Economics & Employment Growth

Victoriarepresents3%ofAustralia's totallandmass, yetaccountsfor 23.3% ofnationalGDPand competeswiththelargest economiesinSoutheastAsia.It currentlyboaststhehighest contributiontoGDPofanystateor territory.

Victoriaistheleaderinpremium foodandfibreproductsexports accountingfor27%ofAustralia’s foodandfibreexportsin201819.Inaddition,77%ofAustralia’s dairyexports,50%ofAustralia’s horticulturalexportsand32%of Australia’spreparedfoodexports comefromVictoria.

The largest service sector export is the international education sector. In 2018-19, education exports enjoyed 17% year on year growth. Tourism increased by 12% over the same period, indicative of a significant rise in international tourists and students choosing Melbourne as their chosen place to live, study and work.

Victoria is one of two Australian states to receive a triple-A credit rating from Standard & Poors and Moodys – a rating it has managed to retain for 18 years and a reflection of the economic performance that delivered 27 years of continuous economic growth.

One of the structural features of Western economies has been the decline of the manufacturing sector. Melbourne has been able to replace the job losses from this sector with faster growing knowledge-based service sector jobs. This has been a significant theme in the economy since at least the mid 1980’s and one of the success stories of Melbourne with 523,000 new jobs created between November 2014 and March 2020.

Victoriarepresents3%ofAustralia'stotalland mass,yetaccountsfor23.3%ofnationalGDP

2.3

InfrastructureSpending

ThemostsignificantinfrastructurespendinginMelbourneisthePlan Melbourne2017-2050strategy Thisisametropolitanplanningstrategyto managethegrowthinthecityoverthenext29years.Itintegratesover112 actionplanstoaccommodateforpopulation,housing,andemploymentneeds.

MajorgrowthcorridorsintheSouthwest(Wyndham-Geelong),North(Hume) andSoutheast(Dandenong)willultimatelybeconnectedasaplannedeconomic triangle.

Majorinvestmentsinclude:

WestGateTunnelProject

Constructionontheprojectbeganin2018andcompletionisanticipatedfor 2025.ItinvolveswideningtheWestGateTunnelenhancingconnectivityfrom thesouth-westofMelbourneintotheCBD Theprojectisexpectedtocreate 6,000jobs.

MetroTunnelRailLink

The$11billionprojectconsistsoftwo9kilometretraintunnels,includingfive undergroundstationsfromSouthKensingtontoSouthYarra.Theconstruction periodwillresultintheemploymentof3,500people.Constructionbeganin 2018andisforecasttobecompletedby2025.Oncompletiontheprojectwill serviceanextra504,000commutersduringpeakhour

SkyRailProject

Thismulti-billiondollarprojectis aimedateasingtrafficcongestion throughoutthewholeofGreater Melbourne.75differingleveltrain crossingsarebeingremovedand liftedovera5-yearconstruction timeframe.Completionisexpectedto befinishedby2029

FishermansBendUrbanRenewal

Thelargesturbanrenewalproject inAustralia,theprecinctislocated 1kilometresouthwestoftheCBD. Over480hectareshasbeenrezoned forresidential,commercial,and retailspacestoexpandthecapital cityzone.Theareahaspotential toaccommodate80,000jobsand 80,000residentsby2050

2.4

Supply & Demand

The Melbourne property market can be best described as segmented. The result is, significant variation in property market gauges (supply, vacancy rates, time on market, yields and the like) when a suburb-bysuburb approach is taken.

The strong performance in Melbourne’s housing market and strain on affordability is driving demand for townhomes and apartments. This coupled with strong population growth in Metro Melbourne has seen medium and high-density dwellings tenanted and occupied quickly.

Melbourne had a vacancy rate pre COVID-19 of 2.8% as of April 2020, this spiked to 9.4% during the height of the pandemic in October 2020 but has since fallen back to 1.7%, indicating that Melbourne is undersupplied. With projected population increases exceeding those of other capital cities, Melbourne is challenged with the task of ensuring long term strategies are applied that will allow supply to match demand sustainably. Projections suggest that 1.6 million dwellings are required to keep up with population forecasts to 2031 - this will continue to drive demand.

MILL PARK 3.0

3.1

Population & Demographics

Located 18 kilometres northeast of Melbourne's CBD, with access to public transport, close proximity to a range of public and private schools. The City of Whittlesea population forecast for 2023 is 244,124 and is forecast to grow to 360,692 by 2041.

Mill Park had a population of 28,712 people, according to the 2021 census. It is forecasted to grow by 5.8% to have an estimated population of 30,391 by 2041. With the projected population growth dwellings are expected to increase by 4.8% as well over that period.

There is an over representation of couples without children (over 33.0 percent of local families), indicating a specific need for medium and highdensity dwellings. This is exacerbated by the fact that median house price growth has outpaced wage growth over the last four years.

The median house price is currently 54 percent higher than the median unit price. The price difference between houses and apartments will be a significant driver of apartment demand.

Economics & Employment

Data presented by forecast.id displays that the Whittlesea City region currently supports a labour force of over 72,000 residents. The largest supporting industry currently being hospital (except psychiatric hospitals). A key driver for the regional health sector is the NorthPark hospital, located two kilometres south of Mill Park.

Mill Park’s local economy presents a healthy balance between white collar and trade services workers. The unemployment rate in Mill Park is 5.9%. This non-industry specific labour force enhances the stability of the local economy. The even spread of employment provides a micro economy less volatile and susceptible to risks that would more heavily impact those reliant on manufacturing and mining.

The size of Mill Park’s labour force during the census period was 13,298, of which 31.8% were employed part-time and 56.0% were full time workers. Within Mill Park’s workforce, the hospital industry is the largest employer accounting for 4.8% of total employment followed by Supermarket and Grocery Stores (2.6%), Other Social Assistance Services (2.1%) and Primary Education (2.1%). The diversity of the market’s employment base makes it less susceptible to unemployment risks.

Household structure in the suburb is well suited to apartment/ semidetached housing. As at the 2021 census, 51.8% of the Mill Park population were categorised as a lone person household or a couple family without children. Younger professionals increasingly tend to be time poor and generally require dwelling types with two or three bedrooms to accommodate their lifestyle. Matching the type of property to a particular market segment is critical to ensure continued rental demand in the future.

3.3

The Victorian Governments numerous public and private infrastructure plans encompass Melbourne’s north, and Whittlesea City Region. These initiatives include:

• Epping Central – Epping Central plays a major role in providing services, health, justice and education for the community, as well as retail and commercial opportunities. This includes the Northern Hospital, Pacific Epping Shopping Centre, Melbourne Polytechnic and the Epping Services Hub

• Plenty valley Structure Plan –The Plenty Valley Town Centre contains several important business, retail, community and transport activities including Westfield Plenty Valley and the South Morang Train Station. Large areas of undeveloped land within the centre provide developmental potential

• Thomastown Industrial Area –To build upon the Thomastown Industrial Area successes as a sought-after business hub and to facilitate employment growth through innovation and collaboration with stakeholders

• North East Link – The North East Link will run from the M80 through Banyule, join the Eastern Freeway at Bulleen, meet the East Link at Ringwood, and bring dramatic changes to Banyule. North East Link is the biggest ever investment in Melbourne’s north-east – changing the way people move around Melbourne. Victoria’s longest road tunnels will fix the missing link in our city’s freeway network, take 15,000 trucks off local roads a day and slash travel times by up to 35 minutes. They will also complete the Ring Road in Greensborough, overhaul the Eastern Freeway, build Melbourne’s first dedicated busway and the North East Trail –more than 34km of walking and cycling paths

3.4

Supply & Demand

Vacancy Rates 0.8% Gross Rental Yield 4.25% Estimated time on market 30 days

The evolving demography of Mill Park has had direct impacts on the local rental market. The professional demographic that dominates the suburb’s landscape has inflated Mill Park’s tenant pool. According to ABS data, 22.8% of dwellings within Mill Park are rented.

Vacancy Rates

Yields

Implied gross rental yields for apartments were 5.2% and houses were 3.3% as of February 2023 according to data for SQM research. Townhouse rental yields can be deprived for an average between apartment and houses which sees yields for townhouses at 4.25%.

Time on Market