A fair go: mining communities negotiating a 'just transition'

Kieren Moffat PhD, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Voconiq

Australia’s mining industry is at a crossroads. Long a cornerstone of the nation’s economic prosperity - contributing over $2.1 trillion in export revenue and supporting 21% of economic growth in the past decade - it now faces new challenges and opportunities as the world transitions toward a sustainable, low-carbon future. This dual role of maintaining economic significance while addressing climate imperatives has elevated the importance of community trust, environmental stewardship, and equitable practices. The people living and working in Central Queensland find themselves at the centre of this transition.

The CSIRO Australian Attitudes Towards Mining 2024 survey, conducted with Voconiq, provides some important new information to support reasoned and productive discussion about how this transition is being conducted. The 2024 survey of almost 6,500 Australians is the third in the program of research, with the first being conducted in 2014 and the second in 2017. The study tracks key measures of community sentiment over time and this year’s work included a focus on transition minerals and renewable energy.

For the people of Central Queensland, it must feel as though they are playing the ‘hero’ and the ‘villain’ in the same school play. A globally significant producer of high-quality coal, a production and processing hub for gas and one of the epicentres for the development of renewable energy generation projects and the infrastructure to move those electrons to the grid. The story of the renewable transition is of course more nuanced than a pantomime but what is absolutely without shade is the sheer volume of development occurring in that part of the country.

But let’s start with mining. The CSIRO report shows that the position of mining in Australia has not been stronger in the last ten years than it is right now. 71% of Australians recognise mining’s role in supporting the future prosperity of the country and 71% agree that it is integral to the Australian way of life. In addition, 78% of Australians agree that mining provides employment and training opportunities for young people and 80% agree that it provides opportunities for regional employment and training. On all these measures, Australians are significantly more positive now than they were in 2017 or 2014.

Australians also trust the mining industry to act responsibly and accept the industry’s activities more in 2024 than they did six or 10 years ago – significantly more. These two measures are particularly important as they reflect the health of the industry’s social licence to operate in this country. The real question that follows is why? What has changed in the minds and experiences of citizens that has caused this shift? Using some fancy statistical modelling, we can determine exactly that.

The mining industry is seen to be more responsive to community concerns than it was in 2017. Australians are more confident that they and the country get a fair share of the benefits created by the mining industry, and that governments are doing a better job ensuring mining companies do the right thing. What hasn’t changed a whole lot are community ratings of environmental impacts caused by mining (high) or the importance they place on rehabilitating old mine sites (also high).

And while overall scores have improved on key drivers of trust and acceptance, these scores were even more positive among participants who knew at least one person who worked in the mining industry. This difference was much greater than the difference between, say, those that live in metropolitan areas and those that live in regional locations.

So, Australians consider mining to be important to our national prosperity, for creating opportunities in regional communities, and that the industry is acting in more responsive, responsible ways on the whole. If we turn now to the role that the mining industry is seen to play in the renewable transition, the story gets more interesting still.

The global push for renewable energy is creating unprecedented demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel— minerals that Australia is uniquely positioned to supply. Australia leads the world in lithium production (52% of global supply) and holds significant reserves of other critical minerals, with over 80 major projects representing $42 billion in investments and 115,100 jobs predicted by 2040. Most of this projected new transition mineral mining will likely take place on Indigenous Peoples' Lands.

72% of Australians agreed that increased mining will be necessary to meet the transition needs and 66% believed regulation should be streamlined or simplified to make the transition to renewable energy faster. And while 64% of participants agreed that mining is necessary to achieve a net-zero future, 61% of Australians expressed concerns about its associated environmental impacts. More than that, 32% of Australians indicated that Australia should reduce mining activity “even if it means taking longer to reach net zero emissions targets”.

While the majority of participants (46%) disagreed with this last statement, that sizeable minority sums up the tension that Australia needs to navigate; (in general) we see the importance of mining to the country now, we understand the opportunity the renewable transition presents for the future Australian mining industry, but we have deep reservations that this can be done in an environmentally responsible way. And it’s not just the environment that Australians are concerned about.

And that brings us right back to Central Queensland. We asked Australians about the people and places for whom the transition represents the potential loss of opportunity, livelihoods and all the other benefits Australians believe the mining industry delivers for regional communities. 60% of Australians indicated they are concerned about the impact the transition will have on people who hold jobs in fossil fuel-related industries (only 16% indicated they were not concerned), and 64% of Australians agreed that “it is important to protect the jobs of workers in fossil fuel-related industries (15% disagreed).

To reinforce the point further, an extraordinarily high proportion of participants (75%) agreed that in the transition away from fossil fuels, it is important to ensure affected industries and communities have enough time to adapt (e.g., through creating new job opportunities and providing education and training). But when we asked Australians whether they felt workers in these industries were receiving enough support to find alternative career pathways, just 40% agreed with this statement. A further 38% selected a neutral score on this measure, indicating they’re just not sure if this is the case or not.

To reinforce the point further, an extraordinarily high proportion of participants (75%) agreed that in the transition away from fossil fuels, it is important to ensure affected industries and communities have enough time to adapt (e.g., through creating new job opportunities and providing education and training). But when we asked Australians whether they felt workers in these industries were receiving enough support to find alternative career pathways, just 40% agreed with this statement. A further 38% selected a neutral score on this measure, indicating they’re just not sure if this is the case or not.

The story may be nuanced but this data is clear. Australians support the need to transition to renewable energy sources and the opportunity this represents for the Australian mining industry. They also have reservations about the environmental cost this may have. And alongside a deep concern that communities impacted by the transition are supported appropriately, they are not convinced that this support is adequate or forthcoming.

And this is what is meant by a ‘just transition’ in those global meetings and speeches we see on the news; that the race to renewables (in part) doesn’t neglect the interests of those that have and do underpin our current energy security, deliver enormous wealth to our country and build communities that have raised generations of productive Australians. Our nation owes these regions, these people, more than that, and the rest of the country agrees.

The Australian Government also agrees, with the Net Zero Economy Agency and the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations leading efforts to support workers, families, employers and communities to navigate these waters safely. State governments are likewise engaged in the challenge.

Something I think about a lot is the way that communities watch how others are treated by companies, organisations and institutions as a way of understanding more about who they are, their values and how they themselves may be treated in similar circumstances. In fact, in the latest CSIRO mining survey results, we see something similar. A new driver of trust in the mining industry emerged in this year’s analysis: local community agency to hold mining companies accountable.

The more that Australians are confident local mining communities can influence how mining companies operate and defend their interests together, the more they trust the mining industry overall. This is important because it shows how companies, in this case, treat individuals and communities locally affects the social licence of the industry at the national level. The data from the survey also shows that Australians are concerned about how well mining communities impacted by the transition are supported.

These communities are not on their own, and it would seem that Australians are watching how all of the various stakeholders and actors involved in the energy transition are working to ensure ‘just’ reflects that great Australian value: a fair go.

Read more about the CSIRO mining attitudes research or explore the data yourself using a public-facing dashboard: search ‘CSIRO Mining Survey’. 

1 Minerals Council of Australia. (2024). Annual Report 2023. Retrieved from [https://minerals.org. au/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/MCA-AnnualReport_2023.pdf](https://minerals.org.au/wp-content/ uploads/2024/06/MCA-Annual-Report_2023.pdf)

2 Moffat, K., McCrea, R., Pitcaithly, A., Unger, I., Bailey, C., Boughen, N., Parr., J. (2024). Australian attitudes toward mining: Citizen survey – 2024 Results. CSIRO, Australia. [EP2024-4783]

3 (Geoscience Australia. (2024, March 5). Critical minerals at Geoscience Australia. https://www.ga.gov.au/ scientific-topics/minerals/critical-minerals)

4 Commonwealth of Australia. (2023). Critical Minerals Strategy 2023-2030. Retrieved from https://www. industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-06/criticalminerals-strategy-2023-2030.pdf

5 Owen, J.R., Kemp, D., Lechner, A.M. et al. Energy transition minerals and their intersection with landconnected peoples. Nat Sustain (2022). https://doi. org/10.1038/s41893-022-00994-6