EDCA: Bane or boon?

the Cory administration, ramped up its demonization of the Marcos family who were vilified, ridiculed and shamed in the American press. Case after case were filed against them for compensation to the martial law victims whose list of names were suspect, and for the recovery of alleged ill-gotten wealth, to mention just two.

So, why would Marcos Jr. cocoon the Americans despite what they did to him and his family? Why would he weasel out of the Chinese embrace after long years of friendship?

Personal interest vs national interest

The experience of the Marcoses with the Americans, I would imagine, would have been traumatic for the young Marcos. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how he must have felt toward the Americans and now that he is President, I didn't expect Marcos Jr. to behave as if nothing had happened between his family and the Americans. And yet, he has recently granted the use of four additional military bases on top of the existing five or a total of nine, to the Americans under the EDCA agreement. This was no easy decision, knowing fully well that the EDCA will put the Philippines in harm's way in the event a conflict flared between China and the United States over Taiwan or the West Philippine Sea.

The reality is that there are only three options for Marcos Jr., all of which could be portentous. Let me explain.

The American and the China cards are both perilous for the Philippines. Either way, it will not spare us in the event of a clash between two hemogenic giants — militarily or economically.

Whichever way the wind blows, we are crushed. The third option is neutrality. The only way to stay neutral is to do the bidding of China and short of a formal declaration, we allow ourselves to become a "province of China."

China forced BBM'S hand

Marcos Jr. has no options left but to acquiesce to the request of the United States for nine military bases under EDCA. To do otherwise would be a sign of weakness in the face of bullying by China. He could even be accused of treason if he did not show resolve in protecting our patrimony and the lives and livelihood of our fisherfolk.

What do you do when China, who professes undying friendship, continues to violate our sovereign rights (not sovereignty), and harass our fishermen, which has become a daily occurrence, depriving them of their livelihood?

There was even an incident when the Chinese rammed a boat of our fishermen and left them for dead in the high seas.

In another recent incident, the Chinese beamed a militarygrade laser at our coast guard on a routine supply run to our military outpost in Ayungin Shoal, temporarily blinding them.

China has built a constellation of military outposts, including reclaiming over 3,400 hectares, and turning it into a naval base capable of launching a bombing run on the Philippines, and threatening the flow of trade in the West Pacific.

And you expect Marcos Jr. to stay neutral?

In the long and short of it, China has only itself to blame for the decision of Marcos Jr. to enlist the United States in defense of the Philippines. China's ambitions likely to encourage China to use armed force, as the cost of an invasion would not be so high.

The bottom line is, no matter our position, a war breaking out in Taiwan is not in our country’s interest, and that preventing one from happening by being part of an alliance to deter China from starting one would be. Taking this a step further, has there been any consideration about our security position if Taiwan were to fall under the complete control of China? Such scenario would mean China’s land border would only be around 400 kilometers from Batanes instead of 3,000 km away as it is now. So aside from the WPS, we now have to closely monitor and patrol our northeast and eastern maritime domain, which includes the Benham Rise. Recall that a few years back, Chinese ships were surveying the area, which could be another flashpoint in Philippine-China relations. Therefore, if we are to talk about protecting our country’s sovereignty and territory, both on land and at sea, we need to take all possible scenarios and factors into account, and act according to our country and people’s best interest.

Speaking of our country’s and people’s best interest, would the status quo of regular harassment of our fishermen and the Coast Guard, and the normalization of these violations of the 2016 arbitral ruling in our favor, be acceptable?

Independently building our defense posture is ideal, but how many generations will it take for us to achieve military parity with

China, if that is even possible?

In the meantime, we have to use all means necessary to protect our sovereignty and territory. Of course, doing so comes with risks, but sticking our head in the sand and hoping we’d be left alone would be worse. By the time we stick our head out of the ground, we’d realize we have already lost control of part of our territory. (Inquirer.net) need to be checked somehow, and the best way would be to go for what is called the "Cornerstone Balancer" principle, where a weak state enters into a joint agreement with a more powerful country like the United States. It could also be an agreement with other states like Vietnam, Malaysia, Japan, Australia and India, whose combined military strength could overshadow the aggressor.

* * * The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the Asian Journal, its management, editorial board and staff.

* * * Moira G. Gallaga served three Philippine presidents as presidential protocol officer, and was posted as a diplomat at the Philippine consulate general in Los Angeles, and the Philippine Embassy in Washington.

Independent foreign policy?

Breaking his avowed foreign policy of "Being a friend to all, enemy to none," and displeasing the Chinese was a forced move. Let's be clear about this: both China and the United States are hegemonic, both are fighting for world dominance, both have their own interests to protect and promote, and both need the Philippines to advance their country's agenda. It is our misfortune that the Philippines is simply on the wrong side of geography. It is a small country coveted by two superpowers.

But what choice does the President have? Either he allows China to continue to occupy parts of our territory, harass our fishermen, militarize the WPS, and let the Philippines be a wimp, or run to the Americans for succor.

How did we end up where we are?

Blame the Chinese. It is time to close ranks and support our policy of alignment with the United States and pray that war or even a limited or regional war is averted. China should wake up to the reality that if it wants the world to trust it, it should forego its hegemonic ambition by demonstrating respect for its neighboring countries' territorial claims, stop being a neighborhood bully, and start behaving like a responsible member of nations. Doing so would mean leaving behind its military outposts and naval bases in the WPS and turning it instead into a sea of peace.

The question is: Will the Chinese leave behind their constellation of military outposts and forgo their claim to the almost entire WPS? I don't think so. What happens now to the avowed foreign policy of President Marcos Jr.: "Enemy to none, friends to all?" You can forget it and brace for more harassments and hostile acts by the Chinese. (ManilaTimes.net) * * *

The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the Asian Journal, its management, editorial board and staff.