Houston Region Economic Outlook - March 2, 2020

Houston Region Economic Outlook Prepared by Patrick Jankowski SVP Research

December 6, 2019

OPEC expands production cuts

OPEC Meets in Vienna Production cuts Additional 500,000 b/d Now holding back 2.1 million b/d

Aramco IPO $1.88 trillion value Russia

OPEC Meets in Vienna Production cuts Additional 500,000 b/d Now holding back 2.1 million b/d

Aramco IPO $1.88 trillion value

Member noncompliance Who’s the boss?

Russia or Saudi Arabia

WTYI Crude Spot Price 65

$/Barrel

60

55

50

45

40 1-Oct

15-Oct

29-Oct

12-Nov

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

26-Nov

10-Dec

24-Dec

7-Jan

21-Jan

4-Feb

18-Feb

January 15, 2020

U.S. signs China trade deal

U.S. - China Deal (Phase One) U.S. benefits Increased ag, auto, equipment, energy purchases Easier access to financial markets Some IP protections (?)

U.S. - China Deal (Phase One) U.S. benefits Increased ag, auto, equipment, energy purchases Easier access to financial markets Some IP protections (?)

China benefits Halt in any escalation A few tariff reductions

U.S. - China Deal (Phase Two) To be negotiated Role of State-Owned Enterprises Chinese subsidies of exporting industries Further tariff reductions

U.S. - China Deal (Phase One) Things won’t get any worse Consensus that U.S. should challenge China’s worst practices Win for Trump going into the election

Houston’s Top Trading Partners Rank Trading Partner 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Mexico Brazil China South Korea Netherlands India Germany United Kingdom Japan Colombia All Others Total

$ Billions

% Total

21.7 15.4 14.7 13.5 11.7 10.1 10.0 9.3 9.2 7.0 114.3 $237.0

9.1 6.5 6.2 5.7 4.9 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.0 48.2 100.0

Houston Trade with China – ’19 $ Billions

12.7 10.3

7.2

4.4

Exports

Source: WISERTrade

Imports '18

'19

January 28, 2020

FOMC leaves interest rates unchanged

FOMC Meeting Too soon to gauge impact of 2019 rate cuts

FOMC Meeting Too soon to gauge impact of 2019 rate cuts Keeping an eye on impact of coronavirus

FOMC Meeting Too soon to gauge impact of 2019 rate cuts Keeping an eye on impact of coronavirus Fed not concerned about a U.S. recession

January 29, 2020

USMCA signed

U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement “One of the worst trade deals in history”

U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement “One of the worst trade deals in history�

U.S. benefits Higher North American content in autos Access to Canadian dairy markets Protections for digital, ecommerce Addresses environmental and union concerns

U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement “One of the worst trade deals in history�

U.S. benefits Higher North American content in autos Access to Canadian dairy markets Protections for digital, ecommerce Addresses environmental and union concerns

Canada/Mexico benefits Ceases negative rhetoric Eases uncertainty

Houston’s Top Trading Partners – ’19 Rank Trading Partner 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Mexico Brazil China South Korea Netherlands India Germany United Kingdom Japan Colombia All Others Total

$ Billions

% Total

21.7 15.4 14.7 13.5 11.7 10.1 10.0 9.3 9.2 7.0 114.3 $237.0

9.1 6.5 6.2 5.7 4.9 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.0 48.2 100.0

Canada #12, $5.6B

Houston Trade with Mexico – ’19 $ Billions 18 16

16.1 14.6

14 12 10

8.8

8

7.0

6 4 2 0 Exports

Source: WISERTrade

Imports '18

'19

January 31, 2020

UK withdraws from the EU

UK Withdraws from EU Political Union January 31 exit

Trade Union December 31 exit

UK Withdraws from EU Political Union January 31 exit

Trade Union December 31 exit

Why? To regain control/sovereignty

Impact on trade and Investment TBD

Houston’s Top Trading Partners – ’19 Rank Trading Partner 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Mexico Brazil China South Korea Netherlands India Germany United Kingdom Japan Colombia All Others Total

$ Billions

% Total

21.7 15.4 14.7 13.5 11.7 10.1 10.0 9.3 9.2 7.0 114.3 $237.0

9.1 6.5 6.2 5.7 4.9 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.0 48.2 100.0

Houston Trade with UK – ’19 $ Billions 7

6.6

6 5.2 5 4 2.7

3 2.2 2 1 0 Exports

Source: WISERTrade

Imports '18

'19

January 30, 2020

WHO declares coronavirus public health emergency

Coronavirus Health Emergency Extent of outbreak (as of 3/1/20) 87,137 cases 7,169 outside China

58 countries Every continent but Antarctica

2,977 deaths 104 outside China

Coronavirus Health Emergency Spanish Influenza (January 1918 – December 1920) 500 million infected 20 - 50 million deaths

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (November 2002 and July 2003) 8,098 infected 714 deaths

2018-2019 U.S. Flu Season 35 million illnesses 810,000 hospitalizations 61,000 deaths

Coronavirus Health Emergency Spanish Influenza (January 1918 – December 1920) 500 million infected 20 - 50 million deaths

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (November 2002 - July 2003) 8,098 infected 714 deaths

2018-2019 U.S. Flu Season 35 million illnesses 810,000 hospitalizations 61,000 deaths

Coronavirus Health Emergency Spanish Influenza (January 1918 – December 1920) 500 million infected 20 - 50 million deaths

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (November 2002 and July 2003) 8,098 infected 714 deaths

2018-2019 U.S. Flu Season 35 million illnesses 810,000 hospitalizations 61,000 deaths

Uncertainty Fear Misinformation

Coronavirus Health Emergency % of Hong Kong Population 26.0%

0.3% Residents Concerned They Would Catch SARS

Source: Asian Development Bank

Residents Who Actually Caught SARS

Coronavirus Health Emergency Initial impacts Travel Entertainment Hotels Restaurants Retail Financial markets

Delayed impacts Exports Supply chains Commodities

S&P 500 Index Daily, Not Seasonally Adjusted 3,400 3,300

3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800

www.who.int

50

Houston Employment Growth 12-Month Moving Total 140 120

Jobs (000s)

100

80 60 40

20 0 -20 '14 Apr Jul Oct '15 Apr Jul Oct '16 Apr Jul Oct '17 Apr Jul Oct '18 Apr July Oct '19 Apr July Oct '20 Source: Texas Workforce Commission 51

U.S. Real GDP Growth Rate, % Change from Previous Quarter 4.0

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.0 2.5

3.5

3.2

3.0

2.3 2.0

2.0

2.2 1.9

2.3 2.0

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.3

1.5

3.1

2.9

2.1

2.1

1.1

1.0 0.5

0.1

0.0 Q4/14

Q2/15

Q4/15

Q2/16

Q4/16

Q2/17

Q4/17

Q2/18

Q4/18

Q2/19

Q4/19

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

52

U.S. Real GDP Average Annual Growth, % Change 2.5 2.3

2.3

2.1

Past 12 Months

2.1

Past 5 Years

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data

Past 10 Years

Past 20 Years

Past 30 Years

U.S. Job Growth 1-Month Net Change 400 350

Jobs (000s)

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 '11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

'20

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 54

Global Growth Real GDP, % Change 3.4

3.3

2.9

'19

'20

'21

Source: International Monetary Fund, January 2020 55

Metro Houston Exports $ Billions 151.8 141.4 119.8

126.8

128.8

130.5 109.2

94.5

'10

109.0 91.7

'11

Source: WISERTrade

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

57

58

59

60

It’s like déjà vu all over again.

--Yogi Berra

September 2019

June 2015

62

January 2016

November 2019

63

January 2016

June 2019

64

October 2019

February 2015

65

Déjà Vu Oil Prices ($) Period

Cause

’82 – ’87

Rigs Lost

Energy Jobs Lost

Peak

Trough

#

Oil Price Bust

30.75

12.05

-3,766

83.3

-53,600

-46.3

’90 – ’91

Interest Rate Spike

35.89

14.57

-526

46.3

-13,900

-7.2

’01 – ’03

Enron/911

34.55

19.53

-528

41.3

-13,300

-6.9

’08 – ’09

Great Recession

136.96

39.51

-1,119

44.4

-11,900

-13.6

’15 – ’16 Fracking Bust

106.31

30.32

-1,527

79.1

-92,400

-30.7

’19 – ?

70.98

53.84

-286

26.4

TBD

TBD

New Reality

%

#

%

Note: All losses calculated from the monthly average Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Baker Hughes, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

66

It’s like déjà vu all over again.

--Yogi Berra

Office Déjà Vu 1982 – 1986 New Construction 71.7 MSF

Vacancy Rates: (’87): 30.2% (’96): 16.2%

Source: Houston Facts

68

Office Déjà Vu 2011 – 2016 New Construction 33.0 MSF

Availability Rate (Q4/19): 25.9%

Sources: Transwestern, NAI Partners

69

Multifamily Déjà Vu 1981 – 1984 New Units 100,500

1985 – 1991 New Units 9,309 Source: Houston Facts

70

Multifamily Déjà Vu 2013 – 2019 New Units 107,603

Under Construction 22,690

Proposed 28,080 Source: Apartment Data Services

71

Growth has been slower than we’d like.

72

Houston Vehicle Sales 12-Month Moving Total 400

Vehicles (000s)

360

320

280

240

200 '08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

'20

Source: TexAuto Facts by InfoNation 73

Houston Construction Starts 12-Month Moving Total

35 30

$ Billions

25 20 15 10 5 0 '09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

'20

Source: Dodge Data & Analytics 74

Sales Tax Collections, 12 Most Populous Cities* % Change, 12-Month Moving Total 12 9

% Change

6 3 0

-3 -6 * Baytown, Conroe, Friendswood, Galveston, Houston, La Porte, League City, Missouri City, Pasadena, Pearland, Sugar Land and Texas City

-9 -12 '09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

'20

Source: Partnership calculations based on data from the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts 75

Houston Purchasing Managers Index 70 65 60

55 50 45 40 35 30 '08

'09

'10

'11

Source: Institute for Supply Management - Houston

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

'20

2020 Employment Forecast

42,300 Jobs 77

Metro Houston Job Growth Annual Change from December to December (000s)

91.3

106.9

117.5 91.0

90.0

82.9

60.2

116.7 73.3 54.2

50.5

39.5

88.0 42.3

21.5

1.5 -1.3

-2.5 -2.4

-11.4

-110.5 '00

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

'20

Source: Texas Workforce Commission & Greater Houston Partnership forecast

78

2020 Houston Job Forecast 7,900 6,300

6,200 5,400

5,000

4,700

4,000 1,700

Source: Greater Houston Partnership

1,600

79

2020 Employment Forecast

1,400

1,200

1,100

1,000

1,000

0 -200 -2,000 -4,000

Source: Greater Houston Partnership

80

The 2020s are beginning to look a lot like the 1990s.

81

Oil Prices & Houston Employment Employment

2.5

90

2.4

80

2.3

70

2.2

60

2.1

50

2

40

1.9

30

1.8

20

1.7

10

1.6

0

Jobs, Millions

WTI ($/bbl)

Monthly Oil Prices

100

1.5 '90

'92

'94

'96

'98

'00

Source: Texas Workforce Commission, U.S. Energy Information Administration

82

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate, % Change from Previous Quarter 8.0 6.0

4.0 2.0 0.0

-2.0 -4.0 -6.0 '90

'91

'92

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

'93

'94

'95

'96

'97

'98

'99

'00 83

Foreign Shipments – Port of Houston Million Short Tons

$, Billions $43.4

120.3

$23.8

63.0

'90 Source: Houston Facts

'00

'90

'00 84

85

VC Funding in Houston (12-Month Total) 700

Jan ’20 $620 M

600

$ millions

500 400 300

200 100 0 '12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

'18

'19

'20

'21

Source: Partnership Analysis of Pitcbhook Data

86

Job Growth in the 1990s

Energy 4,500 0.9%

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Everything Else 515,500 99.1%

87

Don’t write off oil and gas just yet.

Global Oil/Liquids Demand Million Barrels/Per Day

88.5

'10

94.8

'15

Source: BP 2019 Energy Outlook

101.6

104.9

106.4

107.9

107.7

'20

'25

'30

'35

'40

In summary . . .

Houston’s challenges Short-Term Coronavirus Global slowdown

Long-term Overbuilt real estate market Managing the energy transition

WHO asks that you . . .  Wash your hands frequently

 Avoid anyone who’s coughing or sneezing  Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth  If sick, seek medical care early

 Stay informed

92

Houston Economic Outlook Prepared by Patrick Jankowski SVP Research