Kids Corner....17,18,22,23 Storm Ahead In 2023 New Year’s Resolution

from Austin South Asian. January 2023

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19 Austin South Asian | January 2023 Storm Ahead In 2023? 10 Tips To Get The Most Out Of Your Investment

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In the current uncertain situation, Stéphane Monier, CIO of Lombard Odier Private Bank, discusses 10 recommendations for investing in 2023 to achieve maximum returns:

1. A pivot year: look for the inflection point

The tightening of monetary policy in the Western world, amid a global slowdown in economic activity, translates into an unfavorable configuration for risk assets. Recession and further cuts in corporate earnings expectations are the main downside risks for both equities and bonds.

Peak real rates should provide a turning point in the markets. To do so, the Fed will have to interrupt its rate hike cycle as inflation slows and unemployment rises.

“As this inflection point approaches, we will gradually increase risk levels in portfolios by adding more duration in government bonds and gold, as well as some equities and credits,” says Monier.

2. Underweight risk assets for now

Macroeconomic conditions warrant cautious exposure to risky assets, focusing instead on assets that can better withstand the impact of weaker growth or higher rates.

Specifically, this means holding quality equities, government bonds, and investment-grade credit. It also means overweighting cash positions in order to be able to invest as soon as we see opportunities.

3. Going for quality and diversification

In the coming months, we are likely to see new lows in equity markets as high borrowing costs limit the expansion of company multiples and earnings estimates continue to adjust to recessions. Against this backdrop, quality companies with low earnings volatility and a greater ability to defend their margins are good choices. These stocks tend to outperform in recessions or when earnings decline.

In terms of quality sectors, healthcare is notable, as it enjoys high margins and some insulation from inflation, due to its high pricing power and attractive shareholder returns. It is also important to note that its valuations remain undemanding compared to other defensive growth sectors.

4. Asymmetric return profiles

Options strategies, such as put spreads over equity indices, can protect portfolios from declines in the coming months.

For this reason, “at Lombard Odier, we have hedged portfolios throughout 2022 and will continue to manage them tactically depending on market conditions,” says Monier.

5. Seek diversification through alternatives

Given that market conditions will remain relatively challenging, it is advisable to favor resilient hedge fund strategies such as global macro, discretionary, and quantitative. These should provide diversification, as they tend to benefit from performance dispersion across asset classes and regions. Their typically convex profiles, designed to perform over more extreme periods, should benefit from the volatile environment with limited correlation to underlying markets. Some relative value strategies should also offer attractive returns once rates stabilize. 6. Dollar strength will continue

The strength of the dollar should continue in the coming months, supported by rate differentials, liquidity tightening, and US trade issues.

Other currencies supported in this context are the Swiss franc and potentially the Japanese yen. Euro and pound sterling should lag as they suffer from more structural issues related to the energy shock. The Chinese yuan should also underperform as the country’s strong balance of payments begins to weaken.

7. Increased attractiveness of gold

For much of 2022, gold prices were caught between support from geopolitical and recession risks, and downward pressures from real rates and the strong dollar. For Monier, “with lower rates, a weaker dollar and a re-opening China, gold prices should rise. In October, we sold short positions on gold as a potential means of bringing our position back to neutral.” 8. High-yield credit increasingly attractive appetite for risky assets will increase. Once highyield credit spreads better reflect the price of a recession and rates have stabilized, carry in this segment will become more attractive than investment grade and sovereign bonds.

portunity 9. Equities as a buying op-

As inflation and the threat of higher rates begin to fade, equity valuations and multiples will benefit. Easing financial conditions will cause investor sentiment to improve and, in turn, price-to-earnings ratios to widen. By mid-2023, earnings and sales expectations will be revised downward, and markets will begin to look ahead to 2024 and the recovery from the cyclical slowdown. This will offer opportunities to add exposure to cyclical and growth names.

10. Emerging market equities and local currency bonds

When the Fed breaks its interest rate hikes cycle as inflation slows and unemployment rises, emerging assets are likely to rally. However, a change in sentiment and growth dynamics is needed. If these catalysts materialize, emerging equities will outperform developed markets and local currency emerging debt will look increasingly attractive.

“While we are already gradually more constructive on emerging local rates, given well-advanced currency cycles, we expect emerging currencies to recover from low levels only when financial conditions improve,” Monier concludes. (Courtesy: https://www.investing. com/)

How Long Does COVID Cough Last And When Should You Worry About Long COVID?

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In many ways, coughs related to COVID are similar to the coughs caused by other viruses, allergies, or other infections that cause inflammation in the airways. Most coughs caused by inflammation related to infection are dry coughs that resolve in four weeks. Other causes, like allergies, may last longer depending on the exposure.

“Inflammation itself can lead to a cough causing fluid production in the airways, and because it causes inflammation in the airways, COVID-19 can cause a cough,” Dr. Leykum explains.

How long does a cough last after COVID? A cough that shows up after COVID typically goes away within four weeks, says Dr. Leykum. And it can last as long as six months after the infection, according to the American Lung Association.

Some risk factors that may make some people more sensitive to coughing include smoking, vaping, pollution, allergies, or asthma.“It can take time for all of the inflammation related to COVID to go away, and each person is different with regard to how long this can take,” Dr. Leykum notes.

Is a lingering COVID cough contagious? The good news is a lingering cough does not necessarily mean someone is still contagious. (Continued On Page 21)

20 Austin South Asian | January 2023 Will The Pandemic Become Endemic In 2023?

With Covid infections once again surging in several countries, especially in China which saw over 250 million cases in just 20 days in December, fresh Covid wave fears linger across the world, including in India.

While the BF.7 variant of Omicron virus is a cause of concern in China and India, the Omicron subvariant XBB accounts for 18.3 per cent of the Covid-19 cases in the United States, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

This marks an increase of 11.2 per cent as the XBB variant continues to drive up cases in Singapore.

Omicron subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 accounted for about 70 per cent of new cases in the US.

The total number of confirmed Covid cases in the US have surpassed 100 million, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, since the pandemic broke out almost three years ago, with a total of more than 1 million deaths.

Japan is facing an ongoing eighth wave of the pandemic and the

country registered 206,943 new cases.

South Korea’s new Covid cases remained below 70,000 for the second straight day on Saturday, while new coronavirus-related deaths hit a three-month high. The chief of the World Health Organization (WHO) has said that he hopes that Covid-19 will no longer be a global health emergency sometime next year.

WHO DirectorGeneral Tedros Ad hanom Ghebreyesus said that the WHO Co vid-19 Emergency Committee will discuss next month the criteria for declaring an end to the Covid-19 emergency.

“We’re hopeful that at some point next year, we will be able to say that Covid-19 is no longer a global health emergency,” he said, adding that however, SARS-CoV-2 virus, the culprit behind the Covid-19 pandemic, will not go away.

Kirti Sabnis, Infectious Disease Specialist at Fortis Hospital in Kalyan, Mumbai, told IANS that when a pandemic becomes endemic, it means that the disease is present in a particular community or globally, and there is enough immunity among the population to control outbreaks.

“Also, the infections can continue to affect vulnerable members of the community. While an endemic may not experience large outbreaks, it also means that it will not be completely eradicated,” she said.

Health experts said that it is harder to predict if Covid-19 will become endemic in 2023 because it is a respiratory virus that tends to mutate, similar to other Influenza viruses.

“If multiple mutations change the virus’s protein structure or its ability to attach to cells, it could give rise to new strains. However, if the current protection of the immunity to the virus is sufficient to prevent severe disease or reduce transmission, then definitely Covid can become endemic,” Sabnis said.

It is uncertain when or if Covid-19 will become endemic, but it is unlikely that we will be able to completely eliminate it.

Experts said that we may see occasional outbreaks, particularly during flu season or if new mutations emerge, as is currently happening in China.

“The transmission of the virus in India and the level of immunity acquired through previous vaccination and community transmission will also influence its potential to become endemic. However, it seems unlikely that there will be significant new outbreaks or that the virus will become endemic in the next 2-3 months,” Sabnis said. (Courtesy: https://www. greatandhra.com/)

What To Expect From COVID In 2023

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“I see the United States and most of the world gradually exiting from the acute phase of the pandemic,” Lawrence Gostin, a Georgetown University global-health expert, told The Daily Beast.

Yes, people will get sick when some new form of the virus becomes dominant. But owing to their natural immunity, they probably won’t get very sick.

And fresh infections will seed fresh antibodies that will then prolong the population’s natural immunity through the next wave of cases.

“The waves though will get shallower and shallower and further apart like ripples in a pond,” Jeffrey Klausner, a University of Southern California epidemiologist, told The Daily Beast. natural protection is, of course, China.

The only major country that en-

forced strict lockdowns through much of the last year and, as a result, lacks widespread natural immunity. up to the rest of the world, as far as COVID antibodies go.

The problem, for 1.4 billion Chi-

nese, is that catching up means a lot of people getting infected with COVID without the strong protection that natural immunity affords. If 2023 is the first year in four years that most of the world can breathe easy despite SARS-CoV-2 being everywhere all the time, it could also be the year China gets really sick for the first time.

The world, minus China, earned its natural immunity the hard way—by catching COVID.

Vaccines eased the pain, of course, but vaccine-induced antibodies don’t last forever.

By the end of 2021, billions of jabs were wearing off and boosters had just become available to most peo-

ple.

At the same time, many countries were lifting the last major restrictions on businesses, schools and travel. That’s when Omicron showed up.

More transmissible than older variants but less severe, Omicron drove record cases in late 2021 and early 2022—and spawned subvariants such as BA.2, BA.5 and BQ.1 that drove their own, smaller surges in cases throughout the year.

But the overall trend in 2022 was toward fewer and fewer hospitalizations and deaths.

In countries where people were getting back to a version of normal and the virus was circulating, all those accumulating natural antibodies were doing their thing.

It’s a virtuous, self-reinforcing cycle. “Natural immunity will be continually refreshed as the virus circulates widely, which will mean a population that over time has considerable levels of immunity,” Gostin explained. (Continued On Page 23)

Diwali is the biggest and most important festival in India. It is a national festival, like Christmas in Western countries, but it is also celebrated by some non-Hindu communities. Diwali falls in October or November, the celebrations last for 5 days, and they celebrate the triumph of good over evil.

What Is The Most Celebrated Festival In India? How Long Does COVID Cough Last And When Should You India’s top 10 festivals are cele- Navaratri — Victory of Rama on Worry About Long COVID? brated with much pomp and fervor: the tenth day (October 24th, 2023) Durga Puja — Victory of Durga (Continued From Page 19) Diwali — Festival of Lights (No- (October 20th to 24th, 2023) “For people with mild to moderate COVID-19, the CDC recommends vember 12th, 2023) Onam — New Year in Kerala (Au- wearing a mask for 10 days after symptom onset, and for people who gust 29th, have severe illness, the recommendation is to isolate for 20 days and 2023) resolution of fever for at least 24 hours,” Dr. Leykum says. “After that Pongal — period, people are unlikely to be infectious, [but] if there is a concern, a Harvest wearing a mask would be reasonable.” Festival (Janu - How do you get rid of a COVID cough? ary 15th, The lingering coughs related to COVID are usually dry coughs, which 2023) means you won’t feel the urge to cough anything up. “These coughs genMakar erally get better with time, typically within a few weeks,” Dr. Leykum Sankranti says. “You can soothe your throat by drinking warm drinks with honey, — the Kite taking sips of water or tea if you feel like you are going to cough, taking Festival lozenges, and keeping yourself well hydrated.” (Janu ary 15th, When should you see a doctor about a COVID cough? 2023) Even though it may seem like we’re past the state of alarm the pandemic Eid-ul-Fitr initially induced, you still want to take any case of COVID and its symp— Marks toms seriously. If you have a lingering cough that lasts longer than a the end month, Dr. Leykum recommends seeing your healthcare provider. of Ramadan (April Experiencing coughing or breathlessness for more than three months also Holi — Festival of Colors (March 21st, 2023) signals that you should check in with your doc ASAP, per the American 8th, 2023) Ganesh Chaturthi — Birthday of Lung Association, because it could be a sign of post-COVID interstitial Navaratri — the 9-Nights Festival the Elephant-Headed God (Sep- lung disease, which is a condition characterized by scarring in the lungs. for Goddesses (October 15th to tember 19th, 2023) Early detection and treatment can stop the progression of the disease. October 24th, 2023)

ACROSS

1. *Like popular Pad 5. Limit 8. Boozehound 11. Bring home the bacon 12. *Combine cuisines 13. Door holder 15. Between ports 16. *America’s favorite cookie, according to some 17. Driver’s 180 18. *Like poke bowl 20. Magician, in the olden days 21. Type of wrench 22. Campaigner, for short 23. Traditional sock pattern 26. *Southeast Asian spiky fruit, pl. 30. ____-di-dah 31. Unequivocally detestable 34. Same as ayah 35. “That is,” Latin 37. Urge Spot to attack 38. Chilled (2 words) 39. Observation point’s attraction 40. *Soft and soft type of tofu 42. Ship pronoun 43. Thrusts out or causes to protrude 45. One way to steal gas 47. Without professional help, acr. 48. Energy to motion converter 50. H.S. math class 52. *Wasabi is popular in this cuisine 55. *Type of soda bread 56. g in 10 g 57. Francis Coppola’s middle name 59. End of tunnel 60. Casanova, e.g. 61. In the thick of 62. Saturn’s wife 63. Human limb DOWN

1. *Brew from China, originally 2. *American ____ browns 3. Acreage 4. Sort of (3 words) 5. Marie or Pierre, physicists 6. Southeast Asia org. 7. Lowly laborer 8. Like a bug in a rug 9. Princess Fiona, by night 10. Square root of 100 12. Thwarted 13. SNL’s forté 14. *Nationality that gave us gelato 19. Administer 22. Wound fluid 23. Not dead 24. Radices, sing. 25. *Clarified butter of Indian origin, pl. 26. *Peking fowl 27. Mennonite’s cousin 28. Jack Black’s Libre 29. Martin of “Apocalypse Now” 32. Terrorist org. 33. Fat of olives 36. *Like certain meatballs 38. Tear-jerker 40. Hog heaven 41. Posthumous type of tax 44. Like 90 degree angle 46. Reassembled dwelling 48. Feudal dwelling 49. Poppy tears 50. Acid “journey” 51. Semis 52. France/Switzerland border mountain range 53. Not all 54. Canal in a song 55. U.N. workers’ grp. 58. Banned insecticide, acr.

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What The World Should Really Expect From COVID In 2023

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That protection gives us a glimmer of hope for 2023—and beyond. “Ultimately, the cycles of repeat waves will progressively decline to a steady-level low transmission endemic state,” Edwin Michael, an epidemiologist at the Center for Global Health Infectious Disease Research at the University of South Florida, told The Daily Beast.

“New variants will cause flare-ups, but I am expecting that given how robust natural immunity is, such spikes in cases will be small relative to Omicron, for example—and so easily manageable.”

Just not in China, which until a few weeks ago still enforced strict lockdowns.

Widespread public protests, extreme rarities in the authoritarian state, put intense pressure on the ruling Chinese Communist Party starting in late November. On Dec. 7, the party rolled back many of the restrictions.

Epidemiologists warned that a sudden lifting of lockdowns in a country that hadn’t built up much natural immunity—and where vaccination rates are low for the most vulnerable part of the population, the elderly—could bring disaster as severe infections overwhelm hospitals.

Just a couple weeks later, they’ve already been proved right. A major outbreak in Beijing has compelled local authorities to restore some of the restrictions they’d just lifted. But a return to unpopular lockdowns only delays the inevitable. The Chinese want to get back to their own normal. They’ll need natural antibodies to get there. But natural antibodies only come from infections. And those infections—potentially tens of millions of them—could define China’s 2023. The rest of the world, however, might have its most normal year since 2020. Its reward for suffering through Omicron and its offspring. If there’s a possible spoiler, it’s that SARSCoV-2 can be unpredictable.

As long as the virus is circulating, it’s mutating. For more than a year, the mutations have produced subvariants of Omicron that diminish the effectiveness of vaccines and, in the case of the latest BQ subvariants, render monoclonal antibody therapies totally ineffective. But they haven’t evaded our natural antibodies. Klausner for one doesn’t expect that to change.

“There may be many different subvariant types and no dramatic shifts. We have been in the Omicron or sub-Omicron phase of variants now for a long time. That should continue.”

If it doesn’t, and some new variant or subvariant crops up that dodges our natural antibodies, the whole world—and not just China—will have to endure waves of infections without the protection of natural immunity.

That’s how the dream of a normalish 2023 could turn into a nightmare. (Courtesy: https://www.thedailybeast.com/)