Does History Repeat Itself?

Habiba Elhadidi is a writer with interests in politics and history. She likes writing about political and social issues.

“History repeats itself.” This is a statement that has been used so often that it has become a cliché. The notion has been present in almost every field from Medicine to Economics. But does history really repeat itself? Is everything we go through and experience, some other people’s past, and eventually some other people’s future? Just by reflecting on their own lifetime, one would realize that history does and does not repeat itself. It does not because no circumstances of any two people are the same; our experiences are unique, so history does not really “repeat” itself. And it does repeat itself because there are recurring themes that have taken place throughout the course of history: wars, invasions, revolutions, poverty, economic recessions, and economic growth are all in every person’s timeline. There are certain patterns in history that one cannot unsee. Thus, in a metaphorical sense, history is repeated. What can better explain this notion is a quote often attributed to American writer Mark Twain: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

The notion that similar events can be “repeated” throughout history is known as Historical Recurrence. The concept of historical recurrence is centuries old and can be traced as far back as 146 BC in Rome. Greek historian Polybius, in his documentation of the rise of Ancient Rome in The Histories, argued that history is cyclical. He explained that governments follow a certain sequence, in terms of how authoritarian they are—which can be traced. It is very similar to what Plato explained in The Republic: “wise ruler(s) give way to aristocratic rulers... who give way to wealthy rulers... [then] to democracy... [then] to tyranny… which by accident gives way to a wise tyrant starting the whole cycle again.” In 1377, Islamic scholar Ibn Khaldun wrote in his Muqaddima that when asabiyya—Arabic for “social solidarity”—unites nomadic tribes, they emerge victorious in battle due to their military prowess and solidarity. But within a few generations, the victorious tribesmen become corrupted by extravagance and leisure. The ruler, who can no longer rely on fierce warriors for his defense, will have to raise taxes to pay for other sorts of soldiers, and this in turn may lead to further problems that result in the eventual downfall of his dynasty or state. This point in the “life” of a nation is what Ibn Khaldun called “political midlife crisis.” Ibn Khaldun compares governments to people; they grow and develop until they reach an end. While every one of us is unique, we all go through the same phases in life. And if one takes a moment to reflect on the governments they witnessed, they’ll be able to understand the metaphor Ibn Khaldun used.

Speaking of cyclical history, one has to bring up Nicollo Machiavelli’s The Prince. In the book, it is clear that studying history is a means of predicting the future. Machiavelli traced patterns in the events of the time by analysing similar historical events of the past. Three centuries later, Friedrich Nietzsche introduced his theory of eternal recurrence: “the idea that with infinite time and a finite number of events, events will recur again and again infinitely.” That belief is essentially very similar to Mark Twain’s quote: “a favorite theory of mine [is] that no occurrence is sole and solitary, but is merely a repetition of a thing which has happened before, and perhaps often.” This is definitely more philosophical and expansive, but would make sense when considering that history is “cyclical.” In other words, everything has a cycle that one has to take a moment to discern.

Since we have come to conclude that there are “cycles” in politics, we can adapt the same approach in economy as well—since the two go together. The following are two examples of “recurrence” in economic history. In 1929, after great economic growth in the U.S. economy, massive sales of overpriced shares caused the stock market to crash. The Great Depression was the worst economic downturn in the history of the industrialized world, lasting from the stock market crash of 1929 till 1939. Decades later, in 2006, banks offered massively risky loans that they couldn’t afford, which in turn led to falling housing prices; a sign of the upcoming catastrophic2007-2008financial crisis, later known as the Great Recession. The 2008 financial crisis pressured the Greek economy, resulting in a budget deficit of almost 13% of its GDP. As a result, Greece’s market crashed, scaring off investors, and forcing the EU to give funds provided that Greece take austerity measures. The two financial crises started in the U.S., but later spread to the remainder of the world. They caused a number of issues on political and social levels—the rise of the Nazis to power in the 1930s, or the pressure among Greece and the European Union (2007-2008) and high unemployment rates in both periods. But do these two economic crises serve as evidence that history repeats itself? The Great Depression and the Great Recession were the results of different dynamics; however, while they are slightly different, they do show that there is a pattern.

One current aspect that is said to be a result of “history repeating itself” is the rise of tyrannical regimes, paving the way for injustice and inequality. Over the last few years, dictators have risen to power in many of the world’s countries. Ironically, extreme right-wing politicians and ideologies are even gaining popularity and influence on governmental decision making in many world democracies. But is this really the first time in history that people all over the world have endorsed tyrannical regimes? Anyone who lived during the early 20th century would argue differently. That period witnessed the rise of some of the world’s most dangerous authoritarian regimes and autocracies: the Soviet Union’s Joseph Stalin, Italy’s Benito Mussolini, and Germany’s Adolf Hitler. Tracing back how these dictators rose to power takes us back to the late 19th century when extreme conservative parties rose to power: Russia’s Bolshevik regime paved the way to notorious dictators like Stalin. Endorsing Karl Marx’s hatred for the “bourgeoisie,” Lenin pushed that philosophy farther, exterminating the so-called “aristocracy.” In Germany, it was the Nazis who offered slogans and rhetoric that uncannily bear resemblance to today’s political arena. But then again, are those situations evident of some sort of “repetition” in history? Not quite the case; back then, Communism was the alleged magic wand that these rulers claimed would solve all the people’s problems. Nowadays, dictators are employing different tactics. If the events are not exactly what is repeated, then what is it?

It seems that history repeats itself because we repeat our actions. We prefer going with our emotions, even though we have a centuries-old history to reflect upon. If we do not learn from our predecessors’ mistakes, we are inevitably going to repeat them. As author George Santayana put it: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” History offers a precedent, lessons to learn, and priceless knowledge that if we do not make use of, we would fall victims to our own ignorance. History will repeat itself, unless we learn to do things differently.

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