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CHRISTO 2050: Rewrapping Gotham

Laurie Kerr, FAIA, LEED AP Director of Policy, Urban Green Facades + April 16, 2015


Will we have to re-wrap New York to achieve Mayor de Blasio’s target of 80% carbon reductions by 2050?


NYC’S CARBON EMISSIONS ARE DOMINATED BY ITS BUILDINGS

70%

OF NYC’S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS COME FROM ENERGY USED IN BUILDINGS


ACHIEVING 80 X 50 WILL REQUIRE HUGE ENERGY EFFICIENCY UPGRADES*

NEW CONSTRUCTION

65%

EXISTING BUILDINGS

45%

FUEL & POWER

LESS ENERGY THAN BUILDINGS BUILT TODAY, BY 2025 OR 2030

LESS ENERGY THAN THEY DO NOW, ON AVERAGE

•  PHASE OUT OIL •  ELECTRIFICATION OF 50% OF HEAT AND HOT WATER •  (GRID TO BECOME MUCH CLEANER)

* This represents one possible scenario; one could, for example, relax the requirements on new construction, but then existing buildings would need to become even more efficient.


IMPROVING BUILDING ENVELOPE PERFORMANCE WILL BE CRITICAL

41%

OF NYC’S CARBON FROM BUILDINGS IS IMPACTED BY BUILDING ENVELOPES (HEATING + COOLING)

63%

IF LIGHTING IS INCLUDED


NEW CONSTRUCTION: ENERGY CODE SHIFT BY 2025 OR 2030 300

250

Commercial Office

Multifamily Residential

Code until Jan. 2015 Existing code and median

200

150

100

50

0

Code until Jan. 2015


WHAT WILL THIS MEAN FOR BUILDING ENVELOPES?

SMALLER BUILDINGS

•  MORE ENVELOPE DOMINATED •  MOVE TOWARD PASSIVE HOUSE-TYPE STANDARDS?

HIGHRISES

•  NEED MODELS ACCEPTABLE TO R.E. INDUSTRY •  NEED THE “2030 STANDARD” •  WILL THERE BE A BIFURCATION BETWEEN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL? •  RESIDENTIAL: CLOSE TO A PASSIVE HOUSETYPE STRATEGY; NEED TO SOLVE TECHNICAL AND COST BARRIERS (LARGER, THICKER PANELS; THERMAL BRIDGING, ETC.) •  COMMERCIAL: HEAT DOMINATED, SO WHAT IS THE ENVELOPE STRATEGY?


BUT NYC’S EXISTING BUILDINGS REPRESENT THE LARGER CHALLENGE

80%

BY 2050, ROUGHLY OF THE BUILDINGS IN NYC WILL BE BUILDINGS WE ALREADY HAVE TODAY*

*AND THERE ARE A MILLION OF THEM!


EXISTING BUILDINGS HAVE TO REDUCE 45% ON AVERAGE 300

250

Commercial Office

Multifamily Residential

Code until Jan. 2015 Existing code and median

200

150

100

50

0

Code until Jan. 2015


THIS IS ALSO AN UPRECEDENTED OPPORTUNITY FOR THE INDUSTRY

5.4 BILLION SQUARE FEET TO BE RETROFITTED


A QUARTILE APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM

Fraction of sector energy used by each quartile .4

Achieving a 45% sector wide reduction with a stepped quartile approach

Approx. 60% of sector energy is used in the bottom two quartiles

.25

Approx. 78% of sector savings comes from the bottom two quartiles

.4

60%

.25

.2

.2 45%

.15 .16

35% .14

.13

.15 20% .15 .12


WHAT HAPPENS TO ENVELOPES IN EACH QUARTILE?

QUARTILE

60%

4

VERY DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS:

3

DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS:

2

STANDARD RETROFIT

1

MODEST RETROFIT

45% 35%

4

3

2

QUARTIL E

QUARTIL E

QUARTIL E

TH

RD

ND

20% .15

1

ST

QUARTIL E

•  RE-WRAPPING/ INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING •  SOME TEAR-DOWN/ REBUILD? •  SOME RE-WRAPPING/ INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING

•  ROOF INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING

•  SEALING •  (MOSTLY E. SYSTEMS/ OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS)


≈ 75% OF NYC’S BUILDING STOCK WILL NEED ENVELOPE UPGRADES

QUARTILE

4

VERY DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS:

3

DEEP ENERGY RETROFITS:

2

STANDARD RETROFIT

1

MODEST RETROFIT

•  RE-WRAPPING/ INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING •  SOME TEAR-DOWN/ REBUILD? •  SOME RE-WRAPPING/ INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING

•  ROOF INSULATION •  NEW WINDOWS/ SEALING

•  SEALING •  (MOSTLY E. SYSTEMS/ OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS)


NEED COST EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES

FAÇADE TYPES

•  OLDER CURTAIN WALLS: DETAILING/ FEASIBILITY? •  SIMPLE BRICK FACADES: WRAPPING •  DECORATIVE MASONRY FACADES: INTERIOR INSULATION •  ETC.

SCALING ISSUES

•  COST EFFECTIVE, DURABLE SOLUTIONS •  COORDINATE WITH LL87 AND WINDOW REPLACEMENT CYCLES (OVER 35 YEARS) •  STRATEGIES FOR MINIMAL DISRUPTION •  TRAINED WORKFORCE •  SCALING MOST DIFFICULT FOR 1-4 FAMILIES: REPRESENT 850,000 PROPERTIES


If we do our jobs, much of New York will look different in 2050

CHRISTO 2050: Rewrapping Gotham presentation  
CHRISTO 2050: Rewrapping Gotham presentation  

CHRISTO 2050: Rewrapping Gotham presentation by Laurie Kerr, Urban Green Council, Facades+ conference New York 2015