Big Story Predicting a COVID recovery

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THE BIG STORY

Predicting a COVID recovery

1 BIG THING: Economist Loren Scott predicts the Capital Region will add about 16,600 jobs next year and 5,300 jobs the year after.

WHY IT MATTERS: If Scott is right, Greater Baton Rouge employment would grow 4.2% in 2022 and 1.3% in 2023, regaining the COVID-19 recession’s losses and setting a regional record with 415,300 jobs.

HIGHLIGHTS: Scott says the new

$200 million, 3.5 million-squarefoot Amazon fulfillment center

being built at the old Cortana Mall site on Florida Boulevard is “by far” the biggest recent economic development news for the region. Employment at the center is expected to be between 1,000 and 3,600 jobs based on the amount of parking being built, which is a wide range, but even the low end would be a huge boost to the area’s economy, he says. • Industry: There are about $6 billion in capital investments underway in this region and another $7.9 billion that have been announced. These projects have fueled industrial construction demand for such large Baton Rougearea players as Turner Industries, ISC, Performance Contractors, Cajun Contractors and MMR, among others. • Infrastructure: The federal government plans to spend billions in the coming years on flood mitigation, including $343 million on the Comite River Diversion Canal. The first phase of an effort to widen Interstate 10, a $716 million section that runs from Washington Street to Essen, is scheduled to begin in late 2022. The state has designated $529.6 million in road lettings for this region over 2022-23. • Gaming: Hollywood Casino’s new owners have broken ground on a $60 million project to move the facility inland and are planning to add about 200 employees once the move is completed.

CAVEATS: Predicting the future is hard, and Scott admits his projections are based in part on “gut calls and our overall knowledge of each area of the state.” • The forecast assumes the

COVID-19 “monster” is under

control. Gov. John Bel Edwards was concerned enough about the pandemic in late September to extend the statewide mask mandate four additional weeks. • Though Scott questions the accuracy of the data, Louisiana has

only added back an estimated 49% of the jobs lost during the

recession. That’s in large part because Lake Charles, which was devastated by last year’s hurricanes and continues to await significant federal aid, may be the only metropolitan statistical area of its size in the country that actually has fewer people employed now than in April 2020. • Changes to tax rates, fed-

eral regulations and commodity

prices all could affect the nation’s—and Louisiana’s—recovery.

BOTTOM LINE: Scott expects the Capital Region to add back virtually all the jobs it lost last year by next year, beating the rest of the state to that threshold. The region would be second-fastest growing MSA in the state and the third-fastest in percentage terms, with New Orleans and Lake Charles ranked higher primarily because they are recovering at a much slower pace this year.