MONITOR 32

Monitor E S S E N T I A L

M E D I A

ISSUE 32

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SUMMER 2024

I N S I G H T

2024: Year of Elections Putin wins again UK election: Russia, China react

Western Balkans: Increased military capability

Belarus elections: Rehearsal for next year?

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Editorial

Who We Are At BBC Monitoring, we track, translate, summarise and analyse local media sources to make sense of what is happening on the ground around the world. Our international perspective means we keep across broadcast, press and social media sources in multiple languages, especially where reliable news and information are in short supply.

Hi all, when the news broke that there would be a summer general election in the UK, colleagues across BBC News went into full election mode. While for us in BBC Monitoring it feels like we have been in election mode all year!

With BBC Monitoring, you are uniquely well-informed, wherever you are in the world.

• Headquartered in London with 12 international bureaux in key locations • 220 staff, plus a global network of contributors • Working in more than 100 languages • Covering 150 countries • 300 stories added every day • Online database has over 7 million entries dating back to 1995 and our archive stretches back to 1939 2

Bureaux Locations CAIRO | DELHI | ISTANBUL | JERUSALEM | KYIV | LONDON | MIAMI | NAIROBI | TASHKENT | TBILISI

Liz Howell Director, BBC Monitoring

In this latest edition of Monitor magazine, BBC Monitoring’s experts delve deep into elections taking place around the world.

We explore the key themes in the Russian, Belarusian, Iranian and Indian polls, with a particular focus on turnout and reaction in the local media. We also take a look at Russian and Chinese reaction to the UK election result.

The Israel-Gaza war and the wider implications in the region also feature in this edition. Florence Dixon, one of our Middle East specialists, looks at how Yemen’s Houthis are using social media to promote their message to the world and how their media machine has evolved since 7 October 2023.

And finally do have a look at the article on how we are evolving our reference material, bringing information from distinctive source material on high priority countries and themes to our consumers.

Best wishes, Liz

Monitor magazine: editorial team MANAGING EDITOR: John Sutherland PICTURES AND DESIGN: Claudia Harding

Contact Us BBC Monitoring London Broadcasting House Portland Place, London W1A 1AA United Kingdom monitoring@bbc.co.uk linkedin.com/company/bbcmonitoring

Back cover: Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president-elect, thanks supporters for their votes after June election

BBC © 2024 All rights reserved. No publication or distribution of the whole or any part of this magazine is permitted without the written consent of BBC Monitoring.

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Featured Stories 4

Putin wins again Yaroslava Kiryukhina on the Russian reaction to March’s presidential election.

14 Elections in Belarus

Lance Luo and Andrey Kondratyev bring us up to date on the parliamentary and local elections in Belarus.

23 Western Balkans arms buildup

Vera Le Quesne-Papic reports on arms purchases and possible military conscription in the region.

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Iran votes Arman Sharifi and Niko Kelbakiani on the results of Iran’s parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections.

17 Houthi social media

Florence Dixon on changes in Houthi social media since the Gaza war started.

26 UK general election

Alistair Coleman reports on Russian and Chinese reaction.

MONITORING.BBC.CO.UK

10 INSIDE

MONITORING Karen Beynon tells us about the evolution of BBC Monitoring’s reference material.

20 India implements citizenship law

Ahead of this year’s elections, Zainul Abid reports on India’s implementation of a controversial new citizenship law.

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Pro-Kremlin commentators hail Putin’s re-election as blow to West While Islamic State’s brutal attack on a concert venue near Moscow only days after the election may have suggested otherwise, President Vladimir Putin remains very much in control. His re-election was hailed by pro-Kremlin commentators as a blow to the West, while independent Russian commentators drew parallels between Putin and late Turkmen dictator Saparmurat Niyazov. Russia specialist Yaroslava Kiryukhina reports.

Putin speaks at press conference in his campaign headquarters in March

President Vladimir Putin’s widely expected election victory predictably sparked jubilation and early congratulations from Russian top officials and pro-Kremlin commentators.

“Putin’s Russia … turned out to be unsinkable”

Putin secured a fifth term in office with 87.28% of the vote, according to the final results announced on 21 March.

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PHOTO BY CONTRIBUTOR/GETTY IMAGES

“Putin’s victory in the elections is a victory for all citizens of our country.

The elections showed the consolidation of society, as well as the highest level of trust in Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin,” Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said in a popular Telegram post (more than 870,000 views) late on 17 March.

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PHOTO BY NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

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Russians demonstrate against Putin in Tbilisi, Georgia, and hold placards saying “No Putin No War”

Pro-Kremlin bloggers hail high turnout abroad “This is a response to those who did everything to prevent our country from becoming strong and sought to destroy it... Russia with President Putin will become even stronger,” Volodin said, without mentioning that Putin has been in power for more than two decades already.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on X: “Congratulations to all Russia’s enemies on Vladimir Putin’s brilliant victory in the Russian presidential election! And a thank you to friends for the support.”

Commenting on the refusal of Western countries to recognise the Russian election as fair and democratic, proKremlin commentator Sergei Markov said that “the West has destroyed its moral authority with its support for the clearly anti-democratic, illegal, repressive and even terrorist regime in Ukraine”.

“The opinion of the West does not matter now. And therefore Putin’s victory is a huge defeat for the West,” he said.

The Russian-language Telegram account of RT TV quoted from a column written for it by commentator Sergei Strokan: “Putin’s Russia, which they wanted to sink to the bottom, turned out to be unsinkable and capable of moving forward. Without a single hole, although they fired at it from all guns”.

“The collective West lost big, since these elections immediately rendered obsolete all attempts to cause social discontent, protest sentiments and direct them against the Russian government through an unprecedented war of sanctions,” Strokan said.

Russian social media users react to election result

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Russian opposition figures had called on voters to gather at polling stations at noon on Sunday 17 March to vote against Putin as part of a non-violent political campaign.

Instead, pro-war propagandists suggested on social media that large queues seen outside polling stations abroad were in fact Russians lining up to fulfil their civic duty and, possibly, cast their ballots for Putin.

“These videos of Russians standing in line to vote in the presidential elections are living evidence of how wrong those politicians are who, in their frenzy, in one fell swoop labelled all those who left after the start of the SVO [Russia’s war on Ukraine] as traitors,” pro-Kremlin TV correspondent Andrei Medvedev said.

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Back to the USSR

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Popular pro-Kremlin blogger Zergulio (Sergei Kolyasnikov) made almost 100 posts with footage of queues in various cities, saying: “Something unprecedented is happening. Nobody expected this, least of all the US and the EU. Today is a very difficult day for Russophobes and anti-Russian propagandists.”

Thus, the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel War on Fakes claimed in a post, which garnered over 1.2 million views, that “opposition [Telegram] channels, under pressure from their own subscribers, are massively deleting fake publications about supposed queues for the ‘Noon against Putin’ rally” in several Russian regions.

“Some did not share the joy of such a massive vote abroad, thinking that these were oppositionists, relocants [Russians who moved abroad after Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine], etc. No, my friends. Russophobes do not stand in lines for 10-12 hours to vote,” Zergulio added in a separate post.

The campaign did not significantly affect the turnout across Russia, independent Verstka publication reported, citing the data of the Central Electoral Commission.

They also sought to refute independent media claims linking noontime queues at some polling stations within Russia to opposition activity.

Noting that Putin had reportedly received 70% of the vote abroad popular pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Readovka Explains concluded that “the current elections represent a setback for the non-systemic opposition.

“All efforts to showcase the presence of an ‘alternative’ Russia abroad have amounted to nothing,” it said.

Queuing outside St Petersburg polling station during presidential election

PHOTO BY OLGA MALTSEVA/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

“The West has destroyed its moral authority with its support for the clearly anti-democratic, illegal, repressive and even terrorist regime in Ukraine”

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Meanwhile, independent commentators Abbas Gallyamov and Vladimir Pastukhov drew parallels between Putin and late Turkmen dictator Saparmurat Niyazov, who referred to himself as Turkmenbashi meaning “Leader of All Turkmen”.

“Hiding behind ‘patriotism,’ the president fooled voters for many years, and now he himself has put everything in its place. No one will believe the crazy 85%. Turkmenbashi, and that’s it,” said Gallyamov.

Speaking on 17 March, before the vote had been officially counted, Pastukhov, said that if Putin achieved 87% then it would mean that “Russia has already completely integrated into the Soviet political format and that the complete restoration of all other Soviet attributes is a matter of the very near future.”

Pundit Yekaterina Shulman echoed them while questioning the election results: “[The system] is forced to show the world Turkmen electoral ornaments instead of a result that is at least somewhat plausible.”

Yaroslava Kiryukhina is a Senior Journalist and editorial lead in our Russia team

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What were the key takeaways from Iran’s parliamentary elections?

While Iran held presidential elections following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, we take a look at the parliamentary elections held on 1 March, which were marked by a low turnout. Iran specialists Arman Sharifi and Niko Kelbakiani report.

Voters arrive at polling station in Tehran

The turnout in Iran’s parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections on 1 March was 41% – the lowest since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979.

While officials and the hardline media celebrated the turnout as a success, it may have been a sign of declining public approval of the establishment, following turnouts of under 50% in both the 2020 parliamentary and 2021 presidential elections.

Arman-e Melli described the absence of 36 million eligible voters as a “silent protest”

As expected, with most reformist and moderate candidates disqualified from running, conservatives won the majority of seats, with the main rivalries now falling within that camp.

Iran’s election headquarters said on 4 March that 245 out of 290 legislators had been elected, with the remainder going to run-offs in April-May. The elected 88 members of the Assembly of Experts – who appoint the supreme leader – were announced the same day.

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PHOTO BY HOSSEIN BERIS/MIDDLE EAST IMAGES/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Conservatives win majority of seats

Demonstrators in Berlin marching in solidarity with protesters in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini MONITORING.BBC.CO.UK

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Any significant rivalry in the near future will be between factions within the conservative camp

How did turnout vary between provinces?

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Tehran and its neighbouring Alborz provinces also recorded some of the lowest turnouts at 34% and 28%, respectively.

In contrast, South Khorasan and Kohgiluyeh-Boyerahmad provinces had the highest turnouts with 64% each, while Hormozgan had a 57% turnout. Qom Province, Iran’s religious area and leading clerical base, recorded a 50% turnout.

Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said only 5% of the votes cast were invalid, contrary to speculation that there would be a much higher number.

Imam Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, votes in Iran’s elections

What will the next parliament look like?

It appears that any significant rivalry in the near future will be between factions within the conservative camp, as noted by the hardline Tasnim News Agency.

The conservative makeup of the parliament and the government since 2021 has ensured a large degree of stability in the top echelons of power, but it has not stopped tensions between the executive and legislative branches.

In recent years, parliament criticised the Raisi administration for its handling of the anti-establishment protests and the state of the economy. This culminated in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urging “cohesion and cooperation” between the three branches of power in an April 2023 address.

Ahead of the 2024 elections, many new conservative groups made a bid for parliament, presenting themselves as alternatives to the ruling faction, which Qalibaf is a part of.

Former parliament speaker and veteran principlist Gholamali HaddadAdel, who is an ally of Qalibaf, suggested these groups were riding on the back of support for the main conservative parties.

Many conservative voices then attacked Haddad-Adel, accusing him of monopolising power in the conservative camp. Amir Hossein Sabeti also fiercely criticised Haddad-Adel in a social media post on 28 February.

Speakers of the Iranian parliament since 1980

BBC MONITORING/FLOURISH

The protest flashpoint of Kordestan Province, populated by the Kurdish minority and Mahsa Amini’s home province, saw a 30% turnout . The restive and impoverished SistanBaluchestan Province, home to Iran’s Sunni Baluch minority, also heavily hit by the 2022 unrest, recorded a 43% turnout.

HAMENEI.IR

According to the official IRNA news agency, 25 million of the 61.2 million eligible voters cast their ballots on polling day.

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Iran’s late President Raisi waves as he votes at Interior Ministry in Tehran

What do the results mean for the Assembly of Experts?

The new Assembly of Experts, which has been elected for an eight-year term, might be the one that will elect the successor to the 84-year-old Khamenei.

The elections showed that the establishment has tried to limit the body strictly to loyalist clerics and exclude any potential dissenting voice from reformist and moderate factions.

The new assembly will have to elect a new chairman, as the current nonagenarian chairman Ahmad Jannati did not run for re-election.

Iran’s former President Khatami at a rally in 2003 following arrests of students in unrest

How will the record-low turnout affect the Islamic Republic?

The low turnout reflects the erosion of public confidence in the establishment and in hopes for change, as Iran battles economic hardships, the fallout from violently oppressed protests, and increasingly limited social freedoms.

The state’s apparent joy at the turnout suggests that it is content with a voter base composed only of its hardcore supporters, and is increasingly less concerned by public opinion.

Supreme Leader Khamenei described the elections as a “jihad in defiance of the enemies’ propaganda”, while the late President Raisi praised the turnout as a “big no” to Iran’s opponents.

However, these elections showed disillusionment among once-loyal reformist and moderate factions, which were instrumental in boosting interest and turnout in almost all past elections.

In a surprise gesture, reformist former President Mohammad Khatami boycotted the election, defending his decision not to vote as a form of protest and to align himself with people and fellow reformists who saw the elections as unfair.

Reformist daily Hammihan noted the large number of invalid votes and expressed surprise that officials were celebrating after such a low turnout.

Another reformist daily, Arman-e Melli, described the absence of 36 million eligible voters as a “silent protest”.

Arman Sharifi is a journalist and Niko Kelbakiani is a senior journalist, both in our Iran team A more detailed version of this story is available on the BBCM website

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Inside Monitoring ESSENTIAL MEDIA INSIGHT

You’ve seen the What, this is the How. Inside Monitoring is a blog written by our staff – journalists, linguists and analysts from around the world. With access to local sources and a nuanced understanding of language and context, they truly live the stories and are able to identify what other news organisations may miss. In this column, they talk about their experiences, initiatives and challenges.

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Changes in Reference The Reference section of BBC Monitoring’s website contains a wealth of immediately accessible, regularly updated and in-depth background information. Editorial lead Karen Beynon describes how our reference material is changing.

Our globally dispersed Reference team provides our customers with profiles of people and organisations in the news: from heads of governments to opposition activists, media owners to military chiefs and much more.

This has enabled us to focus on BBCM’s core areas of expertise, bringing information from distinctive source material on high priority countries and themes to our customers.

In order to continue to meet our customers’ expectations of context and insight with deep regional and thematic expertise, BBC Monitoring’s Reference content is changing, with a much greater emphasis on China, Russia and Iran.

Currently we have over 37,000 regularly updated biographies from around 70 priority countries in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and North and Sub-Saharan Africa, all of which underpin and compliment BBC Monitoring’s media insight and analysis.

A wealth of immediately accessible, regularly updated and in depth background information

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For Russia, China and Iran we are now producing much more detailed content, profiling a broader range of individuals and organisations. With Russia for example we have been able to expand our coverage significantly and ensure more timely updates.

Recent examples, ahead of the Russian presential election, included the barred candidate Boris Nadezhdin and updates on the death of Alexei Navalny – whom we had been covering since 2011 – as well as profiles of key figures in the media and Wagner PMC’s activities. And since the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin we have been looking at his potential successors.

For Russia, China and Iran we are now producing much more detailed content

Russia’s Alexei Navalny – a key figure profiled on our reference database

Expanded biographies include a summary and rich layers of detail: spelling variants of names, background information, personal details, education, career to date and a timeline with key developments, statements and so on.

Similarly, profiles for organisations include an at-a-glance summary and more granular background notes, a timeline and leadership details.

BBCM

Russia, China and Iran

PHOTO BY SEFA KARACAN/ANADOLU AGENCY/GETTY IMAGES

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BBCM

Jihadism 12

Jihadism is a key global theme for us: we aim to profile all jihadist groups and leaders as well as their media outlets, such as Al- Naba, the Islamic State’s (IS) flagship Arabic weekly newspaper and IS news outlet Amaq.

Discover more about the people and organisations you need to know about in over 70 key countries.

BBC Monitoring’s reference content includes: • biographies of leading personalities • profiles of organisations, armed organisations including jihadist groups, political parties • lists of government ministers • senior officials in parliament, ministries, regional government, armed forces, security services and police

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BBCM

Karen Beynon is the editorial lead in our Reference team

BBCM

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Fascinating snippets of history are to be found in the updates that were recorded on around 250,000 cards Monitoring’s reference material in cabinet of record cards

Clear sourcing and attribution

Over 80 years of history in biographical details

Our researchers – experienced regional and thematic specialists with a wide range of language skills and regional media knowledge – expand and update our background content on a daily basis, drawing on BBCM output and open source material from around the world. Content is built up with granular, meticulously researched and double-sourced details.

From the 1940’s until 2000, BBC Monitoring compiled information on personalities as part of an internal reference library which monitors would use to research and verify information. Over the decades this vast set of biographical data was typed on index cards and updated as events unfolded. Fascinating snippets of history are to be found in the updates that were recorded on around 250,000 cards. In the early 2000s BBC Monitoring began to produce a wider set of easily searchable online reference content.

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Examples of early reference material

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Belarus elections: rehearsal for 2025 vote?

Some commentators in Belarus have described the recent parliamentary and local elections as a rehearsal for next year's presidential election. Belarus specialists Lance Luo and Andrey Kondratyev write.

“The creation of an atmosphere of total control and intimidation” 14

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PRESS SERVICE OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS HTTPS://PRESIDENT.GOV.BY/EN/EVENTS

Belarusian President Lukashenka votes in the parliamentary elections on 25 February

BELARUS 24 TV

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Belarus held parliamentary and local elections on the same day for the first time

February’s elections were the first to be held in Belarus since the 2020 presidential election, when Alyaksandr Lukashenka (Alexander Lukashenko) secured a sixth term in office and thousands of opposition activists were detained in the protests that followed.

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanowskaya (Svetlana Tikhanovskaya) described the 25 February vote as a "farce". Her United Transitional Cabinet called on "democratic" nations not to recognise it, saying that the election campaign had been marked "not only by the absence of open debate and competition but also by the creation of an atmosphere of total control and intimidation".

The US Department of State condemned the vote as a "sham" which was held in a climate of "fear", adding that the "United States again calls on the Lukashenka regime to end its crackdown, release all political prisoners, and open dialogue with its political opponents".

China's Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, said that "as the all-weather comprehensive strategic partner of Belarus, China respects the Belarusian people's choice".

Only four pro-Lukashenka political parties, White Rus, the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, and the Party of Labour and Justice, were allowed to stand in the elections.

The country's Central Electoral Commission reported a record amount of early voting and said turnout was around 74%.

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When casting his ballot on 25 February, Lukashenka said that he would be running in the 2025 presidential election.

Meanwhile, Russia's Vladimir Putin congratulated Lukashenka on the "successful outcome" of the elections and "confident victory".

“China respects the Belarusian people's choice”

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Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Belarus opposition leader, speaks at European People’s Party congress in Bucharest

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PRESS SERVICE OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS HTTPS://PRESIDENT.GOV.BY/EN/EVENTS

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President Lukashenka speaks to press after voting

Vyacheslav Danilovich, Rector of the President Academy of Management, Republic of Belarus

Pro-opposition commentators: Rehearsal for 2025

Pro-government commentators reacted enthusiastically to the elections.

Political analyst Valyantsin Starychonak praised the vote, saying that "there was no destructive influence" or "powerful anti-government momentum discrediting the election processes”.

Academic Vyachaslaw Danilovich said that "all the innovations we are watching today are aimed at making the government management system more resilient to any internal and external challenges".

Pro-opposition media said that the elections were a rehearsal for the next presidential election.

Pundit Alyaksandr Klaskowski dubbed the vote "maximum security elections" in which Lukashenka "rehearsed his 'coronation'" for the 2025 election.

According to Klaskowski, the "ruler trained his team for the 2025 election which is much more important for him".

Putin congratulated Lukashenka on the "successful outcome" of the elections The Presidential Palace in Minsk

(PHOTO BY ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

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Commentator Andrey Mukavozchyk hailed the elections but warned that authorities have not yet secured the 2025 presidential election, suggesting that the exiled opposition could be "planning revenge". He warned that there could be a "decisive battle" in 2025.

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But German-Belarusian pundit Alyaksandr Frydman (Alexander Friedman), commenting on Lukashenka's 2025 ambitions, suggested that the leader may wield power through a different official position. "His statement does not mean that he will definitely run for president.

Today Lukashenka simply wants us and, first of all, the West to believe that he will stand in the next election," he argued.

Lance Luo and Andrey Kondratyev are journalists in our Kyiv office

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Houthis escalate rhetoric on social media Yemen’s Houthis are using social media to promote their message to the world. Middle East specialist Florence Dixon looks at how their social media output has evolved since 7 October.

The Houthis’ media arm is shaping the group’s message to the world as it continues to cause high-impact disruption in the Red Sea. A video campaign propagated via social media has moved from expressing solidarity with Palestinians to portraying the Houthis as the only regional force taking action against Israel. In turn, it is positioning the group as a key actor as the conflict in the Red Sea expands to new frontiers, taking on the USA and its allies.

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A Houthi video entitled “The guardian of the Red Sea”

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All three channels have gained subscribers since the escalation in the Red Sea MONITORING.BBC.CO.UK

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Banned on Meta platforms such as Facebook, the rebels primarily use X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram to carry out their online campaign, much of which consists of daily, short, promotional-style videos.

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Houthis find Telegram to be an effective and unrestrictive platform

Warning to Israel and its allies Since 7 October last year, the CPU has shifted its focus to videos that both display solidarity with Palestinian factions and civilians while warning Israel and its allies of retaliation.

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These videos are first posted on the Telegram channel of the group’s Creative Production Unit (CPU) – an offshoot of the group’s official Yemen Military Media (MMY) accounts – and are subsequently reshared by MMY and other key accounts, such as that of Houthi-aligned musician Issa Al-Laith.

All three channels have gained subscribers since the escalation in the Red Sea, indicating that like other armed groups in the region the Houthis find Telegram to be an effective and unrestrictive platform for the effective distribution of their message.

Videos frequently featured recognisable footage from the Hamas attacks

The Houthi videos exhibit the hallmarks of high-value production. They are uniformly available in 1080p high definition, with the majority including original songs, high-quality sound effects, slick transitions and drone footage. The CPU is also adept at subtitling and branding each video to maximise impact and recognition as they are shared across social networks.

This solidarity/threat formula is evident in one of the most-watched videos over the period (181K Telegram views) from 11 December, entitled “The Temporary Entity”, a reference to Israel’s destruction. The video features footage of the aftermath of Israeli air strikes on Gaza and footage of international summits, including the Saudi-hosted Arab League summit on Gaza, narrated by song lyrics despairing at Israeli “crimes” and the inaction of the Arab world.

It then shows clips of Hamas’s 7 October attacks mixed in a montage of pro-Palestinian marches in Yemen, Houthi rocket and drone launches, Houthi forces on the Red Sea coast and a CGI clip simulating an atomic bomb being dropped on Israel.

BBCM/@CREATIVEPRODUCTIONUNITE

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Houthi videos have taken advantage of the Galaxy Leader capture to vow further attacks

Attacks on shipping Several key trends derive directly from the Houthis’ launch of attacks on shipping in mid-November, which the CPU has used to reinforce its messaging in subsequent video content.

Predictably, the group has frequently incorporated real clips of its attacks on ships since its capture of the Galaxy Leader in November. Prior to this, videos often featured clips of missile launches towards Israel where surroundings were blurred to avoid geolocation and the target not being directly shown, arguably reducing their visual impact. In contrast, the attacks with missiles and by combat troops on ships in the Red Sea are shown in greater detail and build a more effective narrative of Houthi naval capabilities.

From solidarity to direct action The shift in the Houthi message from solidarity to direct action – and from supporters to direct players – is also reflected in the footage used. Directly after 7 October, the videos frequently featured recognisable footage from the Hamas attacks, such as paragliders and gunmen breaching the Gaza security barrier. This saw a significant shift from 19 November, when the Houthis’ own footage of missile and combat attacks on Red Sea vessels become the focus of a majority of videos.

Video titles reflect this shift too, with “We are the flood”, “The raging sea” and “Sea flood” released in the two weeks after attacks on ships began.

These titles play on Hamas’s al-Aqsa Flood – a term used verbatim in CPU videos immediately after 7 October.

Similarly, from mid-November, the clips used for videos were increasingly set at sea, arguably an attempt to associate Houthi forces with naval and sea-faring prowess, showing for example the Galaxy Leader’s capture, or patrols or training exercises by wetsuit-clad Houthi forces adeptly manoeuvring small boats or praying on the beach. A handful of these also incorporated CGI of ships caught in large waves coming under Houthi attack, while others included music and dance performances on the deck of the Galaxy Leader itself.

Notably, in mid-October when the Houthis first claimed to have launched missiles at Israel, titles such as “I am Gaza, fire and victory”, “Time of unity” and “You’re not alone”, underlined their solidarity with the Palestinians.

“You’re not alone” was also used as a hashtag for CPU videos on Telegram from 14 October to 28 November. From 4 January, in line with Houthi officials and supporters online, CPU began using the hashtag “The battle of the promised conquest and holy jihad”, a widely-used Houthi reference for the ship attacks.

Since then, Houthi videos have increasingly turned their focus to threatening the USA – its adversary on the new Red Sea battlefront – as well as Israel – with titles such as “Let there be direct war with the Americans” and “America is in real trouble”.

Florence Dixon is a journalist in our Middle East team A more detailed version of this story can be found on our website

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India implements controversial citizenship law ahead of vote In March the Indian government implemented a controversial citizenship law more than four years after it was passed in parliament. Critics, including the opposition parties, said the law discriminated against Muslims and questioned the timing of the move just weeks before the country’s general elections. India specialist Zainul Abid reports.

Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, speaks at the Global Business Summit in New Delhi

Urdu-language media, which generally speak for the Muslim community, criticised the government move 20

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Amit Shah, national president of BJP, addresses press conference in Kolkata

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Shashi Tharoor attends the ‘Ideas of India’ by ABP network in Mumbai

Republic TV anchor Arnab Goswami

Call for protests On 11 March the Indian government said it would implement the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), triggering protests from various opposition parties.

The law allows Indian citizenship for “persecuted” non-Muslim refugees and asylum seekers from India’s neighbouring countries Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan. Even if they had illegally entered India before 31 December 2014 or overstayed their residence permits, they would now be eligible to apply for Indian citizenship.

Prominent English-language daily The Indian Express reported that Tamil Hindus in Sri Lanka and the Rohingyas in Myanmar – persecuted minorities in their countries – also do not come under the CAA. After implementing the law, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah said, “We had said we will bring CAA. The Congress party opposed the CAA… PM Modi honoured Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, and Jain refugees through CAA.”

Opposition parties, including the Congress party, pointed out that the government announcement was made ahead of the general elections by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in order to consolidate Hindu votes.

Congress party leader Shashi Tharoor said, “It is morally and constitutionally wrong. Introducing religion as a criterion for citizenship goes against the principles of the Constitution.”

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Similarly, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen party president Asaduddin Owaisi said the law “is meant to only target Muslims, it serves no other purpose".

The law triggered nation-wide violent protests when it was passed in 2019, resulting in more than 100 deaths and thousands being arrested by law enforcement agencies.

The law triggered nation-wide violent protests when it was passed in 2019

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Chief Minister of West Bengal Mamata Banerjee at meeting of opposition alliance

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Congress party workers protest after implementation of new citizenship act

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“It is morally and constitutionally wrong. Introducing religion as a criterion for citizenship goes against the principles of the Constitution” Asaduddin Owaisi, president of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) party

Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal state, home to a large Muslim population, said she would steadfastly oppose "anything that discriminates” against people.

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The government in the southern Kerala state said the federal action aims to “divide the people, stir up communal feelings and undermine the basic principles of the constitution”.

The chief minister of another southern state, Tamil Nadu, called it an "attempt" by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to “salvage his sinking ship” by exploiting religious sentiments for political gains.

The move has also sparked protests in some parts of the country including in the north-eastern Assam state, where at least five people had died during violent demonstrations against the CAA in 2019. Opposition parties in the state called a protest strike against the law on 12 March.

Security has also been tightened in the capital, Delhi – in particular in Jamia Nagar, an epicentre of the anti-CAA protests in 2019.

Media reaction While pro-government media hailed the government decision, there was criticism in the Urdu language media.

Welcoming the federal government decision, Hindi daily Hindustan said in an editorial: “Solving the problems of those forced to come to India from Pakistan or Bangladesh must be a priority for the country.”

Popular Hindi daily Dainik Jagran said the critics of the law were playing “cheap politics”, adding that state governments had no say in granting citizenship to anyone.

In his prime time debate on leading English language channel Republic TV, anchor Arnab Goswami called the CAA the “most humanitarian law”, adding the criticism against it was “fake propaganda” by the opposition.

However, Urdu-language media, which generally speak for the Muslim community, criticised the government move.

A report by popular Urdu daily Inquilab accused the Modi government of playing the "politics of polarisation" ahead of the general elections by notifying the "controversial" act.

Prominent foreign affairs journalist Suhasini Haider said: “Apart from being discriminatory, the law is unnecessary, as those eligible could have been granted citizenship directly by the govt years ago.”

“Pulling out communal cards just before elections and notifying CAA rules on the eve of Ramadan are nothing less than divisive politics from PM Modi,” activist Sujat Ambedkar said on X. “It is not acceptable to implement any law like the Indian Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 (CAA) in an environment where all citizens of the country live with social harmony,” popular Tamil actor Thalapathy Vijay said.

Zainul Abid is an India specialist in our Delhi Office

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Western Balkans states ramp up military capability Western Balkan states are ramping up their military capabilities, with Serbia, Croatia and Kosovo announcing deliveries of modern weapons and aircraft from the USA, Russia, China and Turkey this year.

Balkans specialist Vera Le Quesne-Papic reports.

The arms purchases were coupled with announcements in Serbia and Croatia of the introduction of mandatory army service, reported by Al Jazeera Balkans TV and other regional media.

Kosovo, whose status is still in question, as Serbia does not recognise its independence, does not have an army as such but has continued to train up its special armed forces.

Serbia has continued to head the Global Fire Power index as the country with the strongest army in the Western Balkans, ranking as the 56th country in the world in this year’s report.

Croatia ranks 66th, Albania 90th, North Macedonia 110th, Bosnia-Hercegovina 116th, and Montenegro 129th, out of 145 countries assessed.

Serbia recently said it would significantly invest in further boosting its army and arms stockpiles. This coincided with the start of the Steadfast Defender 2024 drill, billed as Nato’s largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War. They also coincided with a spate of visits by top Nato officials to the region and a more intense focus on the Western Balkans, both by the West and Russia.

MINISTRY OF DEFENCE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA (MOD.GOV.RS)

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Serbia will “respond appropriately” to the recent military agreement between Turkey and Kosovo

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PHOTO BY ANDREJ ISAKOVIC/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

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Compulsory military service Serbia’s President Vucic and ministers inspect soldiers during military exercise on Serbian Armed Forces Day 2023

Serbia

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Serbia has announced it will form drone units in its army. President Aleksandar Vucic said on 30 January that the army planned “substantially” to increase its stockpiles of domestically produced kamikaze drones this year. Speaking to journalists at an arms fair at the Topcider army base near Belgrade, he stressed the need for a robust army that was fully prepared for any eventuality, considering the current global situation, public broadcaster RTS reported.

“In the modern world, as you can see, the madness continues every day... And I am afraid that it will get worse. With what we are doing, we are protecting our country,” he said. He said the plans included expanding troop numbers and introducing compulsory military service later this year. For all this, there will be substantial new funding, which he said would also be needed for the 850-plus new weapons systems to be purchased from Serbia’s domestic arms industry in the next few years.

Kosovo Vucic also revealed that Serbia had imported the Russian mobile antidrone system for electronic jamming, Repellent, announcing that it would be presented on 15 February at the Nis army base as part of celebrations marking Serbia’s Statehood Day. He did not specify when the system was imported, but said it was purchased “a long time ago”, the Balkan branch of Radio Free Europe reported. On the same day, Russian outlet Sputnik in Serbian carried a summary of the system’s capabilities and features.

At the end of January, Kosovo signed a Military Framework Agreement with Turkey with a view to boosting military ties. Last summer, Kosovo bought a batch of Turkish Bayraktar drones. In autumn, a senior Turkish officer took over the command of the Nato-led Kfor forces, to Serbia’s disapproval.

Vucic also said Serbia was “close to completing the third battery of the FK-3 air defence missile system from China”, without further details. Last autumn, Defence Minister Mios Vucevic discussed the purchase of military equipment with China, especially drones and air defence systems, and announced closer bilateral defence and military ties.

Kosovo’s military experts and pundits saw Serbia’s announcements, especially Vucic’s disclosure that Serbia plans to spend some 740m euros on arms procurement, as a response to the military build-up in the region, as reported by Albanianlanguage website Koha.

Minister Vucevic, who was also present at the Topcider base alongside the army chief, Gen Milan Mojsilovic, echoed Vucic’s statements and said the drive to boost the army was in response to the general global situation and had nothing to do with Kosovo. But he said that Serbia will “respond appropriately” to the recent military agreement between Turkey and Kosovo, stressing Serbia’s “commitment to safeguarding its territorial integrity”.

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Also in January, it was widely reported that the US had agreed to sell Javelin anti-tank missiles and related equipment to Kosovo for $75m, fuelling more concern in Serbia.

Tensions have continued to brew between Kosovo and Serbia since a deadly clash between Kosovo forces and Serb gunmen in the former. Since then, the Nato-led Kfor mission has boosted its forces, with additional reinforcements announced this month.

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A further eight new Black Hawk helicopters

Croatian soldiers with Black Hawk helicopter donated by the USA to the Republic of Croatia

Croatia buys Black Hawks, considers mandatory army service

Amassing troops at joint borders

At the end of January, Croatia announced that the purchase of a further eight new Black Hawk helicopters from the US. The value of the contract is estimated at $500m, TV channel Nova reported. The army already has four such helicopters – two were donated by the Americans, and two were bought.

Croatia and Serbia have also been reported to be massing troops at their joint border. According to the Serbianlanguage military-focused Balkan Security Network (BSN) website, Serbia currently has more troops stationed there than Croatia, while both countries have also deployed river flotillas.

Stockpiles of domestically produced kamikaze drones

Vera Le Quesne-Papic is a Balkans specialist A more detailed version of this story is available on our website

Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti with officials after receiving Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones in Pristina

PHOTO BY PRIME MINISTRY OF KOSOVO/ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES

In December, regional media reported the arrival in Croatia of 22 Bradley fighting vehicles as part of the first batch of second-hand vehicles it had purchased from the US. The first batch and the remaining 89 Bradleys will be overhauled and modernised at a local factory, with the first vehicle due to become operational by July 2024. This procurement will boost the Croatian army’s capacities, strengthen Nato’s role in the region and also strengthen Croatian and US defence cooperation, the US embassy said at the time.

Croatia also announced in January that it was considering introducing compulsory military service lasting at least a month. The defence ministry confirmed the plans after widely reported leaks in the media, public broadcaster HRT reported. Gen Marko Gresic told HRT that talks had started last year and the consensus was that it should be longer, four or five months, it was widely reported.

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Monitor ISSUE 32

Russia and China react to UK election result New UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s most pressing foreign policy problems look like being how to deal with Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China, Alistair Coleman reports.

Russian media expects no change

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But there are already clues as to how Moscow and Beijing through their state-controlled media see a Starmer administration from their initial reactions to the election.

Russian TV pundits on the day after the election seemed to rejoice at the Conservative defeat, but did not expect London’s “Russophobic course” to change under Labour.

Russia’s main TV channels said the result was a “miserable failure” for the Conservative party, saying that Brexit had been its only achievement in the 14 years of its rule.

TV pundits also dwelled on one of their pet subjects – that Russia is eternally the victim of nefarious British plots. On state-controlled Channel One, the election campaign was framed as Russia being a scapegoat.

“This election, like politics in general in Britain in recent years, just can’t manage without an enemy figure in the form of Russia,” Channel One said.

The Russian media do not expect change in the UK’s policies towards Moscow

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Both Russia’s President Putin and China’s President Xi are looking to increase their global influence and the Labour government was quick to make its intentions clear regarding engagement with allies over threats from the East.

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The Chinese media gave a cautious welcome to the new UK government

China: Hoping for improved relations Outlets and commentators suggested that London wouldn’t change its policies toward Russia, noting that Starmer’s stance on Moscow is essentially the same as Sunak’s. “For Moscow, his arrival in power changes nothing, since he takes anti-Russian positions and supports continued backing for Ukraine,” Gazprom-owned NTV said.

China’s initial statements following the Labour victory were cautious, with its Foreign Ministry saying that Beijing “had noticed the results of the British election” and that “we hope to get Sino-UK relations along the right track”. Also cautious was state TV channel CCTV, which asked: “With six prime ministers in eight years, can Starmer clean up the UK’s mess?”

This view is illustrated by newlyappointed UK Defence Secretary John Healey travelling to Odessa to meet Ukraine’s president; but progovernment paper Izvestiya thought that the war was not at the front of British voters’ minds: “Political changes in Europe show that for the electorate, internal issues are becoming much more important than Ukraine.”

State-affiliated outlet The Paper similarly said the next government would face “the most challenging issues in 70 years”, and that “public dissatisfaction” might soon follow.

However, state-run newspaper Global Times published a positive profile of the new PM, saying Keir Starmer is “not the inflammatory politician that people imagine”, and that media impressions of him are that he is “conscientious, good at management, and a little dull”.

They also mentioned that he is an Arsenal fan.

TV chat show host Olga Skabeyeva show summed up the Russian media’s mood: “In essence, one set of Russophobes replaces another”.

After Premier Li Qiang had sent his congratulations to Downing Street, an English-language article in Global Times said that while the new Labour government might adopt a more “flexible and pragmatic” approach to China, it would have difficulty circumventing “long-standing fundamental issues”. Amongst these are tricky concerns surrounding security, human rights, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Hoping to get things off to a positive start, Chinese media reflected their government’s hopes for a UK-Sino relationship which “jointly promotes world peace, stability, and prosperity”.

Alistair Coleman is a senior journalist in our London office

Russia’s main TV channels said the result was a “miserable failure” for the Conservative Party MONITORING.BBC.CO.UK

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