2020 Boulder Economic Forecast Presentation from State Demographer Elizabeth Garner

Growing Forward

Population Trends in Colorado and Boulder County Elizabeth Garner Colorado State Demography Office January 2020

Transitions to Watch • Population growing at a slowing rate • Slowing Labor Force Growth

• Concentrated growth • Migration – attracting and retaining the best and brightest.

• Aging – impacts everything… including the economy.

• Increase racial and ethnic diversity.

• Slowing income growth • Prepared for changes to industries – resiliency

Big Picture – 2018-2019 Pop Change • US – 328.2 million, + 1.5 million or .5% •

Slowest annual growth rate since 1918

•

Slowest decade growth rate since data started being collected

• Colorado - - 5,758,736

• Ranked 8th fastest 1.2% - ID,NV,AZ,UT,TX,SC,WA • 7th in total growth 67,449 –TX,FL,AZ,NC,GA,WA • Growth of 725,000 since 2010

County Population Rankings, 2018 Population Growth (2010-2018)

Largest by Population

1 DENVER COUNTY

112,917

1

DENVER COUNTY

717,796

2 EL PASO COUNTY

87,166

2

EL PASO COUNTY

714,398

3 ARAPAHOE COUNTY

76,526

3

ARAPAHOE COUNTY

651,345

4 ADAMS COUNTY

67,758

4

JEFFERSON COUNTY

579,489

5 WELD COUNTY

60,020

5

ADAMS COUNTY

511,469

8 BOULDER COUNTY

29,867

6

LARIMER COUNTY

350,362

9 BROOMFIELD COUNTY

12,984

7

DOUGLAS COUNTY

342,847

8

BOULDER COUNTY

325,480

9

WELD COUNTY

314,250

Percent Growth (2010-2018) 1 BROOMFIELD COUNTY

23.79%

2 WELD COUNTY

23.61%

10 PUEBLO COUNTY

167,117

3 DOUGLAS COUNTY

19.41%

11 MESA COUNTY

153,629

4 DENVER COUNTY 5 LARIMER COUNTY

18.67% 16.58%

12 BROOMFIELD COUNTY 13 GARFIELD COUNTY

69,453 59,812

Largest Muni Population Declines Municipality

2018 Change

County

Boulder

-525

Boulder

Golden

-278

Jefferson

Lone Tree

-240

Douglas

City of Castle Pines

-140

Douglas

Gypsum

-89

Eagle

Northglenn

-85

Adams

Avon

-61

Eagle

Louisville Vail

-38 -31

Boulder Eagle

Colorado

Boulder County

Migration Statistics • In migration ave/yr 170,000-230,000 • Out migration ave/yr 150,000-190,000 Compared to CO average, In-migrants are: • Younger • Lower Income • Higher educational attainment

Outbound Migration Denver, CO -914 Broomfield, CO -800 Larimer, CO -369 Adams, CO -177 Goshen, WY -145 Weld,CO -116 Gallatin, MT -107 Gunnison, CO -92 Loga,, CO -82 Clear Creek, CO -71

Inbound Migaration Arapahoe , CO 825 El Paso , CO 460 Orange , CA 335 Wake , NC 301 Los Angeles , CA 229 Carver , MN 219 Honolulu , HI 218 San Mateo , CA 216 Palm Beach , FL 207 Douglas , CO 206

Jobs Are People

Colorado Employment Change from 2008 to 2018 Health Services Professional and Tech. services Accommodation and food Transportation and warehousing State Government Local Government Other services Retail Trade Private Education Arts, Entertainment & Rec Admin and waste Real estate Construction Management of companies Agriculture Wholesale trade Finance activities Manufacturing Information Mining Federal Government Utilities -10,000

Total Change = 462,000

0

Low Wage ($23,400-$44,000)

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Mid Wage ($48,500 - $70,700)

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

High Wage ($84,000 - $136,100)

90,000

Balancing • Jobs • Commuting • Population • Labor force participation by age • Housing and other community features

Commuting to & from Boulder

Commuting to Jobs in Boulder

Age Matters • Preferences – where people shop and what they buy.

• Housing – type, size, mobility • Labor Force – in or out and retiring • Income • Service Demands

Age Distribution by Generation Median Age = 37.2 Median 37.4

Median Age = 38.0

https://demography.dola.colorado.gov/Age-AnimationBars/?county=013&year=2019

0 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 Pct Ch 2% 13% 19% 5% Total Ch 23,768 72,072 295,739 64,620

65+ 48% 341,924

2015 2025 Total Ch Pct Ch.

0 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 100 64,110 44,923 82,955 86,885 40,135 58,333 48,689 88,799 85,761 64,094 -5,777 3,766 5,844 -1,124 23,959 -9.0% 8.4% 7.0% -1.3% 59.7% https://gis.dola.colorado.gov/apps/demographic_dashboard/

Aging Implications • Preferences – where people shop and what they buy.

•

More service expenditures, less goods expenditures.

• Housing – type, size, mobility •

Age in place, need for universal design.

• Labor Force – growth in 65+ 3X the working age population.

• Income – downward pressure • Service Demands - increase

Ethnicity and Race

DIVERSITY BY AGE Hispanic, Black, Asian, and other minority share 2015

2050

60% 58%

57% 52%

50% 40%

58% 43%

43% 38%

57% 33%

30%

32% 23%

20%

16% 10% 0%

<18

18-24

25-44

45-64

65+

Share of Net Increase in Working Age Population, 2015-2020

American Indian, NH

Black, NH

White, NH

Asian, NH

Hispanic

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

35

Source: ACS 1-year PUMS

Hispanic Workers in Boulder as a % of total industry employment in 2018 Agriculture Admin & Support Construction Accommodation & Food Transportation & Warehousing Retail Trade Manufacturing Health Care & Social Asst All Industries

13.2%

Other Services Real Estate Public Administration Finance & Insurance Mining Education Utilities Mgmt. of Companies Wholesale Trade Arts, Entertainment & Rec Information PST 0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Source: ACS 1-year PUMS

35.0%

Population Forecast

State – 2.4 million Front Range – 2M Denver Metro – 1M North FR– 600K South FR – 400K Rest of State – 400K

Population growth is slowing Over last 30 years: • US – 327 million in 2018, + 2.8 million/year or 1% • Colorado – 5.7 million in 2018, +84K/year or 2% Expectation for the next 30 years: • US – 389 million in 2050, +1.9 million/year or .5% • Colorado – 8 million in 2050, +73K/year or 1.1% • Boulder County – 420,100 in 2050 (+90K), + 3K / year or 0.8%

U.S. population projection from U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2017.

Risks (plus or minus) • Housing – supply, price 5th highest, 2nd worst change in affordability • National Growth – National Immigration Policy • Water - climate • Labor force – aging, prepared, race/ethnicity, participation rates, automation • Infrastructure/Transportation • State budget/policy • Education – affordable, range of options, race/ethnicity • Aging – will we retain them, labor force, services, cost • Industry changes – booms, downturn, automation • Natural disasters – climate, nationally

Summary• Everything is connected – population, jobs, age, migration, labor • Due to tight labor force we need to look at: •

Migration – how do we attract and retain. (housing, university, community, name recognition)

•

Increase labor force participation – young, older, family friendly

•

Education – youth, race/ethnicity, retrain.

•

Commuting - more

• Aging Impact - opportunities and changes to the labor force, income, industrial mix, housing, service demand, public finance, building age diversity.

• Growth but slowing – how do we balance?

• Are we prepared for the risks - recession, Federal Budget, China, water, industry transition, infrastructure needs – facing Boulder and Colorado?

Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner Elizabeth.garner@state.co.us 303-864-7750 Demography.dola.colorado.gov