Report: Economic uncertainty abounds, but state in relatively good position

With financial experts awaiting news of the Federal Reserve's next steps to combat inflation, California's economic future remains in a state of uncertainty, but regardless of what decisions are made at the national level, the impact will be "milder" in the state than the nation as a whole, according to a UCLA forecast released Wednesday.

In a "soft-landing" scenario in which the nation avoids a recession, "California grows, and in fact continues to grow faster than the U.S., led by more construction,

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During the interim, Braun underwent emergency surgery and was hospitalized for 10 days, the motion states.

According to recent updates from Braun's medical team, the defense lawyer will be unable to further participate in the Chan case, that he faces an "indeterminate but significant" period of further medical treatments and convalescence, and that his eventual return to the practice of law -- albeit in a gradual, or perhaps, even an ample rainy-day fund for state government, increased demand for defense goods and increased demand for labor-saving equipment and software," Jerry Nickelsburg, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, wrote in his California economic report.

Nickelsburg predicted that under such a scenario, the state's unemployment average for 2023 will be 4%, followed by 3.9% next year and 3.6% in 2025.

But if a recession emerges, the state's economy will decline, "but by less than the U.S."

By City News Service

"In this scenario the unemployment rates for 2023, 2024 and 2025 are expected to be 4.3%, 4.8% and 3.7%, respectively," Nickelsburg wrote. "Non-farm payroll jobs are expected to grow at 1.1%, -1.2% and 1.9% rates during the same three years."

In the nonrecession scenario, mortgage interest rates will rise, but "the continued demand for a limited housing stock coupled with the enactment of laws permitting ADUs (accessory dwelling units) to be built in single-family house zoned neighborhoods throughout the state leads to a forecast of increased homebuilding through 2025," he wrote. He predicted that permit numbers would grow to 150,000 in 2025.

In a recession, however, he predicted 92,000 net new units being permitted this year, growing to 152,000 in 2025.

"In the coming months, the Federal Reserve will reach that fork in the road between continued aggressive tightening and moderation, and it must decide which path to take," Nickelsburg wrote. "The good news is that unlike

Public corruption

limited capacity -- will be at least three months down the line, if not longer, the filing says.

A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney's Office said prosecutors would respond in writing in a court filing.

Chan is facing a dozen criminal counts, including racketeering conspiracy, bribery, honest services fraud and lying to federal agents for his alleged role in a complex pay-to-play scheme that prosecutors say soaked developers for millions of dollars in exchange for getting their building projects approved at City Hall.

Walter initially placed the trial on hold until March 27 while Braun recovers from the undisclosed illness.

The 80-year-old Braun is one of the city's best known criminal defense attorneys. His clients have included Roman Polanski, Roseanne Barr, John Landis, Gary Busey, Chris Farley and others.

Chan, 66, of Monterey Park, is accused of being a key member of what pros- ecutors dubbed the Council District 14 enterprise, a conspiracy in which former Los Angeles City Councilman José Huizar -- assisted by others -- unlawfully used his office to give favorable treatment to real estate developers who financed and facilitated bribes and other illicit benefits.

Huizar pleaded guilty in January in Los Angeles federal court to felony charges for using his powerful position at City Hall to enrich himself and his associates, and for the past four slowdowns in economic growth we expect a milder impact on California's economy from whichever path the Federal Reserve decides to take."

On the national front, the Anderson Forecast stresses that the nation is "not currently in a recession, and if any recession does occur, it will only begin toward the end of 2023, with the important caveat that the U.S. economy might avoid a recession altogether throughout our forecast horizon," which extends through 2025.

"While the economy has so far remained resilient to higher interest rates outside of some moderate softening in construction, that resiliency is what might lead to the recession scenario path," according to the report. "The more consumers continue to spend despite higher prices and higher interest rates, the more gradually demand-induced inflation will come down, and the more the Federal Reserve might be expected to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation. The 'might' here could well be mitigated by falling commodity prices and new rental lease contracts." cheating on his taxes. He faces multiple years behind bars at sentencing on April 3.

A deputy mayor who oversaw economic development for ex-Mayor Eric Garcetti in 2016 and 2017, Chan is charged with allegedly arranging indirect bribe payments to city officials by lining up employment contracts for the officials' relatives.

During his opening statement, Braun said his client was an innocent public servant who got swept up in the case by overly ambitious federal prosecutors. He promised that Chan would take the stand to refute all allegations.

Chan worked for the city for almost three dozen years, serving at one point as the top executive overseeing the Department of Building and Safety, which reviews building plans and inspects construction projects.

Before Huizar signed his plea deal, he and Chan were scheduled to go on trial together.