Pacific Northwest Market Report - Q3 2022 - North Region

PACIFIC NORTHWEST MARKET REPORT Puget Sound / SW Washington / Oregon

Q3 2022

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Q3

2022 MARKET REPORT

ABOUT THIS REPORT The Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Quarterly Market Report features the latest MLS data and local market statistics. Through year-over-year comparisons of key performance indicators and market summaries, this report delivers a comprehensive overview of residential real estate activity for the regions we service across the Pacific Northwest, including: • Greater Seattle Metro (King, Pierce, and Snohomish) • Southwest Washington (Vancouver Metro Area) • Greater Portland Metro Area • Mid-Willamette Valley (Marion, Polk, Linn, and Benton) • Eugene, Coastal, and Southern Oregon • Central Oregon Learn about trends affecting sales activity and price, read decisive takeaways for each market, and empower yourself with Northwest Knowledge.

ABOUT US Since 1942, we’ve been helping people buy and sell homes in Oregon and Washington. With 33 offices and a growing regional network of nearly 1,000 real estate professionals, we lead the Northwest in delivering exceptional service backed by data-driven market intelligence, just like you’ll find throughout this report.

For more information and assistance to help successfully navigate today’s real estate market, contact your local Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices broker.

We are Good to know.® All statistics are based upon MLS data for the period of 07/01/22 - 09/30/22.

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Q3

2022 MARKET REPORT

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR Every real estate market has its opportunities and challenges, and this Q3 2022 Pacific Northwest market is no different. Following years of tailwinds, the real estate market finally faces the long-anticipated growing headwinds that are cooling down the nation’s decade-long housing market boom. The difference between now and the previous housing recession is that current conditions are being shaped in large part by underinvestment as opposed to irresponsible lending. The current housing market pivot is not akin to the subprime lending-fueled crash that sparked the ‘Great Recession’ in 2008.

Not long ago, real estate professionals, their sellers, and buyers were having M.O.M conversations about the housing market, or how many minutes-on-market it will be before going under contract. Today expectations are trending back to the traditional D.O.M conversation, or how many days-on-market before we receive an offer. The days of unprecedented contract terms and record-high home price appreciation are no more. Despite weaker sales, as compared to historic numbers, prices remain resilient and more than a quarter of homes on the market are selling at or above list price because demand still exceeds supply.

For buyers, competition has decreased as some step away from the market, voluntarily or involuntarily, so if you’re serious about purchasing property, you can expect a more normal, traditional negotiation and sale life cycle. For sellers, the return on investment and equity remains near record levels. A well-priced home is still a sought-after commodity, and the pricing expertise of a Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices sales professional can get you the most possible value for your home.

What is historically true and continues to be true today is that most real estate transactions are the result of a life event. And, even in times of economic uncertainty, life changes still influence buying and selling decisions.

In fact, in this recalibrating marketplace, a trusted real estate professional – someone with extensive localmarket knowledge, a sharply honed skill set, and a proven track record for service excellence – is more important than ever. So, after you’ve reviewed the latest Northwest Knowledge™ in our Q3 report, reach out to us. We’re always here to guide you home.

Jason Waugh, President & CEO Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Northwest Real Estate Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Real Estate Professionals

LETTER FROM THE EDITOR

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Greater Seattle Metro Area (King, Pierce, and Snohomish) We’re approaching the typical selling seasonality coupled with a definitive reset in the market, thus creating a less competitive environment for buyers looking to purchase. Despite higher interest rates, home prices remain resilient, though the rate of acceleration is slowing down throughout the Greater Seattle Metro Area. Average days on market lengthened this quarter, as new listings and active listings both posted year-over-year declines.

NEW LISTINGS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS In the Greater Seattle Metro Area, new listings (20,049) fell 15% this quarter from year-ago figures. However, active listings were up 5% year-over-year to end Q3 2022 at a total of 28,473 active listings throughout King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties.

DAYS ON MARKET Days on market jumped 64% to end Q3 2022 at an average of 23 days, up from 14 days this quarter last year. In Juanita/Woodinville, average days on market was 24 days, a 140% year-over-year rise.

North Seattle posted the lowest average days on market (17 days), though the average days on market was still 13% higher than this time last year. And while average days on market increased in almost every submarket throughout the Greater Seattle Metro Area, Central Seattle went against this trend with a days-on-market average of 19 days, a 32% decline from year-ago figures.

PENDING SALES AND CLOSED TRANSACTIONS Pending sales (14,890) missed the mark by 30% this quarter, while closed transactions also fell, declining 32% from year-ago figures to end Q3 2022 at 15,413. Closed units were down across the region, decreasing year-over-year by 34%, 27%, and 31% in King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties, respectively. In Mercer Island, closed units (69) fell 50% from the same time period last year.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Average sales price in the Greater Seattle Metro Area ($857,108) was up a slight 5% from year-ago figures. In Dash Point/Federal Way, average sales price increased 12% to $589,599, the highest yearover-year percentage gain in the region. At $2,803,104, Mercer Island recorded the highest average sales price in the region, which was a 3% jump from year-ago figures.

Q3

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

2022 MARKET REPORT

GREATER SEATTLE METRO 2021

2022

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $810,004

WEST SEAT TLE

16

$877,583

18

$1,018,375

CENTRAL SEAT TLE

28

$1,104,821

19

$1,037,323

NOR TH SEAT TLE

15

$1,076,315

17

$637,294

BURIEN/NORMANDY PARK

15

$641,556

19

$581,549

KENT

12

$622,252

22 $1,546,869

BELLEVUE

14

$1,556,147

22

$524,703

FEDERAL WAY/DASH POINT

11

$589,599

20

$829,859

GIG HARBOR/KEY PENINSULA

14

$877,188

25

$511,369

TACOMA/UNIVERSIT Y PLACE

14

$549,599

23

$522,378

PUYALLUP

13

$577,340

28

$737,044

LYNNWOOD/EDMONDS

11

$814,157

22

$571,248

EVERE T T

11

$622,854

21 $2,718,851

MERCER ISLAND

20

$1,201,774

REDMOND/CARNATION KIRKLAND/BRIDLE TRAILS

11

$1,335,154

21

$1,325,360

13

$1,396,991

22

$1,200,589

JUANITA/WOODINVILLE

10

$1,260,352

$0K

GREATER SEATTLE METRO

16

$2,803,104

$375K

$750K

$1.1M

24

$1.5M

$1.8M

$2.2M

$2.6M

$3M

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Q3

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

2022 MARKET REPORT

GREATER SEATTLE METRO 2021

2022

NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS

1,500 1,800

1,670

1,600 1,400

1,272

1,200 1,000

1,021

900

902

800

825 743

700 689

600

614

655

570

500 400

688

658

431

431

533 437

431

417

415

416 379

345

300

330

307

200

EVERE T T

LYNNWOOD/ EDMONDS

PUYALLUP

TACOMA/ UNIVERSIT Y PLACE

GIG HARBOR/ KEY PENINSULA

FEDERAL WAY/ DASH POINT

BELLEVUE

KENT

BURIEN/ NORMANDY PARK

NOR TH SEAT TLE

CENTRAL SEAT TLE

WEST SEAT TLE

100

700 600

627 585

500 400

353

300

379 255

200 100

137

137

GREATER SEATTLE METRO

JUANITA/ WOODINVILLE

KIRKLAND/ BRIDLE TRAILS

REDMOND/ CARNATION

MERCER ISLAND

69

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Southwest Washington Area (Vancouver Metro) Inventory in Southwest Washington is still well below normal levels, though it did increase to 1.9 months in September 2022. Expectedly, new listings, active listings, and closed transactions fell compared to the same time last year. Average sales price was up 10% from year-ago figures, but with last quarter’s 16% yearover-year percentage change, Q3’s figure points to a slowdown in the rate of price appreciation, which we would expect from a balancing market.

DAYS ON MARKET Average days on market in Southwest Washington increased 53% from year-ago figures to an average of 26 days. In every city surveyed except Ridgefield, days on market increased; in Ridgefield, average days on market (23 days) fell 4% from year-ago figures, which was also the fastest average in the region.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Average sales price increased 10% from year-ago figures to $589,903 this quarter. Average sales price in Washougal climbed 20% to $731,398 while the average price in Woodland this quarter - $514,096 - fell 8% from year-ago figures.

CLOSED TRANSACTIONS AND PENDING SALES Closed transactions (2,079) declined 31% year-overyear. Pending sales decreased 33% to 1,892 this quarter. Throughout the region, closed units were down in all Southwest Washington cities surveyed for this report, though closed units in Woodland only missed the mark by 4% to end the quarter at 54 units.

NEW LISTINGS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS At 2,498, new listings in Southwest Washington declined 26%; active listings (3,769) were down 6% compared with year-ago figures.

Q3

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

2022 MARKET REPORT

SW WASHINGTON 2021

2022

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $481,205

VANCOUVER

13

$525,269

24 $607,314

WASHOUGAL

22 $731,398

42

$580,107

BAT TLE GROUND

30

$629,621

31

$558,869

WOODLAND

21

$514,096

30 $623,455

LA CENTER

24

$657,932

37

$618,627

RIDGEFIELD

24 $700,694

23

$735,094

CAMAS

23 $792,992

29

$363,981

LONGVIEW/KELSO

16

$379,603

$200K

$300K

25

$400K

$500K

$600K

$700K

$800K

$900K

NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS 325 2000

275

1600

250

1400

225 1,263 1,252 1,338

244

235

200 175

1000

150

800

173

172

175

155

125 102

75

76 54

36

LONGVIEW/ KELSO

56

CAMAS

VANCOUVER

50

WOODLAND

200

RIDGEFIELD

100

400

LA CENTER

600

SW WASHINGTON

238

BAT TLE GROUND

1200

260

257

WASHOUGAL

1800

300 1,948

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Greater Portland Metro Area The Portland Metro Area remains inventory starved as Q3 averaged just 2.0 months of supply. Homes are spending more time on the market as closed transactions lag behind last year’s figures. With higher interest rates tempering buyer demand, this also puts downward pressure on pricing in the Greater Portland Metro Area, and we’re finally seeing the pace of price appreciation decline. Given the frenzy of our 2021 market, this is an expected adjustment; a more balanced market gives buyers time to make the best decisions possible and allows for previously unsustainable price gains to reach a more reasonable pace of growth.

DAYS ON MARKET At 23 days, the average days on market in the Greater Portland Metro Area was 35% slower than this time last year.

However, a city-by-city analysis reveals that in some Portland area markets this quarter, the average days on market was faster than this time last year. In Canby, average days on market (23 days) fell 12% from year-ago figures and in West Portland, average days on market (28 days) dropped 13% compared with this same time last year.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Average sales price ticked up 6% this quarter to $614,200, compared with $581,492 in Q3 last year. Average sales price in Yamhill/Carlton jumped 25% from year-ago figures to $633,819. With an average sales price of $1,051,769, Lake Oswego posted the highest average price in the region, which represented a 1% decrease from the same time period last year.

PENDING SALES AND CLOSED TRANSACTIONS Pending Sales (6,827) declined 31% this quarter and closed transactions (7,398) fell 28% from year-ago figures. Though all cities surveyed posted fewer closed transactions this quarter compared with Q3 2021, closed transactions in Tigard/ Tualatin fell a slight 8% to end Q3 2022 at 271 closed units.

NEW LISTINGS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS New listings (10,031) declined 16% year-over-year while active listings dropped 3% to end Q3 2022 at 14,482.

Q3 2022 MARKET REPORT GREATER PORTLAND METRO PACIFIC NORTHWEST

2021

2022

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $707,165

POR TLAND - W

32

$760,755

POR TLAND - N

28

$510,681

21

$508,971

25

$573,386

POR TLAND - NE

17

$595,634

21

$524,708

POR TLAND - SE

15

$542,374

23 $701,296

NW WASHINGTON COUNT Y

14

$741,573

22

LAKE OSWEGO

13 23

$527,812

16

$579,737

22

$566,097

15

$598,200

25

$589,970

13

$603,191

24

$545,174

CANBY

26

$613,276

23

$519,583

BEAVER TON/ALOHA TIGARD/TUALATIN

12

$554,292

21

$554,660

14 18

$627,378 $665,315

WILSONVILLE

19

$701,092

22 12

$530,906

HILLSBORO/FOREST GROVE

22

$590,393 $678,897

SHER WOOD

18

$707,456

21

$485,958

16

$462,924

21

$508,256

YAMHILL/CARLTON

14 $633,819

22

$541,039

NEWBERG

GREATER PORTLAND METRO

24

$510,302

OREGON CIT Y

$250K

17

$473,407

MILWAUKIE/CLACKAMAS/HAPPY VALLEY

COLUMBIA COUNT Y

19

$899,618

SANDY

MCMINNVILLE

19

$816,296

WEST LINN GRESHAM/TROUTDALE

$1,059,839 $1,051,769

26

$576,728

19

$413,505

16

$451,927

$375K

25

$500K

$625K

$750K

$875K

$1M

$1.1M

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Q3

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

2022 MARKET REPORT

GREATER PORTLAND METRO 2021

2022

NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS 1300 1,257

1200 1100 1000

1,045

900

930 890

861

800 700

767

624 682

660

600 500 455

382

334

327

301

280

200

205

201

201 156

OREGON CIT Y

MILWAUKIE/ CLACKAMAS/ HAPPY VALLEY

GRESHAM/ TROUTDALE

134

WEST LINN

LAKE OSWEGO

NW WASHINGTON COUNT Y

POR TLAND - NE

POR TLAND - N

POR TLAND - W

POR TLAND - SE

100

110

BEAVERTON/ ALOHA

300

476

435

CANBY

463

400

800 700

722

600 500 485

400

176

171

126 26

YAMHILL/ CARLTON

MCMINNVILLE

72

143

NEWBERG

102

COLUMBIA COUNT Y

133

SANDY

122

SHER WOOD

146 101

TIGARD/ TUALATIN GREATER PORTLAND METRO

198

165

100

HILLSBORO/ FOREST GROVE

200

326

295 271

WILSONVILLE

300

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Mid-Willamette Valley (Marion, Polk, Linn, and Benton) Fewer new listings and extended time on market throughout the Mid-Willamette Valley helped slow the pace of price appreciation, though average price remained 6% higher than year-ago figures.

DAYS ON MARKET Average days on market in the Mid-Willamette Valley climbed 55% from 20 days in Q3 2021 to 31 days this quarter. Average days on market in Independence (36 days) jumped 200% from this time last year, while average days on market in Philomath (25 days) dropped 22% from year-ago figures.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Average sales price ($455,541) increased 6% from the same time period last year. In Monmouth, average sales price decreased by 4% from year-ago figures, ending the quarter at $459,491.

PENDING SALES AND CLOSED TRANSACTIONS Pending sales (1,320) dropped 26% year-over-year, while home sales also fell, declining 27% to end Q3 2022 at 1,388. In Monmouth, closed units posted a strong quarter, increasing 23% to 58 units. In Philomath, closed units were down 40% to end Q3 2022 at 37 units.

NEW LISTINGS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS New listings (1,829) decreased 17% from year-ago figures.

Active listings missed the mark by 1%, ending the quarter at 2,720.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Q3

2022 MARKET REPORT

MID-WILLAMETTE VALLEY 2021

2022

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $420,201

SALEM/KEIZER

18

$452,735

28

$464,434

STAY TON

19

$471,410

24

$401,635

DALLAS

24 $460,429

30

$476,178

MONMOUTH

36

$459,491

50

$414,105

INDEPENDENCE

12

$422,384

36

$473,911

PHILOMATH

32

$487,132

25

$412,193

ALBANY

16 $442,989

28

$498,560

COR VALLIS

19 $562,260

34

$389,709

LEBANON

29

$395,883

33

$348,349

SWEE T HOME

21

$370,866

$0K

MID-WILLAMETTE VALLEY

$100K

$200K

$300K

37

$400K

$500K

$600K

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Q3

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

2022 MARKET REPORT

MID-WILLAMETTE VALLEY NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS 2021

2022

1,400 1,200

1,259

1,000 899

800 600 400

SALEM/ KEIZER

200

340 320

328 313

300 280 260 257

240

242

220 200 180 160

162

140

148 129

120 100

108

80 72

60 58 46 37

MID-WILLAMETTE VALLEY

SWEET HOME

37

LEBANON

INDEPENDENCE

MONMOUTH

DALLAS

STAY TON

20

CORVALLIS

47

43

ALBANY

47

PHILOMATH

40

68

62

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Eugene, Coastal & Southern Oregon (Lane, Tillamook, and Douglas) Prices were still on the rise throughout Eugene, Coastal, and Southern Oregon. Closed units were generally lower than the same time period last year and the average days on market was slower in some cities. However, Garibaldi and Netarts/Oceanside didn’t follow the regional trend; days on market fell significantly, while the number of closed units in Tillamook increased from Q3 of last year.

DAYS ON MARKET In the region, average days on market increased 32%, from 19 days in Q3 2021 to 25 days in Q3 2022. In Garibaldi, average days on market dropped an astounding 86%, from 145 days this time last year to just 20 days this quarter. In Netarts/Oceanside, average days on market fell 71% to end the quarter at a fast-moving 17 days.

CLOSED UNITS Closed transactions (1,852) declined 16% from year-ago figures. In Tillamook, closed units increased 8% from 36 units in Q3 2021 to 39 units this quarter.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Average sales price throughout the region was up 7%, ending the quarter at $449,813. In Lebanon, average sales price increased only slightly, rising 2% to $395,883.

NEW LISTINGS, ACTIVE LISTINGS, AND PENDING SALES New listings (2,153) fell 16% from year-ago figures while active listings (3,212) declined 2%. Pending sales (1,767) were also down, falling 17% compared with the same time last year.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Q3

2022 MARKET REPORT

EUGENE, COASTAL, & SOUTHERN OREGON 2021

2022

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $472,311

EUGENE

18

$383,685

31

$253,793

145

$351,250

TILLAMOOK

20

$389,770

38

$395,446

44 $655,743

NETARTS/ OCEANSIDE

58 $858,500

FLORENCE

$0K

20

$348,004

ROSEBURG GARIBALDI

14

$516,085

$200K

EUGENE, COASTAL, & SOUTHERN OREGON

17

$408,957

35

$422,991

35

$400K

$600K

$800K

$1M

$1.2M

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Q3

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

2022 MARKET REPORT

EUGENE, COASTAL, & SOUTHERN OREGON 2021

2022

NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS

900 800

897

700

707

650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 246

200 192

150

151

100

111

EUGENE, COASTAL, & SOUTHERN OREGON

19

10

FLORENCE

39

36

TILLAMOOK

2

GARIBALDI

ROSEBURG

EUGENE

7

NETARTS/ OCEANSIDE

50

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Central Oregon Like most markets throughout the Pacific Northwest, real estate indicators in Central Oregon are showing signs of transition as we see a definite change from the unsustainable trajectory of 2020 and 2021 into a more balanced marketplace. New and active listings have dropped compared with this same time last year; sales were lower throughout the region; and homes spent more time on the market than they did in 2021.

However, price appreciation was still happening at a double-digit pace for all markets surveyed this quarter, which reflects strong buyer demand for Central Oregon homes.

NEW AND ACTIVE LISTINGS New listings in Central Oregon (1,550) fell 28% from year-ago figures and active listings in Q3 2022 (2,644) missed the mark by 5% compared with this same time period last year.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Average sales price increased 14% year-over-year to end Q3 2022 at $793,699 for the region. In Sunriver, average sales price jumped 31% from year-ago figures to $892,400.

PENDING SALES AND CLOSED TRANSACTIONS Pending sales (1,188) were down 31% compared with the same time period last year and closed transactions were also down 31%, ending Q3 2022 at 1,284 for the region. In Redmond/Terrebonne, closed units (265) this quarter dropped 43% from year-ago figures.

DAYS ON MARKET Days on market slowed 26% from year-ago figures to an average of 29 days, up from an average of 23 days in Q3 2021. The market in Bend was slightly faster this quarter with an average of 26 days, representing a 4% decrease from the days-on-market average last year.

In Redmond/Terrebonne, average days on market climbed 107% from year-ago figures to 29 days this quarter.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Q3

2022 MARKET REPORT

CENTRAL OREGON 2021

2022

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $805,566

BEND $485,412

REDMOND/ TERREBONNE

29 $679,308

18 $892,400

$150K

$300K

26 14

$557,143

SUNRIVER

$0K

27

$892,708

$450K

$600K

$750K

24

$900K

NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS 500 450 1,200

400 350

1,071

300

750

765

600

200

450

150

300

100

150

50

BEND CENTRAL OREGON

250

265

82 65

SUNRIVER

900

REDMOND/ TERREBONNE

1,050

461

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

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