Area Development Q3 Issue 2020

AREADEVELOPMENT SITE

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FACILITY

Q3 / 2 0 2 0

PLANNING

THE NEXT RECOVERY: REGIONAL LEADERS & LAGGARDS

Which econom metro i survivees will pandem the ic?

11th Annual

TOP STATES for Doing

Business W W W. A R E A D E V E L O P M E N T. C O M

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America’s top state for talent

Ranked No. 1 in America for both talent and education by CNBC, Virginia continues to raise the bar when it comes to talent development.

Virginia Talent Accelerator Program: offers world-class, fully-customized workforce recruitment and training solutions — at no cost to eligible companies Tech Talent Investment Program: commits more than $1 billion to produce 31,000 new graduates in computer science and related fields in the next 20 years (in excess of current levels) Computer Science in K-12: Virginia is the first state to incorporate computer science, including coding, as a mandatory part of the curriculum for all public school students, from kindergarten through graduation

CONTENTS

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Cover Story

THE NEXT RECOVERY: REGIONAL LEADERS & LAGGARDS While companies still need a skilled, highly educated workforce, the COVID-19 pandemic and increased reliance on remote working are prompting them to rethink their location decisions.

16 Changing Markets

25 A Heightened Focus on Reshoring

The pandemic’s effect on workforce, supply chain, and government support will affect your company’s location decisions, increasing risks while also presenting new opportunities.

As costs and risks of lengthy supply chains become even more apparent in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, more U.S. companies may consider reshoring their operations to the Americas.

18 What Does the Future

Hold for FDI from Europe?

The coronavirus pandemic has affected foreign direct investment from Europe, but some positive signs are seen going forward.

for Learning and Development in an Increasingly Virtual World For companies that want to stay ahead of the pack, now is the time to rethink how they train and empower their employees.

features

in Uncertain Times

46 New Strategies

60 Data-Driven

Operational Strategies in the Pandemic Era As companies look to make decisions on ramping up operations post–COVID-19, they can look to data that provide insight on specific locations’ pandemic-related risks.

Area Development® Site & Facility Planning (USPS 345-510) is published four times per year (Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4) at Lancaster, PA, by Halcyon Business Publications, Inc., 400 Post Ave., Westbury, NY 11590.

Periodicals postage paid at Westbury, NY, and additional offices. Single copies, $20. Yearly subscription U.S. & Canada, $75; foreign, $95.

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8/31/20 12:17 PM

Volume 55 | Number 3 Q3/2020

Government “There is not a liberal America and a conservative America -- there is the United States of America.”

Barack Obama (1961–

), the 44th President of

the United States

departments

4 Editor’s Note

Navigating the “New Normal” of Work

6 Front Line

OVID-19 Spurs More Automated C Manufacturing

62 Proactive Management

8 Front Line

of Incentives Deals

isa Ban Upends Companies V and Competitiveness

In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, companies need to determine if they are at risk of breach of incentives contracts and communicate with the incentivegranting authorities.

10 In Focus

Is Your Workplace Ready for the “Next Normal?”

12 In Focus

ale-Leasebacks Help Companies S Leverage Capital

14 First Person

S

28 IT

special report E

CO

N S U LTA

11th Annual

NT

64 Ad Index/Web Directory S

TOP STATES for Doing

Business 2020 SURVEY

48

ryan Jensen, Chairman & Executive B Vice President, St. Onge Company

Despite changes brought by the COVID-19 pandemic, the states across the South seem to have all their ducks in a row when it comes to attracting business.

exclusive online content • In Focus — An Evolving Last Mile • In Focus — Increased Data Center Growth Driven by the COVID-19 Pandemic • Infrastructure Investment as an Economic Stimulus Tool • Indemnification Provisions in Incentives Agreements: Best Practices and Special Public Entity Issues

location canada

Canada offers unique opportunities for businesses to thrive in a post-COVID world, with business incentives that can build resiliency and the new USMCA that provides a level of certainty to investors.

• Optimizing Project Outcomes Through Advanced Project Planning • The Importance of “Regional Depth” with Global Reach • Successfully Returning to the Workplace Post-COVID Find these articles and more @ www.areadevelopment.com

POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Area Development, Circulation Department, 400 Post Ave., Westbury, NY 11590. Subscribers requesting address changes must provide both old and new addresses. © Copyright 2020 by Area Development® magazine. ISSN: 1048-6534. Printed in the U.S.A. Area Development® is a registered trademark of Halcyon Business Publications, Inc.

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EDITORS NOTE

Q3/2020

Navigating the “New Normal”of Work

A

s companies begin to bring employees back into the workplace post-pandemic, they need to consider the layout and density of the workspace in order to keep employees safe, while still creating a vibrant workplace culture.

Opportunities to collaborate, concentrate, and innovate will all be critical to stimulating business performance moving forward, advises Bernice Boucher, managing director of Strategic

Consulting at JLL. With that in mind, companies need to renew their focus on training and development to give employees the skills they need beyond the pandemic.

Speed, agility, and a commitment to lifelong learning will separate those organizations that merely survive the pandemic from the ones that grow and thrive. Just as the scale of remote work has accelerated, much of this training will take place virtually so it will be available 24/7 and in its entirety to new employees on day one.

There will also be a greater emphasis on cultural and neurological differences of those being trained as this affects “styles” of learning, Boucher explains. This is a natural outgrowth of companies’ need to incorporate diversity and inclusion into every aspect of their business.

A focus on diversity has been particularly important to the tech industry and the healthcare industry, among others, which employ many individuals from foreign nations who have been granted H-1B and other work visas. The Trump administration’s extended freeze on these visas has many businesses that rely on these workers concerned that the policy will hurt U.S. global competitiveness as we move past the worldwide pandemic.

In this regard, Canada’s more welcoming attitude to foreign workers may give it an advantage over the United States. Canada continues to process new applications for permanent and temporary residence, which will enhance its skilled labor pipeline.

Read more about these post-pandemic developments, including FDI into Canada as well as the United States, inside this issue. As your business navigates the latest “new normal,” Area Development will continue to bring you valuable information to move your company forward.

www.areadevelopment.com EDITORIAL Editor Geraldine Gambale editor@areadevelopment.com Staff and Contributing Editors Lisa Bastian Dave Claborn Mark Crawford Dan Emerson Tom Ewing

Tom Gresham Mark Schantz Steve Kaelble Karen Thuermer

DESIGN/PRODUCTION Art & Design Patricia Zedalis Production Manager Jessica Whitebook jessica@areadevelopment.com

EXECUTIVE Publisher Dennis J. Shea dshea@areadevelopment.com Sydney Russell, Publisher 1965-1986

ADVERTISING SALES William Bakewicz (ext. 202) billbake@areadevelopment.com

ONLINE SERVICES Digital Media Manager Justin Shea (ext. 220) jshea@areadevelopment.com Web Designer Carmela Emerson

CONFERENCES/EVENTS Business Development Manager Matthew Shea (ext. 231) mshea@areadevelopment.com

CIRCULATION circ@areadevelopment.com

FINANCE finance@areadevelopment.com

Editor

EXECUTIVE OFFICES Halcyon Business Publications, Inc. President Dennis J. Shea

2020 Editorial Advisory Board Josh Bays, Principal, Site Selection Group, LLC Marc Beauchamp, President and CEO, The CAI Global Group H. Robert Boehringer, III, Managing Director, Global Location and Expansion Services, KPMG Brian Corde, Managing Partner, Atlas Insight, LLC Les Cranmer, Senior Managing Director, Savills Kate Crowley, Principal, Baker Tilly Capital, LLC Dennis Cuneo, Former SVP, Toyota

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Amy Gerber, Executive Managing Director, Business Incentives Practice, Cushman & Wakefield

Bradley Migdal, Senior Managing Director, Business Incentives Practice, Cushman & Wakefield, Inc.

Stephen Gray, CEO, Gray

Paul Naumoff, Principal, National Director of Tax Credits and Investment Advisory Services, EY

Michael Kruklinski, Head of Real Estate, Siemens Energy and Siemens USA Scott Kupperman, Founder, Kupperman Location Solutions, LLC Dan Levine, Practice Leader, Location Strategies and Economic Development, Oxford Economics, Inc. Bill Luttrell, Director of Corporate Real Estate, Werner Enterprises, Inc.

Eric Stavriotis, Senior Vice President, Advisory & Transaction Services, CBRE Margy Sweeney, Founder & CEO, Akrete, Inc. Dan White, Director, Government Consulting and Fiscal Policy Research, Moody’s Analytics

Business/Finance Assistant Barbara Olsen (ext. 225) olsen@areadevelopment.com All correspondence to: Area Development Magazine 400 Post Avenue, Westbury, NY 11590 Phone: 516.338.0900 Toll Free: 800.735.2732 Fax: 516.338.0100

Joshua Wright, Vice President, Economic & Workforce Development, Emsi

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FRONT LINE COVID-19 Spurs More Automated Manufacturing The global pandemic has presented manufacturers with new labor challenges, which are being addressed by new technologies and automation.

Sleepnet has retrofitted automation components to increase production of in-demand envo® masks.

•

BY KAREN E. THUERMER

The global pandemic has upended the labor market and dramatically and suddenly reversed U.S. economic expansion.

COVID-19, especially, has caused U.S. manufactures to face unprecedented labor challenges.

With COVID-19 and the need for social distancing, these shortages are escalating. Many factories have shuttered to protect workers and prevent COVID-19’s spread. Even before this global crisis, in 2018 Deloitte had already projected that manufacturers would face shortages of some 2.4 million workers through 2028.1

New Technologies New technologies and automaton can be a

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solution to this problem.

Capgemini Research Institute reports that the market for smart manufacturing platforms reached $4.4 billion in 2019 and expects it to grow steadily over the next five years.2 Just recently, Thomas, which specializes in industrial sourcing platforms, found in its own survey that one in four U.S. manufacturers are considering expanding industrial automation as a result of COVID-19.

for all frontline workers,” says Tom Moulton, CEO and president of Sleepnet. Consequently, Sleepnet has increased capacity by working longer hours and upgrading existing machines by retrofitting automation components.

“We anticipate a 30 percent increase in production as well as more time to do secondary operations by developing work cells for more throughput with less labor,” Moulton says. “In the next phase of our work, we will increase the number of machines we use, which will double our capacity by the end of the year.”

THE MARKET FOR SMART MANUFACTURING PLATFORMS REACHED $4.4 BILLION IN 2019 AND IT IS EXPECTED TO GROW STEADILY OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. An additional 20 percent of companies reported they already have systems in place.3 One such company is Sleepnet in Hampton, N.H., which manufactures gel masks for obstructive sleep apnea and noninvasive ventilation.

“Since COVID-19 hit, our team has seen a significant increase in demand of the exceptional envo® mask, a reusable N95 respirator mask used in trades, industrial environments, and many other NIOSH N95-rated applications, and now

Custom Machinery Steven Douglas Corp.

(SDC) has seen an uptick in automation requests, particularly among manufacturers in the medical and pharmaceutical industry and consumer products. SDC designs, engineers, and builds custom machinery for factory automation.

Ashley Belliveau, who handles SDC’s Business Development, points to two reason: the lack of quality labor in manufacturing facilities and an overall shift to implement social distancing, e.g.,

taking a fully manual line and converting it to a semi-automated line; spacing operators 6 feet apart with an automated conveyor and part-tracking system in between.

Today SDC finds that more customers are purchasing both fullautomated and semiautomated machines to manufacture the same product. For example, a customer purchased a large, custom, fully automated machine to inspect and package a drill bit.

“We were able to use some of the automated processes from the fully automated machine and adapt them for two identical semi-automated work benches to perform the same processes,” she explains. “The semiautomated solutions offer the ability to run smaller batches of production in a variety of sizes without any machine change over.”

SDC also notices more manufacturers being comfortable with integrating industrial robots and complex machine vision and inspection systems. “Many manufacturers are investing in training their operators to monitor automated machines instead of training operators to manufacture products,” she explains.

1

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/ manufacturing/articles/future-of-manufacturing-skills-gap-study.html# 2 https://www.capgemini.com/us-en/ research/smart-factory-scale/ 3 https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/ manufacturer-response-to-covid-19-disruptions-increased-interest-in-automationreshoring/

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FRONT LINE Visa Ban Upends Companies and Competitiveness The administration’s freeze and restrictions on visas for foreign workers may only exacerbate the economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.

our global competitiveness on the world stage.”

According to research

by Dice Insights1, U.S. Department of Labor figures show that Google hired 7,604 H-1B workers in 2019; Facebook, 1,521; and Apple, 836.

Strain on Innovation & Essential Workers, Too

•

BY KAREN E. THUERMER

A host of companies have been blasting the Trump administration for its extended freeze on green card visas and new restrictions on H-1B and other work visas, effective June 24th. President Trump’s position: immigrants are taking American jobs while the nation faces an economic crisis resulting from COVID-19.

The ban is set to expire in 2021 but could be extended if Trump is re-elected. While the ban does not apply to foreign workers with visas who are already in the U.S. or those outside the country who have already been issued visas, healthcare workers who treat and/ or are researching COVID-19, as well as those working in the nation’s food supply chain and at tech firms, are particularly taking issue.

Tech Speaks Out Apple CEO Tim Cook

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wrote on Twitter, “Like Apple, this nation of immigrants has always found strength in our diversity and hope in the enduring promise of the

Gary Shapiro, president and CEO of the Consumer Technology Association (CTA)®, which represents many of these tech companies, stated in a press release,2 “The President’s latest actions to restrict American access to global talent will hurt our

“THIS NATION OF IMMIGRANTS HAS ALWAYS FOUND STRENGTH IN OUR DIVERSITY….,” APPLE CEO TIM COOK American dream. There is no new prosperity without both.”

Google (and Alphabet) CEO Sundar Pichai, an immigrant himself, tweeted, “Immigration has contributed immensely to America’s economic success, making it a global leader in tech, and also Google the company it is today.”

Twitter wrote through its Office of Public Policy, “This proclamation undermines America’s greatest economic asset: its diversity. People from all over the world come here to join our labor force, pay taxes, and contribute to

country’s competitiveness and will result in other countries gaining what we have lost. On the heels of the President’s action in April to limit immigration by suspending green card applications, this executive order puts even more strain on our nation’s innovators during this unprecedented time.”

Further, Jay Timmons, president and CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), stated in a press release,3 “Leaders should be working to strengthen manufacturing in the United States, but these

actions will make our industry unquestionably weaker. The reality is the visa programs targeted by this executive order boost manufacturing in America and support job creation. We will lose talented individuals to other countries, giving them an added advantage in competing against us.”

The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) points out in its HR Today magazine how, before COVID-19, U.S. employers hired about 450,000 new immigrant workers per year.4 But it also stresses that these workers fill a wide range of jobs, from farm work, food processing, and construction to research science and medicine, and that the response to the coronavirus has brought into stark relief how essential many of these occupations are. It adds, “The current system is strongly skewed toward higherskilled immigrants. Most employment-based green cards require a college education or advanced degree; only 5,000 are available for employers that want to sponsor low-skilled workers.”

1

https://insights.dice.com/2020/06/25/ apple-google-twitter-react-trump-h-1bvisa-ban/ 2 https://www.cta.tech/Resources/ Newsroom/Media-Releases/2020/June/ CTA-Expresses-Concern-Over-ExecutiveOrder-to-Rest 3 https://www.nam.org/nam-strongly-opposes-administrations-immigration-executive-order-9545/?stream=news-insights 4 https://www.shrm.org/pages/custom404. aspx?requestUrl=https://www.shrm. org/hr-today/news/hr-magazine/summer2020/pages/should-the-us-adopt-amerit-based-immigration-system.aspxS

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Visionaries belong here.

Home to vaccine-makers and code-breakers, Maryland is a national leader in innovation.

Thriving communities of entrepreneurs benefit from the steady flow of technically skilled workers from our universities. Maryland is a great place to grow your business.

Open.Maryland.gov

Photo Credit: VisitMontgomery

IN FOCUS Is Your Workplace Ready for the “Next Normal?”

Safety concerns must be balanced with the benefits of a vibrant workplace culture.

•

BY BERNICE BOUCHER, MANAGING DIRECTOR, STRATEGIC CONSULTING, JLL Bernice Boucher, a managing director in JLL’s Strategic Consulting group, is the head of the Workplace Strategy practice in the Americas and a senior leader in the Workplace Solutions practice globally.

A return to normalcy won’t cut it in the postCOVID workplace. How real estate leaders approach this all-new landscape will have lasting implications on our communities’ health, employee safety and well-being, and organizational performance alike.

If it sounds like a tall order, that’s because it is. Yet, tumultuous times have historically inspired innovation. Now is another such moment, as workplace leaders around the globe prepare and initiate plans for a safe and effective return to the office.

Whether you’ve already begun reopening or are still in planning stages, there are a few larger forces to bear in mind as you proceed.

First and foremost, the pandemic has made

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people rethink physical proximity to others. More than before, employees will prize workplaces that offer some privacy as anxiety about potential disease spread is likely to persist. This new concern will inform how many organizations approach workplace layouts and density.

Employees and employers alike have seen the many benefits of flexible work schedules and locations. According to our global survey, more than three-quarters of

interaction.

As you navigate reentry, it will be key to balance profound safety concerns with the vital benefits of a vibrant workplace culture.

Key Considerations in the Quest for Safe, Effective Re-entry Re-entry will look different for every organization, but there are common areas to explore as you plot your course:

Plan for safe, effective space reactivation. How and when should people return to the workplace?

Will a staggered or rotational approach be in order? How can you create socially distant floor plans? As you weigh

EMPLOYEES AND EMPLOYERS ALIKE HAVE SEEN THE MANY BENEFITS OF FLEXIBLE WORK SCHEDULES AND LOCATIONS. organizations reported that 80 percent or more of their personnel worked from home in April and May.1 Notably, only 34.5 percent of employees today expect to go back into the office full-time, without at least some portion of their work taking place at home.

But trimming workplace density alone won’t be the answer for most organizations. With economic uncertainty looming, opportunities to collaborate, concentrate, and innovate will all be critical to stimulating business performance. Plus, isolation has left many people craving

these questions, consider both objective measures, like government mandates, as well as knowledge of your unique workplace culture and needs. For many organizations, this will involve an ongoing conversation with landlords to understand what their role is in determining workplace capacity, as well as what they will provide in terms of cleaning, security, and safe access to shared amenities.

Support workplace safety, security, and health for all employees and visitors. From implementing

temperature scans and providing face masks, to stepping up visitor screenings and designating “experience ambassadors,” there are a few concrete ways to reduce the chances of disease transmission at work. No matter which safeguards you put in place, clear communication of your risk mitigation efforts will be critical.

Revitalize real estate operations. How can you keep properties and workplaces safe and productive through and beyond the pandemic?

Take a range of proactive steps now to help keep in motion the many moving parts. For example, now is the time to ensure proper HVAC functionality and step up janitorial standards and identify low or no-cost energy savings opportunities.

As real estate professionals, we are bound to help our organizations balance health, safety, and financial priorities. But how we help meet those objectives will depend on a range of re-entry factors and best practices.

It’s going to take fresh ideas, data-driven insights, and a measured approach to deliver workspaces that help companies — and the people who bring them to life — thrive in a postCOVID reality. Is your organization prepared for the next normal?

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https://www.us.jll.com/content/dam/jll-com/ documents/pdf/personalized-benchmarking/jll-global-2020-op-benchmarking-reportdesign-COVID19-workplace-reentry.pdf

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8/27/20 9:59 AM

1

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IN FOCUS Sale-Leasebacks Help Companies Leverage Capital Companies feeling the strain of the COVID-19 shutdown are finding new opportunities in sale-leasebacks.

•

BY JEFF BERRYHILL, PRINCIPAL, STONEMONT FINANCIAL GROUP

Jeff Berryhill is a principal at Stonemont Financial Group and leads the firm’s Net Lease line of business.

Jeff has over 18 years of real estate, capital markets, and banking experience.

As the U.S. economy begins to dig itself out of a deep hole caused by the COVID-19 crisis, many businesses now face the stark reality of a substantially reduced pool of working capital along with credit lines that will likely not thaw out anytime soon. Yet despite those challenges, retailers, logistics firms, and other industrial real estate users are now finding new opportunities in the saleleaseback arena that are enabling companies to quickly unlock capital and increase cash flow.

Now more than ever, businesses are making decisions to diversify their existing capital sources in order to beef up their reserves for immediate

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needs such as payroll, operations, and other core business activities.

Private equity groups have recently seen a substantial uptick in saleleaseback inquiries from both new and existing clients, with the majority of deals structured within a triple net lease model that allows sellers to retain possession of facilities vital to operations under

over the last few months, particularly those in the transportation and logistics space. We recently completed transactions with two companies on industrial service facility assets. These types of assets represent the critical backbone that supports the supply chain industry, and include truck terminals, fleet maintenance, drayage, container, and trailer storage. Conditions have forced these companies to think strategically about their capital and where it can be redeployed to add greater value.

When we sit down together with a client and

BY MAKING INFORMED DECISIONS ON CAPITAL ALLOCATION, COMPANIES OF ALL SHAPES AND SIZES WILL BE ABLE TO POSITION THEMSELVES FOR FUTURE GROWTH AND SUCCESS. a long-term lease. The sale-leaseback is not a new concept to the market nor is it only beneficial in times of economic duress. However, decisionmakers should know that rent terms for prospective sellers have probably never been in a more favorable position thanks to record-low interest rates.

Advantages of Sale-Leaseback Transactions Our firm has been advising a variety of industrial real estate users on potential transactions

review each category on a line-by-line basis, it quickly becomes apparent that owner-occupied real estate is a significant weight on the balance sheet that’s generating minimal returns at best.

On the surface, smart non-real estate operating companies would never commit to a property that’s only producing an annual return of 6 to 7 percent. This makes a sale-leaseback transaction a viable option for any entity that has substantial equity tied up in real estate yet is not

in the real estate investment business itself.

In addition to being able to pay down debt, retain operational control, and bolster core business activities, a saleleaseback transaction also supplies a company with dry powder for acquisitions that align with its long-term growth plans. Simply put, there are businesses that will survive COVID-19 and those that will not. The influx of working capital generated through a sale-leaseback deal gives a leg up to companies that need to move swiftly on fleeting opportunities that often attract multiple competitors. The potential longterm benefits for these fire-sale acquisitions can play a key role in helping to fast-forward overall growth and expansion, another compelling advantage provided by the sale-leaseback model.

Ultimately, we will likely see a sustained increase in sale-leaseback transactions over the next several months given the current pressure points and growing demand for new capital sources. By making informed decisions on capital allocation through an efficient strategy that effectively leverages physical assets, companies of all shapes and sizes will be able to navigate the new normal and position themselves for future growth and success

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8/27/20 11:50 AM

FIRST PERSON BRYAN JENSEN CHAIRMAN & EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT ST. ONGE COMPANY Will more companies be re-shoring or nearshoring as a result of the global pandemic?

Jensen: For certain, most companies are closely examining the options available to them to avoid future supply chain interruptions. Part of the challenge of making a decision on a future sourcing direction is that this story isn’t over. As the pandemic progresses, every week, sometimes every day, brings new information to light regarding risks associated with both the supply available for companies to transact business, as well as the fluctuations in the demand associated with their specific product offerings. It is very safe to say that at present, just about every company is examining their options, but the jury is still out on what strategies they will pursue.

Will companies be using multiple sources or taking other measures to mitigate risk?

Jensen: Evaluating multiple sources is absolutely a strategy companies are entertaining in their process of identifying strategies available to them to mitigate risk.

If the pandemic has shown us anything, particularly in the early stages of the global pandemic when China was the country most severely affected, it is that any supply chain that sources from a single geographic area is exposed to a disruption in that area, no matter where it is. This must be measured against any cost inefficiencies experienced by spreading volume out across multiple sources of supply.

Should companies beef up their inventories so as not to be caught short if another crisis or second wave of the virus takes hold?

Jensen: First let’s exclude companies that supply products necessary to combat a pandemic or natural disaster and the like. These companies, or the organizations to which they sell, would be increasing inventories (and managing expiry dates on time-sensitive inventory) to ensure healthcare workers always have the PPE they might need. This is not so much an inventory management approach, but more a stockpile management requirement.

For inventories that are NOT critical to life safety in the face of a pandemic or similar disaster, any added inventory should be viewed as an insurance policy. Is the extra cost of inventory worth the possible sales shortfall or as protection against market share loss?

Will the inventory “age” gracefully — is it staple product that does not expire or “go out of fashion”? While many of our clients are asking these questions, none have

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purposefully moved to increase their days of supply in their on-hand inventories yet.

With more consumers shopping online, how should companies adjust their inventories/ supply chains?

Jensen: This is very dependent on the nature of any brick-and-mortar channel a company may (or may not) already support.

Clearly an e-commerce-only supply chain will need to increase its inventory as appropriate to maintain its in-stock position in the face of rising order demand. If that demand is high enough (and there is confidence the volumes will remain high enough to justify such a decision after the pandemic is brought under control), then consideration should be given to adding facilities within the supplier’s network to increase responsiveness and reduce outbound freight costs.

If a multi-channel supply chain (brick-and-mortar and e-commerce) cannot move product through its stores but is experiencing a surge in e-commerce volume, it may not need to adjust its inventory at all. The location of that inventory, should it not be able to effectively service e-commerce order profiles from its brickand-mortar distribution replenishment centers, may need to be adjusted. If centers can be repurposed to allow for e-commerce shipping from as close to the consumer as possible, then companies can reap the benefit of increased responsiveness and reduced freight costs.

How will warehouse/distribution space be impacted by these new supply chain strategies?

Jensen: Space demand is, as you would expect, up compared to expectations in light of a more than 30

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8/27/20 9:53 AM

percent drop in recent GDP numbers. Sales that were formally satisfied through retail space transactions are now executed online and require industrial real estate assets to house the operations needed to satisfy the growing direct-to-consumer demand. Ironically, some of the demand for additional space came from shuttered retailers without a significant e-commerce channel that needed space to house increasing inventory levels for goods that were en route to them when the retail stores where shuttered in March and April.

What last-mile delivery strategies are companies employing?

Jensen: There are several they are pursuing dependent upon their particular channel and the customer demands associated with it, as well as their logistics infrastructure and how quickly they might modify it.

Grocery retailers are a singular example of utilizing existing store infrastructure to satisfy increased direct-toconsumer last-mile delivery needs. They are using their Point of Sale (POS) locations to assemble grocery orders from online shoppers and then providing curbside pickup or home delivery to those customers. Home delivery is generally achieved using a third-party delivery service.

Other organizations drive their entire solution for lastmile delivery to a third party (other than UPS, FedEx or USPS.) Even Amazon has employed “Amazon” vans for last-mile delivery that are merely contractors, not Amazon employees or fleet drivers, to achieve the last-mile delivery in the landscape of increased demand.

Other organizations have opportunistically taken advantage of real estate assets that have become attractively priced in light of the different supply chain pressures associated with the pandemic. Dark stores, retail POS locations that have shuttered and are available to serve as micro-fulfillment centers or last-mile crossdock centers, are utilized to allow for responsiveness to last-mile demands. Shuttered grocery or big-box stores or similar locations with conventional docks available for inbound and outbound activity are prime candidates for this type of supply chain appropriation. Still others are building out their fulfillment center when they are certain the increased demand currently being experienced will not ebb too significantly as the pandemic comes under control.

Has the current healthcare crisis prompted distributors to increase their automation processes?

cesses in a facility within a few months. It may seem hard to believe, but if you mark the significant impact period of the pandemic in the U.S. as having started in early March, we are only five months in. Automated systems can assist in ensuring associates remain a desired distance away from each other, but the evaluation, design, manufacture, and implementation of the appropriate automated or mechanized system easily can require nine months to more than a year.

Many companies are evaluating such applications, but the difficulty of that evaluation process is exacerbated by the sudden atypical rise in e-commerce volumes. Once the pandemic is brought under control and things return to something closer to pre-pandemic reality, what will the e-commerce volumes be? As mentioned, that is a relative unknown. There is a large spread of e-commerce volumes post-pandemic, and the justification for investment in automation or mechanization is largely driven by volume (which drives the amount of labor needed in an operation). This moving target of intermediate to longer-term volumes makes it difficult to properly and confidently evaluate the best investment with an appropriate return in facility automation right now. What is right for “now” may not be right for next year.

Is there anything else you would like to add?

Jensen: The pandemic has been a type of time machine for e-commerce sales, catapulting us 10 years into the future, if only for a brief period. All businesses should learn from the challenges they are facing and develop solid, fiscally prudent, and customer-sensitive long-term plans to address the inevitably increasing e-commerce channel in order to secure and establish their competitive advantage. We have seen what the future will be like. And while in some ways the future is now, there is also no excuse not to prepare for it.

THE ASSIGNMENT Area Development’s editor recently asked Bryan Jensen of St. Onge Company (www.stonge.com) about the effects of the global pandemic on company supply chains. St. Onge is a world-recognized supply chain strategy and logistics consulting firm.

Jensen: It is difficult to increase the automated pro-

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BUSINESS GLOBALIZATION

Changing Markets in Uncertain Times The pandemic’s effect on workforce, supply chain, and government support will affect your company’s location decisions, increasing risks while also presenting new opportunities.

By David Hickey, Global Site Selection Leader, Hickey and Associates

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s corporate decision-makers develop their business strategies for the future, the markets they consider are rapidly changing. This dynamic trend was already in place before the onset of the global COVID-19 pandemic as businesses sought to alleviate concentration risk. With the unprecedented impacts on the global economy of the current public health crisis, however, the search for alternative locations has taken on new urgency and quickly became a priority.

While there is still much to be determined about the long-term economic effects of the pandemic (daily cases continue to reach alltime highs in the United States, as of the writing of this piece), we have

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already seen incredible impacts on the workforce, supply chain, and government support for business.

All of these factors will play significant roles in the location decisionmaking process for business leaders for years to come.

Shifting Workforce Immediately ahead of COVID-19 reaching American soil, the nation was in a full employment situation.

Jobless claims were at 50-year lows as the unemployment rate sat at 3.5 percent. Businesses were facing hiring challenges across the country with extremely tight labor markets.

Fast forward a matter of weeks to find a virtually opposite situation.

In what seemed to be an overnight phenomenon, the unemployment

rate spiked to 14.7 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) April 2020 Jobs Report1 (and many economists estimate that the actual number may be in excess of 20 percent).

Although these economic pains were felt across the United States, the effects were not uniform, and the swift changes in the employment situation did hit certain markets harder than others. Among the worst hit was Los Angeles County, where as many as one in four adults found themselves out of work.

With these variances across U.S. markets, many business leaders may face challenging situations, while others may find new opportunities. COVID-19 has led to several markets seeing talent leave their respective regions to avoid the crisis.

According to The New York Times,2 approximately more than 400,000 residents left New York City alone between March and May, a troubling figure, especially in the finance, creative, and technology sectors. No one knows how many will ultimately return, which creates an uncertain environment going forward. Serious discussions have picked up around a major return of suburban corporate campuses as a result, along with changing views on public transportation, open office designs, and remote working.

When considering unemployment rates across the American landscape, the markets seeing the

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largest spikes had a direct correlation with their occupational concentration by industry. For example, the state of Nevada quickly saw its unemployment rate jump above 30 percent over several weeks. With an economy heavily dependent on hospitality and tourism, the state went from 2,300 jobless claims in early March to over 90,000 in a two-week span.

Leveraging Bureau of Labor Statistics data, we’ve taken a look at their index of the most impacted markets due to the pandemic spread, those that were facing a crisis with unique industry impacts. This index allows for location strategists to evaluate for concentration risk — a heavy reliance on markets that place ultimate risk to the business.

According to the index, the following are the markets facing the highest impact from unemployment:

• Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV Metro Area • Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI Metro Area • Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ Metro Area • Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ Metro Area yrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, •M SC-NC Metro Area

While these downturns are tough on communities and effected companies, the loss of employment can spawn opportunity for other companies. For example, e-commerce giant Amazon was able to take advantage of a newly available workforce as they ramped up to address rapidly growing consumer demands. In the opening weeks of the pandemic, Amazon reportedly hired 175,000 temporary workers for fulfillment centers.

Most of these jobs won’t end up being just short-term hires, as the company has pledged to bring on at least 125,000 as full-time employees.

We expect to see this trend continue into the future as businesses focus on talent as a major driver in location decisions. Companies will leverage these available workers — even if from a completely different sector — for their future growth strategies.

Disruptive Supply Chain Over recent years, companies have invested extensively in optimizing their global supply chains so that within a couple days, or even in a couple hours for some, consumers began to have desired goods delivered to their doorsteps. However, due to increasing costs and geopolitical risks, including a trade war between the United States and China, businesses have been diversifying their global supply chains. Then, entering into a once-acentury pandemic that has impacted the entire world, we have a broader environment that has heightened awareness for diversification as an expedited mandate.

When it comes to evaluating increasing costs in a supply chain, there are gradual trends logistics experts will review. At or near the top are shipping and labor costs, focused on particular areas of the supply chain dependent on the industry. In the United States, logistics operators constantly evaluate costs and risk

between the key seaports. From there, they evaluate rail and truck rates across the various regions. These costs per load can vary immensely from one region to another, and risk — especially with regard to labor strikes and climatic events — are prevalent.

With this constant evaluation, new markets are emerging as key pressure points in the domestic and global supply chain. Heavy dependence on critical ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach may be giving way to a drastic change in importing and exporting out of the Port of Virginia and Savannah, for example.

As the pandemic began impacting the Asia-Pacific region in early 2020, the global supply chain was immediately disrupted, especially for goods coming out of China. Disruptions didn’t just lead to shipping delays, logistics operators also witnessed unprecedented spikes in costs.

According to data analyzed by Bloomberg experts,3 shipping costs out of Hong Kong and Shanghai more than tripled in early 2020. Within hours of these costs being realized, along with extended, often unpredictable lead times, manufacturers began looking toward alternative suppliers in other global markets, many never previously considered.

Several national governments have established fiscal and trade policies to support and incentivize supply chain diversification. In 2020, the Japanese government approved over USD $2.2 billion in direct assistance for its businesses to diversify their supply chains, with a particular focus on exiting China. Approximately USD $2 billion was allocated to support high-value industries to return production back to Japan, with USD $200 million to aid in shifting their supply chain to other trading partners, especially in key ASEAN markets. We expect this trend to continue around the world as the United States, France, and others are implementing similar fiscal measures.

Pivoting Support As businesses evaluate their future strategies and look to new markets, governments and economic development organizations are pivoting the way they provide support. As previously mentioned in the case of Japan, policymakers are developing support mechanisms to provide direct assistance bespoke to their national and community needs and industry targets.

In recent years, we’ve seen governments shift their support for certain industries in favor of new and nascent sectors. For example, markets like Bangalore and Manila — known for software development and business process outsourcing, respectively — have shifted their incentives to more knowledge-intensive and high-growth businesses.

In the United States, we’ve seen similar trends as governments have pivoted their focus toward industries

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BUSINESS GLOBALIZATION

What Does the Future Hold for FDI from Europe?

The coronavirus pandemic has affected foreign direct investment from Europe, but some positive signs are seen going forward.

By Alexandra Segers

Impact of Tariffs and Coronavirus on Projects – a Timeline USA Tariffs on Chinese goods March 8, 2018

China Tariffs on U.S. goods

President Trump signs tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and solar panels for all nations incl. China

April 2, 2018

15/25% on 3 billion USD

July 6, 2018

25% on 34 billion USD

25% on 34 billion USD

August 23, 2018

25% on 50 billion USD

25% on 50 billion USD

September 24, 2018

25% on 50 billion USD 10% on 200 billion USD

25% on 50 billion USD 5/10% on 60 billion USD

September 30, 2018

USMCA agreement was announced with

May 10, 2019

25% on 250 billion USD

Since 2018

President Trump threatens to impose 20-25% tariffs on European cars

March 16, 2020

Suspension of entry for people from Schengen Countries and China in order to limit the coronavirus spread

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25% on 110 billion USD

H

aving been in the site selection business for more than 20 years, jumping on and off airplanes was at least a weekly procedure. Global supply chains were in place, and the automotive industry was the best example for internationalization. All before the unimaginable happened — an unknown virus stopped everything.

Even prior to the pandemic, the last year had not been easy. The uncertainty of the tariffs had impacted many project decisions. Also, the threat by the Trump administration to issue another 20–25 percent tariffs on cars being imported from the European Union did not help clients feel comfortable to announce an automotive-related project in the U.S. The supply chain for cars — and also airplanes — is nowadays very complex. An A380 consists of four million parts: 2.5 million produced by 1,500 companies from 30 countries. A trade discussion disrupts the entire global supply chain.

The U.S. exports $56.1 billion worth of automobiles. German OEM BMW AG manufactures $10.5 billion of this total at their U.S. plant in Greer, S.C. BMW builds several different models in the U.S. and exports 70 percent. Before the tariff discussions and the coronavirus pandemic, shipping parts from other regions of the world was not a problem.

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The U.S. has finalized one trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. As confirmed by each participating country, the updated United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) allows the three countries to continue their ongoing tariff-free trade in qualifying goods and services within North America. According to the new USMCA, the local content is now set to 75 percent.

Several German OEMs ship engines and transmissions to the United States. They will now have to adjust their supply chain.

The trade war with China and also Europe has not been resolved, and there is currently not much progress.

The election in the U.S. in November will likely further postpone this process.

The U.S.-China Trade War The trade deficit between the U.S. and China amounts to US$375 billion. China responded to President Trump’s actions strongly from the beginning and announced it would retaliate against all tariffs imposed by the U.S. The initial retaliation from China was to cancel all its import contracts for American soybean. Thereafter, China issued a tariff of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of exports from the United States.

In response to United States’ second round of tariffs, China threatened that it would impose tariffs on U.S. exports including American pork, electric vehicles, and other goods worth $60 billion. Globally, consumers who are buying U.S.-made products have been suffering by paying much higher prices for the finished products.

Now, in addition, the global pandemic has had a massive impact on the global supply chain leading to a serious disruption of the overall supply cycle. U.S.-based manufacturing companies relying on Chinese parts and components face major disruptions.

More and more companies have already shifted their manufacturing bases to countries like Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam, where the labor force is more affordable than in China. In the last few years, Thailand has seen many large foreign investments mainly from the automotive industry and its supply base. This is beneficial for firms that were previously exporting their products directly from China into the United States.

The tariff discussions as well as the COVID-19 pandemic will change the thinking of many companies. It seems to be much safer to manufacture closer to where they sell their products. Production that is targeted for the U.S. and currently executed in China will be brought

back or nearby. Canada, with its strong labor market and friendly immigration policies — as well as Mexico, which already has a trade agreement with Europe in place — will benefit from a near-shoring location trend.

And the U.S. is also still very attractive with its competitive energy costs. It is predicted that up to 800 million square feet of warehousing, logistics, and manufacturing space will be required in North America subsequent to the coronavirus crisis.

Impact on Europe Europe has been impacted hard by COVID-19. German exports plunged by one third in April. Some €75.7 billion of goods were sold to foreign countries in April — 31.1 percent less than in the month prior. German imports also decreased by 21.6 percent, although imports from the U.S. increased in April by 2.4 percent.

Nations that were impacted very strongly by the global pandemic strongly reduced their imports from Germany. For example, the U.S. decreased imports from Germany by 35.8 percent, Italy by 40.1 percent, and France by 48.3 percent. However, German exports to China were only reduced by 12.6 percent to €7.2 billion.

Currently, among the main problems for European companies considering locating in the U.S. are the travel and visa restrictions, issued to prevent the coronavirus spreading. Despite the hurdles mentioned, the feedback from clients is very positive. One European manufacturer that had started its site selection last year was in the final selection stage when the COVID-19 lockdown started. As the owner could not travel to the U.S. and participate in the final site visits, all remaining sites anticipated longer delays. But surprisingly, a decision was made in the middle of the pandemic and the project will be announced shortly.

Some Positive Signs Speaking with some experts in the manufacturing industry, I find their outlook is also quite positive. Barbara Boedenauer, partner at The Executive Consulting, Inc., is a native of Austria and works with a lot of European companies and chambers of commerce. Her company collects and provides information for market research and determines growth potential, among other things.

She has received many inquires recently and is very optimistic that as soon as the travel restrictions are lifted, investment in the U.S. will pick up again.

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COVER STORY

While companies still need a skilled, highly educated workforce, the COVID-19 pandemic and increased reliance on remote working are prompting them to rethink their location decisions.

TO CALL THE ROAD that most metro areas have

THE NEXT RECOVERY: REGIONAL LEADERS & LAGGARDS

traveled this year rocky would be akin to labeling Mount Everest a speed bump. But the most turbulent period of our lifetimes will eventually give way to a sustained recovery. And when it does, certain types of metro areas are in far better shape to take advantage.

In the short run, places that suffered the steepest job and income losses will struggle most, which bodes especially ill for the Northeast and tourismdependent Hawaii and Nevada. But what happens after that? Much depends on the course of the virus, such as whether outbreaks in the South and West are contained and if large cities manage to avoid a second wave. But the places that boast the best prospects in the years to come will be those with a strong work force and the ability to capitalize upon changing preferences.

Population Density, Workforce Quality, and College Degrees Specifically, the key trade-off will likely be that between workforce quality and population density. The two metrics are highly correlated, as skilled workers are more likely to congregate in big cities.

But individuals will increasingly seek more space to protect themselves against COVID-19 transmission or future outbreaks. Further, the cost disadvantages borne by firms in the nation’s most densely populated markets will grow far less palatable given the seamlessness with which companies have transitioned to remote work.

By Adam Kamins, Director, Economic Research, Moody’s Analytics

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So which of the 100 largest metro areas are best positioned? Many college towns stand out, although their educational requirements may be somewhat inflated. Still, it makes sense that dynamic but mid-sized economies built around a major university, such as Durham, N.C., and Madison, Wisc., could enjoy a surge in growth in the years to come. This assumes that students will return to campus, but that seems likely by 2021–22 given the limitations of online learning and the desire for young adults to experience the social elements of college.

Elsewhere, Denver and Salt Lake City are very well-positioned to retake their crown as two of the fastest-rising metro areas in the U.S. Washington, D.C., is among the more densely populated metro areas in the nation, but extremely high educational attainment and lower density than other big Northeast hubs — owing in part to a longstanding height limit on buildings — leave it in better shape than the rest of the region. Somewhat more isolated places in the Midwest that face few land constraints including Omaha, Neb., and Des Moines, Iowa, could benefit as well, especially if the farm sector stabilizes under a new administration that pursues a less confrontational approach to trade.

Which econom metro i survivees will pandem the ic?

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SOME METRO AREAS ARE BETTER POSITIONED proximity is viewed as inherently risky.

Potential Pain for Big Cities

Another related comparison involves density and the share of adults with a college degree. An advantage of this measure is that it allows metro divisions to be included in the analysis, whereas educational requirements are

generally available only at the broader metro-area level.

Fast-growing tech hubs in the West and South lead based on this metric. Silicon Valley is nobody’s idea of an upand-coming economy.

THE PLACES THAT BOAST THE BEST PROSPECTS IN THE YEARS TO COME WILL BE THOSE WITH A STRONG WORK FORCE AND THE ABILITY TO CAPITALIZE UPON CHANGING PREFERENCES.

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But there is a notable contrast between the San Jose area, with its sprawling tech campuses, and tightly packed San Francisco. Similarly, Raleigh, N.C., and Austin Texas — two rapidly growing metro areas — could prove even more attractive in a new, postCOVID-19 world.

Other areas to watch include Seattle and Minneapolis, both of which are not as densely populated as alternative white-collar hubs in their regions but feature highly educated workforces. Meanwhile, the draw of suburban areas should not be overlooked.

The Silver Spring, Md.; Montgomery-BucksChester County, Pa.; and Cambridge, Mass., metro divisions could become appealing alternatives to their neighboring cities in a world in which physical

But a shift toward less densely populated areas will come at the expense of some of the large cities that led the way out of the last recession.

New York City, which was decimated by the virus during spring, will be especially scarred. Its greatest asset is a large, skilled workforce that is drawn to the fast-paced and highly interactive nature of life in the Big Apple. Boston and San Francisco boast a similar profile. Although each city is resilient enough to eventually regain its footing, increased net outmigration is likely in the medium term.

While urban flight will eventually abate, the perception of cities among today’s young adults and teenagers may be colored by the impact of COVID-19.

That would make them more likely than their predecessors to eventually opt for less densely packed pastures.

These patterns would dilute the labor force advantage that big cities boast. Combine this with the diminished importance of physical proximity in a world in

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SUBURBS, SOUTH, AND WEST BENEFIT MOST which remote meetings and conferences are now commonplace, and many firms are beginning to reconsider whether an address in a large city justifies the cost. Many New York City-based banks were already shifting operations to the South and West before COVID-19, and this trend will accelerate in the coming years. Further, increased remote work means that the value of living near one’s office will diminish, putting downward pressure on residential real estate prices in big cities.

The potential for pain in cities is also evident when examining commuting preferences across the nation. According to the American Community Survey, 9 of the 13 most public transportation-reliant metro areas in the nation are located in the Northeast.

Although the risks of riding the subway to work, for example, can be mitigated through proper precautions, the perception of danger could be enough to repel some potential residents.

This stands in stark contrast to places in the South and Midwest, such as Kansas City, Mo.; Indianapolis, Ind.; Nashville Tenn.; and the Fort Worth, Texas, division. All four are home to at least one million

SUBWAY RELIANCE HURTS NORTHEAST MOST

workers, of which less than 1 percent commute via public transportation. This will likely prove appealing in the years to come as young, educated workers consider the trade-off between

compact urban spaces and more car-dependent areas.

Quality of Life and Remote Workers Similarly, the preva-

lence of remote working tells an important story.

Not only does the ability to work from home shelter workers from the risks associated with disease spread, but if an outsize share of workers telecom-

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FLEXIBILITY BOLSTERS ROCKIES MOST

mutes, it signals that an area is desirable for nonwork reasons.

As more workers make location decisions based on personal considerations, those areas that

have attracted remote workers for years are especially well positioned.

Such places are generally those that are considered desirable to live in but relatively isolated.

MANY FIRMS ARE BEGINNING TO RECONSIDER WHETHER AN ADDRESS IN A LARGE CITY JUSTIFIES THE COST.

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The Mountain West fits this description quite well, with Colorado easily the most work-from-home reliant state in the nation.

The West Coast, Southeast, and northern New England are also above average in this regard.

Among metro areas, those with a large tech sector are especially friendly to remote arrangements. Flexible requirements, such as asking employees to come to work once or twice per week, should grow more common in the aftermath of COVID-19. This will make long commutes less problematic, while putting second-tier cities with desirable amenities and a healthy tech economy in the sweet spot. Austin, Texas; Denver, Col.; Portland Ore.; and Raleigh,

N.C. all fit the bill, and they already boast the highest share of remote workers among metro areas with at least half a million people.

Desirable weather and amenities also put areas such as Phoenix, Ariz.; and Tampa and West Palm Beach, Fla., near the top of the list. But an elevated reliance on tourism for these economies can undermine any advantage given that jobs in leisure/ hospitality generally require an in-person presence. This especially holds back popular work-fromhome metro areas like Las Vegas and Orlando.

Many of these places read like a who’s who of fast-growing areas in recent years. Generally, low costs and skilled workforces have been their recipe for success.

Typically, that edge would diminish in the early stages of a recovery, as disinflation narrows cost differences and pushes big cities to the fore. This time around, however, the places that were flying highest entering 2020 will likely be the first to approach their previous peaks, while their larger counterparts embark on an arduous uphill climb. n

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BUSINESS GLOBALIZATION/LOGISTICS

A Heightened Focus on Reshoring As costs and risks of lengthy supply chains become even more apparent in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, more U.S. companies may consider reshoring their operations to the Americas.

By Brian Gallagher, Vice President, Corporate Development, Graycor

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he COVID-19 pandemic exposed the risks inherent in the global supply chain, particularly the worldwide reliance on China for medical supplies. The supply chain turbulence experienced during the pandemic undoubtedly will impact future business decisions, extending beyond medicine to other industries, including electronics, aerospace, automobiles, defense, consumer products, and technology.

Incentivizing Reshoring Manufacturing companies accelerated moving production to low-cost manufacturing countries (known as offshoring) in the early 1990s. In the rush to globalize, key manufacturing sectors were abandoned in the United States. But now that the vulnerabilities of doing so have been exposed, there is talk of “de-globalization,” or reshoring. Reshoring includes not only the relocation of existing manufacturing back to the United States, but new greenfield investment in domestic plants that might have gone overseas. A related term is “near-shoring,” which refers to companies bringing production back to countries near the United States (usually Mexico or Canada).

The European Union (EU), Japan, and United States are among the nations that have publicly discussed decreasing their trade dependency on China. For example, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said he’d like to see supply chains based in the United States.1 Government officials have put forward the idea of paying for moving costs associated with bringing manufacturing facilities back.2 Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told

Fox Business network the COVID-19 outbreak could encourage American manufacturers to return manufacturing to North America.3 Various legislation has also been introduced that might encourage reshoring.

For the United States, this development follows a pre-existing decline in business relations with China, as the two countries have been in a trade war since 2018.

These facts put the United States on a clear trend for incentivizing reshoring. The previous focus on the lowest cost scenario, which led to growth in China and Southeast Asia, will now become more balanced as companies look to reduce risk.

This should benefit U.S. locations as more companies seek to locate production facilities close to the customers they serve and increase redundancy.

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eam nstr inging w o A d t of br RING efi TU ben UFAC e is a T MANck homPSTAR ba JUM S. U. ly like to the MY. NO ECO

The Benefits of Reshoring Having a local supply chain reduces variables that may cause disruption. Local supply chains also tend to be flexible and agile. Ordering from nearby suppliers allows for ordering more (or fewer) quantities on shorter notice — an important factor when unforeseen circumstances happen.

Even before COVID-19 challenged the distribution of critical items, manufacturing goods closer to where they are sold had been recognized as a way for companies to achieve lower distribution costs. A tighter supply chain has the benefit of ensuring that quality standards can be met; it is also a safeguard for intellectual property.

A Thomas Industrial Survey conducted in April 2020 found 64 percent of manufacturers considered themselves “likely” to bring manufacturing production and sourcing back to North America.4 This represented a 10 percent increase in reshoring interest since Thomas’s March 2020 survey.

Some of the incentives that originally drove offshoring have declined in value or even disappeared. Manufacturers based in China have gradually experienced rising costs, especially labor costs. The Trump administration, prior to COVID-19, was focused on investing in apprenticeship programs, reducing regulations, and other probusiness measures.

A downstream benefit of bringing manufacturing back home is a likely jumpstart to the U.S. economy, especially if low-interest loans and tax incentives are available.

Reuters has covered the Trump administration’s push to implement tax incentives and potential re-shoring subsidies.5 Several state commerce departments and regional economic groups are developing incentive packages and soft-landing programs for companies looking to reshore.

Kearney’s seventh annual Reshoring Index revealed a dramatic reversal of a five-year trend as U.S manufacturing in 2019 commanded a greater share compared to low-cost Asian countries.6 A new reshoring index developed by the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA)

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reported that the United States regained some of its manufacturing base in 2019,7 and the share of American-made manufacturing goods consumed in the U.S. market jumped significantly in 2019.

Special Challenges One factor that drove offshoring in the 1990s was the rising cost of labor in the United States. Since that time, the skilled labor shortage made it harder to find and hire workers. Consequently, building resiliency and bringing manufacturing back to the United States will have to be concurrent with greater use of automation and robots.

Fortunately, U.S. manufacturers have already been investing in automation, robotics, and 3D printing, which will smooth the path for reshoring. For example, auto manufacturers are making use of robots with “vision” to accomplish detailed assembly work on the factory floor, as well as robots with long arms for welding and for coating/sealing. Electronics manufacturers also benefit from the precision robots offer, and the electronics industry has made some of the greatest strides in using automation, with tasks including additive manufacturing and 3D printed electronics.

The Thomas Industrial Survey found that one in four U.S. manufacturers were considering expanding industrial automation as a result of COVID-19.

The Reshoring Decision Like most aspects of business and capital planning, addressing the unknowns one step at a time is the key to success. Individual manufacturers must conduct a comprehensive cost analysis of the overall benefits of reshoring. They must also consider advantages and disadvantages for every aspect of production.

Hidden costs are a factor. For example, environmental regulations, corporate tax rates, the extent of local infrastructure available to a given site, workforce factors, and more are important variables. Conversely, costs other than labor are relevant when assessing the benefits associated with offshore facilities. According to the Association for Manufacturing Excellence, “Most companies make sourcing decisions based solely on price, oftentimes resulting in a 20 to 30 percent miscalculation of actual offshoring costs.”8 Fortunately, many resources are available to help owners and other decision-makers undertake the significant challenge of bringing manufacturing back from overseas. The Reshoring Initiative (RI) offers a free online tool, the total cost of ownership (TCO) estimator,9 which helps companies compare all relevant factors that will influence costs associated with offshoring, including overhead, balance sheet, risks, corporate strategy, etc.

The Import Substitution Program (ISP), also available through the Reshoring Initiative, helps importing companies produce or source more domestically. According to the RI, “Customized versions of ISP are available for U.S. manufacturing companies, technology suppliers, trade associations, economic development organizafor free site information, visit us online at www.areadevelopment.com

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tions (EDOs), and manufacturing extension partnerships (MEPs). Consistent use of the program would increase domestic manufacturing by about 10 percent.”

Part of the ISP (although it is also available “a la carte”) is the RI’s supply chain gap program. The RI has developed a list of “gaps,” where there is minimal domestic production and a large volume of imports. To participate in the program, manufacturers or EDOs work with RI to identify products that are most desirable to produce domestically. Domestic firms are identified and — assisted by the EDO and RI — supported during the process of opening a local factory.

Another resource is the Reshoring Institute, which has assembled a large body of statistics and research.

The Reshoring Institute has invited states to provide economic profiles and descriptions of incentives offered in the state, improving the relevance to firms looking for location-specific reshoring information. The research is made available to the public at no charge.

The U.S. Economic Development Administration, a bureau within the U.S. Department of Commerce, has developed the Americas Competitiveness Exchange (ACE) program, which brings together up to 50 seniorlevel government, business, policy, and economic decision-makers from across the Americas. These experts establish productive partnerships and collaborations

that make on-the-ground progress in developing manufacturing in the Americas.

Once a manufacturer has determined the advisability of updating or building a facility in (or near) the Americas, the company should partner with an industrial contractor during the earliest planning stages. An experienced contractor will have the knowledge base to help define the cost, schedule, and overall scope for a given project to help the owner achieve its desired outcomes.

When executed with caution, bringing all available knowledge to bear on the reshoring process, manufacturers may realize substantial gains by bringing facilities back from overseas. By extension, the entire U.S. economy — not to mention citizens’ welfare — may also reap benefits. n 1

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/china-will-be-held-accountable-for-coronavirussays-white-house-economic-advisor-larry-kudlow.html https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/10/kudlow-pay-the-moving-costsof-american-companies-leaving-china/#1d2c736c13c6 3 https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/480644-ross-suggests-coronavirus-inchina-will-help-return-jobs-to-north 4 https://business.thomasnet.com/press-room/news-highlights/april-2020-covid-19survey-results 5 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-china/trump-administrationpushing-to-rip-global-supply-chains-from-china-officials-idUSKBN22G0BZ 6 https://www.kearney.com/documents/20152/5708085/2020+Reshoring+Index.pdf/ ba38cd1e-c2a8-08ed-5095-2e3e8c93e142?t=1586268199800&utm_medium=pr&utm_ source=prnewswire&utm_campaign=2020ReshoringIndex 7 https://www.prosperousamerica.org/op_ed_the_us_finally_saw_some_reshoring_ action_in_2019 8 https://www.ame.org/target/articles/2020/12-vital-actions-get-your-business-restarted-right 9 https://www.reshorenow.org/tco-estimator/ 2

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N S U LTA O N C 11th Annual

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TOP STATES for Doing

Top 20 States 1. Georgia 2. Tennessee

Business 2020 SURVEY

3. South Carolina 4. Texas 5. North Carolina 6. Alabama 7. Indiana 8. Virginia 9. Ohio 10. Florida 11. Mississippi 12. Louisiana 13. Utah 14. Arizona 15. Kentucky 16. Michigan 17. Missouri 18. Oklahoma 19. New York 20. Illinois 28

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Despite changes brought by the COVID-19 pandemic, the states across the South seem to have all their ducks in a row when it comes to attracting business.

It would be easy to look at current economic statistics and conclude that we may as well remove words such as “business growth” and “expansion” from our collective vocabularies for the time being. On a macro level, the economy is anything but healthy, thanks to the coronavirus. And yet there are plenty of individual businesses that continue to expand or relocate to desirable places.

The question of which states are the best for doing business is as valid a question as ever.

Our roster of location experts knows the answers, from years of

experience helping to guide site decisions and negotiate favorable deals. As we do each year, Area Development surveyed them about the specific location considerations that matter most in corporate decision-making, and which states stand out in each of those categories.

What we learned is that, even amid the earth-shattering change the current pandemic has wrought, there are important things that have not changed.

States across the South continue to have their ducks in a row when it comes to making themselves

By Steve Kaelble for free site information, visit us online at www.areadevelopment.com

8/27/20 1:04 PM

attractive to businesses. They remain well-prepared for creating positive business headlines — they’re doing so now and will continue to do so as the economy regains its liveliness.

Before saying “the envelopes, please…,” it’s worth mentioning that these kudos are valid observations but also generalities that need a caveat. It may be hard to go wrong with a site in one of these top states, but every business has unique and individual needs — so the absolute best choice for a particular project could well be in a place that’s not on these lists. It’s all in the details.

The big overall headline is, indeed, what has not changed.

The top three states for 2020 are the same as they were in 2019.

Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina — same states and same order. That’s the seventh consecutive win for Georgia.

Texas, North Carolina, and Alabama placed fourth, fifth and sixth this year — and that same trio placed sixth, fifth, and fourth, respectively, last year. And as one might guess, states that are at the top of the overall rankings will be found at or near the top in the assessments of the individual categories below.

Overall Cost of Doing Business This is a great place to start a conversation on best states for

doing business, because a place where the bottom line doesn’t add up simply isn’t going to work. Georgia is tops in this department, helping solidify its case as the overall winner for 2020.

Like a lot of winners, the state is not content to rest on past success, and its legislative leaders have continued to focus on how to make low costs even lower.

Last year’s runner up, Texas, is runner-up again this year in this category, continuing to benefit from a favorable tax environment and generous incentives. Tennessee was first last year and is third this year, a reflection of the hot competition to drive down business costs.

Of course, there’s a lot that goes into the overall cost of doing business, and the mix of factors that best serves one company will be different from what is appealing to another. That’s why some of the categories below get a bit more specific about factors that impact overall cost.

centive list continues to be generous, rewarding job creation, investments in economic impact zones, doing research, and operating corporate headquarters, among many others. Tennessee ranks third, and as always, this list tilts heavily toward the South.

Access to Capital and Project Funding There’s no more prominent financial center than New York, and no place that relies more on venture capital investment than

METHODOLOGY

OUR 2020 Top States for Doing Business rankings reflect the results of our recent survey asking leading consultants to industry to give us their top state picks in 13 categories that impact compa-

Business Incentive Programs

nies’ location and facility plans.

Georgia also ranks highest this year in business incentive programs, which can have a significant impact on the cost of doing business by reducing both startup and operational costs.

It earned its spot with a menu that includes tax credits for job creation, plus credits for R&D investments, using its ports, and expanding operations.

South Carolina is a perennial leader in incentives. Though it drops to second this year, its in-

ranked based on their number

The states in each category were of mentions in the particular category, and total mentions in all 13 categories were calculated to rank the top 20 states overall.

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Overall Cost of Doing Business California,1 so it’s no surprise that these two states perennially hit the top of this list. Massachusetts, also one of the hottest places for VC, is fourth, and third-place is owned by Texas, where generous incentives and special programs make project funding a relative cinch. Tied for fifth place in this category are Georgia and Illinois.

1 Georgia 2 Texas 3 Tennessee 4 South Carolina 5t Indiana 5t North Carolina 7t Alabama

Business Incentives Programs

7t Mississippi

1 Georgia

9 Utah

2 South Carolina

10 Virginia

3 Tennessee 4t Alabama 4t Mississippi 6 Texas 7 Virginia 8t Ohio 8t Louisiana 8t North Carolina

Competitive Labor Market Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas were leaders last year in labor, and they are again in this year’s list. Indiana lands the fifth-place spot for 2020. All happen to be right-to-work states,2 and they also have an appealing combination of educational opportunities and qualify-of-life attributes that together encourage a well-educated, eager workforce.

Tennessee, in fact, ranks fifth in population growth among the sought-after millennial workforce, according to a U.S.News report,3 and North Carolina is eighth.

Interestingly, Utah, which is tied for seventh in this category, is first for growth of its young workforce according to U.S.News.

As cities, some of the most attractive places for millennials are in these top states — Austin, Nashville, Raleigh, Dallas, Charlotte, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Houston, Memphis, and Salt Lake City.4

2020 Top States Commentary A PREMIUM ON SKILLS AND TRAINING One of the biggest challenges facing occupiers and economic development organizations is how to accelerate economic recovery. There is an urgency to create as many new job opportunities as possible, and economic development organizations play a critical role in that effort.

There is currently a premium on skills and training, and states that continue to invest in workforce development are becoming increasingly crucial amidst the era of COVID-19. It comes as no surprise that of the top 10 performing states in terms of overall votes, 9 were among the top states for having a competitive labor market, and 8 of those were also among the top states for their workforce training programs, including Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Another shift that was brought to light by the pandemic is a more continued focus on transparency and accountability between public and private partnerships. These partnerships have shifted from a “one-and-done” model to one of ongoing engagement as companies navigate a volatile environment.

As such, among the top 10 performing states in terms of overall votes, 8 were also among the top states for having a cooperative and responsive state government, including Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

By Chris Schastok, Senior Vice President; and Eric Stavriotis, Senior Vice President; Advisory & Transaction Services, CBRE

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11th Annual

Access to Capital & Funding

TOP STATES for Doing

1t New York

Business

1t California 3 Texas

2020

4 Massachusetts

Competitive Labor Market

5t Georgia 5t Illinois 7t North Carolina

Workforce Tr a i n i n g Programs

7t Florida 9 Ohio

The pandemic has created massive 10 Colorado upheaval in employment, and as the nation recovers, it’s likely that many workers will wind up in different places or even entirely different occupations. A key to recovery is the ability to get workers trained or retrained quickly and efficiently — something that has always been important, and now is more so than ever.

Georgia ranks first in this category, and its Quick Start program has years of experience creating customized job-training programs that are free to qualified companies.

Linked to the Technical College System of Georgia, the program is so highly regarded that a number of other states have used it as a model.

1 Georgia 2 North Carolina 3t Tennessee 3t Texas 5 Indiana 6 Alabama 7t South Carolina 7t Utah 9 Virginia 10 Ohio

2020 Top States Commentary PA R T N E R I N G , I N N O VAT I N G , A N D L I S T E N I N G !

In the past 10 years, and even in a pandemic, there is one thing that still has been constant — the Top States for Doing Business. The familiar names are always on top: Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Texas, Indiana, and Ohio. I equate these state economic development organizations to the best college football programs. The bluebloods of the ACC, SEC, Big 12, and Big Ten have been around because of great coaches that have built great programs. The leaders of these programs have built winners by instilling the right values and going out and recruiting the right talent that fits the system to continue the programs’ longstanding success.

That same recipe applies to economic development success. Strong state business climates have been built, business-friendly policies have been enacted, the right targeted industry sectors have been identified, and strong programs have been developed to attract and train talent.

If you look at the states that continue to rise to the top — they have not only focused their efforts on policies, talent, and companies — but they also continue to innovate. They partner with universities, utility providers, and existing companies to understand the changes in the business world to adopt policies and procedures for continued success. However, at the end of the day, their real differentiator for the states mentioned is that they also do one thing better than everyone else — they listen!

If Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Texas, Indiana, and Ohio continue to listen and innovate, I expect to see them on this list for a long time to come.

By Bradley Migdal, Senior Managing Director, Cushman & Wakefield

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MANY STATES STRUGGLE TO REDUCE THE BARRIERS TO DOING BUSINESS. WE JUST ELIMINATED THEM ALTOGETHER. Consistently ranked one of the best states for business, Florida is committed to keeping regulatory requirements and business taxes low. That, along with a strong economy and zero personal state income tax, makes it a great place to do business. We won’t stand in the way of your success.

We’ll pave the way for it. Discover what a future in Florida means for your business at floridathefutureishere.com/freedom, or call 877-YES-FLORIDA.

Miami, Florida

Workforce Training Programs 1 Georgia 2 Louisiana

Energy Availability & Costs 1t Georgia

3 Alabama

1t Tennessee

4t Virginia 4t South Carolina 6t Tennessee 6t North Carolina 8 Ohio

3 North Carolina 4 Texas 5 Washington 6t Alabama 6t South Carolina

9t Kentucky

8t Indiana

9t Indiana

8t Mississippi 8t Louisiana 8t Kentucky

Second in this category is Louisiana, which a dozen years ago launched its FastStart program that aims to ensure workers are ready from the first day on the job at a new or expanding facility. AIDT is a state agency that’s in the business of recruiting and training workers for new and expanding employers in the third-place state of Alabama.

Tied for fourth in this category are Virginia, with its Virginia Talent Accelerator Program offering companyspecific recruitment and training services, and South Carolina, home of the well-regarded readySC program with recruiting, assessment, training development, management, and implementation services.

Energy Availability and Costs Depending on the company, the cost and availability of energy can be a make-or-break aspect of a site

2020 Top States Commentary L O W E R B U S I N E S S C O S T S , D E C R E A S I N G R E G U L AT I O N S What will be remembered about the year 2020? Certainly, the COVID-19 pandemic has created dynamic shifts in how companies are doing business and thinking about the future. In addition, there is heightened awareness of the critical need to re-shore medical supplies and pharmaceuticals, and a focus on the creation of new businesses helping to combat the virus.

What should also be focused on is where in the U.S. does it make strategic business sense to locate to and expand within as time moves forward. Companies are keenly focused on reviewing business fundamentals that will allow them to weather the economic impact of the pandemic and chart a path forward, which makes this year’s ranking of the Top States for Doing Business particularly valuable.

Noteworthy in our team’s review of “the best” is that Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina remain on top for the second straight year. In fact, of the 12 Southeast States, nine rank in the overall top 20 states for doing business. Our project flow mirrors this indication given the region’s strengths in working hard to attract capital investment, particularly in advanced manufacturing, IT, and energy-related technologies.

Utah is the newcomer to the top 20 list, not surprisingly given its business-friendly policies, quality-of-life assets, and diverse economic base. Several Midwest States have increased their overall ranking to include Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Illinois (Ohio stayed steady at No. 9), all recognized for their strategic efforts in lowering the cost of doing business, particularly corporation income tax rates. As in prior years, Texas remains a top location to do business in all categories except workforce training initiatives.

Those states whose ranking increased most notably over last year include, Virginia, Indiana, Florida, Michigan, and Missouri, likely attributable to their aggressive economic development strategies and hyper focus on creating business-friendly, lower regulatory burdensome environments.

By Leslie Wagner, Senior Principal, Ginovus

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Logistics & Infrastructure 1 Georgia 2 Texas

11th Annual

TOP STATES for Doing

Business

3 Tennessee

2020

4 Indiana 5 Ohio 6t South Carolina 6t Virginia

choice and is certainly a key component of the 8t Illinois overall cost of doing business. Tied for the 10 Missouri top spot in this category are Georgia and Tennessee. An abundance of hydropower helps keep rates lower in Tennessee — it’s among the leading hydropower states east of the Rocky Mountains.

Washington, in the fifth spot in this category, is even bigger in hydropower, producing nearly a third of America’s supply of that particular renewable resource.

Meanwhile, third-place North Carolina is near the top in production of nuclear power. And fourth-place Texas is a major player in wind power.

8t Florida

Logistics and Infrastructure For companies making supplies and products that need to safely and confidently arrive at their destination, the quality of infrastructure and logistics capabilities are

of significant importance. In top-ranked Georgia, for example, the job is accomplished by a solid mix of highway infrastructure, deepwater port facilities, and the world’s busiest passenger airport in Atlanta.5 Texas weighs in with the lengthiest collection of freight rail6 and public roads of any state, and nearly a dozen deepwater ports, including the busy port of Houston.

The states ranked third and fourth in this category, Tennessee and Indiana,

Site-Readiness Programs 1 Tennessee 2 Georgia 3 North Carolina 4 South Carolina 5 Indiana 6 Alabama 7t Virginia 7t Ohio 7t Michigan 10 Texas

2020 Top States Commentary INVESTMENT IN WORKFORCE TRAINING AND SITE-READINESS

Workforce and labor market considerations are consistently among the most critical location factors for many projects. And every competitive site selection project has a real estate component to it, which makes the availability of a site or building that meets a client’s requirements always a critical factor in the decision process.

The top 10 states in terms of overall scores on the survey also scored among the top 10 in the categories specific to workforce and real estate…with just few exceptions. One takeaway from this observation is states that have recognized excellence for investing in their pipeline (i.e., workforce training and sitereadiness programs), not surprisingly, are also recognized as having an excellent end product (i.e., competitive labor market and available real estate).

By Jason M. Hamman, The Hamman Consulting Group, Inc.; and The Hamman Realty Group, Inc.

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“

OF COURSE, THE MIX claim the biggest and secondfor development and, even OF FACTORS THAT more important, ready to biggest FedEx airport hubs among their logistics and roll? That readiness can be a BEST SERVES ONE infrastructure assets. Memdeal-maker or a deal-breaker.

COMPANY WILL BE Tennessee responds with a phis is the nation’s numberDIFFERENT FROM one airport in terms of cargo handy, easily searchable dataWHAT IS APPEALING base listing dozens of certihandled.7 Indiana took the top fied sites, along with ongoing slot in a recent CNBC rankTO ANOTHER. efforts to prepare additional ing of infrastructure,8 aided by sites for project-readiness, highway and rail assets, ports, and was ranked first in this and a central location. Ranked category. fifth in this category, Ohio, has Georgia, in the number-two similar location and infrastrucspot, counters with its GRAD ture advantages as its neighbor Certified Sites program. Short and was also near the top of for Georgia Ready for Accelerated Development, the the CNBC review, as were Tennessee and Georgia . program has more than five dozen industrial certified Site-Readiness Programs sites that have all the due diligence already completed and are prepared for fast-track construction. Similar programs in many states offer pre-vetted sites, and our Your organization may come across a nice piece of survey respondents were particularly impressed with the open land in just the right location. But is it available

“

POWER TO SUCCEED

Thanks to Santee Cooper resources like lowcost, reliable power, creative incentive packages and a wide-ranging property portfolio, South Carolina shatters the standard for business growth.

In fact, since 1988, Santee Cooper has helped generate more than $15 billion in investment and helped bring nearly 80,000 new jobs to our state.

It’s how we’re driving Brighter Tomorrows, Today.

www.poweringSC.com

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Available Real Estate 1 Georgia 2 Texas 3 Tennessee 4 North Carolina 5t Alabama 5t Indiana 5t Ohio 8 South Carolina 9t Florida 9t Mississippi

Cooperative & Responsive State Government 1 Georgia

Corporate Tax Structure

2 South Carolina

1 Florida

3 Tennessee

2 Texas

4 North Carolina

3 Tennessee

5 Indiana

4 Georgia

6t Alabama

5 Nevada

6t Virginia

6 South Dakota

8 Mississippi

7 North Carolina

9t Texas

8 South Carolina

9t Arizona

9t Indiana 9t Ohio

2020 Top States Commentary SIGNIFICANT PORT ACCESS There are only two “West Coast� states in the Top States for Doing Business: Utah at No. 13 and California at No. 22.

Utah was able to do this by being tied for No. 7 for its competitive labor market, ranking No. 9 for its overall cost of doing business, and tied for No. 10 in speed of permitting. California was tied for No.1 in access to capital funding, although it was not in the top 10 in any other category. California has three of the largest ports in the country and significant advanced technology manufacturing and services. It seems that because the economic base is so strong, the incentives are not so prevalent.

So at least from this perspective, California suffers in terms of cost of doing business, business incentives, etc.

Three of the mainstays in the top five for most categories in which the states were ranked claim significant ports: Georgia (Savannah), Texas (Houston), Tennessee (Memphis), South Carolina (Charleston), and North Carolina (Wilmington). Access to fast-growing world trade is clearly helpful, but public-sector support is needed to capitalize on that.

Additionally, the small states in the upper northeastern region of the U.S. scored extremely poor in nearly every category (as did Alaska). I believe this is at least moderately correlated with smaller economic bases and smaller populations relative to the rest of the nation. However, there is European demand for forest products that could help those state economies grow.

By Walter Kemmsies, Ph.D., Managing Director, Economist and Chief Strategist, U.S. Ports, Airports and Global Infrastructure Group, JLL

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Since 1971

F YE A RS O

1971-2021

WWW.AIDT.EDU

11th Annual

Favorable Regulatory Environment

TOP STATES for Doing

1 Georgia

Business

2t Tennessee 2t South Carolina

2020

4 Texas

Speed of Project Permitting

5 Alabama

1

Georgia

6 Indiana

2

Alabama

7 North Carolina 8 Mississippi 9t Virginia

offerings in the Carolinas and Indiana.

Available Real Estate

9t Louisiana

Site readiness is important for eager, expanding businesses.

But initially, there needs to be ideal and available real estate.

The consultants who responded found Georgia to have an especially attractive inventory of available real estate. They also spotlighted good prospects in Texas, Tennessee, and North Carolina. Tied for fifth place in this category are Alabama, Indiana, and Ohio.

Cooperative and Responsive State Government We wind up this detailed exploration of Top States for Doing Business with a look at four interrelated categories that essentially have to do with the welcome

3 South Carolina mat states have put 4 Tennessee out. Just how will prospects feel about 5 Mississippi the cooperative 6 Louisiana nature of government leaders and 7t Texas programs, regula7t Indiana tors, and tax collec9 North Carolina tors? The answer starts with a hand10t Virginia shake — or maybe 10t Utah an elbow-bump in a post-pandemic world 10t Arizona — but that has to be 10t Missouri backed up by actions that include assistance with location selection, local introductions and approvals, and the crafting of programs for incentives and training.

The responding consultants generally have found the most cooperative and responsive state governments in the Southern States, led by Georgia, South Carolina,

2020 Top States Commentary B E S T- I N - C L A S S R E S P O N S I V E N E S S It is fitting the top eight states also rank in the top ten for having cooperative and responsive state government. Effective public-sector engagement is critical to consultants and business leaders alike.

When evaluating investment and job-creation decisions, companies place considerable value on speed, accuracy, efficiency, and comprehensiveness from state (and local/regional) economic development representatives.

Unsurprisingly, states in the bottom quartile received no votes in this category. While all categories in the survey are important, if a state, region or community wants to improve its reputation for economic development, I recommend a focus on providing best-in-class collaboration and responsiveness.

As someone who has been on both sides of the table, I can promise it goes a long, long way.

By Jacob Everett, CEcD, Consultant, McGuire Sponsel

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HOW WILL PROSPECTS FEEL ABOUT THE COOPERATIVE NATURE OF GOVERNMENT LEADERS/PROGRAMS, REGULATORS, AND TAX COLLECTORS?

“

Tennessee, and North Carolina.

They are attracted by what people in Indiana call Hoosier Hospitality, which is reflected in the state government. But then the list heads southward again, visiting Alabama, Virginia, Mississippi, and Texas before landing out West to Arizona.

Corporate Ta x S t r u c t u r e Florida tops the list in this category by saying “no” to a lot of pesky taxes. For certain kinds of corporate structures, there’s no corporate income tax at all.

There’s no state-level property tax, no property tax on business inventories, and no corporate franchise tax on

capital stock. “No” on a lot of other taxes too — and also no state personal income tax.

Texas, in the second spot, also says “no” to some significant taxes, including corporate and personal income tax. The respondents also find the corporate tax structure advantageous in Tennessee, Georgia, and Nevada, to round out the top five.

Favorable Regulatory Environment There’s also the issue of “red tape,” or the absence thereof. Regulatory hassles can make a great location

2020 Top States Commentary LONG-TERM ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICIES: C O N S TA N T S I N A C H A N G I N G W O R L D Unprecedented…pivot…disruptive…These words, and more, have been used to describe the events of the past six months and the convulsions that have literally shaken the political and economic world as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But in reviewing this year’s rankings, there’s a remarkable amount of consistency with previous years.

In fact, with few exceptions, the states that are in the top 10 are mostly the same ones that have been there (though there have been a few small changes in the order) for the past four years.

Why is that still the case even in a time of great upheaval? It’s because economic development is a long game. Sure, changes in tax and regulatory policy can impact specific projects and deals, but it is consistency and predictability that companies making expansion and relocation decisions are seeking.

Companies don’t add jobs and make investment because they are charities. In fact, Wall Street often rewards companies for cutting jobs. Instead, companies want to be in communities that will be their long-term partners. And that partnership is best demonstrated through a long-term commitment to policies that help businesses grow — fair taxes, balanced regulatory approaches, stable politics. Those policies don’t happen overnight but are the result of years, if not decades, of commitment to these principles by both political parties, at the state and local level, and result from important investments in education, research, and infrastructure.

Companies go where they are wanted and where talent is concentrated. While the changes wrought by the pandemic could bring about some changes in those dynamics as reshoring unfolds and companies look for safer locations outside of coastal metropolises, many of the states featured in this year’s findings will continue to be well positioned for many years to come.

By Christopher Lloyd, Senior Vice President and Director, Infrastructure and Economic Development, McGuireWoods Consulting

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11th Annual

TOP STATES for Doing

decision turn sour, and site consultants will tell you the Southern States are where you’re least likely to encounter that bad taste.

Indeed, the top 10 states for favorable regulatory environment are all in the southern part of the country, with the lone exception of Indiana, in the sixth spot. In all of these states, an economic development prospect can expect an easierthan-average experience dealing with environmental regulations, zoning matters, workplace safety authorities, and other potential roadblocks.

the benefits of business expansion get stuck in the mud.

Again, states in the South have a leg up in this vital out-of-the-gate aspect of development. Georgia leads 2020 the pack, followed by Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi.

That said, the top 10 list suggests that a commitment to speedy permitting can be found outside the usual spots in the South — Indiana, Utah, Arizona, and Missouri also earn recognition from the consultants responding to our survey.

Business

Speed of Permitting

1

https://www.statista.com/statistics/424167/venture-capital-investments-usa-by-state/ https://www.nrtw.org/right-to-work-states/ https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/slideshows/young-people-are-movingto-these-10-states 4 https://www.businessinsider.com/cities-millennials-moving-good-jobs-salaries-2019-2 5 https://www.businessinsider.com/atlanta-airport-facts-busiest-in-world-2019-5#there-aresix-starbucks-in-the-airport-8 6 https://www.aar.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/AAR-State-Rankings-2017.pdf 7 https://nowthatslogistics.com/the-top-10-freight-airports-in-the-us/ 8 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/5-states-with-the-best-infrastructure-in-americain-2019.html 2 3

Of course, regulatory matters are a fact of life throughout the lifespan of a business operation, but they make their first appearance before a shovel hits the dirt. If the permitting process moves at a snail’s pace,

2020 Top States Commentary W O R K F O R C E T R A I N I N G , U T I L I T Y PA R T N E R S , A N D I N C E N T I V E P R O G R A M S The survey results yield few surprises for us at Site Selection Group, and we view the top five states as largely interchangeable. As expected, the Southeastern States ranked very highly — most of them finishing in the top 12.

Prior to the pandemic, labor markets were extremely tight across the nation, so states such as Ohio, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Texas — with a diverse set of large and mid-size metro areas — scored well. For some time, we have seen projects skewing to the periphery of these larger markets to mid-size communities.

States with responsive workforce training programs also tend to distinguish themselves from the competition. Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina (the top three states in the survey) have workforce training programs that are particularly noteworthy. SSG also gives high marks to the state of Louisiana in this regard.

Four of the top five states have strong utility partners, which we have long seen as a key ingredient to economic development success. Partners such as Duke Energy, the Southern Company, TVA, and a coalition of utilities across the state of South Carolina have greatly aided project management and site selection for SSG clients.

We note North Carolina’s emergence in the top five. We have seen this state do much in recent years to improve its competitive posture by actions such as a complete overhaul of its financial incentive programs. And Texas and Florida have again ranked well in the survey due to their pro-business tax structure, superior infrastructure, and strong local programs in economic development.

By Bob Cook, Senior Vice President, Site Selection Group

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ALABAMA

Alabama Department of Commerce The Alabama Department of Commerce is the state’s lead economic development agency. In addition to business development activities, Commerce promotes exporting and international opportunities for Alabama companies, assists small businesses, and positions the state for film productions. Commerce is home to the state’s primary workforce development program, AIDT. Greg Canfield, Secretary Alabama Department of Commerce 401 Adams Ave. P.O. Box 304106 Montgomery, AL 36130-4106 greg.canfield@commerce.alabama.gov www.madeinalabama.com AIDT The mission of AIDT is to provide quality workforce development for Alabama’s new and expanding businesses, and to expand the opportunities of its citizens through the jobs these businesses create.

Ed Castile, Executive Director AIDT One Technology Court Montgomery, AL 36116 334-280-4400 ecastile@aidt.edu www.aidt.edu

FLORIDA

Enterprise Florida From a talented workforce to a strategic geographic location, Florida has the boundless resources businesses need to grow. Freedom from high taxes and prohibitive regulations make Florida the Tax Foundation’s #1 tax climate in the Southeast and a top state for business.

Learn how Florida can help your business thrive.

Tim Vanderhoof Senior Vice President, Business Development Enterprise Florida, Inc. 800 N. Magnolia Ave., Suite 1100 Orlando, FL 32803 407-956-5600 tvanderhoof@EnterpriseFlorida.com www.floridathefutureishere.com

GEORGIA

Georgia Department of Economic DevelopmentGeorgia consistently earns top rankings for our attractive business climate, Quick Start workforce training program, and global access through the Port of Savannah and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport. But it’s our partnership approach to business that really empowers growth and success. Come make Georgia home and let’s thrive together.

Georgia Ports Authority Georgia’s ports provide greater scheduling flexibility and market reach with direct links to I-95 and I-16, onterminal rail, and 37 weekly container ship calls. The Savannah market features a deep inventory of industrial sites and parks, while the state of Georgia offers a business-friendly tax structure and targeted workforce training.

Stacy Watson, Director of Economic & Industrial Development Georgia Ports Authority P.O. Box 2406 Savanah, GA 31402 912-964-3879 Fax: 912-964-3869 swatson@gaports.com www.gaports.com

KENTUCKY

Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development From single-employee startups to century-old brands, Team Kentucky helps businesses select, grow, and succeed. Offering low business costs, a central U.S. location, and expertise in a range of industries, Kentucky can support any company’s needs. With experts in Europe, Asia, and throughout the Bluegrass, Team Kentucky responds quickly, builds long-term relationships, assists with workforce training, and assures companies get the resources they need for success.

Jeff Taylor, Commissioner, Business Development Kentucky Cabinet for Economic Development Old Capitol Annex 300 W. Broadway Frankfort, KY 40601 502-564-7670 or 1-800-626-2930 Jeff.Taylor@ky.gov https://ced.ky.gov

MISSISSIPPI

Mississippi Development Authority The Mississippi Development Authority is the state’s lead economic and community development agency, with approximately 300 employees providing services to businesses and communities throughout the state. MDA works to recruit new business to Mississippi and retain and expand existing industry and business. The agency also promotes tourism throughout the state.

John Rounsaville, Interim Director Mississippi Development Authority 501 N. West Street Jackson, MS, 39201 601-359-3449 or 1-800-360-3323 jrounsaville@mississippi.org www.mississippi.org

Georgia Department of Economic Development 75 Fifth St. NW, Suite 1200 Atlanta, Georgia 30308 404-962-4000 Georgia.org

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SOUTH CAROLINA

Allen Borden, Deputy Commissioner, Business, Community and Rural Development Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development Tennessee Tower, 27th Floor 312 Rosa L. Parks Ave. Nashville, TN 37243 615-741-1888 allen.borden@tn.gov https://TNECD.com

Santee Cooper Santee Cooper supports South Carolina’s business community by providing low-cost, safe, reliable power that improves your bottom line and the quality of life for South Carolinians. In addition to residential and commercial customers, Santee Cooper powers 27 large industrial customers, Charleston Air Force Base, and municipalities and electric cooperatives across the state.

Bill McCall, Program Coordinator, Economic Development Santee Cooper One Riverwood Drive Moncks Corner, SC 29461 843-761-8000 ext. 5381 wmccall@santeecooper.com www.PoweringSC.com

VIRGINIA

Virginia Economic Development Partnership For decades, Virginia has been a top choice for business.

Consistently rated among the best states for business, Virginia’s leaders have long made policy choices that demonstrate strong bipartisan support for business. In fact, Virginia is currently ranked as America's Top State for Business by CNBC

TENNESSEE

Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development It’s no accident that some of the biggest and most respected brands in the world have chosen to call Tennessee home. We provide companies a central location with unparalleled infrastructure, a highly qualified workforce backed by game-changing education reform, a low tax burden, and a collaborative environment with a business-friendly administration.

Virginia Economic Development Partnership 901 East Cary Street Richmond, VA 23219 804-545-5600 info@vedp.org www.vedp.org

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WORKFORCE

New Strategies for Learning and Development in an Increasingly Virtual World For companies that want to stay ahead of the pack, now is the time to rethink how they train and empower their employees.

By Bernice Boucher, Managing Director, Strategic Consulting, JLL

“next normal,”3 speed, agility, and a commitment to lifelong learning will separate those organizations that merely survive the pandemic from the ones that grow and thrive.

Training and development must keep pace with innovation that’s happening throughout the rest of the organization, while adhering to the principles of learning, to help employees meet emerging demands.

Rethink Training for the Short- and Long-Term

N

ewly dispersed work teams are facing new challenges. During the early months of the global pandemic, more than three-quarters of organizations reported 80 percent or more of their employees were working from home, according to a global survey on workplace re-entry.1 While workplace mobility isn’t new,2 the scale of remote work has accelerated digital transformation, with rollout timelines shrinking from years to weeks.

Workflows have also been upended as employees try to adopt new tools as part of their daily routines.

These trends compound and create a renewed focus on training and development to give employees the skills and knowledge they need to flourish throughout and beyond the pandemic. As we are already starting to see from companies in areas of the world stepping into the

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Training and development that focuses only on shortterm needs and not long-term goals will put organizations at a severe disadvantage. These programs must focus on the skills employees can learn today that will help them operate in an increasingly digital, dispersed environment. What technology systems might create further efficiencies?

Fast-tracking solutions to common digital bottlenecks and implementing robust training now will solve the problem and ensure employees don’t revert to the “old ways” for lack of a better alternative.

Even where there aren’t new approaches to consider, training documents and programs likely need to be updated. Real-world examples that made sense a few months ago suddenly feel out of touch when work is primarily digital. Look at how workflows have evolved and adapt trainings to address the way employees work today, which is likely to last into the future.

Combine the Best of Tech and Socialization to Power Remote Learning With new and updated trainings in place, it’s time to evolve how learning happens. Companies are becoming more aware of the need to incorporate diversity and inclusion into every aspect of their business, and training is no different. While learning styles are largely unchanged, there is a greater emphasis on cultural and neurological differences of participants, which require for free site information, visit us online at www.areadevelopment.com

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new approaches be considered and explored.

Live, virtual trainings appeal to visual and auditory learners, with the added benefit of bringing individuals together in a shared organizational purpose. To navigate the stilted nature of online discussion and address users from every skill level, solicit audience feedback through online features like polling, chat boxes, and leader boards or separate feedback apps like Slido.

Next-level robotics technologies can help replicate the classroom environment. Some solutions, already on the market,4 enable users to remotely control their robotic “heads” — aka a tablet — to swivel around for different perspectives. These capabilities can support multiple virtual learning scenarios, from training users on intricate equipment updates to enabling colleagues to connect with each other more fully through rotational staffing and social distancing requirements.

There are even new tools to help determine if your trainees are still following along when the trainer and trainees are virtually connected. “Attention indicators” embedded in many conferencing platforms send an alert to the presenter when individuals have opened new windows or been away from the conference for too long. It’s a useful reminder for presenters to solicit feedback and participation in the moment, keeping people engaged in the subject at hand.

Lifelong Learning Doesn’t Stop in the Virtual Classroom More than ever, training and learning needs to be an “always on” function for organizations. If a new person joins tomorrow, how will you share with them the information you presented weeks before?

Many companies are investing in rich training programs the lay out a clear curriculum on diverse topics from leadership training to data management. These

programs (offered through platforms like LinkedIn Learning, Coursera, Udemy and more) not only save organizations from having to create this content themselves, they are available 24/7. Employees can simply sign on, select their program, and start learning new skills on their own timeframe. They are also an excellent tool for self-motivated learners who may not want to wait for the next virtual classroom experience.

Another approach is to create digital content “trails,” guiding employees through different training programs in reward-driven ways. As the user reads more and does more online activities, they can earn merits and badges, and compete against their cohorts. This gamification not only helps keep employees motivated to stay focused on the training, it helps them retain information by immediately using it in real-world scenarios.

Ultimately, one of the most powerful learning methods is to have trainees teach someone else. Informal knowledge-sharing programs and communications platforms like the ones above can work together to help expand learning and “train the trainer.”

Accelerating Change Is Here to Stay The enduring lesson of the pandemic is that innovation isn’t stopping; it’s only getting faster. Continuous learning, training, and development will become more critical in the months and years ahead.

Now is the time to bring transformative thinking to the ways we train and empower teams, both those who are remote and those stationed in the office. It may be the difference between leading the market and struggling to catch up. n 1

https://www.us.jll.com/content/dam/jll-com/documents/pdf/personalized-benchmarking/ jll-global-2020-op-benchmarking-report-design-COVID19-workplace-reentry.pdf https://www.us.jll.com/content/dam/jll-com/documents/pdf/personalized-benchmarking/ jll-global-2020-op-benchmarking-report-design-mobility-programs.pdf 3 https://hbr.org/2020/06/lessons-from-chinese-companies-response-to-covid-19 4 https://www.zdnet.com/article/best-telepresence-robots/ 2

Changing Markets Continued from page 17 such as life sciences. When evaluating and benchmarking markets, decision-makers need to understand these trends within the locations being considered.

Furthermore, as budget challenges heighten due to the economic crisis, government incentives may be on the chopping block across the country. While we don’t believe there will be major reductions in program support, we do anticipate further focus on taxpayer returnon-investment and transparency, post-performance programs, and statutory wage and job creation thresholds.

With that said, we are also witnessing multiple rounds of emergency relief and economic stimulus packages totaling over $10 trillion globally. Initially supporting

struggling healthcare sectors and supporting vulnerable citizens, these programs are now shifting to directly aid industries as they try to recover.

Looking toward the future, the global economy is filled with uncertainty. As supply chains shift and industries pivot, key markets are changing for business leaders. Many may see this as a monumental challenge for companies. However, with effective evaluation and benchmarking, businesses can find opportunities for growth, while alleviating their concentration risk. n 1

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/unemployment-rate-rises-to-record-high-14-point7-percent-in-april-2020.htm?view_full https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/upshot/who-left-new-york-coronavirus.html 3 https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/supply-chains-latest-the-cost-of-air-freightis-soaring 2

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location canada Opportunities for Growth in the New Normal

Navigating Canada’s Complex Incentives Landscape

From NAFTA to the USMCA — A Canadian Perspective

COVID-19 has shaken up global competitiveness, potentially offering Canada unique opportunities to recover and thrive.

Canadian business incentives can build resiliency and longterm growth.

Although it is still too early to say how investors to Canada will react to the USMCA, it does provide medium-term certainty to North American trade. n July 1, 2020, the UnitedStates-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) came into force as a replacement for the longstanding North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the same three countries. The new treaty is the result of over two years of negotiations between the three trading partners.

NAFTA was not the first agreement liberalizing trade between Canada and United States. The two countries have been parties to a free trade agreement predating NAFTA since 1988. Many of the conditions of the preceding agreement were included in NAFTA.

COVID-19 has

had staggering impacts across the global economy — affecting industries, labor markets, education systems, and social and behavioral norms. We have all had front row seats over the last several months, witnessing the pandemic’s disregard for borders and its ramifications that have spared no one.

Slowdowns in global trade, supply chains, and our ability to attract global investment and talent from other jurisdictions have left decision-makers and business leaders to pick up the pieces.

G

overnment incentives have been vital in driving the Canadian economic engine and a key factor in putting us on the map as one of the strongest investment destinations in the world. The benefit to Canadianbased businesses has been immense, but the incentives ecosystem also provides an excellent opportunity for companies considering relocating or expanding operations into Canada.

Despite the ongoing global pandemic, Canada is already starting to transition back into a growth phase — aided, in part, by billions in federal and provincial government incentives — to assist and stimulate recovery.

O

Continued on page 50

Continued on page 53

Continued on page 57

By Anita Shinde, Partner, Economic Advisory, Deloitte Canada

By Navid Hemmati, Senior Manager, Business Tax Incentives, EY Canada

By Marc Beauchamp, President & CEO, The CAI Global Group

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Opportunities for Growth in the New Normal Continued from page 48

”

Canada’s industrial sector, and as a result industrial real estate, is being heavily impacted by the COVID-19 disruption to international supply chains.

Long before the coronavirus spread across the globe, Deloitte’s 2019 Canada’s Competitiveness Scorecard1 highlighted eight key dimensions of global competitiveness in our country, as it related to our ability to compete for investment and talent with our global peers. Competitiveness is a key dimension of economic prosperity. It can measure how productive and innovative an economy is, and it is key to creating sustainable economic growth.

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To develop the scorecard, Deloitte examined both areas of strength, such as talent, as well as productivity and innovation — dimensions where Canada has faltered in recent years relative to other countries. It is through this general lens that there are a number of new dynamics and observations that can be made in light of COVID-19.

Will Canada’s new normal support future Canadian competitiveness in the long-term?

Canada has lagged behind a number of its peers in its productivity and innovation performance in recent years, according to traditional measures. This has posed a challenge to our competitiveness and overall prosperity, but does COVID-19 represent a turning point? Along with healthcare, education, and transportation to name a few, commercial real estate is one of many industries which is being pushed to adapt. And that has introduced numerous pressures and incentives to innovate the ways properties and spaces are built, designed, occupied, maintained, and serviced.

Over the past few months, much of Canada’s business ecosystem has had to transition rapidly from the physical to the virtual world, with large segments of the workforce required to work from home. People and businesses have experienced varying ranges of challenges — from minor to profound — to adapt to this new normal, balancing families, blending home and office, while navigating economic closures, a harsh economic downturn, and physical distancing. These combined shifts have, of course, posed significant challenges to the commercial real estate industry.

As with other parts of the economy, the Canadian commercial real estate sector is now assessing impacts, adjusting operations, and executing contingency plans to support its response and recovery. The severity of COVID-19 on the Canadian commercial real estate market still remains largely unknown, with limited market forecasting taking place, given so much uncertainty.

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Canada’s Talent Advantage Builds Investor Confidence

It is clear that the utilization of office space will likely be permanently changed by the pandemic. Enduring remote work adoption beyond the end of states of emergencies and lockdowns, continued advanced technology adoption to support productivity virtually, and potential shifts in tenant preferences for office workspaces will all drive the future of office properties.

Examples of new elements will include greater sensing technology adoption to measure and analyze workplace occupancy and air quality and inform sanitation practices, apps to manage employee movement throughout offices, and increased use of cloud-hosted building operations capabilities, including modern analytics to support remote facility monitoring and management.

Some businesses have seen high levels of productivity and job satisfaction from their remote workforce, while others are feeling the absence of social interactions, in-person efficiencies, and easy to access collaboration.

But it may not have to be a case of either/or, as new opportunities for innovation may arise as physical distancing, remote work, and safeguarding of our workplaces continue.

Commercial property developers, owners, managers, and service providers will need to adapt on a number of fronts to recover and thrive, and have likely started planning and strategizing accordingly, to an extent.

This may consist of how work and common spaces are redesigned to maintain social and collaborative opportunities, while including ample space for safety measures, new methods of maintaining and monitoring effective sanitation, and employing greater use of advanced technologies to support changes to space design and usage.

Some retail properties have faced severe limitations given COVID-19 restrictions on accessing high-traffic indoor areas and places. Many shopping centers have seen a large reduction in customers, temporary store closures, and reduced operating hours. Consumers are expected to remain cautious of congested retail environments, and the long-term effects from COVID-19 will likely have retailers reducing store congestion, expanding spaces, and retrofitting HVAC, all of which may involve new innovative solutions when it comes to

Before this pandemic, it was already clear that talent was emerging as the new global currency. In my travels and meetings with global investors, I consistently heard that talent was a top-of-mind factor in their business decisions. Then, I could speak with confidence that Canada would meet their needs.

Now, as COVID-19 introduces new considerations, Canada’s talent holds even greater appeal for global investors. Why? To start, Canada has the highest educated workforce in the OECD. And then there are the growing numbers of international students who choose to not only study in Canada but stay and build careers here after graduating. Of Canada’s record 642,000 international students in 2019, 60 percent plan to apply for permanent residence.

Plus, there’s another Canadian talent advantage that has been garnering widespread international attention and favor: Canada’s open and inclusive society that makes its unparalleled visa program for skilled workers so attractive to global companies.

Canada’s tremendously successful Global Skills Strategy meets the needs of companies looking for specialized talent by allowing employers to bring these global skills into Canada quickly. How fast? Within two weeks. That’s a remarkable talent advantage for global investors. As the COVID-19 pandemic makes many countries tighten visa restrictions and complicates global movements, easy and predictable access to proven talent has become essential for investors.

Beyond talent, Invest in Canada brings together our federal, provincial, and city partners to provide tailored, confidential, and coordinated support for your expansion project. We work with you every step of the way, bolstering your team’s efforts and ensuring that no question goes unanswered, that no stone is left unturned. Our services include developing a business case with unique offerings, data, and insights; identifying partners with links to education, government, and business; designing custom site visits; and supporting your business opening in Canada.

By connecting you with the right people in the right places across the country, we make it easy for you to invest in Canada.

Ian McKay Chief Executive Officer Invest in Canada

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space design, services, and tenancy choices. Research conducted by Deloitte in July of 2020 on the Future of the Mall 2 found that a number of key trends could reimagine shopping centers in novel ways, to become multi-purpose destinations offering a range of leisure activities, the repositioning of food and dining as the anchor, and further capitalize on digital tools to maximize productivity and efficiency.

Canada’s industrial sector, and as a result industrial real estate, is also being heavily impacted by the COVID-19 disruption to international supply chains.

Tenants may be required to restructure in order to allow for more liquidity and seek larger spaces to accommodate surplus inventory. Increases to online retail activity may also influence the demand for warehouses. Such a demand crunch would challenge the historically low industrial vacancy rates in Canada’s major markets. Thus, there may be incentives to reconfigure other available commercial property space, the exploration of smaller markets, and possible pressures to employ greater advanced technologies to further support productivity within the industrial sector.

While commercial real estate may not have been viewed as an industry ripe for innovative change, COVID-19 has triggered the industry to adapt in order to recover, which could play a key role towards recovery and bolster Canada’s competitiveness globally.

Canadian talent is a critical contributor to competitiveness, though the pandemic has challenged a number of key segments of its labor force.

Talent is the backbone of economic competitiveness in Canada. We have a world-class, highly skilled and educated labor force that can be viewed as a key competitive advantage, on a global scale. Further, Canada has untapped talent and skills, particularly when considering women, youth, new Canadians, racialized groups, and Indigenous people, notwithstanding relatively high labor force participation by some of these groups. These populations can face barriers to full employment, and this has only been heightened as

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a result of COVID-19, where marginalized communities have been disproportionately impacted.

On a number of fronts, Canada is supporting the continued employment of these groups, emphasizing a focus on supporting all of our country’s talent. For example, despite an economic downturn, Canada is remaining supportive of immigration, as it continues to be a critical contributor to our workforce. Newcomers are responsible for substantial Canadian labor force growth in recent years, and tend to be highly educated, often holding advanced skills that are in short supply here.

As COVID-19 has significantly challenged startups and small businesses, it is expected some of these businesses will not survive the downturn. Economists also believe that entrepreneurship and start-up activity will be particularly critical to drive economic recovery and support job creation. These challenges can potentially be addressed through the often entrepreneurial nature of Canadian newcomers.

There has been a steep decline in the number of permanent resident visas issued during the pandemic, reflecting the health risks and resulting economic lockdown and travel restrictions. However, Canada continues to process new applications for permanent and temporary residence, as well as for Express Entry draws. The Provincial Nominee Program also remains in operation, with a number of provinces inviting new immigration candidates even with travel restrictions imposed. Credit goes to the Canadian government for keeping this skilled labor pipeline open and welcoming immigrants that have the talents that align to Canada’s labor force needs, in spite of the current economic downturn.

Canada’s future path to recovery and competitiveness holds many unknowns, but it can be meaningfully shaped by our ability to seize key opportunities to adapt, enhance productivity, innovate across industries, and harness the full breadth of the talent and skills of all Canadians.

1

https://www2.deloitte.com/ca/en/pages/finance/articles/canada-competitivenessscorecard.html https://www2.deloitte.com/ca/en/pages/consumer-industrial-products/articles/future-ofthe-mall.html?nc=1

2

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Navigating Canada’s Complex Incentives Landscape Continued from page 48

”

Incentives can be the difference between an organization adopting or rejecting a capital investment or technology development project.

With tremendous uncertainty clouding geopolitics and the economy, incentives can be the difference between an organization adopting or rejecting a capital investment or technology development project in Canada. But the emergency government supports — in addition to an already robust, generous, and integrated incentive ecosystem — make Canada an attractive place

for businesses to develop technologies, attract top talent, and make capital investments. Here are some areas where Canada thrives and what is available for those companies looking to explore options.

Technology Development and Innovation Canada has emerged as a favorable location for technology development due to its highly diverse and educated workforce, a vast and growing international free trade network, and one of the most generous research and development (R&D) tax incentive programs in the world. In 2019, the federal government spent approximately $6.5 billion in R&D funding, while nonprofit and provincial government sectors contributed an additional $3.75 billion. The largest single funding program for R&D in Canada is the Scientific Research & Experimental Development (SR&ED) Tax Incentive Program. The Canadian Revenue Agency indicated that the program alone provided approximately $3 billion in federal credits last year.

The SR&ED program is available to companies across the country at all stages of growth. It provides a 35 percent refundable (cash) tax credit in most instances, for small to mid-sized businesses with less than $10 million in taxable capital. Large and/or foreign corporations also benefit from the program through a 15 percent nonrefundable tax credit. The additional provincial tax credits range from 10 percent to 30 percent, bringing the total credit on eligible R&D expenses to 25–65 percent, depending on the province where the expenses were incurred, taxable capital, and corporate structure of the claimant. Regardless of where your company falls in that range, SR&ED is a very generous incentive program.

In addition to SR&ED tax credits, there are numerous federal and provincial discretionary grants available for R&D. In recent years, the federal government has made efforts toward streamlining its programs through sector-specific strategies with economic growth targets leading into 2025 — agri-food, resources of the future,

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Table 1 Domestic/FDI Ranking: Incentives as a % of Capital Investment (2014–2019)

9

Domestic

FDI

15.8 Domestic

Source: IncentivesFlow from WAVTEQ 2020

FDI

• • • National Research Council’s Industrial

”

There are a number of job-creation and training grants available, particularly for companies looking for highly skilled technical people or students.

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health and biosciences, clean technology, digital industries, and advanced manufacturing are all included. Instead of numerous small and rigid programs, the intention is to have an integrated and coordinated approach to its funding ecosystem, along with increased coordination with provinces. Most of these programs have size limitations of 500 or fewer employees, but there are also opportunities for large corporations. A few programs worth noting are: Research Assistance Program (NRC-IRAP):

For small to medium-size companies (1–500 employees), NRC-IRAP can be a significant source of grant funding for technology innovation projects. As of 2018–2019, NRC-IRAP has an expanded mandate with the ability to fund up to $10 million per R&D project, with a total budget of $700 million over five years. Eligible expenditures include salaries and subcontractors.

• ••

ustainable Development Technology Canada S (SDTC): This incentive is available to Canadian small to midsized businesses advancing innovative technologies that are pre-commercial and have the potential to demonstrate significant and quantifiable environmental and economic benefits. Since 2001, SDTC has funded $1.15 billion, and the 2017 federal budget announced an additional $400 million over five years. Although the applicant must be a Canadian company, the grant can be applied to projects with only 50 percent of expenses being incurred in Canada. Eligible expenses are quite broad in this program and, unlike many of the other R&D incentives, can include some capital investments.

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Table 2 Incentive Program Ranking — Total Incentives (2014–2019)

• ••

Strategic Innovation Fund (SIF): In conjunction with the NRC-IRAP’s expanded mandate to fund projects up to $10 million, SIF was established for larger innovation projects through a consolidation of various existing innovation programs.

Interestingly, a SIF contribution can be repayable, non-repayable, or a combination, with the repayment conditions determined on a case-by-case basis. Discretionary contributions of over $10 million per project are provided under two main categories: Business Innovation and Growth helps support R&D and commercialization, the growth and expansion of firms, and the attraction and retention of large-scale investments in Canada. Applicants must be a Canadian for-profit corporation conducting the proposed project in Canada. The minimum project size is $20 million with a SIF contribution of $10 million. The applicant must also be willing to make long-term commitments to Canada through job creation, R&D, and investments.

Collaborations and Networks helps support industrial research, development, and technology demonstration through collaboration between academia, nonprofit organizations, and the private sector.

Incentive Program Incentives Average Deals

(USD) Incentive Sample (USD) Canada Strategic Innovation Fund

$1.66b $36.04m 46

Ontario Jobs and Prosperity Fund

$679.90m $17.43m 39

Alberta Petrochemicals $542.20m $180.73m 3 Diversification Program (PDP) Quebec ESSOR Program

$366.40m $5.55m 66

Quebec Economic Development Program

$265.70m

$0.86m 309

Quebec Capital Mines $264.90m 66.23m 4 Hydrocarbures (CMH) Fund Canada Investments in Forest Industry Transformation (IFIT)

$152.40m $9.53m 16

Ontario Advanced Manufacturing Fund (AMF)

$151.80m $25.29m 6

Nova Scotia NSBI’s Strategic Investment Funds

$113.50m $2.06m 55

Southwestern Ontario Development Fund

$91.30m

$0.59m 154

Source: IncentivesFlow from WAVTEQ 2020

Talent Attraction Attracting and retaining the right people is key to any successful business endeavor. There are a number of job-creation and training grants available in Canada, particularly for companies looking for highly skilled technical people or students. Most of these incentives are at the provincial level, but some noteworthy federal programs include the Canada Summer Jobs, Canada

Job Grant, Mitacs, NSERC-IRAP Youth Employment, and the Apprenticeship Job Creation Tax Credit.

Capital Investments One of the important deciding factors for U.S. companies looking to expand in or relocate to Canada is the level of capital expenditure support offered to

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Table 3 Province Ranking — Incentives as a % of Capital Investment (2014-2019) Destination State Incentives Incentives Total

% Capex (USD) Capex (USD) Newfoundland and Labrador

55.90

Yukon

52.00 $1.60m

Saskatchewan

41.20 $62.40m

$128.00m

Nova Scotia

29.70 $233.30m

$306.00m

Prince Edward Island

28.90 $55.70m

$129.00m

Quebec

20.90 $2.91b

$13.56b

New Brunswick

19.10 $196.20m

Ontario

13.40 $2.29b

$15.55b

Alberta

8.10 $1.06b

$12.95b

Manitoba

4.00 $33.20m

$760.00m

$26.90m

$32.00m $3.00m

$491.00m

Source: IncentivesFlow from WAVTEQ 2020

them. Beyond the historically favorable exchange rates, there are numerous incentives available for capital investments.

One relatively new indirect incentive enacted by the government of Canada in 2019 is the ability to significantly accelerate the depreciation of certain capital assets — particularly for manufacturing and processing or clean energy, including full expensing on a temporary basis.

Data from 2014–2019 shows that most incentives for capital expansion and job creation went to companies in the Basics Materials sector, including chemicals, mining, plastics, steel, aluminum, and wood products, among others. This was followed by the non-renewable

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energy sector and then the automotive sector.

Additionally, the data shows that foreign direct investments (FDI) were significantly more incentivized than domestic investments (Table 1), which demonstrates Canada’s commitment to building global competitiveness for FDI.

Provincial Incentives Canadian provinces are very actively involved in direct incentives — Table 2 outlines the top 10 direct programs across the country.

Table 3 further demonstrates how these programs are distributed among provinces.

Larger provincial investments (USD$200 million or more) include Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. Although Alberta ranks low on this list, it’s likely due to individual deals being larger than average.

In the midst of current global affairs, businesses are looking for stability. Canada offers an attractive, low-risk social and political investment destination with many direct and indirect incentives available for technology development, talent attraction, and capital investments — and more continuing to come to the forefront due to COVID-19. Companies considering relocating or expanding to Canada should work with the appropriate stakeholders and advisors to navigate the complex incentive landscape. Due to the discretionary nature and stringent eligibility criteria, working with the right partners to reduce risk is crucial to fully leverage the significant opportunities that incentives can provide.

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From NAFTA to the USMCA — A Canadian Perspective Continued from page 48

”

Canada is part of trade pacts that represent almost $50 trillion in GDP.

The effects of NAFTA on the Canada-United States trading relationship were significant. U.S. investments, which account for more than half of Canada’s FDI stock, grew from $70 billion to $368 billion between 1993 and 2013.1 In addition, exports from Canada to the U.S. grew from $110 billion to $346 billion, while imports grew by a similar amount.2 NAFTA did not, contrary to some predictions, destroy Canadian manufacturing. However, Canadian manufacturing did not make productivity gains to bring it level with its American counterparts: labor productivity in Canada is at around 70 percent of U.S. levels.3 Furthermore, Canada has become more heavily dependent on trade with the U.S. The Council on Foreign Relations points out that 75 percent of Canadian exports go to a single trading partner — the United States — while most high-income countries do not

typically rely on a single other partner for more than 20 percent of trade.4

Canada’s Trade Strategy Since the turn of the century, Canada has been pursuing bilateral and multilateral trade strategies by ratifying treaties with a number of trading blocs and individual countries. This has been largely thanks to mainstream political consensus in the country, as all major parties have generally been supportive of free trade since the late 1990s. As a country with a market size dwarfed by its immediate neighbor, opening itself up to trade was an easy choice to make.

The past five years, in particular, have seen trade agreements with South Korea, the European Union, and 10 Pacific countries come into force. In effect, Canada is part of trade pacts that represent almost $50 trillion in GDP.5 As the new treaties have only recently started to come into effect, it is still slightly early to study the specific aspects of liberalized trade with Europe and Japan, for instance. However, it is clear that Canada had successfully pursued this strategy, while its southern neighbor, traditionally at the forefront of international trade, had stepped back from being an enthusiastic supporter of globalization.

Canada began multiple negotiations in the mid- to late-2000s partly in order to diversify away from trade with the United States. This period coincided with strong raw material and energy prices, particularly oil. Canada was positioning itself as a commodities hub with a manufacturing industry capable of serving economies representing over half of the world GDP.

Rise of Uncertainty and “End of Globalization” At the same time as Canada was opening new trade agreements, many high-income countries began to question globalization, including its own largest trading

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partner. As emerging powers, mainly China, challenged the post-Cold War order, political support for free trade has diminished in the United States.

To illustrate: neither of the 2016 U.S. presidential candidates supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership — which the United States had negotiated — and were critical of NAFTA. The current U.S. administration has imposed various sanctions against a large number of industries and

”

From Canada’s point of view, the USMCA is a modernization of NAFTA and not a complete revamping.

trading partners, such as China and the European Union.

Canada has also been on the receiving end of such sanctions. In 2018, the Trump administration invoked national security concerns (referred to as Section 232) in order to hit Canadian steel and aluminum with tariffs equal to 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

This situation has generated profound economic uncertainty for the Canadian economy and could, in turn, harm long-term trade and investment. It is in this context that the Trump administration sent a 90-day notification to Congress of its intent to open talks with Mexico and Canada to renegotiate NAFTA in May 2017.

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Enter the USMCA Between May 2017 and October 2018, the United States, Mexico, and Canada negotiated a new free trade agreement. As stated, the USMCA came into effect on July 1, 2020.

Canada was the third signatory to the pact and made some concessions to American demands. However, Canada did succeed in maintaining most of the NAFTA status quo, and some of the U.S. changes had originally been previously agreed to as part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Crucially, the new deal appears to have brought some form of stability to trading relations with Canada’s largest partner.

The Good: From Canada’s point of view, the USMCA is a modernization of NAFTA and not a complete revamping. In particular, the deal now ensures that certificates of origin can be submitted electronically, and the format will not be as strict as before. This should be especially important for exporting SMEs, or those that wish to participate in continent-wide supply-chains, as they will now face less bureaucratic burdens than previously.

Digital trade, which did not exist in 1993, and financial services are now part of the treaty, which will help trade in those industries. However, this would have been covered by the TPP to which Canada, Mexico, and the United States were signatories.

The Canadian automotive industry and certain supply industries will also receive heavier protection from lower-wage competition from Mexico. Content rules now require that 75 percent of a vehicle (up from 52.5 percent) be manufactured within North America in order to be tariff-free. In addition, a minimum wage of $16/ hour must be paid to workers in the industry. This will benefit Canadian and U.S. workers in the automotive sector.

Steel and aluminum also received guaranteed minimum content requirements, equal to 70 percent, for North American manufactured vehicles. In addition, the Canadian automotive industry would be exempt from any future tariffs invoked for reasons of national security, as steel and aluminum were facing during negotiations.

However, this does not stop individual tariffs on certain

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goods to be re-imposed for national security reasons.

The Trump administration did just that on August 16 by imposing a 10 percent tariff on Canadian aluminum.

The Canadian dairy industry will be easier to access for American producers with an opening of the quota system equal to 3.6 percent of the market. Whether this is good or bad depends on whom you ask: food product manufacturers see it as a gain, while dairy producers see it as another breach in the stability of the quota system.

From Canada’s point of view, the fact that the agreement maintains a dispute resolution system (NAFTA Chapter 19), which the Trump administration wanted to eliminate, is viewed as a significant gain for Canada, even though it does not change the status quo.

However, the real benefit of the new agreement is lifting the veil of uncertainty. The uncertainty brought on by the renegotiation has been a major question mark over the Canadian economy, and following its signature, BMO Capital Markets expected the Canadian economy to grow faster than its own 2 percent forecast for 2019.6 The Bad: The automotive industry, which appears to have gained the most, may in fact regret the amount of protection within its own regional trading bloc. The changes to the treaty are expected to make the wider North American industry more vulnerable to competition from overseas manufacturers. In addition, Canada’s strategy of being a trading hub is now limited because of the increase in North American content rules.

On a macro-economic level, the results of the renegotiation are expected to have a slightly negative effect on the GDP of all three trade partners. The CD Howe Institute, a Canadian think tank, estimates that real GDP will be 0.4 percent lower for Canada than under NAFTA. Mexico’s GDP will be impacted by 0.79 percent and U.S. GDP will be 0.1 percent lower than under NAFTA. FDI will be expected to be only marginally lower (-0.024 percent) in Canada under the new agreement.7 The implementation of the new treaty will likely serve to erode competitiveness for the entire region versus China, the rest of Asia, and Europe.

The Ugly: Beyond the basic uncertainty generated by the renegotiations of a longstanding treaty, the new pact signals a desire by the U.S. government to pull out from international trade and protect certain industries (automotive) at the expense of productivity and competitiveness. The new treaty has not totally alleviated uncertainty either, as illustrated by the Trump administration’s re-imposition of tariffs on Canadian aluminum on August 16.

However, perhaps the worst aspect of the new treaty is that it contains a sunset clause that will terminate the agreement automatically after 16 years (although a renewal mechanism is in place). This moves the clock forward on the next period of uncertainty when the treaty will come up for renewal or relapse. Foreign investors may ignore this aspect of the new pact for the moment, but the next round of negotiations has simply been pushed down the road. The USMCA’s predecessor brought stability to the trading relationship and certainty for investors; the new treaty will not be as effective.

In the end, the short-term threat to Canada’s economy was averted and most of NAFTA stayed in place.

How Does This Affect Investors to Canada?

It is still early to tell how exactly investors will react to the new treaty; most of the expected results are speculation and based on economic modeling.

The USMCA may encourage further investments in automotive manufacturing in Canada because wage increases in Mexico will make it less competitive. Other sectors, because they were not the focus of negotiations, will neither be harmed nor helped by the new treaty.

USMCA does not change Canada’s overall trading or investment strategy: it actually creates an incentive to open trade with as many partners as possible and be as open to foreign investment in order to be integrated into global, rather than just regional, supply chains.

The Canadian government is touting the treaty as a “win” in order to remind investors that the negotiations are over and, even with a sunset clause, there is now medium-term certainty to trade in North America. As Lewis Coughlin, Consul, Head of Office and Senior Trade Commissioner at the Consulate of Canada in Guadalajara noted, “The agreement brings stability and certainty to trade in North America by retaining what worked about NAFTA and updating it.”

In the end, Canada can now enjoy several years of stability within North America rather than be concerned with the renegotiation of what had been a generally positive agreement with its closest neighbors.

1

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42965.pdf https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42965.pdf https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42965.pdf 4 https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/nafta-and-usmca-weighing-impact-north-american-trade 5 https://data.worldbank.org 6 https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2018/10/04/canada-joins-north-americas-revisedtrade-deal 7 https://www.cdhowe.org/sites/default/files/attachments/research_papers/mixed/WorkingPaper_Ciuriak-Dadkhah-Xiao_2020_0.pdf 2 3

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>

COVID-19 RESPONSE

Data-Driven Operational Strategies in the Pandemic Era As companies look to make decisions on ramping up operations post–COVID-19, they can look to data that provide insight on specific locations’ pandemic-related risks.

By Calandra Cruickshank, Founder and CEO, StateBook International ®; and Dr. Martha O’Mara, President, Place Strategy Partners

is critical. Competing considerations for restoring operations include questions such as:

• How likely is it that a COVID-19 surge will occur in a certain community?

• Is the community prepared to handle an outbreak?

• Is there adequate access to healthcare for my employees?

• How could my workforce be affected, and what percent

of my workforce should return to the office versus work from home?

Fortunately, there’s plentiful, free data that enable companies to evaluate pandemic-related risks. Until recently, much of that data resided in separate, difficultto-navigate databases. Now, free platforms like ViralInsights.ai, among others, provide detailed views into a variety of critical demographic and behavioral data that companies can use to evaluate risk. For example:

A

s state economies struggle between surging cases of COVID-19 and intense pressure to reopen — albeit with varying degrees of restrictions — companies that reduced or halted operations in response to stay-athome orders are torn between the urgent needs to both restore revenue streams and to ensure the safety of their employees and customers. Since every location has a different dynamic and risk profile, creating a return-to-work strategy is complicated, whether a company operates in five locations or 500. The solution to developing a sound, portfolio-wide strategy includes having ready access to data, analytics, and insights, including regional and communityspecific risk factors. Much of this data is available free-ofcharge and can be easily integrated with traditional location data and information around corporate real estate portfolios.

The Power of Pandemic-Relevant Data Understanding where the hotspots are or could emerge and how pandemic-related risks will impact employees and communities across your portfolio locations

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• What percent of the local population suffers from the range

of pre-existing conditions that we now know contribute to higher rates of death and disability?

• What level of local healthcare resources are available if there is an outbreak — such as local healthcare specialists who can intubate ventilators — and a host of other relevant data points that can increase the possibility of hospitalizations and fatalities in a given area should a surge in COVID cases occur?

• What percent of the local population is most at risk because they take public transportation to work?

• What percent of the local workforce worked from home prior to COVID-19?

Looking across these multiple data points can help to identify risks prior to an outbreak. For example, back in mid-May, the senior management of a major employer in Atlanta felt pressure to re-open office operations in that city after the state began allowing businesses to reopen in late April. Our analysis showed that even though COVID-19 was not yet prevalent in the local area, there were troubling behavioral risk factors in the local populafor free site information, visit us online at www.areadevelopment.com

8/26/20 4:17 PM

tion that compared strikingly to New York and Boston.

Further, the positive test rates, even with limited testing available, were at 10 percent. After examining the data, the company was strongly counseled to consider delaying their reopening. By June 20, Georgia was reporting over 1,000 COVID-19 cases per day, escalating to an average of over 3,500 cases per day by early August. On July 10, Atlanta rolled back its reopening to Phase One standards after the state peaked at 5,000 daily cases.

Understanding a Moving Target Through Moblity Data We are learning more every day about the variables that impact the spread or reduction in COVID-19 transmission — it is truly a moving target. Some companies also are examining mobility data as part of their return-to-work strategy, measuring people’s movement around a community via anonymized cell phone data and correlating it to the number of COVID-19 cases over time.

Data that tracks personal mobility can be an important tool in understanding relative risk. As local areas drop restrictions, we can look at how much time the population around our corporate locations and in the communities where our employees reside is spending on public activities, or how often people are visiting shops,

restaurants, offices, and other places. Mobility patterns reveal the extent to which the new guidelines have changed personal movements and help to reveal the risk of community transmission of COVID-19.

How does movement align with outbreaks? MobilityMonitor.US is a free tool that tracks, summarizes, and visualizes where people are spending time, whether at home or out running errands, working, or otherwise interacting within their city. Using anonymous data generated by cellphones, we can see whether people are going out on the town or simply staying home. Mobility Monitor also enables us to correlate mobility over time (since early April) with the number of cases of COVID-19 and informs whether community levels are above or below average nationally. Custom reports and origin-and-destination studies are also available through the platform, helping to indicate employee risk at the neighborhood level and what level of risk employees may face from commuting to work.

The COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented and requires us to use new sources of data in thoughtful and creative ways to help us consider cause and effect and relative risk. Fortunately, technology and data companies are constantly innovating new ways to aggregate and present data that can help us make more informed, data-rich decisions in this difficult time. n

What Does the Future Continued from page 19 Margaret O’Riley, who handles business recruitment for the automotive, chemicals, plastics, and battery industries for Duke Energy Corp., sees the same trend.

She also reports that many international companies would like to start their projects in the United States but have had to postpone not only due to travel restrictions, but in some cases the suspension of entry visas.

China, the first country to be impacted by the coronavirus, has lifted its lockdown much earlier than Europe or the U.S. One good example of FDI from Europe in China is the current project from Schott AG, headquartered in Mainz, Germany. The company is building a glass plant for pharmaceutical packaging in Huzhen Town, Jinyun County, Zhejiang. Construction time is about 18 months, and the global pandemic hit right at the first phase of the construction.

Frank Lenzen, the project director from Schott who is overseeing the project on site, is very optimistic that they can keep the anticipated schedule despite the coro-

navirus impacts. The main issue he is currently facing is bringing in the specialists to install the equipment.

Everybody traveling from Europe to the Schott site has to quarantine in a hotel for seven days before being able to work on site. And people are hesitant to travel during a pandemic. But overall, Frank Lenzen is very optimistic to finish the project on time.

Although the coronavirus shut down the global economy and the tariff discussions are still ongoing, the outlook for FDI from Europe is positive. Supply chains will be adjusted, and manufacturing will probably return to where the products are consumed. The U.S., Mexico, and Canada are attractive, with competitive energy costs, existing trade agreements with Europe (e.g., FTA EU-MX), and skilled labor. Once the United Sates allows entry again of foreigners from the Schengen countries and China, FDI will increase — especially from the automotive industry as related to electric mobility and autonomous driving. n AREA DEVELOPMENT | Q3 2020

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INCENTIVES

Proactive Management of Incentives Deals In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, companies need to determine if they are at risk of breach of incentives contracts and communicate with the incentive-granting authorities.

By Sean P. Byrne, Of Counsel; and Scott J. Ziance, Partner and Economic Development Incentives Practice Leader; Vorys, Sater, Seymour and Pease LLP

I

f you or your clients have incentives contracts, now is the time to examine your incentive agreements to understand the potential risks if your company is unable to perform key obligations.

The first step in any crisis is to determine exactly what the problem is. Review your incentive agreements to confirm with specificity your obligations. Second, closely review the language of your agreements to determine if any of your obligations can be delayed due to a “force majeure” provision, a “market conditions” provision, or a similar provision. Third, as soon as the crisis begins to abate, and perhaps sooner in certain situations, contact your incentive counterparty to discuss potential options.

Assess Your Situation Your incentive agreements may have ongoing requirements, such as minimum payroll and full-time equivalent employee benchmarks. Some incentive

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agreements, though, require that performance meet minimum levels only through an evaluation date, and thereafter the company’s performance impacts the value of the incentive but not whether it is in breach.

In either case, it is important to understand the agreement, whether you are at risk of being in breach due to the pandemic, and what consequences there are, if any, for a breach.

Identify Key Contract Provisions After you have identified whether there is a potential breach of the agreement, review your agreements to see if they have a “force majeure” provision or a similar “market conditions” provision. In some agreements, this section addresses what happens if performance under an agreement becomes delayed or impossible through outside forces. For example, government orders, such as the shutdown orders issued in most states in the last three months, could directly or indirectly prohibit business operations or restrict timely access to needed items to complete your project, such as governmental permits or inspection approvals.

Some agreements provide force majeure provisions that temporarily relieve a party from its performance obligations. This is a common contractual provision, tolling or delaying obligations due to unforeseen events beyond the party’s control. Those unforeseen events, often listed as acts of god or war or terrorism, may include acts of governments such as a mandated shutdown of private and/or public services, prohibitions against gathering, or the other restrictions that practically cease interstate commerce. To preserve the protections of force majeure under a contract, you may be required to provide notice to the other party of the delaying event (e.g., a specific government action), or take other steps to mitigate the situation. Failing to timely comply with any notice required under the provision could waive your contract rights.

There may be other contract provisions to consider for free site information, visit us online at www.areadevelopment.com

8/26/20 4:10 PM

as well, such as provisions allowing deadline extensions upon request, or alternative performance metrics. It is also important to understand the amendment provision and what an amendment requires. For some public bodies and economic development organizations, an amendment can be handled administratively. For others, an amendment requires public notice and approval at a public meeting, which may need to happen before an actual event of default. In that case, it is important to understand the process, which could be both time-sensitive and subject to a long-scheduled meeting calendar.

Communicate Upon review of your incentive agreements and assessment of your risk of breach, you may need to contact your counterparty. For instance, if you have a loan with a payment coming due that you cannot make, you will want to contact the lender to discuss a forbearance. Given the broad shutdown being ordered by the government, our experience suggests that economic development entities will want to work with you to minimize defaults or provide a reasonable accommodation. If the potential breach is not until later in the year (for a payroll or jobs default measured annually), you should still plan to contact your economic development counterparty now or as soon as the crisis abates. Also contact your counsel or other advisor to assist you in developing a game plan and a proposal to address the potential breach.

Public bodies and economic development organizations are reacting to COVID-19 in several different ways.

Some are waiting for legislative action, or for more clarity about the political implications of any action. For some incentives and some programs, the incentives providers are simply waiting for their phones to ring. For job creation and other programs measured annually, the timing of the crisis is such that last year’s annual reports were filed, and next year’s reports are still far into the future. Generally, economic development entities, both public and private, have been amenable to reasonable extension requests. For loan and other programs with monthly obligations, there have been blanket extensions of six months or more, with the ability to opt-out (rather than having to opt-in).

Beware, though, that automatic and blanket extensions may not be in your best interests. For example, if you are still able to meet your commitments, extending your commitment dates one or two years, and correspondingly extending your compliance and reporting obligations, may be harmful. Monitor your correspondence from your counterparty and be sure you fully weigh whether any blanket extension offered is actually beneficial.

What Happens If Compliance Is Not Feasible?

The pandemic may cause long-term shifts in how certain businesses can or choose to operate. If you are no longer going to be able to meet your metric commit-

Providing a solution that demonstrates a net benefit to the public entity, while extricating the company from an anticipated future breach, can be a win-win. ments, and you have communicated with your counterparty, consider steps to mitigate damage and risk.

For example, you may be able to negotiate an early termination of the incentive, forgoing future benefits in return for waiving repayment. Public bodies do not want to have to clawback funds. Providing a solution that demonstrates a net benefit to the public entity, while extricating the company from an anticipated future breach, can be a win-win. Alternatively, if some repayment is required, it is best and most effective to negotiate the amount and process to avoid an action before a public body or in court that puts the company’s performance into the public eye and could impact the company’s reputation and its ability to get incentives in the future.

Lessons Learned Crisis creates learning opportunities. In your future incentive agreements, carefully review and negotiate the force majeure provisions, which often do not include specific “epidemic” or “pandemic” language. Also, consider negotiating a termination provision that allows the recipient to terminate the agreement. The public body may require a full or partial repayment, but by initially negotiating a termination right, the incentive recipient can mitigate the public and reputational risk of damage. Rather than being in breach of an agreement with a public body into the future, or having to negotiate a settlement without any leverage, a termination provision may allow the company to save money and save its reputation by not violating its agreement, but rather following the contract terms. In addition, such a provision may mitigate future reporting of the company’s performance under the agreement, since the company was never in default. n AREA DEVELOPMENT | Q3 2020

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