply industries.

Complementary local services: Promote the viability and vibrancy of local centres to ensure that people have the option of staying local.

Freight: Improve the efficiency of freight services to West London business while limiting the impact of freight traffic on the community and the environment.

Customer Service: Clear and comprehensible network of public transport services.

Source: 2009 Mid Year Population estimates CLES Consulting

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Road transport Effective means of road transportation is vital in order to sustain growth and for business competitiveness. In particular, good public transport reduces traffic congestion and provides labour market mobility for low paid workers. Brent is well connected by road, in physical terms, with both central and West London; however all of the borough's large estates suffer from traffic congestion which affects business performance and makes them less attractive to inward investment. Figure 100: shows the location of the major ‘A’ roads, motorways and railway lines across West London.

Radial motorways – and their linked A roads – provide the key routes in and out London, for example the Kilburn High Road and Westway (just to the south outside the borough) connect Brent to London’s Central Activity Zone. The M4 leads into Windsor and Slough along the ‘Western Wedge’ (the ‘Silicon Corridor’ and ‘Reading growth diamond’); and the M1/A1 (Thameslink Corridor) to the north and west connecting Brent with Watford, Barnet and Luton airport.306 The M25 motorway and A406 ‘North Circular, both provide orbital transport connecting towns across outer London and with providing connections to other key transport assets in the region, such as London Heathrow Airport, and beyond along the M40 towards clusters of knowledge intensive enterprise in Oxfordshire (1 hour travel time by car from Brent).

Figure 100: Road connections in Brent and West London

While average vehicle delays are lower in Outer London than Inner or central London, there are still areas where significant congestion occurs, particularly in and around Brent and neighbouring metropolitan town centres. Without adequate transport infrastructure improvements, as population and employment levels grow, delays to private, business, public transport and freight journeys are likely to increase, with journey times deteriorating.

Average road journey times remain comparatively high in Brent (just over 3 minutes per 1 mile in 2009 307) however heavy road transport and congestion are continuing to put pressure upon parts of the borough, for example freight movements in and out of Park Royal. Peak morning and afternoon vehicle delays have increased between 2008 and 2009 more than the majority of other London borough’s (Brent was one of three borough’s with the biggest increase in delays along with Newham and Redbridge)308; correspondingly average journey times grew faster than any other London borough over the same period.

306 307 308

See later in this chapter for a full discussion of the commuting patterns within Brent and its economic hinterland Transport for London Source: Travel in London, Report 2 - Estimated average speeds and vehicle delay by borough CLES Consulting

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Figure 101: illustrates the main congestion hot-spots around Brent at morning peak traffic, highlighting the main areas of congestion along Edgeware Road, and particularly severe around Alperton (where the A40 meets the A406 North Circular) and Harlesden A404.

Figure 101: Traffic delays at morning peak (Blue lines = high, >1.5 minutes per km) 309

Table 81: shows that Brent’s ‘A’ roads carry an average of over a third of a million vehicles a day with over 0.25 million of these traffic flows being made by cars. It also re-enforces the importance of the North Circular in terms of passing road transport through the borough, carrying one-third of the daily average traffic flow through the borough and almost half of all HGV traffic.

Whilst the Circular provides a vital arterial road through West London, interviews undertaken during the LEA raised a concern that the road also creates a ‘severance’ between residents on one-side (Church End, Neasden, and Harlesden) to the other parts of the borough, acting as a perceived barrier to employment opportunities.

Table 81: Average annual daily traffic flows in Brent, 2008 310

309 310

Road

Street

2WMV

Car

Bus

LGV

HGV

Total

A406

North Circular Road

1,117

77,801

471

13,168

5,416

97,973

A404

Watford Road

343

37,490

286

2,684

616

41,419

A4005

Ealing Road

464

25,012

1,232

3,340

812

30,860

A404

Harrow Road

294

23,699

1,392

2,110

549

28,044

A5

Edgware Road

381

21,263

739

4,010

1,216

27,609

A404

Brentfield

366

22,329

935

3,066

767

27,463

A407

High Road

357

14,360

804

2,579

729

18,829

A404

Harrow Road

820

12,057

520

3,311

624

17,332

A404

Manor Park Road

315

11,489

798

1,855

681

15,138

A4089

Wembley Park Drive

76

9,577

347

582

106

10,688

Source: TfL (2010) Ibid CLES Consulting

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Public transport Good public transport links are essential for moving people between their homes and workplaces.

Transport contributes to the efficient working of labour markets if people are able to access a wide choice of jobs within reasonable travelling time. Overall Brent is well connected by public transport including more rail and underground stations than any other borough in London.

Key stations such as Wembley Central station is served by the Bakerloo line (Harrow & Wealdstone to Elephant & Castle, via Baker St, Oxford Circus, and Waterloo). Wembley Park station is served by the Jubilee line (Stanmore to Stratford, via Baker St, Green Park, Waterloo, and on to Canary Wharf); and the Metropolitan line (suburban NW London to Aldgate, via Harrow-on-the-Hill, Baker St, Kings Cross, and Liverpool St). However there is only one orbital route, the North London railway, which requires investment to overcome high demand.

Brent also has a comprehensive bus network providing important linkages throughout the borough, especially in residential areas and in relation to employment opportunities. Services have improved substantially since 2001 as a result of heavy investment in routes and priority networks serving town centres within and outside of the borough. Continuing improvements are outlined in the LDF covering key transport interchanges at Wembley, Alperton, First Central and Queen's Park.

Figure 102: Brent public transport map

The method of commuting chosen by Brent residents differs from that of London residents as a whole and reflects the nature of the journeys made by Brent residents, and the nature of the access to the wider transport infrastructure within the borough. Approximately the same proportion of Brent residents travel to work by car as the London average, whereas a much higher proportion than the London average â&#x20AC;&#x201C; one in four compared to one in five - travel by underground or light rail, reflecting the ease of access to multiple lines of the London Underground network available to residents of Brent. Cycling accounts for less than 2 per cent of journeys to work for Brent residents.

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Figure 103: below illustrates that many of the local commutes to work, especially to Wembley, Park Royal and east-west across the borough (for example from Harlesden to Brent Cross) are reliant on bus transport; whereas most private transport use/commutes take place within the borough, shown in Figure 104:. The map also illustrates the significant levels of car use to commute to Heathrow to work, as well as commuting in the North London corridor towards Stanmore and Watford.

Figure 103: Brent public transport â&#x20AC;&#x201C; commuting by bus

311

Figure 104: Brent private transport â&#x20AC;&#x201C; commuting by car

311 312

Source: ONS, Census 2001 Travel-to-work statistics Ibid CLES Consulting

312

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Figure 105: provides a present snap-shot of passengers on the Bakerloo Line. It gives a view on the level of connectedness between places in the borough, and also illustrates that the strongest rail commuting connections are between Brent and the CAZ. Figure 105: Bakerloo Line (journeys by distance travelled - km), 2010

313

313

From: Kenton (~20km to central zone)

From: South Kenton (~19km to central zone)

From: North Wembley (~18km to central zone)

From: Wembley Central (~17km to central zone)

From: Stonebridge Park (~14km to central zone)

From: Harlesden (~12km to central zone)

From: Willesden Junction (~10km to central zone)

From: Kensal Green (~10km to central zone)

Source: Transport for London (2010); data does not provide information on final destination CLES Consulting

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Figure 106: provides a present snap-shot of passengers on the Metropolitan Line. It gives a view on the level of connectedness between places in the borough, and also illustrates that the strongest rail commuting connections are between Brent and the CAZ. Figure 106: Metropolitan and Jubilee lines (journeys by distance travelled - km), 2010 314 From: Northwick Park (~20km to central zone)

From: Preston Road (~17km to central zone)

From: Wembley Park (~16km to central zone)

From: Neasden (~12km to central zone)

From: Dollis Hill (~10km to central zone)

From: Willesden Green (~9km to central zone)

From: Kilburn (~6km to central zone )

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For most of Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s residents it is possible to find high frequency public transport services operating generally less than 500m from their home, especially around the southern parts of the borough.

However there remain â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;holesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; in the network, illustrated in Figure 108: which broadly correlate with the presence of open space. Local stakeholders are working with TfL to address this, in particular the Preston area (a neighbourhood with and older age profile and lower access to private transport) to the north of the borough.

Figure 107: London underground connections

Figure 108: Public transport accessibility (red=higher access, white=very low access)

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Crossrail and High Speed Rail 2 Future strategic transport developments in London include Crossrail and High Speed 2. Crossrail remains scheduled to open in 2017 and will add 10 per cent to London’s transport capacity, bring 1.5 million people within a 60-minute commute of the city and help to create an estimated 30,000 high-value jobs. It is anticipated that the development and completion of Crossrail will add to London’s competitiveness, spur demand for development at Crossrail station sites and improve accessibility to employment opportunities. As shown in Figure 109: below, Crossrail will enter West London at West Drayton in Hillingdon and will connect the existing stations of Heathrow Airport, Hayes & Harlington, Southall, Hanwell, West Ealing, Ealing Broadway and Acton Mainline before it enters its tunnelled section at Paddington. The benefits accruing through increased accessibility to employment centres in West London, particularly in Ealing, Hillingdon and Hounslow, are estimated as £15.4m, £15m and £6m per annum respectively.315 There are proposals for a high speed rail link between central London and Scotland via Birmingham High Speed 2 or HS2; however current cuts to Government funding will continue to put pressure upon delivery of such schemes in terms of both timelines and completion. Furthermore, previous government announcements identified Old Oak Common in West London as a preferred site for a new station and major rail interchange on the HS2 route. Under this proposal the station would be constructed on the site of the Old Oak Common railway depot, and would provide a major transport interchange with a number of other mainline and commuter rail services, including Crossrail and the Great Western Main Line.

If HS2 proceeds it will enter London from the west and a West London interchange connecting to Heathrow to HS2 will be required, whether at Old Oak Common or elsewhere in the sub-region. The HS2 interchange would provide associated development opportunities and a significant boost to the regional economy through improved transport connections. Potential exists to link West London to Crossrail and Highspeed 2 - increasing access for residents in Harlesden and Stonebridge - should connections beyond the south of the borough at Old Oak Common and the Willesden Hub progress.

This would potentially increase access for residents in Harlesden and Stonebridge (two of the most deprived areas) to access the jobs in town and areas to the South of the area (i.e. Westfield and Hammersmith & Fulham).

Figure 109: Major transport schemes and opportunities in London 316

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Source: Colin Buchanan (2009) Source: The London Plan CLES Consulting

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Transport investments will continue to change the relative accessibility of one place in London against another. Significant transport programmes across London include: upgrades to the London Underground; Crossrail; the Thameslink Upgrade; and an extension of the East London Line. All of these projects will reduce journey times across London, in particular to Central London. While this will reinforce the competitive advantage of Central London – a benefit to London’s globally active economy as well as local businesses – it will also improve accessibility and provide economic opportunities within other parts of London.

This means more places will have access to larger markets, which could tip the balance in favour of growth in these areas, and consideration therefore needs to be made of how Brent can connect with some of these major transport investments (for example Crossrail, which will provide a new eastwest spine running through central London) to provide further accessibility to London labour markets and trade opportunities. As the funded transport capacity increases come into effect over the next ten years, the number of jobs that Brent’s residents can reach within 45 minutes will also increase.

Given limited resources it is essential that transport funding continues to be focussed where it has the greatest impact and achieves the best value for money. A smart approach to development is being adopted which makes optimum use of the limited funds available for transport by focusing transport investment which serves sites where broader investment will be taking place, whilst at the same time ensuring that the sites are in the right locations so far as efficient and sustainable transport is concerned.

Brent’s Core Strategy identifies that major trip generating activity should be delivered in areas most accessible by public transport, in particular near Brent's main transport interchanges, town centres and Opportunity / Growth Areas; this also contributes to the objective of supporting higher density development located within and around local town centres.

4.4

Sustainable economic development

4.4.1

Quality of life and environmental considerations The quality of life offer in a given location has a strong influence in retaining enterprising and talented young people. Several factors are important in determining the selection of a place in which to live and work: a pleasant environment and architecture; good accessibility; outdoor recreation and sporting facilities; a good choice of housing; a range of economic opportunities; quality local schools; and cultural diversity. The combination of cultural and sport assets, affordable housing, access to green-space, and economic opportunities offer the high quality of life needed to make Brent a leading place to live and work. Their continued development is essential to the area’s continued prosperity.

There are a number of areas where London may look relatively unattractive in terms of quality of life. London does not score highly in international comparisons of liveability. In the 2008 Mercer Index it was ranked 38th. It does not make the top 10 in other similar surveys. In part, London suffers a similar fate to most of the other large global cities (New York, Paris, Tokyo, which all ranked between 32nd and 48th) in that its size and the age of its infrastructure face more stress and more bottlenecks when compared to smaller more compact and relatively newer cities.

Some of the areas in which London is considered to perform poorly include environmental quality, transport congestion, housing/living costs, crime and provision of public services. Climate change is also predicted to result in London experiencing warmer and wetter winters, drier and hotter summers, and an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events including: increased likelihood of flooding from all sources (tidal, fluvial, surface water, sewers and ground water); extended periods of drought could diminish water supplies; overheating as a result of hotter summers. These all represent potential risks to London’s economy.

While the provision of additional housing in Brent will help address the central issue of future population growth (and economic prosperity) it needs to contribute to the creation of a safe, secure and sustainable environment. Housing also needs to be accompanied by the necessary facilities and open spaces to ensure a good quality of life, together with the social infrastructure necessary to enable communities to operate. In Brent, this is made a more challenging task by pressures on land-use (particularly in the south of the borough) as well as the size and diversity of the borough’s different communities of neighbourhood, identity and interest, as well as the impacts of poverty.

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Sustainability is at the heart of national, regional, and local planning and development policy. There are very clear drivers to encourage development to be environmentally, socially and economically sustainable, in particular:

the effects of climate change, and likely impact on the environment; emerging sustainable technologies becoming increasingly available and sophisticated; tougher EU and UK legislation, particularly through building regulations; global resource scarcity, particularly with regards to fuel and energy.

The co-ordination of development projects within the corridor may provide opportunities to create the critical mass required for the delivery of major sustainable infrastructure such as district heating and cooling, local energy generation and distribution. Sustainable development UK government policy and the London Plan call for all new homes to be zero carbon by 2016. To achieve this, the following requirements have been identified:

4.4.2

ensuring the most efficient use of land and existing buildings; ensuring construction resource efficiency; use of locally sourced materials; use of sustainable building materials; minimising energy use (through passive solar design, natural ventilation, green roofs etc.); managing overheating; ensuring energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions.

London and the low carbon economy The Mayor has made a commitment to reduce carbon emissions by 60% by 2025, positioning London as a world class low carbon capital and in doing so creating opportunities for London people and London businesses. It is anticipated that the low carbon economy will be a lever for job creation and economic growth, and potentially a way to tackle long term worklessness. The transition to a low carbon economy, particularly the speed of transition needed to meet ambitious national and London targets will have significant implications for employment and skills.

The London Plan seeks to encourage a 20 per cent reduction in carbon emissions through the sustainable use of energy including using less energy, supplying energy efficiently, and incorporating renewable energy within new developments. This will include the following initiatives:

use of combined cooling, heat, and power (CCHP) and combined heat and power (CHP); providing local networks for CCHP and CHP systems to link up a number of developments; optimising potential for on-site renewable energy generation; photo-voltaic and solar water heating.

All new development should include elements of the above. The potential for large scale networks for CHP and CCHP may be possible by linking between the development schemes within Wembley.

The scale of growth across Brent (housing, associated social infrastructure and commercial) will significantly increase the level of carbon emissions in the borough. Even at the current stage of development West London produces significantly more of Londonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s CO2 emissions than any other sub-region; as much as north and south London combined.

The principal cause of this is the presence of Heathrow Airport in the region. However action to reduce emissions from air travel is being taken at the national and international levels. Table 82: shows that the current carbon footprint in Brent is 5.0 tonnes, lower than most other West London boroughâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s and lower than the London average of 5.9 tonnes per capita.

Table 82: CO2 tonnes from industrial, domestic property and road transport, 2007 317 Area London Brent Ealing Hammersmith Harrow Hillingdon Hounslow

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Industrial and commercial 20,159 531 663 510 279 1,014 676

Domestic 16,225 586 645 356 509 560 470

Road transport 8,229 243 324 182 157 432 331

ONS and DECC (2010) CLES Consulting

Total 44,614 1,361 1,631 1.049 944 2,006 1,477

% change per capita 2005-07 -1.3 -1.4 1.9 0.0 -2.9 -5.9 1.6

Per capita emissions 5.9 5.0 5.3 6.1 4.4 8.0 6.7

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Under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, London’s carbon emissions are expected to fall 13 per cent on 1990 levels to 40.3 million tonnes (Mt) by 2025. Committed government and Mayoral policies would achieve additional reductions of 7.5Mt and 6.4Mt respectively. The Mayor’s draft climate change mitigation strategy identifies a number of additional Mayoral measures that with government support and funding would save 3.8 MtCO2 per year by 2025, and a number of government measures, proposed by the Committee on Climate Change, bringing the reduction to 60 per cent.318 One future driver of change within both the UK and London economy will be the implementation of charges for Carbon output, referred to as the Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC). The government hopes CRC will be as powerful as the climate change levy and EU emissions trading scheme in reducing emissions from industry and it is expected to play a key role in delivering an 80 per cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2050.

Sectors covered by the scheme319 - typically energy intensive sectors within the manufacturing sector (such as metal manufacturing, glass production and heavy engineering) generate around 55m tonnes of CO2, roughly equivalent to 10 per cent of the UK's total CO2 emissions, and by 2020 the government estimates that the CRC will reduce carbon emissions by at least four million tonnes a year, saving the equivalent of around £1bn per year on corporate and public sector energy bills.

An estimated 3,000 to 4,000 private UK companies and public sector organisations will have to sign up as full participants. A further 20,000 companies and organisations will be required to disclose information on their energy use, but will not become full participants. There are five phases for the introductory period of the scheme, which runs to March 2013.

Housing and energy use Whilst Brent’s businesses have an important role to play in minimising the areas carbon footprint, and developing their products to capitalise on the opportunities which environmental technologies and services brings, household energy consumption is responsible for a lion’s share (30 to 40%) of the UK’s carbon footprint. London’s domestic buildings account for 36 per cent of the City’s overall CO2 emissions.

Space heating and cooling accounts for 56 per cent of total emissions from housing, compared to 26 per cent from hot water heating, 15 per cent from lighting and appliances, and three per cent from cooking. The amount of energy used for cooling is expected to increase as summers get hotter, while the amount of energy required for space and water heating in new homes will reduce as new homes are built to be more energy and water efficient.

Improving the energy efficiency of the borough’s housing stock and commercial property will have an significant role to play in future sustainable development. It will be important to work alongside wide range of local and national partners to consider how to unlock delivery of retrofitting of energy efficiency measures to existing homes at scale within the borough. This has benefits not only in terms of carbon reduction, but also in terms of fuel poverty, quality of life, and economic benefits in terms of jobs, skills and local supply chain development.

4.4.3

Fuel poverty When looking at income after housing costs, those living in rented housing (particularly private rented accommodation) are much more likely to be in fuel poverty. Fuel poverty is concentrated in deprived areas of London and among vulnerable households as illustrated in Figure 110:. Fuel poverty tends to be highest in areas that combine low incomes and poor home energy efficiency.

The spatial distribution of fuel poverty is similar to that of overall deprivation, with inner east London showing the highest concentrations and concentrations of fuel poverty within the southern parts of the borough, around Stonebridge, Harlesden and Kensal Green.

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Source: cited in GLA (2010): Housing in London Organisations that use more than 6,000 Megawatt hours (MWh) of electricity a year must register as participants in the scheme and provide annual information on their energy use – typically relating to energy intensive manufacturing sector businsesses

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Figure 110: Estimated proportions of households in London in fuel poverty

4.4.4

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Commercial waste management Brent collected a total of 111,000 tonnes of municipal waste in 2007/2008. Although Brent has an allowance set by the Government for the amount of waste that can go to landfill under the Landfill Allowance Trading Scheme (LATS), this allowance will decrease each year until 2020 and covers all waste arising from the borough. In addition, landfill capacity is reaching its limits so there is a need to consider alternative ways of handling waste, which also supports the Mayor of Londonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s agenda to tackle climate change.

It is estimated that by 2015 Brent will generate 381,000 tonnes of municipal, commercial and industrial waste and 442,000 tonnes by 2020. The Mayor of London's waste apportionment figure for Brent is 377,000 tonnes per annum.321 Developers, businesses and householders are expected to play their part in reducing the overall waste arising, and ensure that all waste is managed toward the upper end of the Waste Hierarchy (i.e. reduce / re-use).

4.4.5

Water management and flood risk Brentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s core strategy states that measures to cope with some more frequent weather events which may result from climate change, e.g. heat waves, drought, storms and flooding, will need to be built into all new developments (commercial and residential) within the borough. Of particular relevance to Brent is the increased risk of flooding associated with climate change, with certain parts of the borough prone to potential problems of flash-flooding.

Brent has produced a Strategic Flood Risk Assessment (SFRA) for the borough, which details areas of flood risk (from rivers, surface water, ground water, sewer, canal and reservoir flooding) and this should be referred to when considering building in the borough. The SFRA has also informed the production of LDF documents, including the allocation of sites which have been subject to the sequential test and, where relevant, the exception test. Current assessments suggest a low probability of flooding â&#x20AC;&#x201C; even though parts of the borough remain within the River Brent flood-plain.

320 GLA: Housing in London 2010 - This map is based on estimates modelled by the Centre for Sustainable Energy based on data from the 2001 Census.

321 The London Plan

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Figure 111: Indicative flood risk, London, 2008

4.4.6

Green Infrastructure Improving access to green infrastructure is vital to both the residents and economy of Brent.

Continuing to develop the river corridor would help deliver a recreational and ecological resource, provide access to green spaces along its length, and connect more central areas to the greenbelt.

Future positive uses could include improving the quality and accessibility of the land, conserving and enhancing the biodiversity value and supporting initiatives that contribute to sustainable development, including floodwater retention and water gathering areas.

Protecting and enhancing local open spaces will help to attract and retain new residents in the borough, at the same time helping to raise environmental quality of life, in particular near those areas suffering from multiple-deprivation and social exclusion, as illustrated in Figure 112:.

GLA Economics has completed research on the ‘value’ of green spacey within London.322 The study showed that the amount of green space in wards was in the top five most important factors which explained the variation in average house prices. Support should be given to the enhancement and management of open spaces for recreational, sporting and amenity use and to the improvement of both open spaces and the built environment for biodiversity and nature conservation.

This includes new parks in Church End and Wembley and improvements to existing open spaces in Alperton, South Kilburn and Burnt Oak/Colindale growth areas. Other key assets include The Welsh Harp Reservoir (a site of special scientific interest), The Grand Union Canal and the River Brent – part of the Blue Ribbon network.

322

Source: GLA Economics (2003) Valuing Greenness – green spaces, house prices and Londoners’ priorities CLES Consulting

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Figure 112: Green-space (green shading) in relation to IMD (dark=high deprivation)

Figure 113: Green-space (green shading) and â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;open space deficiencyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; (red shading)

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Source: Brent Core Strategy (2010) Source: Brent Core Strategy (2010) CLES Consulting

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Summary findings Brent has experienced significant growth in its population and housing requirement over the last decade putting significant pressure upon the housing market...

Rising demand, combined with the loss of larger accommodation converted into flats for the private rented sector and new build which is predominantly 1 or 2 bed accommodation, has resulted in a critical housing shortage which is reflected in rising accommodation prices in the borough.

Rising accommodation costs has meant that buying their own home is beyond the means of many of the borough’s residents...

With average salaries in Brent 30% below the London average. The lowest priced housing in the borough is around ten times corresponding earnings levels; higher than the average for both London (eight times) and nationally (six times).

As house prices have climbed in Brent and London, private sector rents have followed...

Average weekly rents in the private sector remain relatively high compared with average earnings across the whole of the West London area. When housing benefit reforms come into force in 2012, impacts will hit London hardest of any region. Households will face weekly losses of £20 or more, far more than the total in the rest of England.

Brent benefits from a well developed transport network, which includes the Underground, National Rail services, and an extensive bus network...

A significant amount of investment has been made in transport infrastructure across London and within Brent. For example the rebuilding of Wembley Park station - a flagship project funded by the public sector - increased the capacity of the station by 70 per cent ahead of the opening of the new Wembley Stadium in 2007.

Public transport infrastructure provides high levels of access for most of the borough...

For most of Brent’s residents it is possible to find high frequency public transport services operating generally less than 500m from their homes. Whilst there are strong radial connections from west London to central London, these are often crowded or congested. Enhancing east-west capacity and managing congestion is clearly an urgent need.

However immediate challenges include congestion and access to employment sites...

Average road journey times are comparatively high in Brent when compared to the London average (just over 3 minutes per 1 mile in 2009). Heavy road transport and congestion are continuing to put pressure upon parts of the borough, in particular freight movements in and out of Park Royal. Peak morning and afternoon vehicle delays have increased between 2008 and 2009 more than the majority of other London boroughs.

Other longer-term opportunities include developing accessibility and links to Crossrail and High Speed rail development...

Transport investments will continue to change the relative accessibility of one place in London against another. Significant transport programmes across London include: upgrades to the London Underground; Crossrail; the Thameslink Upgrade; and an extension of the East London Line. While this will reinforce the competitive advantage of Central London, it will also improve accessibility and provide economic opportunities across West London.

Upgrading housing stock across Brent will have a key role in helping to reduce the borough’s carbon footprint...

The carbon footprint in Brent is lower than the London average and fell between 2005 and 2007.

The London Plan seeks to encourage a 20 per cent reduction in carbon emissions through the sustainable use of energy including using less energy, supplying energy efficiently, and incorporating renewable energy within new developments. Household energy consumption is responsible for a lion’s share (30 to 40%) of London’s carbon footprint and remains a key focus for both investment (in retro-fitting older housing stock) and job creation in the construction sector and its supply chain.

The quality of the local environment and promoting sustainability are central to the borough’s vision for the future...

Brent has more than 1,000 acres of public open space, including Fryent Country Park and the Welsh Harp reservoir, as well as formal Victorian parks such as Gladstone Park and Roundwood Park, plus the newly-built Northwick Park golf course. However, continuing to address environmental improvements across the borough will have a significant impact on resident’s quality of life, in particular those living adjacent to the North Circular Road.

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Context and priorities Housing The London Housing Strategy was published in February 2010 and sets out a number of policies around tenure, design and delivery that aim to ensure that housing in the capital continues to serve the needs of residents. The Strategy sets out that 50,000 affordable homes will be provided between 2008 and 2012 whilst removing the 50 per cent affordable housing target and putting a greater emphasis on intermediate homes. There is also to be a greater emphasis on providing a mix of homes, especially family housing.

In general, there is an emphasis on ensuring that people in London have better access to information on housing options to support personal decision-making. In the provision of future housing, there are a number of policies within the strategy aimed at ensuring the highest quality, sustainable design. The strategy also states that housing regeneration must be aligned with complementary policy to ensure better economic sustainability amongst residents and to promote mixed communities. The strategy also recognises the need to develop new and flexible financing models to support delivery of housing in the post-recession period.

A critical issue for the council, given the shortage of housing, and particularly affordable housing, is to balance housing with employment development. These need to be considered together in relation to improving economic competitiveness and the attraction of employment locations within the borough, and maybe an argument supporting the continued incorporation of mixed use development onto appropriate areas within or on the edge of employment areas.

Finally, as set out in more detail earlier, the future role of housing development and the private rented sector are key in Brent; for a high quality private offer would help to absorb a significant proportion of those households in priority need requiring social rented accommodation with the assistance of housing benefit finance. The long-term impact of the proposed cap on benefits is not yet known, however data on both benefits and accommodation costs suggests this poses a significant risk to Brent’s residents given current levels of affordability. An immediate priority for the borough will be to help residents in receipt of benefits by providing welfare rights advice in partnership with other local agencies. In the longer-term priorities in Brent are to create more housing within the growth areas of Wembley, Alperton, South Kilburn, Church End, Burnt Pak and Colindale – with 50 per cent of these designated as affordable housing, and 25 per cent of all new build properties suitable for families.325 Building new mixed development, integrating housing, commercial and environmental improvements in key town centres will help ensure long-term, resilient and sustainable economic development.

Transport The Mayor’s Transport Strategy emphasises the need to improve the connections to and from Central London, but also for employment creation in Outer London Boroughs to create a more polycentric pattern of employment/land use that will lead to a more economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable London. The Transport Strategy reaffirmed the Mayor’s support for Crossrail, which will have a significant impact on the regeneration across London.

It will be important for Brent to assess how it can also draw on the opportunities Crossrail provides, in particular potential exists to link West London to Crossrail and Highspeed 2 - increasing access for residents in Harlesden and Stonebridge - should connections beyond the south of the borough at Old Oak Common progress.

Despite significant investment in transport improvements, in certain areas of the borough, congestion and inaccessibility are limiting economic growth and investment. The environmental benefits of reducing traffic on some of the roads within the borough would be significant, but some industries on Park Royal in particular are dependent on road transport and there are clear conflicts between economic and environmental goals.

Working with partners in Park Royal to improve access and public transport services to the area will help to reduce barriers to employment; and a focus on developing orbital public transport access to key employment sites across Brent - high-speed orbital bus based services connecting outer London town centres - will help to improve access to jobs for local residents.

325

Brent Council (2010): Brent Our Future 2010 to 2014, One Borough, One Community, One Council CLES Consulting

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Environment The Community Green Deal326 and investment in a low carbon economy are key policy objectives for the Government, with the need to improve 7 million homes by 2020 and to reach out to 26 million existing homes by 2050. The Deal is proposed as a locally-based area-wide approach to the delivery of the Government’s Green Deal programme and ultimately the UK’s medium to long-term carbon reduction targets; it also proposes the delivery of whole home retrofits for communities of between 750 and 3,000 homes.

Recent research327 suggests that partnerships of Local Authorities, Registered Providers and ALMOs are best placed to deliver area-based programmes in partnership with local communities. The model would be led by social housing stock investment, but would in the process draw in owner occupiers and private landlords, with works being carried out by trusted local delivery partnerships.

By delivering programmes at scale there will be greater certainty of achieving domestic carbon reduction targets and at lower cost.

Finance is available for these projects but they will need to be setup in a way that maximises the benefits of any initial funding and addresses the perceived risks of potential finance providers. If the model is set up correctly it will be possible to attract large-scale ‘second tier’ institutional investors looking to invest £100 to £300m or more in large, well co-ordinated projects. This scale can be achieved by aggregating community-scale projects into one investment opportunity – starting from around 15,000 to 30,000 homes. Projects would create the certainty to drive investment in the local supply chain and re-skilling, providing jobs and growth in a market with an estimated value of £15 billion/annum.

The Mayor has published “Leading to a Greener London” and has included a wide range of measures in the London Plan to improve the quality and sustainability of the environment, to protect and improve London’s areas of excellence, and to encourage massive improvements in the most degraded places. A particular priority will be to encourage the innate vitality and diversity of London’s neighbourhoods; continuing to plant street trees, create space for growing food, and expand the network of green spaces by upgrading run-down parks.

London’s ED Plan also outlines the drive towards London’s transition to a low carbon economy and the economic opportunities this will create. The key strands underlying this objective include developing the expertise and capacity of businesses and technologies to assist adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, for the benefit of London, the UK and the world, which will also provide economic opportunities and new jobs for London’s businesses; and taking measures to reduce London’s carbon emissions, ensuring it is adapted to cope with the impacts of climate change. Strategic partners will therefore aim to promote resource efficiency, influence public procurement practices, support research and development, and use its land to spur the development of green enterprise districts, business networks, and ‘greening’ London’s residential and commercial property.

Upgrading the housing stock across Brent would play an important role in reducing the carbon footprint of the borough. Here the public sector can have a critical role through supporting the growth of products and services through the way it procures. With the right processes in place, Brent can actively support the development of local businesses in the local supply chain (in particular those enterprises linked to building technologies) offering smarter greener products and services.

This purchasing power can also be leveraged to support the development of the construction / building technologies sector within Brent and to encourage innovation.

Finally, ensuring the stewardship of both the built and natural environment remains central to future quality of life in the borough, improving existing town centres and ensuring new development is completed in a sustainable manner – sensitive to local need and the environment. The plans to tackle the poor environment and air quality along the North Circular, through redesigning local housing and making better use of open spaces, will have an important impact on residents lives.

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Link: http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/consumers/green_deal/green_deal.aspx {accessed December 2010} Link: http://www.urbedftp.co.uk/SHAP/101129%20Community%20Green%20Deal%20report_Final%20print%20version.pdf CLES Consulting

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Suggested Priorities Suggested priorities emerging from the analysis are:

Create more housing within the growth areas of Wembley, Alperton, South Kilburn, Church End, Burnt Pak and Colindale;

ensure that 50 per cent new development is designated as affordable housing, and 25 per cent of all new build properties suitable for families;

explore new delivery vehicles and tenure types that will support new supply and regeneration in the current economic climate;

ensure an appropriate mix of tenures, sizes, locations and household types that will support sustainable communities;

ensure that social regeneration objectives, including employment and the creation of sustainable neighbourhoods are at the centre of new housing and regeneration schemes;

explore the potential to finance development of housing stock â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;retro-fittingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; â&#x20AC;&#x201C; and use local procurement to support the development of the construction / building technologies sector;

continue to encourage people into employment, training and volunteering opportunities related to low carbon technologies (including building technologies and energy management);

continue working with partners in Park Royal to improve access and public transport services to reduce barriers to employment;

lobby for investment in high-speed orbital bus based services connecting outer London town centres to help improve access to jobs for local residents;

ensure waste advice to businesses through Streetcare, Environmental Health, Trading Standards, Health, Safety and Licensing etc;

continue to deliver environmental improvements to the residential areas surrounding the North Circular, ensuring both access to open space and quality urban design.

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APPENDIX 1 BIBLIOGRAPHY

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BIS (2010): Business Industry and Skills, Department for (BIS) A Strategy for Sustainable Growth BIS (2010): The Current and Future Role of Technology and Innovation Centres in the UK BIS and HM Treasury (2010): Financing a Private Sector Recovery – HMG response to consultation BIS (2010): Local Growth: Realising Every Place’s Potential – The Local Growth White Paper BIS (2010): Skills for Sustainable Growth BNP Paribas Real Estate (2009): Affordable Housing Viability Study for London Borough of Brent CB Richard Ellis (2010): Global Market View City Growth (2006): Heart of South London Summary Document: Helping South London prosper City Growth (2006): The Western Arc Summary Document: Driving Wealth Creation in Park Royal, Wembley & White City City Strategy (2009): Business Plan Refresh City Strategy Learning Network (2010): Learning the Lessons from City Strategy Cleaner and Greener Scrutiny Committee (2010): Agenda Item 6: Mayor of London’s Transport Strategy CLG (2009): Local Index of Child Well-Being Summary Report College of Northwest London (2009): College Prospectus Community Links (2009): The Informal Economy in the London Borough of Brent: A Quantitative and Qualitative Picture and Strategic Approach Deloitte (2007): The Heathrow Phenomenon: Economic Impact Analysis Fleming, T. (2005): The Western Wedge: Assets, Challenges, and the Way Ahead GLA (2005): Our London Our Future Planning for London’s Growth II Main Report - November 2005 GLA (2006): Muslims in London GLA (2006): Muslims in London GLA (2006): Working Paper 15: Worklessness in London Explaining the difference between London and the UK GLA (2007): Current Issues Note 12 - Why are there so few part-time jobs in London?

GLA (2008): Current Issues Note 22 Patterns of low pay in London GLA (2008): London’s Central Business District: Its global importance GLA (2009a): Preliminary Economic Evidence Base for GLA Group Strategy Documents GLA (2009b): Working Paper 36 Commuting patterns in London by qualification level and employment location GLA (2009c): Economic Evidence Base –to support the public consultation drafts of the London Plan, the Transport Strategy and the Economic Development Strategy GLA (2009d): London Tourism Action Plan 2009 GLA (2009e): Working Paper 37 London’s logistics sector GLA (2010a): Economic Evidence Base for Mayor’s Economic Development Plan GLA (2010b): Housing in London GLA (2010d): London’s Economic Outlook: Spring 2010 GLA (2010e): London’s Economy Today, October 2010 GLA (2010f): Annual Report 2010 GLA (2010g): GLA Economics Working Paper 40: London’s Creative Workforce, 2009 Update GLA (2010h): Early years interventions to address health inequalities in London – the economic case GOS (2010): Technology and Innovation Futures: UK Growth Opportunities for the 2020s Greater London Enterprise (2008a): Good Practice Guide: Tracking Clients Along their Journey to Work Greater London Enterprise (2008b): Mapping interventions for priority groups along route-ways to work Greater London Enterprise (2009): Evaluation of the West London Area Programmes 2007-9 GVA Grimley & Henley Business School (2010): Corporate Real Estate Survey GVA Grimley (2007): Wembley Development Options: Commercial Viability Assessment GVA Grimley (2009): The Day After Tomorrow The Post Recession World & Implications for Commercial Property GVA Grimley (2010a): Business Parks Review, Summer 2010 GVA Grimley (2010b): Industrial Property Intelligence, Spring 2010 GVA Grimley (2010c): Economic & Property Market Review, Q3 2010 Heathrow (2009): Heathrow Employment Survey 2008/09: summary report HM Government (2010): Local Growth: realising every place’s potential IMF, & University of Cambridge (2010): Value of Food & Drink Manufacturing to the UK King, S. (2009): GLA Economics Working Paper 34: Outer London – Economic data and statistics London Borough of Barnet (2005a): The Area Today, in Cricklewood, Brent Cross and West Hendon Development Framework London Borough of Brent (2001): Regeneration Action Plan 2001 to 2021 London Borough of Brent (2005b): Children and Young People’s Plan London Borough of Brent (2005c): Business Tourism Development and Promotion in Brent Marketing Surgery Report London Borough of Brent (2006a): Brent Local Implementation Plan 2006-2011 [updated 2009] London Borough of Brent (2006b): Community Consultation and Engagement Strategy 2006-2009 London Borough of Brent (2006c): Report from the Director of Policy and Regeneration: Brent’s Community Strategy

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London Borough of Brent (2006d): Corporate Strategy 2006-2010 London Borough of Brent (2007a): Wembley Retail Development Options: Commercial Viability Assessment London Borough of Brent (2007b): Economic Development Plan for Brent London Borough of Brent (2007c): Introduction to Brent and the Planning Service, in Sharing Development in Brent: Annual

Monitoring Report 2006/7 London Borough of Brent (2007e): Health Profile 2007 London Borough of Brent (2008): Story of Place, in Local Area Agreement 2008-11 London Borough of Brent (2009a): A new image for the North Circular Framework for change London Borough of Brent (2009b): A New Image for the North Circular: Framework for Action London Borough of Brent (2009c): Section 5: Implementation & Delivery, in The Wembley Masterplan London Borough of Brent (2009d): Core Strategy London Borough of Brent (2009e): A Vision for Alperton London Borough of Brent (2009f): Shaping the Future of Housing in Brent - Housing Strategy 2009-2014 London Borough of Brent (2010a): Childcare sufficiency assessment update London Borough of Brent (2010b): Core Strategy Examination in Public Further information prepared by the London Borough of Brent - Employment land survey data 2009 in relation to Matters 4 London Borough of Brent (2010c): Core Strategy Examination in Public London Borough of Brent (2010d): Local Development Framework: Core Strategy London Borough of Brent (2010e): Brent Economic Bulletin: May 2010 edition London Borough of Brent (2010f): Draft Regeneration Action Plan 2010-2012 London Borough of Brent (2010g): Brent: Our Future 2010-2014. One Borough, One Community, One Council London Development Agency (2010): The Low Carbon Capital: London as a Global Leader of the Low Carbon Economy London Skills and Employment Board (2010): London Statement Of Skills Priority 2011/12 London Skills and Employment Board (2010): From Recession to Recovery: The Skills and Employment Strategy for London (2009-2014) Mayhew Associates (2008): Brent population estimation, household composition and change - A comparative analysis between 2005 and 2007 Mayor of London (2003): Play it right Asian Creative Industries in London Mayor of London (2006): The London Plan: Sub-regional Development Framework for West London Mayor of London (2008a): Park Royal: Opportunity Area Planning Framework Mayor of London (2008b): The London Plan: Spatial Development Strategy for Greater London Mayor of London (2008c): WAY TO GO! Mayor of London (2009a): London Office Policy Review 2009 Mayor of London (2009b): Rising to the challenge: The Mayorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Economic Development Strategy (Public Consultation Draft) Mayor of London (2009c): Leading to a greener London - An environment programme for the capital Mayor of London (2010a): The London Health Inequalities Strategy Mayor of London (2010b): The London Housing Strategy 2010 Mayor of London and London Skills and Employment Board (2009): Londonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Future The Skills and Employment Strategy for London 2008-2013 North London Strategic Alliance (2009): Northwest London to Luton Corridor: Prospectus for Sustainable Co-ordinated Growth West London Housing Partnership (2010): West London Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2009 Oxford Economics and LDA (2010): Destinations 2020: Employment projections across sectors and occupations in London Partners for Brent (2001): A regeneration strategy for Brent 2001-2021 Partners for Brent (2005): Draft Community Strategy 2006-2010 Price, D. (2009): London Borough of Brent Local Development Framework: Statement on Climate Change Matters Regeneris Consulting, & Chris Morton Associates (2009): Wembley Hotels Study Roger Tym & Partners (2008): Update of Brent Retail Needs and Capacity Study Shared Intelligence (2009): Reaching Out: Final Evaluation Stiell, B. & Tang, N. (2006): Ethnic Minority Women and Access to the Labour Market Tank (2009): Interim Evaluation: West London Working Personal Advice and Outreach Project Transport for London (2005): Travel Report for London 2005 Transport for London (2010a): Travel in London: Report 2 URS Corporation Ltd (2009): London Borough of Brent Employment Land Study West London Alliance (2010a): Draft West London Economic Assessment West London Alliance (2010b): West London Interim Work and Skills Plan West London Partnership (2006): Response to the Mayor on the Draft Further Alterations to the London Plan West London Partnership (2007): West London Economic Development Strategy and Implementation Plan 2007 West London Partnership (2008): A Ten Point Plan for Transport in West London

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APPENDIX 2 HISTORY OF PLACE

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Brent: An original market place One of the starting points for recording and understanding the key factors and milestones that have shaped Brent’s development and performance over time is a ‘history-of-place’ narrative that describes Brent’s development up to the present day. While the Borough of Brent, named after the River Brent328 which flows into the Thames, was only created by the 1965 London local government reorganisation, many of its constituent areas have a long history of a distinct local identity and sense of place. Some populated areas can trace their origins back to early market places and hamlets first settled at least two millennia ago and probably back to pre–Celtic times.

Evidence of Roman occupation has been excavated in Kingsbury and Neasden which subsequently became the Anglo Saxon hamlets of ‘Cyngsbury’ and ‘Neosdune’ (the nose-shaped hill). Wembley can trace its origins to the clearance of the ‘Wembalea’ forest (AD 825). Willesden can trace its origin to a settlement beside the ‘Welles-dune spring’ (AD 939). After the Norman Conquest, the Cyngsbury royal hunting lodge became the site of the present 12th century St Andrews Church.

Other areas can trace their origins from the Norman period. The Domesday Book references ‘Harlesdene’ and ‘Kelebourne Priory’.

Urbanisation substantially intensified with the development of the railways in the early 19th century, and extensive house-building, with the area enjoying a variety of architectural styles and a growing mix of communities. Willesden Junction became an important maintenance centre on the LondonBirmingham line. Kilburn, which had for long been an important stopping place on the roadway out of London to the North, became a major urban market centre with the arrival of the North London Line in 1853. But much of the north of present day Brent was still essentially rural until the Metropolitan Line created, from the 1880s onwards to the 1930s, the ‘Metro-land’ suburbs of Kingsbury, Wembley, Preston and Kenton.

Communication improvements made areas of Brent much more accessible to other Londoners and so Brent became an important centre for leisure and entertainment. The origins of Brent’s role as a major tourism attraction can be traced back to the pilgrims who flocked to the 14th century shrine of Our Lady of Willesden and subsequently to the more secular attractions of the Welsh Harp Reservoir (excavated in the 1830 to supply the Grand Union Canal) and Wembley; and the site of the 1924 British Empire Exhibition which was held in the grounds of Wembley Park.

Figure 114: Brent, Willesden and Barnet (part) left to right: 1822, 1877, 1902

The Paddington arm of the Grand Union Canal was built through the area in 1801. It carried a range of goods including building materials, coal, and hay. For over a century it passed through what was essentially farmland. However, by the early twentieth century many companies had their own wharves on the canal, which were used for bringing in raw materials and distributing finished products. The canal trade remained significant until the 1960’s, after which it went into terminal decline.

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The construction of railways and sidings from the mid-nineteenth century began the area’s development as an industrial location. Early industries such as brickworks benefited from the proximity of the canal and railways that were later replaced by factories that could take advantage of large and relatively unconstrained sites. Road transport became more important in the twentieth century with the construction of key arterial and radial routes, particularly the Western Avenue and the North Circular. This facilitated further suburban development in the area. Roads and sewerage were improved.

In 1894 Park Royal still comprised principally farms and farmland. The River Brent was not yet culverted. Major railway sidings and workers’ cottages were developed at Old Oak to serve the Great Western Railway. Between 1901 and 1905, the Royal Agricultural Society held its annual show at a site between the canal and the railway line at East Twyford and since then, the name of Park Royal has been retained as the site grew as a location for industry and commerce. Like Park Royal, Wembley Park evolved out of previous use as a golf course and housing estate until the site was chosen for the 1924 to 25 British Empire Exhibition. As part of the exhibition, a new, allpurpose stadium was built on the site of Watkins’ tower (once intended to be a rival to the Eiffel Tower) in time to host the 1923 FA Cup Final. The 1924 Empire Exhibition layout introduced a strong formal character to the area. A broad avenue was established on a north-south axis from the new Wembley Park Railway Station to the Empire Stadium. This was later to become Olympic Way (formerly known to football fans as Wembley Way).

During the inter-war years manufacturing principally drove London’s economy. Places like Park Royal and Wembley continued to profit from the greater demand for industrial goods in the interwar periods and during the Second World War. With its proximity to the national railway network as well as the huge Greater London market, Park Royal became one of London’s premier industrial estates.

Between 1934 and 1935, the North Circular & Western Avenue were constructed along Twyford’s northern border. These enabled Park Royal to become the largest industrial zone in southern England before the Second World War, a centre for the growing electronics and aviation industries Brent being home to the research, development and manufacture of components for, arguably, the world’s first computer; and the development of the Trans-Atlantic telephone cables and first ‘Speaking Clock’ at GPO Research in Dollis Hill.

Up until the late 1990's, Brent was home to a number of firms' headquarters, particularly in Wembley and adjacent to the North Circular Road. Most of these firms have now left the borough and the buildings which they occupied have either been converted for other uses, provide office space for smaller or local businesses. For example, the Guinness Brewery, one of the UK’s largest factories constructed in the interwar period in Park Royal, closed in 2005. The opening of other attractions and shopping centres, such as Brent Cross in the 1970s, resulted in residents generally travelling out of the borough to shop. Brent’s major centres, notably Wembley, declined significantly during the 1970s and 80s, from their once eminent place within London’s market and town centre hierarchy. A combination of industrial re-structuring in the UK’s economy and new development elsewhere across North and West London meant that places like Brent began to suffer from the symptoms of post-industrial decline, a slowing economy and population decline; a loss of almost 30,000 residents between the 1971 and 1981 Census.

Back to the future Brent today is a place of contrasts. The borough is classed as an outer London authority, yet is characterised by a sharp divide between the relative affluence of the northern wards and high levels of social and economic deprivation in areas south of the North Circular Road. While the north of the borough is generally sub-urban in character with an older population, the south experiences many of the challenges faced by inner city communities. Within the West London sub-region Brent has the highest levels of diversity and multiple deprivation and is now one the most densely populated areas of London; an additional 15,000 residents moved into Brent between the 1991 and 2001 Census.

The Borough is famous for being the home of Wembley Stadium, which was rebuilt and then reopened in 2007. Consequently, Wembley now has its own 'brand' with the new stadium forming the centrepiece of a new Wembley; comprising major regeneration initiatives and ventures. Already known for its sporting and music venues, Wembley continues to develop further into a major regional, national and international tourist destination, with a range of major retail and leisure attractions whilst also delivering significant employment benefits for the local community. The borough’s population has grown for the better part of the last ten to twenty years, creating new emerging communities, as well as providing a home for significant numbers of transient people moving into and out of the borough.

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The changes in population have created a borough of rich diversity with over half of Brent’s residents being from black or minority ethnic communities. As well as the longer established Indian, Black Caribbean, Black African and Irish communities, there are emerging Eastern European, Somali, Turkish and Hispanic communities making Brent their home.

More than 130 languages are spoken in Brent. Data on languages spoken by school children in Brent shows that the main origin areas for the languages spoken are: India and South Asia – (19%), Near and Middle East (6%), East Africa (5%), and Eastern European (3%). Furthermore, there are over 150 places of worship spread across the borough representing a wide range of faiths. This growth and diversity is largely in the south of the borough and is predominantly young adults, often with pre-school or young children. This has resulted in a significant increase in the birth rate within the borough which has risen by almost 10% in the past three years. Brent has the second highest number of new National Insurance registrations in the country at 15,600 in 2007; and nearly one-inten (8%) of the population is classified as refugees or asylum seekers. Brent is now one of only two local authorities in the UK where the majority of people are from black and minority ethnic communities.

The cultural offer in Brent reflects these diverse backgrounds and the influences of local neighbourhoods in terms of shopping, food and restaurants and the general vibrancy of an area.

Brent has a number of important iconic cultural assets such as Wembley Stadium, Wembley Arena and the Tricycle Theatre, centres of faith such as the Shri Swaminarayan Mandir, London – popularly known as the ‘Neasden Temple’ Temple (the first and largest traditionally built Hindu stone Mandir in the Western hemisphere) in addition to a range of sports centres, parks and open spaces, and library-museum centres.

In 2009 Brent Museum was the first organisation to benefit from a nationwide scheme to bring national treasures to local audiences. The British Museum lent the iconic Gayer-Anderson Cat dating from 600BC for an exhibition called Divine Cat – Speaking to the gods in Ancient Egypt. The exhibition also included a display of Brent Museum’s own local collections, including Egyptian tomb goods, acquired by local businessman/philanthropist George Titus Barham in the early 20th century.

The culture of Brent’s communities is today expressed in the spaces which that community creates for itself. A wide variety of community and cultural facilities add value and support to community participation and development. In particular, the diversity of the borough’s population means that there is additional pressure for new places of worship to meet demand from different faiths. Brent residents demonstrate pride in their cultural diversity, showing support for local events such as the Respect Festival, the St Patrick’s Day Parade and the Diwali Festival where local culture and local talent in music and dance is showcased. Therefore, the borough is keen to protect these facilities to engender community cohesion and civic pride. From Wembley’s regeneration area, to the vibrant bustle of Ealing Road, through to the leafy streets of Queen’s Park, Brent’s built environment is as diverse as its communities. Brent is home to major town centres in Wembley and Kilburn, and a series of district centres, including: Harlesden, Willesden Green, Wembley Park, Preston Road, Neasden, Ealing Road and Kingsbury.

Wembley will continue to deliver the majority of the borough’s development and employment growth linked to investments in new retail and office development, and will become the primary location for new hotels enabling associated uses such as tourism and conferencing. It will also provide a range of community and cultural facilities designed specifically to attract all different communities into the area. There will be a new civic centre and a flagship library, for the first time providing a single public service facility under one roof.

While economic development and continued regeneration of the borough are critical to promoting the future prosperity of residents, local stakeholders recognise the need to retain and protect the quality of the local environment. Approximately a fifth of the land in Brent is open space, parks and water. Local parks have won national accolades, and three of Brent’s open spaces are designated as sites of metropolitan importance. Brent has more than 1,000 acres of public open space, including Fryent Country Park and the Welsh Harp reservoir, as well as formal Victorian parks such as Gladstone Park and Roundwood Park, plus the newly-built Northwick Park golf course. Open spaces and leisure facilities are much valued by local residents and are widely used for sporting, recreational and cultural activities. The quality of the local environment, and promoting sustainability are central to the borough’s vision for the future.

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Future prosperity Brent is an area of great opportunity and potential. Wembley is the focus for one of the largest regeneration projects in London. The public sector has played a crucial part. Over £80 million has been invested to upgrade and improve transport and infrastructure. With the public transport upgrades complete, Wembley now has the capacity to carry 50,000 passengers an hour to and from the area easily and safely. The opening of the new Stadium has already created several thousand new jobs, but more importantly has simulated a wider rejuvenation of the surrounding area.

Thousands of new affordable homes, leisure facilities, retail and office space will be provided through Quintain’s £3.5b redevelopment plan and the £50m redevelopment at Wembley Central Square. Major improvements have already been made to the transport links at Wembley Park.

The Council’s Core Strategy and Regeneration Strategy have identified other specific areas across the borough with the potential for new development for both housing and employment uses. These areas at Church End, Alperton, and Burnt Oak/Colindale are well placed to access Brent’s excellent transport links and will be supported by new infrastructure improvements and community facilities.

Local partners are assessing the potential for redevelopment of areas adjacent to the North Circular aiming to improve the quality of the environment, local housing and access to employment.

Wembley is planned to become a cultural focal point as the borough’s main area for tourism, being the location for large scale visitor attractions.

In the other growth areas, South Kilburn, Colindale/Burnt Oak, Church End and Alperton, mixed use development will be encouraged to deliver a strong sense of place which will be further enhanced by the provision of shops, services and local facilities. The range of local restaurants, cafes and bars across the borough will continue to be at the forefront of this cultural vibrancy, and London 2012 will provide an excellent opportunity for local people and new visitors to the Games to celebrate the rich variety of cultures enjoyed in Brent.

Brent will play a leading role during the Games with events being held in Wembley. However, the Olympic and Paralympic Games are not just about competitive sport being played in the borough.

They will also be an important opportunity for a celebration of Brent’s cultural heritage by ensuring Brent plays a role in the Cultural Olympiad promoting Brent as an exciting and dynamic borough.

London 2012 will provide a significant opportunity for services and providers in Brent to increase the take up of sports and arts activities by using the Games as a catalyst for residents to engage fully with the wider cultural offer. It is also a great opportunity to build a stronger local economy by looking at opportunities for local businesses and skills development and for developing the volunteering base within the borough. With facilities such as Wembley Stadium and Wembley Arena, the borough is able to attract major events with subsequent social and economic benefit. The 2011 UEFA Champions League Final and the 2015 Rugby World Cup tournament will both take place in Wembley. Brent will also look to build on other major events held in West London and London as a whole, such as the annual Notting Hill Carnival and the World Pride event in 2012, securing greater direct benefits for the local area.

Sources: Various, including reference (and thanks) to Willesden Local History Society publications, and Brent archives: http://www.willesden-local-history.co.uk/ http://brent.adlibsoft.com/

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APPENDIX 3 INDUSTRY SECTORS STANDARD CODE CLASSIFICATION

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The following section provides a list of the Standard Industrial Classification Codes used in the business analysis throughout the LEA. SIC2003 has been employed, as this definition allows comparison of business and employment statistics through time, to understand both current and historic performance

Business Services

70 71 72 73 74

: : : : :

Real estate activities Renting machinery/equipment, etc Computing and related activities Research and development Other business activities

Construction

41 : Construction of buildings 42 : Civil engineering 43 : Specialised construction activities

Creative / New Media Industries DCMS definition including:

Advertising; Architecture; Arts and Antiques Fashion Film and Video Leisure Software Music and Performance Publishing Radio and TV

Food and Drink

151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159

: : : : : : : : :

Production, processing and preserving of meat and meat products Processing and preserving of fish and fish products Processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables Manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats Manufacture of dairy products Manufacture of grain mill products, starches and starch products Manufacture of prepared animal feeds Manufacture of other food products Manufacture of beverages

Healthcare (including medicine)

85 : Health and social work

Hotels and Restaurants (Tourism)

55: Hotels and Restaurants

Transport and Communications

60 61 62 63 64

: : : : :

Land transport Water transport Air transport Supporting/auxiliary transport, etc Post and telecommunications

Wholesale and Retail

51 : Wholesale trade/commission trade, etc 52 : Retail trade, except of motor vehicles

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