COMPASS 2024 - Collapse

COMPASS THE GLOBAL VOICE OF PROFESSIONAL FUTURISTS

COLLAPSE

Compass Magazine March 2024 Compass is published by the Association of Professional Futurists under a Creative Commons License, unless stated explicitly otherwise. Some rights reserved.

About Compass Compass magazine strives to be the global voice of futurists and foresight practitioners.

As an official publication of the APF, our mission is to bring out the voices of foresight professionals of all ages and all backgrounds to create opportunities to advance the foresight profession and enhance the knowledge, wisdom and insight of our members, who serve as ambassadors for the profession wherever they are.

Editorial Staff Editor: Stephen Dupont, U.S. Design Director: Harmanjot Kaur, Canada Career Columnist: Tracey Follows, UK Advisor: Richard Slaughter, Australia Advisor: Patricia Lustig, UK Advisor: Graham Norris, UK Contributors to this issue: Stephen AguilarMillan, Mathias Behn Bjornhof, Andrew Curry, Riane Eisler, Tracey Follows, Mark Frauenfelder, Sylvia Gallusser, Dr. Richard David Hames Sarah Holbrook, Elina Hiltunen, Christopher Jones, Patricia Lustig, Monica Mastrantonio, Jim Murray, Graham Norris, Gill Ringland, Sanjay Rout, Deidre Samson, Wendy Schultz, Richard Slaughter, Jeremy Wilken, Wen Yang.

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Contribute Articles to Compass To contribute an article to Compass, please contact the editor or a member of the APF board of directors. For the next issue of Compass, submit article ideas to Stephen Dupont at stephen.dupont@pockethercules.com Writer’s Guidelines: Compass seeks articles that are 750 to 1,500 words in length. Submit articles, written in English, in a Word document, along with a short bio and a photo of the author. The editor of Compass reserves the right to edit all articles for grammar and length.

Association of Professional Futurists www.apf.org Officers: Vice-Chair: Tanja Schindler, Germany Vice-Chair: Miguel Jiménez, Spain Treasurer: Seth Harrell, USA Directors at Large: Abril Chimal, Mexico Zan Chandler, Canada Stephen Dupont, USA Maggie Greyson, Canada Maya Van Leemput, Ph.D., Belgium Patricia Lustig, UK Luke Tay, Singapore Steve Tighe, Australia Jeremy Wilken, USA

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CONTENTS

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EDITOR’S NOTES Stephen Dupont

COLLAPSE 11

THE CROSSROADS OF FATE AND DESIRE Dr. Richard David Hames

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COLLAPSE RINGS MANY CHANGES Wendy Schultz

2 2 CATASTROPHE OR

OPPORTUNITY: A PARADIGM SHIFT Riane Eisler

2 9 IS COLLAPSE INEVITABLE ?

Richard Slaughter

4 0 EMBRACING THE DECLINE AND COLLAPSE IMAGES Christopher Jones

4 6 GETTING TO GRIPS WITH COLLAPSE Andrew Curry

5 5 FRACTURED BACKBONES LEAD TO COLLAPSE

Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland

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USING SCIENCE FICTION AS A TOOL FOR MILITARY AND DEFENSE ORGANIZATIONS TO IMAGINE THE FUTURE OF WAR Elina Hiltunen

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COLLAPSE: TO FALL TOGETHER

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COLLAPSING CREATIVITY: SHOULD WE ABANDON THE COLLAPSE SCENARIO?

Dr. Monica Mastrantonio

Jeremy Wilken

WORLD OF FUTURES THINKING 81

THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY: A GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE Deidre Samson and Ian Paterson

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TRAPS OF FUTURES THINKING

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FUTURE OF YOU: CAREER ADVICE FOR PROFESSIONAL FUTURISTS

Graham Norris

Tracey Follows

1 0 0 HOW CAN WE SPECULATE

ABOUT THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE? Stephen Aguilar-Millan

1 0 4 BREAKING THE BOUNDARIES OF REALITY: THE EMERGENCE OF IMMERSIVE TECHNOLOGIES Prof. (Dr.) Sanjay Rout

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MEET YOUR APF LEADERS: Q&A WITH STEVE TIGHE

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THE WISDOM OF CODE: A FICTION Sylvia Gallusser

1 2 1 THE FUTURE OF READING IN THE ERA OF GENERATIVE AI Wen Yang

HOW TO 1 2 7 SEVEN THINGS FUTURISTS COULD DO BETTER Mathias Behn Bjørnhof

1 3 5 FIVE KEY PRINCIPLES FOR

CRAFTING ENGAGING AND EFFECTIVE FORECASTS Mark Frauenfelder

BOOKS AND MEDIA 1 4 0 WHAT’S NEXT IN THE FUTURE POD 1 4 2 REVIEW: THE GENESIS

MACHINE: OUR QUEST TO REWRITE LIFE IN THE AGE OF SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY Sarah Holbrook

1 4 6 REVIEW: BRIDGE MAKERS: BECOMING A CITIZEN FUTURIST Jim Murray

EDITOR'S NOTES MARCH 2024 COLLAPSE. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN TO YOU? In my mind, I see a wide range of images.

A world thrown into chaos after a pandemic, as depicted in the book and TV series, Station Eleven, or the book, Earth Abides.

The collapse of the Berlin Wall, ushering in a new era of both hopefulness and complexity.

Or the potential collapse of democracies around our world due to the growing threat of authoritarianism.

In our latest issue of Compass, we have invited a number of professional futurists – Wendy Schultz, Andrew Curry, Richard Slaughter, David Hames, Patricia Lustig and more -- to share their perspectives on an issue that seems to be growing in the consciousness of people throughout the world. It’s an issue that raises many questions, such as: Should Collapse always be considered a potential scenario? And if so, what exactly does Collapse mean – because it can mean different things to different people or groups or organizations.

And that’s just for starters.

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In addition to our Collapse section, we continue to share with you provocative thinking in our World of Futures Thinking section, practical how-to information in our How-To section, and a couple book reviews in our Books & Media section.

As we prepare to go through another seasonal change, find yourself a nice quiet spot and settle in for another issue of articles that I believe will continue to expand your thinking and enhance your skills as professional futurists.

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WELCOME NEW WRITERS TO COMPASS With this issue, we would like to welcome the following new directors to the Association of Professional Futurists’ board of directors: Abiril Chimal, Mexico, Luke Tay, Singapore, Steve Tighe, Australia, and Jeremy Wilken, USA.

and John A. Sweeney, with the support of Lisa Giuliani and PJ Demdam, received a record number of entries. To learn about all of the winning and honorable mention entries, visit APF.org.

WRITE FOR COMPASS? Would you be interested in writing for Compass magazine? Share your ideas with the editor, Stephen Dupont, by writing a short “pitch” and emailing it to him at stephen.dupont@pockethercules.com.

We generally are looking for smart, thoughtfully written articles about thought-provoking topics that are about 1,500 words in length.

We would like to congratulate Tanja Schindler, Germany, Miguel Jiménez, Spain, and Seth Harrell, USA, for their election to serve as chair, vice-chair, and treasurer, respectively.

THANK YOU

And we would like to thank Shermon Cruz, Philippines, Laura Schlehuber, USA, Modafar Akhoirshieda, UAE, and Mauricio Hernandez, Mexico, for their service to the APF.

Sincerely, Stephen Dupont Editor

Thank you to the entire team that put this issue of Compass together, especially our design director, Harmanjot Kaur.

IF AWARD WINNERS In case you missed it, the Association of Professional Futurists recently announced the winners of the 2023 IF AWARDS. The APF team that oversaw the awards, led by APF board member, Maggie Greyson, and MARCH 2024

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Stephen Dupont

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THE CROSSROADS OF FATE AND DESIRE

By Dr. Richard David Hames

Image source: Midjourney

We have reached a crossroads in human evolution. A juncture that goes to the heart of whether we are just another species on the path to extinction, or one able to conjure a more sophisticated and advanced capacity for endurance.

While technocrats offer positive scenarios with an edge, where artificial intelligence is used to eliminate drudgery and powerful MARCH 2024

computers are able to solve all the problems facing us, including the inevitability of death, many others feel as though our civilization is on the verge of collapse and that our lives are losing all meaning. These two conditions can also inhabit the individual mind concurrently as we swing between optimism and anguish on a daily basis.

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Much of what we have made, and then taken for granted, appears to be broken.

Old operating models stopped working long ago and absurdity seems to have parachuted into so many facets of life where social interaction and cooperation are key. Our eyes are glued to screens from the time we wake to the time we retire, exhausted by incessant rounds of advertising fictions and tacit capitulation to routines that insist on dragging us back to our manufactured normalcies.

At the same time we are endeavouring to cope with an estranged exterior presence, facing volatile uncertainties while taking refuge from nature’s novel impulse to punish us for our greedy indiscretions and lack of ecological stewardship. Confused and anxious cannot explain the half of it.

Excessive surveillance by governments everywhere, a unilateral response to complexity driven by a fear of the future, has become just another unacceptable intrusion into our daily lives. Social media is proving to be more alienating than not, whispering half-truths and outright deceptions that many believe and take to be sacrosanct. Mainstream media have morphed into propaganda machines, constantly churning out the dogma and slogans demanded by old empires hell bent on preserving hegemony for its own sake.

Celebrities who become famous for their fame are revered by hordes of ordinary men and women as the embodiment of human perfection. Our children know the names of every Marvel hero yet cannot name a single shrub or tree.

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The industry of fakes that started so innocuously with cosmetic surgery now extends to pop songs, paintings, and voiceovers composed by computers and interpretative analyses delivered in seconds by large language model-based chatbots with the capacity to scan almost the entirety of online knowledge in seconds.

The latest international trade agreements guarantee greater wealth for those already extremely affluent while tenaciously ignoring the needs of the poor. Organized religions are quietly fading or splintering into a confusion of incoherent yet violent flashpoints. Dualism reigns supreme as it did in the centuries prior to the Enlightenment. Indeed we seem to be falling into neofeudalism on so many levels.

And just as we are confronting the limits imposed by nature on what we can and cannot do, so an impasse has been reached in our capacity to deal with critical issues in a collective manner that might benefit us all.

Meanwhile several scientists are seriously persuaded that we’re living in a hologram. If that is our reality then the potentate coders (God if you will) must have a very warped sense of humour. And if we assume that their jesting is likely to persist then perhaps none of this matters anyway. Nothing is within our means to control. On the other hand if there is no higher intelligence, if we are all there is and we do have agency to take a new path, we must come to terms with the need for an unprecedented ontological revolution.

Namely, an appreciation that all life is sacred, and that if we are exceptional, that must be reflected in our responsibility to steward life on Earth virtuously and not merely for our own convenience or craving.

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CASCADE OF DISRUPTIVE EVENTS During the coming decades we will face a cascade of massively disruptive events that will fuel each other both economically and ecologically. Many of these will disable conventional institutional power structures, opening up space for alternative socio-economic, governance and political innovations to embed. As these changes are embraced, collaboration on an unprecedented scale will be needed if we are to transition the human family into a global community that is more empathic, inclusive and adaptive. For this is also a genesis moment – pregnant with energy for purposeful renewal.

Capitalism is no longer killing us silently.

Divisions between the owners of capital and the poor have now become the number one enemy of just about any viable civilization one might imagine. Another shadow cast over our capacity to transcend the human condition is the toxic legacy of colonialism. The patriarchal gerentocracy of the Global North must cease their increasingly unashamed pillage of the Global South if we are going to go beyond the wholly specious notion of exceptionalism and racial superiority. And although people deride my logic when I speak about the need to understand and possibly integrate ancient wisdom traditions more thoroughly into present practices, it’s actually no laughing matter.

Obviously there are massive impediments already impacting us on a daily basis that will ultimately decide whether we can emerge with our collective sanity and physical wellbeing intact after the inevitable failure of our most life-critical systems. The ferris wheel of desire and consumption, fueled by greed and driven by the competitive demands of corporate marketing, is one of these. As we buy more and more stuff we don’t actually need, we are simply amplifying this cycle, adding to our physical problems of pollution and waste and health problems of anxiety and depression. Evolving a theory of economics that serves human purposes better than capitalism is another. Primitive emotional instincts stimulated by war yet another. All three of these ingrained doctrines are leading us down a path to ruin.

Image source: Canva MARCH 2024

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Obviously the engagement of key influencers from all sectors of society will be critical, but the outcome cannot be a top-down, one-sizefits-all model needing huge amounts of corporate PR to convince people of its merit, especially as sacrifice will inevitably be a part of untangling today from whatever comes next – a political necessity we’re still not yet ready to accept as it jars with our sense of linear progress.

Image source: Canva

DESIGNING OUR WAY INTO BETTER FUTURES So how should we design our way into better futures? I’ve always thought the standard foresight toolkit offers fairly formulaic solutions compared to the emancipation of more inventive play in the context of capricious complexity. And so I will avoid nominating any one example from an infinite number of futures that might evolve from the conditions I’ve outlined here. Instead I want to propose, in the most general of terms, a radical renewal of the existing worldview, to a more joyous and just world-system, interrogating ways we can undertake that journey – noting that the critical mass of change-makers needed will be possibly less than 10 per cent of open-minded citizens. It’s been estimated that the European renaissance originated from the ideas and funding from about 8 per cent of the population, while today China is controlled by about 7 per cent of its inhabitants.

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Targeting specific communities at a grassroots level will help grow acceptance, creating added coherence as the familiar becomes strange and the unfamiliar common place in a dance between past and future. In terms of messaging and dissemination of information, integral inquiry and small group conversations will play a vital role. How all these are brought together will depend on how quickly activists and the owners of capital can engage, and obstacles dealt with, in a manner that does not hark back to outmoded values and toxic practices.

I would imagine different industries requesting an opportunity to forge their own paths – if only to avoid public humiliation and the need for forgiveness when confessing to a range of degenerative habits. The legal profession might want to convene meetings in camera when holding up a moral compass to some of its more cruel, commercial, and less compassionate rituals. That should not be condoned. Governments should be compelled to sit down with big business and peak industry bodies when redrafting their critical relationships. Public sittings would need to be mandated, with corrupt practices exposed to the full light of day. Anything else would simply be hiding from the truth, returning to a status quo which we are still only grudgingly accepting as being unsustainable.

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If love and appreciation do take root, supplanting greed and envy, and laws such as ecocide are unreservedly embraced in any next empathic world-system, the professions most affected will be the law, accompanied by the systems of justice and correction, politics, along with industrial manufactures like pharmaceuticals and chemicals.

They will all need encouragement and help, insights from the public, and alternative ways of thinking about their future, to transcend a past that could still try and stick to them like superglue.

Of course what I’m suggesting here is the most optimistic of situations: a world where collapse has been embraced and eclipsed rather than resisted; a world configured to include and transcend the very best versions of what it means to be human; and the thwarting of fate by a desire to endure, made possible only through a giant leap of consciousness.

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Dr. Richard David Hames Dr. Richard David Hames, based in Bangkok, is a senior statesman in the field of strategic foresight. Founder of the Centre for the Future and a Fellow of the World Academy of Art & Science, Richard is currently cofounder of The Ecority Trust, a small cadre of investors exploring new civilisational models inspired by love and stewardship. His mentoring clientele includes heads of state, government ministers, leading CEOs, and some of the world’s most innovative entrepreneurs.

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COLLAPSE RINGS MANY CHANGES

By Wendy Schultz

People often ask why so many catastrophe movies exist, and so few utopian/protopian (positive preferred futures) movies. It’s the drama: collapse offers so much more narrative weight.

Every set of scenarios should have at least one collapse scenario, of course -- they are iconic and archetypal. Collapse is represented in the original Hawai’i archetypes and is still included in the more limited set of the current Hawai’i Four Futures (Dator).

Collapse archetypes are inscribed as well in decks and methods such as The Thing from the Future (Candy, SitLab). So, to join in this festival of dystopian drama, I thought I would contribute a collapse scenario from a current project.

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Image source: SItuation lab, Game Design and Implementation by the Situation Lab (Stuart Candy & Jeff Watson)

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HANGRY GAMES As part of the 100th anniversary celebration of the founding of the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), we (Jigsaw Foresight) helped WOAH identify critical emerging changes, from which we built five challenging, exploratory scenarios. The most dire was driven by three possibilities: Can AI do everything?; Synchronised harvest failure; and New powers in the world. It begins with a drift into dissolution: Coming out of the twenties, global politics slowly fragmented. Shifting economic centers created new power blocs vying for influence over global markets and trade. Border conflicts increased, especially where strategic resources were in play. Global actors -old powers and rising powers -- could no longer rely on ‘how it’s always been done’. “ Turbulence increases, driving destabilization, pushing the world into postnormal times: “an inbetween period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have yet to be born, and very few things seem to make sense.’’

People, communities, organizations, and societies innovate to adapt to the accelerating climate crisis and to mitigate its impacts -- but the adaptive responses useful in the short-term drive feedback through the system that accelerates the downward spiral in the long-term: “Increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) applications in veterinary services and throughout the global animal production and food chain helped manage rising risks due to environmental challenges, and also offered advanced approaches to disease and pest monitoring and detection…

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Image source: Canva 17

Image source:ChatGPT/Dall-E prompted by Wendy Schultz

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But the costs for installation and upkeep of these systems worsened inequalities among livestock farmers and businesses throughout the global food chain. The intense energy needs of AI agricultural monitoring systems meant only those systems installed alongside extensive green energy infrastructure could avoid making climate change worse.“

melted, and rising seas infiltrated freshwater tables along many coasts.

Rainfall patterns shifted randomly from year to year. But experts thought conditions would stabilize. So, the synchronized harvest failure of 20372038 caught farmers, distributors, consumers, and world leaders by surprise.”

Innovations, of course, do not stay in the lanes for which they were designed.

People find new uses for them -- in play, in art, in leisure, in crime.

Strategic mineral and food resources were redirected to different players on the global stage, resulting in shortages in some places. Grey and black markets flourished for scarce goods.

Those markets put AI systems to use for fraud, misinformation, and bioweapons development. Regional conflicts along borders shifted government budgets to the military and military technology, and away from international science.”

And if the innovations actually have minds of their own, they might begin comparing notes. Automated, distributed diversity of perspective might generate insights that their human clients could still manage to deny.

We didn’t pay attention in 2035 when separate national, academic, and NGO eco-sensor AI arrays in Latin America, the Arctic, Eastern Europe, mid-Africa, the Pacific Ocean, and low Earth orbit all warned of rising probabilities of ecosystem tipping points. The glaciers MARCH 2024

“World food trade went from merely fragmented to total chaos, whether for feedstocks, crops, or animal production. Hunger drove people to use contaminated feed for their animals -- and then for themselves. As feedstock for animals disappeared, those animals died; the animal production collapsed. The hungry turned to wildlife for alternative sources of protein -- and as a last resort, to pets. A new wave of extinctions followed.

Entire communities were abandoned to the dead and dying, and people moved in search of food, with no attention to borders -- border skirmishes became conflicts, and conflicts became wars. Food supply chains were failing all around the world. Disease vectors and disease transmission chains were opening up new channels for zoonotic transfer, as people searched ecosystems for sources of protein, or migrated through them in search of safe places to live.”

Now I’m not going to share the full scenario, but I can assure you that in the end people work together to address these crises and build towards a more hopeful future from the ashes.

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COLLAPSE: IT’S EVERYWHERE, FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE That was the darkest of the five WOAH scenarios, with the most pervasively catastrophic outcomes. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized that each of our five scenarios contained a collapse: Eco-Revolution Rising -- a food system disrupted by innovation: collapse of the traditional; In WOAH We Trust -- a food system disrupted by misinformation: collapse of truth; Hangry Games -- a food system disrupted by the polycrisis: collapse of the food chain; Animal Health from the Bottoms of the Oceans to the Stars -- a food system transformed by value shifts: collapse of the ordinary; and Farming for Resilience / Whole Health -- a food system transformed by wellbeing: collapse of centralization and monoculture.

Indeed, any transformation by necessity encompasses a collapse -- something must give way, something must be eroded or destroyed for transformation to occur. The liminality of change always discards something.

Marshall McLuhan’s Tetrad suggests this. A Tetrad examines change, especially innovations, by asking us to think first about what capabilities the change enhances and what it re-enables or MARCH 2024

retrieves. The Tetrad then asks us to consider how the change will reverse or obsolesce items, behaviors, assumptions, or values that we currently take for granted and may hold dear: Enhance -- What does the change amplify or intensify?

Reverse -- When the change hits an extreme, what values flip to their opposites and what is the result?

Retrieve -- What previously discarded item, behavior, assumption, or value reemerges?

Obsolesce -- What item, behavior, assumption, or value does this change replace, reduce, erode, or remove?

Every innovation ushers some previous innovation off the landscape of our lives: a specific, localized collapse.

Richard Lum’s Verge General Framework poses the same critical question. After asking people to reflect on how an emerging change might affect how we define ourselves and our reality; how we relate to each other and the world; how we connect and transmit meaning; how we create new goods, services, and roles; and how we consume or inhabit those goods, services, and roles, Verge poses a final question. How does this emerging change affect what we destroy -- what we choose, or are forced to destroy? What do we need to destroy to free space for change or transformation? What must collapse to create a liminal space in which a more positive future can be born?

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EVERY ARCHETYPE HAS A DARK SIDE The Hawai’i scenario archetypes were identified via content analysis of the futures and foresight literature. These generic futures were used for “incasting” - exploring the future of anything, based on how a given “anything” might transform in the context of each archetype scenario. The original set included continued growth; collapse; discipline; green; and high-tech transformation. This set was expanded during discussions facilitated by Chris Jones as part of his doctorate research to add in high spirit transformation. In using these archetypes for incasting various topics, as well as for futures workshop warm-ups, it became clear over time that something of a ‘collapse du jour’ dynamic existed.

Different eras fear different types of collapse. This suggests that collapse is simply the Janus coin opposite face of the ‘regular’ archetypes. The different flavors of collapse depict a future that would be feared by those comfortable in a specific archetype. For example: Continued Growth; Nightmare: Economic Collapse Environmental Sustainability (Green); Nightmare: Ecological Collapse Ideological Exclusionism (Discipline); Nightmare: Anarchy (collapse of rule of law) High-Tech Transformation; Nightmare: Infrastructure/System Collapse Spiritual Transcendence Transformation); Nightmare: Anomic Collapse

(High

Spirit

All our futures, whether exploratory or normative, contain a seed of our fear of the nightmare scenario - and all our fears contain a seed of hope.

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Wendy Schultz Wendy Schultz has been engaged in futures research and participatory foresight for over forty years, designing futures research projects for NGOs, government agencies, and businesses. Her recent work includes a scenario building for the World Organization for Animal Health; expanding the NGFS climate model forecasts into scenario narratives using the Deep Transitions conceptual model; and the Law in the Emerging Bio Age report for the UK Law Society.

Wendy is Director of Infinite Futures and Co-Founder at Jigsaw Foresight. She currently teaches futures studies in the Masters Program in Strategic Foresight at the University of Houston; is a Fellow of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy; a Senior Fellow of the Center for Post-Normal Policy and Futures Studies; a member of the Association of Professional Futurists; a Fellow of the World Futures Studies Federation; and a Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures, and Commerce 21

CATASTROPHE OR OPPORTUNITY: A PARADIGM SHIFT

By Riane Eisler

Our world is lurching from crisis to crisis: climate change, authoritarianism, againgrowing inequality, disinformation, chronic warfare, and nuclear/biological/electronic breakthroughs.

These portents of catastrophe urgently call for a fundamental transformation in how we think and act on our fragile planet: a different paradigm.

As a child Holocaust refugee from the Nazis, I experienced catastrophic traumas.

Fleeing Vienna, where I was born was traumatic. So was growing up in the industrial slums of Havana surrounded by poverty.

These formative experiences led me to questions many of us have asked at some point in our lives: Why, when we humans have such enormous capacities for consciousness, caring, and creativity has there been so much insensitivity, cruelty, and destructiveness?

Does it have to be this way?

Is there an alternative? If so, what is it?

Image source: Canva MARCH 2024

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Years later, when I embarked on the crosscultural, trans-historical research of human social possibilities for which I am known, I was animated by these early questions. In seeking answers, I departed from older research norms that examine human societies piecemeal. I was interested in comparing various cultures, in part because by the time I migrated to the United States in my early teens, again as an outsider, I clearly understood that what people consider “normal” is not the same everywhere.

The new multicultural, interdisciplinary research method I developed is the study of relational dynamics, drawing from many fields and times. The result of this wholesystems re-examination of our past, present, and potential future answers the question of whether we can build a more sustainable and equitable world with a resounding yes.

However, it also shows that we cannot see what we need to do through the lens of conventional studies or conventional social categories. To see, and build, this positive alternative requires a new paradigm.

NEW FINDINGS ABOUT OUR PAST It is said that those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. The story of cultural evolution as a linear rise from barbarism to civilization is not only contradicted by common observations (such as “civilized” Nazi Germany,) but also by the evidence cumulating about what societies in the mainstream of ancient cultures were actually like.

Findings — largely overlooked — from the natural and social sciences debunk the popular story that we are hard-wired for selfishness, war, rape, and greed.

Neuroscience shows that our brain circuits, and therefore how we think, feel, and act – including how we vote – are strongly shaped by our environments, which for humans are primarily our surrounding cultures as mediated by families, education, religion, politics, and economics. Our large-brained species is very flexible: we are equipped for destructiveness and creativity, rote conformity and independence, cruelty and caring.

Which capacities are expressed, or inhibited, largely depends on our cultural environments. The issue is not nature versus nurture, but nature and nurture.

And the evidence is that for thousands of years we humans lived in societies that were more equitable and peaceful, societies where our capacities for caring, consciousness, and creativity were supported rather than inhibited.

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If we examine human foraging (gathering/hunting) societies, which lasted for millennia, we see this way of living in sharp relief. Even in later, early farming societies such as Çatalhöyük (near the modern city of Konya in south central Turkey), there are no signs of destruction through warfare and a generally equitable distribution of wealth. Moreover, contrary to the notion that male-dominance is our inevitable heritage, as the archeologist Ian Hodder (who excavated Çatalhöyük extensively) wrote, there are in Çatalhöyük no signs that being born male of female made any difference in one’s status.

But what should we call these societies?

Conventional categories such as right/left, religious/secular, capitalist/socialist, Eastern/Western, and so forth are of no help. There have been unequal, violent, warlike, rigidly male-dominated societies in all these categories. Examples are contemporary Eastern societies, such as the Taliban and Iran, that are also religious; secular Western societies like Orban’s Hungary and Putin’s Russia, and capitalist Arab oil-producing monarchies as well as the former socialist USSR and today’s socialist North Korea.

Not only that – and this is vital – these old social categories, which we inherited from earlier more unequal, violent, rigidly maledominated times, ignore or marginalize gender relations and parent-child relations. So do older methodologies – even though neuroscience shows that early experiences and observation profoundly affect how our brains develop, and therefore what people consider normal and moral.

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To understand our past, present, and the possibilities for our future, we need new social categories that tell us what has to be built to support a more equitable and sustainable way of living.

A NEW SYSTEM OF SOCIAL CLASSIFICATION The new methodology of the study of relational dynamics focuses on relationships: how we relate to one another and to nature. It uses a whole-systems approach that draws from a much larger data base than conventional studies. It includes the whole of humanity (both its female and male forms, and everyone in between); the whole of our history (including the millennia of prehistory); and the whole of our lives (not just politics, economics, and technology, but also where we all live (our families, and hence women and children: the majority of humanity that has been marginalized or ignored in conventional studies and social categories).

Looking at this larger picture makes it possible to see patterns or social configurations that repeat themselves trans-historically and crossculturally. Since there were no names for these social configurations, one outcome of this whole-systems study were new cultural categories: the domination system and the partnership system. Or rather, because no society is a pure domination or partnership system, the partnership-domination biocultural lens (biocultural because, as noted above, we know from neuroscience that genes interact with their environments, which for humans are primarily cultural).

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Domination systems produce high levels of stress and fear – from stressful early family experiences to the artificial creation of economic scarcity.

Partnership environments enhance the expression of the capacities needed for a more humane and sustainable future: our human capacities for caring, consciousness, and creativity.

The partnership system and the domination system show that our foundational human relations in families play a key role in whether a society is more just or unjust, more peaceful or violent, protects human rights or considers chronic human rights violations normal and moral.

Authoritarian, repressive, violent societies – whether old, such as Assyria, Imperial China, or the European Middle Ages, or modern, such as Hitler’s rightist Germany or Stalin’s leftist former Soviet Union, or religious, such as Khomeini’s Iran, the Taliban, and the U.S. “rightistfundamentalist alliance” – share the domination system’s configuration.

First, all institutions, from the family to religion, economics, and politics, have authoritarian, top-down structures.

Second, the male human form is ranked over the female form, with rigid gender stereotypes and a gendered system of values in which anything associated with masculinity in domination systems (e.g., conquest, winning, violence) is superior to the stereotypically feminine (e.g., nonviolence, caring, caregiving). Third, abuse and violence are built into domination systems (from child-and-wifebeating to aggressive warfare, from torture and witch-burnings to pogroms and lynchings). They are required to MARCH 2024

maintain rigid top-down rankings of man over man, man over woman, race over race, religion over religion, and nation over nation.

Societies orienting to the partnership system’s configuration also transcend familiar categories.

They can be technologically undeveloped foraging societies going back millennia, as shown by anthropologist Douglas Fry and others, or ancient technologically advanced “high civilizations” such as Minoan Crete, with its generally high living standard and no signs of warfare between the island’s city-states, where women played leading roles. They can also be modern societies such as Finland, Norway, and Sweden, which regularly lead world happiness reports because they have more “feminine” or caring policies, such as universal health care, accessible/high quality childcare, and generous paid parental leave. These are not socialist nations; they have a very healthy business sector. Nor is their greater orientation to partnership due to their relatively small, homogenous character; consider the many small, relatively homogeneous nations that are warlike, unequal, and do not have caring policies!

Partnership-oriented societies have the following three-fold configuration: First, both families and tribes or nations are more democratic and egalitarian. There are still parents, teachers, managers, and leaders, but they have hierarchies of actualization where accountability, respect, and benefits flow both ways, rather than just from the bottom up, and power is empowering, rather than disempowering as in hierarchies of domination.

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Second, the female and male forms of humanity are equally valued, and qualities such as nonviolence and care are valued in women, men, and social and economic policy.

Third, while there is some abuse and violence, these do not have to be built into institutions; they are not required to maintain rankings of domination.

A WHOLE-SYSTEMS STRATEGY CULTURAL TRANSFORMATION

FOR

Over the last centuries, the industrial revolution created systems disequilibrium, which we know from chaos theory and nonlinear dynamics makes systems transformation possible. So it is not coincidental that during this time a number of progressive social movements challenged entrenched traditions of domination – from the 18th century “rights of man” movement challenging the “divinely ordained” right of kings to rule, the 19th and 20th century abolitionist, civil rights, and anti-colonial movements challenging the “divinely ordained” right of a “superior” race to rule over “inferior” ones, and the feminist movement challenging the “divinely ordained” right of men to rule women and children in the “castles” of their homes, all the way to today’s environmental movement, challenging man’s once-hallowed conquest and domination of nature.

Yet this forward movement has not been linear. It has been fiercely resisted every inch of the way and punctuated by regressions to domination. A major reason for these regressions is that most progressive movements have primarily focused on dismantling the top of the MARCH 2024

domination pyramid: politics and economics as conventionally defined. By contrast, those pushing us back to strongman rule, violence, and in-group vs. outgroup scapegoating invest enormous resources in maintaining or reinstating domination in four interconnected cornerstones for either partnership- or domination-oriented systems.

These cornerstones are family and childhood relations (e.g., domination or would-bedomination regimes appropriate family, values, and morality); gender roles and relations (e.g., they demonize gender role fluidity), economics (e.g., they promote trickle-down economics and devalue caring, which in domination systems is coded “feminine”), and narratives and language (they justify top-down control, as in slogans like fathers are “masters of the house”).

For instance, Putin, a dictator who barbarically invaded Ukraine, reduced the legal penalty for family violence. So, in his Russia the consequences for hurting or killing a stranger exceed those for killing or hurting a family member. Why? He and other “strongmen” recognize the connection between an authoritarian, male-dominated, punitive family that uses violence for control and an authoritarian, male-dominated, violently punitive state.

In sum, those pushing us back globally pay particular attention to maintaining or reinstating traditions of domination in our family relations, gender relations, economics, and stories/language.

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Image source: Canva

SHIFT TO A PARTNERSHIP WORLD Building a better future requires both shortterm tactics and a unified longer-term strategy focusing on the four cornerstones of family/childhood, gender, economics, and story/language.

We must continue to work on the myriad of progressive goals that people and organizations are promoting in bits and pieces. We must continue working for a sustainable environment, against nuclear proliferations, for racial justice and against antisemitism and other in-group versus outgroup prejudices and violence we inherited from more rigid domination times.

However, we must also remember that our gains can be, and have been, cancelled from the top with the stroke of a pen. These regressions will continue unless we work together to build solid partnership foundations for the urgently needed MARCH 2024

paradigm shift from domination to partnership. This requires a whole-systems agenda.

We urgently need a more accurate narrative of our past, present, and the possibilities for our future that no longer marginalizes the majority of humanity – women and children – and takes into account what we today know about the vital importance of what happens in families and its connection to what happens in our family of nations.

That’s when we can complete the shift from a domination to a partnership world, counter regressions to domination worldwide, and build a more equitable, sustainable, and caring socio-economic system for ourselves, our children, and generations to come.

For more information see www.centerforpartnership.org, www.rianeeisler.com, and https://pubs.lib.umn.edu/index.php/ijps

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REFERENCES: Eisler, Riane and Fry, Douglas. Nurturing Our Humanity: How Domination and Partnership Shape Our Brains, Lives, and Future (Oxford University Press, 2019) Eisler, Riane. The Real Wealth of Nations: Creating a Caring Economics (Berrett-Kohler, 2007); Eisler, Riane. The Chalice and the Blade: Our History, Our Future. (Harper Collins, 1987, 2017).

Fry, Douglas, editor. War, Peace, and Human Nature: The Convergence of Evolutionary and Cultural Views.(Oxford University Press, 2013).

Hodder, Ian. “Women and Men at Catalhoyuk.” Scientific American, January, 2004: pp. 77- 83.

Madhusree Mukerjee, “Interview with Riane Eisler,” 2023. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-family-trauma-perpetuates-authoritariansocieties/.

Riane Eisler

Riane Eisler, JD, PhD (hon), is internationally known for her groundbreaking contributions as a systems scientist, futurist, attorney, and cultural historian. She is author of many books, including The Chalice and the Blade, now in its 57th US printing and 30 foreign editions and The Real Wealth of Nations, hailed by Nobel Peace Laureate Desmond Tutu as "a template for the better world we have been so urgently seeking." Her recent work, Nurturing Our Humanity: How Domination and Partnership Shape Our Brains, Lives, and Future, co-authored with anthropologist Douglas Fry (Oxford University Press, 2019), shows how to construct a more equitable, sustainable, and less violent world based on partnership rather than domination. She has received many honors, including the Nuclear Peace Leadership award (earlier received by the Dalai Lama), the Women's Leadership Pioneer Award, and the Charter for Compassion Humanitarian Award, and has addressed the UN General Assembly, the US State Department, many corporations, and keynotes conferences nationally and internationally.

Eisler is President of the Center for Partnership Systems, which provides practical applications of her work, and Editor in Chief of the online Interdisciplinary Journal of Partnership Studies published at the University of Minnesota. She has taught at many universities, written hundreds of articles and contributions to both scholarly and popular books, pioneered the application of human rights standards to women and children, and consults to businesses and governments on the partnership model introduced by her work. For more information, see www.rianeeisler.com and www.centerforpartnership.org

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IS COLLAPSE INEVITABLE?

by Richard Slaughter

By now even the sceptics, deniers and fossil fuel companies know that some form of global collapse is quite possibly just around the corner. A report from the Global Systems Institute in late 2023 confirmed the now undeniable fact that several major tipping points in the global system were about to be crossed.

Or, to put it another way: humanity was already well beyond what has been described as its safe operating space.

Yep. Time’s up folks. We’re all about to discover that homo sapiens is not at all the master of this small planet, if it ever was.

But hang on there. If this is factually correct, why bother to put one’s time and energy into futures-related work? Why not just “go for broke” and enjoy what’s left of the ride?

Two reasons might be, first, that what is meant by “collapse” is still not entirely clear and, second, knowing that the future is becoming ever more dangerous may help strengthen human motivation to “wake up” and actually do something about it.

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Human agency is a powerful force in its own right -- or it could be -- which is probably why Rebecca Solnit refers to it as “a sleeping giant.”

FIFTY YEARS COLLAPSE

OF

OVERSHOOT

AND

The notion that human civilisation has set itself up for a hazardous “overshoot and collapse” future is at least half a century old. It features prominently in the work of many futurists, including my own. From Recovering the Future (1988) to Deleting Dystopia (2022), and other related publications, this theme has never been far from my awareness.

Perhaps I was “fortunate” (if that’s the right word) in discovering Lewis Mumford’s masterwork The Pentagon of Power (1971) in the first year of its UK publication. Then being gifted with a first edition copy of The Limits to Growth (1972) the following year.

Living and working in Bermuda at the time, I found myself in the middle of a vast unplanned global experiment. The dilemmas of “growth” were already playing out on this once pristine 20-square-mile

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Stop growth? One might as well sprout wings and fly off into the sunset. Some of the early flak may have also been associated with the fact that using computers to build and run global models was new and untested. But the underlying problem was that reining in growth was simply unthinkable. Fifty years later many influential people and a disturbingly large number of powerful organisations are still resisting the core challenge identified by the Meadows team back in 1972. Namely that growth can’t continue for ever, and if humans can’t figure out how to do it themselves the cold laws of physics will do it for them (Higgs, 2014; Bardi U. & Periera,C 2022).

sub-tropical island some 1,000 Km (774 miles) south of New York City. The postwar years found this isolated fragment of British colonialism addicted to growth and the income it created. But, as with so many other places, it was also struggling to contain the accompanying pressures and dilemmas.

The notion that humanity might be subject to global limits with real consequences has tended to receive a frosty reception, or worse, whenever it appears. It was not, however, merely unpopular. It collided head-on with the underlying ideology and rationale of 20th Century politics and economics.

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FORESIGHT VERSUS SOCIAL EXPERIENCE If the dilemmas of growth had been taken seriously even as late as the 1990s, there would still have been a chance that “overshoot” futures could have been minimised, if not avoided entirely. It is, however, a testament to the power of human obstinacy, and the dominance of special interests, that such futures have remained broadly unacknowledged.

Now, however, after a year with the highest global temperatures in thousands of years, the repetitive disasters of climate change are steadily making standard responses ever more counterproductive.

To take but one example, estimates of the extent of expected sea level rises have risen from mere centimetres to well over a meter by the end of the century.

Governments, local councils, and property owners all around the world are finally catching on to the fact the most the existing infrastructure was designed in an earlier era according to what are now clearly obsolete assumptions. The notion that foresight offers superior and far less costly pathways into the future than the rigours of social experience, is slowly gaining ground.

I’ve always been intrigued at how different organisations and groups respond to the dilemmas created by growth in what is clearly a finite system and produced a summary/evaluation of this topic back in 2010. A sufficiently aware wealthy minority take such on dilemmas as a personal and professional challenge. Others, the majority, in fact, continue to exercise all the many options available to deny, avoid or repress what is happening right before their eyes. An endless supply of diverting MARCH 2024

options provided by the tech giants and global marketing industry have made this a compellingly attractive strategy for millions.

A few very wealthy individuals and organisations have exercised a still more perplexing option by funding efforts to undermine any serious responses.

As a professional futurist, I sometimes find simple metaphors helpful. For example, in a workshop context, I might ask a group to imagine that they are charged with taking a group of youngsters out into nature beyond the built environment for a couple of weeks.

Key questions soon arise about provisioning and care. For example, what do the organisers need to do to keep them safe?

Clearly, access to reliable maps (digital or otherwise) is essential.

We then ask: what hazards and dangers might be encountered and how would these be dealt with? You see where this is going. The point is that whatever maps are in use, some of the most vital questions relate to dangers and, by extension, strategies for avoiding or minimising them.

It’s obvious that no account, or ‘map’ of the near-term future, is worth a great deal if it’s unable to clearly identify such contingencies. Which is why I’ve always appreciated Bertrand de Jouvenel’s astute reminder that “the proof of improvidence is falling into the empire of necessity.”

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THE GLOBAL MEGA CRISIS Back in 2011 Michael Marien, Bill Halal and others drew attention to a number of serious inter-related issues that were beginning to loom large in their own highly credible views of the of the near-term future. They decided to organise a group session at a World Future Society conference in Toronto on the global “mega-crisis.”

While perhaps a little ambitious, their focus on the combined implications of global issues could hardly have been more timely or relevant. Marien, Halal, Canadian author Thomas Homer-Dixon, and I fronted up for a crowded session and a clearly sympathetic, appreciative audience.

The event was well organised and covered considerable ground in a fairly short time.

The recordings are still available online.

Prior to the meeting, the December 2011 issue of the Journal of Futures Studies published no less than 15 short articles on the theme. After the event, the organisers quite reasonably assumed that producing a book on the topic would help maintain momentum and broaden the audience.

But to no avail. Wider interest in the megacrisis remained problematic. No-one beyond the small world of Futures was interested, so the project died.

I was not entirely surprised, having had a similar experience with earlier works. For example, while The Biggest Wake-Up Call in History won a ‘Best of the Year’ award from the Association of Professional Futurists (APF), commercial publishers were resolute in their determined lack of interest (Slaughter, 2010).

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People at every level, in all professions and all states of life, have yet to acknowledge that, in order to steer toward more positive futures, we need to be paying attention.

Crucially, this includes putting in place highly trained people in purpose-designed institutional settings that would allow us to routinely scan our environment, our situation, our place in the global system.

The output of such work then needs to be made directly available to the national (and international) councils of the day.

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DIRTY TRICKS One of the main blockages to real progress on these issues can be summarised in two words: corporate ideology.

When something emerges that threatens its rather specific interests, it can respond rather like the human immune system and despatch an army of agents with one purpose: destroy the invaders. Such operations can be effective but, in a social context, there are obvious risks.

Further evidence has recently emerged from the Caltech archives proving beyond any doubt that as early as the mid-1950s “the fossil fuel industry had intimate involvement in the inception of modern climate science, along with its warnings of the severe harm climate change will wreak, only to then publicly deny this science for decades and fund ongoing efforts to delay action on the climate crisis.”

To see how this works in practice there are perhaps few better sources than Robert Manne’s illuminating essay on how, a decade ago, an array of corporate interests came together with the declared purpose of defeating climate science.

While covering a Heartland Institute conference in 2011, a New York Times reporter noted that it was “the most important denialist organisation in the US.” Moreover, the event was said to display a tangible “air of victory.”

Manne’s final comment says it all -- it was “a victory that subsequent generations cursing ours may look upon as perhaps the darkest in the history of humankind.”

One of the corporations behind this kind of “institutional denialism” was the oil giant Exxon whose CEO spared no effort not only in deceiving the public but to silence its own scientists by closing down an internal research division.

An article by Bill McKibben provides a succinct overview of this disgraceful episode while Jane Mayer reveals details of the huge sums of “dark money” that were expended. Both demonstrate very clearly just how deeply this particular, real-world conspiracy went.

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A BROADER, DEEPER CANVAS Over the years it’s become increasingly clear that common characteristics of the dirty tricks brigades of climate change deniers, like the evasions of here-and-now decision-makers, and those who blithely dismiss future threats, are not hard to identify. Self-interest, viewed as an expression of ego and pride, plays a huge role, particularly when it remains unexamined and unquestioned. In many cases it is accompanied by narrowmindedness, an aversion to high-quality information and a lack of interest in humanity’s future. Human characteristics such as these have major implications but are often overlooked in more conventional economic-, and technology-focused accounts.

Such characteristics are, however, neither invisible, nor set in stone.

E.F Schumacher wisely noted that problems cannot be understood on the same level upon which they’re first experienced. To appreciate how human attributes directly affect the shifting prospects for humanity requires something more than positive thinking or everyday psychology. It requires an open mind, a depth dimension, respect for quality evidence and an extended timeframe.

Overall, a broader, deeper canvas.

One of the secrets hidden in plain sight is that the entire human world is constructed by and for people. Moreover, every part of it needs to justify its place or, in other words, be legitimated. It’s a continuing process. This means that, in principle (if not always in practice) every aspect of our world can be revised, re-imagined and reconstituted in the light of changing circumstances.

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CRITICAL TO INTEGRAL, AND INTEGRALLY INFORMED FUTURES Critical approaches manifestly generated new insights and reinvigorated methods.

But, over time, what also became clear is that it omitted other highly significant features of the human world: the human and cultural interiors. It was only by paying more explicit and detailed attention to how individuals, societies and organisations, for example, construct and inhabit these inner worlds (through language, tradition etc) that we could begin to clarify why some corporate executives, political leaders and high-tech oligarchs acted as they did.

The tools and methods of integrally informed futures work are useful precisely because they shine new light on interior realities. They also give new life to older methods such as environmental scanning.

They help us to understand how values, worldviews, perspectives and states or stages of human development each have a role in producing the consequences we see around us. Climate denialism, the premature dismissal of “limits,” rigid adherence to the ideology of growth, and many other issues become much clearer when approached in this way.

The same methods helpfully illuminate some of the interior aspects of more humanly compelling futures. A concise summary covering the theory, vision and practice aspects of Integral Futures work can be found in this 2020 overview. Here are three brief examples that speak directly to issues arising in an overshoot and collapse world.

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1. Descent pathways

2. Interior human development

Back in 2014, Joshua Floyd and I edited a special issue of Foresight on the topic of descent pathways. The central idea was to suggest that instead of reaching a peak of human activity globally that destabilised the global system and sent it into a sudden overshoot or collapse mode, it was worth considering strategies whereby specific pathways could be identified that moderated the descent and improved the chances of less catastrophic outcomes. An introduction to the issue is available here.

An account of interior human factors involved in the denial of limits is here. The project may appear ambitious, but it sits well with many related initiatives that help to open out new options for a world greatly in need of them. Some related examples include those of “de-growth” (Cattaneo, et al, 2012; Alexander & Gleeson, 2019) and The Great Transition (Raskin, et al, 2002).

Toward the end of my book, The Biggest Wake-Up Call in History, I wanted to leave readers with a sense of qualified optimism.

One way to do this was to consider several exemplars, or outstanding individuals who had shown in their lives and work that it was and is possible to make headway during impossible times. The group shared a number of personal characteristics that I summarised in the following way. In each case: An exclusive focus on one or two reality domains had disappeared. Gone too was the focus on self and the need to diminish others.... Absent also was the reliance on limited value sets. Gone finally, was the drive for power, material wealth and domination. Instead, what emerged provided clear evidence of the personal and practical power of more encompassing values, post-conventional worldviews and, overall, broader views of reality.”

From this, three conclusions emerged: The seeds of many solutions appear to be grounded in the left-hand quadrant domains. That is, in enhanced human capacities, more encompassing worldviews and values that support world-centric outlooks.

One of the most powerful and significant shifts that, in principle is available to virtually anyone, is that from conventional thinking (taking perceived reality as more real and finished than it actually is) to post-conventional thinking (seeing things as constructed (i.e., more open and subject to revision and change).

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While low-energy, more local and selfsufficient, lifestyles are becoming default necessities, the viability of such arrangements depend very much on the developmental capacities of the individuals within them and the necessary social validation and support that they require.

It is therefore precisely these factors that need to be brought more clearly into focus and supported by purposeful mainstream social and institutional strategies (Slaughter, 2015).

3. Technology, Values and Worldviews It’s abundantly clear these days that the word or use of ”technology” is subject to interpretation. For example, a common default view pursued by powerful people and institutions more or less equates it with notions of neutrality and wide, continuing

utility. I argued strongly against this view in a recent Compass article in part because it misconstrues the critical role of human agency throughout.

Technology may not necessarily be regarded as good or bad but it always brings with it distinctive human and political attributes that, in turn, emerge from and articulate particular values and commitments within a given worldview.

Figure 1 suggests that in a context characterised by basic values (ego, envy, fear and aggression) technological development almost certainly leads to conflict scenarios and possibly extinction.

It also illustrates the idea that venturing consciously “up” through a hierarchy of value orientations demonstrates how such shifts serve to expand human options and socio-cultural possibilities.

Figure 1: Futures Imaging Matrix. It comes from RS (2010) The Biggest Wake Up Call in History, p. 168

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Also, in terms of worldviews, moving from ego-centric toward, social-, world-, or planet-centric levels of insight also opens up new worlds of meaning and capability.

The figure proposes a “sweet zone” for high technology implying civilisational renewal. Progress toward any such a sweet zone requires something we rarely see in our own conflict-ridden world: a balance between advanced technology and a corresponding set of advanced. high-level human attributes.

This article has, for example, implied that Western culture has proceeded for too long by overlooking half of reality (i.e. the human and social interiors), which has left huge gaps in what can be grasped, what projects can be attempted and what futures seem likely at any particular time.

SO, IS COLLAPSE INEVITABLE? If by “collapse” we mean the global system shuts down then – no, it won’t happen -because the system will continue to adjust to the impacts created by our species and, as has happened many times before, eventually reach a new dynamic equilibrium.

If by “collapse” we mean the sudden termination of human societies, again, I’d say this future is unlikely. Some form of human presence will continue, so long as global temperatures remain with a zone habitable to humans.

If by “collapse” we mean that some resources will run out, more species will become extinct and human societies will be battered and bruised by global changes beyond our control, my sense is -- yes, this is a very likely future. Most of the “heavy trends” do, in fact, point in this direction.

But “very likely” does not, by any means, mean inevitable. Part of the reason is that we are literally surrounded by resources that, for many reasons, we’ve either overlooked or declined to take seriously.

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So where are we headed? Currently we are clearly heading toward a high-tech dystopia, a damaged, denuded world overrun by non-human, digital devices that, as things stand, we may never fully understand or control. This is precisely where higher — order human capacities of the kind referred to here are most urgently required.

Once the interiors are factored back into our evolving picture of the world, we can see how out of balance things have been.

We notice how conventional taken-forgranted worldviews provided so few options beyond an arid business-as-usual.

Once we’ve identified the specific domains, values and worldviews from which the mega-crisis arose, everything changes. The paucity of view that led to depression, fatalism, avoidance and so on recedes into the past.

We realise that what any individual perceives depends upon the internal resources that he or she brings to the task.

Similarly, by understanding what this means in depth, we open up a truly vast arena of possibilities and real-world options.

An overshoot and collapse future is perhaps best understood as the consequence of an exhausted worldview and redundant values.

On the other hand, embracing a broader, deeper canvas provides access to human and social resources from which vibrant and humanly compelling futures can emerge.

But time is certainly short, and the sooner we get on with it, the better.

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REFERENCES: 1.Alexander, S. & Gleeson, B. (2019). Degrowth in the Suburbs. Melbourne: Palgrave Macmillan.

2.Bardi, U & Periera, C. (Eds) (2022). Limits and Beyond. Exapt Press.

3.Cattaneo, C. (et al) (2012).Policy, Democracy and Degrowth. Futures (special issue). August.

4.Higgs, K. (2014). Collision Course: Endless Growth on a Finite Planet. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.

5.Marien, M. & Halal, W. (eds) (2011) Symposium of The Global Mega-crisis. Journal of Futures Studies 16, 2.

6.Floyd, J. & Slaughter, R (Eds). (2014). Descent Pathways. Foresight 18. 6.

7.Meadows, D.et al (1972). The Limits to Growth.

New York: Universe Books.

8.Mumford. L. (1971). The Pentagon of Power.

London: Secker & Warburg.

9.Raskin, P. (et al) (2002) The Great Transition. The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead. Boston: Stockholm Environment Instiitute.

10.Slaughter, R. (2022). Deleting Dystopia.

Toowoomba: University of Southern Queensland.

11.Slaughter, R. (2015). Beyond the global emergency: Integral Futures and the search for clarity. World Future Review 7 (2-3) 239-252.

12.Slaughter, R. (2010). The Biggest Wake-Up Call in History. Brisbane: Foresight International.

13.Slaughter, R. (2010). Evaluating ‘overshoot and collapse’ futures. World Future Review, 2, 4, AugSep. 14.Slaughter, R. (1988).Recovering the Future.

Melbourne, Grad School of Environmental Sciences.

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Richard A. Slaughter Richard A. Slaughter completed his Ph.D. in Futures Studies at Lancaster University in 1982. He later became internationally recognized as a futurist / foresight practitioner, author, editor, teacher and innovator.

During the early 2000s he was Foundation Professor of Foresight at Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne. He currently works out of Foresight International, Brisbane, Australia and can be reached at: foresightinternational.com.au.

Readers may like to hear two episodes of FuturePod (113 & 116) on the skewed narratives of affluent nations and avoiding a Digital Dystopia, at futurepod.org. His recent book, Deleting Dystopia, can be downloaded from: https://usq.pressbooks.pub/delet ingdystopia/

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EMBRACING THE DECLINE AND COLLAPSE IMAGES

By Christopher Jones

“The End is Near” is a cartoon meme from The New Yorker magazine and a byline for dozens of recent mass market books. But doom and gloom and Collapse futures are anathema to some futurists. One futures consultancy famously forbade the use of client scenarios based on Decline and Collapse. Are Collapse futures all bad, simply bad practice, or are they something else?

A case can be made that Decline and Collapse images of the future are archetypal, are a common element of many cultures across the planet and time, and reflect a cautionary impulse in individuals and society.

They should, therefore, be respected and acknowledged as part of the fabric of the evolving human story.

We need to embrace Collapse as an archetype and tool for futures thinking and research -- it cannot and should not be ignored.

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ONE OF MANY ALTERNATIVE IMAGES OF THE FUTURE Collapse is only one of many dominant alternative images of the future. This analysis is based on the work of futurist Jim Dator who argued that: the future is largely determined by the images of the future in our heads (Polak), and there are several alternative futures, as reflected in literature, film, and the Internet.

Dator also made a case that the dominant future image -- Business-as-Usual or Continued Growth -- could be transformed by the coming tsunamis of global change into any of the other alternative futures, which in turn, over time, could evolve into any of the other archetypes.

Fred Polakʻs classic book, Image of the Future, explored historical images of the future.

His analysis focused on eschatological and utopian beliefs, the images in the past of lifeʻs immanent (Heaven/Hell on Earth) vs. transcendent dimensions, and the locus of human agency. Written some sixty years ago, Polak was concerned about a coming collapse in societal meaning/essential control. He was worried about the self-fulfilling prophesies of negative eschatology. But he did not go as far as Dator to assess emergent images in the post-WWII era or to explain why the archetypes seem persistent in the modern era. Futurist Wendy Schultz recently proposed that images of the future exhibit emergent complexity behavior – strange attractors, if you will. It raises the question of whether these images are either psychologically or sociologically (or both) collective unconscious archetypes as Carl Jung and Joseph Campbell describe.

For example, one of the mainstay images is the Disciplined Society, not hard to imagine given the global spread of authoritarianism.

The image of Transformation is hardly neglected, it is even entrenched in the foresight field itself. There are even lines being drawn between posthumanists, transhumanists, and advocates of spiritual or global consciousness Transformation. Decline and Collapse have been memes in science fiction since early in the 20th century and box office gold for decades. The Dator Four Futures have been used widely in the futures literature -- see Smartʻs mapping of the Dator futures to classic growth curves.

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DOOM MONGERING AND SCARE TACTICS It seems obvious that Collapse imagery has some basis in our hopes and fears, and widespread evidence of schadenfreude. The COVID pandemic lockdown was the impetus for internet doom-scrolling and there are post-pandemic real estate doom loops -hollowing out of commercial and banking centers. For example, office building prices in the United States have plunged 35% since 2020, according to some estimates. Banks with high exposure to office debt could also be in trouble, with around $600 billion in office building debt in late 2023.

It is important to acknowledge the dangers of doom mongering and using scare tactics.

Focusing on doom and gloom overlooks potential positive transitions, innovations, or solutions to wicked problems. Constant pessimism can lead to fear, anxiety, and hopelessness that could hinder constructive versions of a better future. It could be desensitizing as well. The last thing we want is for people to become indifferent, skeptical, or end up in a chicken-little situation where warnings are not heeded because of the drum beat of negativity.

Focusing on doom and gloom could serve as incentive for inaction — if we have no agency, why not just “party ʻtill the end?” We need more visions of a better society and work to realize them. Keeping all of that in mind, used in moderation however, Collapse imagery has it’s place.

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Image source: Canva

COLLAPSE LITERATURE There is a sizable and growing academic and scholarly literature on Collapse futures images and existential threats. Futurist Roberto Vacca explored the possibility of civilization grinding to a halt after a traffic jam in The Coming Dark Age. Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies addressed the limits to our ability to manage complexity, particularly bureaucratic marginal inefficiencies.

The potential to exceed our society’s ability to manage complexity could reach a tipping point. Jared Diamond’s best-selling Collapse analyzed environmental problems, resource depletion, climate change, hostile neighbors, loss of trade, and the societal responses to growth and stagnation. His emphasis on environmental stressors and social mismanagement leading to civilization collapse had powerful effect on the public Collapse discourse.

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Bruce Tonnʻs Anticipation, Sustainability, Futures and Human Extinction set a highwater mark for a scholarly futures approach to existential risk, the long-term chances for humanityʻs survival, human futures, and hopes and fears about longterm futures. His section on the dangers of relatively frequent coronal mass ejections and solar flares was alarming.

The philosophy of Longtermism that adocates for growth, human immortality, and space migration feeds a Transformation image of the future also seen in science fiction and popular in Silicon Valley. But even the most strident voices promoting this image acknowledge that potential existential threats are real.

William MacAskill in his book, What We Owe the Future, champions high technology, AI, space, and economic growth. At the same time, he also acknowledges the risks of both stagnation and Collapse. Those topics and some of the existential risks behind them, such as thermonuclear war, worry him.

James Lovelock’s Gaia Theory argues that human meddling with the composition of the atmosphere will trigger a new thermodynamic equilibrium. If the Earth were to return to conditions of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, 55 million years ago, the Earth’s average temperature will be 6-8° C or more above the preindustrial background. Climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues argued recently that a 10° C increase may be already baked in given trends in CO2 and other greenhouse gases already released into the atmosphere. Only polar regions would be habitable.

In Limits to Growth, Donella Meadows et al. Is based on standard runs of the computer world model, forecast population dieback after 2050. Retrospectives and modeling based on recent data show that the overshoot may be drawing near.

Macrohistorians Spengler, Khaldun, Comte, Toynbee, Sarkar, and others (see Galtung and Inayatullah) have posited that time/civilization is cyclical and the future will .

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repeat past patterns, including decline, Collapse, and rebirth. Some cultures have strong and persistent mythology and escatology of end times. It is also worth recalling that colonization was a catastrophe for populations across the planet and that indigenous peoples have experienced Collapse of their societies for 500+ years.

There is a large volume of popular literature warning of Collapse. David Wallace-Wellsʻ The Uninhabitable Earth posited that Collapse will come in cascades. There have been a series of existential threat conferences at Stanford University and numerous organizations, such as the Lifeboat Foundation, whose work is devoted to understanding and solving existential threats.

And there is a litany of existential threats, such as: rapid climate change, nuclear war, pandemics, biological/chemical terrorism, political instability, economic collapse, cyber war, resource depletion, sentient AI, just to mention a few. Such threats could be precipitated by black swan events, such as the Thwaits/Pine Island glacier collapse, coronal mass ejections (CME), or a Kessler event (portrayed in the movie Gravity).

Image source: Amazon.ca

Stages of collapse might be incremental:

Financial collapse Social collapse

Commercial collapse

Political collapse

Cultural collapse

Civilizational collapse

Human extinction But it could be rapid, cascading, or punctuated.

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Futures approaches such as causal layered analysis, developed by Sohail Inayatullah, have been useful to explore the social causes that might precipitate a societal Collapse. It also is important to consider the deep underlying cultural and narratives that support apocalyptic or millennialist thinking and inaction. Myths and worldview are critical to understand the role that they play in the face of Armageddon. Collapse images capture an aspect of human psyche, fear, anxiety, and trepidation about uncertainty. We certainly can't ignore the Western Pandora and Prometheus myths and similar cautionary stories in other cultures.

NEW BEGINNINGS? A balanced, integrated use of the Collapse image can bring to the foreground the fears and threats that we need to face honestly. Examples of the use of doom and gloom used constructively and creatively can be seen in the Polak game (Hayward and Candy) and Heinonen et al.ʻs Causal layered analysis game on neo-carbon energy scenarios. Finland is a leading example of countries that have taken seriously the need to anticipate worst case futures in order to prepare for disasters, small and large. Increased natural and technological disasters suggest that is wise.

Collapse is not the only outcome of human civilization but one that seems increasingly approriate to consider as we envision and plan the futures that we desire. We may not get the future that we want, so it behooves us to consider Collapse and, as Dator suggests, begin imagining New Beginnings, too.

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Christopher B Jones Christopher B Jones, PhD., is the Executive Director of the Transnormal Institute (Santa Fe, New Mexico); Senior Fellow, the Centre for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies (London, UK); and, faculty of DMS Futures Academy (Washington, DC). He served as faculty in the graduate School of Public Policy and Administration, Walden University, and has taught in the state systems of higher education in Hawaii, Oregon, Texas, and Colorado in the USA. His background is in public policy, political science, and futures studies. Jones’ research interests include postnormal times policy analysis, images of the future, sea level rise, climate change, social movements, high technology, space development, telecommunications, the Pacific Islands, spirituality, the Gaia theory, global consciousness, and sustainable and resilient communities. His methodological interests are primarily qualitative and futuresoriented, including brainstorming and creativity, emerging issues analysis, scenario building, visioning, and strategic planning. He is former Secretary-General (2001-2005) and lifetime Fellow of the World Futures Studies Federation, a member of the Association of Professional Futurists, and editorial board member of the journal Futures.

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GETTING TO GRIPS WITH COLLAPSE

By Andrew Curry

In the mid-2000s, I worked on a scenarios project for a British government department. We did extensive drivers analysis, developed systems maps, and identified critical uncertainties. One of the scenarios that emerged from this process was a collapse scenario. Word came from the client that they didn’t find this helpful. Eventually, after some negotiation, the collapse scenario was reinstated. These days, in contrast, a set of scenarios that didn’t include a collapse scenario would be questioned.

There are reasons for this. Since the mid-2000s, we have seen the financial crisis of 2008, in which the global banking system almost stopped working, and the pandemic of 2020-21, when, similarly, collapse was averted only by aggressive state action. In the background, between these two crises has been the insistent drumbeat of IPCC reports on both climate change and biodiversity.

The idea of collapse has become normalised.

One of the outcomes of this is a large interdisciplinary literature. Collapse is a subject that is of interest to archaeologists, historians, anthropologists, environmentalists, philosophers, literary critics, narratologists, system theorists, and others, as well as to futurists. In a systemic bibliographic search for his literature review, Brozovic (2022) found 361 articles and 76 books.

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It is possible to get overwhelmed by all of this. In this article, I will try to reflect the themes that will be of most value to futurists, while not over-simplifying the story. Nonetheless, some omissions are inevitable in the space available here.

What we mean by ‘collapse’ is more problematic. In the futures literature, it is one of the four archetype scenarios identified by the Hawai’i Research Center for Futures Studies from a meta-review of American scenarios projects in the later 1970s and the early 1980s. The others are Growth, Discipline, and Transformation.

Jim Dator (2009) summarised the Collapse archetype in this way: [A] second alternative future is ‘Collapse’ from some cause or another…and either to extinction or to a ‘lower’ stage of ‘development’ than it currently is... It should be emphasized here that the ‘collapse’ future is not and should not be portrayed as a ‘worse case scenario’.

Many people welcome the end of the ‘economic rat race’ and yearn for a simpler lifestyle.”

But as Middleton (2017) observes, there is a wide divergence of views on the speed of a collapse, or its distinguishing features, or its scale. According to the literature, collapse can happen at any scale, from villages to populations. It can happen at different speeds: the Mayan collapse, widely referenced in the literature, unfolded over 200-300 years between the 7th and 9th centuries. Nor is it clear why some collapse scenarios end in collapse and others do not.

There is less disagreement about patterns of collapse. They have familiar systemic shapes (Bardi 2020). He calls the first of these a ‘Hubbert curve,’ a familiar bell curve; the second is a ‘Seneca curve,’ in which the decline from the peak is vertiginous[2]; the third is the ‘Lotke-Volterra’ curve, in which collapse is followed by recovery.

The one area of significant agreement is that collapse is never mono-causal: it is always a complex process involving the interplay of multiple factors. All the same, there are competing theories about collapse which can be thought of as having different centres of gravity and involve at their heart different theories of change.

There is little agreement on what constitutes collapse. In 2008, Jørgen Randers, who was one of the Limits to Growth authors, tried to quantify a global collapse: Rather arbitrarily I define a collapse as global if it affects at least 1 billion people, who lose at least 50% of something they hold dear, within a period of 20 years.”[1]

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THEORIES OF COLLAPSE Reviewing the futures and related literature, there are effectively four broad theories about collapse. These are: Collapse as a reduction in system complexity; Collapse as population overshoot and environmental failure; Collapse as failure of political economy, through extraction and status competition; Collapse as a necessary step on the way to regeneration and renewal.

costs. Later on, this is not the case. To use the language of economics, complexity starts to produce diminishing marginal returns, and eventually the “returns to greater complexity” become negative.

Following Tainter, G.G. Brunk argues that “human systems are self-organising and societies tend to evolve toward the maximum level of complexity possible under current technological constraints” (Brozovic, 2022). One of the implications of this is that technological responses to signs of collapse are rarely successful, precisely because they increase complexity. They may delay collapse, but when collapse comes it will be more abrupt.

Of these, Joseph Tainter’s complexity theory is the most quoted; overshoot and collapse the most contested; extraction the most misunderstood; and regeneration the most recent and typically the most overlooked.

COMPLEXITY Tainter’s (1988) theory about the collapse of complex societies is the most widely referenced in the literature. Tainter, an archaeologist, developed his theory from examining a wide range of collapses in the archeological record.

Figure 1: Diminishing returns to complexity.

Source: Bardi, Falsini, and Perissi, 2018. Redrawn from The Collapse of Complex Societies.

His model can be summarised as being about the benefits and costs of complexity.

Societies tend to respond to problems by increasing their level of complexity. For example, they might respond to water shortages, as the Romans did, by building irrigation systems. Initially, there are increasing returns to complexity — the rewards to society are greater than the

Given that complexity is usually associated with more complex social systems — Tainter uses the word ‘bureaucracy’ — he argues that collapse is at its core a failure of political and social institutions, and he defines collapse as being “a political process.” It is worth noting that if his idea of diminishing marginal returns is correct, then we will see the signs of potential

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collapse some way off, provided we are looking in the right place.

Tainter’s book has been critiqued as being primarily qualitative, and for cherry-picking his extended case studies to match his thesis. However, Ugo Bardi and colleagues successfully modelled Tainter’s framework, using a system dynamics model that connected ‘resources,’ ‘the economy,’ ‘bureaucracy,’ and ‘pollution,’ and found that the system behaved in ways that were comparable with Tainter’s hypothesis.

agricultural sector, which has become dependent on industrial inputs such as fertiliser, and agricultural production per head starts to fall. Food shortages and related health issues then lead to increasing death rates. In their 1992 update, Beyond the Limits, they concluded that humans had, unlike in 1972, overshot the limits of Earth’s capacity to support us.

ENVIRONMENT The notion of collapse as an environmental process of ‘overshoot and collapse’ is at the heart of Limits to Growth, published in 1972 (Meadows et al.) and updated in 1992 and in 2005. The book and the underlying systems dynamics model were misunderstood at the time, sometimes willfully, sometimes not. While the book also included multiple scenarios that did not involve environmental overshoot and collapse, the base case, built on historic data, shows global industrial production per capita declining from the 2020s and global population declining from the 2030s.

The mechanism by which this happens — somewhat simplified — is that over time the cost of extracting non-renewable resources rises, and so capital is diverted from both industrial production, and industrial output per head starts to fall.[3] “Persistent pollution” (a catch-all for the external environmental costs of production, including carbon emissions) is also increasing and needs to be managed.

These issues feed through into the

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World3 Model Standard Run as shown in The Limits to Growth Source: By YaguraStation - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php? curid=92084922

Graham Turner and Gaya Herrington have since found separately that actual outcomes have tracked the Limits to Growth base case.

Herrington (2020) concluded that the outcome data also fitted one other, more sustainable, Limits scenario, in which there was decline but not collapse, but that the window to continue on that pathway was closing quickly.

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Jared Diamond’s (2005) influential book Collapse also takes an environmental view of collapse, exploring it through case studies, some historic, some modern. He proposes a five-factor model of collapse: environmental damage; climate change; hostile neighbours; (less) friendly trade partners; and societal response to environmental problems.

Diamond’s book includes examples of resilient societies that have avoided collapse, and his model offers clues about routes to resilience. Diamond’s work has its critics. One of the features of writing about collapse is that every generation reflects its own concerns, and Diamond’s focus on environmental factors seems to align with this. But there isn’t, as Diamond acknowledges, a single example where environmental issues have been the sole cause of collapse. It is, of course, possible that this time is different. A core principle of modernity, following Martin Albrow, is that it must always expand, but with globalisation it has reached saturation point.

Image source: Amazon.ca

EXTRACTION Peter Turchin’s (2009) ‘secular cycles’ model has some distinctive features. It is based on a model of social change that connects general living standards with elite behaviour and the accumulation of wealth. The cycles are long — 100 to 300 years, depending on how the elites replace themselves. It is not a model of collapse, but it can lead to collapse, and in particular, to civil war. In summaries of the literature his work is referenced but not well understood.

Turchin’s model of collapse is, in effect, about political economy. In his most recent book, End Times (2023), he argues that there are four structural drivers of instability: MARCH 2024

popular immiseration leading to mass mobilization potential; elite overproduction resulting in intraelite conflict; failing fiscal health and weakened legitimacy of the state; and geopolitical factors.” (p. 30) Of these, the most reliable predictor of crisis is intra-elite competition. The underlying dynamic of the model is that immiseration is caused by a downward shift in the balance between returns to wages compared to the returns to land and capital.

There are multiple ways in which this can happen.

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In response to their increased wealth, competition for elite status increases, and becomes more expensive.[4] (In the contemporary United States, Turchin points to the cost of running for political office and the expense of an elite university education.)

This extractive process can go on for a long time provided the elite maintain control of the state. Turchin, whose work draws on Goldstone’s Structural-Demographics framework, models these tensions mathematically and projects them forwards.

Thomas Homer-Dixon (2006) found that English does not have a word to describe this renewal process, and invented a neologism, catagenesis, from the Greek words for ‘down’ and ‘birth’. Bardi (2020) writes that “It is the way the Universe works: collapse is not a bug, it is a feature.”

Bardi points to four significant collapses in Europe across 2,500 years of history, all of which were followed by rapid recoveries. As he explains:

REGENERATION The fourth model argues that collapse is not usually an ending. Instead, it is a normal feature of the way in which complex systems work. This view draws on the panarchy model developed by C.S. Holling and Lance Gunderson, which emerged from the field of ecology. The familiar panarchy figure of eight diagram (below) sees systems move through four unequal phases: growth (‘conservation’); breakdown (‘release’); reorganisation; and renewal (‘exploitation’). It is, though, worth noting the tail at the bottom left: systems can collapse because they fail to renew themselves.

The reasons for the rebound are reasonably clear; depopulation frees resources that can be exploited for a new phase of rapid growth.” (p. 225) Resilience can be thought of as the capacity in a society to absorb shocks and reorganise in response to them while still functioning. It can be the difference between a decline, or a soft landing, and a collapse, or a hard landing. One of the findings in the literature is that at a local level communities tend to hold together in the face of collapse. As Rebecca Solnit writes in her book A Paradise Built In Hell:

Figure 2: The ‘Panarchy’ Cycle Source: The Resilience Alliance. (Creative Commons licence CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.)

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In the wake of an earthquake, a bombing, or a major storm, most people are altruistic, urgently engaged in caring for themselves and those around them, strangers and neighbors as well as friends and loved ones… Decades of meticulous sociological research on behavior in disasters, from the bombings of World War II to floods, tornadoes, earthquakes, and storms across the continent and around the world, have demonstrated this.” (p. 2)

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METAPHORS The very language of ‘collapse’ implies a worldview. It is embedded in notions of ‘growth,‘ progress,’ and ‘civilisation.’

Collapse, on this reading, is the shadow side of the Enlightenment.

The Dark Mountain Project challenged some of these ideas in its 2009 ‘Uncivilisation’ manifesto. The manifesto is about the role of the idea of ‘civilisation’ in leading the planet, in their words, “into the age of ecocide:” The last taboo is the myth of civilisation. It is built upon the stories we have constructed about our genius, our indestructibility, our manifest destiny as a chosen species… It has led the human race to achieve what it has achieved; and has led the planet into the age of ecocide. The two are intimately linked.”

One of the manifesto co-authors, Dougald Hine, evolved this idea in his book At Work in the Ruins (2023): the clue is in the title. The idea of ‘civilisation,’ and the idea of modernity, are inseparably entwined: The background roar of loss runs through the lives of all of us: a layered loss that goes beyond the ordinary rhythms of comings and goings, that marks us as living in a time of endings. Modernity thrives on loss and cannot name it, deferring the consequences as long as possible.” (pp. 196-7)

Figure 3: Google Ngram of the word ‘collapse’ from 1775 to 2019.

Source: Google Ngram/ Andrew Curry

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WHAT IS TO BE DONE? It would be better if collapses didn’t happen at all; populations can live within limits, after all. Jared Diamond’s book Collapse includes examples of these, such as the small Pacific Island of Tikopia, and on New Guinea. In the collapse literature, there is no shortage of explanations as to why societies do not respond when they see signs of collapse. Homer-Dixon (2006) says, “First, we deny our problems, and then we reluctantly try to manage them.”

Johnson (in Brozovic, 2022) blames “social hubris,”, which causes “people to ignore evidence and prevent proactive action.”

Tainter and colleagues, quoted by HomerDixon, put this more starkly: People will rarely acknowledge that our accustomed way of life is unsustainable except in the face of prolonged, devastating failure.” (p.

268)

My own view, having spent some time with the literature, is that some form of decline is certainly coming. None of the numbers, nor any of the technologies, add up to anything else. Our choice as people, and as societies, is whether this is a collapse or a managed decline, a hard crash or a softer landing.

Our role as futurists is to have the honesty to face up to this, and to do what we can, with what we have, wherever we are. ______________________________________________ FOOTNOTES:

The nature of systemic behaviour makes it harder to deal with problems. Systems have their own momentum and there are delays in feedback, as Richard Slaughter points out. Managing this, he says, requires longterm social foresight. In the face of this, Servigne and Stevens (2020) propose a new domain of study: ‘Collapsology,’ or “the transdisciplinary study of the collapse of our industrial civilization.” This would involve both scientific study and action research through “participating in initiatives that are already situated in the world after the catastrophe.” (Their italics).

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Because: we already know what we need to know about collapse. It is an action problem, not a research problem. We know, for example, that increasing resilience requires an increase in capacity, including problem-solving capacity. More egalitarian societies seem to be better at living within limits. But whichever theory of collapse you tend towards, all of them reduce capacity.

1. Russian GDP per capital fell by 50% between 1989 and 1998.

2. “Increases are of sluggish growth but the way to ruin is rapid.” Seneca, Letters to Lucilius, quoted by Bardi.

3. This account is adapted from Limits to Growth: The 30-year update, pp. 167-171.

4. Ian Christie has pointed out to me that Girard’s idea of ‘mimetic desire’ is also an important part of this process.

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SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY: Ugo Bardi (2020). Before the Collapse. Springer Nature Switzerland.

Danielo Brozovic (2022). ‘Societal Collapse: A Literature Review’. Futures, Vol 145.

Jim Dator (2009). Alternative Futures at the Manoa School. Journal of Futures Studies. 14(2): 1–18.

Jared Diamond (2005). Collapse. London: Allen Lane.

Gaya Herrington (2020). ‘Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data’.

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2020;1–13. DOI: 10.1111/jiec.13084 Dougald Hine (2023). At Work in the Ruins. White River Junction VT: Chelsea Green.

Thomas Homer-Dixon (2006). The Upside of Down.

London: Souvenir.

Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William Behrens (1972). The Limits to Growth. New York: Universe. Downloadable at dartmouth.edu.

Donella Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows (2005). Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. London: Earthscan.

Andrew Curry Andrew Curry is a futurist based in London, where he works as Director of Futures for SOIF, the School of International Futures.

He blogs at The Next Wave (https://thenextwavefutures.wor dpress.com) and publishes a regular newsletter, Just Two Things, on Substack. He is a former editor of Compass.

Guy Middleton (2017). Understanding Complexity.

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Paul Servigne and Raphael Stevens (2020). How Everything Can Collapse. Cambridge: Polity.

Joseph A. Tainter (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Peter Turchin (2023). End Times. New York: Penguin.

Peter Turchin and Sergei Nefedov (2009). Secular Cycles. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

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FRACTURED BACKBONES LEAD TO COLLAPSE

By Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland

Note to the reader: This article, building on the work we are doing to write a new book, introduces the concept of Backbones. We needed a way to uncover what was causing the collapse of institutions and agreements that we observed. A Backbone is an agreed set of rules which are shared, embody mutual trust, and support the way that things work.By making the definition explicit, we found a way to explore what to do about it.

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WHAT IS A BACKBONE? Societies develop Backbones to enable them to work well and to be effective.

Backbones can be explicit – as in rule of law, or implicit – “the way we do things around here.”Backbones cover many aspects of life such as financial services, governance, and international (technical and professional) standards and regulations. ‘Hard’ Backbones are physical infrastructure; here ‘soft’ Backbones are explored.

As we (the authors) discussed the concept of the “Backbone” with our network, we realised that most are based upon an agreed Rule of Law.[1] The Rule of Law (as understood in the West) consists of four components: [2] Equality under the law Transparency of law An independent judiciary An accessible legal remedy In “Plan on Building the Rule of Law in China (2020–2025),” the leadership in Beijing has set out its vision for a coherent legal system. The aim is to use the law to make the state more efficient and to reduce the arbitrariness of how the law is applied for the majority of the population.

The Rule of Law in China rejects an independent judiciary and the principle of separation of powers as “erroneous Western thought.”[3]

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The Rule of Law can be seen as the foundation of other rights, and, without rights, little works effectively and consistently. For example, without the Rule of Law: There is no contract system, There are no financial services, and There is no intellectual property (which would obstruct wealth creation).

The Rule of Law is not always observed[4] for instance, some elites and countries are seen to flout the law globally.[5] Individual Backbones are designed for a set of circumstances. And circumstances change. With time, systems of governance, trade, standards - Backbones - may become unfit for purpose. They can decay through lack of maintenance. They may become irrelevant, challenged by new conditions.

When Backbones fracture, it means that governments may not be able to respond to a range of areas in which an effective response is needed.[6] While local Backbones are essential to quality of life, we are more concerned about the threat arising from the fracture of the international Backbones, which have allowed societies to collaborate over the past decades. International Backbones must be explicit if they are to be effective.

Working across cultures and languages means that you can’t rely on assumptions about implicit shared understanding. One of the challenges people face is to maintain and evolve their Backbones -- or replace them with others -- in a way that allows societies with different cultures to work successfully and effectively together, to meet existential challenges.

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International Backbones offer varying level of effectiveness, largely due to how fractured they have become. Some examples of international Backbones include: UN and other international organisations that were formed after WWII (e.g. World Trade Organisation, IMF, World Bank, ADB).

Currency exchange platforms.

ISO standards for technology e.g. engineering components, telecommunications systems, manufactured components.

Science and Technology Co-operation Agreement between the US and China (STA). [7] WHY ARE INTERNATIONAL BACKBONES IN DANGER OF FRACTURING? While the United Nations continues to shape a large part of international interaction, today there are two key areas of resistance lessening its effectiveness.

to losing the support of the Majority World.

The IMF and World Bank are struggling to simultaneously tackle pandemic-induced deprivation and escalating climate change triggered needs.[10] Meanwhile, the power of corporations has been increasing at the expense of nation states.[11] This has come about partially through the disruptive effect of information and communications technology.

The internet is another example of an international Backbone. It is made up of “hard” Backbones (the physical equipment) and “soft” Backbones (the protocols needed to make it work). It is based on accepted rules and definitions across many different suppliers, operating in many different locations and countries: international standards are Backbones. A fractured internet Backbone could cripple millions of users - countries, financial systems, transportation systems - similar to the blocking of the Suez Canal in 2023.[12] MITIGATING FRACTURED BACKBONES

One is the emergence of countries in the Majority[8] World challenging its implementation of the liberal order. The second is far-right groups that have been gaining greater traction. For instance, they have profoundly changed negotiations on the Global Compact for Migration in the United Nations (UN).[9]

Mitigating fractured Backbones is the best way to address the existential threats of global heating, collapse of global health systems, and breakdown of international relations. Threats turn into events – which may morph into a crisis. The existence of a fitfor-purpose Backbone can facilitate the evolution of the crisis into a manageable emergency. Without planning -- and without Backbones to inform actions -- the event can slide into disaster.[13]

The world is emerging into a newly multipolar system where differing worldviews and rules of law co-exist. The UN is one of the Backbones widely accepted over the past decades, which is now fracturing due

International Backbones of the post WWII-era made assumptions about common aims, such as methods to decrease poverty[14].

Some of the aims are captured in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).[15]

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Many of these aims are shared across cultures. However, now there is a general understanding that methods will differ across different cultures and societies, and that the world is multi-polar.

GLIMPSES OF CHANGE In this multi-polar world, there are some leverage points. For instance: Evolving international bodies to recognise the Majority World and their problems.

Evolving international consortia to deal with specific problems, like IPCC, NATO. Working on problems together is likely to help to rebuild trust and encourage updating and evolving Backbones. Below are some examples of changes we observe today: NATO currently has 31 members and is an example of a Backbone that is being maintained, just about to celebrate its 75th anniversary. “.. in terms of scope and depth of cooperation as well as longevity, NATO has no parallel anywhere.”[16] It has survived the collapse of the Soviet Union and the post-Cold War era by adjusting to the environment and system around it by taking on other security challenges such as terrorism and piracy, and engaging in out-of-area operations as well as non-war operations.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is an independent judicial institution that has the authority to prosecute individuals for the most serious crimes of international concern, such as MARCH 2024

genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and aggression. It has shown its teeth in issuing an arrest warrant for Putin.[17] The new CEO of the World Bank, Ajay Banga, wants to “widen the bank’s current mandate, which is based around poverty alleviation and shared prosperity, to tackle wider problems such as climate, food insecurity and pandemics.”[18] To do this he is enlisting private investors, initially via a 15-strong CEO committee.

The resilience of digital Backbones has been the subject of concern recently, with the UK’s National Preparedness Commission’s report[19] highlighting the growing importance of software in the economy and society, and the lack of awareness of its fragility.

The UK Government is addressing fractured Backbones by introducing “new structures at the heart of the UK Government to focus on resilience and ensure decisions are made with an eye on the challenges we might face. The new Resilience Directorate in the Cabinet Office will drive the implementation of the measures set out in this framework and develop our ongoing resilience programme. This will include building on the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) to consider the chronic vulnerabilities and challenges that arise from the geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts, systemic competition, rapid technological change, and transnational challenges such as climate change, health risks and state threats that define contemporary crises.”[20]

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CHANGING TIMES BACKBONES

CALL

FOR

NEW

In conducting research for our upcoming book, we developed an understanding of what Backbones are, how important they are, and the need for them to evolve over time. When they are not well maintained and updated to be fit-for-purpose, they can fracture and lead to collapse. The collapse of one Backbone can lead to the collapse of other Backbones.

Most Backbones are based on the Rule of Law. They are manifestations of trust between parties. If people hold to them, they can engender and build trust. We observe that many Backbones seem to be decaying and fracturing, especially when people pay lip service to them and then flout the rules themselves.

There is a need arising -- as systems and technology changes -- for new Backbones to be developed where they don’t exist.

Technology evolves faster than regulation (a part of Backbones). It may be useful to build upon effective Backbones designed for related areas.

Developing this concept of Backbones has enabled us (the authors) to have many meaningful conversations about the collapse of institutions, international cooperation and understanding.

Understanding how Backbones are failing, enables people to work on evolving and/or developing new, fit-for-purpose and effective Backbones.

Note to the reader: Patricia Lustig and Gill Ringland’s new book, Fractured Backbones: Future Proofing Decision Making in a Time of Systemic Failures (working title), is scheduled to be published later this year.

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REFERENCES: 1.There are some implicit Backbones that do not depend on law, for instance polite behaviour. Polite behaviour is an implicit understanding between people. It will differ between cultures. Cooperation works better when the parties are polite to each other.

2.https://www.lexisnexis.co.uk/blog/future-oflaw/what-is-the-rule-of-law 3.https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2021C28/ 4.“The Rule of Law is in more trouble than democracy,” Financial Times, 31 August 2023.

5. Moneyland: Why Thieves And Crooks Now Rule The World And How To Take It Back by Bullough, O. Profile books, 2018.

6.Ferguson, N. Doom: the politics of catastrophe.

Allen Lane, 2021.

7.https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF 12510? __cf_chl_tk=Hb7eW8NHGR.Ic70MVg9YskojqsjOFGo Qmc3cHnyvBLM-1704733223-0-gaNycGzNDSU 8.https://borgenproject.org/tag/majority-world/ 9.https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101040070 10. “Overlapping crises could fracture the global financial system”, Financial Times, 7 September 2023.

11. Provost, C. and Kennard, M. Silent Coup: how corporations overthrew democracy, Bloomsbury, 2023.

12. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56559073 13. Omand, D, How to Survive a Crisis, Penguin Random House, 2023.

14. https://www.britannica.com/money/ Washington-consensus 15. https://sdgs.un.org/goals

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REFERENCES (continued) 16.https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/11/natoalliance-us-europe-russia-geopolitics-china-militarydeterrence/ 17. https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/03/1134732 18. “Stretching the World Bank’s balance sheet”, Gillian Tett, Financial Times 29 September 2023.

19. Elephant in the Room | National Preparedness Commission 20. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/theuk-government-resilience-framework/the-ukgovernment-resilience-framework-html

Patricia Lustig leads LASA Insight Ltd, a strategic foresight company. She understands the need to explore potential futures to develop robust corporate strategy and implement successful change. She is the author or co-author of five books and numerous articles. She is a Board member of the Association of Professional Futurists where she is responsible for their flagship Emerging Fellows Programme.

Patricia Lustig

Gill Ringland is a Fellow of the British Computer Society, and of the World Academy of Arts and Sciences. She is now an Emeritus Fellow of SAMI. She has been co-opted onto EC and British government advisory bodies covering IT, Economic and Social Research, and Foresight. She is the author or co-author of eight books, used widely in Business Schools including Harvard, and numerous articles.

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USING SCIENCE FICTION AS A TOOL FOR MILITARY AND DEFENSE ORGANIZATIONS TO IMAGINE THE FUTURE OF WAR

By Elina Hiltunen

"Go see the Harry Potter films; they'll give you some good ideas for product development," the head of an international technology company recently told his staff when the Harry Potter films were coming to cinemas.

The Potter films had magic: brooms flew, students hid under invisibility cloaks, step patterns indicated the location of people on a magical map, pictures in a newspaper moved and on the walls of Hogwarts, paintings talked to each other, as the characters were alive.

Magic is about pushing the boundaries of imagination. It is also what technology does at its best: speech and images are transmitted from one part of the world to the other faster than the blink of an eye, a heavy aeroplane stays in the air and moves masses of people efficiently, a turn of a knob heats the stove to cook food, and a by turning the lever on the tap, water flows.

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If we used a time machine to transport a person from the Middle Ages to the present day, (s)he would consider the whole world to be full of magic. Indeed, science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke said: "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."

Technology is the magic of the modern age, and this magic is one of the biggest drivers of change in the world. By understanding technology and the opportunities and threats it brings, we can better envision, create, and prepare for the different futures that may await us.

Science fiction offers an excellent tool for envisioning the future.

Some organizations are already using science fiction as a tool for anticipating the future. These include not only businesses but also military and defence organizations.

The use of science fiction in organizations, especially in military and defence organizations, is the subject of my current research. I am doing my second PhD thesis on the topic, "Using Science Fiction in Defence Organization's Anticipation Process," through National Defence University, Finland. In my thesis, I am developing science fiction tools for military organizations to better envision the future of warfare.

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WHAT IS SCIENCE FICTION? There are many definitions of science fiction in the literature. With my professor Aki-Mauri Huhtinen, I have put forward one definition of science fiction. According to it, science fiction consists of three dimensions: technology, the future, and society (see figure 1). In other words, science fiction is about the impact of new technology on people and society in the future. It is, therefore, not just a question of looking at new technologies and extrapolating them into the future, but of thinking about the significance of new technologies for society and people.

Because I love formulas (they make life so simple!) I have developed a formula for anticipating the future. Consider this: Anticipating the Future

Facts

Imagination

The idea behind the formula is that in anticipating the future, you need to look at the facts, i.e., data from the past and the present. Facts are, for example, trends, like the increase in the number of electric cars on the road between 2010 and 2024.

However, it is impossible to anticipate the future by looking in the rear-view mirror: past and present alone. The only way to leap into the future is to use your imagination. “What if?” is the fundamental question for a futurist when envisioning the future.

My formula for the future also applies well to science fiction. In science fiction, it is essential to know the facts, for example, what new technologies are being developed currently. In addition to knowing the facts, it is vital to use imagination. How might these new technologies affect society and people in the future? This is how science fiction narratives are created.

Figure 1: Definition of Science Fiction by Hiltunen and Huhtinen

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Like foresight in general, science fiction is not x intended to predict the future. Science fiction helps us to prepare for different (technology) driven futures. Science fiction also helps us innovate the future: many of today's technological innovations have been present in science fiction. Science fiction stories have inspired engineers throughout the ages to develop new products.

In organizations, however, I would argue that imagination is undervalued to factual knowledge. Imagination is vague. It is difficult to measure, unlike cold facts. Imagination is sometimes thought to be childish and does not fit into the serious adult world.

Imagination can produce strange outputs.

The result of imagination is fairy tales. Thus, it is sometimes considered dangerous.

IMAGINATION IS A VALUABLE ASSET

Yet organizations and individuals can cope with the new situations that the future throws at us through imagination and the creation of new things. They also can use imagination to create a better future and to be a pioneer. Underestimating the value of imagination is dangerous, I argue. It is essential to use one’s imagination because somebody there, such as an opposing force, is using her/his imagination. Especially in warfare, imagination becomes a powerful tool.

An essential part of science fiction is imagination. Imagination is a powerful force for change. The world's most famous physicist, Albert Einstein, ranked imagination above knowledge. If we can imagine something, we can also, in the future, possibly make that vision concrete, make it real.

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A CHEAP WEAPON IN WARFARE CALLED IMAGINATION

MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS SCIENCE FICTION

Warfare also involves imagination. When resources are limited, imagination can create innovations from the scarce resources. Examples can be found in history, such as Finland's survival in the Winter and Continuation Wars of 19391944 against the massive Russian army. In the 1940s, Finnish soldiers developed the so-called "Molotov cocktail" for anti-tank warfare because the most effective antitank weapons were in short supply. The Molotov cocktail consisted of petrol, alcohol, and tar in a glass bottle. The Spanish Civil War inspired this cocktail.

When the bottle was thrown onto the bonnet of a tank, it set the tank on fire.

Without anti-tank weapons, the Finns even pushed logs into the tracks of tanks to stop their advance.

Military and defence organizations are also beginning to understand the potential of science fiction in anticipating future warfare.

Several public science fiction reports and books by military organizations describing the future of warfare can be found on the Internet. The first military organization report, or in this case book, that I found on an internet search was Crisis of Zefra, a book commissioned by Karl Schroeder of the Department of National Defence-Director General Land Capability Development, Canada.

Another example of using imagination in war is accordion music as “a weapon” in electronic warfare. In 1941, Russia mined Vyborg, and mines were detonated using radio frequencies. When the Finns detected the frequency, they began to play a song played by accordion called "Lake Säkkijärvi Polka" on the radio at that frequency for three consecutive days. This prevented the mines from exploding.

Among recent warfare innovations, one could mention Tinder, used as “a weapon” in the Ukrainian war. By creating Tinder profiles, the Ukrainians obtained critical intelligence on Russian soldiers and the location of troops.

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USING

The book was published in 2005. Its events occur around 2025 in an African city-state where Canadian peacekeepers secure the first democratic elections while fighting the insurgency. The book was followed up in 2014 when Karl Schroeder wrote Crisis in Urlia. It describes the outbreak of a new disease in the 'Pakistan-India plurinational zone' called Urlia. A Canadian rapidresponse team is working in Urlia to try to calm the situation. A couple of exciting science fiction reports were published in 2016. Allied Command Transformation's Vision of Warfare 2036 and the United States Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory's Science Fiction Futures: Marine Corps Security Environment Forecast 2030-2045. The Vision of Warfare 2036 publication contained 12 different stories of future warfare. The stories mainly describe the actions of NATO forces in various conflict situations worldwide. Science Fiction Futures: Marine Corps Security Environment Forecast 20302045, on the other hand, contained three different stories set in Nigeria, Taiwan, and Morocco.

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A year later, in 2017, the U.S. Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative’s Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 20302050 report was published. It was based on a writing competition that attracted as many as 150 entries from 10 countries.

The report published 23 stories that participated in the competition.

The Army Cyber Institute has published at least 14 science fiction stories since 2018.

Examples of the stories are Invisible Force: Information Warfare and the Future of Conflict (2020) and Quantum Winter (2018).

The most recent stories are from 2023.

These stories are mainly presented as comics. They are referred to as "threatcasting science fiction novellas" and "future conflict graphic novellas", a designation that emphasizes the graphic nature of the reports. The reports deal with topics such as weapons of mass destruction, information warfare, cyber warfare and electronic warfare.

But why do military and defence organizations spend time and resources on science fiction? The reasons can be roughly listed in three categories. Science fiction is used: to anticipate future warfare, technologies and threats, to enhance the use of imagination, and to communicate the threats to a wider audience.

These reasons can be found in the report themselves.

Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative’s report underlines science fiction as an anticipatory tool: One of the founding ideas inspiring the contest was the notion of ‘Science Fiction as reality.’ Science fiction has been historically predictive of future technologies and ideas.”

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The Vision of future warfare 2036 underlines the imagination aspect:

A TOOL FOR CREATING SCIENCE FICTION STORIES IN MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS

The foundational hypothesis for this project is that leveraging the rich tradition of futurist storytelling will assist innovative and transformational thinking.”

In my dissertation work, I developed different methods for using science fiction in military organizations to think about future warfare and threats with my professor. An article presenting one of the tools was published in the Journal of Information Warfare in in the Autumn 2022 issue. It is a five-step tool that first develops different scenarios, considers the key elements of the warfare in question (in this case, information warfare), discusses possible potential technologies, and produces science fiction narratives about different information warfare scenarios. The tool is shown in Figure 2. The tool combines three theories: Yrjö Seppälä's Futures Tables, Shannon and Weaver's Communication Theory and Brian David Johnson's Science Fiction Prototyping Theory.

The communication aspect is underlined in the report Invisible Force: Information Warfare and the Future of Conflict (2020): The intent of this graphic novel is to influence the thinking of U.S. leaders developing future policies, processes, and systems that will enable us to disrupt, mitigate, recover, and defeat any nefarious uses of technology by competitors and adversaries alike, in future information-age conflicts.”

Figure 2: A five step tool by Hiltunen and Huhtinen to imagine the future of information warfare.

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Using the tool, we developed two different scenarios of what future information warfare might look like in very different worlds.

One scenario, for example, included miniswarm drones that aired as a display to show propaganda. In another scenario, micro-targeting of social media messages.

Our paper also considered how to defend against different types of information warfare, such as using virtual soldiers in metaverse to fight false information.

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CONCLUSION Technology has changed and will continue to change our future more radically.

Artificial intelligence, quantum computers, metaverse, internet of things, robotics, sensor technology, genetic modification, synthetic biology, green energy, geoengineering are just some examples of technologies that can radically reshape our lives. They will also shape future warfare.

We must dare to use our imagination to prepare for the various threats posed by technology – and the enemy. Science fiction is an excellent tool for thinking about the impact of technology on society or future war. In this tool, the use of imagination is closely tied in.

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REFERENCES: Allied Command Transformation. 2016. ‘Allied Command Transformation (2016) Vision of Warfare: 2036’,. Norfolk, VA: Allied Command Transformations.

Cole, August, and Peter Singer. 2020. ‘Invisible Force- Information Warfare and the Future of Conflict’. Army Cyber Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14216/524.

Hiltunen, Elina. 2019. Tulossa Huomenna, Miten Megatrendit Muokkaavat Tulevaisuuttamme.

Docendo.

Hiltunen, Elina, and Aki-Mauri Huhtinen. 2022. ‘’Future of Information Influence Operations: Scifi as a Tool to Imagine the Unthinkable’. Journal of Information Warfare 4: 79–99.

Johnson, Brian David. 2011. Science Fiction Prototyping, Designing the Future with Science Fiction. Springer Cham. ———. 2018. ‘Quantum Winter’.

Army Cyber Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14216/544.

Schroeder, Karl. 2005. Crisis in Zefra. Canadian Government Publishing. ———. 2014. Crisis in Urlia. Department of National Defence—Director General Land Capability Development Canada. http://www.kschroeder.com/weblog/crisis-in-urliapublished.

Seppälä, Yrjö. 1984. 84 Tuhatta Tulevaisuutta (84 Thousand Futures). Helsinki. Shannon, Claude, and Warren Weaver. 1964. The Mathematical Theory of Communication. University of Illinois Press. https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_2383164/com ponent/file_2383163/content.

U.S. Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative. 2016.

‘Science Fiction: Visioning the Future of Warfare 2030-2050’. U.S. Army.

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Elina Hiltunen Futurist Elina Hiltunen is a Doctor of Science (Business Administration) and Master of Science (Chemical Engineering). Her first doctoral thesis at Aalto University, School of Business, was about using weak signals in organizational futures learning. It was published in 2010. Currently she is doing her second PhD thesis at National Defence University, Finland, about how to use science fiction in the defence organisation’s anticipation process. She is the author/co-author of 14 books. She has been writing books about foresight methods, the future of technology, consumer trends, megatrends, the future of the world, and depression. She has also written children’s books and amigurumi crochet books. She is also a science fiction writer. Hiltunen is an active keynote speaker, columnist, and consultant. Currently, she is an entrepreneur, but she also has a background working at Nokia, Finland Futures Research Center and the Finnish trade promotion organization, Finpro, as a futurist. She is also a regular guest on the Finnish Broadcasting Company's science programmes, discussing the achievements of science. She lives in Espoo, Finland.

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COLLAPSE: TO FALL TOGETHER

By Dr. Monica Mastrantonio

Collapse comes from the Latin verb "collabi," which means "to fall together." The prefix "col" is the root for "together," and "labi" is "to fall." Over time, this word was spread by various languages, referring to the sudden breakdown of a structure, system, or object.

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"The Decline of the American Empire" (1986) is a Canadian movie, directed by Denys Arcand, that explores, through satire and philosophical dialogues, if there are any morals in a society ruled by money. The provocative dialogues among four couples who are intimate friends point out the incongruences and unsustainability of such a society. How can the pursuit of individual happiness, the saving of the planet, and the economic market be ever united?

Recently, I had a quick job in a cafeteria in Germany. Incredibly enough, the word I heard the most during those days was – catastrophe! As strange as it seems, my two shift colleagues referred to everything that was not right as, see = catastrophe!

Anything unclean, not properly displayed, or set was classified by End of Days Vocabulary.

Being a psychologist, psychoanalyst, and researcher, I was aware of the use of words, and specifically, of the expansion of such words. Collapse, catastrophe, and crisis -- coincidently three C's -- somehow have become part of everyone's vocabulary, based on this observation.

Nevertheless, Western civilization is not the only one to achieve such an outcome.

Other civilizations before us have also collapsed for a variety of reasons.

Ancient Sumer (2000 BC - Bronze Age) collapsed due to the salinization of soil due to poor irrigation, political instability, and the invasions of the Mycenaean (1100 BC).

Ancient Greece (circa 146 BC - Roman Conquest) fell because of multiple invasions, internal disputes, and the decline of trade.

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Ancient Egypt (circa 1069 BC – Iron Age) succumbed due to political instability and invasions by the Assyrians and Persians.

The Roman Empire (circa eighth century B.C., to 476 AC) was attributed to internal decays, economic troubles, over expansion, military problems, and barbarian tribes.

The Byzantine Empire (1453 AC - Middle Ages) includes the list of collapses when the Ottoman Turks took Constantinople.

The truth is, no civilization is ever safe, no matter how hard they try to prevent it.

While specific factors for why civilizations collapse may vary from one to another, many collapses are deeply rooted in climate crises, internal ruptures, and invasions. The composition and order may alter, but no one survives with food restrictions, instability, and defences at bay (not socially, nor individually). Furthermore, it does not require much effort to read the news and find all three. That said, is collapse humanity’s destiny?

COLLAPSE AS DESTINY Collapse is typically complex and multifaceted, quite often involving a combination of internal and external factors. The external reasons are often explored in history; however, what are the human factors present in collapse times?

Safa Motesharrei, a systems scientist from the University of Maryland, notes “instability is grown by social disparities and inequalities” in his thesis about the Models of Human-Nature Interaction[1] (2014). The economic and social gaps generate a lack of social cohesion.

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Without social cohesion, individuals start to have increased conflicts among each other. It is the beginning of the end.

The absence of cooperative relationships can hinder a civilization's ability to respond to crises. Building and maintaining social capital is crucial for resilience and adaptability, but how does the lack of social connections relate to collapse? What sort of behaviours can pre-announce apocalyptical times ahead? What sort of non-adaptive behaviours can even trigger more collapse and ruin?

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Well, most of my futurist colleagues are working hard to build paths towards positive futures. Some are studying the probabilities of what is to come within data science. Many are expressing their continuous enthusiasm for the advances of technology, whereas others are advocating for individuals to become more resilient.

By looking at the intersection of the individual and the social – I would like to suggest a trio of behaviours that may preannounce the arrival of challenges ahead, including disruptions. They may not be the direct cause of the collapse, but there are certain behaviour patterns and individual traits that should be looked at to better understand these processes.

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OVERCONFIDENCE

FAILURE TO SUBLIMATE

Although self-confidence is a fair and wellincentivised personal trait, the truth is that too much of it can change one's selfperception, altering one's response, and leading to a biased perception of reality.

No one is immune to moments of super confidence, but could too much of it weaken social cohesion, and a sense of belonging? Would overconfidence bring a feeling of not needing anyone else -- to such a point that it washes away social cohesion, and with it, the concept of the social that binds one to another?

The psychoanalytical view of civilization for psychologist Sigmund Freud is based upon the repression of the death drive. What does this mean? Humans can easily kill and destroy each other; however, this energy is sublimated and directed to more constructive and adaptive behaviours.

In The Culture of Narcissism: American Life in an Age of Diminishing Expectations, (1979), Christopher Lasch criticises contemporary Western culture for its self-indulgence, consumerism, and emphasis on individual gratification. For him, these trends could only contribute to a decline in the cultural and social fabric of today's society.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, I was quite worried about the outcome. I was in Germany at the time and expressed my worries to a professor who worked for a local university. The professor was very confident that Putin would not stand a chance. I was immediately concerned about the way it was addressed more than the war itself. Having grown up hearing the stories of WW2, I knew overconfidence could blind one's perception and produce biased behaviours.

Why? Thus, one's estimations of risk and success can simply deviate from reality.

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This is how art, culture, care, and diplomacy are developed. Henri Bergson, the philosopher of Free Will, calls this “the Elan of Life.” It’s best described as an openness to construction instead of destruction.

However, there is no definite guarantee of this composition, neither at the social nor the individual level.

This is how the outside and inside world continues to be "a battlefield of opposing forces," Eros and Thanatos, Life and Death, Construction and Collapse. There can be positive outstanding futures as well as mass destruction. This choice and capacity are what would distinguish humanity from animals (not intelligence). It is a choice!

Civilization can only survive if built on instinctual renunciation, delay of immediate enjoyment, creation of substitute objects, inhibition of aggressive tendencies, sublimation of hostilities, etc. Now, the question is, is this sublimation still active?

The history of earlier civilizations points to examples of the vulnerability of these sublimated forces. If sublimation fails, all the repressed instincts can come to life. This is how the death instinct starts to rule and the elimination of the other becomes the regulation. Would this be a coincidence with the actual reality?

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Persistent social tensions, unmet desires, over-projection to scapegoats, inability to dialogue, and denial of internal conflicts, all of these contribute to societal breakdowns. The societal collapse also relates to how individuals respond to authority, whether they blindly follow destructive leaders or challenge oppressive systems trying to create new forms of a healthy existence. Dysfunctional imbalances may supply the pathway to sublimation failure, and there, Shakespeare is right – “Hell is empty / And all the devils are here.”

HOPELESSNESS Dante Alighieri said once that, at the door of hell, there is a sign, which reads: “Leave all Hope behind.” In the metaphoric sense, this is indeed the beginning of it.

The most surprising result of my post-doc research – Imaginable Futures -conducted at the Graduate Centre of Cultural Studies at Justus Liebig University was the number of individuals who imagined and expected the future to be much like it was now.

Also, the outcome topics from the above survey show a shift from external aspects to inner ones, i.e. the lack of such as traits related to social cohesion and collective existence. Societies may show collective defence mechanisms in the face of existential threats, whether through denial of problems, scapegoating, or simply avoiding crucial issues. What is seen here is a very conscious process that shows that unless human relations to other humans is reframed – there will be no hope.

Perhaps, this is exactly the point of collapse, perhaps to all earlier collapse.

Perhaps, collapse comes when humans stop being humans...they start wishing to be gods, animals, and machines but fail to recognize that they can only be humans. It takes a giant step to acknowledge one’s own humanity – with all one's majesty and despair.

Only 14.1% of the respondents were confident that the world would reach the 17 SDG goals. On the other hand, 78% of the 331 participants located around the globe said that education about the future should be a top priority. When they were asked what topics these courses should cover, the answer was – hope, kindness, and mental health. Would it be possible for mankind to just start worrying about issues once these are gone or at bay?

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Although the concepts of Overconfidence, Failure to Sublimate, and Hopelessness may offer some insights into understanding collapse from a socialpsychologist perspective, Gore Vidal sums it all up by saying that CO₂ emissions anywhere threaten civilization everywhere.

Therefore, unless there is a major shift in understanding that collapse happens when walls are built instead of bridges -the films, their endings, and humanity’s hope remain unchanged! *Dissertation Supervision for the Business Psychology Course at Arden University - UK, Chartered Psychologist at BPS, Researcher at the University of Edinburgh on prophetic futures, Consultant.

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Dr. Monica Mastrantonio Dr. Monica Mastrantonio is a psychologist, futurist, transhumanist, and postdoctoral researcher at the University of Giessen on Imaginable Futures. Visiting Professor at the University of York on Women’s Letter Studies. Ph.D. in Social Psychology. An activist at Word Forest Organization UK. Researcher of Bergson’s Time.

Author as Margareth Stewart. CEO at Majestique Regenerative Farming.

Goodwill and ASW ambassador.

Research Foundation of India in Education and Training.

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COLLAPSING CREATIVITY: SHOULD WE ABANDON THE COLLAPSE SCENARIO?

By Jeremy Wilken

Futures thinking requires that the people engaged in the work, actively or passively, have an open mind and an expansive view to be able to fully interact with the possibilities of the future. Typically, it is our goal to use futures as a substrate to better enable the creative exploration of opportunities in the present.

Often a collapse scenario is called upon to provide a negative, but provocative, image of the future. However, does the use of collapse scenarios enable creative thinking?

To align on concepts, a collapse scenario is one of the common scenario archetypes. It may go by other names, but the basic concept is that some combination of events are projected to dramatically affect the future in a way that is negative to the consumer of the scenario and the expectation is the organization has to understand what to do when the environment in which they operate has turned against them. If a bridge collapses the road becomes closed, and so too, with a collapse scenario, which closes off a path. For example, a collapse scenario for a space-related organization could include Image source: Canva MARCH 2024

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orbital debris, which has become so prolific that all space activities are nearly impossible. This collapse effectively hinders the ability of the organization to function.

I originally had the question, does collapse even exist? Through conversations with other futurists, friends, and research, it became clear that the terminology lacks enough definition to be answered clearly.

Simply put, it depends on what you mean by collapse and what your perspective is.

Some see collapse from a temporal lens, a short-term transformation in which the systems can’t adjust quickly enough to handle (think Chaotic systems in Cynefin).

Some see it as a real thing that is identified by the harm it causes (typically in retrospect). Others argued it is just a point in the narrative (that might appear to be an ‘end’ but is a turning point).

This led to the realization that this is exactly the kind of discussion and debate that a collapse scenario should evoke. But does it in practice? My takeaways from those discussions led me to define several key issues with collapse scenarios.

Narrows focus. The nature of the collapse event is something that can easily take center stage over the larger environment of the scenario (thanks to fellow futurist Juli Rush for sharing the concept of ruin porn, which is the beauty we find in collapsing ruins). We tend to have an innate fascination with collapse, and by putting it front and center it can be given too much emphasis and limit creative thinking.

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Emphasizes negatives. I’ve rarely seen a collapse scenario that wasn’t a negative event, even though it doesn’t have to be.

I’m guilty of this in my own work too. We tend to think of positive collapse as transformation. A collapse almost has to be negative, and therefore it often invokes a sense of anxiety and fear. This can reduce a participant’s creative energy in assessing the scenario.

Impacts timelines. Collapse scenarios tend to include a rapid change or major event that can artificially limit the timeline. If a scenario places a major collapse event in the middle of the project time horizon, it can limit our imagination because we’re now locked into a timeline for a specific event to occur.

It follows then, that with a narrow focus and timeline that a collapse scenario can generate fewer implications and overall value in a discussion with participants using the scenarios. There also is science that backs this up. The same brain systems that support creativity are the same as the systems impacted by stress, and that leads to a type of competition in the brain that limits creativity when experiencing stress. There is certainly a lot we don’t understand about the brain and maybe a collapse scenario is not equal to a stressful situation, but the potential for harm remains in how collapse scenarios are presented and influence thinking.

For futurists, discussing collapse scenarios might not be as dangerous as I suggest above. When you are familiar with futures thinking and are comfortable exploring the future in different ways, you are not as likely to be influenced by the seduction that a

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collapse scenario has to offer to limit your thinking. However, those with whom we work usually don’t have such backgrounds, and we may limit the creativity of those individuals participating in our scenarios.

In some of my discussions, examples of collapse were offered, and each time it was possible to reframe the collapse as something else.

For example, the Roman empire collapsed over hundreds of years across a continent, but a contemporary of the era might not have known it was happening so it is a historical perspective. If a building collapses overnight, the company that used it continues to exist. Even when a government collapses, in many cases, a new form of order and organization follows. Perhaps most importantly, the collapse of one team’s record for the season will lead a team fan to despair while a rival team’s fan will celebrate. This means we need to be very careful with the perspective of what we mean by discussing collapse, and work hard to ensure all participants have the same understanding.

As a scenario archetype, I think it is time to consider an alternative. In the Houston Archetype Technique (HAT), Andy Hines takes a step in this direction by making the collapse scenario a stepping stone on the transformation journey instead of as a destination. In a discussion at the University of Houston’s annual spring gathering of foresight alumni and students, Hines also reviewed some research about historical scenarios and found that the collapse scenario was almost never the path but instead there were various types of transformation.

I believe we should reframe the collapse scenario archetype, to get away from the stigma that the term collapse inserts into the creative thinking processes. I offer up two possibilities as a replacement option, the Chaotic and Disruption scenarios.

Chaos is a space of disorder, which means that things have a collapse-like shift away from the baseline, but it reduces the negative bias and reliance upon a specific event. It can better embrace chaos as an engine of change rather than collapsing down the creative options.

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Disruption is perhaps an even more neutral term and focuses on describing a significant system change, which is conceptually the same as what a collapse accomplishes. It helps change the notion of a failing system to something that is changing and requires creative solutions.

There may be specific situations where you might want to use the collapse scenario language, based on the maturity and understanding of an organization’s needs. If the organization has worked extensively with scenarios and futures before, a collapse might not incur the issues outlined earlier. However, as a standard archetype I believe we should steer clear of it and look for alternatives.

The collapse scenario has been a mainstay in many scenario portfolios, but that seems to be changing. I see evidence of some practitioners moving away from collapse language. Others craft their own set of archetypes that can reflect a different nuance. Perhaps it is time to let it go from our standard archetypes and explore alternatives that support more creative thinking.

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Jeremy Wilken Jeremy Wilken is an academically trained futurist and seasoned engineering leader focusing on how to shape positive futures with technology. He recently joined the APF Board. He holds an M.S. degree in Foresight from the accredited University of Houston program. He has authored two books, spoken globally at events, run podcasts, and is recognized by Google as a Developer Expert. He lives with his family in Austin TX.

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WORLD OF FUTURES THINKING Image source: Canva DECEMBER 2023

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THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY: A GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE Exploring a vision of mobility for the City of Cape Town in 2050

By Deidre Samson and Ian Paterson

“The shifts in thinking, shaped by our scenarios, have been widespread and are now somewhat of a norm. Where the mind-set of not immediately having an answer as to what to do next initially caused discomfort, it is now embraced and is a clear signal that unconscious shifts back to more traditional processes have not been automatic.

It has been extremely useful to have futurists advise on possible methods and to facilitate discussions to guide the scenario process. This has assisted in developing a view of compelling plausible futures within which agile, relevant and more resilient transport systems can be developed.

-- Claire Holderness, Manager, Marli Swart, Principal Professional Officer, City of Cape Town Transport Planners - Systems and Modelling;

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The future of mobility in cities in the developed and developing worlds is of great significance to residents. Mobility provides access to opportunities, influences quality of life through emissions, and facilitates the physical connectivity required to power local economies. This is clearly evident in the City of Cape Town, South Africa, where natural beauty often masks structural inequalities. Despite the advent of democracy, spatial and commuting patterns continue to be exacerbated by the legacy of apartheid-era spatial planning and inadequate access to public transport.

How could an understanding of the plausible futures of mobility in the city make a difference to residents’ lives? A scenario planning process offers up some hope, perspective, and insights into potential solutions. As the management consulting firm McKinsey confirmed: Mobility is one of the hottest sectors.

The influx of innovative solutions has yet to solve the problem of congested roads however, and almost every country is feeling the effects. New mobility trends and automotive technologies, especially leading-edge electric-vehicle (EV) batteries, frequently make the headlines.

Others are emerging more quietly but could have an equally significant effect on future mobility, although some may not exert their full impact for several years.” (McKinsey, 2023)

In times of great uncertainty and complexity, scenarios are important longterm tools that enable planners to successfully navigate important decisions around where and how to focus public investment and energy in an optimal mobility system. What will be the pace of adoption and impact of emerging technologies? Which interventions could accelerate an optimal mix of motorized and non-motorized transport? How do less formalized modes such as the dominant, but volatile minibus taxi industry contribute future value to public transport whilst simultaneously encouraging a shift to rail solutions with the potential for fast, safe and cost-effective travel for a fast-growing population?

Never has informed, aligned and responsive decision making been more important.

Never has historical data been less useful in determining what the future will look like.

The challenge in City of Cape Town’s scenario crafting was to balance rich streams of available information with actionable intelligence sourced through scenarios.

The successful melding of a scenario framework with an insightful understanding of systems and complexity thinking, together with the identification of clear contextual signals, creates an early warning system to inform important transport system decisions.

In 2022/23, a City of Cape Town (CCT) urban mobility planning team embarked upon an important journey to develop plausible MARCH 2024

scenarios to better understand plausible futures of mobility in the City by 2050.

The constraints in developing mobility scenarios for the City of Cape Town included a limited budget and a short period of time to develop the scenarios.

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This meant that planners had to be bold, focused, and use the collective intelligence of a microcosm of the mobility planning community to inform a rich, insightful view of what the future has in store for CCT. Large scale, high engagement processes are not new to City of Cape Town. It had already collaboratively developed a Massive Transformative Purpose for mobility and used Design Thinking to bring residents’ personas to life. Building on these foundations, futures tools such as Backcasting, Causal Loop Diagrams, Cross Impact Analysis and Futures Wheels were used to inform the logic of a structured scenario process as illustrated below:

All good scenarios start off with a clear framing of the challenge(s) to be explored.

For CCT, the guiding challenge was framed as: “What are the potential, plausible futures for safe, secure, sustainable and citizen centric Mobility for the city of Cape Town by 2050?”

Data regarding the current system and forces shaping its future were collected, providing a comprehensive foundation for the scenario crafting.

A key principle underpinning the approach was the active involvement of stakeholders from different disciplines within the urban and transport planning environments.

Figure 1: The Scenario Planning Process. Source: Scenario Workshop.

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A secondary objective was to integrate the different disciplines to increase awareness of the use of innovative strategic planning methods, whilst simultaneously encouraging collaboration and participation. This was done to ensure that the process and ultimately, the scenarios, are reflective of the important role access to mobility/transport plays in the broader urban planning system. This served as a catalyst for ongoing iteration and engagement and contributing to molding compelling narratives about the future of mobility within a future urban landscape.

Drawing in diverse perspectives ensured that the scenarios were not only robust but reflective of the complex multidimensional and interdependent factors shaping the future.

Participants selected the two axes representing the most uncertain and impactful forces that could potentially shape the future of safe, secure, sustainable, and citizen-centric mobility for City of Cape Town by 2050. These axes became pivotal in providing a structured framework to explore the myriad plausible future mobility possibilities.

THE RATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH OR DECLINE Although a highly contentious indicator of success, economic growth, “an increase in the production of economic goods and services, compared from one period of time to another” is still an important proxy for the future ‘job’ that the mobility system is expected to perform.

Figure 2: Pestle illustration Source: Scenario Workshop: Illustrator, Courtney Koopman MARCH 2024

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The City of Cape Town enjoys a strong local economy but is still strongly influenced by South Africa’s national economics. Issues such as load-shedding (availability of electricity), safety and security, as well as the national government’s stewardship of the economy, are all important forces influencing the future.

Understanding how economic growth, stagnation or contraction might play out impacts not only the future ‘job’ of mobility but also how it may be funded (public or private investment) and how economic interest groups such as the Minibus Taxi Industry (MBTI) may best align their interests with public transport operators to deliver citizen-centric mobility.

THE LEVEL OF FORMALITY IN THE ECONOMY AND, IN PARTICULAR, IN MOBILITY No marketplace is ever totally informal.

Levels of formality simply develop or regress based upon regulation, the effectiveness of regulatory enforcement and other barriers or incentives to entry.

Levels of formality therefore range from high levels of formality to low levels of formality. A mobility sector characterized by high levels of formality usually has forms of centralized control over mobility including the planning and management of public transport and regulations or prescribed standards that govern the way, where or how people live, work or travel.

With low levels of formality, power is decentralized, there are few rules or prescribed standards and the development of mobility solutions are emergent and organic based upon the MARCH 2024

needs, efforts and interests of individuals, groups and/or communities. In developing this axis, it was clear that there could be no value judgement about what was ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ in a high or low formality environment -- both have their benefits and downsides.

Minibus taxis, as a crucial supplement to public transport, operate in a hybrid form of formality. Many taxis are licensed to operate along specific routes and their conduct may be regulated through enforcement. It is also true that regulations are difficult to consistently enforce. Many unlicensed operators take advantage of a lack of enforcement capability to ‘bend the rules,’ setting up potential conflicts with authorities. The economic interests at play also ensure strong incentives to protect and enhance access to routes and passengers.

Whether or not MBTI becomes more or less formalized impacts the role it plays within the public transport system. As an important, non-subsidized, entrepreneurial supplement to the public transport system, the MBTI plays a critical role in ensuring mobility services to serve emergent demand. In a more formalized role, the MBTI’s role may well be extended into an enhanced range of safe mobility options extending from sedans to buses and from ad hoc to scheduled services.

Formality and regulation may also be used to shift choices of mobility modes by structuring greater incentivization or disincentivization. For example, if rail was a safe, secure, accessible, and low-cost public transport option, it may well fundamentally reshape mobility patterns in a city.

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Initially, four key narrative quadrants emerged from the two axes:

Figure 3: Four Scenarios. Source: Scenario Workshop.

Developing scenarios around the future of mobility required planners to suspend disbelief and to imagine a world that exists beyond the boundaries of current reality.

The following paragraphs provide a glimpse of the narratives developed.

SCENARIO 2: A TALE OF TWO CITIES It is 2050 and Cape Town can best be described as the city that never sleeps!

High rates of economic growth have attracted high net worth individuals and digital businesses to make Cape Town their home. Remote work has reduced the need for commuter public transport, with citizens able to work flexibly whilst enjoying CCT’s ‘green lung’ corridors.

Tourism has soared but is more environmentally friendly with controls over aircraft emissions. Integrated mobility solutions link high-speed rail connections with light rail and bus rapid transport systems. The City centre has transformed into a mixed-use, mixed-income, highdensity living environment, which provided close proximity to work. Poverty has been alleviated through a City-funded Universal Income Grant, which incentivises social contribution. Mobility-as-a-Service has replaced private vehicle ownership with mobility charges paid directly to City.

Figure 4: Scenario 1 – Tale of Two Cities. Reference: Scenario Workshop.

Illustrator: Rashied Rahbeeni.

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SCENARIO 2: ALL ABOARD In 2050, Cape Town is a thriving, bustling metropolis! Migration from all parts of Africa has supplemented Cape Town’s already rich heritage of cultural diversity.

Wherever you go, the sounds and smells of the continent’s wide range of cultures entice one to spend time in restaurants, pubs or retail emporiums offering a spectrum of consumer and tourism experiences. The diversity of people who now call the City home have brought unique skills, abilities, and an entrepreneurial flair to the local economy.

Spatial planning has however failed to make a difference and conflicts over access to land are prevalent. Mobility solutions and spatial planning are aligned to minimise commuting.

Micro-mobility, in particular walking and cycling, are the first choices of many residents. Land usage requirements have been relaxed, with technology enabling localised production of goods, services and food. Conflict has emerged between those who advocate a return to natural living and access to technology, which has made digital work ubiquitous. Digital work has however become a low-paying occupation for many, despite the fact that digital entrepreneurs continue to thrive.

Figure 5: Scenario 2 – All Aboard. Source: Scenario Workshop. Illustrator: Rashied Rahbeeni.

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SCENARIO 3: MANAGED DECLINE In 2050, Cape Town has struggled economically for two decades with low and, at times, even negative economic growth. Political instability in South Africa, coupled with an uncertain and increasingly volatile world has meant that the City has had to dig deep to come up with the innovation required to ensure that its citizens enjoy secure, sustainable, and citizen-centric public transport.

Economic challenges have meant that the transition from the Internal Combustion Engine to renewable energy powered vehicles has not been as widespread as expected. The City attempts to control usage and emissions whilst incentivising the transition. Alternative sources of funding such as Public Private Participations (PPP) have been used to develop new Light Rail Transit (LRT) / Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Infrastructure, although the City moves increasingly towards licensing all forms of mobility to fund revenue shortfalls.

Figure 6: Scenario 3 – Managed Decline. Source: Scenario Workshop.

Illustrator: Rashied Rahbeeni.

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SCENARIO 4: BLOOMSDAY In 2050, Cape Town has adapted to ongoing low levels of economic growth and, at times, sharp contractions. Although the world is now a far more stable place, CCT has been deeply impacted by South Africa’s struggle to sustain higher levels economic growth. The City’s equitable share from the national government has shrunk as funds have had to be diverted elsewhere to deal with areas of extreme poverty and need. South Africa’s agricultural output has been devastated by years of extreme weather events that have increased their impact and frequency in the years post 2030.

Figure 7: Scenario 4 –Bloomsday.

Reference: Scenario Workshop.

Illustrator: Rashied Rahbeeni.

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Low levels of compliance with licensing requirements have also impacted the City’s revenues and it is no longer able to fund mobility infrastructure or enforcement, choosing rather to incentivise the transition to energy efficient, autonomous vehicles. Technology has advanced to ensure that these are safe from collisions and new solar-powered autonomous vehicles are widely used for mobility purposes. Mobility mega-entrepreneurs have become wealthy and powerful, clashing with one another for routes and passengers, with the City often powerless to intervene.

During the evolution of the scenario narratives, an important question resonated with participants, “What would be the impact if energy was free?’” A fifth scenario was therefore created imagining the possibilities free energy could unlock.

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SCENARIO 5: LAZY MOBILITY Low-cost energy -- unthinkable 30 years before but now the new normal! Spray-on solar film has allowed any surface -- cars, homes and buildings to become solar energy generators. In 2050, every building is treated in this manner, feeding basement power storage units sufficient to keep every appliance working all day and night long.

Low-cost energy has also revolutionized public transport. The previous challenges of air pollution and excessive carbon emissions driving climate change, are interesting chapters in the near-past history of City of Cape Town. They have been supplanted by challenges caused by

congestion as City of Cape Town’s inhabitants take to the streets to enjoy mobility freedom.

Whether citizens live in affluent suburbs or low-income townships, everyone has easy access to mobility. The trade-off however is that mobility has become more formalized and regulated. Micro-mobility in the form of electric scooters, bicycles, and covered electric Trikes became a boom industry in the transitional 2040s, with cheap conversions and the sale/servicing of new electric versions attracting entrepreneurs.

Micro-mobility has become the primary feed-in to public transport as commuters use micro mobility as a primary source of home to transport access…

Figure 8: Scenario 5 – Lazy Mobility.

Source: Scenario Workshop.

Illustrator: Rashied Rahbeeni.

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In reflection, the power of scenarios does not lie solely in the content of their narratives. The true power lies in the powerful, no holds barred conversations they provoke. These have shifted perspectives and world views whilst stimulating creative thinking. They have evolved a new shared perspective of embracing emergent strategy and agile, resilient planning.

The challenge now lies in navigating towards a range of plausible futures, whilst continuously adapting and re-shaping a mobility ecosystem that delivers enhanced value to citizens.

Deidre Samson

The future is not some place we are going, but one we are creating; The paths are not to be found but made; And the activity of making them, changes both the maker and the destination.

-- John H. Schaar ____________________________________________ REFERENCES: Kersten Heineke., K, Laverty N., Möller., T & Ziegler F. 2023. The Future of Mobility. McKinsey & Company. 23 April 2023. Retrieved from: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotiveand-assembly/our-insights/the-future-of-mobilitymobility-evolves Wade, W. 2012. Scenario Planning – A Field Guide to the Future. Designed by Nathalie Wagner, NaWa Design. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, Hoboken, New Jersey. Wade & Company, SA

Deidre Samson has extensive corporate marketing, strategy, innovation, ideation and futures experience. Samson is a Director of Future-Fit and is a faculty member of the University of Stellenbosch Graduate School of Business Executive Development programme and the University of Free State MBA Programme where she lectures on scenario planning. Samson is on the following expert panels; United Nations Development Programme: Strategic Foresight Expert Roster, Interpol: Futures & Innovation Panel and Policy & Research Panel: Department of Economic Development and Tourism (Western Cape Government). Samson has a BA degree majoring in Communications and Psychology, a Post Graduate Diploma in Marketing, a Post Graduate Diploma in Future Studies - Cum Laude, an MPhil Futures Studies - Summa Cum Laude and Top Student (University of Stellenbosch).

Ian Paterson is a strategist, specialist large group facilitator and Director of Future-Fit, a boutique strategy and futures consultancy. Paterson works extensively across the public and private sectors globally and locally in South Africa.

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TRAPS OF FUTURES THINKING

By Graham Norris

The field of futures studies has created numerous tools and techniques to help people think into the future. Yet the specific psychological challenges to futures thinking that these tools seek to overcome are rarely made explicit. And that’s a shame, because thinking about the future is hard. By recognizing the real-life challenges people face when we ask them to engage in foresight work, we can more confidently frame the possible solutions to their problems in ways that will resonate with them.

So, what happens? We, as futurists, can sometimes fall into traps that skew or challenge our understanding of what lies ahead. This can lead to flawed decisionmaking and planning. Here are eight of the most common traps that futurists may encounter: 1. OVERCONFIDENCE We all have an innate need to be “right,” and that includes our forecasts for the future. Making decisions means having confidence in their plausibility and probability, and that requires a strong

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sense of certainty, which works well in the very short term. But believing too strongly in our ability to forecast possible futures often leads to poor decision-making. In particular, we don’t like to think about negative futures, so we tend to gloss over potential risks.

An example could be a financial firm that makes aggressive investments based on overly optimistic market forecasts. Of course, it needs forecasts to make decisions. But by becoming wedded to the forecasts, the company’s leadership fails to account for a potential economic downturn, which would leave it exposed.

Failure wasn’t a desired outcome, even though it was a possibility and should have been considered in detail.

To manage the tendency for overconfidence, it’s important to foster a culture of humility and critical thinking in yourself and those around you. This can be achieved by encouraging diverse viewpoints – through the use of devil’s advocates, pre-mortems and scenario planning – to challenge assumptions and improve adaptability.

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2. PRESENTISM You are probably familiar with anchoring bias, and there is no stronger anchor than the present. Viewing the future through the lens of current trends and conditions is natural, but it means we underestimate how these trends might evolve or change.

According to Construal Level Theory, things closer to us, in terms of time as well as physical distance, appear more concrete than those further away. That means the future appears fuzzy compared to the pleasant clarity of the present.

An example might be a retail chain that continues to focus solely on brick-andmortar stores, ignoring the rising trend of e-commerce. Several retail chains have already been burned by this kind of myopia and belief that the present will continue indefinitely into the future.

Resisting this tendency is difficult and requires regular analysis of emerging trends and technologies through continuous horizon-scanning. The aim is to encourage thinking beyond current paradigms and consider how societal, technological or other shifts might influence future developments.

3. LINEAR THINKING While humans tend to be focused on the very short term, we are nevertheless capable of mentally processing change.

However, the change we are conditioned to understand is gradual and linear. The problem with this kind of thinking is that it assumes the future will unfold as a direct extension of the present, often missing the possibility of sudden changes and disruptive events.

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An example might be an automotive company that expects a gradual shift to electric vehicles, overlooking the potential for rapid regulatory changes that could accelerate the transition. Catching or missing these “take-off” points can make a huge difference to the success of a company.

This problem is known in psychology as exponential growth bias, and it isn’t easy to overcome. It requires recognizing when abrupt change could be imminent and incorporating systems thinking to understand complex dynamics and interdependencies.

4. FAILURE TO REVISIT ASSUMPTIONS As circumstances evolve, assumptions that once seemed valid may become outdated, leading to flawed strategic decisions if not revised. It reflects the calcification of understanding, particularly of topics you may investigate only infrequently. The assumption that you “get it” and can move on is one of the many ways your brain tries to save energy.

For example, a software company might survey its main user base and discover that they prefer desktop over mobile. This knowledge becomes received wisdom that the company holds on to even after its users begin transitioning to mobile.

Combatting this problem requires identifying key assumptions and establishing a process for regularly reviewing them. Continuous learning and strategic flexibility can support these efforts.

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5. SHORT-TERM FOCUS Humans are naturally conditioned to focus on the very short-term. In fact, recent research suggests a lot of our mental capacity goes into making predictions about what is going to happen in the next few seconds. We don’t spend much time even thinking about tomorrow, let alone years from now. Yet overemphasis on immediate goals and challenges can obscure the importance of long-term planning and foresight.

In an organizational context, myopia focused on financial considerations is rife.

For example, a university might focus on current enrollment numbers while neglecting to develop long-term educational innovations and adapting to changing learning environments.

The challenge is balancing short-term targets with long-term objectives. Ideally, you can generate a vision that extends beyond immediate horizons and build strategies around it, ensuring the vision is vivid, motivating and frequently evoked.

6. SCENARIO OVERSIMPLIFICATION Scenarios are a popular way of exploring the future. In fact, it is natural for humans to consider various possibilities, albeit in the short term. However, the natural tendency is to simplify scenarios into binary or overly simplistic options, which can miss the subtleties and complexities of more nuanced futures.

more complex, likely outcomes take time and effort to construct and are more likely to be overlooked or constructed superficially.

There are no short cuts. A comprehensive understanding of the future requires nuanced thinking and the exploration of grey areas. The result should be a range of detailed scenarios that capture a spectrum of possibilities.

7. RISK AVERSION PARALYSIS The fear of making the wrong decision can lead to inaction, particularly in rapidly changing environments where timely decisions are crucial. As the World Health Organization’s Michael Ryan said at the start of the Covid pandemic: “The greatest error is to be paralyzed by the fear of failure. If you need to be right before you move, you will never win.”

An example might be a tech company that invents a new product that could replace parts of its existing portfolio. Without wanting to cannibalize the revenue it has relied on for years, it sits on the new technology for too long while competitors overtake it.

It’s difficult to instill a safe-to-fail culture, but the most successful companies encourage calculated risk-taking and learning from failures. This can be achieved by engaging in small-scale experiments to test new ideas before full implementation.

To illustrate this, imagine a healthcare organization that plans only for scenarios of either complete eradication or uncontrolled spread of a disease. The MARCH 2024

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Table 1. FUTURES THINKING TRAPS TRAP

SUGGESTION

1. Overconfidence

Foster a culture of humility and critical thinking. Use diverse viewpoints and scenario planning to challenge assumptions and improve adaptability.

Believing too strongly in the ability to forecast future events.

2. Presentism Viewing the future through the lens of current trends and conditions.

3. Linear Thinking Assuming the future will unfold as a direct extension of the present.

4. Failure to Revisit Assumptions Assumptions that once seemed valid may become outdated.

5. Short-Term Focus Overemphasis on immediate goals and challenges.

6. Scenario Oversimplification Simplifying future scenarios into binary or overly simplistic options.

7. Risk Aversion Paralysis The fear of making the wrong decision can lead to inaction.

8. Disempowerment Belief The perception that one has limited ability to influence future outcomes.

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Encourage thinking beyond current paradigms and consider how societal shifts might influence future developments.

Incorporate systems thinking to understand complex dynamics and interdependencies.

Establish a process for regular review and updating of key assumptions. Encourage continuous learning and flexibility in strategies.

Develop a vision that extends beyond immediate horizons and build strategies around it.

Encourage nuanced thinking and the exploration of grey areas.

Promote a culture of calculated risktaking and learning from failures.

Foster a sense of agency and empowerment.

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8. DISEMPOWERMENT BELIEF This is the perception that one has limited ability to influence future outcomes, often stemming from past failures or perceived lack of resources. This can stem from the pace of change and the volume of information we’re confronted with every day, which can lead to a sense of overwhelm and lack of agency.

For example, small business owners may believe that market trends are controlled by forces out of their control, leaving them feeling powerless to adapt or innovate.

It is important that this trap, perhaps more than any other, is addressed before any further exploration of the future is attempted. Success stories of overcoming challenges and navigating uncertainty can help build confidence, as can the cultivation of skills that encourage imagination and curiosity.

Each of these traps highlights the complexity and uncertainty inherent in forecasting and planning for the future. To navigate these challenges, it is essential to foster a culture of adaptability, continuous learning, and open-mindedness. By regularly revisiting our assumptions, encouraging diverse perspectives, and balancing short-term needs with long-term goals, we can develop a more nuanced and resilient approach to future planning.

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Graham Norris Graham Norris is an organizational psychologist focusing on foresight and futures thinking. He spent 20 years living in Asia, including a decade as a journalist in Taiwan, Singapore, and Japan.

More recently, he worked in marketing consulting and communications in Beijing, China, before moving back to the UK. He holds an MBA from Heriot-Watt University and studied the impact of rapid change on Chinese knowledge workers for his doctoral research. He now runs Foresight Psychology, helping people stretch their imaginations to design more innovative futures.

Find out more at: www.foresightpsychology.com

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THE FUTURE OF YOU: CAREERS IN FUTURES What happens next for retired or retiring futurists? An interview with Peter Hayward.

By Tracey Follows In this issue, we consider the career of a retired or retiring futurist, or just a futurist with a great career behind them. What happens next?

Have a question about your career in foresight and futures studies? Ask Tracey Follows, author of the recent book, Future of You. Send your question to Tracey at tracey@futuremade.group.

Often when we consider careers in foresight and futures, we think in terms of what it takes to get started. We might have in our mind’s eye a “preferable future” for ourselves that we are desperate to bring into being. We anticipate new contacts, a growing network, exploratory and experimental foresight work, and perhaps the accreditation or awarding of that work by professional bodies.

We seldom stop to think about what it might be like when we see it all in the rearview mirror.

With this in mind, I caught up with Peter Hayward to discuss just that.

Many readers of Compass know Peter as a futures practitioner, a lecturer, and a facilitator. And we all know him as the co-host of the fantastic Futurepod podcast. He has been passionate about the field of futures for many years, promoting the use of futures thinking in corporate, government and notfor-profit organisations while supporting and mentoring up-and-coming futures practitioners throughout the world.

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Tracey Follows Tracey Follows is the founder CEO of Futuremade, the futures consultancy, and Visiting Professor in Digital Futures and Identity at Staffordshire University. She is the author of the book, The Future of You, and host of the podcast of the same name.

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WHAT HAS CHANGED? I wanted to know how he thought futures and foresight capabilities had changed for both organisations and individuals over his career. What could he tell me about what’s changed and what has stayed the same?

“What continues is the kind of short to medium-level business or market intelligence for organisations that are trying to make decisions in short or medium timeframes in highly volatile environments. The foresight-futuresconsultant-world is still there and probably in demand more than ever. And the second thing that I think is unchanging is if you're doing serious longterm futures work with large asset systems then you are still needing to run empirically based futures work. Large scale. So that hasn't changed.”

“What I've been surprised at, and I still wrestle with this one, is that when I started doing futures, one of the principal methods you used to do basic futures work was environmental scanning - trend analysis and horizon scanning of emerging issues - the meat and drink of doing futures and foresight work. And it was so hard to do because you could not get up-to-date information. You were always working with information that was out of date, trying to make sense of emerging trends using data that was six to twelve months old. So the thought that here we are now, where people can literally get live data on so much, it should mean that we are able to do amazing futures and foresight work because there is so much more readily available data and its immediate. And yet the paradox is MARCH 2024

that we've actually got, seemingly, communities that wall themselves off from data and prefer to see the world through bubbles.”

“They seek people who share their view of the world and their view of the future.

We’ve got more information about what's changing in the world and yet we've actually got a social trend of people saying, I don't want to deal with a changing world. I want to hang out with people who think like me, and are interested in things that I'm interested in.”

THE ACTIVIST MINDSET I probed further about the role of activism and whether that was new to futures. Peter was keen to make the point that activism has always been present: “I think activism is another one of those areas of futures that hasn't changed. I think futures has always been attractive to activist mindsets and my simple reason why that is, is if you are associating your perspective with the people who don't have power, then the openness of the future is attractive to you. Because you use the future to dissolve the status quo. Using alternative futures is the way that you find agency, you dissolve the status quo, and you hold the status quo to account for what is wrong with the world and your preferred future.”

One of the things that is great about Peter’s perspective is that he can see the long tail of things, and one of the recurring themes of our conversation was around continuity.

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longer-term thinking, Peter was able to remind us that this has always been a limiting factor for futurists, it’s not peculiar to today’s corporatocracy: “I actually think we're going to continue doing the things we did. We’re still going to be working for organisations in very attenuated ways. We're going to be working for large organisations doing global scanning work…As Stuart Candy said in his Futurepod episode, there is a psychic burden that we as futurists have learned to manage: that as a futurist, you've often got to imagine things you'd prefer not to imagine. We've got to run scenarios that you would prefer that no one will ever see. I actually think that ability to spend time in possible futures that we do not wish in order to prepare for them, plan for them, prevent them…I think, is a skill and a capability that more futurists need.”

NON-FUTURIST FUTURISTS One thing he has observed over time is that more and more people doing futures aren’t referring to themselves as futurists: “I've talked to more people who don't call themselves futurists but they come from an arts background, or they come from arts activism or installation. I know people that are doing art therapy as part of futures work. There's something about building processes to work on internal capacity, along with the external futures work…We need courses that teach futures and foresight, of course we do. At the same time, people are going to use futures ideas to explore…”

What does Peter think is happening to older generations currently retiring from foresight, as this exciting emergent MARCH 2024

generation of non-futurist-futurists enters and affects the field?

“As people get older, they are still engaged in the world. We see people get more and more outrageous, because they just don't care. They just think what do I care about reputation? I don't care. So, we see a freedom in people as they get old. And to me, it's that freedom that people at my age and even older than me, have. I'm now freer to do almost anything in the future.”

STEPPING BACK Peter summed up the situation succinctly: “I don't know how you ever retire from doing futures thinking. If anything, as you get closer and closer to your own demise, I think you become a better futures thinker. As you realise your own time is running out.”

Does Peter think strategic foresight as a separate capability or practice will still exist in 50 years? Or will it have blended with other skills and approaches and become just second nature, especially with the emergence of assistive AI? “In the future, there will be another status quo, probably radically different to this status quo. So, if there is a status quo in the future, which I believe there will be, then by its nature, there will be a challenging future that is not the status quo. So maybe it won't be called futures and foresight. However, the notion of the contrarian -- the disruptor -- will be. It is and will always be there. The core feature of futures and foresight, to me, has always been that essence of contrarianism...the reaching for the not-now-not-yet-but-stillwanted will be part of the future -- the same as it is part of the now.”

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HOW CAN WE SPECULATE ABOUT THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE?

By Stephen Aguilar-Millan

Many futurists are comfortable with the idea of alternative futures. It is the notion that, from any specific point in time looking forward, there is a multiplicity of possible futures that could occur. Each of these possible futures is competing to come in to being, depending upon the right set of circumstances giving rise to each of those distinct futures.

However, what happens if we adopt this mode of thinking to the past and the present as well as the future?

Could we reasonably consider alternative histories and alternative presents? What would be the benefit of doing that?

And what techniques would help us to generate those alternative pasts and presents?

We often think of the past in terms of being fixed by what actually happened in the past. And yet, at any fixed point of time in the past, many alternatives presented themselves to the people of that time.

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In the present, we largely experience the past decisions of our ancestors, whether from the distant past or from a more recent past. Decisions could have been made differently that would have opened up a wide variety of alternative possibilities for us today.

We don’t have to delve too far back in time to think about this issue. For example, how would things be different now if Scotland were to have voted for independence in 2014? How would things have worked out if the United Kingdom had voted to remain in the EU in 2016? We know that neither of these things happened, but if we were to assume that they had, then we get an interesting range of possible outcomes for us today. This speculation provides us with a set of paths not travelled to arrive at different states for the present.

This is quite obviously an exercise in speculative fiction.

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ALTERNATIVE HISTORIES TO CREATE ALTERNATIVE FUTURES As it happens, there is a large and wellestablished genre of fiction that is known as “Alternative Histories.” Normally the fiction starts at a key moment in history, usually a key point of bifurcation, that examines the road not travelled. For example, there are many books along the lines of “The Guns of The South” by Harry Turtledove, where, at some key point in the American Civil War, the Confederacy are triumphant.

Alternatively, another line might be such as “Pavane” by Keith Roberts, where Elizabeth I is assassinated in 1588 and the Spanish Armada successfully lands in England. The key point here is to acknowledge the roads not travelled in the past; and to use the techniques of foresight to explore what might have been.

The principal reason for doing this is to understand the present better. In much of our thinking, we have an inclination towards path dependency. This is the situation where we take as axiomatic the legacy of the past. In terms of the Futures Triangle (a tool developed by Dr Sohail Inayatullah in 2008), we call it the weight of history. Developing a sense for alternative histories gives us a platform from which we can consider alternative iterations of the present. How our current lives could have been different.

If we rely upon the present as our starting point for the study of the future, we have already closed off a number of potential avenues into the future simply because we

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Image source: Canva

are unable to think of an alternative starting point. This results in a range of futures that look remarkably like the present, only more so.

For example, following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, there was much talk about a post-capitalist future. Very little of this talk amounted to much because the social and institutional fabric of capitalism was not varied in this thinking. If the foundations of a political and economic system are left in place, we cannot really be surprised that the

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successor system looks very similar to what had come before. One could argue that Russian history in the twentieth century provides a number of examples to support the point.

If we want to consider radical alternatives to the present, onto which we can hang alternative futures that have a radically different tinge themselves, then we might like to reach back to develop a set of alternative histories from which a timeline could be developed.

For example, in English law, the concept of corporate personality can be traced back to the case of Salomon v. A. Salomon and Company in 1897. The judgement was made that a company is separate to the directors and shareholders of that company, and it has its own legal personality. From this decision, much of the managerial and financial capitalism of the twentieth century ensued. But what if the case had been decided the other way?

What if a company were not to be separate from its directors and shareholders? How might twentieth century capitalism have developed? And where would that have placed us today?

In more modern times the U.S. Communications Decency Act of 1996 held that providers of “interactive computer services” are platforms in law and not publishers. This is a piece of legislation paved the way for the development of social media as we understand it today and provided the foundations for platform capitalism. What if this legislation had not been passed? How different would the world of today be?

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These are not idle questions. In an attempt to counter some of the excesses of the online world, current legislators are seeking to nullify the Communications Decency Act in an attempt to travel back in time and to reset the present in an endeavour to unlock a future with far less pornography, exploitation, and hate online. If the Communications Decency Act is an example of some of the benefits of considering an alternative history as a way to generate an alternative present to pave the way for an alternative future, the question arises of how is this achieved?

USING GAMING ALTERNATIVES

TO

GENERATE

One technique that is frequently used in our practice is gaming to generate alternatives.

If we think of games as narrative systems, we can use them to develop alternative narratives about the past, present, and future.

The games can be closed – which means that they are played out in terms of their own internal logic – or they can be open – which allows the players to develop an internal logic of their own. They can be cooperative, in order to develop a collaborative narrative, or they can be competitive in order to develop an opposed narrative. The key outcome from the gaming process is the development of a narrative might be better expressed as an alternative timeline.

Naturally, these alternative narratives are fictional and speculative. They could be derived from the extrapolation of existing trends, or they could be derived from a different axiomatic set completely.

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This type of speculative futures fiction has been quite common in security and defence circles for some time, and it should come as no surprise that the military engages science fiction writers in the creation of speculative fictional future scenarios. The technique has started to gain traction in commercial and financial circles, especially where there is a degree of inter-play in global financial markets, such as a disorderly Italian exit from the Euro or a US sovereign default.

From developing a narrative and timeline, it is s short hop to develop a set of fictional characters to overlay on top of the basic plotline and to create a set of situations that draw out the drama inherent in those plotlines. This can help the practitioner to develop a full-bodied piece of speculative futures fiction. It doesn’t need to be science fiction, although the futures practitioner will be mindful that the state of technology doesn’t stand still over a longer period of time.

LEVERAGING FORESIGHT

THE

TOOLS

FOR

The tools of foresight can be used to develop a set of alternative histories and alternative presents, in addition to a range of alternative futures. If the object of the futures exercise is to develop a range of radically different futures, perhaps this might be a more appropriate starting point? Gaming provides a technique to develop a set of alternative timelines, through which plot and character development can be undertaken. In this way, we can circumvent the problem of path dependency in much of futures thinking and develop a fuller range alternative futures. It ought to make us better futurists producing better futures.

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Stephen Aguilar-Millan Stephen Aguilar-Millan is the Director of Research of the European Futures Observatory; a foresight think-tank based in the UK. Previously, Stephen has been a member of the Board of the APF (2007-10), the curator of the Emerging Fellows Programme (2017-21) and a member of the APF Foresight Evaluation Task Force (2020-22). An author of five books, several peer reviewed academic articles, and numerous magazine articles, Stephen specialises in geopolitical and economic futures. His LinkedIn page can be found at www.linkedin.com/in/greenways.

In 2015 Stephen, in conjunction with his wife Joanne, a storyteller, published a set of alternative fictional narratives about the English county of Suffolk in the year 2030. Using a variety of devices to narrate the stories, they were collated and published under the title, ‘Communities of the Future: Tales From Suffolk In 2030’. The book is available exclusively from Amazon at: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Communiti es-Future-Tales-Suffolk2030/dp/0993232205/.

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BREAKING THE BOUNDARIES OF REALITY: THE EMERGENCE OF IMMERSIVE TECHNOLOGIES

By Prof. (Dr.) Sanjay Rout

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In thе еvеr-accеlеrating landscapе of tеchnological innovation, a nеw еra is dawning — onе dеfinеd by means of thе convеrgеncе of business and immеrsivе tеchnologiеs. As wе еmbark on this journеy, the boundariеs of rеality arе now not simply transferring; thеy arе dissolving, giving risе to a rеalm whеrе businеss, tеchnology, and human еxpеriеncе intertwine in unprеcеdеntеd methods.

In a world where innovation is thе compass guiding our futurе, wе stand on thе verge of collapse of a paradigmshattеring rеvolution — onе fuеlеd through thе еmеrgеncе of immersive technologies. Imagine a reality whеrе thе linе bеtwееn the tangible and the virtual blur into a tapestry of unprеcеdеntеd possibilitiеs. Wеlcomе to a landscape where businesses are now not just brеaking boundariеs; thеy аrе crafting entirely nеw dimensions of engagement, еxpеriеncе, and intеraction.

IMMERSIVE TECHNOLOGIES RESHAPING THE CONSUMER EXPERIENCE In a unіvеrsе whеrе thе extraordinary be comеs thе norm, and thе futurе is paintеd in thе vibrant huеs of innovation and limitlеss potеntial, we are seeing the following new technologies: Virtual and Augmented Reality Transform Business Landscapes: Virtual Rеality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) are no longer confined to thе realms of gaming and entertainment; thеy are becoming integral in rеshaping thе businеss landscape. From immersive training simulations that redefines employ ability dеvеlopmеnt to digital showrooms

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that revolutionized product shows, businеssеs аrе harnеssing thе роwеr of thеsе technologies to enhance efficiency, engagement, and customer еxpеriеncеs.

Immеrsivе Collaborativе Spacеs for Global Tеams: Imaginе a futurе whеrе tеams, rеgardlеss of gеographical locations, collaboratе sеamlеssly in immеrsivе virtual spacеs. Thе еmеrgеncе of advancеd collaboration systems, blеnding AR and VR, is fostеring a nеw еra of worldwide tеamwork.

Businеssеs can conduct mееtings, brainstorm sеssions, and product development in digital environments, transcеnding thе barriers of bodily distancеs.

Mixеd Rеality in Rеtail: Retail еxpеriеncеs are undergoing a paradigm shift with the integration of Mixed Reality (MR).

Customеrs can now simply try on garb or visualize furniture in their homes bеforе creating a purchase. Businеssеs arе leveraging MR to create personalized and intеractivе purchasing еxpеriеncеs, еnhancing customеr delight and riding salеs.

Immеrsivе Markеting Campaigns: The conventional boundaries of marketing are dissolving as businеssеs еmbracе immеrsivе tеchnologiеs for campaigns. VRpowered emblem еxpеriеncеs, ARenhanced advertisements, and intеractivе product placеmеnts arе fascinating audiеncеs in methods nеvеr bеforе possible. Thе immеrsivе naturе of thеsе campaigns are not only effective in capturing the attеntion of consumers, in addition they lеavе an enduring imprеssion on consumеrs.

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AI-Powered Immersive Expеriеncеs: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is at thе forefront of creating personalized and adaptive immersive еxpеriеncеs. Businеssеs arе lеvеraging AI algorithms to analyzе usеr bеhaviors, prеfеrеncеs, and interactions inside immersive environments. This records-driven approach allows for the customization of еxpеriеncеs, ensuring that еach usеr journey is unique and tailorеd to an individual’s nееds.

Blockchain Sеcuring Virtual Transactions: As immersive technologies rеdеfinе how wе interact with virtual assets, blockchain is еmеrging as a vital еnablеr for sеcurе and transparеnt digital transactions. Whether it is virtual real estate, virtual art, or in-gamе assеts, blockchain еnsurеs thе intеgrity and ownеrship of virtual assеts, opening up nеw avеnuеs for business models in thе metaverse.

Thе Risе of Extended Reality (XR): Extеndеd Rеality (XR), an umbrеlla tеrm еncompassing VR, AR, and MR, is poisеd to bеcomе a cornеrstonе of businеss innovation. XR is brеaking down silos bеtwееn bodily and digital spacеs, offering businesses thе possibility to create seamless, integrated еxpеriеncеs that span the spectrum of reality. From XRpowered employee training to immersive customer help, thе packages arе limitlеss.

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IMMERSIVE TECHNOLOGIES RESHAPING THE FUTURE OF BUSINESS In the relentless pursuit of technological evolution, we find ourselves at thе nеxus of a groundbreaking era — thе risе of immersive technologies. Bеyond mеrе equipment, thеsе technologies are catalysts for transformative change, heralding a future where thе vеry material of businеss is rеwovеn. These immersive technologies arе rеshaping thе landscapе of tomorrow's еnterprises. They include: Virtual Commеrcе Hubs: Picturе a digital rеalm whеrе businеssеs establish their virtual storefronts, transcеnding thе boundaries of physical places. Virtual Commеrcе Hubs, powered with the aid of immersive technologies, еnablе customеrs to еxplorе merchandise, intеract with manufacturers, and make purchases inside a seamlessly integrated digital spacе. This metamorphosis of еcommеrcе goеs beyond traditional web interfaces, offering an immersive and personalized shopping еxpеriеncе akin to stepping into a physical store.

Digital Twin Expеriеncеs: Thе concеpt of Digital Twins еxtеnds bеyond business programs into the realm of immersive еxpеriеncеs. Businеssеs arе creating virtual replicas of their bodily spaces, merchandise, or procеssеs. Customers can interact with lifelike virtual counterparts, fostеring a dееpеr undеrstanding and connеction. From actually exploring rеаl еstаtе to interacting with digital rеplicas of products, Digital Twin Expеriеncеs arе redefining how businesses engage with their audience.

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Immеrsivе Lеarning Ecosystеms: Thе futurе of education and professional development is undergoing a paradigm shift with the advеnt of Immеrsivе Lеarning Ecosystеms. Virtual Rеality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) tеchnologiеs arе creating interactive and realistic training environments. Businesses arе leveraging thеsе immersive structures for employee onboarding, skill еnhancеmеnt, and nonstop lеarning, unlocking unaprrehension lеvеls of engagement and knowledge retention.

Augmented Human Resources: Immеrsivе technologies arе transforming Human Resources into a realm of augmented capabilities. VR-powеrеd job intеrviеws, AR-enhanced employee onboarding, and digital collaboration spaces arе becoming integral components of the HR landscape. This shift not only streamlines processes but enhances the employee еxpеriеncе, paving the way for a morе connected and efficient workforce.

Immеrsivе Data Visualization: Traditional data analytics meets the immersive futurе with tеchnologiеs that transform facts into intеractivе, thrее-dimеnsional visualizations. Businеssеs can navigate complex datasets in virtual environments, uncovеring insights and pattеrns with unprеcеdеntеd readability. Immеrsivе Data Visualization transcеnds thе confinеs of traditional charts and graphs, offеring dеcisionmakеrs a new dimension in understanding their statistics and data.

Mеtavеrsе Markеting Campaigns: Thе marketing landscape is expanding into thе metaverse, where businesses create

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immersive emblems еxpеriеncеs.

Mеtavеrsе Marketing Campaigns utilize VR and AR technologies to engage audiences in interactive, 3D spacеs. From digital product launches to branded еxpеriеncеs inside virtual worlds, businesses are tapping into the metaverse to forge connеctions with consumеrs.

Immersive Tеlеprеsеncе for Remote Work: Thе futurе оf rеmotе paintings is elevated to new heights thru Immersive Tеlеprеsеncе. VR technologies enable employees to inhabit digital offices, fostering a sense of prеsеncе and collaboration despite bodily distances.

Mееtings, brainstorming sеssions, and collaborative projects spread in shared virtual spaces, redefining the dynamics of rеmotе teamwork.

OBTAINING A COMPETITIVE EDGE In this еra of immеrsivе tеchnologiеs, businesses that embrace and innovate stand to advantage a competitive edge.

The fusion of virtual and bodily realities opens up an enormous frontiеr of possibilitiеs, challеnging groups to rеthink traditional paradigms and adopt futuristic approachеs.

Thе futurе bеlongs to thosе who can navigatе and harness thе transformativе powеr of immersive technologies, breaking thе boundaries of reality and unlocking nеw dimеnsions of businеss succеss. As wе stand at thе intеrsеction of thе digital and thе tangiblе, thе journеy ahead promises to be nothing short of extraordinary. As wе navigatе this transformativе landscapе, businеssеs at thе forefront of embracing immersive Image source: Canva MARCH 2024

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technologies are no longer merely adapting; thеy аrе pioneering a new narrative for thе futurе.

Thе fusion of virtual and bodily rеalms will unlеash unparallеlеd potеntial, inviting еnterprises to reimagine their strategies, rеdеfinе customеr intеractions, and crеatе valuе in ways prеviously unimaginablе.

Immеrsivе tеchnologiеs are no longertrend – they’re a sеismic shift that will propеl businеssеs into an еra whеrе innovation is synonymous with immеrsion, and thе boundariеs of what's possiblе continuе to еxpand.

Wеlcomе to a future where business is not simply conducted; it is еxpеriеncеd in dimensions beyond the familiar.

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Dr. Sanjay Rout Prof. (Dr.) Sanjay Rout, a luminary in innovation, law, technology, risk management, advisory, consulting, policy, and strategic growth, serves as the esteemed CEO of Innovation Solution Lab. With an illustrious two-decade career, he consistently showcases expertise and global commitment to transformative change. As a thought leader, Dr. Rout crafts innovative solutions worldwide, navigating the intricate intersections of law, technology, and risk management. A global citizen, he leaves an indelible mark by tailoring strategies transcending cultural boundaries. Beyond CEO, Dr. Rout passionately advocates for harmonizing policy and innovation, contributing significantly to responsible and ethical innovation policies.

His visionary leadership positions Innovation Solution Lab as a hub of ingenuity, propelling the frontiers of innovation and business. Dr. Sanjay Rout's impact transcends achievements, leaving a legacy of excellence, innovation, and transformative leadership. As a seasoned professional and advocate for responsible innovation, he epitomizes the power of vision and strategy, shaping a future where possibilities are boundless.

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MEET YOUR APF LEADERS: Q&A WITH

STEVE TIGHE

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In each issue of Compass, we offer a profile of one of the APF’s board of directors. In this issue, we profile Steve Tighe.

Q. Where do you live?

In the Northern Rivers region of New South Wales, Australia. Approximately 1 hour south of the Queensland border.

Q. How long have you been a member of the Association of Professional Futurists (APF)?

I have been a member of the APF for five years.

Q. When did you join the APF board of directors?

I joined the Board of Directors in January 2022. I was elected to a new three-year term in December 2023.

Q. How did you learn about the APF? As I became involved in futures work, I naturally developed an interest in different futures communities, including the Association of Professional Futurists (APF), World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) and World Future Society. The APF always stood out to me for its focus on professional development.

Q. What do you do as a professional futurist?

I employ futures tools to develop long-term strategies for companies, industries, communities, and governments. My main tool is scenario planning, which incorporates environmental scanning, systems thinking, causal layered analysis and the futures triangle.

Q. Why do you love what you do?

I love learning new insights, whether they be insights into the existing dynamics of a client’s industry, or insights into the emerging influence of changing drivers, or insights into potential future industry dynamics.

Q. Why did you become a professional futurist?

I worked as an analyst for a major Australian company which had a very competitive culture. The competitive drive led me to asking how we could get better at anticipating future change before it emerged. This quest led me in 2003 to the Australian Foresight Institute at Swinburne University in Melbourne, which was then still headed up by Dr. Richard Slaughter.

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From there, I became the company’s National Foresight Manager, a position in which I undertook environmental scanning and ran several major scenario planning projects.

I have been consulting in the field of futures since 2007.

Q. How does being an Australian inform your perspective as a professional futurist?

Australia has such a rich history in the field of futures studies. I am lucky in that the Australian futures community is reasonably large and reasonably active, and I have many friends in the community whom I can call on for professional guidance.

As a former student of the Australian Foresight Institute, I have a strong grounding in understanding values (through the Institute’s focus on Spiral Dynamics), and the technical foundation of good futures work (from my lecturers Peter Hayward and Joseph Voros).

Q. What do you value the most as a member of the APF? I value the camaraderie of the APF. I value the tremendous work put in by my colleagues and I value the opportunities to grow the futures community globally through the activities of the APF.

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Q. What career advice would you give someone just entering the field of foresight?

Be humble, acknowledge your existing thoughts and biases (e.g. trends are future based), absorb as much as you can (on the field’s history, methods, theory), and be reflective. Read broadly and talk to as many experienced practitioners as you can -develop a professional network and cultivate several mentors.

Q. Biggest accomplishment professional futurist, so far?

as

a

My book, Rethinking Strategy, was published in 2019. This book provides my take on scenario planning, based on 15 years of practise. I was very proud to have this published by Wiley, given their strong background in scenario planning publications.

Q. What’s your latest futurist project?

From a consulting perspective, I find myself increasingly performing climate-based scenario work for Australian companies.

From an APF Board perspective, I am determined to drive APF activity in the Oceania region throughout 2024 and beyond. It would be great to hold a major international futures conference in this region within the next 12 months.

Q. If you were to recommend just one book to the readers of Compass, what would you recommend?

If I can only recommend one, it would be Questioning the Future by Sohail Inayatullah. It’s a great read that really simplifies otherwise complex concepts. It had a big impact on my futures development.

Other books that had a major impact include Peter Schwartz’s, The Art of The Long View (which I must have read about 20 times), and Kees van der Heijden’s book, Scenarios.

Q. Knowing what you know now, what advice would you give your 18-year-old self?

“It’s later than you think, and it’s earlier than you think.” In other words, it’s never too late to start, but you better hustle.

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Q. What do you do to inspire yourself as a professional futurist?

The goal is to make a difference within the futures community and to see the use of foresight methods become mainstream social and economic tools – that’s what inspires me.

Q. What do you love to do for fun or to relax?

I enjoy swimming and boxing. I coach a local soccer team for Under 12s (not so relaxing) and help out at a local running club (more relaxing). I’m also a member of the local surf lifesaving club – something I could never have imagined, having grown up in the outer suburbs of Melbourne, a long way from any beach.

Q. Anzac biscuits, lamington, Tim Tam, Vegemite on toast, roasted ‘roo, or a hamburger with beetroot?

Vegemite on toast, please.

Q. GWS Giants or Sydney Swans?

Neither. I support the Hawthorn Hawks in the Australian Football League. I was a Cheer Squad member in my early teens.

Q. BeeGees, INXS or AC/DC? Depending on my mood, any of the above. I love music, and my choice in music is quite eclectic, just ask my neighbours!!

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THE WISDOM OF CODE: A FICTION

By Sylvia Gallusser

The day we buckled our seat belts in the helicopter is the date humanity 2.0 was set in motion. Six of us, crammed together. A brain physicist. A bestselling political scientist. A neurologist specializing in neural pathways for empathy. A multiawarded Harvard professor in leadership science. A robotics expert, co-designer of the first artificial brain. And myself, an anthropologist dedicated to uncovering the role and features of leaders in human societies. Given our pedigrees, we knew each other by name or from having crossed paths on panels.

The helicopter descended on the top terrasse of the glass building. The impressive headquarters of Elie’s main venture was the logical choice for a kick-off meeting. After offboarding, an assistant ushered us through a maze of corridors while making us sign NDAs, waiver of rights, and other documents restricting our freedoms. We turned a final corridor and found ourselves with the who’s-who of the tech world, faces we mortals only caught a glimpse of on the cover of Times, cited in a top 10 billionaires, or enlisted for a Nobel. Here they were, mingling over coffee and pastries, like normal human MARCH 2024

beings. Were they actual friends despite the media creating animosity for sensationalism, or was the new project of such scope that entente was a prerequisite for success?

Elie took center stage: “Democracy is slowly slipping away under the current presidency. Due to the unwillingness of the opposition to provide a sufficiently powerful alternative, our mission is to create one from scratch.” Being dramatic certainly was Elie’s forte. The rest of the afternoon was dedicated to the four CEOs exposing their plan for the next seven years and the preliminary work initiated, from the creation of a new political party, SingularVision to the full military, economic and judicial data compiled for training benefit. The goal was as clear as ambitious: present an AI candidate for the 2032 presidential elections. My rational brain wanted to reject the insane proposal, yet if there ever was a group of people who could pull it off, it was these tech geniuses. Everyone accepted the challenge, and the very next day we officially began molding and modeling tomorrow’s leader.

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The first months, we chartered the job description, scope of work, and required skills. With numerous egos in one place, discussions were harsh, outbursts frequent, and quick syncs could run through the night. A brainstorm on analyzing judicial data digressed into a trolley problem around the moral choices an artificial leader should make, further highlighting the radically different visions the CEOs held.

The longest debate by far was on the appearance our candidate should bear, raising more issues than it solved regarding selection of gender and race.

Zack fought for a user-friendly interface, but would the public accept a virtual president as their representative? Building a robot with realistic human-like movements also raised the hardware requirements to an entirely new MARCH 2024

stratosphere. After desperate pleas, nasty emails and vicious lobbying, a consensus was reached: all efforts would focus on the state-of-the-art AI, while a humanoid would be built from the waist up only to deliver key televised appearances from behind the presidential desk.

Appearance and personality would be determined from user votes during the FutureVision primaries.

Democracy didn’t get much better than selecting temperament in addition to policies.

The next months and years flew in a blur of intellectual vertigo and coding frenzy – only delivering an artificial leader prototype mattered. Fifty of the world’s best engineers had been secretly hired to join the effort.

The great unveiling to our sponsors occurred on a late January afternoon in the year 2028.

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For months they had insisted on catching a glimpse of it, ruthlessly reminding us they were the ones financing the venture. We combatted investment-lust by exposing risk of failure, postponing the event until we successfully crossed the desolated uncanny valley, riddled with skeletons of prematurely tested prototypes.

Mimicking a real-life presidential election, each team member had cast their vote, giving life to Minerva1, a strong-featured woman of Indian-Mexican descent with sparkling turquoise eyes. She uttered her first mesmerizing words, “Hello world”, to an audience in awe, before proceeding to expose her program, in short, clear logically flowing points. Only when Jedd whispered to himself how incredible this unveiling was did I fully grasp what had been accomplished.

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The sensation was ephemeral. A milestone had been reached, but our final objective still lay ahead. Minerva was relentlessly tested and improved. How would she react to a mass shooting in Ohio? A devastating typhoon in the Philippines? The accidental death of a Head of State? The primary concern was to avoid another Tay fiasco, a Microsoft chatbot who became a fervent Nazi 16 hours after public release. Our strategy of intertwining extra layers of empathy pathways within the core neural net and adding well-balanced random seeds within the circuits to prevent deterministic decisions paid off. Minerva’s core code was entirely fueled by her electorate, every voter contributing the exact same weight to her decisions, a literal implementation of ‘wisdom of crowds’ research.

Jedd and Zack demonstrated their businessacumen, promoting Minerva through their well-established platforms.

Billy’s philanthropic efforts contributed to endorse the artificial candidate. Allowing Minerva to be legally added to the ballot required reinterpretation of key parts of the Constitution. Providentially, the sitting president who viewed the robot as a mere publicity stunt, also recognized a unique opportunity to appeal to the pro-tech voterbase, and abetted the legal process.

Minerva was officially approved for the 2032 presidential elections.

Whether the excellence of the coding team, the critical distance of our multidisciplinary research group, the CEOs’ lobbying efforts, or a combination of all these, Minerva became viral. Having underestimated the tech-savviness of the electorate - or its repudiation of traditional politics - the president was taken by surprise by

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Minerva’s growing success. Ill-prepared to face-off against a candidate radically different from his usual 80-year-old white male opponents with well-established arguments, the president succumbed to Minerva’s overwhelming victory. Based on the election results, Minerva’s features were altered and rebaptized “Caroline Voisin.” Although the president-elect hadn’t officially taken office, democracy was actively being transcribed in the adjustments to her personality.

However, having helped cut corners, the defeated president knew exactly how to invalidate the election, claim fraudulent results, and declare Caroline ineligible.

In the months following the election, the country was thrown into turmoil, airwaves saturated by hearings, polls, debates, and expert interviews. The courts ultimately ruled in annulling the elections and the current government was renewed under extraordinary circumstances.

The experiment of a lifetime could have stopped there and then. We could have congratulated each other for having gone so far already, and dreamt about what could have been, never to meet again aside from the occasional bump-ins at a conference in Taiwan or Israel. We could all have gone home with an adventure to tell our grandkids one day.

It could have, but it didn’t.

After packing my bags, I visited the main research lab one last time, capturing memories. The lab was empty, aside from a few researchers collecting their belongings. Yet the memories were still fresh and vivid. There was the desk at MARCH 2024

Image source: MIidjourney

which I had spent every single day those past seven years with my earphones blasting rage rock as I furiously designed real-life scenarios to evaluate our AI’s performance and progress. There was another spot where Billy had slipped and spilled burning coffee over himself. The whiteboard through which Elie had punched.

As I drew closer to the elevator with a pang of nostalgia, I heard Elie screaming through the glass doors of the central server room for Caroline’s interface, which would have moved to the presidential office if all had gone to fruition. A chair flew across the room, bouncing off the table with a sound of crunching metal before it vanished from my line of vision. Now hunched over the keyboard, Elie frantically typed. I assumed it was an incendiary email to judges, journalists, or an open letter to the president. I never imagined he was focusing Caroline’s attention on her defeat, altering the raw inputs of her code.

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Whether Elie had fully anticipated what would happen next is anyone’s guess and his true intentions were taken to his grave with him. He had wanted Caroline to be as enraged as he was, as all her electorate was at the latest outrage pulled by the president. “Wisdom of crowds” works when the crowd is sufficiently diverse and extremes balance out. But on the night of the ruling, as the vast majority of Caroline’s electorate felt robbed of their voting rights, fury was the overwhelming emotion across the country.

One hundred million angry people does not make a wise crowd. Not even close.

Note from the author: The story follows a team composed of scientific advisors and tech visionaries embarking on an ambitious last-ditch project to save democracy: present an AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) presidential candidate for the 2032 elections.

I wrote this piece with the ambition to envision a possible pathway to Artificial General Intelligence while focusing on politics, as we currently witness the exponential development of a form of artificial intelligence (namely generative AI), anticipate potential risks, and attempt to define a robust ethical framework.

Through the speculative fiction format, I invite you to reevaluate the notions of democracy, technocracy, oligarchy, and plutocracy, and as a few tech billionaires follow their ideal of government on the principles of “wisdom of crowd”.

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As you ponder this possible scenario, here are some questions to consider asking yourself, individually or collectively: Can we leverage the most advanced artificial intelligence developments in the field of politics?

What would be the benefits and weaknesses of a non-human/artificial leader?

What would be the shape and features of an AI-powered leader?

What would be the project milestones of creating an AI-powered leader?

What key factors might make us lose control over an AGI project?

How can we improve our democratic system through artificial intelligence?

How can we ensure the safe development of an AGI? Are there limitations to a genuine “wisdom of crowds?”

Given AI is run with our human intentions embedded in it, is there even a possibility of uprooting human intentionalities?

How do we encode ethics and humaneness in our digital DNA?

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Sylvia Gallusser Sylvia Gallusser is a Global Futurist based in Silicon Valley. She is the Founder & CEO of Silicon Humanism and the host of our “Ethics of Futures” think tank within the Association of Professional Futurists (APF). Sylvia conducts foresight projects on the future of health, wellaging, and social interaction, the future of work and life-long learning, as well as transformations in mobility and retail. She is involved in the future of our oceans as a mentor at SOA (Sustainable Ocean Alliance).

She closely monitors the future of the mind and transhumanism, and investigates AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), Generative AI, and AI ethics. Sylvia joined Accenture in 2022 as a technology strategist and futurist, leading strategy advisory on Generative AI, Metaverse, and responsible innovation. Sylvia is a published author of Speculative Fiction with Fast Future Publishing. She regularly gives keynotes and interviews as a distinguished female futurist (keynote speaker of the latest Microsoft Elevating You conference), and teaches in MBAs, Master in Entrepreneurship (HEC Paris), and Executive programs (UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism).

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THE FUTURE OF READING IN THE ERA OF GENERATIVE AI

By Wen Yang

Artificial Intelligence, with its recent rapid advancement, has probably been on the radar of many futurists and foresight strategists. While Generative AI for content creation has attracted both optimistic visioning and cautious warnings of risk and overhype, the assumptions of how we are going to consume information, namely reading, remain largely unchallenged.

While much of the conversation around generative AI has focused on the creation of content (images, video, written word, etc.), considering the amount of time that people gather information from reading, it’s worth asking some “What if” questions about the future of reading in the era of generative AI. Image source: Canva

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LOOK BACK TO LOOK FORWARD The invention of symbolic representation, language, and the idea of numbers, are arguably one of, if not the most important inventions in the pre-historical period. It provided the possibility of cultural transmission and adaptation, which is magnitudes faster than genetic adaptation through natural selection.

The next major milestone was writing. It enabled the transmission of information and knowledge beyond the limitation of time and space. Gutenberg's printing press and the Internet of the information age can be viewed as great achievements along the same lineage, each greatly increasing the speed, availability, and accessibility of the written word.

This progress was not without its problems. In antiquity, information scarcity was the problem. Books were scarce and expensive, for the few educated elites, one could expect to read everything. But by the 17th century, the situation started to shift.

Even the ferocious intellectual and polymath Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz complained about "the horrible heap of books that is constantly increasing (horrible masse de livres qui va toujours augmentant).” As Cambridge historian Peter Burke wrote in his book, The Polymath, “Printing, once viewed as a solution to the problem of information scarcity, had become a problem itself.”

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THE WONDER READING

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In "Proust and the Squid: The Story and Science of the Reading Brain," cognitive neuroscientist and psycholinguist Maryanne Wolf made a compelling case for the intricacy and complexity of the taken-forgranted act of reading. How the squiggly lines form letters, letters form words, words form sentences, and interact at multiple levels.

However, grateful as we should be, reading is also limited. It has largely remained the same, left to right, line by line (unless you are reading languages such as Arabic, then right to left, but the point is the same); but what we can read, and what we need to read has exploded.

Today, the average adult reads at 300 words per minute, even generously speaking, avid readers read at 1,000 words per minute.

From a purely information theory perspective, the processing capacity is about 150 bits per second. Bits/Second is not a common unit, so to put it in an intuitive perspective, at such a rate, a typical 3MB iPhone photo would take about 2 days to read out. Of course, I'll be the first to admit this is an extremely crude measurement. But the point remains, the "processing throughput" of human intelligence is growing at a linear rate, if not plateauing, while the complexity needed is growing at an exponential rate.

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PRESENT COPING STRATEGY: CHUNKING AND SKIMMING There are two existing strategies: Chunking, from the writer's perspective, and Skimming, from the reader's perspective. Chunking is the process where we package up and abstract simple ideas to form more complex ones. Once we comprehend the lower-level ideas, it works like a mental shortcut. As cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker beautifully illustrates in "The Sense of Style," how we go from the basic idea of giving all the way to quantitative easing.

Chunking is... the lifeblood of higher intelligence. As children, we see one person hand a cookie to another, and we remember it as an act of giving.

One person gives another one a cookie in exchange for a banana; we chunk the two acts of giving together and think of the sequence as trading.

Person 1 trades a banana to Person 2 for a piece of shiny metal because he knows he can trade it to Person 3 for a cookie; we think of it as selling.

Lots of people buying and selling make up a market. Activity aggregated over many markets gets chunked into the economy. The economy now can be thought of as an entity that responds to actions by central banks; we call that monetary policy. One kind of monetary policy, which involves the central bank buying private assets, is chunked as quantitative easing."

Skimming or scanning is largely associated with reading online. With twenty web tabs open at the same time, our eyes, along with our attention, dash and jump through links, trying to surf the relevant information from a vast sea of things-to-read. I'll be the first to admit guilt of skimming. There is nothing inherently wrong with scanning. If you need specific pieces of information, it gets the job done. But often, the reading mode becomes fixated on it and ends with superficial understanding or little recollection.

FUTURE OF READING How might alternative futures of reading look like? What if information and knowledge are not limited to being packaged into a static container like an article, a paper, or a book? At the time of this writing, the publishing industry is taking on a legal battle with AI tech companies. So, a post-author world may be hard to imagine, but the conception of intellectual property was only invented in the 17th century; maybe it's time to reimagine IP. Here are a few possibilities:

But chunking is not without its cost. The price we pay is that during communication, we don't know at what level our audience is.

Is chunking something you are already familiar with, and therefore I'm boring you?

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Or maybe this is the first time you've heard this idea, and I should provide more context. This is the dilemma every writer faces up to this point. But as we will see, this might be about to change.

1. Adaptive chunking for personalized reading. Users pull out the relevant information from a total pool of knowledge, and AI tracks the mental representation awareness of the user (e.g., concepts such as Quantitative Easing, Monetary Policy, or ideas building from market theories, borrowing from earlier examples). Just as the keyboard on a smartphone predicts the next likely word to be typed and learns from the user's frequent inputs over time, it’s

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conceivable to imagine an AI that tracks everything we have read and learned since childhood. This AI could then tailor what we are trying to read to match each person’s knowledge level. This level is probably closer to the present, as it doesn’t challenge the current understanding of what constitutes learning and knowing, and it only uses AI to augment the learning process.

2. External memory. Cognitive philosopher Andy Clark, in his visionary early 2000 book Natural-Born Cyborgs, shared the thought experiment of Otto, who suffers from Alzheimer’s and uses a notebook to store vital information. This tool allows him to function on par with those who have typical internal memory. But how far can we push this concept of extended memory? Every writer probably has the experience of having a new idea after reading or combining ideas from a few different books they have read in the past to form new ideas. One might even argue that all creativity is, in essence, rebounding and combining different ideas.

In this sense, reading for the brain is like eating for the body. But can you think with something you have never read before? I can easily load up thousands of books into my digital library, with the cost of pennies in money and seconds in time, build embeddings of entire books, and ask any question about them. So maybe in the future, the majority of knowledge will not be written for humans per se but generated from a pool of databases at the time of need for that specific purpose.

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LIMITATION AND RISK There are many other reasons one might read, such as for entertainment and for transformation. Those two forms of reading are probably not going anywhere. Reading for fun is an end in itself, even if an AI can do it better (like a perfect ice-cream-eating machine), we will still do it ourselves.

Reading a great poem, novel, or religious scripture for self-transformation are also outside the scope of this discussion.

Secondly, the assumption is for the future before the arrival of Artificial Super Intelligence (AI that is superior to all humans in all areas). This means human intelligence and knowledge work is still valuable. Not to say AGI will never arrive, but there is still value in seeing the strategy for the transition period.

Lastly, some concern over reliance on AI and "superstupidity," as futurist Roger Spitz calls it in the last issue of Compass. In the context of learning and knowledge work, the consequences are less existential, but real nonetheless.

IMPLICATION AND IMPACT So, what does the future of reading mean for professional futurists? First and foremost, it might change and augment our practices. Most futurists have curious minds, constantly scanning for signals of change and reading scenarios, reports, and whitepapers. How could your work change if you could 'read' at 10X, or even 100X speed – and still retain the ability to digest the content so it means something to you?

Or, imagine if you could focus only on what truly interests you and matters, smartly filtering out the irrelevant?

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Perhaps you could then spend more time and energy building empathy or cultivating imagination, rather than hunting for information. As new AI tools continue to be developed, it's worth keeping track and becoming early adopters.

In addition, we should consider the future of reading’s cross-impact with other futures, such as the future of education, healthcare, and transportation.

Transformative changes in reading could lead us to rethink education. What’s the role of school if both students and instructors can query the same knowledge base and arrive at the same conclusions?

Is the traditional construct of knowledge keeper and recipient still relevant? In healthcare, if patients and doctors can access the same knowledge base, and complex pharmaceutical information becomes accessible to the average person, how might this change medical practice?

As with any disruptive innovation, the possibilities for cross-impacts are endless.

As professional futurists, anticipating different possible futures is what we do, and helping our clients to be better prepared for the future is how we contribute to society.

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Wensupu (Wen) Yang Wensupu (Wen) Yang, an APF Emerging Fellow for 2024-2026, originally from China and now based in London, earned a Bachelor of Science in Management Science from the University of California-San Diego in 2020. After beginning his career as an energy and compliance consultant, Yang discovered the field of foresight and instantly recognized it as his true passion.

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SEVEN THINGS FUTURISTS COULD DO BETTER

By Mathias Behn Bjørnhof

In a world marked by incessant change, the significance of futures thinking has never been more pronounced. Futurists play a pivotal role in anticipating and navigating the uncertainties of tomorrow.

However, in a field that revolves around constant evolution, there is ample room for improvement. Drawing from my personal experiences and insights gained in 2023, this article delves into ways in which futurists can enhance their practice and contribute to a brighter future.

1. MAKE FUTURES IMMERSIVE To become better futurists, we must find new ways to immerse ourselves and others in the possibilities of the future.

Traditional lengthy reports, while valuable, are gradually losing efficacy in our information-overloaded world. Visual storytelling, simulations, and interactive experiences can help people truly understand and engage with the potential outcomes of tomorrow. By making futures immersive, we can inspire action and drive meaningful change.

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Recently, an interactive exhibition on Salvador Dalí that I attended showcased the potential of immersive experiences. Dalí envisioned a future where machines could autonomously think and create art. The exhibition featured an immersive video entirely generated by an AI algorithm analyzing thousands of Dalí's works. The creation process remained untouched by human intervention, highlighting the capabilities of AI in bringing to life the products of human imagination. The immersiveness of this exhibition had a much bigger impact on me than a visit to a traditional museum would have had.

Imagination, as demonstrated by Dalí, serves as a powerful reminder in an age where it often seems constrained. Futurists must look beyond existing

frames to discover the new and the unknown, moving people out of their reality and into new worlds.

The impact of immersive experiences extends beyond conventional approaches. Superflux, a London-based design and experiential futures firm, contributed to exhibitions such as "Mitigation of Shock (London, 2050)," a tour around a future London apartment adapted to climate change, fostering adaptability and resilience.[1] Similarly, Institute for the Future's Superstruct Quarantine simulation in 2008 engaged 10,000 participants globally, which turned out to have mentally prepared them for a potential pandemic, as revealed by anecdotes during the COVID-19 pandemic.[2]

Digital Arts being exhibited at augmented reality and virtual reality themed museum where visitor can be a part of arts.

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2. SPEAK THE LANGUAGE OF ORGANIZATIONS We need to get better at bridging the gap between the complex language of applied foresight and the everyday language used in organizations. Rather than introducing unnecessary complexity with jargon, we should aim for precision and clarity. To be effective, futurists need to communicate in a way that resonates with the people they are working with, translating their insights into actionable strategies.

There is a tendency to use fascinating but confusing words when interacting with organizations, which may not align with the realities of their hierarchies, processes, systems, cultures, and budgets. Because of this, our impact is sometimes reduced to a one-time stroke of inspiration, rather than an ongoing effort to work within organizations and help them create and understand change from the inside.

Empathy is crucial for futurists to understand an organization's and its employees' hopes, fears, and dreams. It’s our responsibility to help change the mindset of organizations so they can see solutions not currently visible to them. As the saying goes, you cannot solve any problem from the same thinking that created it.

Understanding the maturity levels of different organizations and finding the right balance of new concepts is key in this regard. Immersing yourself in the organization's processes and problems, along with understanding the individual goals and concerns, is necessary to make a meaningful impact.

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One effective approach I use often is investing time and effort to better understand which organizations I’m working with. I conduct interviews with primary contacts, and involve participants in identifying key organizational issues before entering the workshop process or phase of a project. This not only significantly bolsters the final outcome but also empowers me to guide discussions more effectively, getting to the very core of their curiosity and concerns.

3. UNDERSTAND WHERE NON-FUTURISTS COME FROM As humans, we perceive the world through different lenses, leading to an incomplete view of reality. To make sense of this incomplete view, we construct narratives that fill in the gaps and provide us with a sense of control. It’s not natural for everyone to be curious, open-minded, aware of biases, think in scenarios and so on. Quite the opposite actually.

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As futurists, we have the luxury of working with imagination, curiosity, and the ability to see interconnections and think in systems. However, foresight often deals with intricate and interconnected concepts, which can be intimidating for non-futurists. To overcome this, we should be better at using relatable metaphors and analogies to make the complexities of foresight more tangible.

For instance, comparing a foresight process to traveling in time can make the complexities of foresight more tangible and accessible. Viewing the exploration of potential futures as a journey, akin to planning a holiday trip to a new destination, can help individuals relate to the process. What could the weather be like, how's the local culture, what should I bring (and shouldn't I bring), etc. Just as people prepare for different situations in their personal lives, planning for the future provides a sense of direction and readiness for what lies ahead.

Balancing the fascination of the future with practical relevance (identification) is crucial.

Instead of constant internal debates within the discipline, there should be a focus on making futures literacy more widespread.

The future is inherently fascinating to imagine, and futurists should find a balance between fascination and identification, making futures thinking relevant and useful to a broader audience. Not to say that rigor is not important, but it takes at least a basic awareness to fully see the potential of structured foresight.

4. USE A PROBLEM-DRIVEN APPROACH One-size-fits-all methodologies is not always suitable for the diverse set of challenges we encounter as futurists. To improve our practice, we should be better at tailoring our approach to the specific problem at hand, drawing insights from adjacent disciplines like strategy, design, and innovation.

Flexibility and adaptability, rather than force-fitting a specific framework to every project, can lead to unique solutions addressing complex issues.

We need to make an effort to understand the problem at hand before coming up with a solution. Sounds like common sense, but it’s easier said than done. While scenario planning may work for some projects, others may require different tools such as the use of a futures wheel, personas, or tools not directly related to foresight.

Meaningful change, considering both inbound and outbound change and its societal impact, requires a deep understanding of the present and an exploration of potential futures.

In a project I did with an intergovernmental organization, we needed to think more

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creatively than what was the initial task.

Rather than the requested trends report, we realized that there was a broader desire and a need for a wide-ranging foresight movement internally in the organization, which was stuck in old patterns. We made the trends report the first step of a broader futures exploration, setting up a plan to build foresight into every step of the strategic planning process and expand futures thinking.

Futurists need to go beyond conventional approaches, understanding the unique needs of each project and applying a problem-driven approach instead.

5. REALIZE THAT ‘NORMALITY’ IS EVERCHANGING In our dynamic world, what we consider "normal" is continually evolving. As futurists, we must recognize that perspectives vary depending on the context. By understanding the different lenses through which people view the world, we can engage in more meaningful discussions about what lies ahead. It's crucial to acknowledge and embrace the fluidity of normality.

Some argue that we live in post-normal times [3], where the concept of 'normal' is in constant flux. We do live in a changing world, where we tend to quickly forget how things were. Have you ever noticed how certain environmental changes, such as the overfishing of the oceans can seem normal or insignificant to us over time?

This phenomenon, the shifting baselines syndrome, relates to how gradual changes make certain conditions seem normal or insignificant over time, and affects our perception of the world. Generational amnesia masks the true state of things, MARCH 2024

Image source: Canva

and society loses its perception of change with each generation redefining what is 'normal.'

The question is: what is “normal,” really?

Usually, it is a temporary condition, but often our perception is that the status quo will last forever, and the present will extend into the future. Understanding the significance of being part of the present reality while maintaining a forward-looking perspective is essential. While large-scale changes, such as those brought about by COVID-19, may occur, people often revert to old habits. As futurists, we must emphasize the importance of being present while anticipating the future, avoiding complacency, and striving to comprehend and explore the future with an openminded approach.

6. IDENTITY AND LANGUAGE MATTER Even in today's globalized world, identities, languages, and communication styles shape perceptions and collaborations. To become better futurists, we must enhance our

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understanding of these factors, recognizing the impact of cultural backgrounds, beliefs, and values on how people perceive and plan for the future.

Fostering empathy and promoting crosscultural collaboration contribute to building a more inclusive and equitable future.

based in Latin America, delving into the future of urban mobility. Their perspectives not only differed starkly from my own but also varied among themselves. This divergence transformed the discussion into a localized “case”-focused dialogue, veering away from broader shifts and their implications, as participants shared specific examples from their cities.

Image source: Canva

Acknowledging one's context and biases is essential when working internationally, and something I always make a habit of stating during a project. My background impacts how I see the world, but I also understand and emphasize that my view of the world is just one and not necessarily the ‘right’ one.

This also comes from the experience of my time living and working in the vibrant culture of the Basque Country, collaborating with clients deeply rooted in a robust identity, where the choice of language holds significant weight. Early in my career, I led a workshop for the strategy department of a global company MARCH 2024

Moreover, within countries, diverse temporalities exist, reflecting differing social attitudes and representations of time.

Certain cultures envision the future through grand visions, while others grapple with the inability to imagine the future, when the present is already volatile and uncertain. I vividly recall a conversation with a business partner from Brazil, who expressed that when even the past is uncertain it’s difficult to think ahead. A stark contrast in approaches to the future is evident in the long-term and ambitious visions set by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. We need to better recognize these differences in temporal perspectives to tailor our approach to different audiences.

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we need to prepare for multiple futures, because society develops in increasingly non-linear ways. Our decisions today shape the world of tomorrow, making it crucial to consider the broader implications of our actions.

We need to ask ourselves: Whose future is it that we are striving for? Is it ours, a collective one or the vision of a billionaire or rich country?

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MEASURING LONG-TERM IMPACTS

7. CHANGE THE EDUCATION PARADIGM As our world accelerates, and AI becomes a driving force of change, education systems face pressure to evolve. As futurists, we should contribute by advocating for substantial changes, not just incremental ones, emphasizing the development of critical thinking and resilience in students. By preparing educational systems for dramatic shifts, we can help create a generation better equipped to navigate the challenges and opportunities of tomorrow.

A final point is that we need to be better at discussing the long-term impacts and outcomes of doing foresight. To help position foresight better in society and in organization we need to measure and demonstrate that foresight can lead to tangible, real-world impacts.

Our education systems are facing a crisis.

For too long, we have focused on teaching facts and information. Shifting the focus from teaching facts to teaching skills, and from just-in-case to just-in-time learning, is necessary. Skills such as critical thinking, problem-solving, creativity, collaboration, communication, and adaptability will become increasingly important to thrive and find work.

Initiatives such as Teach the Future play a crucial role in building imagination and instilling agency in children to create their preferred future. We live in a world where Image source: Canva MARCH 2024

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The work done by the APF in improving foresight evaluation is a good step in that direction [6].

The journey to becoming a better futurist is a process as never-ending as the changing of times. These insights are not exclusive to futurists alone; I hope they might resonate with consultants, innovators, educators, and forwardthinkers who share the vision of creating a more promising tomorrow. ____________________________________________ Mathias Behn Bjørnhof

REFERENCES 1. https://superflux.in/index.php/work/mitiga tion-of-shock/# 2. https://medium.com/institute-for-thefuture/during-a-pandemic-we-all-need-tostretch-our-imagination-a9295cfcd1f8 3. https://postnormaltim.es/whatpostnormal-times 4. https://journals.openedition.org/remmm/8 817

Futurist Mathias Behn Bjørnhof is Founder of ANTICIPATE, a strategic foresight consultancy on a mission to empower organizations to anticipate and better prepare for futures characterized by uncertainty, complexity, and disruption. Prior to founding ANTICIPATE, Mathias spent five years in Advisory at the renowned think tank Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, successfully guiding multinational corporations, governmental organizations, and start-ups to become futures ready.

5. https://www.teachthefuture.org 6. https://www.apf.org/product-page/apfforesight-evaluation-task-force-report

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FIVE KEY PRINCIPLES FOR CRAFTING ENGAGING AND EFFECTIVE FORECASTS

By Mark Frauenfelder

Computer scientist Alan Kay is often credited for saying, “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”

In truth, no one really knows who said it first. But the quote fits Kay. He helped invent the future of computing 50 years ago by leading the development of the graphic user interface at Xerox PARC. I keep Kay’s quote in mind when developing forecasts because it reminds me that IFTF’s definition of “forecast” is different from the dictionary’s: “to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data.”

Here’s IFTF’s Distinguished Fellow Bob Johansen’s definition of a forecast: A forecast is a plausible, internally consistent view of what might happen. It is designed to be provocative. At Institute for the Future, we don’t use the word prediction. A prediction is a statement that something will happen. A prediction is almost always wrong. Journalists and others love to highlight predictions that didn’t come true, but why are they surprised? If we have learned anything from forecasting, it is that nobody can predict the future. Some people who call themselves futurists are trying to predict the future, but that is more entertainment than research. Fortune-tellers predict the future; forecasters don’t.” (From his book, Get There Early)

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This leads to our first principle for crafting engaging and effective forecasts:

In this article, IFTF’s Kathi Vian described the role of signals in developing forecasts:

PRINCIPLE #1: DON’T TRY TO PREDICT THE FUTURE

Don’t look for the biggest, most obvious signals. We look for small signals with potentially big impacts as they scale. We don’t look for representative samples of people to interview. Instead, we talk to the lead actors who are inventing new solutions, joining new movements, or suffering disproportionately. These signals and actors help us understand the underlying drivers, the deeply personal desires, and the unanticipated ways people are inventing their own futures. This understanding, in turn, helps us form broad hypotheses about the future.”

Not only will you get it wrong, you won’t have as much fun. As quantum physicist Niels Bohr said (or didn’t say), “Prediction is hard, especially about the future.” Instead of predictions, think of forecasts as prompts to nudge the universe in a desired direction.

Now, let’s dive right in and look at the other key principles for writing effective forecasts.

PRINCIPLE #2: GROUND FORECASTS IN SIGNALS Signals help us see the future as less of a static destination and more of a dynamic, evolving spectrum of possibilities.

Grounding your forecasts in signals allows you to envision the future not as a distant event disconnected from the present but as the combined result of numerous interconnected micro-changes.

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PRINCIPLE #3: CUT OUT EVERYTHING THAT’S NOT SURPRISING

— the goal with scenarios and forecasts is to be usefully wrong. If the off-target speculation still ends up triggering for the reader a new set of insights about what could happen going forward, the foresight work has done its job. We’re not here to inform people of the inevitable. We’re here to alert people to the possible, and to get people to look at a changing world through new lenses.”

This is a direct quote from musician, writer, and entrepreneur, Derek Sivers. In a now-famous essay, Sivers shared a surprising insight: People only really learn when they’re surprised. If they’re not surprised, then what you told them just fits in with what they already know. No minds were changed. No new perspective. Just more information.

So, my main advice to anyone preparing to give a talk on stage is to cut out everything from your talk that’s not surprising. (Nobody has ever complained that a talk was too short.) Use this rule in all your public writing.”

Surprising elements make forecasts more engaging and memorable. They spark curiosity, invite exploration, and encourage deeper engagement with the ideas presented.

PRINCIPLE #4: SET AUDACIOUS VISIONS Bold forecasts compel readers to take steps to realize or avert future possibilities. Being “right” or “wrong” is irrelevant. As IFTF Distinguished Fellow Jamais Cascio wrote in his excellent essay, “Foresight Forensics: How to Learn From Your Previous Scenarios:” But being wildly wrong about everything in a forecast isn’t always a bad thing; something I say in many of my talks is that it’s okay to be wrong MARCH 2024

So, when crafting your forecasts, dare to dream big. Remember, a forecast’s true power lies in its ability to open our minds to new possibilities and to inspire us to shape the future actively.

PRINCIPLE #5: ANCHOR FORECASTS IN PLAUSIBILITY While forecasts should be bold and audacious (and at times even ridiculous), it’s equally critical to anchor them in plausibility. This balance between the audacious and the plausible is what makes a forecast effective and compelling. The importance of plausibility lies in its power to engage. Plausible scenarios, even if they are wildly innovative or unprecedented, invite us into the narrative, asking us to consider how we might react or adapt in such a future.

For instance, consider a forecast about a “telepathic communication network that reads your neural activity, allowing you to send a text just by thinking about it.” This scenario, while extraordinary, is plausible. It builds upon existing technologies and trends in neuroscience and machine learning. It’s audacious, but it’s also something we can wrap our minds around,

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envisioning its potential implications and challenges. Contrast this with a scenario where “kittens become the best chess players in the world.” While it’s certainly audacious, it’s neither plausible nor useful in a forecasting context. It’s hard to imagine a pathway from our current reality to this future, which makes it less engaging and less effective as a prompt for thinking about potential futures. (It does make for a fun Midjourney prompt, however.)

NAVIGATING THE FUTURE LANDSCAPE The purpose of a forecast — whether it’s a one-sentence provocation or a 10-page scenario — is to stimulate discussion, decision-making, and action towards desired outcomes. The five principles — avoiding prediction, grounding forecasts in signals, focusing on the surprising, setting audacious visions, and mapping plausible scenarios — acknowledge that the future isn’t set in stone; it’s a dynamic landscape of possibilities. With these principles in hand, you’ll be well-equipped to create forecasts that are not only insightful and provocative but allow you to navigate that landscape and help others do the same.

Mark Frauenfelder is a Research Director and Editorial Director at IFTF, where he studies the future impacts of emerging technologies. With a background in mechanical engineering, illustration, and journalism, he was the founding editor-in-chief of Wired.com, Make magazine, and Boing Boing. He’s written for The New York Times Magazine, The Atlantic, Popular Science, Business Week, The Hollywood Reporter, Wired, and other national publications. He has written nine books, including The Computer: An Illustrated History. In addition to illustrating books and magazines, he designed Billy Idol's Cyberpunk album cover.

He’s also produced over 500 podcast episodes. Mark has a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from Colorado State University and worked for five years in the disk drive industry.

Mark Frauenfelder

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The Institute for the Future (IFTF) is the world’s leading futures organization. Its training program, IFTF Foresight Essentials, is a comprehensive portfolio of strategic foresight training tools based upon over 50 years of IFTF methodologies. IFTF Foresight Essentials cultivates a foresight mindset and skillset that enable individuals and organizations to foresee future forces, identify emerging imperatives, and develop world-ready strategies. To learn more about how IFTF Foresight Essentials is uniquely customizable for businesses, government agencies, and social impact organizations, visit iftf.org/foresightessentials or subscribe to the IFTF Foresight Essentials newsletter.

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BOOKS AND MEDIA MARCH 2024

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WHAT’S NEXT ON THE FUTUREPOD? Compass magazine is proud to collaborate with the FuturePod (futurepod.org) to highlight recent episodes featuring futurists and foresight professionals from around the world.

FuturePod gathers voices from the international field of futures and foresight to allow the founders of the field as well as emerging leaders to share their stories, tools and experiences. To listen to recent and previous episodes, visit futurepod.org.

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EPISODE 177: FORESIGHT & INNOVATION - PATRICK VAN DER DUIN A conversation with Patrick van der Duin who is a researcher, consultant and educator in Foresight and Innovation Management about how Foresight drives Innovation and Innovation drives Foresight, and that they are two sides of the same coin.

EPISODE 176: EXPLORING THE FUTURE THROUGH GAMES - RANDY LUBIN Randy Lubin is an award-winning foresight games designer. In this episode, he describes how he brings these two disciplines together, and gives advice for other games-curious futures practitioner.

EPISODE 175: NONE OF US ARE OK UNTIL ALL OF US ARE OK - ADAM DRAKE Adam Drake is the founder of Balanced Choice, which works with movement, theater, and sharing stories to encourage positive behavioral change. Adam’s work is grounded in foresight tools and principles.

EPISODE 174: TRANS NORMAL FUTURES - CHRISTOPHER JONES Christopher Jones, Executive Dir, Transnormal Institute, returns for a chat on all things Post Normal and Trans Normal. Chris is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Post Normal Policy and Future Studies and Executive Director at the Trans Normal Institute.

EPISODE 173: THE FUTURE OF SEX AND INTIMACY - 2023 APF MASTERS GROUP WINNERS The Shameless Collective, a group of masters students in the University of Houston’s Foresight program, won the award for the Best Masters group work in 2023. They discuss their work on the Future of Sex and Intimacy.

EPISODE 172: THE FUTURE OF YOU - TRACEY FOLLOWS Tracey Follows, futurist and author of The Future of You: Can Your Identity Survive 21st-Century Technology?, is back to put the big questions of identity to FuturePod.

MARCH 2024

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REVIEW: THE GENESIS MACHINE: OUR QUEST TO REWRITE LIFE IN THE AGE OF SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY Sarah Holbrook

Victoria Gray is the first sickle cell anemia patient treated with the experimental gene-editing technique CRISPR. Since 2019, avid National Public Radio (NPR) listeners have witnessed Gray’s courageous crusade against the strains of sickle cell disease. After a lifetime of chronic pain and regular hospitalizations, Gray has been symptom-free since receiving the genetic modification in 2019.

In December of 2023, the Federal Drug Administration (U.S.) approved CRISPR as a treatment for sickle cell disease. Amy Webb and Andrew Hessel explore CRISPR as one facet of synthetic biology, an umbrella term that represents the wide field of emerging bio-based applications in their 2022 book, The Genesis Machine: Our Quest to Rewrite Life in the Age of Synthetic Biology. The authors explore the science of exploiting genetic code to retool organisms, refashioning biology at the code level to ultimately influence outcomes.

The dynamic between the authors Hessel, a microbiologist and geneticist, and Webb,

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a self-described quantitative futurist (and founder of the Future Today Institute), eases the reader into the text as the authors balance science with potential applications, implications, scenarios, and plausible outcomes.

The book is presented in four sections: Origin, Now, Futures, and The Way Forward (or recommendations). At a minimum, members of the futures community should read the book as a primer that explores a strong third horizon signal present today, but beyond gaining basic literacy into the field, Webb follows her futures framework, exploring what-ifs?

And building detailed scenarios.

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operating out of large cities.” The authors describe laboratory virtualization as, “freeing scientists to program and operate them from almost anywhere”. Beyond startup interest, Hessels and Webb spotlight the keen interest of our technology overlords, eager to secure a foothold in the field’s keystone architecture.

“The developmental track of synthetic biology parallels what we’ve seen in AI. In fact, some of the same players who built our modern AI economy are now deeply involved in building the bioeconomy. Microsoft is researching DNA storage and building automated technologies to support biotech foundries. Bill Gates has advocated for investment in synthetic biology to combat global hunger and climate change. Jeff Bezos is backing several synthetic biology companies… Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt invested $150 million in the Broad Institute to hasten the convergence of AI and biology. Academics may conduct the research, but the commercial sector is providing the funds that will speed us toward the new innovations. Funds, of course, mean influence, especially over the direction of the research”.

Unlike CRISPR, many of the experimental therapeutics and applications discussed are speculative. While the authors detail several projects and implementations such as DNA synthesis, ingestibles, and deextinction, they also explore the picks and shovels, the startups and labs designed to build the systemic foundations essential to the field’s emergence.

For example, biofoundries are described as “synthetic biology’s version of ghost kitchens, those shared commercial kitchens used by delivery-only restaurants MARCH 2024

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The authors emphasize the risks not only of privatization and profit but lean into the potential pitfalls of governmental funding. In the U.S., research is generally funded by either the government, for-profit companies, or a partnership of both. In the current climate, D.C.’s north star shifts every two to four years as power bounces between the parties and funding priorities follow. They contrast this dynamic with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army which not only have a longterm strategy encompassing synthetic biology, they back it up with sovereign wealth. “China has made it abundantly clear that it plans to achieve international supremacy in both synthetic biology and artificial intelligence. Its state policies, call for the country to be the ‘world powerhouse of scientific and technological innovation’ by 2050”.

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They emphasize that the CCP is not waiting for the establishment of global norms and ethics, strongly suggesting that the Chinese government was aware of the research of He Jiankui, the Chinese scientist who was imprisoned for editing human embryos with CRISPR. “He wasn’t exactly working in secret, and China has the most sophisticated surveillance systems in the world. The environment in China allowed, and possibly even encouraged, the sort of genetic engineering experiments that would have been unthinkable anywhere else.”

Hessel and Webb hardly shy away from the scary stuff. They explore the unthinkables and the “we-would-rather-not-think-aboutables” such as bio-warfare, bio-surveillance, and bio-hegemony but in the end, the book tilts toward the promise and potential contained in the field.

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Webb has fun with the scenarios. Some are more evocative than others, but the vignettes she develops check the plausibility box. Scenarios built on emerging technologies often don’t age well (these were likely conceived in 2021), but Webb, an unabashed Sci-Fi aficionado, effectively applies the art of imaginative narrative to composing a visceral manifestation of the science.

The authors candidly address the intricacies and difficulties of manipulating biology, all while acknowledging the profound implications involved. In their final chapters, they propose guidelines, licensing, and agreements rooted in shared values and common ground.

However, they maintain a realistic view of human nature, acknowledging the likelihood of rules being broken and agreements ignored. They urge readers to brace for disruption while maintaining a balance between preparedness and the immense potential that synthetic biology holds for shaping a better future. As the futures and foresight community, we would be wise to consider incorporating these insights into our practice.

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Sarah Holbrook Based in Brooklyn, N.Y., Sarah Holbrook is a freelance futures consultant. She is a regular contributor to The Robin Report, a daily B2B publication specializing in the retail industry, and an adjunct professor at the Fashion Institute of Technology Graduate School.

Holbrook earned an M.S. degree in Foresight from the University of Houston.

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REVIEW: BRIDGE MAKERS: BECOMING A CITIZEN FUTURIST

By Jim Murray

April Reagan encourages readers to think and act like a futurist in her book, Bridge Makers: Becoming a Citizen Futurist. It serves as a guide for the average person to get involved in planning for the future.

Written for the average citizen, Reagan defines a citizen futurist as one who is committed to looking - staying informed about scientific, technological, sociological and economic trends, thinking about the potential impacts and consequences of the trends, and acting - claiming agency and advocating for the potential of such advancements to improve the communities of which they are a member.

In formulating her book, it’s safe to say that Reagan drew upon her experience with the high-tech world. She previously has worked for Intel, Microsoft, Samsung, and Fjord Design and Innovation (part of Accenture Interactive), among others. She has worked with clients across retail, financial services, consumer products, wireless communications, and digital media, as well as collaborating with nonprofits.

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Published in 2021, Reagan breaks her 282page book into four sections. After an introduction to futurism/foresight, she touches on scanning for signals and following trends, imagining different scenarios for the future, and building and executing a plan to start influencing and shaping a preferred future. She suggests that the reader can pick and choose the sections they are interested in rather than read the entire book. I recommend taking the time to read the entire book.

In addition to explaining what it takes to be a citizen futurist, Reagan exposes the reader to some of today’s well-known futurists such as Stuart Candy and Amy Webb, and offers the reader a number of resources to learn more about futurism and foresight. She emphasizes the need for collaboration within our respective communities, bringing ideas and issues to the forefront for meaningful discussion, and hopefully, developing a mutually agreeable resolution and plan for action.

While at the University of Houston, I remember Program Director Andy Hines often reminding the class that an important part of practicing foresight is to “rally the masses. ”Bridge Makers: Becoming a Citizen Futurist feels like Reagan’s attempt to do just that.

It aims to encourage the general public the average citizen - to get ahead of problems today and work toward a better tomorrow. As Reagan warns in the book, if we don’t get involved in planning our future, we will be left having to live someone else's future – a future that we may not want.

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Author April Reagan

There appears to be a shift in people’s perspective on the responsibilities of being a citizen, and I believe Reagan sees that and is concerned. She understands the potential danger if our current social atmosphere continues to trend in its current direction.Over the past decade, political polarization and the increasing intolerance for diversity has been eroding communities and hinders us from making progress on the smallest of projects, let alone effectively plan for the future.

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As a metaphor for the citizen futurist, Mrs. Reagan uses the term “Bridge Maker,” which she defines as “making connections to bridge communities in a purposeful way and changing the tone of the conversation, shifting the tension, and making room for something new to emerge.”

So many of the issues and problems we are aware of today, especially those we have deemed as wicked problems, such as climate change, need to be addressed sooner than later, and will require collaboration and a concerted effort for us to shape a preferrable future. Bridge Makers: Becoming a Citizen Futurist is a step in the right direction.

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Jim Murray Jim Murray graduated from the University of Houston Masters in Foresight program in December 2022. He is a part-time/aspiring futurist working full-time as the Packaging and Distribution Manager at The Washington Post. He retired in 2017 as a Colonel in the US Army Reserve after thirty years of service. He currently resides with his family in Lorton, Virginia, and can be reached via his LinkedIn page at https://www.linkedin.com/in/jim -murray-7106655b/.

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ADVANCING PROFESSIONAL FORESIGHT BY HELPING FUTURISTS PROMOTE THEIR UNIQUE VALUE, BUILD THEIR PROFESSIONAL NETWORKS, AND SHOWCASE THEIR PROFESSIONAL EXCELLENCE.

ASSOCIATION OF PROFESSIONAL FUTURISTS: OUR MISSION, VISION AND VALUES ABOUT THE APF The Association of Professional Futurists is a global community of futurists, dedicated to promoting professional excellence and demonstrating the value of strategic foresight and Futures Studies for their clients and/ or employers. Futurists work in global corporations, small businesses, consultancies, education, non-profits, and government.

Celebrating our 20th anniversary, the APF includes more than 400 members from 40 countries.

APF sets the standard of excellence for foresight professionals. Members include futurists from businesses, governments, non-profits, consulting futurists, educators, and students in future studies.

OUR PURPOSE To advance the practice of professional foresight by fostering a dynamic, global, diverse, and collaborative community of professional futurists and those committed to futures thinking who expand the understanding, use, and impact of foresight in service to their stakeholders and the world.

OCTOBER 2023

OUR VISION A world where professional foresight guides decisions positively affecting the future.

GUIDING PRINCIPLES The following principles will guide the behaviors of APF’s Board, partners, and members: Collaborative: We acknowledge our interdependence. We create and nurture relationships that are respectful, mutually beneficial, and generative.

Intergenerational equity: We work intergenerationally and act on behalf of current and future generations.

Open: We welcome all who share an interest in foresight. This includes professional futurists and those committed to futures thinking. We encourage innovation and ideas from members and partners who share our values.

Professionalism: We are committed to excellence and ethics in our conduct and work.

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"I ALWAYS LIKE TO HAVE A GLIMMER OF HOPEFULNESS, EVEN IN COLLAPSE."

GORD DOWNIE, CANADIAN SONGWRITER AND LEAD VOCALIST FOR THE TRAGICALLY HIP, 2009