Delphi Energy Future 2040 - Results Report

DELPHI ENERGY FUTURE 2040 Delphi-study on the future of energy systems in Germany, Europe and the world by the year 2040

4

DELPHI ENERGY FUTURE 2040 Results report The final study report will be available shortly on our website: www.delphi-energy-future.com/results

2

MISSION STATEMENT The Delphi Energy Future study aims to examine how ­energy systems will change in Germany, Europe and around the world by the year 2040. The goal is to break down the national parameters that currently shape the debate on adapting or redesigning energy systems, particularly in Germany, and to venture a comprehensive look at the energy systems of the future from a global standpoint.

What challenges are energy systems likely to face in the future? How can we design strategic solutions for problems that will only emerge as we progress through the next three decades? How can we anticipate what we do not know today? Where will be the new centres of economic growth, and how do today’s stakeholders and decision-makers see energy systems developing?

The many studies on this topic have not provided us with satisfying answers: sectoral analyses have tended to view individual industries, states or resources in isolation.

In our Delphi Energy Future study, we have set ourselves the target of taking a comprehensive view, identifying common ground and examining interdependencies. At the same time, our study is an invitation to formulate visionary approaches and bold ideas, and to think outside the box. We wish to offer food for thoughts and inspiration to visualise the future of the complex energy system as it might take shape tomorrow.

The core question posed in the Delphi Energy Future study is therefore: What future awaits the energy system in Germany, Europe and the world in the year 2040 and beyond?

This forward-looking project is a joint endeavour of the German Association of Energy and Water Industries e.V. (Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft – BDEW), the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH and PricewaterhouseCoopers AG (PwC).

THE METHOD: WHAT IS A DELPHI STUDY? A Delphi study is an expert survey that is conducted in two or more “survey rounds”. It combines the advantages of anonymous surveys (enabling candid responses) with the benefits of having an interactive discussion (analysing relationships and interdependencies). Thanks to their distinctive approach to structuring their questionnaires, Delphi studies provide more wide-ranging answers than traditional surveys whilst delivering less ambiguous results.

We launched the interactive phase of the project in late 2014 using a classic Delphi approach by conducting indepth interviews of up to several hours with 80 recognised international experts from the energy sector and related industries (electrical engineering, mechanical and plant engineering, energy research etc.) but also with specialists in the fields of politics, science and culture, urban development and the environment, international geopolitics, civil society organisations and associations.

On the basis of the projections made by the experts, we derived pointed theses, for example about the global structure of energy generation in 2040. The theses were then submitted to a panel of 350 international experts, who evaluated them from various perspectives in a written survey. For each thesis, the participants were asked to rate the development described in terms of its likelihood, timescale and regional impact.

The results of the first survey round, completed in ­November 2015, have been made available one more time to the same group of experts to provide a feedback on their initial evaluation. During this second round of the survey the experts were asked to confirm and comment or revise their opinion on those theses where their assessment varied from majority opinion. The updated and condensed results obtained through this process provided the baseline for the development of various mini-scenarios or potential “development paths” and trends in the period towards 2040 and beyond. The study report will include these development paths which mirror the interpretations of the results by BDEW, GIZ and PwC. In addition, all data concerning the assessment of the theses by the experts will be published, allowing readers to draw their own conclusions.

3

THE RESULTS: HOW TO READ THE EVALUATION CHARTS Our Delphi study comprises a total of 56 theses, each of which describes one aspect of a possible energy future. The first sentence of each thesis contains the key statement, the participants of the survey were asked to assess, with some theses also describing additional aspects to reinforce or clarify the point raised. The most interesting results obtained for each thesis are provided in a one-page summary.

For most theses, the experts were first asked to indicate how likely they thought it was that the future scenario in question would actually take place.

If the respondents believed that the development was “likely” or “certain” to happen, they were then also asked when they would expect this to take place – before 2025, by 2040 or after 2040 – or where they thought this would take place, i.e. which region of the world would be affected. For this type of question the participants were allowed to indicate more than one region.

The survey also included a second type of question typically used in Delphi studies where opposing trends are described by way of presenting a thesis and a corresponding antithesis. In this case the experts were asked to indicate which of the two trends they would consider more likely to take place.

4

THESIS 1

By 2040 developing countries and emerging economies will have abandoned subsidies for fossil energy sources and nuclear power in view of the significant strain on national budgets.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

8%

2%

55%

35%

impossible

certain

55%

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

15

by 2040

58

not until after 2040

27

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

71

60

58

54 47

40

47 33

24

20 9

0

36

7

4

certain

6

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

0

2

1

0

impossible

5

THESIS 2

By 2040 many governments will have notably scaled down their ecological targets as a result of a series of economic crises: climate protection will be of secondary importance, with growth and employment issues being the first priority.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

2%

9%

42%

47%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80 60

47

Russia + CIS

ASEAN-Pacific

China

27

20

Middle East

29

40

33

Sub-Saharan Africa

40

North Africa

41

36

Central and South America

0

29

North America

20

30

Europe

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

71

60 52

49

40

42

39

20 0

45 38

18 3

2

1

9

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

7

12 6

impossible

6

THESIS 3

A: By 2040 the prices of fossil energy sources will be at a low level following a prolonged period of oversupply.

VERSUS

B: By 2040 the prices of fossil energy sources will have risen ­drastically in response to increasing scarcity.

WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B

4%

36%

certain thesis A

29%

likely thesis A

27%

neither of them

4%

likely thesis B

certain thesis B

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 60 40

41 41 31

34

20 0

31

35 27

29

31 30 21

6

6

3

18 0

0

certain thesis A

likely thesis A

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

neither of them

likely thesis B

3

6

certain thesis B

6

7

THESIS 4

A: By 2040 the “shale gas revolution” will have become a global ­phenomenon; countries like China, Argentina, Algeria or South Africa will have become major producers alongside the USA. VERSUS

B: By 2040 the fracking boom, which started in the USA, will already be over and will have had only a minor impact on the development of worldwide energy systems.

WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B

6%

41%

certain thesis A

17%

likely thesis A

29%

neither of them

7%

likely thesis B

certain thesis B

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 60 50

40 28

20 0

41

36 25

24

19 6

7

6

11

6

certain thesis A

likely thesis A

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

38 30 23

19

13

neither of them

6

likely thesis B

2

11

certain thesis B

8

THESIS 5

A: By 2040 worldwide economic growth and increased mobility will have caused global energy demand to double compared to 2015.

VERSUS

B: By 2040 global efforts to improve energy efficiency will have stopped the rise in energy consumption.

WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B

13%

47%

certain thesis A

14%

likely thesis A

24%

neither of them

2%

likely thesis B

certain thesis B

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 60

59

40

38

41 35 26

20

20 9

0

57

18

16

9

certain thesis A

16

13 14

19 0

6

likely thesis A

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

neither of them

likely thesis B

2

1

certain thesis B

0

9

THESIS 6

By 2040 a series of humanitarian crises caused by ­ecological factors, such as the flooding of entire coastal areas and the ­resettlement of millions of refugees, will have led to the ­emergence of radical political movements throughout the world.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

4%

4%

55%

37%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80 60

46 35

35 19

Sub-Saharan Africa

Russia + CIS

China

23

43

41

North Africa

29

ASEAN-Pacific

North America

0

24

20

Europe

20

Central and South America

35

Middle East

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

67

60 49

40

42

48

46

28

20 0

71

3

2

3

24

6

certain

6

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

3

3

0

impossible

10

THESIS 7

By 2040 the largest CO2-emitting countries will have taken­­decisive action to change course as a result of a series of ­ecological ­disasters; sustainable energy systems will have been promoted, economic and energy policies will primarily be aimed at fighting climate change.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

10%

1%

impossible

certain

27%

63%

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80

70

69

64

60

40

42

36

19

17

North Africa

15

Sub-Saharan Africa

19

Middle East

China

ASEAN-Pacific

North America

Europe

0

Central and South America

28

20

Russia + CIS

60

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

72

70

60

57 47

40

35

30 24

20

18

20

12

0

6

6

certain

0

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

1

1

0

impossible

11

THESIS 8

By 2040 the growing middle classes in emerging economies such as China and India will have forced their countries’ governments to adopt sustainable energy policies. Policymakers’ top priority will be to fight environmental pollution, a rising share of growing ­energy demand will be met from renewable energy sources.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

17%

0%

61%

23%

impossible

certain

55%

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

24

by 2040

51

not until after 2040

25

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

67

60

59

64

47

40

41

26

20

18

15 15 14

0

22 12 0

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

0

0

0

impossible

12

THESIS 9

By 2040 economic profitability, investors‘ interests and independence from imports will be the key considerations driving the trend to build sustainable energy supply systems.

Climate protection will no longer be the primary driver and rationale behind this development and will only be of secondary importance.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

5%

1%

52%

42%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

31

by 2040

58

not until after 2040

11

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

70

60 52

40

56

39

38

24

20 0

49

47

3

8

3

3

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

1

1

0

impossible

13

THESIS 10

By 2040 women, who will have gained a significantly higher influence on strategic decision-making processes in the ­energy industry and in the field of energy policy, will have pushed the promotion of sustainable energy use and ensured a closer involvement of a wide range of social stakeholders.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

4%

4%

48%

44%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80 60

59

53

54

11

12

17

Sub-Saharan Africa

14

North Africa

20

Russia + CIS

20

China

22

ASEAN-Pacific

North America

Europe

0

Central and South America

27

20

Middle East

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

64

60 40

42 42

47

52 46

31

20 0

27

20 3

4

3

certain

3

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

8

1

7

impossible

14

THESIS 11

By 2040 a global climate regime with binding and ambitious targets for the reduction of carbon emissions will be in place.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

9%

6%

49%

36%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

17

by 2040

56

not until after 2040

27

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

65

60 45 45 46

40

36

39

24

20 9

0

41

8

9

12

certain

9

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

6

7

0

impossible

15

THESIS 12

By 2040 an effective regional system for the pricing of carbon emissions (e.g. emissions trading or a carbon tax) will be in operation.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

19%

1%

65%

15%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 100

88

80

73

71

53 38

10

7

Sub-Saharan Africa

13

North Africa

16

Middle East

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

North America

Europe

0

32

27

20

Russia + CIS

40

China

60

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

75 69

60 55

50

40 35

20 0

25

20

25 10 11

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

16

unlikely

0

0

3

0

impossible

16

THESIS 13

By 2040 energy supply activities will have been nationalised given that energy security and sovereignty will be the key goals underlying national energy policies; as a result of this, states will also be engaged in energy trading.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

3%

16%

23%

58%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80 60 40

15

14

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Africa

22

Middle East

28

21

Russia + CIS

China

18

ASEAN-Pacific

27

20

Central and South America

26

North America

0

33

30

Europe

20

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

62 55

59 53

40 24 25

20 0

18 6

3

3

21

18

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

19 18 11

unlikely

impossible

17

THESIS 14

By 2040 new multilateral governance structures will have been created to facilitate the cross-border integration of energy systems and joint infrastructure investments.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

16%

1%

67%

16%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80

81

60 56 41

40 26

21

Sub-Saharan Africa

23

North Africa

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

North America

Europe

0

28

27

Middle East

30

20

Russia + CIS

52

China

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

74 64

60

71 59

40 20

24

24 11

0

22

16

certain

12

6

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

15

unlikely

0

1

3

0

impossible

18

THESIS 15

By 2040 energy generation, power grids and energy trading ­activities will be organised supraregionally based on shared resources (e.g. wind power in northern Europe) without regard to state borders; national systems and monopolies will no longer exist.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

11%

4%

58%

27%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80

74

60 50

46

18

13

Sub-Saharan Africa

14

North Africa

19

16

Middle East

19

Russia + CIS

ASEAN-Pacific

North America

Europe

0

25

China

26

20

Central and South America

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

76

60

63

61 53

40 32 25

20 14

0

6

10

20

18

6

certain

6

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

1

9

0

impossible

19

THESIS 16

By 2040 Europe will have adopted a common foreign energy policy, including joint strategic infrastructure investments and collective supply deals with third countries for the supply of resources.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

11%

1%

61%

27%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

25

by 2040

62

not until after 2040

13

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

71

70

60

56

59

40 31

20 15

0

33

18 12

9

12

certain

12

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

3

1

0

0

impossible

20

THESIS 17

A: By 2040 Europe will have adopted common, harmonised domestic energy policies and achieved an effective internal energy market; a highly efficient super grid will connect the European countries.

VERSUS

B: By 2040 the European countries will have re-nationalised their ­energy policies, with borders being closed off by means of phase-shifting transformers.

WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B

17%

60%

certain thesis A

13%

likely thesis A

9%

neither of them

1%

likely thesis B

certain thesis B

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 69

60

57

61

65

40 20 0

16

21 13

18

13 14 13 6

certain thesis A

likely thesis A

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

neither of them

3

8

10

12

likely thesis B

0

0

3

certain thesis B

0

21

THESIS 18

By 2040 states that have strongly promoted renewable energy sources will have improved their economic position enormously and will be dominating the list of most competitive economies.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

17%

1%

57%

25%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80

66

12

12

10

Sub-Saharan Africa

10

North Africa

ASEAN-Pacific

North America

Europe

0

26

25

18

Middle East

20

52

Russia + CIS

52

40

China

64

Central and South America

60

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

69

60

62 51

40

47

32

29

20 0

19

17

23 24

14

certain

9

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

3

unlikely

0

0

0

impossible

22

THESIS 19

A: By 2040 a growing world population and rising levels of wealth will have intensified the rivalry for finite energy resources; outbursts of violent conflicts within individual countries and between different nations will be an increasingly frequent occurrence.

VERSUS

B: By 2040 improvements in energy efficiency and more sustainable supply systems will act as counterbalancing factors mitigating or preventing the scarcity of resources, which is why there will be no large conflicts despite a sharp increase in global energy demand

WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B

4%

28%

certain thesis A

18%

likely thesis A

47%

neither of them

3%

likely thesis B

certain thesis B

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 60 53 44

40 28

20 0

0

5

4

31

27

24

19

46

43

24 14

18 9

6

certain thesis A

likely thesis A

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

neither of them

likely thesis B

3

1

certain thesis B

0

23

THESIS 20

By 2040 the falling demand for fossil energy sources in ­industrialised and emerging countries will have led to a ­destabilisation of producing countries.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

3%

3%

57%

37%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80 60

47

40 31 5

Middle East

11

Central Asia

0

9

Central and South America

20

Russia

55%

Africa

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

61 55

59 53

40

43 36 27

20 9

0

41

1

3

3

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

1

3

0

impossible

24

THESIS 21

By 2040 important resources (silver, copper, rare earth elements) will be in greater demand and will have become increasingly ­scarce as a result of a worldwide promotion of renewable energy sources and expansion of electricity networks. Many industrialised countries and emerging economies will be competing for strategic commodity partnerships with resourcerich countries.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

10%

1%

55%

33%

impossible

certain

55%

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

27

by 2040

55

not until after 2040

18

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

52

54

59

40

56

39 31

25

20

19

14

0

34

6

3

7

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

1

0

0

impossible

25

THESIS 22

By 2040 Russia will have become much less important as a supplier of natural gas and oil for Europe compared to 2015.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

13%

2%

60%

25%

impossible

certain

55%

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

24

by 2040

60

not until after 2040

16

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

64

60

58

59

40

41 35

20

21

18 10

0

33 23

18 3

7

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

3

0

6

impossible

26

THESIS 23

By 2040 the generation and supply of energy will have been decentralised and made more flexible, which will have led to the emergence of structures that are more resilient to crises and acts of terrorism.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

14%

2%

56%

28%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 70 62

59

40

40 21

18

Sub-Saharan Africa

17

North Africa

16

Middle East

26

Russia + CIS

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

North America

Europe

0

28

27

20

China

60

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

64

60 53

47

45

40

30

20

24 18

15

0

35 28 28

6

certain

0

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

4

1

0

impossible

27

THESIS 24

By 2040 consumers will expect businesses, products and ­services to be sustainable on a comprehensive scale. Non-­ sustainable forms of production will be considered unethical.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

17%

1%

61%

21%

impossible

certain

55%

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

30

by 2040

52

not until after 2040

17

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

67

60

59 60 47

40 35

20 0

25 16 16

14

22

17 18 0

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

1

1

0

impossible

28

THESIS 25

By 2040 energy consumption will have risen significantly as ­private households will have stepped up their use of convenience solutions (mobility, increased automation of homes, heating etc.).

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

8%

2%

40%

50%

impossible

certain

55%

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

31

by 2040

61

not until after 2040

8

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

47

40

39

37

52 44

55

50 41

20 0

6

7

11

3

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

1

0

0

impossible

29

THESIS 26

By 2040 changing values in society will have turned the “sharing economy” into a reality; the new paradigms will be ecological efficiency, consumer restraint (sufficiency) and the dematerialisation of production.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

4%

6%

46%

44%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 54

50

19

15

10

8

12

Sub-Saharan Africa

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

North America

Europe

0

25

North Africa

22

16

Russia + CIS

20

Middle East

43

China

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN 80

74 60

59

40

31

20

6 0

18

3

certain non-German experts German experts

likely

unlikely

2

7

impossible

30

THESIS 27

By 2040 highly efficient “sustainable cities” will have emerged, with populations that have sharply reduced their individual ­mobility needs and that satisfy their energy demand by acting as prosumers in smart microgrid systems (“neighbourhood ­generation”).

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

10%

1%

55%

33%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60

60

56

49

40

11

10

Sub-Saharan Africa

18

Middle East

China

14

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

North America

Europe

0

25

21

Russia + CIS

20

North Africa

38 30

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN 80

73 60

20 0

47

45

40

17

6

certain non-German experts German experts

9 likely

unlikely

0

2

impossible

31

THESIS 28

By 2040 the population’s migration into the city will have been ­stopped, with decentralised energy systems offering new ­perspectives for the development of rural areas.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

3%

6%

32%

59%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 40 29

24

20 12

Sub-Saharan Africa

Russia + CIS

15

China

ASEAN-Pacific

21

North Africa

23

Central and South America

22

Middle East

34

North America

0

27

25

Europe

20

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

56

40

38 30

34

61

57

53

29

20 0

0

2

4

6

certain

6

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

7

4

12

impossible

32

THESIS 29

By 2040 distributed generation with renewable energies using battery storage will have led to the emergence of new democratic self-governance structures at the local level. Municipalities and social bottom-up movements will have gained momentum.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

12%

3%

60%

25%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80

57

57 46 25 9

17

14

Sub-Saharan Africa

9

North Africa

24

Middle East

ASEAN-Pacific

North America

Europe

0

25

21

Russia + CIS

20

China

40

Central and South America

60

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

63 64

60 53

53

40 20 0

28 16

18

29 23 23

10 11

certain

3

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

4

1

0

impossible

33

THESIS 30

By 2040 large parts of the population will have fallen into energy poverty and lost out on the benefits of the energy transition as a result of rising prices of fossil energy sources, high costs of renewable energy generation and expensive efficiency technologies.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

0%

17%

19%

63%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60

14

9

20

15

Sub-Saharan Africa

22

North Africa

19

Middle East

13

Russia + CIS

15

China

20

ASEAN-Pacific

25

North America

0

25

Europe

20

Central and South America

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

65

60

70 71

50

40 25

20 0

18 0

0

0

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

24 18 10

6

0

certain

25

20

unlikely

impossible

34

THESIS 31

By 2040 bioenergy technologies relying on renewable resources will have failed to succeed due to land rivalry with the food ­industry, a lack of acceptance by the population and economic disadvantages.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

5%

3%

57%

35%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 49 28

25

30

30

Russia + CIS

China

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

Europe

0

North America

16

19

23

23

Sub-Saharan Africa

34

20

North Africa

42

Middle East

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

59

62

59

59

40 29

20 9

0

6

3

31

34

25

6

certain

6

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

1

4

6

impossible

35

THESIS 32

By 2040 the carbon emissions that have been generated in ­manufacturing and transporting products and services – i­ncluding mobility – will be a standard information indicated on product ­labels.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

20%

0%

63%

16%

impossible

certain

55%

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

45

by 2040

48

not until after 2040

8

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

69

60

59

61 47

40 20

28

24

29

24 14

0

13

15 16 0

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

0

1

0

impossible

36

THESIS 33

By 2040 an “all electric society” will have become a reality. ­Electricity, especially power generated from renewable sources, will also provide mobility and heating, and will have displaced ­petroleum and natural gas in many industrial processes.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

13%

2%

62%

23%

impossible

certain

55%

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

7

by 2040

55

not until after 2040

38

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

71 64

60

58

63

40 29

20 15

0

18

17 7

21

24

3

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

3

1

0

impossible

37

THESIS 34

By 2040 battery storage facilities providing frequency control ­services will have taken over the role of conventional power ­stations in maintaining system stability.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

11%

2%

57%

30%

impossible

certain

55%

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

13

by 2040

57

not until after 2040

30

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

73

60

57

56 49

40

40

25

20 9

0

38

13

18 11

6

certain

0

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

5

0

0

impossible

38

THESIS 35

By 2040 renewable energy sources operating in conjunction with storage units will be the generation technology with the lowest electricity production costs. High-performance customer generation facilities will be sold in retail stores and can be installed in a matter of minutes.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

23%

2%

55%

20%

impossible

certain

55%

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

24

by 2040

58

not until after 2040

18

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

61 47

40 20 0

59 59

24

26 19

24

24 15

20

18 0

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

3

1

0

impossible

39

THESIS 36

By 2040 thanks to new battery technologies, electric vehicles will be able to travel distances of more than 3,000km per charging ­cycle and will be rechargeable within a time span of no more than a few minutes by means of electrical induction.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

9%

10%

44%

37%

impossible

certain

55%

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

7

before 2025 by 2040

61

not until after 2040

32

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

50

40

42 41

20 0

47 38 39

36

41

16 6

6

14 6

certain

6

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

7

6

impossible

40

THESIS 37

By 2040 thin-film and organic photovoltaics technologies will be the “game changers” driving a decentralisation of energy generation; power-generating windows and facades will be conquering the market.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

13%

2%

70%

14%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

20

by 2040

59

not until after 2040

22

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

79 67

60

76

64

40 24

20

18 9

0

10

18

15 9

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

0

3

1

0

impossible

41

THESIS 38

By 2040 the energy supply system will be structured in a ­cellular way: interconnected cells and “islands” of the size of a city or ­medium-sized region will generate their energy from solar ­power, wind power, storage units and a minor share of conventional ­reserves.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

10%

1%

65%

24%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60

66

65

56

21

21

20

Sub-Saharan Africa

Russia + CIS

China

17

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

North America

Europe

0

29

23

India

20

41

North Africa

33

Middle East

40

Germany

8%

HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN 80

77

60

59

40

27

20

13 0

18

5

certain German experts non-German experts

1 likely

unlikely

0

impossible

42

THESIS 39

By 2040 the field of conventional fossil-fired power generation will also operate on a reversed scale: formerly large power ­stations will have become small and flexible units, with a typical generation capacity of no more than 100MW.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

4%

51%

36%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 54

50

29

24

27

24

Russia + CIS

China

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

North America

0

Europe

16

19

16

17

Sub-Saharan Africa

20

North Africa

42

Middle East

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

52

54

45

40

50

50 42 32

35

20 12

0

10 4

0

certain

0

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

5

7

0

impossible

43

THESIS 40

By 2040 carbon capture and storage systems will have been able to reconcile the goals of climate protection with the use of ­fossil energy sources. New applications for stored CO2 are being ­developed in the field of carbon chemistry.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

2%

7%

41%

50%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60

41

34

10

7

6

Sub-Saharan Africa

13

North Africa

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

North America

Europe

0

21

17

11

Middle East

20

Russia + CIS

39

33

China

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

71

60

36

45

40

20 0

52 51

48

40

18 3

0

4

9

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

9

3

6

impossible

44

THESIS 41

By 2040 nuclear fusion will have made its breakthrough and will be providing the baseload in industrialised and emerging ­countries.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

1%

21%

16%

61%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 40

11

10

9

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

ASEAN-Pacific

18

17

Russia + CIS

Central and South America

21

India

14

China

11

Middle East

30

North America

0

30 21

Europe

20

Germany

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

62

56 47

40

38 28

20

16 16 9

0

66

0

0

0

certain

likely

Business and associations Civil Society / NGO

15 6

Science Public sector

22

19

unlikely

impossible

45

THESIS 42

By 2040 the operation of hydropower plants and thermal ­power stations with high cooling requirements will be limited due to ­increasing water scarcity.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

7%

4%

50%

40%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60 40

41 32

34

30

25

34

30

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Africa

Middle East

Russia + CIS

China

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

17

North America

0

35

23

Europe

20

38

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

53

40

49

39

45 39

24

20

47

42

24

15

0

3

0

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

5

3

6

impossible

46

THESIS 43

By 2040 the following game-changing technology will have fundamentally transformed energy systems:

TOP 5 GAME CHANGER

44%

Storage technology

24%

Renewable energies, especiall photovoltaics

11%

Information and communication technology

6%

Decentralised energy supply

5%

Electric mobility

47

THESIS 44

A: By 2040 Germany will have become the world’s leading country in the management of energy systems largely built on renewable energy sources, and will be the largest exporter of energy technology.

VERSUS

B: By 2040 any hopes that the German energy transition might be successfully exported around the world will have been shattered; the supposed “model” will be considered a rather unattractive option given its high level of complexity, rising subsidies and acceptance issues.

WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B

7%

28%

44%

certain thesis A

likely thesis A

17%

neither of them

4%

likely thesis B

certain thesis B

HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN – A/B 80 60 40

43

44 26

20 0

7

32

9

8

certain thesis A

21

likely thesis A

German experts non-German experts

neither of them

likely thesis B

3

8

certain thesis B

48

THESIS 45

A: By 2040 the African countries will have achieved independence from international commodity markets thanks to a promotion of decentralised forms of renewable energy generation, and will be developing new energy systems themselves (frugal innovation).

VERSUS

B: By 2040 the high investment costs of renewable energy projects, a lack of investors and insufficient levels of qualification will have prevented Africa from “leapfrogging”. Its energy mix will be dominated by fossil sources of energy.

WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B

5%

39%

certain thesis A

25%

likely thesis A

29%

neither of them

2%

likely thesis B

certain thesis B

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sektoren A/B 80 60

56

40

39 32

37

20 13

0

35 27

29

25

16 4

3

29 30 19 3

0

certain thesis A

likely thesis A

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

neither of them

likely thesis B

2

1

certain thesis B

0

49

THESIS 46

By 2040 China will have become the world’s largest developer of sustainable energy technologies and the leading innovator in this field.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

8%

1%

65%

26%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

32

by 2040

55

not until after 2040

13

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN 80

67

60

61

40

27

20

5 0

24

14

certain German experts non-German experts

1 likely

unlikely

1

impossible

50

THESIS 47

By 2040 the unit price of electricity will have become of secondary importance in view of the low marginal costs of renewable energy generation, which will be dominating the market.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

23%

1%

47%

29%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80

61

61 49

17

17

18

Sub-Saharan Africa

Russia + CIS

14

North Africa

22

Middle East

32

India

ASEAN-Pacific

North America

Europe

0

26

24

20

China

40

Central and South America

60

Germany

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

58

40

41

47

46 35

20 0

25

27

34 27

16

23

12 0

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

0

3

6

impossible

51

THESIS 48

By 2040 consumers will pay flat rate fees for electricity which ­depend on their average consumption and individual supply security needs and requirements.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

10%

5%

49%

36%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80 60

16

15

10

9

Sub-Saharan Africa

15

North Africa

21

Middle East

19

Russia + CIS

17

China

Europe

0

North America

20

ASEAN-Pacific

45

Central and South America

53

52

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

63

47

40

52 51 38 31

20 0

16

11

9

33

31

0

certain

0

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

4

9

6

impossible

52

THESIS 49

By 2040 one consequence of the expansion of intermittent renewable energy generation will be that uninterrupted availability of electricity will no longer be a standard service offered by energy companies but will have become an extra service to be purchased separately by the customer.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

7%

9%

44%

40%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80 60

49

48

China

Central and South America

North America

Europe

0

16

14

12

13

13

Sub-Saharan Africa

19

14

North Africa

17

ASEAN-Pacific

20

Middle East

40

Russia + CIS

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

47

40

53

50

49

41 31

29

34

20

18 9

0

9

6

9

0

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

9

4

impossible

53

THESIS 50

By 2040 only a few technical functions, such as operation of the networks, will remain within the sphere of responsibility of ­traditional energy companies, while electricity will be generated by many small producers and network management will have become the domain of international IT companies.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

7%

2%

impossible

certain

31%

60%

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80 60

55

54

11

10

8

11

Sub-Saharan Africa

17

North Africa

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

North America

Europe

0

18

Middle East

22

15

China

20

Russia + CIS

45

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

62 61 55

53

40

41 34

20 0

7

5 10

30

28

3

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

3

0

0

impossible

54

THESIS 51

By 2040 major internet companies and the data and IT industry will have become the largest energy players given their capability to process large data volumes and their ability to manage supply and demand on an automated basis.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

8%

2%

52%

38%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

23

by 2040

58

not until after 2040

18

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80 60

63 49

54 47

40

41 35

34

34

20 0

3

7

10

12

certain

0

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

2

1

6

impossible

55

THESIS 52

By 2040 the “internet of things” will have come to also coordinate power generation and consumption; all electrical appliances will autonomously report their energy demand online and respond to supply and price movements.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

8%

17%

1%

59%

23%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

BY WHEN WILL THE THESIS TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

before 2025

16

by 2040

66

not until after 2040

19

20

0

40

60

80

HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN 80

66

60

55 40 20

15 0

28

22

12

certain German experts non-German experts

likely

unlikely

2

0

impossible

56

THESIS 53

A: By 2040 criminal data breaches and cyberterrorism will cause power outages and system shocks all over the world.

VERSUS

B: By 2040 security gaps allowing a misuse of energy data will have been closed.

WHICH OF THE TWO THESES (A, B) WILL TAKE PLACE? Zustimmung A/B

7%

36%

certain thesis A

35%

likely thesis A

19%

neither of them

3%

likely thesis B

certain thesis B

HOW DO GERMAN AND NON-GERMAN EXPERTS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %) Sprache DE/EN – A/B 80 60 40

39 29

20 5

0

36

31 18

23

10

certain thesis A

1

likely thesis A

German experts non-German experts

neither of them

likely thesis B

6

certain thesis B

57

THESIS 54

By 2040 the power market will be characterised by a high level of disintegration, load profiled customers and real-time pricing; smart meters and appliances will enable users to optimise their consumption.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

29%

0%

impossible

certain

9%

62%

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80

68

15

19 11

9

Sub-Saharan Africa

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

North America

Europe

0

22

20

North Africa

20

39

Middle East

34

Russia + CIS

40

India

75

72

China

60

Germany

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 100

94

80 60

64 57

52

40 20 0

36 27

32

12

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

8 10 0

unlikely

0

1

0

0

impossible

58

THESIS 55

By 2040 energy will be traded in fully automated trading systems based on complex algorithms, just like any other exchange-traded product.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

19%

2%

60%

19%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %) Region 80 60

65 57

61

40

7

6

Sub-Saharan Africa

16

North Africa

20

Middle East

20

Russia + CIS

China

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

North America

21

Europe

0

32

India

30

20

Germany

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

66

60

57

55

50

40 20 0

43

27

25 18 19

13 13 7

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

3

3

0

0

impossible

59

THESIS 56

By 2040 the trend to decentralise energy systems will have ­resulted in a situation where the majority of energy investment projects are no longer funded by large investors but rather by small crowd- and community-based funds or micro-financing initiatives.

WILL THIS THESIS ACTUALLY TAKE PLACE?

5%

2%

45%

47%

impossible

certain

unlikely

likely

WHERE WILL THE DEVELOPMENT TAKE PLACE? (IN %)

Region 80 60

39 26

23

24

27

Russia + CIS

China

ASEAN-Pacific

Central and South America

Europe

0

North America

14

10

19

15

Sub-Saharan Africa

20

North Africa

45

42

Middle East

40

Germany

55%

India

8%

HOW DO EXPERTS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS EVALUATE THIS DEVELOPMENT? (IN %)

Sektoren 80

69

60 50

40

47

45

47

45

25

20 0

44

3

3

9

3

6

certain

likely

Science Business and associations Public sector Civil Society / NGO

unlikely

3

1

0

impossible

60

GERMAN ASSOCIATION OF ENERGY AND WATER INDUSTRIES (BDEW) The German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), Berlin, represents over 1,800 companies. The range of members stretches from local and communal through regional and up to national and international businesses. It represents around 90 percent of the electricity production, over 60 percent of local and district heating supply, 90 percent of natural gas as well as 80 percent of drinking water extraction as well as around a third of wastewater disposal in Germany.

DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR INTERNATIONALE ZUSAMMEN­ARBEIT (GIZ) GIZ is a German federal enterprise offering its clients workable, sustainable and effective solutions in political, economic and social change processes. GIZ works primarily on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), but also for other federal ministries and public and private sector clients inside and outside Germany.

These include governments of other countries, the European Union and the United Nations. GIZ operates in more than 130 countries worldwide. The energy sector, especially the promotion of renewable energies, energy efficiency and energy policy strategy processes, is a key area of GIZ‘s work.

61

PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AG WPG (PWC) PwC helps organisations and individuals create the value they’re looking for. We’re a network of firms in 157 countries with more than 184,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax and advisory services. Tell us what matters to you and find out more by visiting us at www.pwc.com.

PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity.

Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.

PUBLISHER: German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) Deutsche Gesellschaft f端r Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH PricewaterhouseCoopers AG WPG (PwC) CONTACT

Delphi Energy Future Programme Office T: +49 (0) 30-33 84 24-186 E: info@delphi-energy-future.com I: www.delphi-energy-future.com

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