Growing Forward
Population Trends in Colorado and Boulder County Elizabeth Garner Colorado State Demography Office January 2020
Transitions to Watch • Population growing at a slowing rate • Slowing Labor Force Growth
• Concentrated growth • Migration – attracting and retaining the best and brightest. • Aging – impacts everything… including the economy. • Increase racial and ethnic diversity. • Slowing income growth • Prepared for changes to industries – resiliency
Big Picture – 2018-2019 Pop Change • US – 328.2 million, + 1.5 million or .5% •
Slowest annual growth rate since 1918
•
Slowest decade growth rate since data started being collected
• Colorado - - 5,758,736
• Ranked 8th fastest 1.2% - ID,NV,AZ,UT,TX,SC,WA • 7th in total growth 67,449 –TX,FL,AZ,NC,GA,WA • Growth of 725,000 since 2010
County Population Rankings, 2018 Population Growth (2010-2018)
Largest by Population
1 DENVER COUNTY
112,917
1
DENVER COUNTY
717,796
2 EL PASO COUNTY
87,166
2
EL PASO COUNTY
714,398
3 ARAPAHOE COUNTY
76,526
3
ARAPAHOE COUNTY
651,345
4 ADAMS COUNTY
67,758
4
JEFFERSON COUNTY
579,489
5 WELD COUNTY
60,020
5
ADAMS COUNTY
511,469
8 BOULDER COUNTY
29,867
6
LARIMER COUNTY
350,362
9 BROOMFIELD COUNTY
12,984
7
DOUGLAS COUNTY
342,847
8
BOULDER COUNTY
325,480
9
WELD COUNTY
314,250
Percent Growth (2010-2018) 1 BROOMFIELD COUNTY
23.79%
2 WELD COUNTY
23.61%
10 PUEBLO COUNTY
167,117
3 DOUGLAS COUNTY
19.41%
11 MESA COUNTY
153,629
4 DENVER COUNTY 5 LARIMER COUNTY
18.67% 16.58%
12 BROOMFIELD COUNTY 13 GARFIELD COUNTY
69,453 59,812
Largest Muni Population Declines Municipality
2018 Change
County
Boulder
-525
Boulder
Golden
-278
Jefferson
Lone Tree
-240
Douglas
City of Castle Pines
-140
Douglas
Gypsum
-89
Eagle
Northglenn
-85
Adams
Avon
-61
Eagle
Louisville Vail
-38 -31
Boulder Eagle
Colorado
Boulder County
Migration Statistics • In migration ave/yr 170,000-230,000 • Out migration ave/yr 150,000-190,000 Compared to CO average, In-migrants are: • Younger • Lower Income • Higher educational attainment
Outbound Migration Denver, CO -914 Broomfield, CO -800 Larimer, CO -369 Adams, CO -177 Goshen, WY -145 Weld,CO -116 Gallatin, MT -107 Gunnison, CO -92 Loga,, CO -82 Clear Creek, CO -71
Inbound Migaration Arapahoe , CO 825 El Paso , CO 460 Orange , CA 335 Wake , NC 301 Los Angeles , CA 229 Carver , MN 219 Honolulu , HI 218 San Mateo , CA 216 Palm Beach , FL 207 Douglas , CO 206
Jobs Are People
Colorado Employment Change from 2008 to 2018 Health Services Professional and Tech. services Accommodation and food Transportation and warehousing State Government Local Government Other services Retail Trade Private Education Arts, Entertainment & Rec Admin and waste Real estate Construction Management of companies Agriculture Wholesale trade Finance activities Manufacturing Information Mining Federal Government Utilities -10,000
Total Change = 462,000
0
Low Wage ($23,400-$44,000)
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Mid Wage ($48,500 - $70,700)
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
High Wage ($84,000 - $136,100)
90,000
Balancing • Jobs • Commuting • Population • Labor force participation by age • Housing and other community features
Commuting to & from Boulder
Commuting to Jobs in Boulder
Age Matters • Preferences – where people shop and what they buy. • Housing – type, size, mobility • Labor Force – in or out and retiring • Income • Service Demands
Age Distribution by Generation Median Age = 37.2 Median 37.4
Median Age = 38.0
https://demography.dola.colorado.gov/Age-AnimationBars/?county=013&year=2019
0 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 Pct Ch 2% 13% 19% 5% Total Ch 23,768 72,072 295,739 64,620
65+ 48% 341,924
2015 2025 Total Ch Pct Ch.
0 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 100 64,110 44,923 82,955 86,885 40,135 58,333 48,689 88,799 85,761 64,094 -5,777 3,766 5,844 -1,124 23,959 -9.0% 8.4% 7.0% -1.3% 59.7% https://gis.dola.colorado.gov/apps/demographic_dashboard/
Aging Implications • Preferences – where people shop and what they buy. •
More service expenditures, less goods expenditures.
• Housing – type, size, mobility •
Age in place, need for universal design.
• Labor Force – growth in 65+ 3X the working age population. • Income – downward pressure • Service Demands - increase
Ethnicity and Race
DIVERSITY BY AGE Hispanic, Black, Asian, and other minority share 2015
2050
60% 58%
57% 52%
50% 40%
58% 43%
43% 38%
57% 33%
30%
32% 23%
20%
16% 10% 0%
<18
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
Share of Net Increase in Working Age Population, 2015-2020
American Indian, NH
Black, NH
White, NH
Asian, NH
Hispanic
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
35
Source: ACS 1-year PUMS
Hispanic Workers in Boulder as a % of total industry employment in 2018 Agriculture Admin & Support Construction Accommodation & Food Transportation & Warehousing Retail Trade Manufacturing Health Care & Social Asst All Industries
13.2%
Other Services Real Estate Public Administration Finance & Insurance Mining Education Utilities Mgmt. of Companies Wholesale Trade Arts, Entertainment & Rec Information PST 0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Source: ACS 1-year PUMS
35.0%
Population Forecast
State – 2.4 million Front Range – 2M Denver Metro – 1M North FR– 600K South FR – 400K Rest of State – 400K
Population growth is slowing Over last 30 years: • US – 327 million in 2018, + 2.8 million/year or 1% • Colorado – 5.7 million in 2018, +84K/year or 2% Expectation for the next 30 years: • US – 389 million in 2050, +1.9 million/year or .5% • Colorado – 8 million in 2050, +73K/year or 1.1% • Boulder County – 420,100 in 2050 (+90K), + 3K / year or 0.8%
U.S. population projection from U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2017.
Risks (plus or minus) • Housing – supply, price 5th highest, 2nd worst change in affordability • National Growth – National Immigration Policy • Water - climate • Labor force – aging, prepared, race/ethnicity, participation rates, automation • Infrastructure/Transportation • State budget/policy • Education – affordable, range of options, race/ethnicity • Aging – will we retain them, labor force, services, cost • Industry changes – booms, downturn, automation • Natural disasters – climate, nationally
Summary• Everything is connected – population, jobs, age, migration, labor • Due to tight labor force we need to look at: •
Migration – how do we attract and retain. (housing, university, community, name recognition)
•
Increase labor force participation – young, older, family friendly
•
Education – youth, race/ethnicity, retrain.
•
Commuting - more
• Aging Impact - opportunities and changes to the labor force, income, industrial mix, housing, service demand, public finance, building age diversity. • Growth but slowing – how do we balance? • Are we prepared for the risks - recession, Federal Budget, China, water, industry transition, infrastructure needs – facing Boulder and Colorado?
Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner Elizabeth.garner@state.co.us 303-864-7750 Demography.dola.colorado.gov