Flagstaff Progress 2017

UNIVERSIT Y IN EXPANSION Northern Arizona University continues its record-breaking trend of enrollment, which also has led to many developments on campus. Page. 10

PAINT IT GREEN An economic impact study by the Flagstaff Arts Council is opening up to demonstrate what creative endeavors can do for the city. Page. 16

GETTING ON THE BUS Mountain Line remains on the forefront of Flagstaff’s alternative transportation offerings, making connectivity between campus, town and beyond. Page. 22

PROGRESS FLAGSTAFF | 2017

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PROGRESS 2017

FLAGSTAFF | 2017

PROGRESS

PUBLISHER

ART DIRECTOR

DON ROWLEY

KEITH HICKEY

Flagstaff Progress Magazine is published Annually at 1751 S. THOMPSON ST. | Flagstaff, AZ 86001 ISSN: 1534-3804

EDITOR

SALES CONTRIBUTORS

SETH MULLER 928.913.8668

SAVANNAH BARLOW SHAYNE CAFFREY SARAH DOMBROSKI KIM DUNCAN ZACHARY MEIER LYDIA SMITH

ADVERTISING DIRECTOR COLLEEN BRADY 928.556.2279

ASSISTANT EDITOR DIANDRA MARKGRAF 928.913.8670

GRAPHIC ARTISTS CALLIOPE LUEDEKER CANDACE SCHIPPER LAURIE WINN

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2017 PROGRESS

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Photo by Moyan Brenn - Flickr.com

Contents

6 22

14

6

AS THE GRAND CANYON GOES …

In the past year, Flagstaff has seen major growth across many sectors and throughout the community.

And some of the economic boost has come from the Grand Canyon visitation topping six million people and the ongoing celebrations of the centennial.

8 A LANDMARK YEAR President and CEO Julie Pastrick shares views on the past year’s happenings, from 2016 and into 2017—with development gains that many people have never previously seen.

10 UNIVERSITY IN EXPANSION

Northern Arizona University continues its record-breaking trend of enrollment, which also has led to many developments on campus.

12 THE WEST SIDE STORY

The West Side of Flagstaff has seen a big boom in the past year, with major growth in commercial projects, new moves forward with street alignments, and other notable changes.

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PROGRESS 2017

14 GETTING INTO

SNOW BUSINESS The elevation of Arizona Snowbowl as a ski destination and the ongoing rise of snowplay have led to new ideas to improve traffic and the experience, while some businesses have formed to help accommodate. We look at some of the new plans.

16 PAINT IT GREEN

An economic impact study by the Flagstaff Arts Council is opening up to demonstrate what creative endeavors can do for the city and region.

18 HITTING HOME

We speak with Lisa Paffrath, president of the board for the Northern Arizona Association of Realtors, about the big changes on the real estate front, a major sector and area of interest in Flagstaff.

22 GETTING ON THE BUS

Mountain Line remains on the forefront of Flagstaff’s alternative transportation offerings, making connectivity between campus, town and beyond.

FROM THE

Editor

T

o say that Flagstaff as a town is changing before our eyes is a grand understatement. Everywhere one looks, the signs of a construction boom are seen from east to west and north to south. On the east, we have the new Harkins Theatres this year, but we also have development near the Country Club exit. Move a little farther down Route 66, and cross paths with Trax, the new commercial development that includes the recently opened Texas Roadhouse. Head downtown and the Marriott and the Hub are on the rise.

Northern Arizona University is a whole other story, with major road construction and building development that has been ongoing for a number of years. The growth continues to the west, with off-campus student housing and apartments, along with other residential projects filling in the once-undeveloped areas.

In 2000, Flagstaff’s population was 53,000. Now, it’s past 70,000 people, and that doesn’t count the major growth of the student population at Northern Arizona University. This has brought some bustle to the community—and, it must be said, traffic woes. While some growth, population increase and certain projects have been met with resistance, it’s clear that Flagstaff has found itself a desirable town for the new residents, students and visitors alike.

For these reasons, the Arizona Daily Sun decided in 2016 to launch this new annual magazine—a report of sorts called Progress.

We plan to continue publishing it once a year in April. And from the

looks of the town, keeping up with our progress will a challenge.

However, we’ll do our best to look at the different sectors that drive our community and make it a robust place to live. We’re featuring information on the massive visitation at Grand Canyon. We’re also talking to The Greater Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce CEO and President Julie Pastrick about the big changes in our mountain town. A visit to Northern Arizona University is always a must, and we’ll see how numbers are growing.

Also, this year, big news came with development on the west side of town, and we’ll explore the different projects. Snowplay has become a big draw and a problem to solve with traffic and amenities, which makes it the prominent story on the county level.

Checking in with real estate, the arts sector and transportation also make our list this time—even though we know these are just a few snapshots of the big changes under way. Here’s hoping for a great 2017 and beyond.

Seth Muller

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2017 PROGRESS

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Grand Canyon Goes …

As the

… So g oes Fl a g s ta ff, W h ic h i s Loo k i n g Towa rd A n ot h e r Ro b u s t Eco n o m ic Yea r | B y th e Staff

A

s the Grand Canyon goes, so goes Flagstaff— and the direction is all upward for the next few years. The centennial celebration in 2016 for the National Park Service pushed visitation at the Grand Canyon over six million just a year after it had finally broken through the five million visitor mark. So, in Flagstaff, BBB tax receipts leaped 13.6 percent in FY 2016 and general sales taxes were up 7.4 percent.

With the Grand Canyon itself celebrating a hundred years as a national park in 2019, all projections are for continued growth in visitors to the park and hospitality spending in Flagstaff—as long as low gasoline prices and low interest rates nationally keep new mortgages and vacations affordable.

Other positive economic factors for Flagstaff include continued enrollment growth at Northern Arizona University and a longer ski season at Snowbowl.

Roiling the city and state economy this year, however, is the 25 percent jump in the minimum wage to $10 as of Jan. 1, and on its way to $11 in Flagstaff to start 2018. By 2021, barring a legal challenge or being overturned at the polls, it will be $15 in the city versus $12 everywhere else in the state, and employers as well as employees are beginning to recalibrate their financial game plans.

There is also uncertainty on the federal spending front, and that could trickle down to Flagstaff. Federal agencies like the U.S. Forest Service, USGS and Department of the Interior (which runs national parks) could see budget cuts that reduce jobs, and federal grants to NAU researchers on climate change and related fields could dry up.

Here’s a further look at Flagstaff’s key economic indicators for 2017:

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PROGRESS 2017

POPULATION As expected, Flagstaff’s mid-decade census estimate topped 70,000, putting the 2015 population at 70,320 or up by 6.7 percent in just five years. That is only slightly behind Arizona’s mid-decade growth rate of 6.8 percent.

JOBS Despite the closure in 2015 of the Walgreens Distribution Center and the loss of its 320 jobs, Coconino County has not seen a rise in the jobless rate (the rate for Flagstaff alone is not available). The jobless in January 2017 was 5.5 percent, down from 6.5 percent a year ago and 2 percentage points lower than in 2015. That’s still higher than the Arizona and U.S. unemployment rates, but the major employers in Flagstaff like FMC, W.L. Gore, NAU, FUSD, and city and county governments have stable to growing workforce levels.

CITY TAX REVENUES With hospitality and general sales tax receipts growing, the city council can afford to keep property taxes flat if it chooses. Projections on taxes are running $2 million ahead of estimates through June 30, which has cleared the way for continued employee raises that recirculate in the economy. City voters renewed the Mountain Line bus tax in November and approved a new courthouse bond, a pattern of supporting tax hikes that should make FUSD optimistic when its 15 percent budget override comes up for renewal next year. A state education funding settlement approved by voters last May will pump an additional 8 percent a year in state funding into public schools for the next 10 years.

MAJOR PROJECTS Road resurfacing and reconstruction in the city and county continue at an accelerated pace thanks to special sales taxes passed by voters in 2014. A new Marriott hotel is going up downtown, a likely consequence of the visitation boom at the Grand Canyon. And there are plans on the books for new hotels along Route 66 and at Country Club.

Construction of the new city public works yard is due to start this year, while the new city/county courthouse will likely start construction in 2018.

TOURISM The downtown survived a winter without a Dew Downtown ski and snowboard festival and did not appear to miss a beat, thanks to a robust skiing and snowplay season. The summer and fall seasons are again likely to see surges due to Grand Canyon’s higher profile online—other gateway cities like Williams and Page are also seeing record years. Airbnb vacation rentals in Flagstaff are on the rise, based on online listings, and a potential mega-resort in Tusayan that could pose competition for Flagstaff hoteliers is mired in Forest Service red tape for at least several years.

HOUSING MARKET Single-family housing prices in Flagstaff have nearly recovered their pre-recession highs, aided in part by high demand driven by a short supply of new workforce housing. The housing construction industry is expected to start catching up in 2017 now that steady population growth is established and the foreclosure market has all but disappeared. New units by the dozens are going up at the Presidio and in Doney Park, with another subdivision approved at Woody Mountain Road.

As for the rental market, at least four studentoriented apartment complexes are either under construction or due to start in 2017 as NAU’s Mountain Campus enrollment hits 22,000 on its way to 25,000 by 2025—or sooner. Neighborhood parking and traffic concerns dog at least two of them—the Hub and The Standard—setting the stage for a possible city council rewrite of the rental housing code.

to fill in. The churn in businesses downtown and in Southside continues, but no storefront remains vacant for very long amid continuing tourism and NAU growth.

OTHER BIG CHANGES Nestle-Purina has put funding into a study to reduce plant odor that affects east Flagstaff, where the auto mall continues to add dealerships. Homegrown Senestech has raised $30 million at its first public stock offering and plans to expand its research and production at the Flagstaff Accelerator. The forest products industry has yet to take off as the 4FRI project remains in low gear, while health care may see a pause as federal changes to Obamacare and the insurance markets are worked out in Washington.

Employees of major Flagstaff employers and other commuters looking for a second airline at Pulliam still have hope—the city’s $800,000 startup recruitment grant has been extended a third time.

THE BOTTOM LINE If Flagstaff can phase in the new higher minimum wage over five years instead of seeing it leap to $12 this July, all signs point to not just another robust economic year but also two more through the Grand Canyon Centennial in 2019. P

PRIVATE BUSINESS The past year saw Harkins open its new Flagstaff cineplex at the mall, to be followed by the DMV occupying the old Harkins quarters on University, then the renovation of the DMV site on South Milton into stores and apartments. The Haggen Foods and Ashley Furniture storefronts remain vacant, but the shopping, dining and lodging complex at the foot of Fourth Street known as The Trax is continuing

2017 PROGRESS

7

A

Early Construction at the downtown Marriott.

Staff Photo.

A

Landmark Year

Greater Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce Celebrates a Big Time of Growth

By Seth Muller

T

he staff of the Greater Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce has taken notice of Flagstaff’s big gains in many economic centers. It turns out that 2016 was a significant year in the town’s commercial development and growth. In this major boom time, we asked some questions of President and CEO Julie Pastrick about the gains and all the forward momentum that’s happening in our mountain town.

Seth Muller: How would you describe the past year of economic growth and development in Flagstaff? What have been some of the highlights of this growth and what sectors have seen the strongest surge? How does this compare to 2016?

Julie Pastrick: In many respects, we can say 2016 was a huge growth year for Flagstaff. More development projects began in 2016 than anyone I’ve talked to can remember. Sure, Flagstaff grows, but not at the pace we are right now. There are 32 residential projects under construction or approved for construction creating almost 2,700 new lots, units or rooms. That is a lot of residential construction that could fill needs for both workforce and student housing.

In the commercial arena, six hotels, restaurants and gas stations are under construction now or approved to be built.

When you see commercial activity like this, it bodes well for Flagstaff’s quality of living and for tourism. With visitation numbers already higher this year than during the same time in 2016, we see business owners making sound expansion decisions to serve our market well. We’re fortunate to have four seasons in Flagstaff for enjoyment of many types of outdoor recreation.

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PROGRESS 2017

SM: What are some of the current factors or influencing trends that are impacting the local economy? Are there any surprising trends or changes in the past year you have noticed?

JP: Consumer confidence is up! That means spending on both hard and soft goods increases and businesses benefit. Our state unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since 2008. And our economic policies are more business-friendly, minimizing the costs of doing business. We have recovered all of the jobs lost in the recession and look ahead to a continuing economic uptick in Flagstaff as well as statewide.

Though not surprising, it is quite noticeable that Northern Arizona Healthcare has a firm hold on quality of life for all residents in the Northland. Not only are they one of the largest employers in the region, but their delivery of high quality healthcare keeps getting better by the day as they expand services and implement new technologies. Recently, Guardian Air completed construction on its impressive new location on McMillan Mesa. Guardian and other medical based companies are taking advantage of the good opportunity to locate in close proximity to Flagstaff Medical Center in order to provide outpatient services.

Another segment of our market that has grown is manufacturing. Made in Flagstaff is really real! Our brewery industry took off years ago and hasn’t lost any steam at all. With more than six prominent brewers creating great beers, many of whom have distribution contracts throughout the state, we celebrate the growth of this industry and its impact on our community’s identity. In addition, Nestlé Purina is in the first phase of a two phase odor abatement project. SCA Tissue continues to emphasize efficiencies with their machinery to boost production of their paper products. JoyCone acquired two competing businesses and is now the largest ice cream cone manufacturer in the world, growing from two to four plants.

W.L. Gore, our iconic medical device manufacturer, employs 2,000 in Flagstaff and celebrates its 50-year anniversary in this great mountain town. Who would have guessed that Bill and Vieve Gore’s dream to begin manufacturing operations in such a

small, small town back in 1967 could grow to such an impactful and life changing international corporation.

SM: Tourism and the hospitality industry appear to be growing extensively, as seen by the Marriott arriving downtown and the added hotels and restaurants across Flagstaff. What are the Chamber’s goals to support and grow this sector of our economy?

JP: The Chamber partners with the Flagstaff Convention and Visitors Bureau in many ways on visibility for Flagstaff and promoting our community. Just recently, I attended with Heidi Hansen, Economic Vitality Director, and Barney Helmick, Airport Manager, an Airline Service Conference, in Scottsdale.

We met with airline executives to discuss bringing a second airliner to serve Flagstaff and all of northern Arizona. A second carrier out of Flagstaff’s Pulliam Airport that provided flights to valued destinations other than just Phoenix would be a huge economic boost to our local economy—bringing in more tourists and providing more options and convenience for leisure and business travelers.

Prior to the November 2016 election and after the new wage laws passed at the ballot, the Chamber engaged with dozens and dozens of hospitality based businesses and small/large businesses of all kinds about the pros and cons of a $15 wage law.

The bottom line though is that community conversation has been robust through many meetings convened by the Chamber focusing on business education regarding efficiencies, hiring smart, how to report on the new Paid Time Off requirement in the State’s $12 wage law, and assessment of ways to manage business in the new increased wage environment.

One thing is sure: most small businesses and nonprofits are affected by the wage laws whether in child care, education, hospitality, accounting, legal, retail, services for the developmentally disabled and large scale employers. The Chamber will continue to survey needs and provide hands on education and other tools for business success.

SM: Another big change downtown is the construction and planned opening of The Hub, which will make prominent the increase of size and student population of Northern Arizona University. How do you see Flagstaff adapting to this economic change of a growing student body and a more visible and connective idea of it being a university town?

JP: NAU is a huge local and statewide economic engine. We are so fortunate to live in a university town and reap the benefits from the campus employment and student population, cultural and educational opportunities, and great athletic events. The student numbers haven’t exploded overnight, but rather have increased at a manageable pace along with the great brick and mortar expansions on campus. The Aquatic and Tennis complex, the Science Building, Health and Wellness Center and many other new buildings have elevated NAU’s appeal to both in-state and international students for a variety of educational disciplines. Our community and NAU are intrinsically linked.

When NAU grows, so does the economy. P

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2017 PROGRESS

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University in

EXPANSION Northern Arizona University Continues to Break Enrollment Records

By Corina Vanek and Suzanne Adams-Ockrassa

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PROGRESS 2017

I

n another consecutive record-breaking year, Northern Arizona University increased its enrollment on the Flagstaff campus to 22,134 students, enrolling 30,368 students overall in the fall semester of 2016. The freshman class alone increased 11 percent to 5,502 students entering NAU in the fall of 2016. About 1,125 students transferred to the university from other institutions at the beginning of the school year.

At NAU President Rita Cheng’s campus forum, Cheng said the university is on track to meet its 2025 enrollment goal of 34,909 students. NAU also saw an increase in international students coming to the university and students studying abroad, Cheng said. In 2015, NAU had 1,239 students from countries across the world come to the university. In 2016, that number increased to 1,291 students. The number of students

loft and an academic success center. In addition, an on-site studying abroad increased from 717 in 2015 to 863 in 2016. parking garage will be built and will add about 700 on-campus The university also plans to change its honors program parking spaces. With the new garage, into an honors college in the fall. on campus parking will total 9,500 Students will pay an extra fee in their spaces. tuition to support the new college.

Of those enrolled, four on the Cheng said NAU also plans to hire Flagstaff campus and 14 universityadditional professors, investing new wide are recipients of Deferred Action infrastructure and provide more services to students and staff in the for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). In the midst of the presidential election and new year. Tuition and fees remain the the threat that the program might be university’s single largest source of dissolved, both NAU President Rita income, and were expected to bring Cheng and the university’s Faculty the university about $350 million Senate took steps to ensure recipients of in the 2016-2017 school year, before the program would continue to receive adjusting for financial aid provided by benefits and protections on campus, the university. even if the program is eliminated.

To accommodate a growing Last year, Northern Arizona population, the university, in a University opened two new buildings partnership with American Campus costing a total of $119.4 million, despite Communities, broke ground on a new, deferring other projects to help balance on-campus residence hall scheduled the budget. The new buildings were to open in the 2017-2018 school year.

The residence hall, called SkyView, begun before a $17.3 million budget NAU President Rita Cheng cut in 2015. At the time NAU President will increase the total number of onRita Cheng said the university had deferred maintenance needs campus beds to 9,774. The complex will house 626 students in totaling $112 million, only $3 million of which was funded. P 163 housing units. SkyView boasts private study rooms, a study

2017 PROGRESS

11

West Side Story

Flagstaff Experiences Notable Development in the Western Part of Town

By Corina Vanek

B

uilding skeletons took shape on the west side of Flagstaff in 2016, as the area prepared for an influx of even more new homes to be built in the future.

On the west side of Milton Road, two apartment complexes took shape over the course of the year, with more preparing to be built, and the Flagstaff City Council approved another development of 1,300 homes near Route 66 and Woody Mountain Road.

Chason Affinity Companies, a New York- based developer, is developing two complexes in the Woodlands Village neighborhood, including one that is already accepting tenants.

The Mountain Trail Apartments, located on Forest Meadows Street and Highland Mesa Road, will contain 160 apartment units with a variety of floor plans. Rent for a two-bedroom apartment begins at $1,575. Construction on the complex is scheduled to be completed in the next month, but finished buildings began leasing in January, Chason CEO Jeff Birtch said last year.

The second Chason development, called Trailside Apartments, began construction in March and is expected to open for renters by September of 2018, Birtch said. The complex, which will be located on University Heights Drive and Beulah Blvd., will contain 111 units.

In between the two, Capstone Collegiate Communities is building a 230-unit complex designed for Northern Arizona University students. The development, called Fremont

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PROGRESS 2017

Station, is located on Forest Meadows across the street from Kohl’s, and will contain apartments ranging from one to four bedrooms and townhouses containing four or five bedrooms, John Acken, the executive vice president for the Alabamabased Capstone. That complex has already started leasing for fall of 2017, and construction is scheduled to be finished over the summer.

Farther west on Route 66, the development of 1,300 homes, known as Timber Sky was approved for construction in November. The project will be developed by Vintage Partners, biggest single player in Flagstaff developments. Vintage was also involved with moving the Harkins Theatres to the new location near the mall, and relocating Arizona Department of Transportation services to the old Harkins building in Woodlands Village. Once ADOT’s services have moved, the ADOT building on Milton is scheduled to become another housing complex.

Timber Sky will contain 1,300 housing units, including single-family homes, condominiums and townhomes. Due to the proximity to the Naval Observatory, Vintage worked with the city and the observatory to create a lighting code for the subdivision that will be more stringent than required by the underlying lighting zoning. Vintage has also offered 100 units to be permanently affordable housing, which is below the city’s threshold of 10 percent to qualify for incentives, like higher density. P

W. L. Gore & Associates

CELEBRATES

50 YEARS in Flagstaff

When W. L. Gore & Associates, Inc. (Gore) established roots in Flagstaff in 1967, the location could best be described as a small, wonderfully scenic mountain town. Separated from other communities by canyons, peaks and ponderosa pine forests, its population at the time was roughly 20,000, and despite its natural beauty, big businesses were not competing for space. So what made Flagstaff a prime location for growing Gore’s business?

It’s a topic Bob Gore touches on in his book, The Early Days of W. L. Gore & Associates, sharing his parents and company founders — Bill and Vieve Gore’s — enthusiasm for the picturesque location: “One could wonder why any manufacturing operation would be set up in 1967 in Flagstaff, Arizona, so far away from customers, sources of raw materials, and our eastern support.

Only Bill Gore could give enthusiastic reasons for such a remote location. For example, it was on Rt. 66, connecting east to west. The railroad went through Flagstaff directly to Los Angeles, ‘just an overnight trip,’ he said. The small airport in Flagstaff ‘will surely expand.’ Perhaps more importantly in his mind was his and Vieve’s own western heritage: ‘There are beautiful ponderosa pine forests, white-capped mountains, and it is small enough to be a great place to raise a family.”

Fifty years later, there is no questioning those instincts, as Flagstaff is now home to roughly 2,000 Associates across 11 plants, making up Gore’s thriving Medical Products Division headquarters. Throughout this year, the global material science company is commemorating its golden anniversary in Flagstaff, reflecting on Gore’s rich history and promising future.

Gore opened its first plant in Flagstaff in 1967 to manufacture electronic products for the computer and aerospace industries. In the 1970s, the focus shifted to the medical industry, with Gore’s first medical product, a vascular graft that entered the market in 1975. Since then, Flagstaff has been the birthplace of advanced treatment options for a variety of complex medical conditions, including heart defects, aortic aneurysms and peripheral artery disease, among others. And the location remains the home base of Gore’s global Medical Products Division.

While Flagstaff has largely retained its small-town feel, the location has graduated to city status with around 70,000 residents now calling it home.

Gore is the city’s largest private employer and a significant presence in the community, with donations in Flagstaff and Associates’ volunteer time accounting for an estimated $600,000 (including company-matched dollars) and 50,000 hours contributed to non-profit organizations annually.

“On a larger scale, we’ve made it possible for doctors around the world to implant more than 40 million life-improving devices,” said divisional leader David Abeyta. “We are proud of our impact on lives and in our community.”

The Mount Elden facility on Fourth Street was the first Gore plant established in Flagstaff. Company co-founder, Vieve Gore, had a love for the mature ponderosa pine trees and that dictated the footprint of the building and parking lots.

In the last four decades, physicians have implanted more than 40 million life-enhancing Gore medical products, such as the Conformable GORE® TAG® Thoracic Device This device is used for treating aneurysms near the heart, when an unhealthy, thinning, bulging vessel is at risk for rupture.

About W. L. Gore & Associates W. L. Gore & Associates is a global materials science company dedicated to transforming industries and improving lives. Founded in 1958, Gore has built a reputation for solving complex technical challenges in the most demanding environments — from revolutionizing the outerwear industry with GORE-TEX® fabric to creating medical devices that improve and save lives to enabling new levels of performance in the aerospace, pharmaceutical and mobile electronics markets, among other industries. The company is also known for its strong, team-oriented culture and continued recognition from the Great Place to Work® Institute. Headquartered in Newark, Del., Gore employs approximately 10,000 Associates and generates annual revenues that exceed $3 billion. www.gore.com

Celebrating

Gore is planning 50th anniversary public activities to coincide with the September Flagstaff Festival of Science. Learn more about the products and lives that have been saved at goremedical.com.

GORE®, GORE-TEX®, TAG®, and designs are trademarks of W. L. Gore & Associates. ©2017 W. L. Gore & Associates, Inc. AW0395-EN2 APRIL 2017

2017 PROGRESS

13

Powder Power The Expansive Growth of Snowplay and Winter Recreation Could Bring Big Changes

By Emer y Cowan

F

lagstaff has seen 94 inches of snow this winter, a tad below average for an overall winter but enough to draw thousands of visitors to seek snowplay opportunities along the Highway 180 corridor north of the city. The traffic congestion caused by cars streaming into the corridor and parking along the sides of the road didn’t go unnoticed by local officials and businesses that ramped up several strategies to combat the gridlock.

This page: Flagstaff Nordic Village (top), Fort Tuthill Snowplay Area (lower left) and Arizona Snowbowl's new quad lift. Staff photos.

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PROGRESS 2017

A newly-reconvened winter recreation task force rolled out an updated winter snowplay map and an advertising campaign about responsible snowplay while local recreation businesses staggered their operating hours. Coconino County Supervisor Art Babbott started up a parallel effort to create snowplay traffic solutions, which contemplates opening up a Forest Service road as an alternate corridor exit route and charging user fees to support more parking enforcement and improvements along the highway.

Coconino County supervisors also approved the establishment of a new snowplay business at Fort Tuthill County Park. Flagstaff Snow Park created opened its doors in December with several sledding runs and inner tube rentals for visitors. In the months since, the business has seen more than 18,000 visitors, according to the county’s parks and recreation department.

For the second year in a row, the Mountain Line partnered with Arizona Snowbowl to provide bus service to the ski

2

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destination on select weekends over the winter. The response took a major leap over last year with 8,400 riders this season compared to last year’s 2,500.

Arizona Snowbowl has made several major improvements to its mountain, with two new ski lifts over the past two years.

The newest addition, the six-person Grand Canyon Lift is Snowbowl’s first high speed lift. The new Humphreys Peak Quad which was built in the fall of 2015, was Snowbowl’s first new lift in three decades. The ski area also has expanded its manmade snowmaking operations, a practice that has allowed the mountain to open earlier and offer a more consistent season. Snowbowl is on track to have its longest season yet this year.

The ski locale’s investments have benefitted the local economy as well, with several ski-related business owners attributing at least part of their upward trends in business to Snowbowl’s earlier opening date and more consistent season.

“The snowmaking and the earlier opening provides us with a guaranteed Christmas season, and a guaranteed Thanksgiving season,” Brian Dierker, the owner of Humphrey Summit Ski told the Arizona Daily Sun in December. The city of Flagstaff’s retail sales tax and bed, board and beverage tax receipts for the months of November through March have also climbed steadily over the last four years. The BBB taxes collected between December 2015 and March 2016 were 25 percent higher than those collected over the same period in 2012.

Other changes are afoot in the Highway 180 corridor with Babbitt Ranches taking over management of Wing Mountain snowplay area and making improvements to the Arizona Nordic Village, formerly the Flagstaff Nordic Center, which it purchased in 2015. In announcing the sale, the center said an expansion of operations for year-round adventures is part of its future plans. P

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2017 PROGRESS

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This page: Hullabaloo.

Next page: Rio de Rainbow bridge project (top) and the Telepoem Booth (bottom).

Green Painting It

A

rt. Music. Theatre. Dance. Literature. Film. Culture.

The creative pursuits in Flagstaff enrich and deepen the quality of life for this mountain town. The festivals and the exhibitions and productions blend with locally celebrated and even internationally renowned works. However, the creative forces of Flagstaff also have been identified as a major economic generator—that’s only poised to grow.

In 2012, a study looked at the economic impact of the arts locally for a span of time in 2010-2011. The Flagstaff Arts Council collected data from 37 local non-profit organizations and 1,332 audience members at cultural events like Flagstaff Symphony concerts and NAU Art Museum exhibitions. Using the Americans for the Arts model, it determined these sectors to be a compelling driver of the annual budget to the tune of investing $73 million in direct expenses and $7.6 million in tax revenue for Arizona.

Now, the Arts Council is back with a newer study that will conclude later in the year, and the hope is to get and even sharper picture of how the arts arena is a contributor to the local budget.

“The landscape has changed considerably,” Arts Council Executive Director JT Tannous said about the two studies. “The economy has come out of recession, but the arts sector has not fully recovered. State funding for the arts is still far below where

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How the Arts Sector is Boosting the Flagstaff Economy

By Seth Muller

the Arizona Commission on the Arts was in 2006, and there is no plan in place to get them back—not even close. Even city funding in Flagstaff, which is stronger than in most nearby communities, had been flat for 10 years until it increased in 2016-17. So I imagine the study will tell us something about all that, but what I hope to see is less important than the reality.”

He added, “The study will be very similar to the last in terms of methodology. For the most part we’re interested in clean comparisons with the prior study. Last time, we surveyed 1,132 audience members at events in 2011. This time, we surveyed over 3,000 audience members at events in 2016.”

The hope is that the extensive and robust study will become one chapter of the bigger story of the way arts advances the community. “Whatever the result, it’s one of many ways to tell the story about the impact of the arts … (the study) tells us what kind of economic return we can expect as a community when we invest in arts and science programs and venues,” Tannous said.

Flagstaff, according to many within the arts, has continued to thrive on the artistic front despite economic challenges of the past recession and the slow-to-return funding. As Tannous noted, one only has to look at the calendar. “When I first arrived, there were quiet weekends

once a month and in a lot of the winter. Now, there are an overwhelming number of concerts, events, festivals and cultural activities every weekend in Flagstaff.”

He continued, “The demand for quality programming is increasing, and the sector has responded. The natural projection forward is that Flagstaff needs high quality venues to accommodate the demand. I think in the next few years we’ll see a new cultural venue as a major addition to our rich community.”

Along with what’s happening at the Arts Council and a wide variety of regional nonprofits, the city of Flagstaff has been contributing to the art scene—namely through its Beautification and Public Arts Commission. It receives its money from BBB taxes, short for “bed, board and booze.”

“We’re really excited about our new, soon to be printed Public Art map,” said Mark Di Lucido, a project manager with the city who works with the BPAC commission. The hope is the map will be a way to engage with visitors and residents alike and strengthen the connection and value of the public art projects. “The map is arguably the city’s most popular—the last one was published six years ago and had a printing run of 10,000.”

He added, “In six years we added a lot of Public Art so we think it’s time for the update. We’re also planning a smart phone version; after all, this is the City of Innovation! We’ll begin that one after the print version is out.”

BPAC also has been involved in funding a variety of different projects in the past year. The Rio de Rainbow mosaic project along Thorpe Road, where it crosses the Rio, is one of the more recent prominent additions. “The artist started the project with a Beautification-in-Action grant and is using Go Fund Me to secure funding to complete it, hint, hint,” Mark Di Lucido added.

“Less visible, but no less successful, is the Telepoem Booth.

After its debut outside of Macy’s, the artist moved it inside to the Old Town Shops where it continues to sling poetry via a period rotary phone and booth,” he said.

A larger budget public art project, the Children’s Garden sculpture, is about to have potential designs selected by BPAC This project is partnership between the Jack’s Little Brother (JLB) non-profit and the city. The JLB has already funded and built the Garden in Foxglenn Park. “We hope to have the sculpture installed this fall,” Mark Di Lucido said.

The growth in public art—fueled directly by a special tax— that helps create fuller value to the community joins the other economic drivers of the arts to fuel a more lively city that’s diverse, imaginative and prosperous. P

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Hitting

HOME A Look at the Flagstaff Real Estate Market Trends and Year-Over-Year Changes By the Staff

W

ith real estate such a major economic driver and indicator in Flagstaff, we took the time to ask questions of Lisa Paffrath, the current president of the board for the Northern Arizona Association of Realtors, to get the latest and most in-depth information about what’s happening in the market—and what to expect for the rest of 2017.

Progress Magazine: Can you take a moment to summarize what happened with the real estate market in Flagstaff in 2016? What were some of the big trends and stories? What changed between 2015 and 2016?

Lisa Paffrath: 2016 was a very active year for real estate here in Flagstaff. Though we saw a two percent decrease in homes being listed in 2016 over 2015, there was an increase in the average sales price of 6 percent, whereas the average home sold in 2015 for $307,042 and in 2016 we saw $325,882. These figures address mobile, manufactured, town homes as well as single family residences. There was also an increase in the total properties that sold in 2016, up 7 percent from 2015. We also saw a slight change in the number of days a home was on the market before selling—107 days in 2016 compared to 111 days in 2015.

Definitely the biggest story to hit the industry was the mortgage interest rate increase. The Federal Reserve increased its key interest rate by .25% in December of 2016, only the second increase in the last 10 years. Though this interest rate increase does not directly affect mortgage interest rates—mortgage-backed securities are directly linked to the mortgage interest rate—it did slightly increase the average mortgage interest rate and cause a flurry of activity in our marketplace. With another increase in the first quarter of 2017, and another expected later in 2017, this could increase mortgage interest rates again.

PM: What are the overall trends and indicators shaping up for the prime selling season for 2017? How do those indicators compare to last year? Are we looking more Lisa Paffrath ›

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Images from local homes. Staff photos.

at a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?

LP: Interest rates are again at the forefront for most buyers. It doesn’t take much research online or listening to everyday news for a buyer who’s deciding on purchasing a home to know that now is a much better time to buy than to wait for housing prices to go down. Historically, it is better to purchase when rates are low, even if home prices are increasing. One has to consider the amount of interest over the length of the loan and higher mortgage interest rates will, in the long run, cost the consumer more.

So far, 2017 has been extremely active in the Flagstaff market.

We are seeing an increase in homes that are coming on the market and most going under contract in less than 30 days. Looking forward, if interest rates continue the slow ascent in 2017 without any major surprises, this year should be comparable to 2016 …

2017 will still be a Seller’s market. We saw an increase in values in Flagstaff at 6 percent overall in 2016. Home values are still increasing , with first quarter of 2017 sales price in Flagstaff averaging $355,309. For many homes in Flagstaff that were under water during the Great Recession of 2007-2013, the possibility of actually being able to sell your home for what you purchased it for or at a profit is promising for this year.

However, it is also a buyer’s market when you consider we still have historically low interest rates available to purchase a home.

The issue I do see again is inventory availability to meet the demand we have here in Flagstaff.

PM: How much new construction new home sales are we seeing in the market this year compared to the last one or

two years? Up, down or about the same? Will this have any influence on the market?

LP: In the last two years we have seen 43 homes sell that were new construction throughout Flagstaff. In comparison, there are currently 66 new construction homes available for sale under $600,000 as of today. We will also see these numbers increase as two other projects come online here in the next 24 months, one off Lone Tree and another off Woody Mountain Road.

As with new commercial construction in an area, it shows the health of any city. New residential construction will hopefully attract additional subdivision projects in the future. Time will be the tell-tale on what the influence will be on the market. Will Flagstaff finally be able to meet the supply and demand issue?

Hopefully then we will see a stabilization of the market. I doubt, unfortunately, that any additional building will have an impact on affordable housing, at least not for the foreseeable future.

PM: Home ownership or rental affordability appears to be an ongoing challenge for Flagstaff. Do you foresee any changes on the horizon (including finance programs, changes in FHA lending, interest rates, housing projects, an increase in student housing) that could help with this issue?

LP: This is a really tough issue that may never be resolved for Flagstaff … We have a very small percentage of affordable housing here in Flagstaff already with the Land Trust program the city created over a decade ago. Unfortunately, this may never be resolved. It’s about supply and demand. We surely do have the

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demand. But in a city that is basically landlocked by federal land, how can the city make land available, that is inexpensive, to create new construction that is affordable. I believe the only way we can truly create affordable housing is to look to areas within a 30-minute drive of Flagstaff where housing can be built more affordably. But as long as there is a huge demand for what Flagstaff has to offer, the chance of creating housing that is affordable for the work force here is always going to be a challenge.

However, if more high density housing is built within the city in areas that need to be revitalized, this could be a possibility. Good example is the Hub. Whether you love it or hate it, it is a form of new urbanism that is being embraced by Millennials throughout the country. As more and more people look to walk and bike rather than get in a car, the demand for housing that is close to everything in Flagstaff will be needed. This could be a way to resolve affordable housing, especially for the younger buyer. But it would need to be several projects such as the Hub to help alleviate the problem of affordable housing and the supply and demand issue that Flagstaff has.

PM: Has there been any growth or interest in green or environmentally friendly homes in the market? How has that changed in recent years?

LP: To be ‘green’ as we say can mean two different things when it comes to real estate. Are we talking about being off the grid with solar and wind for electricity? Or just a home that meets the criteria of energy conservation with the HERS or LEEDS certification? If it’s being completely off the grid, the issue for most home buyers is the availability of financing. Since there is so little that is built this way, there are no comparable properties for the lender to consider and whether or not they will lend on it.

So though this would be a very affordable way for an individual to live, there are very few consumers who have the cash to do this outright. So most buyers are unable to go this route.

Of all the homes listed every year, there are only a handful that we see that can boast that they are environmentally friendly. This is sad when you consider we live in an area where solar alone is perfect. Every home in Northern Arizona should have solar panels

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on their roofs. But again it boils down to cost. It costs on average 17 percent more to build green. Though in the long run this saves on costs to heat and cool the home, the bottom line is the added expense. So if the average home in Flagstaff is $355,000, you are looking at an additional $60,350 to make the home green and environmentally friendly. This unfortunately puts a damper on more individuals building or remodeling with green in mind.

PM: If an agent moved to Flagstaff tomorrow and you counseled them, what would be the most important insight you could share about Flagstaff to him or her that speaks to the uniqueness of this market?

LP: Where can you live where you have 300 days of sunshine and millions of acres of open space five minutes in any direction?

Flagstaff! And because of just these two amazing features, more and more people will be attracted to this beautiful area we all get to call home. I would make sure this new agent understood it’s a lifestyle that most buyers that come to Flagstaff and northern Arizona are looking for. That most people that do move here aren’t doing it for a job. They are doing it for their families. What better place to raise a child? They are doing it for a better quality of life. P

LISTENING IN

What are people talking about in your community?

Is it traffic? Taxes? Obamacare?

S

tarting this spring and continuing through the summer, the Arizona Daily Sun will be checking in on communities throughout the region, from Munds Park to Fredonia, from Winslow to Williams.

We’ll provide some history and fun facts, along with profiling your neighbors and community leaders.

Here’s a list of where we’ll be: • • • • • • •

Fort Valley Kachina/Mountainaire Bellemont Page Doney Park Winslow Ash Fork

• • • • • • •

Tusayan/Grand Canyon Fredonia/Jacob Lake Tuba City Williams Blue Ridge/Forest Lakes Mormon Lake Munds Park

Look for the Listening In series each Sunday exclusively in the 2017 PROGRESS

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Getting on the

BUS

Mountain Line Transit Continues Growth and Service By the Staff

T

he Mountain Line bus system—run by the Northern Arizona Intergovernmental Public Transportation Authority, or NAIPTA—continues to hum along with ridership, funding and a strong community support and growth.

Although not everyone has used Mountain Line to get around, the sight of the light blue buses with the silhouette of a cougar in full run plastered on the sides is one nearly every Flagstaff resident should recognize. The system runs from around 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. weekdays, includes a weekend schedule and features nine different routes that service the city and the Northern Arizona University campus.

The NAU route is known as Mountain Link and it has become a crucial line for students, faculty and university employees to get onto and around campus. The bus saves them the $400 or more for a university parking permit (when factoring the academic calendar, the bus is cheaper) and hassle of finding a space.

College students pay $239 for an annual pass, or can pay $99 a semester. On the daily level, a $1.25 fare gets a rider one trip and $2.50 covers a day pass. A 30-day pass is $37 on first purchase and $34 to reload.

Mountain Line also has become a special events booster, providing rides out to the county fair and—as seen this week— running free bus service to get people to and from downtown for the New Year’s Eve celebrations until 1 a.m. And, as noted in the snowplay story, has assisted with a shuttle to Snowbowl to help reduce traffic.

The transit system is not only about convenience and providing a friendly lift. Marketing manager Jacki Lenners pointed out that Mountain Line has turned into a major economic generator and supporter of local commerce.

“We are able to fill in that gap with transportation,” Lenners said in a past interview. “So, if you have employees who don’t have another way to get to work, we are that reliable system to get people around town. We do work with several organizations where an employer buys passes for all of their employees, known as the EcoPASS … With NAU, there are employees who don’t want to buy a parking pass and parking is so limited on campus.”

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Here are some highlights of Mountain Line and NAIPTA from the past year: • Proposition 411: In November 2016, Flagstaff voters passed Proposition 411 at a 71 percent approval rating, renewing Mountain Line’s existing transit tax through 2030.

• CCC Pilot Pass Program: In August 2016, NAIPTA launched a Pilot Pass Program with Coconino Community College, wherein every CCC student and staff member received a free Mountain Line pass. The program was aimed at battling the parking issues at CCC and increasing transit ridership. After the first semester, the results were: CCC passes were used 25,099 times; all routes were used, including 159 unique stops (96 percent of the system); and the Routes 4 and 14 stops on Lone Tree Road in front of CCC saw a combined 39 percent increase in ridership over the same period in 2015.

Mountain Express: Mountain Line and Arizona Snowbowl entered into the second year of Mountain Express service between downtown Flagstaff and Hart Prairie Lodge.

The number of service days nearly doubled over the inaugural year, and ridership increased dramatically.

Ridership: Mountain Line made it to the million-trip mark for Fiscal Year 2017 on December 14, 2016, marking the earliest date in a fiscal year it’s ever reached that milestone. The bus service is on track to hit two million trips in a year for the first time ever. P

If the Flagstaff economy was a car

Tourism generates: Annual tax savings of $1,200 for every Arizona household.

— Arizona Office of Tourism

Nearly 7,500 jobs in Flagstaff.

— Northern Arizona University

$2.3 million to keep our parks beautiful.

— City of Flagstaff

tourism would be the wheels

i t a li t y EconomDiivcisV io n C I T Y

Flagstaff Airport ALWAYS FLY FLAGSTAFF FIRST! Enjoy free parking and WiFi, Air Café and larger planes with First Class seating.

F L A G S T A F F

City of FlagstaffCoconino County Public Library Two Flagstaff and

eleven county locations! Many libraries to serve you with programs and services for children and adults. Training and online resources available.

Flagstaff Convention & Visitors Bureau

Community Investment

Economic Development–Business Attraction, Retention and Expansion services. Community Design & Redevelopment– Beautification, Arts & Science, Community Redevelopment and Heritage Preservation. Coming soon to downtown–Parking Program.

Tourism generates an economic impact of more than $500 million with an annual tax savings of $1,200 for every Arizona household. Tourism also generates 7,500 jobs, $2.3 million to keep our parks beautiful, and allows our Visitor Center located at 1 E. Route 66 to serve visitors year-round.

Enhancing Quality of Life 365 Days a Year FOR ASSISTANCE VISIT:

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chooseflagstaff.com | flagstaffarizona.org | flagstaffpubliclibrary.org

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2017 PROGRESS

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