WHERE THE EXPANSION IS HAPPENING AND WHO IS RESPONSIBLE

There is limited publicly available data regarding which companies are expanding and where plastic production is set to increase. However, recent analysis from the Minderoo Foundation shows that of the companies we examined for this report, Exxon, Shell, Saudi Aramco, Formosa and Borealis are among the top producers planning to add virgin polymer capacity between 2020 and 2025.217 According to the analysis, Exxon is one of three producers adding the most capacity, and Shell is notably expanding capacity at a rate of 145% over the same five-year period.

In terms of where in the world new plastic production facilities are likely to be built, we know that currently Asia, North America and Europe are the biggest producers; within Asia, China is the major player, producing an estimated 31% of the world’s plastics, according to PlasticsEurope.218

Data on future expansion is difficult to find, however projected ethylene production offers a reasonable proxy for future plastic expansion, and here data are available. Industry analysts identify India,219 North America, the Middle East, China and Southeast Asia220 as key regions looking to expand ethylene production capacity. Factors expected to drive expansion in these regions include cheap ethane (North America221 and the Middle East), low capital costs (China) and unmet demand for ethylene derivatives along with the desire to balance trade and generate employment (China, India and Southeast Asia). However, China and North America are expected to continue to be the largest drivers of global ethylene demand growth as they add production capacity for ethylene and derivatives.222