BlueNationStrategies.com @BlueNationStrategies CRYSTAL QUADE FOR GOVERNOR
BLUE NATION STRATEGIES IS A WOMAN-OWNED AND WOMAN-RUN FIRM WITH EXPERIENCE IN OVER 40 STATES.
100% of our team identify as female, LGBTQ+, Black, or Hispanic.
We are committed to and prefer working with female candidates, candidates of color, or first-time candidates.
OUR FULL-SERVICE MODEL , combined with our team’s large-project production experience, means that our clients receive the best of both worlds—the attention of a boutique shop with the execution and cost savings of a large firm.
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We don’t believe our job starts or stops with the mail program. Our goal is to fully engage with your race and jump in where we can — from press releases to organic social media; we love helping our campaigns craft creative and race-winning content every step of the way.
We intentionally take a limited amount of races per cycle so that we can dive in and help. From big U.S. Senate races to local city council, we pride ourselves on the attention we give each race and that each race deserves.
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ABORTION ACCESS ON THE BALLOT
The possibility that abortion rights will be on the ballot in November 2024 in Missouri creates a favorable environment for any Democrat, especially a female candidate not afraid to address abortion access head-on. Since the overturning of Roe, we have seen how abortion ballot measures can dramatically increase turnout on our side — from Kansas to Ohio; voters show up to restore or protect abortion access.
KANSAS — In the first vote on abortion post-Roe, voters in Red Kansas sent a very clear message — defeating the measure by almost 18 points. Women, particularly white women, were the key demographic in this race. While this victory shocked the pundits, a quick look at the voter registration stats leading into the election made it clear — women made up 70% of new registrants post-Dobbs, and Democrats held an 8-point advantage with those new voters.
OHIO — Voters in Ohio voted down issue one by over 14 points. Women, Black voters, and Young voters all saw increased turnout. Women were 56% of the total vote, and Black women especially turned out in significant numbers. Ohio saw an increase in Early Vote across the board, especially with surge voters (folks who didn’t vote in 22 but voted in this election), and 60% of surge voters were women. Our voters show up when abortion access is on the ballot.
ABORTION ON THE BALLOT INCREASED TURNOUT
We looked at what an expanded 2024 electorate would look like (assuming the Republican stall tactics are defeated and the measure is on the ballot).
Key takeaways:
AGE — Age would see the most significant shift with abortion on the ballot in Missouri. With a modest turnout increase, we estimate a 4.13-point bump in turnout for voters under 50 years old, mainly driven by voters under 35.
RACE — As we increase turnout scenarios, black voters increase slightly, but not in the same way young voters do. We see a 1.27-point bump overall.
GENDER — Interestingly enough, the gender split stays roughly the same, unlike the large bumps in Kansas and Ohio.
GEOGRAPHY — The share of voters geographically stays roughly the same under all scenarios. While there is some shifting, the rank ordering of media markets remains approximately the same. St. Louis becomes slightly less important as turnout increases, butit’s still number one; Kansas City sees a slight increase but is still number two.
Assuming abortion is on the ballot in the fall, communicating with this expanded and more youthful electorate is critical to your success.
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CONCLUSION Thank you for taking the time to review our proposal! Please contact Jeannie Carlson with any questions at Jeannie@BlueNationStrategies.com or at 714.875.2857. @BlueNationStrategies