MEMBERSHIP NEWSLETTER
March 2020
The Chamber Perspective 801 S Hanover Street, Carlisle, PA
www.carlislechamber.org
New Members
Timothy Cox Black Flag Arms Company Carlisle, PA 17013 (717) 440-3080 lapd1820@gmail.com blackflagarmscompany.com
Our annual Economic Forecast, sponsored once again this year by Wilmington Trust, provided our membership with a pretty vivid snapshot of what we can expect might happen with our economy over the next few months. The Presidential election, the threat of the coronavirus, and other factors will directly impact our businesses in many different ways. One of the major issues she addressed was that of labor force productivity and how it’s measured. In the past, the equation has always been constant and remains the same to this day. However, with the increase of globalization, as well as automation the measurements can no longer remain as it always has. Therefore, the final numbers for productivity are not always what they seem, but it does not discount its value to businesses. Make no mistake, globalization and automation are not scapegoats, but instead, an added variable to the productivity equation to ensure accurate measurements. Rhea Thomas, an Economist from Wilmington Trust states “an epidemic typically affects GDP growth most directly through reduced consumer spending activity, with a particular hit to industries such as transportation, retail, entertainment, and tourism, as individuals refrain from activities outside the home to avoid infection. Though it is difficult to isolate the pure economic impact of SARS from other factors influencing the economy, it is still instructive to look at past GDP growth. During the SARS outbreak, Chinese GDP fell from 11.1% y/y in 1Q 2003 to 9.1% y/y in 2Q 2003, before recovering to 10.0% y/y by 3Q and 4Q 2003 and fully rebounding to 11.6% y/y by 2Q 2004. Hong Kong and Canada, the countries with the next highest death tolls due to SARS (299 and 44 respectively), experienced similar impacts. This suggests a hit to GDP for roughly one– to two quarters based on the SARS experience.”1 Our area has a number of distribution centers and warehouses, so the impact of a slowing of product movement from China could potentially have an impact on the availability of goods in the months to come. So we are asking you – How is your business doing? Is 2020 going to a strong year for your business/firm? What is the impact of technological changes on your business? Ms. Thomas stated the importance productivity to economic growth – are seeing in your businesses overall performance? Please email me with your responses – we are listening and want to know how you are doing!
Michelle Hornick Crowley Rhea Thomas, “Coronavirus Concerns: Monitoring the Risks Closley, but Not Reacting in Portfolios Yet”, Wilmington Wire, January 28, 2020
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Alex Dapkewicz Diakon Wilderness Center 571 Mountain Rd. P.O. Box 10 Boiling Springs, PA 17007 (717) 960-6722 dapkewicza@diakon.org www.diakon.org Brian Walsh Frey Transportation 102 N. West St. Carlisle, PA 17013 (717) 686-6068 Bwalsh@freytransportation.com Jessica Barefoot Grove Financial & Assoc., Inc. 155 W. High St. Carlisle, PA 17013 (717) 243-7323 j.barefoot@grovefinancial.net thegroveinsuranceagency.com Prudence Hessou HSP Solutions P.O. Box 936 Carlisle, PA 17013 (717) 347-9868 prudence.hessou@hspsolutions.net hspsolutions.net Eve Webster Kindred Kaboodle LLC 5 N. Hanover Carlisle, PA 17013 (223) 212-5988 kindredkaboodle@gmail.com www.kindredkaboodle.com Mary Caceres Magnolia Bloom Photography 340 E. Louther St., Ste. 6 Carlisle, PA 17015 (717) 461-3038 Mary@magnoliabloomphotography.com www.magnoliabloomphotography.com/ Continued on page 4...