September 2022 Building Buzz

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BISMARCK-MANDAN HOME BUILDERS ASSOCIATION SEPTEMBER 2022 || WWW.BMHBA.COM

BUILDING Building Buzz is a publication of the Bismarck Mandan Home Builders Association. Bismarck Mandan Home Builders Association 2600 Gateway Ave, Ste 1 Bismarck, ND 58503 Phone: 701.222.2400 www.instagram.com/bismanbuilderswww.facebook.com/bmhbawww.twitter.com/bmhbawww.bmhba.com PAGE 3 PAGE 5 PAGE 7 8 PAGE 10 PAGE 14 PROFESSIONALS BUILDING OUR COMMUNITY THROUGH PROMOTION OF SINCE 1958. CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER Dawn Watson Office:dawn@bmhba.com7012222400Cell:7013905049 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTOR Brittney Roehrich brittney@bmhba.comOffice:7012222400Cell:7012403540 LAYOUT DESIGNER Elysha Head JAMIE SCHMIDT, PRESIDENT Investcore, Inc. 1601 N 12th St. Suite 605 Bismarck, ND 58501 (701) 223 jamie.schmidt@investcore.com3030 JOE HILLERSON, VICE PRESIDENT Boulder Homes PO Box 1421 Bismarck, ND 58502 (701) 400 boulderhomesnd@gmail.com5554 AMY LARSEN, 2ND VICE PRESIDENT Apex Builders PO Box 652 Mandan, ND 58554 (701) 527 7899 amy@apexbuildersnd.com LORI WILLSON, TREASURER Northern Plains Plumbing, Heating & Air 2510 Vermont Ave Bismarck, ND 58504 (701) 226 lori@northernplains.net8810 GREG MEIDINGER, PAST PRESIDENT Aspire Homes 3313 Bayshore Bend SE Mandan, ND 58554 (701) 426 greg@daretoaspirend.com8583 BILL SCHMID Townsquare Media 1830 N 11th St Bismarck, ND 58501 (701) 250 bill.schmid@townsquaremedia.com6602 JOE VETTER Joe Vetter Construction 2523 Powder Ridge Circle Bismarck, ND 58503 (701) 258 joevetterjvc@gmail.com9394 VICKI MORAN Hallmark Homes 3200 Rock Island Place, Suite 4 Bismarck, ND 58504 7717 (701) 471 hallmarkhomes@outlook.com7634 MCKENZIE LAWLER Dakota OutdoorScapes 8351 Hwy 1804 N Bismarck, ND 58503 (701) 595 0890 mckenzie@ndscapes.com RON STOTZ CAVES 1365 Tacoma Ave, Suite 1 Bismarck, ND 58504 (701) 751 rons@cavesnd.com1162 ANDREW MELDAHL Pinnacle Homes and Design 214 Riverwood Ave Mandan, ND 58554 (701) 426 andrew@pinnaclehomesnd.com0237 JOSHUA JACOBCHICK JSJ jsjconst@hotmail.comManda,714ConstructionCusterDr.ND58554(701)2260526

Judy LindseyMaslowskiMatterJonRick Aaron Frohlich AlexisSamLarsonFoss Christine Rivinius Brad AngelaAaronMillerLundeJesseKlaudtLeeMitzelWolsey Ryan Hiatt Mike Drentlaw Jamie FrankieSueMitchDrewMikeSorensonWoodFlurerKaelbererPiersonHunterMorris The BMHBA consists of building specialists from every section of the construction field and associated industries. Your membership strengthens our voice in Bismarck Mandan construction sector as well as at a state and national level. If you haven’t already submitted payment, please renew your membership by September 30, 2022. Thank you to our members who have helped grow our BMHBA membership over the years by recruiting new companies to join our association. If you know of a company that is interested in joining, contact Brittney Roehrich at brittney@bmhba.com or 701 222 2400. Your recruitments can now be seen on NAHB.org. Click “My Profile” then “My Spike Referrals.” TopRecruitersasof 08/17/2022. Please welcome our new members from August to the association! Join the BMHBA in congratulating these longstanding members. Their dedication to the Bismarck Mandan Home Builders Association is appreciated and truly valued. Associate Membership (701) 202 www.bismanwindowtinting.comNodaktint@gmail.com3359 Palomino Construction Statesman Spike 500 999 Credits Kelly Moldenhauer (741.00) Super Spikes 250 499 Credits Todd Brady (381.50) Robb Sattler (295.00) Mike Todd (288.00) Lee Mitzel (269.00) Pat Marback (257.50) Royal Spikes 150 249 Credits Lori Willson (215.50) Mike Hopfauf (195.50) Berna Vetter (190.00) Colby Well (165.00) Jack Knutson (160.00) Red Spikes 100 149 Credits Blair Ihmels (146.50) Steve Redding (125.00) Dan Sparling (120.50) Chad Moldenhauer (109.00) Jerry Splonskowski (106.50) Green Spikes 50 99 Credits Vance Vetter (98.50) Paula Haider (95.50) David Patience (94.50) Mark Larson (92.00) Eric Brenden (88.50) Darren Buffington (83.50) Kenneth Knodel (67.50) Art Goldammer (64.50) Scott Moran (57.50) Nadine Schaff (56.00) Scott Duchscherer (54.50) Life Spikes 25-49 Credits Gerry Rudnick (49.50) Gerald Hopfauf (45.50) Matt Shauer (42.50) Drew Knutson (42.00) Jeff Sattler (39.50) Greg Meidinger (39.00) Greg Zenker (37.00) Blue Spikes 6 24 Credits Jason Frank (22.00) Jamie Schmidt (20.00) Shane Gaffaney (19.00) Earl Torgerson (16.50) Melinda Llyod (15.00) Bob Kupper (12.00) Kelli Thompson (10.00) Pete Brendel (8.50) Bill Schmid (8.00) Darryl Hatzenbuhler (7.00) Mike Wolf (7.00) Joe Hillerson (6.50) Rory Anderson (6.00) Shannon Reichenberg (6.00) Spike Candidates .50 5.50 Credits Kurt Steiner (4.50) Parker Pladson (4.00) Jarred Roloff (3.50) Vicki Moran (3.00) Brian Eiseman (2.50) Sam Gietzen (2.50) Mark Abramson (2.00) Natalie Eckes (2.00) Melanie Staiger (2.00) Wade Vogel (2.00) Jackie Andahl (1.00) Lynn Klein (1.00) Alissa Kleinsasser (1.00) Reid Kubesh (1.00) Terry Leabo (1.00) Tom Reinke (1.00) Jeran Thomson (1.00) Travis Welle (1.00) Lindsey Ashley (0.50) Brad Balerud (0.50) Bryan Brendel (0.50) Hannah Haynes (0.50) Kassy Landis (0.50) Builder Membership (701) 220 2740 mjgoldade@bis.midco.net http://copperleafhomesnd.com

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Thank you to everyone for your continued support as a member and have a great rest of the summer! sign these upcoming 29 2 together we are alone” Walter Payton

The BMHBA held its 15th Annual Clay Shoot on August 4 at Capital City Sporting Clays. The weather was very HOT, but everyone still had a great time! Thank you to our sponsors, committee and members that participated and helped us put on a successful event! Fall Mixer will also be our board elections. I would like to encourage everybody to either consider a seat on the BMHBA board or think of somebody to nominate for a board position. If you have any questions on running for a board position, don’t hesitate to contact the office.

up for

through October

Our

• Fall Mixer and Board Elections: October 20 “We are stronger

then

events: • Fall Parade of Homes: September

The BMHBA partnered with Lowe’s for a Summer Skills & Construction Camp for elementary and middle school kids in Bismarck. BMHBA Director and Landscape Designer McKenzie Lawler from Dakota OutdoorScapes visited with the kids about a career in Landscaping. Executive Officer, Dawn Watson, led a fun interactive landscaping project with the kids. We will incorporate different themes each summer with this camp and introduce kids to all areas of our building industry.

JAMIE SCHMIDT 2022 BMHBA PRESIDENT

Make sure to

I can't believe I'm saying it, but kids are back to school and kid activities are in full swing which only can mean that the parade of homes is fast approaching. It is one of our most popular events and one I feel our community loves attending to see all the homes that are being built by our talented members. The parade will start September 29 and run through October 2; we hope to see everyone there.

MONTH YEAR ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 JANUARY 1 0 10 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 0 FEBRUARY 5 2 0 10 17 4 0 0 0 1 2 0 6 5 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 MARCH 14 2 9 32 28 31 2 2 1 4 9 2 4 8 2 8 9 11 0 0 0 1 4 0 4 2 4 12 12 9 APRIL 40 27 26 23 43 22 4 3 6 8 6 4 8 16 11 5 7 3 4 0 6 3 0 3 11 11 14 4 11 11 MAY 29 16 28 23 12 35 5 6 4 9 9 4 11 15 11 4 6 5 5 5 0 2 2 0 7 20 10 5 13 7 JUNE 48 24 18 40 53 27 10 2 2 3 8 4 13 13 4 6 3 12 3 1 1 1 3 4 4 4 6 8 8 9 JULY 60 22 17 34 41 19 3 3 2 7 5 5 6 11 12 14 9 1 1 5 1 6 1 14 4 3 11 1 7 1 AUGUST 16 27 19 29 39 6 1 7 2 3 13 20 10 16 13 9 4 5 3 0 6 8 5 5 6 SEPTEMBER 26 22 23 43 57 8 3 10 9 4 26 11 10 22 12 4 5 2 4 2 9 6 5 10 14 OCTOBER 22 15 36 43 38 4 7 3 10 2 20 9 9 7 10 7 5 3 8 10 3 7 1 5 7 NOVEMBER 9 11 14 12 25 3 0 1 0 5 7 6 2 6 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 1 7 DECEMBER 0 1 1 21 15 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 YTD TOTAL 270 169 201 312 373 138 45 27 36 54 53 19 114 116 71 90 74 32 37 28 20 32 22 21 51 61 60 57 89 37 BISMARCK SINGLE FAMILY DWELLING Copper Leaf Homes 5412 Titanium Dr EMH 508 Shale Dr J.E. Homes 2008 Frisco Way K & L Homes 6201 15th St NW 234 K & L Homes 6201 15th St NW 236 K & L Homes 6201 15th St NW 238 K & L Homes 6201 15th St NW 240 K & L Homes 6201 15th St NW 242 K & L Homes 6201 15th St NW 244 K & L Homes 6201 15th St NW 246 K & L Homes 6201 15th St NW 248 Pinnacle Homes 2017 Tule Ln Quality Plumbing & Htg 1909 Monarch Ave Sattler Homes 3330 Tyndale Dr Sattler Homes 3407 Tyndale Dr Stoneshire Builders 2901 Shoreline Cir Verity Homes 5603 Holmes Dr Verity Homes 5604 Holmes Dr Verity Homes 5607 Holmes Dr BISMARCK ETA SINGLE FAMILY DWELLING EHomes 6927 Horseshoe Bnd Mark Fleck Const. 6511 Leisure Ln Paramount Builders 8312 Norman Pl Pearson Home Builders 6260 80th St NE Performance Builders 4117 Sandy River Pl MANDAN SINGLE FAMILY DWELLING Leingang Const. 4604 Nova Ave NW LINCOLN SINGLE FAMILY DWELLING Verity Homes 102 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 104 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 106 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 108 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 110 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 112 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 117 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 119 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 123 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 129 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 131 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 133 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 135 Marshall Loop Verity Homes 137 Marshall Loop MORTON COUNTY SINGLE FAMILY DWELLING Kroh Construction 4615 38th St

FEMA will notify communities approximately two weeks prior to the start of the 90 day appeal period with a letter that indicates the start and end date of the 90 day appeal period. The 90 day appeal period will be announced by two publications in our local newspaper and will start on the second publication date.An appeal must be accompanied by data and documentation indicating the proposed flood hazard information shown on the preliminary products is scientifically or technically incorrect. Appeals should be submitted to FEMA through your local community official.

BUILDING MATERIALS Builders FirstSource is your first source for great customer service and high quality building materials.

For more information on the preliminary products and the appeal process, please contact the Floodplain Administrator in your jurisdiction. If your property is in the City of Bismarck jurisdiction; including the City of Bismarck Extra Territorial Area (ETA), please contact the City of Bismarck Building Official and Bismarck Floodplain Administrator; Brady Blaskowski, at 701 355 1467 or bblaskowski@bismarcknd.govIfyourpropertyisinBurleigh County jurisdiction; please contact the Director Burleigh County Building/ Planning/Zoning Department and Burleigh County Floodplain Administrator; Mitch Flanagan, at 701 221 3727 or mflanagan@nd.gov 39TH AVE SE, MANDAN | 701 663 9861 | WWW.BLDR.COM

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a 90 day appeal period. The appeal period allows the public to review the preliminary maps provided and submit written appeals to FEMA for consideration.

Representatives from FEMA, the North Dakota Department of Water Resources and their contracting team, City of Bismarck, and Burleigh County, jointly hosted a public open house at the Bismarck Event Center on August 16th, 2022. This open house provided community officials and members of the public with an opportunity to view the preliminary maps, offer comments, and ask questions regarding the preliminary maps, community floodplain management, and the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). If you were unable to attend the open house and you would like to view the preliminary products, please visit the FEMA Map Service Center website at: prelimdownload/searchLoad.actionhttps://hazards.fema.gov/femaportal/ThenextstepintheRiskMapUpdateprocessis

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), in partnership with the North Dakota State Department of Water Resources is in the process of developing an updated flood risk map for Burleigh County. Preliminary copies of a Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) and Flood Insurance Study (FIS) report for Burleigh County, including the City of Bismarck have been provided to our community for review and comment.Thistype of mapping effort is done to help provide states and communities with more accurate and reliable information so they can manage flood risk. When these maps are adopted by the City of Bismarck and Burleigh County they will serve as the effective flood hazard maps and the basis for floodplain management in our community.

Kayla Pulvermacher, NDAB CEO Mike Jangula, 2022 NDAB President

KAYLANDABPULVERMACHERCEO September 7 Annual Golf Scramble Dickinson Area Builders Association September 8 Annual Golf Outing Forx Builders Association September 8 Homes and Hops Minot Association of Builders September 17 18 & 24 25 Fall Parade of Homes Home Builders Association of Fargo Moorhead

Continuing education can be a struggle, but not when you’re a member. Through a partnership between Home Builders Association of Fargo Moorhead and NDAB, we offer a variety of webinars and in person classes to make the most of your time and membership dollar. NAHB expands the opportunity, providing classes online, at IBS, and through their large online store of publications, subscriptions, and digital media.

While there are a lot of reasons to become a member of your local, NDAB and NAHB, one of the reasons we don’t talk about enough are the endless member benefits that come with membership. This month, we’re going to walk through some of those advantages you have as member.Asamember of your local and state home builders’ association, you can take advantage of NAHB’s Member Savings Programs. NAHB negotiates on your behalf to offer the best pricing available with national companies.So,forinstance, whether you’re looking for a new fleet or personal vehicle, there are discounts available through Nissan and GM. Need new computers for your business? Dell Computers offers up to 40% off computers, servers, electronics & accessories. These, and other offerings, can be found at www.nahb.org/savings.

Finally, I cannot stress enough how important it is to network with your peers. While gaining ideas from each other is priceless, “doing business with a member” can save your countless dollars. The local association’s Builder After Hours, meet ups, and other events are a great way to get to know leaders in your industry. There’s no real way to put a dollar amount to what your membership in this organization is really worth but taking advantage of it is a no brainer.

Gun Winner Mitch Kaelberer with TransTrash (also pictured BMHBA CEO Dawn Watson) Cone Contest Winner Darren Messmer {right) Heartland Pella (Sponsored by Blair Ihmels {left} at Acme Tools) Beer Sponsor Mitch Kaelberer (TransTrash) Grill Masters Paula & Tom Haider (Haider Glass Specialties)

3 for 5 Contest Winner Derek Binstock (right) Bravera Bank (Sponsored by Delton Stein {left} at C.S.

Gun Winner Mark Roningen {right} with Knife River (also pictured Mike Thomas Kramer Agency {left}) 3 for 5 Contest Winner Tim Zander (left) Montana Dakota Utilities Co. (Sponsored by Mark Roninge {right} at Knife River)

The BMHBA would like to extend our gratitude to our generous sponsors, volunteers, and clay shooters. We couldn’t host these events without you. If you did not participate in this year’s event, we hope to see you at next year’s sporting clay shoot!

1st Place Team Knife River (Sponsored by Menards) 2nd Place Team Paramount Builders, Inc. (Sponsored by Sam's Club) 3rd Place Team Bravera Bank (Sponsored by Lowe’s)

On Thursday, August 4 the BMHBA hosted the 15th Annual Sporting Clay Shoot at Capital City Sporting Clays in Bismarck. Contests were held and multiple prizes were given away!

www.joevetterconst.comwww.facebook.com/joevetterconstructionwww.instagram.com/joevetterconstruction

Joe Vetter Construction truly is a family operated business. My mom Berna who had owned the company for over 34 years still works for me in the office and to have that amount of experience in the office to lean back on if needed is truly incredible. My favorite part of the job is making people’s thoughts and wishes come true. It is such an honor to be able to build someone their dream home. In my spare time I love to spend it with my family. I also like to travel, spend time at the lake in the summers, and go fishing with my brother and dad.

both with clients and subcontractors is a huge part in making a business run smoothly. A typical day consists of checking on my ongoing projects. Getting in touch with subcontractors that are needed for particular jobs, and meeting with both clients and vendors to make sure both quality control and timelines are met. It’s tough to imagine myself doing anything else right now, but if I wasn't building, I would probably be working in the healthcare industry. I grew up around it. With my parents owning the business through my entire childhood and having the opportunity to come back to Bismarck to work alongside them was really a special opportunity I could not pass up.

SpotlightMemberBuilder

Fall is my favorite season. It is a busy work period, but it is also a great time to go fishing and hunting and get away from the everyday stressors.

Joe Vetter Construction is a second generation builder. Joe Vetter Construction has been locally owned and operated for over 36 years right here in Bismarck/Mandan.Communication

Knife River is a full service aggregate based construction company, providing ready mix concrete aggregate sales and delivery and concrete construction services. We provide services throughout North Dakota for public, private and commercial construction projects. 701 580 4527 Bismarck Mandan | Washburn | Beulah Mark Roningen Business Development

The Bismarck Mandan Professional Women in Building Council (BMPWB) represents women who are actively involved in all aspects of the building industry as builders, developers, remodelers, suppliers, architects, marketing experts, interior designers, relators, mortgage lenders and trade contractors. The Council is an affiliate of the National Association of Home Builders. Our mission is to promote, enhance and support women within the construction industry as well as the next generation of industry professionals. We have partnered with local builders, sub contractors, and other local businesses to make some deserving community member master bedroom dreams come true. This may include, but not limited to, new flooring, paint, light fixtures, furniture, bedding, mattress, and decor. The winner has been chosen: Kristin Krumweide! We will reveal the Master Bedroom Makeover during PWB Week September 12 16. So stay tuned!

3320 E Century Ave, Bismarck, ND Hours:www.frontstreetmillwork.com701-255-1636Monday-Friday8amto5pm Front Street Millwork & Lumber The Fall BMHBA Parade of Homes is September 29 - October 2, 2022 Thank you builders, for choosing us for your Parade Home building materials!

Sterling Terra Rosa CreekPlum SandMission Point Front Street Millwork & Lumber Find Versetta Stone @

SEE YOUR AD HERE Call the BMHBA office for more info 701 222 2400. JANUARY 18 FEBRUARY 5-10 MARCH 18-19 APRIL 28 MAY 1 JULY 12 AUGUST 4 SEPT. 29 OCT. 2 OCTOBER 20MAY 10

2022FallMixer&BoardElections October 20 || 5:00 8:00pm || Lady J’s Club & Catering The mixer is FREE to all members, spouses, and prospective members! Registernow! https://business.bmhba.com/events

Roughly one in five (19%) home builders in the HMI survey reported reducing prices in the past month to increase sales or limit cancellations. The median price reduction was 5% for those reporting using such incentives. Meanwhile, 69% of builders reported higher interest rates as the reason behind falling housing demand, the top impact cited in the survey.

“Ongoing growth in construction costs and high mortgage rates continue to weaken market sentiment for single family home builders,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “And in a troubling sign that consumers are now sitting on the sidelines due to higher housing costs, the August buyer traffic number in our builder survey was 32, the lowest level since April 2014 with the exception of the spring of 2020 when the pandemic first hit.”

Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The total volume of single family starts will post a decline in 2022, the first such decrease since 2011. However, as signs grow that the rate of inflation is near peaking, long term interest rates have stabilized, which will provide some stability for the demand side of the market in the coming months.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components posted declines in August and each fell to their lowest level since May 2020. Current sales conditions dropped seven points to 57, sales expectations in the next six months declined two points to 47 and traffic of prospective buyers fell five points to 32.

Builder confidence fell for the eighth straight month in August as elevated interest rates, ongoing supply chain problems and high home prices continue to exacerbate housing affordability challenges. In another sign that a declining housing market has failed to bottom out, builder confidence in the market for newly built single family homes fell six points in August to 49, marking the first time since May 2020 that the index fell below the key break even measure of 50, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

Looking at the three month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell nine points to 56, the Midwest dropped three points to 49, the South fell seven points to 63 and the West posted an 11 point decline to 51. HMI tables can be found at www.nahb.org/hmi

Multifamily permits posted increases in all four regions.

Permits were 32.3% higher in the Midwest, 22.9% higher in the South, 17.3% higher in the West, and 6.6% higher in the Northeast.Between

single family permits during this time with the District of Columbia posting the steepest decline of 22.7% going from 216 permits to 167. The ten states issuing the highest number of single family permits combined accounted for 64.2% of the total single family permits issued.Year to date, ending in June 2022, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 331,934. This is 20.1% ahead over the June 2021 level of 276,433. Between June 2021 YTD and June 2022 YTD, 36 states and the District of Columbia recorded growth while 14 states recorded a decline in multifamily permits. Georgia led the way with a sharp rise (158.1%) in multifamily permits from 4,296 to 11,088 while Delaware had the largest decline of 74.5% from 667 to 170. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 63.4% of the multifamily permits issued.

Over the first six months of 2022, the total number of single family permits issued year to date (YTD) nationwide reached 567,798. On a year over year (YoY) basis, this is a 3.6% decline over the June 2021 level of 589,146.

Year to date ending in June, single family permits declined in all four regions. The South posted a small decline 0.8% while the Northeast region reported the steepest decline of 11.5%. The Midwest declined bythisduringpermitsfamilyindeclineareportedregionWesternand11.2%the4.6%singletime.

June 2021 YTD and June 2022 YTD, 11 states saw growth in single family permits issued. New Mexico recorded the highest growth rate during this time at 38.9% going from areportedColumbiaDistrictandstatesnineThirtytopermits3,0614,252.theofdeclinein

The index for shelter, which makes up more than 40% of the “core” Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 0.5% in July, following an increase of 0.6% in June and May. Nonetheless, it is likely that the core CPI measure of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has now peaked as tighter monetary policy from the Fed slows the housing market and overall economy.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today that consumer prices eased slightly to an annual rate of 8.5% in July from a 40 year high of 9.1% in June, as declines in energy prices offset increases in food and shelter indexes. Despite this improvement, inflation remained above an 8% rate for a fifth straight month and rent increases continue to stay stubbornly high.

Meanwhile, the indexes for owners’ equivalent rent (OER how much money a property owner would have to pay in rent to be equivalent to their cost of homeownership) increased by 0.6% and rent of primary residence rose by 0.7% between June and July.

Monthly increases in OER have averaged 0.6% over the last three months. More cost increases are coming from this category, which will add to inflationary forces in the months ahead. These higher costs are driven by lack of supply and higher development costs. Higher interest rates will not slow these costs, which means the Fed’s tools are limited in addressing shelterNAHBinflation.constructs a “real” rent index to indicate whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than overall inflation. It provides insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing. When inflation in rents is rising faster than overall inflation, the real rent index rises. The real rent index is calculated by dividing the price index for rent by the core CPI (to exclude the volatile food and energy components).

The Real Rent Index rose by 0.4% in July. Over the first seven months of 2022, the monthly change of the Real Rent Index increased by 0.1%, on average.

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