Graphic Images: Autocrats and the Use of Power

Graphic Images AUTOCRATS AND THE USE OF POWER

2

Graphic Images AUTOCRATS AND THE USE OF POWER

Diagnosing Democratic Decline

carefully constructed algorithms by our partners at the Institute for Competitiveness, we collected data points that showed the driving forces of political instability and social unrest in case studies such as Brexit, the elections of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, and the 2016 U.S. general

In 2015, the Bertelsmann Foundation launched its Disrupting

election. We took more than 10,000 pieces of raw data and converted

Democracy series to investigate the causes of a global downward

them into a compendium of 100 visualizations that provided a

trend in democratic governance and public support for democracy.

degree of depth that went well beyond any written analysis.

As we began this journey, the United Kingdom was still a member of the European Union, Donald Trump was best known for his work on

In Graphic Images: Autocrats and the Use of Power, the series’

“Celebrity Apprentice”, and attention to public health concerns largely

fourthandfinalinstallment,weexaminethewaysinwhichthree

focusedontheseasonalu.fl Somuchhaschangedinsuchashorttime.undemocratic regimes undermine the prospects for democracy and stability in their respective regions. We do this by drawing Weexaminedinthefirstvolumeof Disrupting Democracy the

on more than 15 years of country- and regional-level data from

ways in which technological innovations transform countries

the Bertelsmann (Stiftung) Transformation Index to produce

at various stages of political and technological development.

illuminating infographics. They shed light on Russian President

Our case studies — India, Germany, Israel, Cuba, and the United

Vladimir Putin’s assault on domestic democratic institutions,

States — demonstrated distinct experiences at the intersection of

which has strengthened his capacity to intervene militarily and

technology and democracy. But there were common themes that

through disinformation campaigns in post-Soviet Eurasia. The

cut across all the countries. Bridging the urban-rural access divide,

infographics also show the ability of Iran’s weak government to

combatting disinformation, and addressing the displacement of

leverage limited resources to bolster nationalism, and effectively

traditional media presented policy challenges with which each

reshape the Middle East. And they highlight China’s embrace

government had to contend in their own ways.

ofitssuperpowerstatustomold,througheconomicinfluence, aninternationallandscapereflectingitsownvaluesystem,and

We probed deeper in the second volume of Disrupting Democracy

thereby offer a counterexample to American governance.

by conducting our work within the crucible of election campaigns.

Those pages tell the tales of the Democratic Party’s “blue wave”

Theimagesyound fi inthefollowingpagesoftenpresentableak

in the 2018 U.S. midterm elections, history-making victories for

picture for democracy’s prospects in 2022. We could react with

populism in Mexico and Italy, and Russia’s ongoing attempts to

despair. Or we can treat this book as a clarion call to begin reversing

influenceelectoraloutcomesinneighboringLatvia.Thesecases the steep democratic decline that we have observed since launching revealedanunbalancedledgerofcostsandbenefitsfortechnology Disrupting Democracy. Our hope is that your choice will be clear by on campaigning, elections systems and governance.

thetimeyouturnthenal fi pageofthisvolume.

Wedefiedexpectationsinthethirdvolume Disrupting of Democracy

Irene Braam

by using technology to explain democracy in the 21st century

Executive Director

rather than looking at its impact on democracy. Through the use of

Bertelsmann Foundation, February 2022 3

Methodology

functionally and empirically. We understand transformation as politically driven change in which an authoritarian system and a state-dominated or clientelist economic order evolve

The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index (BTI) analyzes

in the direction of democracy and a market-based economy.

and evaluates whether and how 137 developing and transforma-

However, this implies neither linear, irreversible develop-

tion countries are steering social change toward democracy and

ment nor a predetermined path of transformation, nor does

a market economy. Far more than being just a ranking, the BTI

it suggest that there is an ideal sequence of milestones to

distinguishes itself from other international studies by:

be passed. While the BTI holds that freedom of choice and freedom from want are universal aspirations best achieved in

Basing its numerical assessments on qualitative evaluations.

Each of the 7,124 individual indicator scores is backed up by a separate paragraph in more than 5,000 pages of country reports and allows for informed international comparison.

a democratic system and a market-based economic setting, it does not adhere to any particular existing institutional model.

COUNTRY SELECTION Transformation management toward more open societies differs from reform management in long-consolidated democratic systems with well-advanced economies and thus requires a

Analyzing processes of transformation comprehensively.

defined“thresholdofconsolidation,”theTransformation

By studying political transformation, economic development and

isation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

governance quality simultaneously, the BTI sheds light on their

by the year 1989. This is not to suggest that these countries

complex interplay in societal change.

have achieved a static end-state, but that good governance

different set of assessment criteria. In the absence of a clearly Index excludes all countries that were members of the Organ-

and the resulting reform agenda are not centered around the

Assessing governance with expert-based analyses.

Relying on an academic network of close to 300 country and regional experts in more than 120 countries, the BTI offers textbased evaluations to explain successes and failures in governance.

systemic component of overcoming a closed regime.

Small states with fewer than 1 million residents are also not examined in the BTI, except Bhutan and Montenegro as particularly interesting cases of transformation. Since 2003, the number of countries surveyed has increased from 116 to137.Theyaredividedintosevenregionalgroups:Latin America and the Caribbean (22 countries), West and Central

4

The BTI’s normative reference points for good governance

Africa (22), Southern and Eastern Africa (22), Middle East

– democracy under the rule of law and a market economy an-

and North Africa (19), East-Central and Southeast Europe

chored in principles of social justice – are closely related both

(17), Post-Soviet Eurasia (13), and Asia and Oceania (22).

Indicators

Criteria

INDEX AGGREGATION

pm e

tio itu st

so ra t

ic

in

la nd ty

of

de

Po

m

lit

oc

ica

cio f so

ns

cia l in

te gr at io

n

mi cd eve lo

eco

no

aniz atio Org

el o Dimensions

nt

n of and the ma rk com peti et tion

Bank ing s Libe ystem raliz atio n of fore ign t rade Com pet ition poli Ma cy rke t or gan So cio izat eco ion no mi cb arr ier s Ap So cia pr ov l ca al p ita of l de m oc In ra te cy re st gr ou Pa ps rty sy st em

Monet ary sta bility

Fiscal stabi lity

stability

Property rights

and fiscal Monetary

Lev

Gove perfo rnan rm ce an ce

G o ve rna nc e

Regional cooperation

peration

x de In

St

ab

ili

Economic transformation

S tat us In

t

cal n liti atio Po orm f ns ra

International coo

l of ve ty Le cul ffi di

ns tio u t i st ns in io ic ut t t i ra s st in ht oc rig m tic l e a i r v d Ci oc o se tt bu em d en ea f c i o m f it of ry ce m of icia an m ion m jud t r t Co u n ec rfo de rs os en Pe we Pr ep po d of In n tio n ara ssio Sep pre f ex o m ts edo righ Fre law bly f em o s s a / le n tion Ru over ocia to g Ass wer o p ctive s Effe ction ir ele nd fa a n e o e i r F ipat rtic tration l pa a dminis c i t Basic a oli

P

x de

Credibility

Private property

Private enterprise gime Welfare re y nets Social safet ance erform mic p nity Econo pportu Equal o y bilit aina Sust ength ut str Outp cy l poli enta onm lty Envir licy o icu p iff R&D fd on / lo s cati t ve Edu rain Le nst l co s ura ion uct dit Str tra ety oci y il s sit Civ en d int led ale ca ict c es nfl es Pr Co xr w PP de la .c.

In of Ip n le io GN at Ru uc & Ed ss ne UN te ta IS BT

Pr io rit iza Im tio pl n em en Po ta lic tio yl ea n rn Eff i ici ng en tu se Po of licy as co se ord ts ina An ti-c tio orr n up St tio ee np Con rin olic sen y sus g ca on g pa oal Ant s i-de bi mo lit R crat es y ou ic a ctor r Clea c e s vage eff / con ici en flict man cy agem Civil s ociet ent y par ticipa tion Con Reconc sen iliation susbuil ding Effective us e of suppo rt

Stateness

gmas ligious do ence of re No interfer State identity Monopoly on the use of force

Dimensions

Criteria

Indicators

into a Status Index follows the normative premise of the BTI,

communicatingndings fi toabroaderpublic.Rankingsnecessarily

under which transformation is always conceived of as a com-

reduce complexity in order to highlight particular differences

The Status Index is formed by calculating the average of the

prehensive transition toward democracy and a market-based

between individual countries, call attention to trends in de velop-

total scores given for the dimensions of political and economic

economy. The Governance Index is formed by calculating the

ment,andmakefactorskeytoprogressmorereadilyidentifiable.

transformation. The state of transformation in each analytic

average of scores given for the governance criteria, which is

dimension is equivalent to the average of the scores of the

thenoffsetagainsttheassignedlevelofdifficulty.

associated criteria. Criterion scores are, in turn, based on the

For a more thorough analysis of a country’s strengths and weaknesses, please consult the BTI’s non-aggregated

average scores of the equally weighted indicators that com-

The high level of aggregation of individual scores and the use

individual scores as well as the country reports and regional

prise the criterion. Combining the two analytical dimensions

of rankings are primarily means of providing orientation and

analyses – all available online at www.bti-project.org.

5

GOVERNANCE PERFORMANCE

ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION

ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION

Constraints criterion

Levelofdifficulty Authority criteria

Democratization precondition criterion

Stateness Democratic core criteria

Political participation Rule of law Democratic consolidation criteria

Stability of democratic institutions Political and social integration The state of political transformation is measured in terms offivecriteria,whichinturnarederivedfromassess -

Inclusive and sustainable development criteria

Level of socioeconomic development Welfare regime Sustainability Economic order criteria

Organization of the market and competition Private property Economic policy and output criteria

Monetaryandfiscalstability Economic performance

ments made in response to 18 questions. Stateness, which is seen as a precondition to democracy, is included in the

6

Steering capability Resourceefficiency Inclusiveness criteria

Consensus building International cooperation TheGovernanceIndexiscomprisedofve fi criteria,whichare based on a total of 20 indicators. It focuses on how effectively policymakers facilitate and steer development and transformation processes. The BTI holds that successful governance must guarantee inclusive participation of all relevant interests, ideas and identities, and have the authority to

The state of economic transformation is measured in

facilitate agreement among stakeholders and implement joint

BTI’sdefinitionofpoliticaltransformationandexamined terms of seven criteria, which are based on a total of 14

decisions. Authority requires that governments are consistent

throughquestionsspecificallydealingwiththestate’s

indicators. The BTI explicitly puts elements of social

in pursuing their goals and use their resources wisely and

monopoly on the use of force and basic administrative

inclusion, such as social safety nets and equality of

effectively. Inclusion implies that decision-makers cultivate

structures. The BTI’s concept of democracy goes well

opportunity, as well as sustainability on an equal footing

the broadest possible consensus for their transformation goals

beyondotherdefinitionsofdemocracy,whicharelimited with market and competition criteria. In BTI terms,

and work reliably with external supporters and neighboring

primarily to basic civil rights and the conduct of free

comprehensive development not only aims at sustainable

states. Governance performance is weighted with the level of

elections. It also entails an evaluation of the rule of law,

growth, but also requires successful poverty alleviation

difficulty,whichisderivedfromthreequalitativeandthree

including the separation of powers and the prosecution

and the freedom of action and choice for as many citizens

quantitativeindicators.Itreflectstheobservationthateach

ofofficeabuse.TheBTIputsaspecialemphasisonthe

as possible. The BTI’s concept of a socially inclusive

country’squalityoftransformationisinfluencedbystructural

evaluation of democratic consolidation. It assesses the

market economy thus distinguishes itself from those that

constraints.Inthisway,difficultconditionsandthescarcity

quality of representation with regard to the party system

allow for socioeconomic intervention only if it conforms

of resources in a given country are factored in. The BTI is the

and interest groups, and also measures social capital and

with market rules and primarily accentuate the impor-

only index to analyze and compare governance performance

the approval of democratic norms and procedures.

tance of market organization and property rights.

in developing countries with self-collected data.

DEMOCRACIES AND AUTOCRACIES

MEASUREMENT AND REVIEW PROCESS

The Transformation Index is based on a qualitative expert survey in which written assessments are translated into numerical ratings and examined in a multistage review process so as to make them comparable both within and across regions. This method enables those factors of political and economic development that elude purely quantitative assessments to be captured in the experts’ qualitative appraisals. The resulting country assessments render the reasons behind each of the BTI’s 7,individual 421 scoresfullytransparentandverifiable.

qualitative indicators associated with each criterion.

The second expert reviews, comments on and adds to this country report. Independently of one another, the two country experts translate the assessment into a numerical rating on a scale of one (the lowest value) to 10 (the highest value), structured by four levels of score-based categories contained in the codebook.

In this way, countries are evaluated on the basis of whether and to what extent they comply with the specifiedratinglevelsandfulfilltheBTIcriteria.

Thesystemicclassificationofacountryasademocracy or an autocracy is not determined by the aggregate politicaltransformationscore,butbyspecificindicator scores. In accordance with the BTI’s comprehensive concept of democracy, seven threshold values marking minimum requirements are considered. The country is classifiedasanautocracyifevenonescorefallsshortof the relevant threshold.

Nevertheless, this type of qualitative expert survey will always contain a degree of subjectivity. The BTI survey process takes this into account during the preparation of reports and evaluations, as well as during the review of the data. It is designed to minimize subjective factors as far as possible throughout the process.

To ensure the validity, reliability and comparability of the assessment, each individual score undergoes a multistep process of review by the country experts, the regional coordinators, the project team and the BTI board.

Free and fair elections

Free elections are not held or are marked by serious irregularities and restrictions.

Effective power to govern

Democratically elected leaders de facto < 4 points lack the power to govern.

Association and

The freedom of association or

Political participation

assembly rights assembly does not exist, or civil society The scores and responses provided by the experts for organizations are suppressed. each of the 49 indicators are initially reviewed by regional Freedom of Freedom of expression or media A standardized codebook serves as the foundation coordinators, who examine the content to ensure it is expression freedom does not exist, or severe restrictions are in place. of the survey process, providing a single reference both complete and consistent. The regional coordinators, framework for the experts when answering the all political scientists with expertise in comparative Rule of law questions. The process of country assessment has studies, participate in each step of the report-creation Separation of Constitutional oversight of the both a qualitative and quantitative component, in each process and apply their regional expertise to ensure the powers executive, legislature or judiciary does not exist, or exists only on paper. case performed by two country experts. As a rule, high quality of the country reports. They subsequently one foreign and one local expert are involved in the perform an intraregional calibration of their countries’ Civil rights Civil rights are systematically violated evaluation process; this ensures that both external scores, and then they join with the project team to carry and internal perspectives are taken into account in the out an interregional score calibration for all 137 countries, Stateness course of assessment. In total, 272 experts from leading this time checking for across-the-board comparability and Monopoly on the The state has no control over large research institutions around the world contributed to viability. Finally, all scores are discussed once again by the use of force & Basic parts of the country and fails to fulfill administration basic civil functions. the production of the country reports for the BTI 2022.

BTI Board before being adopted. The BTI Board, a panel (average) of scholars and practitioners with long-term experience Thefirstexpertdraftsadetailedreportonthebasisofintheeld fi ofdevelopmentandtransformation,provides Failing states with a severely limited capacity to act are also the criteria outlined in the codebook, referencing the the project with ongoing support and advice. considered autocracies.

< 6 points

< 4 points

< 4 points

< 4 points

< 4 points

< 3 points

7

North America

Atlantic Ocean

North Pole

Europe RUSSIA ›

Africa

CHINA

IRAN ‫ایران‬

%H3

Indian Ocean

8

Ocean

‫ع‬

Ke e

pi

ng

t W he G on o ' Pa t Y ver 21 rtn ou nm

B No ers A e M ent 20 P r y on

o l Ci vil ace und Nei Tar 19 A F Soc for P the ghb get utu iety er Ta or?

18 re T su b Up rad asio le Str in itio n M 17 e Th t e O ngth ovin he A ns ' nly in 16 Nu on U ir Ga p m me Inte in T bers D rtw 15 ined esign own Fl Free I Putti The dom nstitut aws 14 ng D Lim ion to b emoc i s t e s ofPe racy S Thro opl ilent 13 ugh t e Po One N he Shred wer d ation 12 Monop Unde er oly on r Xi the Us Democr e of Fo acy Failin 10 rce g to Tak e Flight

22

CHINA

4

3

Table of Contents

66

69 71

70

68

32

23

29

24

28

FightingCorruptionisaHeav yLift

51 Marching into Pe ril A Table for One? 52 Cascad ingCoo People perati 53 onorCo P nfli ct?

Takin ower g their Wha 5 S 4 e ats t The 's in the B F r i o e r fcase ever 55 Und ?

Mo er the D Regime? r

ome 56 Ira e Ban

g A S nian for th 57 A P tate o Influe e Buc Fla auci f Fra nce k 58 Fly min ty of gmen onth g Po ta e i R ng Sol Out pular tion Mar ch 59 Po US Po o? w

Do iso SI er 6 0

P N nin A Vo owe ot P g th 61 te r o as e W fo f t s G r P he o ell 62 ut Pu in 63 …o lpit rP 64 ut in

65

Putting the Pieces in Place 50 Putting Education to Work 49 le Stuck in the Midd ns tio 48 mitedOp Li bjects ovable O ion s eets Imm 47 Force M Expres oppable ack on plePower hen Unst An Att o 46 W sofPe c Façade imit rati ne TheL emoc cs are O il 45 i he D a t J i l o o ath t e tly t nd P Bene on a o Direc d Slop 44 eligi ar G N w re R own Whe IRA nd 's D 43 ou acy Gr lag ocr ble the F lth Dem 42 sta a Un ed in We ade e on r ? p h 41 t cy ap o T ef cra Wr ding wo t e Be Eye mo a

e e T th n hy r D 40 Sp akes re's or a Fis ce T he e f 's en nt

It 38 W Ey ing flu me h An et ic In ern om m ov

S o G 37 on of

Ec ure 36 a's ct in tru

35 Ch e S th ng

pi ing 34 t ap M viga Na 33

31

30

25

26

27

72

73

74

75 76

77 d un o 78 n Gr t er ky n d e a 79 il y il W y Sh crac ne S e e l c o th ng mo l G 80 ien e na in asi ed rs cre in D Sig isob n 81 a n k o i o Be n In tem cy's of D ositi at p y c O Po cra ers t p u 82 i A emo ang or O sper erEd D e D om f Pro igh s 83 Th Ro from sofH wave No wer vel e Air 84 Po hLe ing th on my o Higntroll Missi gg n o 85 n Ec Co n on a Nest E ussia R

a e e g h r M din 86 we l t of t Bui esinPo e Hear es h

Profil itoring t Time Zon 87 ia s 's Rus Mon ndra and Putin in u n T 88 ctio Of r Proje ay Powe d Aw n a p 89 U Up, on the Drag

Slaying ce an D icate Doing a Del

s es

Acknowledgements About

Methodology Diagnosing Democratic Decline

CHINA

IRAN

%H3

‫ایران‬

A New Superpower Has Arrived

With Crisis Comes Opportunity

The Politics of Revanchism

Page 10

Page 38

Page 66

91 92

RUSSIA ›

9

10

Graphic Images

Autocrats and the Use of Power

CHINA %H3

A New Superpower Has Arrived

M

any describe China as a rising power, but that has steadily corralled the levers of influence to solidify his description is outdated. The country has already control over the ruling Chinese Communist Party. At the same taken its place alongside the United States as a time, he has eroded democracy in Hong Kong, shrugged off world leader with the capability and influence to shape criticism the of human rights abuses in Xinjiang province, and political, economic and security landscape in its neighborhood taken increasingly provocative measures towards Taiwan. and beyond. China flexes its military muscle to intimidate neighbors while trumpeting territorial claims in regional wa- This chapter offers a collection of visuals designed to illuters. It asserts economic dominance to coerce others around minate Beijing’s evolving 21st-century domestic and foreign theglobeintofinancialdependency. policy goals. Understanding them, and China’s tactics for achieving them, are key to crafting strategies to capitalize A domestic consolidation of power enables Beijing to project on the most constructive aspects of the country’s rise while its strength abroad. Over the past decade, President Xi Jinping mitigating those that undermine global stability.

11

CHIN A!

%H3

Democracy Failing to Take Flight China's ranking on the Democracy Index.

Hybrid regimes

106 106

109 109

2008

111 111

11 2 11 2 2010

113 113

113 113

113 113

2018

2014 2012

2020

2016

114 114 2022

RANKING DEMOCRACY INDEX

12

1 167

Most Democratic

(Norway)

Most Authoritarian

(North Korea)

Authoritarian regimes

%H3

Monopoly on the Use of Force

MONOPOLY ON USE OF FORCE 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

9

9

9

2008

2010

9

9

9

2022

2020

9

9

2018

2016

State monopoly challenged in territorial enclaves State monopoly limited to key parts of the country No state monopoly on use of force

2012

To what extent does the state’s monopoly on the use of force cover the entire territory of the country?

State monopoly on use of force

2014

CHIN A!

13

10

10

0 201

10

200 8

202 0

2 202

%H3

One Nation Under Xi To what extent are legal order and political institutions definedwithoutinterferencebyreligiousdogmas?

14

20

8

CHIN A!

12

2 01

10

10

20

10

16

2 01

10

4

10

INTERFERENCE OF RELIGIOUS DOGMA 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

The state is secular The state is largely secular Secular and religious norms are in conflict The state is theocratic

CHIN A!

%H3

Putting Democracy Through the Shredder To what extent are political representatives determined by general, free and fair elections?

2

2

1

2008

2010

2012

1

1

2014

2016

FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

1

1

2018

2020

1

2022

No constraints on free and fair elections Some constraints including registration, campaigning and media access exist Serious irregularities during voting process occur Elections are entirely unfree and unfair

15

CHIN A!

%H3

The Limits of People Power To what extent can individuals form and join independent political or civic groups?

To what extent can these groups operate and assemble freely?

2022 10

20

20

2

20

1 20

12 2 01 4

2 2

ASSEMBLY RIGHTS

16

Assembly rights are guaranteed Assembly rights are occasionally subject to interference or restrictions Assembly rights are often subject to interference or restrictions Assembly rights are denied

2

8

2 01 6

2

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

2

20

2008

2

2

CHIN A!

%H3

Freedom to be Silent To what extent can citizens, organizations and the mass media express opinions freely?

2

2 2

2

2 2 2014

2012

2 2010

2 2008

2016

2018

2020

2022

FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Freedom of expression is guaranteed Freedom of expression is occasionally subject to interference or restrictions Freedom of expression is often subject to interference or restrictions Freedom of expression is denied

17

CHIN A!

%H3

SEPARATION OF POWERS

Intertwined Institutions

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

U

TI

Separation of powers occasionally subject to interference Separation of powers is weak No separation of powers

VE

EX

E

C

To what extent is there a working separation of powers (checks and balances)?

Clear separation of powers

JU

D

IA

LEGISL AT

L

IV

IC

E

2

2016

1 20 18

1 2022

2008

20 10

12 20

2014

1

20 20

1 18

1

2

1

CHIN A!

%H3

Design Flaws

12

20

202 0

AN

0 201

8

11

200 8

2 202

201

11

11

W TA I

11

Are democratic institutions capable of performing?

20

201

16

11 PERFORMANCE OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS

4

11 11

11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Democratic institutions are effective and efficient Democratic institutions are often inefficient Democratic institutions are unstable and ineffective No democratic institutions exist

19

PARTY SYSTEM

CHIN A!

The Only Game in Town

Party system is stable and socially rooted

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Party system is fairly stable and socially rooted Party system is unstable with shallow roots

To what extent is there a stable and socially rooted party system able to articulate and aggregate societal interests?

No party system exists

10

10

9

8

20

3

2

2

1 2008

8

8

8

7

7

7

6

6

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

4

3

1

9

5

4

2

9

6

5

3

9

7

6

4

10

8

7

6

10

9

8

7

10

10

9

5

%H3

1 2010

2012

2014

2016

10

10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1 2018

1 2020

2022

CHIN A!

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Strength in Numbers

SOCIAL CAPITAL 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

To what extent have social self-organization and the construction of social capital advanced?

5 4

5

5

5

High level of trust among the population Fairly high level of trust among the population Fairly low level of trust among the population Very low level of trust among the population

5

4

3

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022 21

CHIN A!

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

22

%H3

Movin' on Up

GROSS NATIONAL INCOME RESCALED High income Upper middle income

The World Bank's method for classifying economies.

Lower middle income Low income

7

7

2008

2010

6

2012

5

2014

4

4

2016

2018

3

3

2020

2022

CHIN A!

%H3

UNITED NATIONS EDUCATION INDEX RESCALED

A Future Up in the Air 3

Does an educated population demand more from its government?

3

4

4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

3

2010

2012

Least educated

4

5

2008

Most educated

3

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022 23

CHIN A!

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Do We Have Any Volunteers?

To what extent are there traditions of civil society?

CIVIL SOCIETY TRADITIONS 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Traditions of civil society are very weak Traditions of civil society are fairly weak Traditions of civil society are fairly strong Traditions of civil society are very strong

9

2006 24

9

2008

9

2010

9

2012

9

2014

9 9 2016

2018

9

2020

CHIN A!

%H3

No Place for Persuasion

2

10

20

20

2

20

2

1

20

2 00 8

20 22

Can reformers exclude or co-opt anti-democratic actors?

12

2 01 4

2 01 6

1

20

18

1

1

2

10 9 8 7 ANTIDEMOCRATIC 65 ACTORS 4 3 2 1

Reformers successfully exclude or co-opt anti-democratic actors Reformers cannot completely control anti-democratic actors Reformers have little control over anti-democratic actors Reformers have no control over anti-democratic actors

25

CHIN A!

%H3

Partners Around the Table To what extent does the political leadership use the support of international partners to implement a long-term strategy of development?

7

7

2012

7

2014

7

2016

8

2018

8

2020

2010

8

2022

5

2008 EFFECTIVE USE OF SUPPORT 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

26

Well-focused use of international assistance for long-term strategy Use of international assistance without a long-term strategy Use of international assistance for short-term expediency Considers international assistance as undesired political interference

CHIN A!

%H3

Won't You Be My Neighbor?

To what extent is the political leadership willing and able to cooperate with neighboring countries?

REGIONAL COOPERATION

7

2008

8

2010

Government cooperates with neighbors Government cooperates selectively with neighbors Government is uncooperative with neighbors

2016

2014

2018

Government actively builds relationships with neighbors

6

7

5

8

2012

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

5

2020

5

2022

27

CHIN A!

5.0

%H3

2008

Keeping the Government on Target

7.7 2022

5.0 2010

The government manages reforms effectively and can achieve its policy priorities.

5.0 2020

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

5.0 2012

STEERING CAPABILITY 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Government implements its policies effectively Government fails to implement some of its policies

5.0 2018

5.0

Government fails to implement many of its policies Government fails to implement its policies

2014

5.0 28

2016

CHIN A!

%H3

Navigating the Structure of Government In the end, Chinese institutions report to one man.

Xi Jinping

Party Secretariat

Commissions and Departments

State

General Secretary

Party Central Military Commission

State Central Military Commission

President and Vice President

Politburo Standing Committee

Central Commission for Discipline Inspection

National Supervisory Commission

National People's Congress

Politburo

Supreme People's Court

Central Committee

Supreme People's Procurotorate

Chinese People's Political Consulative Conference

State Council Ministries and Commissions

National Party Congress

29

B

.9

B

B

Si

In

$ nga $2 3.6 po .6 B re

a

Th

$3 aila . n 70 3B d M $1

B

$ do $1 2.0 nes .9 B ia A $4 ustra $2 .4 li

B

$4 aysi a $5 .7B .9

M al

M

40

M

$1 yanm 5 a $6 0M r

M

70

B

pt

Eg y

$1 .8

$6

B

.8

$1 ige 0. ria $5 4B

N

B

.1

$5 Gh 00 ana $2 M

2B

La

0 M M

s

ne

pi

B

B

am

M

tn

Vi e

10

$6

$ ang $4 3.5 lad .2 B es h B

.8

$1

$1 Israe . l $1 8B .1 B

M

n

M

R

$1 uss $4 .2 ia 60 B hs ta

5B B

.8

$1

$1 .4

K az ak

n

st a

0M 00

$1

$4 6

ek i

U zb

B

$ kis $9 1.7 tan .0 B B

Pa

i

M al

B

$1 .5

$ os $1 2.1 .

B ili p

Ph

$ $1 27 00

0M

$6 Ira .4 n B $5 0

a k

n

a

B

Se

a in nt

$1 nega l $2 .3B .7

H

$2 unga .1B ry

U

$ nite $1 70 d S t .1 0 B M ate s

ia

il

$

iL 0M Sr 8 $8 3.7B

a

i ab Ar

a

pi io

Other transportation contracts

$

Infrastructure spending by amount and category ge B Ar .2 $5 2.1B

ab Ar d s te ate r

di

$

h B Et .9 $4 2.1B

Rail contracts

liv

Mapping China's Bo 0M B 0 2.3 $1 $

$

M az Br 80 M $6 200

ni

$

.7B $1 2B

an

. $1

d Su .5B $1 0B

a

ni

za B .6 B $1 $1.7

30

U mi B E .6 $1 1.8B

u Sa

. $4

n Ta

Za

ia

B .4 B $1 $2.6

rb Se

$2 mbi a $3 .3B .8

). 4 '7

CHIN A!

%H3

Something's Fishy The high cost of the Nobel Prize.

1 3 2 1

Norway award s Nobel Prize to huma n rights activist Liu Xia obo

2

Chinese cut off Norwegian sa lmon imports

3

Loss of $1.3 bil lion to Norway 2011-2 013

31

CHIN A!

%H3

An Eye for an Eye Retribution in the case of Huawei Chief FinancialOfficerMengWanzhou.

3 1

2 3

2

1

rests Canada ar Huawei Executive

32

n s Canadia China cut and soy pork, peas imports

xports Canada’s e ll by to China fe n in 2019 $3.5 billio

CHIN A!

%H3

Where's the Beef?

Economic retailiation for challenging Beijing's COVID-19 narratives.

1 3

2

1

Australia calls for COVID investigation

2

China sanction s Australian exp ort

3

s

Australia loses $3 billion in exports in 2 020

33

CHIN A!

United States $452.6B (17.5%)

Hong Kong $272.7B (10.5%)

%H3

It Takes Two to Trade

Japan $142.6B (5.5%)

China's 15 largest trading partners(figuresinUS$).

Vietnam $113.8B (4.4%) South Korea $112.5B (4.3%) Germany $86.8B

(3.4%)

The Netherlands $79B

(3%)

United Kingdom $72.6B India $66.7B

(2.8%)

(2.6%)

Taiwan $60.1B

(2.3%)

Singapore $57.5B

(2.2%)

Malaysia $56.4B

(2.2%)

Australia $53.5B

(2.1%)

Russia $50.6B

(2%)

Thailand $50.5B

34

(2%)

CHIN A!

%H3

Spreading the Wealth TrackingChineseinvestmentinAsia(figuresinUS$).

North Korea

$873M

South Korea

$239B

CHINA

Taiwan

$101B Myanmar

$34.1B

Vietnam

$161B

35

CHIN A!

%H3

Wrapped in the Flag There is clarity about the nation’s existence as a state with adequately established and differentiated power structures.

10.0 Taiwan

STATENESS 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

9.0

North Korea

All individuals and groups enjoy citizenship without discrimination Some groups are denied full citizenship rights Significant aspects of citizenship are withheld from certain groups Different groups compete for hegemony and deny citizenship to others

8.8

Vietnam

8.5 China

36

3.8

Myanmar

CHIN A!

%H3

Democracy on Unstable Ground Democratic institutions are capable of performing, and they are adequately accepted.

9.5 STABILITY OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Approval of democratic norms and procedures is high Approval of democratic norms and procedures is fairly high Approval of democratic norms and procedures is fairly low

2.5

Approval of democratic norms and procedures is very low

1.5

1 North Korea

2.5

Vietnam

Myanmar

China

Taiwan 37

38

Graphic Images

Autocrats and the Use of Power

IRAN ‫ایران‬

With Crisis Comes Opportunity

T

he security vacuum in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003 has are potentially lethal to the staying power of the Islamic Republic’s regional paved the way for Iran to expand its Middle East reach. Tehran has influence. The domestic political ramifications are also significant. Man increased assistance to regional allies and financed new Iranians militant view their country’s military interventions in Iraq and in Syria as groups that act as its surrogates. The 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, which saw ideologically driven wars of choice that are not critical to national security. anti-government protests and rebellions from Yemen to Syria to Tunisia, and Demonstrators at nationwide socio-economic protests that shook Iran in the subsequent, if short-lived, victories of the Islamic State have reinforced 2017 and 2018 expressed anger and frustration at, above all, the government’s Tehran’s desire to devote itself to using non-state militant actors to broaden prioritizing foreign ideological pursuits over people’s everyday needs. its authority. Iran’s religious leaders have considered the strategy to be the best way to defend the country’s external interests.

Such incidents highlight the ongoing gap between the Iranian public and Tehran’s ruling elite. Left unaddressed, this and other similar grievance Domestic critics of this proxy model, however, argue that it cannot sustain- could challenge the Islamic Republic’s political stability. This chapter ably project Iranian power. The policy may be inexpensive, at least relative examines such domestic drivers and their potential impact on Iranian to recent regional military campaigns, but its considerable indirect costs adventurism in the Middle East.

39

es m e gi m re so es) rid ith tur yb w a H ian ic fe ar at rit cr ho mo ut de (A

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

Democracy's Downward Slope

100 2008

112

The erosion of democratic institutions continues unabated.

2010

114

RANKING DEMOCRACY INDEX

2012

1 167

118

Most Democratic

(Norway)

Most Authoritarian

(North Korea)

2014

119 2016

118 126

n ria ita or th es Au gim re

2018

2020

127 2022

40

‫ایران‬

MONOPOLY ON USE OF FORCE

Go Directly to Jail

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

8

8

8

2008

2010

7

9

7

2022

2020

7

7

2018

2016

State monopoly challenged in territorial enclaves State monopoly limited to key parts of the country No state monopoly on use of force

2012

To what extent does the state’s monopoly on the use of force cover the entire territory of the country?

State monopoly on use of force

2014

IRA!N

41

Where Religion and Politics are One

1

1

‫ایران‬

IRA!N

1

2 202

0 201

202 0

To what extent are legal order and politicalinstitutionsdefinedwithout interference by religious dogmas?

8

20

12

2 01

20 INTERFERENCE OF RELIGIOUS DOGMA 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

1

16

2 01

4

1

The state is secular The state is largely secular Secular and religious norms are in conflict The state is theocratic

1 42

1

200 8

1

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

Beneath the Democratic Façade To what extent are political representatives determined by general, free and fair elections?

4

2008

5

2010

4

2012

3

3

2014

2016

FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

4

2018

4

2020

3

2022

No constraints on free and fair elections Some constraints including registration, campaigning and media access exist Serious irregularities during voting process occur Elections are entirely unfree and unfair

43

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

The Limits of People Power 4

10

20

20

20

12

20

4

2 01 4

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

44

Assembly rights are guaranteed Assembly rights are occasionally subject to interference or restrictions Assembly rights are often subject to interference or restrictions Assembly rights are denied

2

18

2 01 6

3 ASSEMBLY RIGHTS

2

20

2 00 8

2 02 2

To what extent can individuals form and join independent political or civic groups?

To what extent can these groups operate and assemble freely?

3 3

3

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

An Attack on Expression To what extent can citizens, organizations and the mass media express opinions freely?

4 2008

3 2010

2

2 1

2018

FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

2

1

2012 2014

2 2020

2022

2016

Freedom of expression is guaranteed Freedom of expression is occasionally subject to interference or restrictions Freedom of expression is often subject to interference or restrictions Freedom of expression is denied

45

‫ایران‬

IRA!N

When Unstoppable Force Meets Immovable Objects Are democratic institutions capable of performing?

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

PERFORMANCE OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS

46

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Democratic institutions are effective and efficient Democratic institutions are often inefficient Democratic institutions are unstable and ineffective No democratic institutions exist

IRA!N

PARTY SYSTEM

‫ایران‬

Limited Options To what extent is there a stable and socially rooted party system able to articulate and aggregate societal interests?

10

10

9

9

8

2008

2

1

3

2

1 2010

8

8

8

7

7

7

6

6

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

4

3

2

9

5

4

3

9

6

5

4

9

7

6

5

10

8

7

6

10

2012

2014

2016

Party system is unstable with shallow roots No party system exists

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1 2018

Party system is fairly stable and socially rooted

10

10

10

9

8

7

1

10

Party system is stable and socially rooted

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

2020

2022

47

IRA!N

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

‫ایران‬

Stuck in the Middle

GROSS NATIONAL INCOME RESCALED High income Upper middle income

Stagnant growth and its consequences for development.

Lower middle income Low income

4 5

4

4

5

5

5

6

2008

48

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

IRA!N

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5

2008

‫ایران‬

Putting Education to Work

UNITED NATIONS EDUCATION INDEX RESCALED Most educated

1

A young and educated workforce in search of opportunities.

Least educated

4

2010

4

2012

4

2014

3

2016

2

2018

2

2020

2022 49

IRA!N

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

‫ایران‬

Putting the Pieces in Place

POLICY COORDINATION Government coherently coordinates conflicting objectives Government tries to coordinate conflicting objectives

Towhatextentcanthegovernmentcoordinateconflictingobjectivesintoacoherentpolicy?

Government often fails to coordinate conflicting objectives Government fails to coordinate conflicting objectives

5

3

3

3

3

2

2008

50

2010

2012

2014

2

2016

2018

2

2020

2022

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

Fighting Corruption is a Heavy Lift

ANTI- CORRUPTION POLICY 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

To what extent does the government successfully contain corruption?

Government is successful at containing corruption Government is often successful at containing corruption Government is partly willing and able to contain corruption Government fails to contain corruption

3

3 2

3

2 1 1

2008

2012

2016

1 2018 2022

2010 2014

2020

51

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

Marching into Peril To what extent does the political leadership enable the participation of civil society in the political process?

3 2008

2

2010

2 2012

2

2

2016

2014

2

2018

2

2020

1 2022

CIVIL SOCIETY PARTICIPATION

52

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Political leadership actively enables civil society participation Political leadership permits civil society participation Political leadership neglects civil society participation Political leadership obstructs civil society participation

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

A Table for One? To what extent does the political leadership use the support of international partners to implement a long-term strategy of development?

1

1

2012

3

2016

1

3

2018

2

2020

2014

2010

1

1

2022

2008 EFFECTIVE USE OF SUPPORT 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Well-focused use of international assistance for long-term strategy Use of international assistance without a long-term strategy Use of international assistance for short-term expediency Considers international assistance as undesired political interference

53

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

CascadingCooperationorConflict?

To what extent is the political leadership willing and able to cooperate with neighboring countries?

1.0 Syria

5.3 Iran

3.6

Lebanon

5.6 Iraq

CONSENSUS-BUILDING 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

54

All major actors agree on consolidating democracy and market economy Major political actors agree on either consolidating democracy or market economy Major political actors conflict on consolidating democracy or market economy No major political actors want to establish a democracy or market economy

1.8

Yemen

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

People Power PublicconfidenceintheIraniangovernment.

80% 72% 69% 75% 75% 71% 55% 52% 47% 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2018

2019

2020

* 2017 data not available

55

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

Taking Their Seats Representation by political orientation in the Iranian parliament.

Conservatives/Hardliners

221

Reformists/Centrists

Seats

Seats

38

Seats

20 20 P

56

Independents

arlia

lts es u r n mentary electio

19

Syria 178 Yemen 176

Iran

149

18

0

Highly corrupt

Iraq 160

Russia 129

China 78

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

What's in the Briefcase?

Less corrupt

1

Iran and the scourge of corruption, Corruption Perception Index, 2020.

57

1410 (1989)

1411 (1990)

1412 (1991)

1413 (1992)

1414 (1993)

1415 (1994)

1416 (1995)

1417 (1996)

1419 (1998)

1420 (1999)

1421 (2000)

1422 (2001)

1423 (2002)

1424 (2003)

1425 (2004)

1426 (2005)

1427 (2006)

1428 (2007)

1429 (2008)

1430 (2009)

1431 (2010)

1434 (2012)

1435 (2013)

1436 (2014)

1437 (2015)

1438 (2016)

1442 (2020)

1443 (2021)

1444 (2022)

Rafsanjani

1418 (1997) Khatami

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

The Forever Regime?

Ahmadinejad

1432-33 (2011)

A timetable of theocratic rule (Hijri and Gregorian calendars).

Rouhani

1439 (2017)

1440 (2018)

1441 (2019)

Raisi Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran

58

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

Under the Dome A breakdown of religious groups in Iran (2011 census est.).

99.4% Muslim(official)

90%-95% Shia

0.3%

Other (includes Zoroastrian, Jewish, andChristian)

5-10% Sunni

59

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

More Bang for the Buck Iran'sinfluenceoperationsacrosstheMiddleEast(figuresinUS$).

Syria

$16 billion for Assad regime (2012-2020)

Lebanon

TEHRAN

$700 million for Hezbollah (per year)

Iraq Palestinian Territories

$100 million

Support for Shia millitants (exact figures unknown)

for Palestinian groups (per year)

Yemen Hundreds of millions of dollars since 2012 for Houthi aid (exact figures unknown)

60

‫ایران‬

IRA!N

IranianInfluence on the March

Ka

A ‫ ح ق‬sa'ib kat ‫ ل ال‬Ahl He ‫ أه‬al-H z ‫ ب اء‬bol ‫ب‬ ‫نج‬ lah ‫ ص ائ‬aq ‫ هللا ال‬al ‫ع‬ Ba ‫ زب‬Nuja dr ‫ ة ح‬ba Or gan ‫ح رك‬ i ‫ ب در‬zati on ‫ة‬

IranhasspreaditsinfluencethroughouttheMiddleEast Kata 'ib Say via its proxy militia model. Here is a snapshot of how ‫ داء‬yid this tactic has taken shape throughout the region. ‫ ش ه‬alLi ‫ د ال‬Shu wa ‫ س ي‬ha Za ‫ ب‬da in Li ‫ت ائ‬ e wa ‫ك‬ ‫ون‬ bi Fa ‫ی‬ y ‫ب‬ o ‫زي ن‬ t e ‫ون‬ ‫ واء‬un ‫ م ي‬mi ‫ل‬ yo ‫اط‬ ‫ف‬ He ‫ ء ال‬un ‫وا‬ z ‫ين‬

AlAs

hta

Sar aya a

l-M ‫ ت ار‬uk ‫مخ‬

h

‫ ش ل ل‬tar ‫جي‬

rB

ri

Pa le

‫ ش ت ر‬gad e ‫األ‬ ‫ راي ا‬s ‫س‬

‫سط‬

sti n

‫فل‬

‫في‬

ian

‫ م ي‬Isla ‫ س ال‬mi c ‫اإل‬ An ‫ ه اد‬Jih ‫ ال ج‬ad sar ‫رك ة‬ A ‫ح‬‎ ‫ ٰل َّل ه‬llah ‫ار ٱ‬ ‫َ ْ َص‬ ‫أن‬

Bahrain

Yemen

bo

Ha m

‫ س‬as ‫ما‬ ‫ح‬

Palestinian Territories

‫هللا‬

lla

‫ زب‬h ‫ح‬

Lebanon

ta ‫' هللا‬ib H ‫ زب‬ezbo ‫ ب ح‬llah ‫ت ائ‬ ‫ك‬

Ha ra

‫ظم‬

‫من‬

‫ل‬

Syria

Iraq 61

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

A State of Fragmentation There is clarity about the nation’s existence as a state with adequately established and differentiated power structures.

5.5

Lebanon

STATENESS 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

All individuals and groups enjoy citizenship without discrimination Some groups are denied full citizenship rights Significant aspects of citizenship are withheld from certain groups Different groups compete for hegemony and deny citizenship to others

5.3 Iran

4.5 Iraq

3.0 Syria

2.0 Yemen

62

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

A Paucity of Popular Power

5.3

The populace decides who rules, and it has other political freedoms.

POLITICAL PARTICIPATION

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

1.3

6.0

Democratically elected representatives have the power to govern Democratically elected representatives have considerable power to govern Democratically elected representatives have limited power to govern Political decision-makers are not elected

1.5

2.3

Lebanon Iraq

Iran Yemen

Syria

63

IRA!N

‫ایران‬

Flaming Out The government makes optimum use of available resources.

4.3 3.0

2.0

1.7

1.3

Yemen

Syria

Iran

Lebanon

Iraq 64

RESOURCE EFFICIENCY 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Government makes efficient use of all resources Government makes efficient use of most resources Government makes efficient use of some resources Government wastes all resources

IRA!N

7.0

‫ایران‬

Flying Solo?

4.7

Iraq

The political leadership is willing and able to cooperate with external supporters and organizations.

Lebanon

2.0

Yemen

1.3 Iran

1.3 Syria

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Well-focused use of international assistance for long-term strategy Use of international assistance without a long-term strategy Use of international assistance for short-term expediency Considers international assistance as undesired political interference

65

66

Graphic Images

Autocrats and the Use of Power

RUSSIA ›

The Politics of Revanchism

I

n 2005, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”.

He aimed three years later to reverse some of the Soviet empire’s loss by invading the Republic of Georgia. Annexing Crimea followed that misadventure, as did a subsequent prolonged standoff between Russian and Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine. The West pondered Moscow’s intentions.

While Putin waxed nostalgic about the Soviet era, his consolidation of domestic power is perhaps more reminiscent of the tsars who once occupied the Winter Palace. At the conclusion of his second presidential term in 2008, Putin maintained control by choosing a successor, Dmitry Medvedev, who promptly named him prime minister. Putin returned to the presidency four years later to steer his country through economic cri-

ses, orchestrate crackdowns on domestic human rights groups, poison and silenceoppositiongures, fi andevenimplicatedindowningapassenger airliner. By 2020, the on-and-off Russian president had the constitution amended to keep himself in power, potentially through 2036. Trading placeswithanotherseniorofficialwouldnolongerbenecessary.

As Putin extinguishes the few remaining embers of democracy at home, the Kremlin’s cyber forces and conventional military assets continue to seektoredefinethemapofpost-SovietEurasia.TheBalticcountriesand Poland have sounded the alarm, and the European Union and the United Statesstruggletond fi effectivetoolstofrustrateRussianrevanchism.This chapter illustrates the disturbing trendlines that have been the hallmarks of Putin’s Russia. Can the West still facilitate democratic reform and constructive engagement, or has the die already been cast?

67

RUSSI A!

›

Poisoning the Well Crackdowns on dissidents and independent organizations reduce space for democratic actors.

Flawed democracies

72 2008

69 73

2012

2010

83

86

68

2018

2016

2014

RANKING DEMOCRACY INDEX

81

Hybrid regimes (Authoritarian with some democratic features)

85 2020

1 167

Most Democratic

(Norway)

Most Authoritarian

(North Korea)

84 2022

›

Do Not Pass Go

MONOPOLY ON USE OF FORCE 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

2008

2010

8

7

7

9

2022

7

9

2020

9

9

2018

2016

State monopoly challenged in territorial enclaves State monopoly limited to key parts of the country No state monopoly on use of force

2012

To what extent does the state’s monopoly on the use of force cover the entire territory of the country?

State monopoly on use of force

2014

RUSSI A!

69

RUSSI A!

›

Power of the Pulpit

9

7

To what extent are legal order and politicalinstitutionsdefinedwithout interference by religious dogmas?

2 202

0 201

202 0

7

8

20

12

2 01

7

9

200 8

20

16

2 01

4

9

INTERFERENCE OF RELIGIOUS DOGMA 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

70

The state is secular The state is largely secular Secular and religious norms are in conflict The state is theocratic

7

9

RUSSI A!

›

Vote for Putin…or Putin To what extent are political representatives determined by general, free and fair elections?

6

2008

6

2010

6

2012

6

2014

FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

5

2016

4

2018

4

2020

4

2022

No constraints on free and fair elections Some constraints including registration, campaigning and media access exist Serious irregularities during voting process occur Elections are entirely unfree and unfair

71

RUSSI A!

›

Bears in the Wilderness 7

To what extent do democratically elected political representatives have the effective power to govern, or to what extent are there veto powers and political enclaves?

7

EFFECTIVE POWER TO GOVERN

6

2 2008 72

2010

2012

2014

3

2016

3

2018

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Democratically elected representatives have the power to govern Democratically elected representatives have considerable power to govern Democratically elected representatives have limited power to govern Political decision-makers are not elected

3

2020

3

2022

RUSSI A!

›

On Increasingly Shaky Ground

STABILITY OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS

Democratic institutions are capable of performing, and they are adequately accepted.

5.5

2010

Approval of democratic norms and procedures is high Approval of democratic norms and procedures is fairly high Approval of democratic norms and procedures is fairly low Approval of democratic norms and procedures is very low

5.5

5.0

2.5

2008

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

2012

2014

3.0

2.5

2016

2018

3.0

2020

3.0

2022 73

RUSSI A!

›

A Potemkin Democracy To what extent are democratic institutions accepted as legitimate by the relevant actors?

5

2008

COMMITMENT TO DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS

74

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

4

2010

All democratic institutions are accepted as legitimate Most democratic institutions are accepted as legitimate Only individual institutions are accepted as legitimate No democratic institutions exist

5

2012

2

2014

2

2016

3

3

3

2018

2020

2022

APPROVAL OF DEMOCRACY

µ

4

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 N.A.

(N.A.)

Authoritarian regime

RUSSI A!

›

(N.A.)

2 01

µ (N.A.)

6

201

2 01

8

How strong is the citizens’ approval of democratic norms and procedures?

2

Democracy's Signal Gone Silent

201

µ

Approval of democratic norms and procedures is fairly low

4 202 0

(N.A.)

Approval of democratic norms and procedures is fairly high

0 201

µ

200 8

2 202

Approval of democratic norms and procedures is high

4

4

µ (N.A.)

75

RUSSI A!

›

The Dangers of Disobedience To what extent are there traditions of civil society?

8

8

2008

8

2012

2010

7

2014

7

2016

6

2018

CIVIL SOCIETY TRADITIONS

76

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Traditions of civil society are very weak Traditions of civil society are fairly weak Traditions of civil society are fairly strong Traditions of civil society are very strong

6

2020

6

2022

RUSSI A!

›

No Room for Opposition

10 20

3

3

20

20

4

20

20 08

20 22

Can reformers exclude or co-opt anti-democratic actors?

12

2 01 4

2

2 01 6

2

20

18

3 2

3 10 9 8 7 ANTIDEMOCRATIC 65 ACTORS 4 3 2 1

Reformers successfully exclude or co-opt anti-democratic actors Reformers cannot completely control anti-democratic actors Reformers have little control over anti-democratic actors Reformers have no control over anti-democratic actors

77

RUSSI A!

›

Power from Prosperity

GROSS NATIONAL INCOME RESCALED

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income

1

Can Putin retain a monopoly on power without growing the economy?

2

2

3

2 3

4 5

2008 78

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

RUSSI A!

›

High Levels of Higher Education What will an educated population demand?

1

1

1

1

1

1

2 UNITED NATIONS EDUCATION INDEX RESCALED

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Most educated

Least educated

2022 79

RUSSI A!

›

TNIK

Controlling the Airwaves N

D

SPU

The reach of Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik.

RT

30

A

Languages

100 Countries

80

270M

Annualbudget(inEuros)

RUSSI A!

›

Men on a Mission Russia'sInternetResearchAgencyprojectingitsinfluence.

1

2

11

12

21

51

61

71

72

54

63

73

35

44

53

62

25

34

43

52

15

24

33

42

5

14

23

32

41

4

13

22

31

3

64

74

45

55

65

75

6

7

16

8

17

26

9

18

27

36

19

28

37

46

56

66

76

10

20

29

30

38

47

39

48

57

40

49

58

67

59

68

77

50

60

69

78

70

79

80

80 Staff / US$ 1 Million per Month 81

82

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RUSSI A! ›

Building a Nest Egg Economic development in post-Soviet Eurasia.

Integral parts of the Eurasian Economic Union (figures in US$)

RUSSI A!

›

ProfilesinPower Russian leadership since 1999.

Vladimir Putin

Dmitry Medvedev

Vladimir Putin

1999-2008

2008-2012

2012-

83

RUSSI A!

›

Monitoring the Heart of the Russian Economy

GDP Growth annual ( )%

$1,459T $1,391T

10%

5.4% $1,197T

4.7%

1.4%

$1,416T

$1,298T

Will Russia's economic strategy put the country on life support?

$1,197T

GDP constant ( 5US$ 1 02 )

-3.0%

2.8%

$987,822B

-2.0%

-3.0%

-5.3% -8.7%

$858,786B

-7.8%

-12.6% -14.5% 1990 84

1992

$666,808B 1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

RUSSI A!

+11

›

Of Tundra and Time Zones Unique challenges governing the largest country on Earth.

+10 +9

:KMSM Ocean

+8 +7

North America

+6 Russia Asia

Atlantic Ocean

+4

Moscow

+3

Europe

+0

+5

+1

+2 85

RUSSI A!

›

Power Projection in Putin's Russia Influencingeventsinthepost- Sovietspaceandbeyond.

Belarus Current basing agreement

Moldova (Transnistria)

MOSCOW

Conventional peacekeeping

Ukraine (Crimea, Donetsk) Covert insurgent support

Georgia (Abkhazia) Conventional peacekeeping

Libya Indirect insurgent support

Syria Egypt

Current basing agreement

Conventional regime support

Armenia Conventional peacekeeping

Georgia (South Osetia) Conventional peacekeeping

Kazakhztan Current basing agreement

Azerbaijan (NagornoKarabakh)

Kyrgyzstan Current basing agreement

Conventional peacekeeping

Tajikistan Central African Republic Indirect regime support

Current basing agreement

Sudan Current basing agreement

Eritrea Potential basing agreement

Countries with a Russian presence by mission type 86

RUSSI A!

›

$79.0B

Up, Up and Away

$60.8B

Military spending in Russia (figuresinUS$).

$49.2B

2012

$63.8B 2013

$68.4B 2014

$73.7B

2016

2015

$63.7B 2017

$61.4B

$64.1B 2019

2018

$52.5B 2011

2010

87

RUSSI A!

›

RULE OF LAW

Slaying the Dragon State powers check and balance one another and ensure civil rights.

6.3 Ukraine

6.3 Georgia

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Clear separation of powers Separation of powers occasionally subject to interference Separation of powers is weak No separation of powers

6.0 Armenia

4.0 Belarus

4.0 Russia

88

RUSSI A!

›

Doing a Delicate Dance The political leadership establishes a broad consensus on reform with other actors in society without sacrificingitsreformgoals.

CONSENSUS-BUILDING 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

3.6 Belarus

4.4

All major actors agree on consolidating democracy and market economy Major political actors agree on either consolidating democracy or market economy Major political actors conflict on consolidating democracy or market economy No major political actors want to establish a democracy or market economy

Russia

5.6

Ukraine

6.8

6.4

Georgia

Armenia 89

Graphic Images

Additional Credits and Sources

CHINA Partners Around the Table

Chapter Intro

Marching into Peril

Chapter Intro

Controlling the Airwaves

Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com Freevectormap.com

Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

Democracy's Downward Slope

A Table for One?

Poisoning the Well

Carnegieeurope.eu Shutterstock.com Naturalearthdata.com

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com Freevectormap.com

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Men on a Mission

Cascading Cooperation orConflict?

Do Not Pass Go

Building a Nest Egg

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Eaeunion.org Shutterstock.com

Power of the Pulpit

ProfilesinPower

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com Freevectormap.com

Britannica.com Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

Vote for Putin…or Putin

Monitoring the Heart of the Russian Economy

BTI, 2022

Monopoly on the Use of Force

One Nation Under Xi

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

BTI, 2022

TheLimitsof People Power BTI, 2022.

Freedom to be Silent BTI, 2022

Intertwined Institutions BTI, 2022 Wikipedia.org

Design Flaws BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

The Only Game in Town BTI, 2022 Thenounproject.com

Art Direction and Graphic Design

Strength in Numbers

Mateo L. Zúñiga

Movin' on Up

Illustrations

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

BTI, 2022.

A Future Up in the Air BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Civil Society Traditions BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

No Place for Persuasion www.puntoaparte.com.co

90

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Keeping the Government on Target

Putting Democracy Through the Shredder

Chromagraphics, Inc.

Won't You Be My Neighbor?

BTI, 2022 Shuterstock.com

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com Freevectormap.com

Print

RUSSIA

Chapter Intro

Democracy Failing to Take Flight

Guillermo Torres Dylan Quintero Michael Ramirez

IRAN

BTI, 2022

Navigating the Structure of Government Uschina.org Shutterstock.com Thenounproject.com

Mapping China's EconomicInfluence Chinapower.csis.org Thenounproject.com

Something's Fishy Foreignpolicy.com Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

An Eye for an Eye Foreignpolicy.com Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

Where's the Beef?

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Go Directly to Jail BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Where Religion and Politics are One BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com Freevectormap.com

People Power

Beneath the Democratic Façade

Iranprimer.usip.org Wikipedia.org

What's in the Briefcase?

Transparency.org

BTI, 2022

Indexmundi.com

An Attack on Expression BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

When Unstoppable Force Meets Immovable Objects BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

LimitedOptions

It Takes Two to Trade

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

Chinapower.csis.org Shutterstock.com Naturalearthdata.com

Wrapped in the Flag

Stuck in the Middle

Putting Education to Work BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Putting the Pieces in Place

BTI, 2022 Wikipedia.org

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Democracy on Unstable Ground

Fighting Corruption isaHeavyLift

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Taking their Seats

TheLimitsof People Power

BTI, 2022 Thenounproject.com

Spreading the Wealth

News.gallup.com

BTI, 2022

Bloomberg.com Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

Worldstopexports.com

BTI, 2022 Thenounproject.com Naturalearthdata.com

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The Forever Regime?

Under the Dome Indexmundi.com Shutterstock.com

More Bang for the Buck Wilsoncenter.org Thenounproject.com

IranianInfluence on the March

BTI, 2022

Bears in the Wilderness BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

On Increasingly Shaky Ground

Newlinesinstitute.org Thenounproject.com Naturalearthdata.com

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Democracy's Signal Gone Silent BTI, 2022 Thenounproject.com

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Flaming Out BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

Flying Solo?

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Naturalearthdata.com

A Potemkin Democracy

A State of Fragmentation

BTI, 2022 Wikipedia.org

Of Tundra and Time Zones Power Projection in Putin's Russia

The Dangers of Disobedience

A Paucity of Popular Power

Data.worldbank.org} Shutterstock.com

BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Wilsoncenter.org Wikipedia.org

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Carnegieeurope.eu

No Room for Opposition BTI, 2022

Power from Prosperity BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com Wikipedia.org

HighLevelsof Higher Education BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Up, Up and Away Sipri.org Shutterstock.com

Slaying the Dragon BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Doing a Delicate Dance BTI, 2022 Shutterstock.com

Acknowledgements Five years ago, the Bertelsmann Foundation created the Disrupting Democracy series to uncover the factors that have eroded democracy worldwide over the past decade. We have since covered 16 country case studiesincludingprint,animation,documentarylms fi andinfographics.In thisnal fi installmentoftheseries,wetakeanin-depthlookintotheinfluence of regional powers on their neighborhoods, for better or for worse.

Throughout the series the secret to our success has been the data. In this edition, we were privileged to work with our distinguished colleagues from the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Bertelsmann Transformation Index team, who provided the lion’s share of the data points upon which the infographics were built. Thanks to the hard work and ingenuity of Hauke Hartmann, Sabine Donner, Sabine Steinkamp, Claudia Härterich and Hannah Kickert, we could examine country case studies and regions to uncover nuggets of information that provide deeper insight than conventional wisdom often allows.

Once we had the data in hand, we turned our attention to bringing the numbers to life. That task was led by the Bertelsmann Foundation’s AnthonySilberfeldand.PuntoaparteEditores’MateoZúñiga,whofigured out how to tell complex geopolitical stories through visuals that incorporate art, analysis and even some humor.

I also express sincere gratitude to my other Bertelsmann Foundation colleagues for their contributions: Brandon Bohrn, Nathan Crist, Chesney Garnos,SamuelGeorge,FaithGray,ChloeLaird,SaraLeming,MeganLong and Daniela Medina. In our boutique think tank, every team member plays an important role in ensuring our projects’ successes.

Irene Braam Executive Director Bertelsmann Foundation, February 2022 91

About the Bertelsmann Foundation

About the Bertelsmann Transformation Index

The Bertelsmann Foundation (North America), Inc.,

Since 2006, the Bertelsmann Stiftung's Transformation Index

established in 2008, was created to promote and strengthen

(BTI) has regularly analyzed and evaluated the quality of democ-

the transatlantic relationship. Through research, analysis,

racy, market economy and governance in currently 137 developing

forums, and audio and multimedia content, we seek to

and transition countries. The assessment is based on over 5,000

educate and engage a transatlantic audience on the most

pages of detailed country reports produced in cooperation with

pressing economic, political, and social challenges facing

close to 300 experts from leading universities and think tanks

the United States and Europe. We are the U.S. arm of the

in more than 120 countries. The BTI is the only cross-national

Germany-based Bertelsmann Stiftung.

comparative index that uses self-collected data to measure the quality of governance and provide a comprehensive analysis of countries’ policymaking success during transformation processes.

As such, it is one of the prime sources to assess development and transformation in international comparison, integral part of the Worldwide Governance Indicators, the Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International) and the Ibrahim Index of African Governance and used by policymakers as well as civil society activists around the world to broaden and substantiate the discourse on reform and democratization.

Datasets, visualizations as well as country, regional and global analyses are available at www.bti-project.org.

The BTI is a project of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, one of Germany’s largest private, nonpartisan foundations. Founded in 1977 by Reinhard Mohn, the Bertelsmann Stiftung is committed to ensuring that everyone can participate in society – politically, economically and culturally.

About the Creators

Anthony Silberfeld is the Director

MateoL.ZuñigaistheArt

of Transatlantic Relations at the

Director at Puntoaparte

Bertelsmann Foundation, and

Editors in Bogotá, Colombia.

leads our research and multime-

He has been the lead designer

dia initiatives at the intersection

on multiple Bertelsmann

of technology and democracy. To

Foundation publications

date, Tony has published three

including The No Collar Economy

volumes in the Disrupting De-

and Our Digital World.

mocracy series, and has produced a wide range of documentary filmsandanimatedshorts that tell the story of political transformation in a volatile world.

Graphic Images AUTOCRATS AND THE USE OF POWER Disrupting Democracy Volume IV

1108 16th Street, NW 1st Floor Washington, DC 20036 www.bfna.org