President Marcos, one year later

era – the Maharlika brand, the elite advisers, the parties; even multimillion-peso art pieces from the Martial Law era have resurfaced.

Sure, military rule is gone but to some degree, the old ways are crawling back, including failed programs such as Masagana 99.

We also see the kind of parties the Marcoses were known for. There’s nothing wrong with partying of course, as long as it’s not charged to taxpayers because we’re still struggling to recover from the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

There are a lot of foreign trips, too, although at least we haven’t heard of an airplane forced to do a mid-air U-turn as what happened before when former first lady Imelda Marcos, after departing Rome, realized she’d forgotten to buy some cheese.

And while cronyism is not a buzzword these days, Manila’s elites have returned to the Palace, regaining their place in the seat of power from the crass Davao Group. The same elite-driven thread still holds the canvas of our society, same as during and after the Marcos Sr. era.

Against this backdrop, the Philippines is still facing a host of domestic issues – high prices of basic goods, poor social services, worsening road and air traffic, deteriorating quality of education and corruption.

Maharlika

And then there’s the Maharlika Investment Fund which, despite a string of criticisms, managed to pass Congress with minimal due diligence. There’s fear it would be used to launder wealth stashed abroad. We’ll just have to wait and see what good Maharlika would really do for our country.

We’re lucky that outgoing Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Felipe Medalla voiced his concerns against Maharlika in its original form, when nobody dared speak out. He will be remembered for it and his excellent job as the country’s chief monetary official.

Thank you, Gov. Medalla for doing all that and more.

Surviving Exactly a year ago, June 30, President Marcos was inaugurated as the country’s 17th president at the historic National Museum.

The historic building is the ground that stood witness to the return to power of the Marcoses, on the 50th anniversary of Martial Law no less.

It’s the same building where great statesmen of the past fought for our rights; it’s also the home of Juan Luna’s Spoliarium, that lifesized tableau about social injustice.

A year since the inauguration, Filipinos are still busy surviving; perhaps others stopped caring while 31 million and probably more are happy with how things are going. Only a handful of what’s left of the Left still go out to protest.

The old guards of society are gone, too. We now have a Congress infiltrated by unapologetic charlatans. What kind of lawmaker equates combing one’s mustache during a Senate hearing to love for Filipinos? Cringe.

Last year, while watching the inauguration of President Marcos on live TV, I thought about the grieving motherland in Juan Luna’s Spoliarium and our dead patriots who once walked that building.

I wondered then as I wonder now, what would they say about the Philippines of today?

As for me, the way I see it, the Marcos administration has managed to stay in cruise control. There are no earth-shaking issues except for Maharlika, the rumored infighting inside Malacañang and some hilarious appointments. We’re like a vehicle that’s neither moving too slow nor too fast. And normally that’s OK.

But I wonder how long we can afford to stay this way. Do we wait until our unresolved problems like graft & corruption, poverty, our crisis in education, etc. unravel beyond repair? I fervently hope not. (Philstar. com)

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The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the Asian Journal, its management, editorial board and staff.

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Email: eyesgonzales@gmail.com. Follow her on Twitter @eyesgonzales.

THE world economic outlook is bleak – this year, next year, in fact, over the next five years, if you believe experts of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

I use the word “expert” liberally. The World Bank (with 187 member-countries) and the IMF (with 190 membercountries) are lenders of last resort of nations and their governments. They are supposed to promote growth, stability and prosperity. Instead, it has been a roller coaster ride for many countries, economically.

More than 800 million people are hungry and more than 800 million are dirt poor, earning less than $2 a day.

The IMF in the late 1990s lent $11 billion to Russia to prop up its economy. Most of the money disappeared and what appeared is a guy named Putin who 16 months ago invaded Ukraine. Talk about eliminating despots and dictators from the face of earth. Today, there are more

The bleak outlook, says Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, “is due to the compounding effects of the recent banking turmoil, high inflation, Russia-Ukraine war and lingering impacts of the pandemic.” In 2010 to 2019, the world economy was growing by 3.7 percent per year.

“The bleak global economic outlook for 2023 is largely due to the weak economic growth of some advanced and major economies – including the U.S., UK, Germany, Japan and China –in the first quarter of 2023.” Diokno briefed a group of senior newsmen on Saturday, June 24 at breakfast.

Not to worry, assures the head of President Marcos Jr.’s economic team. “The economy is strong, resilient and sustainable,” he declared. “Our macroeconomic fundamentals remain intact and we are poised to outperform our regional peers.”

This year, the economy is projected to grow by 6 percent, and by 6.5 to 8 percent from 2024 to 2028.

For the Philippine economy’s strength, we must thank three things: One, our consumers –you, me, they – numbering 114 million. They just keep spending like there is no end to money. About P72 (72 percent) of every P100 of economic production comes from consumer spending. The ratio reached as high as 78.8 percent in 2022. Households spend at the rate of seven percent, twice the rate government does, three percent.

Two, the government is also a big spender, accounting for up to 10 percent of GDP. The government has P5.7 trillion of budget and P13 trillion of debts, a total of P18.7 trillion, 78 percent of a projected GDP of P24 trillion. Imagine that: Nearly P80 of every P100 of GDP is spent by just two million bureaucrats.

Three, inflows of dollars. Our OFWs remitted $32.5 billion (P1.82 trillion at P56 to $1) in 2022, up 3.6 percent. Earnings from business process outsourcing (BPOs or call centers) hit $27.5 billion (P1.54 trillion), up 9.1 percent. BPO dollars will rise to $29.78 billion this year, up 8.3 percent.

Now, $32.5 billion plus $27.5 billion is $60 billion of value- added money. That’s three times what Vietnam gets in foreign direct investments (FDIs) or $20 billion yearly. Vietnam is the darling of foreign investors in ASEAN.

So who needs foreign investors when the country gets $60 billion yearly? In attracting FDI, the government spends a lot of money – in tax and other incentives foregone.

But we do have FDIs – $9 billion in 2022 and 2023 and $11 billion in 2024, according to Diokno.

The structural reforms to liberalize the economy and favorable prospects of the economy are expected to sustain the inflow of FDIs.

Gross international reserves remain stable at $100.6 billion at end-May 2023, worth 7.4 months’ worth of import cover, more than twice the minimum three months.

International reserves are like a country’s checking account against which you charge imports, debt payments, profit remittances of foreign investors and your travels.

The balance of payments (overall foreign exchange transactions, inflow minus outflow) will narrow to 3.4 percent of GDP in 2023 and 3.2 percent in 2024, from 4.4 percent in 2022. In the first quarter 2023, the BOP was in surplus, of $3.5 billion, thanks to OFW remittances, state foreign borrowings and FDIs.

Said the economic czar in his briefing to us:

“The Philippine economy grew by a robust 6.4 percent in the first quarter of this year despite an uncertain global outlook and elevated inflation. This came on the heels of our record-high 7.6 percent fullyear growth in 2022.

“Our growth is supported by domestic demand, which contributed 8.3 percentage points to the real GDP growth.

The contribution of domestic demand is led by household consumption at 4.8 percentage points, fueled by improving labor conditions and pent-up demand. Investments or gross fixed capital formation contributed 2.6 percentage points, driven by construction.

“On the fiscal side, revenue collections for the first five months of the year improved to P1.6 trillion, up by P155.6 billion or 10.8 percent compared to the same period last year.

“Unemployment remains low. The unemployment rate in April 2023 settled at 4.5 percent from last year’s level of 5.7 percent.

“Underemployment rate dropped to 12.9 percent, lower than the 14 percent recorded in April last year.”

Inflation for 2023 will narrow to 5 to 6 percent from the previous assumption range of 5 to 7 percent. This is partly due to the consistent deceleration in headline inflation. Core inflation (minus food and energy)

“remains sticky but has eased to 7.7 percent in May from 7.9 percent in April.”

For now, the central bank will keep its policy rate of 6.25 percent, which came from 2 percent.

Oil prices are dropping, to $75.98 per barrel for Brent, from $95.76 in February 2022, a drop of almost $20 a barrel or 21 percent. (Philstar.com)

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The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the Asian Journal, its management, editorial board and staff.

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Email: biznewsasia@gmail.com