Summary – 13 February

Variants | 173

Bernd Sebastian Kamps Published 31 January – Revised 13 February

The more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants are now dominant in England (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351) and Amazonia (P.1). Data from the UK, Denmark, Belgium and Switzerland show that B.1.1.7 replaces previously dominating strains in a predictable manner, progressing from 20% to 80% of the circulating viruses in 4 weeks (Figure 1, 7 and 11). After another few weeks of enhanced transmission, new epidemic waves might build as early as midMarch. In most of continental Europe and the US, Easter 2021 (4 April) may be recalled later as a B.1.1.7 Easter. While ‘hard’ lockdowns are apt at controlling the new variants (see below: UK, Ireland, South Africa), ‘soft’ lockdowns may not be sufficient (Figure 2). B.1.1.7, B.1.351 and P.1 escape natural or vaccine-acquired immunity to different degrees (see page 189). B.1.351 and P.1 are also partly or totally resistant against some monoclonal antibodies (page 193). It is likely that infection with B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of hospitalization and death compared to infection with previsously circulating viruses (NERVTAG 20210211).

Figure 1. The proportion of B.1.1.7 among confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases increases at a similar pace in different regions of Switzerland. Geneva appears to be around two weeks ahead of the rest of Switzerland. Source and copyright: Christian Althaus, https://twitter.com/C_Althaus/status/1360177933155983361.