The Great Singapore Reset

A BLACKBOX RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE

THE GREAT SINGAPORE RESET

Following Prime Minister Lawrence Wong’s first National Day Rally speech, where exactly do Singaporeans stand?

T

he next General Election will be a distinct one for Singaporeans. For the first time in its nearly 60year history, the PAP will ask Singaporeans to elect a PM who is neither a member of the Lee family, nor a member of Singapore’s original Pioneer Generation.

Will this prove to be an inflection point for Singaporeans, or simply the latest chapter in the long and successful history for the PAP? While the signs in early 2024 Blackbox polling showed the Government to be challenged off the back of inflation, housing price rises and various political scandals and indiscretions, the appointment of Lawrence Wong as Prime Minister in May 2024 appeared to give the PAP a positive bump. Our latest quarterly SensingSG community sentiment showed some rebound for the Singapore Government and enthusiastic acceptance of the new PM, although most Singaporeans acknowledged they still needed to get to know him properly.

So where do things stand now? The Prime Minister gave his maiden National BLACKBOX RESEARCH

Day Rally (NDR) speech on 18 August and five days later also announced that the Government is looking at further measures to tackle cost-of-living concerns and take better care of seniors. These will be the focus areas for the near future.

How Do Singaporeans Feel About PM Wong Post-NDR? Generally, Singaporeans feel PM Wong’s performance to date has been decent – 17% rate it as “excellent” while 52% rate it as “good”. Only 4% assess his performance to date as “poor” or “very poor”.

However, just over one in four (27%) think his performance has been “soso/average”, and this rises to 35% among those over 50 years old. Given that this group represent the bulk of the voting electorate, there is still some work to do in winning them over. In the heat of an election campaign, the key audience is likely to be older Singaporean voters, many of whom have felt the brunt of recent cost of living pressures and are also more likely to compare and contrast the new 4G leadership team with previous successful Governments.

In contrast, younger Singaporean adults (21-34) have taken to Lawrence Wong quickly, suggesting his personality and approach appears to be working amongst this cohort.

Furthermore, new and shiny counts for something (ask Kamala Harris) - 82% of Singaporeans polled by Blackbox say they agree that Lawrence Wong “offers something fresh” as Prime Minister and “expect him to do well at the next General Election”.

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How Did The New PM’s First NDR Speech Go? Overall, Singaporeans scored the PM’s first NDR Speech a solid “B”. Two in three (66%) said the speech met their expectations while only 15% said it exceeded their expectations.

Of the key announcements made during the speech - there were at least nine Singaporeans were most impressed with (in order of positive rating): 1. Increased housing grants for low income Singaporeans 2. SkillsFuture Job Support Scheme (up to $6000 for six months) 3. $3000 per month for over 40s who enrol in full time training The new 10-week shared spousal parental week entitlement, however, scored highest of all the new announcements amongst under 35s.

This should be positive news for the Government as it continues its neverending quest to encourage larger families and arrest downward population pressures.

The PM’s NDR speech was also notable for its call to action for change. The PM said, in part, that for Singaporeans “realising our new ambitions will require a major reset – a major reset in policies, to be sure; but also a reset in our attitudes.”

Singaporeans appear to have taken this call to action on board and are embracing it: 90% agree that “now is a good time for Singapore to reset its direction, so we are better prepared for the future”; In response to a hypothetical rebuttal that “Singapore does not need a reset because we have done well and should not be trying new things and risking future success” – 40% find this counter-argument convincing, while 60% find it unconvincing.

But voters are more evenly divided on the last part of the PM’s reset statement – his argument that Singaporeans also need to reset their attitudes. While 53% find this argument convincing, 47% find it unconvincing. It is apparent that the BLACKBOX RESEARCH

The new 10-week shared spousal parental week entitlement scored highest of all the new announcements among Singaporeans under 35.

PM and the Government still have their work cut out making the case that Singaporeans too need to press the reset button when it comes to how they think about things.

Overall, the PM and the PAP can feel pleased with the NDR speech. While not everything landed perfectly, the signalling of a need for a Singapore reset was arguably risky and could have generated more immediate questions and pushback. For now, however, it appears to have resonated. The next step for the PM and the Government will be detailing the how.

How Are Singapore’s Main Political Parties Shaping Up for the Next Election?

With the next GE approaching and debate swirling around what new electoral boundaries will look like, it is timely to look at the key parties and where they stand today.

The PAP is dealing with economic problems and some internal controversies; the Workers’ Party (WP) seems to have moved past its Town Council issues but their leader still faces a court case; and the Progress Singapore Party (PSP) - the surprise package in 2020 - while needling at times, have been relatively low-key.

Currently, the PAP currently enjoys a net +54% positive rating amongst Singaporeans. Their net score is fairly consistent across age and gender which indicates that their cut-through is still broad-based.

The Workers’ Party currently holds a net +45 positive rating, while their negatives - like the PAP - fall under 10% overall. The WP’s net positive score shows a distinct gender gap – men are more favourable than women by 11 points (50% vs 39%).

The WP also rates slightly higher amongst over 50s at present.

The other major opposition party, the PSP, whose vote exceeded 10% at the 2020 General Election, currently has a net +10% positive rating. However, their net score is +20% among under 35s and only +3% among over 50s. This is interesting and suggests that their push on public housing related issues may be resonating with younger voters looking to get a foothold on the property ladder.

The Singapore Democratic Alliance (SDA) rates best among the rest of the parties who contested GE2020, with a net positive rating of +12%.

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Messaging Analysis: Blackbox Diametrics While the potential date for the next General Election is still unknown, the political landscape and recent parliamentary and media discourse do offer greater clarity with respect to the topics and issues that will likely emerge front and centre: Cost of living Housing affordability Government accountability (i.e.

Ministerial/party controversies) Leadership and Trust (i.e. New leaders, the WP Court Case) Employment (and how it connects slower domestic growth, impact of recent China economic issues, emergence of AI economy, aging workforce etc.)

Blackbox has recently used a series of hypotheticals in our polling to map out current attitudes and test the elasticity of various arguments that might arise in a campaign setting.

Blackbox Diametrics is our tool that we use to evaluate how counter arguments can challenge prevailing wisdom, legacy messaging or political talking points. This allows us to better visualise the current communications landscape and advise clients as to what can be supported, reinforced, neutralised or negated, depending on their objectives.

As an initial hypothetical exercise (given that neither the pre-election jostling or the election campaign have yet started) we have used Diametrics to look at preGE messaging across three possible dimensions: Stability and Certainty Political Attentiveness New Leadership Narrative

Dimension

Statement (Expression)

Stability and Certainty

The PAP has served Singapore well and has made it a successful country for over 50 years. It deserves to continue as the ruling party of Singapore for the foreseeable future. There is no better alternative.

Political Attentiveness

New Leadership Narrative

Many of the Singapore Government’s policies and attitudes have become out of date, and they only react when there is an outcry from citizens on important issues such as housing eligibility, house prices, cost of living and inflation.

The Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong believes that Singapore needs a "major reset" in order to realise new ambitions of creating a society where individuals can flourish and succeed in their own ways without getting caught up in the rat race. He also argues that Singaporeans, too, must join in this effort by undertaking a major reset in their attitudes.

Stability and Certainty

This dimension hold up reasonably well for the Government. Rebuttals that suggest the PAP’s best days are behind it or that the new leadership is lacking in For each of these we then constructed character are the least convincing to statements in both the positive and the negative and created arguments - 18 in Singaporeans which indicates that the PAP remains a formidable institution for total - against each to see which were the most convincing to poll respondents. most Singaporeans.

Here is a summary of what we found:

BLACKBOX RESEARCH

A more hard-hitting rebuttal (Diametrics +24% net score), however, is the argument that PAP leaders themselves do not understand the day to day pressures of cost of living that families are facing. This reveals the importance for current politicians to be relatable and/or focused on tangible solutions over high level policy prescriptions.

Decision Intelligence

The government is potentially vulnerable to emotionally-driven arguments and vox pops on day to day concerns, but far less so to arguments that it is not capable or has the wrong leadership to address these concerns.

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Those aged 35-49, especially, are less convinced that the Government is doing enough on cost of living and housing.

New Leadership Narrative Finally, we looked at the PM’s recent NDR “reset” message by restating his words for survey respondents and then exploring potential counter arguments to his claim.

Political Attentiveness With this dimension, we tested a negative statement to evaluate whether Singaporeans think the Government has become too reactive and only addresses issues when public anxiety reaches a measurable level.

Overall, our results show that most Singaporeans are less convinced with arguments suggesting the PAP Government has passed its expiry date - this is not a messaging winner.

Importantly, Singaporeans are most convinced by arguments that the Singapore Government is doing better than most other Governments around the world in addressing domestic issues, can be trusted, and is making the right decisions in driving the country forwards.

Where the Government faces some potential pushback is on the level of (quantum) support measures it has provided. Those aged 35-39, especially, are less convinced that the Government is doing enough on cost of living and housing.

Decision Intelligence

Singaporeans find it hard to be convinced that this is a tired Government. (The PAP’s succession timing may be helping.) People still see the PAP as capable and are more likely to argue about whether they are doing enough.

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On this dimension, survey responses were more nuanced and highlighted to us both the sensitivities the PM touched on in his speech and the importance of how this call to action will be elaborated on and decoded in the run up to the General Election.

First and foremost, any counter claim that Singapore is not in need of some reset is roundly rejected by Singaporeans (Diametrics -20% net rating). To that extent, the PM appears to have hit home on some underlying sentiment.

However, our findings suggest that the PM may have underplayed his point and not fully appreciated the extent to which the message has layers.

Looking at three arguments we put to respondents: Singapore needs more than a reset.

It needs major reform in key areas if it is to keep being successful (Diametrics +45% net rating) Certain Singaporeans can flourish but it is becoming harder for ordinary Singaporeans to keep up and succeed (Diametrics +51% net rating) For Singaporeans to succeed in their “own ways” (as stated by the PM) will require having to relook at our whole approach to education (Diametrics +68% net rating - a massive score) As such, it is possible that Singaporeans could be underwhelmed by incremental changes masquerading as a reset and, secondly, interpret a reset as meaning that current perceived disparities will be fully addressed. Expectations will now be high.

DATA CITED IN THIS ARTICLE COMES FROM A POST-NDR POLL IN SINGAPORE CONDUCTED BY BLACKBOX BETWEEN 19 AND 23 AUGUST 2024; AND FROM OUR QUARTERLY SENSINGSG POLLS IN 2024.

Decision Intelligence

Our interpretation is that Singaporeans certainly buy into the idea of re-examining the country’s direction to ensure everyone is afforded the opportunity to succeed. Blackbox Diametric rebuttal findings suggest that Singaporeans expect this call to action to be met with meaningful responses in terms of dealing with perceived wealth and opportunity disparities. Furthermore, the invitation to Singaporeans to look beyond traditional aspirations necessitates wider acceptance and support. Will this be forthcoming?

Wrap Up: Where Does This Leave Us Today?

Blackbox polling points to the PAP being in a reasonable position at this time.

After a rocky start to the year, the smooth transition to a new Prime Minister and a fairly well-received NDR speech have provided the ruling party with a solid launchpad At the same time, the Government is still vulnerable on the hot issues of cost of living and housing and we can expect to see a lot more political debate on these issues. Importantly, the Government is seen to be tackling both, but Singaporeans are questioning as to whether it is enough.

More interesting, however, is PM Wong’s bold call for a Singapore reset. This was a gambit that has initially paid off and, arguably, has served to personalise and differentiate him. But it is also clear from our polling that it is a loaded, nuanced word and open to wide interpretation.

How he manages and communicates his definition of reset in the months ahead may tell us a lot about how the PAP intends to engage its rivals at the next General Election.

GET IN TOUCH TO DISCUSS THE FINDINGS FURTHER: CONNECT@BLACKBOX.COM.SG