LEGISLATIVE UPDATE Oregon Legislative Outlook

Oregon Legislative Outlook

By: Roger Beyer

Big I Oregon Lobbyist

This article was written in December 2022.

Tina Kotek will be the next Governor and she is now working to assemble her team to run the state. When she is sworn in on January 9th, we will get the first look at how she plans to govern: will she look to work in a bi-partisan, inclusive manner or return to her past style of-my way or the highway approach? How she sets the tone will have a big impact on the legislative session which begins in earnest the following week.

A near modern day record number of freshmen will be entering the 2023 legislative bodies. In the Senate, five of the thirty members will be new, but four of those are moving over from the House of Representatives. In the House, twenty-one of the sixty members will be new with two of those returning after a break in their service. This is the largest number of new legislators since 2003, in which we saw 36. In addition to the 20 new members, 5 current Senators and 14 current Representatives have never experienced committees conducted in person or have very little, if any, experience meeting with constituents or lobbyists in person. All the new members, the recent lockouts from the public and the Democrats losing one seat in the Senate and two in the House, will make for a very interesting and trying session in 2023.

While Democrats will continue to control both chambers in the legislature, they no longer have a super majority in either chamber and these dynamics could mean trouble for those in new leadership roles.

In the House, Speaker Dan Rayfield will be returning along with Democrat Leader Julie Fahey and Republican Leader Viki BreeseIverson. These three successfully navigated the 2022 short session as new leaders. Time will tell if they can successfully negotiate these new hurdles they now face.

For the first time in 20 years, Peter Courtney is not returning as the Senate President. Democrat leader Rob Wagner has been chosen by his caucus to be the next president and Kate Lieber will succeed him as caucus leader. Tim Knopp will be returning as Republican leader so this new team will need to figure out how to work together to run a successful session.

As I write this, we are still waiting for the new leaders to make committee chair assignments.

I don’t expect a big change in the House, as Speaker Rayfield is the person who appoints the current chairs. With the new President of the Senate, just about anything is possible.

As committee chairs control their agendas, these assignments will forecast the direction for the 2023 session.

All three constitutional amendment proposals on the ballot were passed and two of the measures could greatly affect all future legislative sessions.

Measure 111 makes affordable health care a fundamental right. How the legislature will balance this new requirement with the funding of schools, public safety and other services is yet to be seen. I foresee lawsuits in the future if people from any of these new interest groups are unhappy with the outcome of a legislatively passed budget. Like we have seen in other states, judges, not legislators, may now have the final say on state budgets.

Measure 113 prohibits a legislator with ten or more unexcused absences from running in the next election. This will fundamentally end the practice of legislative walkouts as, unless it is staged in the final days of a session, all the participants would be, in practice, “quitting” the legislature. This certainly will change the “tools” available for the minority party to use as they try to be relevant in the discussions.

The combination of M111 and M113 may help make the minority party more relevant as legislators work to balance the budget. I believe there will be less money to fund these new “fundamental needs.” This could lead to the desire for increased taxes, which will play right into the Republicans’ hands as there will now be the need for at least some Republicans to vote “yes” in order to increase revenue.

The 2023 session began on Monday, January 9 with organizational days and the rest of the week for training. Official business kicks off on the 17th and must end by June 25th. The initial list of bills will be available on the 9th, but I have already heard talk of some bills we have seen or heard about previously. DCBS is reintroducing the bill to prohibit the use of credit scoring for auto policies and the bill to prohibit insurance companies from using state wildfire maps to change or cancel fire insurance was introduced by the Senate Wildfire Committee. I expect there will be other reoccurring measures, in addition to the new ones to be worked on.