Legislative Update

L e g i s l a t i v e U p d a t e

Voting in This Election

Full 2018 Primary Election Guide including detailed descriptions of district races, provided by Compass Strategies, can be downloaded at https://bit.ly/2L8alug. PRIMARY ELECTION: Tuesday, August 28th GENERAL ELECTION: Tuesday, November 6th

The general election will be Tuesday, November 6th, and the primary election will be Tuesday, August 28th. The deadline to register to vote for the August 28th primary is July 30th, 2018.

Register to vote and sign up for the Permanent Early Voting List online at ServiceArizona.com.

Early voting for the primary begins on August 1st. Independent voters may vote in primary elections in Arizona. If you are on the Permanent Early Voting List, contact your county recorder’s office to specify what type of ballot you would like to receive. If you are going to a polling site on Election Day, request your ballot type from a poll worker. Click HERE to request a partisan mail-in ballot if you live in Maricopa County.

If you request a mail-in ballot and do not return it by August 22nd, you may skip the line and drop it off at your polling place on Election Day. Find your polling place on the Arizona Secretary of State’s website.

Find your legislative and congressional district by entering your address at the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission’s website.

Election Overview

The 2018 elections in Arizona will include statewide offices, federal offices, and all legislative seats. Currently, Republicans hold all statewide offices and majorities in both chambers of the legislature. Democrats hope to increase their footprint statewide and shift power in one or both chambers, while Republicans will try to maintain their statewide dominance and retain their majorities in the House and Senate.

Continued on page 12

IMPORTANT DATES FOR PRIMARY

Deadline to register to vote

July 30

Early voting begins

August 1

Last day to request a ballot by mail

August 17

Last day to mail in your early ballot

August 22

Last day to vote early in person

August 24

PRIMARY ELECTION DAY August 28

Legislative Update continued

Statewide Voter Trends

There is a perceived trend of the party not currently occupying the White House gaining ground in presidential midterm years. However, Arizona Republicans have increased their registration lead over Democrats since the 2016 general election. Between November 2016 and March of this year, Republicans have added an additional 19,380 voters to their rolls, while Democrats have lost 1,013. Party registration for Libertarians and the Green party has also declined slightly, while independent voters have increased by 3,942 (See figure 1).

Given Republicans’ past performance and increased registration advantage, it will be difficult for a Democrat to win one of the statewide offices. Interestingly, while all of the major statewide officers — governor, secretary of state, attorney general, and superintendent of public instruction — are running for reelection, all but Attorney General Mark Brnovich will face challengers in the Republican primary. Superintendent Diane Douglas is likely to have the toughest path to reelection and faces both a competitive primary as well as a general election challenge.

Legislative Changes

Of the 90 sitting legislators, 57 are running for reelection to their current seats and 18 are running for election to a different legislative seat — for example, House members running for Senate. Thirty-six of these legislators will face primary races (See figure 2 on page 13).

Currently, Republicans control 35 of 60 seats in the State House and 17 of 30 seats in the State Senate. Of the two legislative chambers, Democrats have the best shot of flipping or splitting the State Senate. To flip the Senate, Democrats would need to pick up two seats in competitive districts currently held by popular Republicans (Kate Brophy McGee in LD 28 and Frank Pratt in LD 8) and pick up seats in districts that lean Republican.

While there will be several competitive legislative races in the November election that could significantly change the makeup of the legislature, 22 of Arizona’s 30 districts are considered “safe” districts for either Republicans or Democrats. Legislators from these safe districts will almost certainly be determined in the August primary election (See figure 3 on page 13).

FIGURE 1

Leadership Races

The outcomes of August’s primaries will have major implications both for the general election and for legislative leadership races. No members of the current Republican leadership team in the Senate are running for reelection to the Senate — President Steve Yarbrough is retiring, Majority Leader Kimberly Yee is running statewide, and Majority Whip Gail Griffin is running for the House. The Senate Democrats will see big changes

Legislative Update continued

too, as both Minority Leader Katie Hobbs and Assistant Minority Leader Steve Farley are running statewide. The Democrats’ co-whips, Martin Quezada and Lupe Contreras, will be the only members of leadership returning to the Senate. The Republican leadership team will also change on the House side. Speaker JD Mesnard is running for the Senate and, while Majority Leader John Allen and Majority Whip Kelly Townsend are both expected to return to the House, neither plans to seek a position in leadership next year. House Democrats will elect a new leader too, as Minority Leader Rebecca Rios is running for the Senate. The other members of Democratic leadership, Assistant Minority Leader Randy Friese and Minority Whip Charlene Fernandez, are both planning to return to the House and are expected to run for leadership positions. n

FIGURE 2

FIGURE 3