Premature

Most unsurprisingly, Sara Duterte tops this poll. Overwhelmingly.

An article on the Manila Times website announcing the award said Tiglao was one of the awardees in the Outstanding Contributions category that “recognizes individuals of lesser prominence” but who nonetheless are making “notable contributions” in promoting Philippines-China ties.

Tiglao was the former Philippine Ambassador to Greece whose short pathetic failed stint was marked by petitions and protests for his ouster by overseas Filipino workers (https://www. gmanetwork.com/news/news/ pinoyabroad/203170/pinoyprotesters-in-greece-demandouster-of-envoy/story/) and was even described by leaders of different migrant workers’ groups as “one of the worst in Philippine diplomatic service.”

Nonetheless, Tiglao must have made his patrons happy when he called the 2016 arbitral tribunal award that invalidated China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea as “a hoax” and even had the audacity to write a book about it.

He is relentless in his efforts to denigrate the initiative taken by the Philippines to file a case before the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague that challenged the so-called ninedash-line that China has been using to claim almost the whole of the South China Sea – without even considering the basis for that suit.

He has been so prolific in thrashing the award which many other nations – including other claimants to the disputed territories – have recognized and supported, undoubtedly making it lawful for us to demand for China to stop the harassment and bullying of Filipino fishermen who continue to suffer everyday at the loss of their livelihood. Tiglao seems to have a propensity for the “I couldn’t care less” attitude towards the plight of our OFWs and our fisherfolk.

One can only wonder, does Tiglao – who is repeatedly fact- checked – really mean what he has been writing and saying, or is he mouthing the thoughts and words of another country? In any case, that should not really be surprising because he has actually been described, and worked as – a mouthpiece. (Philstar.com)

* * * The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the Asian Journal, its management, editorial board and staff.

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PRESIDENT Bongbong Marcos’ term ends in 2028. That is about five years away, give or take a few days. There is no provision in our Constitution that allows snap elections to be called. Notwithstanding, there seems to be enough people willing to invest in early tracking polls that provide snapshots of the public’s political dispositions. The most recent of these tracking polls was released recently by polling outfit Social Weather Stations (SWS).

The poll was commissioned by the party-list LPG Marketers’ Association and was conducted nationwide April 15 to 18. There were no surprises in this poll – although there could be some insight to be generated through qualitative evaluation of the numbers. The insight could be useful for political players trying to position in the nearer term.

The sitting vice president was preferred by 28 percent of respondents, way ahead of second-placer Raffy Tulfo who polled 11 percent. She has been topping job approval and trust surveys conducted by the various polling firms. She consistently outpolled President Marcos Jr. the past few months – even as their partnership has been generating incredibly high popularity numbers through their first year in office.

In 2021, before she decided to stand down as presidential contender, Sara was leading the surveys as well. She evidently enjoys a stable base of support. This base of support enables her to take sharp and independent positions on the issues of the day. Her leading position in this latest SWS poll will likely encourage her to take a more colorful political posture – such as when she called unnamed political players “tambaloslos,” a distasteful mythical creature in

Visayan folklore.

The SWS survey, important to note, was taken in mid-April. This was before all that trouble began at the House of Representatives in the wake of former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s demotion from senior deputy speaker. After that happened, Sara resigned from the Lakas party and started attacking an unnamed rival believed to be Speaker Martin Romualdez.

Popular broadcaster Raffy Tulfo is a significant second placer in the SWS poll. Recall that he was a strong candidate in last year’s Senate race. He evidently has a team in his Senate office carefully crafting his public statements and ensuring a sustained presence in the public eye. Some consider Tulfo significant enough as a political player to lead a separate party formation in the midterm elections as a step towards a presidential run in 2028. That will require a lot of hard work, however.

Placing third in public preference to lead the nation in 2028 is former vice president

Leni Robredo. Apparently, all her social media postings showing her vacationing all over the world could not shore up whatever electoral capital she has left from last year’s elections.

Curiously, former president Rodrigo Duterte, who is not qualified for another presidential run, places fourth. This indicates a significant residual constituency for the sort of renegade politics he personified. Support for the father could be imputed to the daughter, enlarging her overwhelming advantage.

Boxing champion Manny Pacquiao placed fifth with a 2-percent share of the poll. That might not be significant enough to position him as a 2028 presidential player but other tracking polls show he enjoys stronger support for a midterm senatorial run. This might be enough to seduce him back into the electoral game – if he still has financial resources to do the retail politicking in the interim.

Robin Padilla, Isko Moreno, Bongbong Marcos (who cannot run in 2028), Imee Marcos and Sandro Marcos each garnered 1 percent in the SWS poll. A few other had insignificant numbers. It is significant that House

Speaker Martin Romualdez does not figure in this very preliminary tracking poll. He has been making himself very visible the past year. That has so far failed to persuade the public about his “presidentiability.”

Romualdez, first cousin of the president, enjoys the support of nearly all the major political parties. His control of the House is unquestioned – especially as he appears to have thwarted a challenge to his leadership. The supermajority of legislators is demonstrative in their support for him.

It is this town’s worst kept secret that Romualdez is eyeing the 2028 presidential elections.

To get there, he will have to hurdle the midterm elections in 2025. The bi-factional character of our local politics could threaten the hegemony the administration parties now enjoy. Already, a small but influential number of local politicians are busy building up a new party formation that professes loyalty to the sitting president – but not the sitting speaker.

Precedent hangs heavily over Martin’s ambitions. In recent political history, two very able House Speakers leading multiparty coalitions dared aspire for the presidency. Ramon Mitra lost to Fidel Ramos and Jose de Venecia lost to Joseph Estrada. Miserably.

While House Speakers have great power to advance a ruling coalition’s legislative agenda and maintain a high profile in the nation’s politics, they are ultimately elected only by small congressional districts where voters make their choices almost out of habit. They are local politicians, unlike senators who enjoy a nationwide voting base.

Furthermore, our most obsequious congressmen often promise but fail to deliver their districts to the House leader. Local government executives are vastly more reliable.

To be sure, the latest SWS tracking poll is premature. But it will subtly illuminate the course of action of powerbrokers in the period before that actual contest. It will probably also help shape the alignments for 2025. (Philstar. com)

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The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the Asian Journal, its management, editorial board and staff.