AF Обзор рынков Март 2026

Market Watch Astero Falcon DIFC Limited

˝0@B 2026

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01

!57>= >BGQB=>AB59: =5>4=>@>4=K5 @57C;LB0BK ;845@>2

02

:F88: SaaS?>:0;8?A8A A53>4=O

03

˚1;830F88: =87:85 A?@M4K 45;0NB =5?@82;5:0B5;L=K<8 1C<038 A @59B8=3><

04

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05

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06

$52@0;L: <5AOF :>@@5:F88 8 @>B0F88 0:B82>2

07

For Professional Clients Only Not for Retail Distribution.

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01

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!57>==0O 70:>=><5@=>ABL D>=4>2>3> @K=:0 2 3>4K ?@><56CB>G=KE 2K1>@>2 70 ?5@8>4 1949-2024 !B0B8AB8G5A:8 D52@0;L O2;O5BAO A0<K< A;01K< <5AOF5< ?5@2>9 ?>;>28=K 3>40, >A>15==> O@:> MB> 2K@065==> 2 3>4, :>340 ?@>E>4OB ?@><56CB>G=K5 2K1>@K 2 ˆ>=3@5AA !( . "5< =5 <5=55, 70 MB8< >1KG=> A;54C5B 2>AAB0=>2;5=85 @K=:0 A <0@B0 ?> <09.

Source: Bloomberg, Astero Falcon analytics.

02

!57>= >BGQB=>AB59: =5>4=>@>4=K5 @57C;LB0BK ;845@>2 !( 7025@H8;AO A57>= >BGQB=>AB59 70 G5B25@BK9 :20@B0; 2025 3>40. ˜@81K;L S&P 500 @0ABQB 42C7=0G=K<8 B5<?0<8 >:>;> 12 13% 3/3, GB> 70<5B=> ;CGH5 >6840=89 :>=F0 45:01@O (8,3% @>AB0 ?@81K;8). K@CG:0 :><?0=89 @0ABQB 2 A@54=5< =0 8 9% 3/3 8 ?>:07K205B C65 21 9 :20@B0; ?>4@O4 ?>;>68B5;L=>9 48=0<8:8. ˝0@68=0;L=>ABL >AB0QBAO 2KA>:>9: A>2>:C?=0O G8AB0O <0@60 S&P 500 70 :20@B0; A>AB028;0 13%, GB> 1;87:> : @5:>@4=K< C@>2=O< 8 A5@LQ7=>3> 402;5=8O =0 <0@6C ?>:0 =5 =01;N405BAO. ˙CGH8<8 A5:B>@0<8 ?> @>ABC ?@81K;8 >AB0NBAO IT (>:>;> +30%), ?@><KH;5==K5 :><?0=88 8 A5:B>@ A2O78 (42C7=0G=K9 @>AB); A;0155 2A53> 2K3;O4OB ?>B@518B5;LA:89 48A:@5F8>==K9 A5:B>@, 74@02>>E@0=5=85 8 =542868<>ABL (>:>;> =C;O 8;8 ;Q3:89 <8=CA).

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!@02=5=85 8=45:A0 S&P 500 (>@0=6520O ;8=8O) 8 8=45:A0 S&P 500 A @02=K< 2725H820=85< (A8=OO ;8=8O) ! =0G0;0 3>40, @02=>2725H5==K9 8=45:A S&P 500 ?>GB8 =0 5% >?5@5605B ?> 4>E>4=>AB8 «:;0AA8G5A:89» S&P 500 (2 A>AB025 :>B>@>3> :@C?=K5 :><?0=88 ?>;CG0NB 1>;55 2KA>:89 C45;L=K9 25A). -B> 3>2>@8B > @>B0F88 0:B82>2 8 >1 >?5@560NI5< @>AB5 :><?0=89 A@54=59 8 <0;>9 :0?8B0;870F88.

Source: Bloomberg, Astero Falcon analytics.

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G0AB=>AB8, :>;8G5AB2> :>@>B:8E ?>78F89 =0 IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) 8 >1JQ< B>@3>2KE >1>@>B>2 2 MB>< 5BD 4>AB83;8 @5:>@4=> 2KA>:>3> C@>2=O MB> C:07K205B =0 M:AB@5<0;L=K9 ?5AA8<87< 8 :0?8BC;OF8N 8=25AB>@>2. %>BO C25@5==> 3>2>@8BL > D>@<8@>20=88 4=0 5IQ @0=>, <K AG8B05< GB> A:>;L7OI0O A@54=OO 70 100 <5AOF52 (A59G0A =0 C@>2=5 $70) 2KABC?8B A8;L=>9 ?>445@6:>9 8 B5:CI85 C@>2=8 C65 8=B5@5A=K 4;O 4>;3>A@>G=KE ?>:C?>:.

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iShares ETF @0AH8@5==>3> B5E=>;>38G5A:>3> A5:B>@0 (˜˚)

Source: Bloomberg, Astero Falcon analytics.

03

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!?@M4K 2 :>@?>@0B82=KE >1;830F8OE @59B8=30 >AB0NBAO =87:8<8 ?> 8AB>@8G5A:8< <5@:0<. ˜@8 CEC4H5=88 @59B8=30 C?@02;ONI85 D>=4>2 1C4CB ?@>4020BL ?>4>1=K5 1C<038, 0 8E B5:CI0O 4>E>4=>ABL =54>AB0B>G=> :><?5=A8@C5B MB>B @8A:. ˜>MB><C <K AG8B05< MB>B A53<5=B ;8H=8< 2 >1;830F8>==KE ?>@BD5;OE.

Source: Bloomberg, Astero Falcon analytics.

˝K ?@845@68205<AO AB@0B5388 barbell: A>G5B0=85 :>@>B:8E 2KA>:>4>E>4=KE >1;830F89 8 :0G5AB25==KE 4>;3>A@>G=KE AC25@5==KE 1C<03, 157 4>102;5=8O :>@?>@0B82=KE 1C<03 8=25AB8F8>==>3> @59B8=30. B0:>9 :><18=0F88, 7040G0 2KA>:>4>E>4=KE >1;830F89 - 70D8:A8@>20BL ?>2KH5==K9 :C?>= ?@8 >3@0=8G5==>9 GC2AB28B5;L=>AB8 : 87<5=5=8N ?@>F5=B=KE AB02>: 8 A>E@0=8BL 381:>ABL ?>@BD5;O 70 AGQB @53C;O@=KE ?>30H5=89. &5;L 4;8==KE AC25@5==KE 1C<03 - E5468@>20BL ?>@BD5;L 2 AF5=0@8OE 70<54;5=8O M:>=><8G5A:>3> @>AB0 8 A<O3G5=8O 45=56=>-:@548B=>9 ?>;8B8:8.

"0:65 2 B5:CI8E CA;>28OE B0:B8G5A:8 8=B5@5A=K :>=25@B8@C5<K5 >1;830F88. CA;>28OE A60BKE :@548B=KE A?@54>2 >=8 ?>72>;ONB 4>1028BL >?F8>= =0 @>AB @K=:0 0:F89 ?@8 A>E@0=5=88 107>2>9 :@548B=>9 70I8BK. ˜>2KH5==0O 2>;0B8;L=>ABL 2>:@C3 8=25AB8F8>==>3> F8:;0 2 AI 8 =5>?@545;Q==>ABL 2 B>@3>2>9 ?>;8B8:5 ?>2KH0NB AB>8<>ABL 2AB@>5==>3> >?F8>=0, 0 0:B82=K9 ?5@28G=K9 @K=>: @0AH8@O5B 2K1>@ 8=AB@C<5=B>2, 2 B>< G8A;5 2 A53<5=B0E 8=D@0AB@C:BC@K 8 F8D@>2KE A5@28A>2. ˆ;NG>< : CA?5EC >AB0QBAO A5;5:B82=K9 ?>4E>4: D>:CA =0 2K?CA:0E A> A10;0=A8@>20==K< ?@>D8;5< GC2AB28B5;L=>AB8 : 0:F8O< (delta ?>@O4:0 40 60%, GB> ?>72>;O5B CG0AB2>20BL 2 @>AB5 107>2KE 0:F89, =5 ?@52@0I0O ?>78F8N 2 :2078-0:F88 8 A>E@0=OO 70I8B=K5 A2>9AB20 >1;830F8>==>9 G0AB8), 0 B0:65 =0 M<8B5=B0E A ?@>7@0G=>9 187=5A-<>45;LN 8 CAB>9G82>9 35=5@0F859 45=56=>3> ?>B>:0.

!?@54 <564C :>@?>@0B82=K<8 >1;830F8O<8 BBB 8 10-;5B=8<8 :07=0G59A:8<8 >1;830F8O<8 !(

04

;LB5@=0B82=K5 8=25AB8F88: 3;C1>:0O :>@@5:F8O, => B@5=4 @>AB0 =5 7025@HQ= =0H5< O=20@A:>< >17>@5 <K ?8A0;8, GB> «C@>25=L $120 (216.8% ?@>5:F88 >B 2A59 107K, AD>@<8@>20==>9 2 A5@51@5 <564C 1980 8 2025 3>4><) AB0=5B 206=K< A>?@>B82;5=85<, :>B>@>5 A5@51@> ?>:0 =5 3>B>2> ?@>9B8». 29 O=20@O A5@51@> 4>AB83;> >B<5B:8 2 $121, ?>A;5 G53> ?@>H;0 1KAB@0O 8 @57:0O :>@@5:F8O. ?OB=8FC 30 O=20@O F5=0 A5@51@0 C?0;0 A@07C =0 -38%, GB> AB0;> :@C?=59H8< >4=>4=52=K< A=865=85< 70 2AN 8AB>@8N. ˛0 ;>:0;L=>< <8=8<C<5 F5=0 A5@51@0 A=860;0AL 4> 64 4>;;0@>2, GB> 8450;L=> A>2?0;> A> 100-4=52=>9 A:>;L7OI59 A@54=59. ˛0 =545;L=>< 3@0D8:5, 4=> ?@>A04:8 B0:65 A>2?0;> A 50% C@>2=5< $81>=0GG8 >B 2A53> 42865=8O A A5=BO1@O 2023 3>40. ˝K AG8B05< ?>;>68B5;L=K< B>B D0:B, GB> ?>445@6:0 =0 :;NG52KE B5E=8G5A:8E C@>2=OE A@01>B0;0 8 :>@@5:F8O =5 ?>H;0 3;C165. ˆ>@@5:F8O 2 <5B0;;0E 25@>OB=> 1K;0 2K720=0 1>;LH8< :>;8G5AB2>< A?5:C;O=B>2, 8A?>;L7CNI8E <0@68=0;L=CN B>@3>2;N 8 70Q<=K5 A@54AB20. B5G5=85 D52@0;O <8@>2K5 18@68 (2 G0AB=>AB8, '8:03A:0O B>20@=0O 18@60) <=>3>:@0B=> ?>2KH0;8 C@>25=L >15A?5G5=8O 4;O >B:@KBKE ?>78F89, GB> A45;0;> A?5:C;OF8N 2 <5B0;;0E 1>;55 4>@>3>9 8 70AB028;> G0ABL B@5945@>2 70:@KBL 4;8==K5 ?>78F88. ˜>A;5 70:@KB8O «;8H=8E» <0@68=0;L=KE ?>78F89 A5=B8<5=B 25@=C;AO : 1>;55 74>@>2K< C@>2=O< 8 <K AG8B05<, GB> @>AB 25@>OB=> 2>7>1=>28BAO.

>;>B> O2;O5BAO 4;O =0A >@85=B8@>< A@548 4@03>F5==KE <5B0;;>2 8 2 =Q< D52@0;LA:0O :>@@5:F8O ?@>H;0 ?@0:B8G5A:8 15AA;54=>. #65 G5@57 2 =545;8 7>;>B> ?>;=>ABLN >BK3@0;> 2AQ A=865=85 8 70:@K205B D52@0;L =0 >G5@54=>< @5:>@45 F5=K. ;O =0A MB> O2;O5BAO ?>4B25@645=85< B>3>, GB> 1KG89 @K=>: 2 4@03>F5==KE <5B0;;0E ?@>4>;605BAO. IQ >4=8< :>A25==K< ?>4B25@645=85< MB>3> O2;ONBAO 0:F88 :><?0=89, 4>1K20NI8E 7>;>B> 8 A5@51@>: 8E :>B8@>2:8 B0:65 70:@K20NB D52@0;L 21;878 <0:A8<C<>2. ! >:BO1@O 2025 3>40 :@8?B>20;NBK =0E>4OBAO 2 A=860NI5<AO B@5=45, A ?@>A04:>9 1>;55 50% >B ?8:0 F5=K. ! B5E=8G5A:>9 B>G:8 7@5=8O, =0 C@>2=5 65B. @0A?>;>65=K :;NG52K5 C@>2=8 ?>445@6:8 8 40;L=59H0O 48=0<8:0 :@8?B>20;NB 1C45B 7028A5BL >B B>3>, CAB>OB ;8 >=8. !59G0A 18B:>8= >?CAB8;AO 4> A@54=59 F5=K 157C1KB:0 <09=5@>2 8 A@54=59 F5=K ?>:C?:8 :@C?=KE 45@60B5;59 >10 MB8E ?>:070B5;O O2;ONBAO A8;L=K< DC=40<5=B0;L=K< «4=><», =865 :>B>@KE 20;NB0 @54:> >?CA:0;0AL 2 ?@>H;><. ˙>:0;L=K9 <5425689 @K=>: =5 >B<5=O5B =0H 4>;3>A@>G=K9 ?>78B82=K9 273;O4 =0 :@8?B>20;NBK, 2 >A>15==>AB8 18B:>8=. ˝K AG8B05<, GB> A59G0A ?@>8AE>48B A;010O D070 F8:;0 E0;28=30, :>B>@0O <>65B ?@>4;8BLAO 5IQ 4> 6 <5AOF52, => 4>;3>A@>G=K5 F5;8 ?> F5=5 18B:>8=0 @0A?>;>65=K ACI5AB25==> 2KH5 B5:CI8E 7=0G5=89.

XAG / USD ˜>A;5 4>AB865=8O @5:>@4=>9 F5=K $120 A5@51@> @57:> A:>@@5:B8@>20;>AL. ">B D0:B, GB> >A=>2=K5 C@>2=8 ?>445@6:8 CAB>O;8, A2845B5;LAB2C5B > B><, GB> @0ABCI89 B@5=4 5IQ =5 7025@HQ=.

Source: Bloomberg, Astero Falcon analytics.

05

˜@O<K5 8=25AB8F88: AB@5AA-B5AB 4;O G0AB=>3> :@548B0

06

45:01@5 <K ?8A0;8, GB> >68405< C2845BL A5@51@> 2KH5 $100 8 ?0;;0489 2KH5 $2000 70 C=F8N. -B8 F5;8 1K;8 2K?>;=5=K C65 2 O=20@5: A5@51@> 70:@K205B <5AOF =0 C@>2=5 $120, 0 ?0;;0489 AB>8B $2,040.

"5:CICN 48=0<8:C 4@03>F5==KE <5B0;;>2 <>6=> A@02=8BL A 1KAB@>9 3>=>G=>9 <0H8=>9 =0 A;>6=>9 B@0AA5: 2KA>:0O A:>@>ABL, <=>65AB2> A;>6=KE 8 1KAB@KE ?>2>@>B>2, 0 C?@02;5=85 1>;84>< B@51C5B <3=>25==>9 @50:F88 8 AB0;L=KE =5@2>2. ;O @>7=8G=KE 8=25AB>@>2 ?>:C?:0 <5B0;;>2 ?> B5:CI8< C@>2=O< =5 O2;O5BAO ?@82;5:0B5;L=>9 A45;:>9: ?@>A04:8 <>3CB 1KBL AB@5<8B5;L=K<8. ˝K A>E@0=O5< ?>;>68B5;L=K9 273;O4 =0 <5B0;;K, => ?@8 MB>< 3>B>2K : B><C, GB> 2 @0<:0E 4>;3>A@>G=>3> @0ABCI53> B@5=40 A5@51@> <>65B >B:0B8BLAO 2?;>BL 4> 75 4>;;0@>2 70 C=F8N. ˜>A;5 @>AB0 F5=K 4> B@5E7=0G=KE 7=0G5=89 <0AHB01 >B:0B>2 B0:65 >68405<> C:@C?=8BAO. ˛>2K< AB8<C;>< @>AB0 A5@51@0 AB0; A?@>A =0 D878G5A:89 <5B0;; A> AB>@>=K :8B09A:8E 8=25AB>@>2. 48=AB25==K9 :8B09A:89 ETF =0 A5@51@>, 4>ABC?=K9 :8B09A:8< @8B59; 8=25AB>@0<, B>@3C5BAO A ?@5<859 2 40% >B=>A8B5;L=> F5=K <5B0;;0 2 <5@8:5. :>=F5 =>O1@O 18@60 C0=G6>C 70?CAB8;0 B>@38 DLNG5@A0<8 8 >?F8>=0<8 =0 ?;0B8=C 8 ?0;;0489 A D878G5A:>9 ?>AB02:>9.

>?>;=8B5;L=>, 2 O=20@5 2026 ˆ8B09 22Q; <0AHB01=K5 M:A?>@B=K5 >3@0=8G5=8O =0 @O4 <8=5@0;>2 8 <5B0;;>2, 2 B>< G8A;5 A5@51@>, :>B>@>5 B5?5@L :;0AA8D8F8@>20=> :0: B>20@ 42>9=>3> =07=0G5=8O 8 B@51C5B A?5F80;L=>9 ;8F5=788 =0 M:A?>@B. ! B5E=8G5A:>9 B>G:8 7@5=8O, C@>25=L $120 A>>B25BAB2C5B 216.8% ?@>5:F88 >B 2A59 107K, AD>@<8@>20==>9 <564C 1980 8 2025 3>4><. 5@>OB=55 2A53>, MB0 F8D@0 AB0=5B 206=K< A>?@>B82;5=85<, :>B>@>5 A5@51@> ?>:0 GB> =5 3>B>2> ?@>9B8. ˛081>;55 25@>OB=K< AF5=0@85< =0 1;8609HCN ?5@A?5:B82C <K AG8B05< H8@>:CN :>=A>;840F8N <564C 100 8 120 4>;;0@0<8 70 C=F8N. ˝K >B<5G05< B>B D0:B, GB> A25G8 A 4;8==>9 B5=LN >4=>2@5<5==> ?>O28;8AL =0 3@0D8:0E <5B0;;>2 8 >A=>2=KE =5-4>;;0@>2KE 20;NB. A5 MB8 0:B82K 1K;8 15=5D8F80@0<8 >A;01;5=8O 4>;;0@0, B0: GB> 8E @072>@>B <>65B 1KBL @0==8< A83=0;>< ?5@8>40 C:@5?;5=8O 4>;;0@0. ˆ@8?B>20;NBK >AB0NBAO ?>4 402;5=85< 8 ?>:0 =0E>4OBAO 2 :@0B:>A@>G=>< =8AE>4OI5< B@5=45. ˝K =5 C25;8G8205< 0;;>:0F8N =0 MD8@ 8;8 18B:>8= 8 ?@54?>G8B05< A=860BL ?>78F8N 8;8 ?@>4020BL ?>:@KBK5 :>;; >?F8>=K =0 >BA:>:0E. #@>25=L 100B. O2;O5BAO A5@LQ7=K< A>?@>B82;5=85< 4;O BTC 8 4> B5E ?>@, ?>:0 >= =5 ?@5>4>;Q=, ?>B5=F80; @>AB0 >3@0=8G5=.

:F88 :>B8@C5<KE :><?0=89 ?@O<KE 8=25AB8F89 ˘=4CAB@8O private equity =0E>48BAO ?>4 402;5=85<: A =0G0;0 3>40 :>B8@>2:8 :;NG52KE 83@>:>2 ?@>A5;8 =0 10%-30% =0 D>=5 :@878A0, A?@>2>F8@>20==>3> ˘˘.

Source: Bloomberg, Astero Falcon analytics.

$52@0;L: <5AOF :>@@5:F88 8 @>B0F88 0:B82>2 ˚1;830F88

07

$52@0;L 2026

2026

0,47% 0,46% 0,19% 0,34% 1,04% 0,37% 0,62% 0,19% 1,45% 0,37%

1,27% 1,22% 0,99% 0,85% 1,29% 1,36% 2,58% 0,99% 2,02% 1,36%

:F88

$52@0;L 2026

2026

NASDAQ 100 Stock Index S&P 500 INDEX Dow Jones Industrial Average MSCI World Index MSCI Europe Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index SPI SMIM DAX FTSE 100 Index Hang Seng Index Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde Nikkei 225

-0,83% 0,20% 1,33% 1,22% 3,98% 5,71% 5,62% 4,70% 2,84% 6,22% -3,67% 0,51% 10,24%

0,39% 1,64% 3,16% 3,51% 7,24% 15,00% 5,63% 6,35% 3,04% 9,39% 2,96% 2,29% 16,78%

!K@L5

$52@0;L 2026

2026

5,69% 2,53% 1,04% 0,32% 0,23% -0,46%

19,76% 21,89% 5,34% 13,93% 16,43% 9,85%

0;NBK

$52@0;L 2026

2026

EURCHF CHFUSD CHFGBP EURUSD EURGBP GBPUSD

-0,24% -0,19% 0,87% -0,41% 0,62% -1,05%

-1,78% 2,35% 1,84% 0,49% -0,01% 0,50%

Swiss Bond Index (SBI) AAA-BBB Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Corporate TR Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European High Yield TR Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield TR Bloomberg Barclays Sterling Corporate TR Bloomberg Barclays China Aggregate TR Bloomberg Barclays Asia USD High Yield TR Bloomberg Barclays Global High Yield TR JPM EMBI Global Total Return Index Bloomberg Barclays Global-Aggregate TR

Gold Silver Copper WTI BRENT Bloomberg Commodity Index

Source: Bloomberg, Astero Falcon analytics.

$52@0;L: <5AOF :>@@5:F88 8 @>B0F88 0:B82>2 BTC / USD

˛0 C@>2=5 65B. 4>;;0@>2 C 18B:>8=0 @0A?>;>65=K :;NG52K5 C@>2=8 ?>445@6:8 8 40;L=59H0O 48=0<8:0 :@8?B>20;NB 1C45B 7028A5BL >B B>3>, CAB>OB ;8 >=8. -B>B C@>25=L B0:65 A>>B25BAB2C5B A@54=59 F5=5 :@C?=KE ?>:C?>: 8 B5:CI59 A515AB>8<>AB8 4>1KG8 18B:>8=0. ˝K AG8B05<, GB> =0 B5:CI8E C@>2=OE 1C45B D>@<8@>20BLAO A@54=5A@>G=>5 4=>, 0 4>;3>A@>G=K9 B@5=4 @>AB0 ?>:0 =5 7025@HQ=.

Source: Bloomberg, Astero Falcon analytics.

08

Disclaimer

09

This document is issued by Astero Falcon (DIFC) Limited€(˝Astero Falcon˛), a company incorporated in the Dubai International Financial Centre and authorised and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). This material constitutes a Financial Promotion€for the purposes of the DFSA General (GEN) Module€and is directed solely at Professional Clients, as defined under the DFSA Conduct of Business (COB) Module. It must not be acted upon by, relied upon by, or distributed to Retail Clients.

This document is provided for information and general market commentary purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, investment research, an offer, solicitation, recommendation, inducement, or personal invitation€to engage in any investment activity or to transact in any financial instrument or product. The content has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any recipient and no assessment of suitability or appropriateness has been undertaken. Recipients should obtain independent professional advice€before making any investment decision and should not rely on this document as the sole basis for any investment decision.

This material does not constitute ˝Investment Research˛€as defined under the DFSA Conduct of Business Rules and has not been prepared in accordance with legal or regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research.

Any forward-looking statements, opinions, projections, forecasts, or market expectations€are inherently uncertain and subject to change. Actual outcomes may differ materially due to market conditions, interest-rate movements, macroeconomic developments, geopolitical events, regulatory changes, or other factors. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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