Bulletin vol 26 no 4 aug 2013

AMOS

AustralianMeteorological & OceanographicSociety

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society Vol 26, No.4, August 2013 ISSN 1035-6576

Editorial

A circumhorizontal arc and cyclone reconnaissance missions I have a couple of items for this month’s editorial. The first is a correction for a previous issue of BAMOS and the second relates to an interesting article on the use of aircraft for reconnaissance missions into tropical cyclones that may be of interest to readers.

Firstly in regard to the correction—I received an email back in April from AMOS member John Zillman about the fantastic photograph on the cover of the February 2013 issue of BAMOS (see Figure 1 below). The caption in the February issue describes the phenomenon as a ‘glaciation rainbow’; however, John informed me that this was unlikely to be the case. If it were indeed a rainbow then the sun would need to be behind the photographer, which it was not. Instead John suggested that it was an optical feature that is rarely captured on camera—a circumhorizontal arc (CHA).

Formally, a CHA is a type of optical phenomenon, which is caused by the refraction of light through plate-shaped (usually hexagonal) ice crystals that are suspended in the atmosphere. The light needs to pass through the side face of the plate before leaving through the lower base (see Figure 2). In order for a CHA to be visible the light source needs to be more than 57.8° above the horizon (A in Figure 2) and consequently at a low solar (or lunar—if the light reflected from the moon is strong enough) zenith angle (B in Figure 2). Such an arc therefore, cannot be caused by sunlight polewards of approximately ±56° latitude, as the sun never reaches the required zenith angle (although the moon may be able to).

The image captured by AMOS member John Allen (Figure 1) was taken at 1:30 p.m. on 27 November 2012 in Nurmurkah (Victoria), which is at approximately 36°S. Therefore the solar zenith angle would have been less than the required 32.2°, which suggests that the phenomenon in Figure 1 was a CHA. John (Allen) agreed that it was almost certainly a CHA after I contacted him to get his opinion.

So, I offer a correction to the caption for the front cover of the February 2013 issue of BAMOS from a ‘glaciation rainbow’ to the more extraordinary circumhorizontal arc, of which the photograph is a stunning example. More information on and images of these arcs can be found online1 with another fantastic image published on the front cover of the Royal Meteorological Society’s Weather magazine taken by the former Australian Minister for Science Barry O. Jones (Jones, 1987).

The second item I would also like to draw readers attention to is an interesting article entitled, “The History of Australian Weather and Cyclone Reconnaissance Aircraft: Australia’s Cyclone Hunters”. This is a 14-page document2 written by David Reade and describes in detail the development of 1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circumhorizontal_arc

2

http://p-3publications.com/PDF/CycloneHunters.pdf

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 57

tropical cyclone reconnaissance missions in Australia. It documents the loss of life associated with severe storms and tropical cyclones during the Second World War before discussing the fascinating events of the actual flights into the cyclones themselves. There is also an interesting section on the use of these missions for forecasts during the Royal visits of 1954 and 1963 followed by a discussion of the response of the government to the terrible events of Cyclone Tracy in 1974. I would recommend this piece as an interesting read, especially to aviation and tropical cyclone enthusiasts— it can be found on the link below.

Figure 1: A circumhorizontal arc taken at Nurmurkah, Victoria, 27 November 2012 at 1:30 p.m. Image: John Allen.

Light ray path

zenith Ice crystal B

horizon

A

Figure 2: A schematic diagram adapted from Figure 5.10C of Lynch and Livingston (1995) showing the path of light (yellow arrows) through a plate shaped ice crystal in order to form the arc in Figure 1. A is the angle of the light source above the local horizon and B is the local solar (or lunar) zenith angle.

Jones, B.O., 1987, Circumhorizontal arc, Weather, 42, 352–353. doi: 10.1002/j.1477-8696.1987.tb04871.x Lynch, D.K. and Livingston W., 1995, Color and light in nature, Cambridge University Press, 277pp.

Duncan Ackerley

President’s Column

Strategic plan and key events After a long period of discussion, Council has agreed to a new vision statement and set of strategic priorities for AMOS. This is covered by a separate article in this Bulletin (see page 70 of this issue—Ed.) so I won’t repeat it in too much detail here. I would like to thank everyone who has contributed to the discussion for their role in making this happen. The next step will be to develop an implementation plan for the ideas which came up as a result of the process (to work out where to find the money to pay for them), something which will keep us busy through the remainder of this year.

The National Conference will continue to be a key aspect of our activities. Planning has been continuing for future conferences. I have already given a few mentions to the 2014 National Conference in Hobart, for which progress continues to be made—the conference web page is now up on the AMOS website and the call for papers will have come by the time you read this. Looking further ahead, we are already starting to look at initial options for the 2015 Conference in Brisbane. The 2015 Conference will be held mid-year, which is a little different for us (the last time was in 2004, also in Brisbane) and will hopefully give an opportunity for operational people to attend who are often overwhelmed with severe weather events in January and February.

An event coming up rather sooner than February 2014 is the federal election. In the run-up to this, some of you will have heard that the Australian Research Alliance has been founded, to campaign for all parties to commit themselves to non-partisan support for science and all forms of research. Science and Technology Australia,

News

of which we are a member, is one of the co-sponsors of the Alliance (along with bodies such as the Australian Academy of Science, the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, and Universities Australia). This is the type of lobbying where a body such as Science and Technology Australia has much more clout than we could hope to have ourselves, and is one of the key benefits of our involvement with them. One specific angle we explored with Science and Technology Australia was to seek commitments from all sides to supporting Australian climate science, but their advice, which I think is reasonable, was that doing so risked making the science even more of a political football than it already is.

As some of you will know, I’ve been getting around a fair bit lately, part of which has been seeing a lot of places where observations are made. Observations are fundamental to the sciences covered by AMOS—whether on land, in the ocean, or through various forms of remote sensing—but often lack political visibility which can make them vulnerable when budgets are under pressure.

This has been demonstrated, most recently, by the doubt cast on future satellite programs, whose data are used worldwide, by budgetary problems in the United States.

The importance of good observations was something we pushed strongly in our submission to the Senate inquiry into extreme weather events1, which was released on 7 August 2013.

Blair Trewin 1 http://www.aph.gov.au/parliamentary_business/committees/ senate_committees?url=ec_ctte/completed_inquiries/2010-13/extreme_ weather/report/index.htm

CSIRO Media release Sarah Schofield

CSIRO Communication Advisor

A world of ocean research awaits RV Investigator!

Just over a year ago construction of Australia’s Marine National Facility research vessel Investigator began with flat sheets of steel, and now the blue-water research vessel looks amazing.

To celebrate World Oceans Day on 8 June, we’re releasing the time lapse of the construction of Investigator.

The Executive Director for CSIRO’s Future Research Vessel Project, Toni Moate, said Investigator, is challenging the way ocean and atmospheric research has been undertaken globally, as it will support scientists across a range of disciplines—oceanographic, climate, geological, fisheries and ecosystem research.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 58

“As much as possible, Investigator must be all things to all Australian marine scientists, as Australia has only one blue-water research vessel and this diverse and complex approach to marine and atmospheric science is unique to ocean research globally,” Ms Moate said.

The 93.9 m Investigator has room onboard for up to 40 scientists, who can stay at sea for up to 60 days and cover up to 10,000 nautical miles in a single voyage. The Investigator will replace the Marine National Facility’s current vessel, Southern Surveyor, later this year when it’s delivered to Hobart.

The contract to design, build and commission the vessel was awarded to Teekay Holdings Australia, which partnered with Sembawang Shipyard Pte Ltd in Singapore

because of its track record and strong commitment to new technologies and innovation.

“Investigator’s capabilities will allow for the rapid advancement of ocean dynamics and air-sea interactions and their implications for weather and climate, and scientists will be able to accurately describe marine ecosystems and enable more effective management of biodiversity and fisheries,” Ms Moate said.

The vessel’s design will feature a core backbone of permanently fitted systems for sampling, data acquisition, management, and communication including winches, acoustic mapping and environmental monitoring instruments including: •

A sonar and radar system housed under the ship that can map the seafloor to 7,000 m.

•

A deep water coring capability off the side deck which can take cores 24 m long at a depth of 7,000 m.

•

The ~2 tonne radar will gather data from storms and clouds towering 20 km over the tropical ocean to cold ice storms in the Antarctic, in a 300 km diameter around the ship, and it will have a broad range of research applications.

•

The dual drop keels can deploy scientific equipment 4 m below the vessel’s hull, enabling acoustic instruments to be well below the bubble zone generated by the ship moving through the water.

•

The ship is being built to comply with DNV-Silent-R, to minimise the noise from all the machinery on board. This will increase the range and resolution of

seabed mapping, sub-surface imaging, and marine ecosystem monitoring instruments and it will allow scientists to provide better estimates of the number of fish and other species in the marine environment.

•

Research teams will be able to add purpose-built systems to support their own investigations, such as radiation and trace metal laboratories, deepwater dredging, coring and drilling devices, fishing nets, towed camera systems and remotely operated vehicles.

In 2009 the Australian Government committed AU$120 million to the purchase of a new research vessel for the Marine National Facility. The project is an initiative of the Australian Government being conducted as part of the Super Science Initiative and financed from the Education Investment Fund.

Sea time onboard Australia’s Marine National Facility research vessel is available to all Australian scientists. The National Facility is operated by CSIRO on behalf of the nation.

Time lapse footage of the construction is now available: •

Time lapse of Investigator can be viewed in low resolution at: http://youtu.be/Z58Arp5q3Hs

•

High-resolution, broadcast quality time lapse of Investigator can be downloaded via dropbox upon request.

It is hoped that a visit to Investigator will be available for members aas part of the 2014 National Conference—Ed.

International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS) News Charmaine Franklin1 and Tom Beer2 CSIRO, Aspendale National IAMAS Correspondant

1 2

ICCP Workshop on Measurement Problems in Ice Clouds

2. Contrails and contrail impact on cirrus formation

The first International Commission on Clouds and Precipitation (ICCP) workshop on cloud microphysics saw 50 participants from 9 countries convene at ETH Zurich from 5-6 July 2013. The workshop brought together three cloud microphysics communities (in situ, remote sensing and modelling) to identify the critical, unsolved scientific questions related to the formation and evolution of ice in clouds. Each topic was addressed by a presentation and working group discussion and the outcomes of these activities will be expanded into an American Meteorological Society (AMS) monograph to be published in early 2014. The topics covered at the workshop were:

4. Ice fog formation, evolution and climatic impact

Science topics: 1. Cirrus formation, evolution and impact on climate Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 59

3. Mixed phase clouds and glaciation 5. Precipitation formation and evolution from ice processes Measurement topics: 1. Ice/liquid partitioning in mixed phase clouds 2. Properties of ice particles 3. Composition of ice nuclei 4. Calibration techniques and standards; measurement inferences 5. New sensors, platforms and analysis techniques; integrated measurement systems The topics each had three co-leaders with expertise in in-situ, remote sensing and modelling of ice clouds.

Prior to the workshop the co-leaders took material from contributing participants and prepared summaries of the uncertainties of different measurement techniques and assessed potential approaches to minimise measurement limitations. Working groups formulated priorities for advancing our understanding of issues related to ice in clouds and precipitation. The workshop was broadcast live on Webex and the presentations are available on the ICCP website http://www.iccp-iamas.org Two issues that were raised by many of the working groups as key challenges are the lack of knowledge surrounding ice nucleation and the uncertainties of ice crystal measurements due to the effects of ice particles shattering on airborne in-situ probes. A subset of the key recommendations from the workshop is to focus future

research and measurement development efforts in these areas.

An important aspect of the workshop was the sponsorship and involvement of twelve graduate students. The students acted as rapporteurs and had the responsibilities of working with the topic co-leaders to summarise conclusions and prioritise unknowns, and presenting these conclusions during the plenary session. The rapporteurs will be coauthors of the chapter in the monograph devoted to the topic they reported on. The workshop organiser Darrel Baumgardner is to be commended for his efforts in organising a very successful workshop that saw a high degree of interaction and active participation from all who were part of the event.

Nominations are now called for the 2013 AMOS Medal and Christopher Taylor award Mark Williams

Chair, AMOS Awards Committee Address for nominations and correspondence: mmw@internode.on.net

The Priestley Medal The Priestley Medal and the AMOS Medal are the two premier awards given by the Society and are awarded in alternate years.

The Priestley Medal commemorates the life-long contributions of Dr C. H. B. Priestley to meteorological and oceanographic research, and is aimed at younger scientists, preferably under the age of 40, for personal excellence in meteorological, oceanographic or climate research carried out substantially within Australia. It is offered every second (odd) year.

A successful candidate who is not already a member will receive a complimentary membership for the remainder of the year of award.

The Committee’s preferred form of nomination comprises: •

a concise summary of the reasons for the nomination;

•

a publication list in which the more significant contributions are identified and brief notes written on no more than five of the most important ones (where there are multiple authors to these the role of the candidate should be explained); and

•

a listing of the major achievements of the candidate including the initiation of new fields and a curriculum vitae.

The Awards Committee has limited ability to seek additional information to that in the nomination papers and therefore depends on the nomination papers to provide a full and fair account of each candidate.

Christopher Taylor Award Christopher Taylor was a Bureau of Meteorology analyst and forecaster from the mid-70s until his untimely death Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 60

at age 35 in July 1988. He had a natural curiosity in, and an enthusiasm and energy for investigating observed weather phenomena and operational forecasting problems, which were largely carried out in his own time.

The Award carries a prize of $500 very generously provided by his former wife Jacqueline Healy, and is open to professional meteorologists for contributions of all kinds to operational forecasting and supporting activities in Australia. In the spirit of Christopher Taylor’s efforts, the Awards Committee will give extra weight to nominations for operational meteorologists who have either commenced or performed a substantial part of their investigative work, or other contribution to operational forecasting, outside of normal duties.

Meteorologists who’s normal role is to support operations either through investigations or the development of operational tools may also be nominated; however, a case should be made that the contribution has exceeded the normal expectations of a person working in that position.

It should be noted that achievements of a more academic nature are recognised through other AMOS awards.

There is also a perpetual plaque held for the year by the appropriate Regional or other office.

Nominations may be made by AMOS members or others, especially senior staff of the Bureau of Meteorology who will be familiar with the work of their regional operational staff.

Please provide all nominations for both the Priestley Medal and the Christopher Taylor Award to Mark Williams, Chair, Awards Committee at: mmw@internode.on.net by 30 September 2013.

For lists of previous winners visit: http://www.amos.org.au/awards

News from the Centres

Brisbane Centre News Michael Hewson

Secretary, Brisbane Centre A 2012 survey of AMOS members affiliated with the Brisbane Regional Centre, indicated that one significant professional and social AMOS event in Brisbane met the needs of the constituency. Your committee is planning such an event—a half-day workshop series for which further information will be available in August. Look out for it—it will be similar in style to the successful 2011 event.

The Brisbane Regional Centre will also be organising the AMOS National Conference 2015. Unlike recent National Conferences, the 2015 event will be held mid-year—a delightful time of year in the sub-tropics. The program will be worked around a conceptual theme of “communicating our science”. Shortly your committee will be asking for AMOS members to join two committees to start planning for the event—the organising committee (about logistics) and a science committee (about the program). Your help would be welcome.

If you have a view about Brisbane AMOS events or if you want to indicate an early interest in helping organise

what is always a very rewarding professional development conference please be in touch—m.hewson@uq.edu.au.

Andrew Wiebe (Chair Brisbane Regional Centre AMOS) and Blair Trewin (AMOS President) discuss the first steps in planning the 2015 AMOS National Conference. Image Michael Hewson.

ACT Centre News Clem Davis

President, ACT Centre The ACT AMOS branch held a meeting on 18 July. The topics under discussion were related to local and regional policy with respect to climate change. The presentations

by Professors Steve Dovers (ANU) and Barbara Norman

NSW Centre News

(University of Canberra) are available on the Canberra page of the AMOS website1.

1 http://www.amos.org.au/regionalcentres/asset_id/92/cid/20/ parent/0/t/regionalcentres/title/act-amos-seminars-and-events-2013

Fiona Johnson Chair, NSW Centre

The NSW Centre held our June seminar at the NSW Regional Office of the Bureau of Meteorology. The speaker for our seminar was Frances Bodkin, an elder and knowledge-holder of the D’harawal people. She has published ‘D’harawal: Seasons and Climatic Cycles’, exploring ecological indicators of climatic changes.

Frances is also a recognised botanist, and is the author of Encyclopaedia Botanica, which has over 11,000 entries on Australian native plants.

Frances gave a fascinating talk about how the D’harawal people have viewed climate cycles in the Sydney basin over many thousands of years and how they managed the land with this knowledge. She encouraged us all to broaden our research, discussions and communication to ensure that we deal with our climate and natural systems in a truly holistic and inter-disciplinary way. Frances explained that Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 61

the D’harawal recognise six seasons in the Sydney area and the descriptions of these changes throughout the year certainly brought some head nodding as attendees reconciled these seasons with their experience of Sydney’s climate. She also explained the Dreaming story of the Gymea Lily which is red from the blood of a warrior who was trying to protect his people who were trapped in a cave during a storm. Frances has a wealth of stories and it was with some regret that we had to draw the seminar to a close.

Our next seminar will be held on Monday 26 August at the University of Newcastle and will be an introduction to the research activities of AMOS members and the Bureau of Meteorology in the Hunter Region. Stay tuned for an email soon with details on time and location.

Conference report

2013 EGU General Assembly 7–12 April 2013, Vienna, Austria Sophie Lewis1, Linden Ashcroft1 and Nick Tyrrell2 1 2

The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria Monash University, Clayton, Victoria

Large international conferences are really quite extraordinary. The bustling metropolis of the 2013 European Geophysical Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna bore little resemblance to the focussed, tight-knit experience of our beloved annual AMOS conference. With over 10,000 attendees, and sessions covering everything from the centre of the Earth to the furthest reaches of space, it was natural for us to be somewhat overwhelmed by our first EGU expedition.

Eventually, our overawed feelings subsided and we managed to successfully download the EGU conference mobile app, navigating our way through the colour-coded conference centre to some energising science throughout the week.

Of course, there were many sessions on climate change and modes of variability. These had, unsurprisingly, a Northern Hemisphere focus and it was particularly useful to extend our thinking beyond the drivers of Australian climatic variability that necessarily dominate local conferences.

Having said that, presentations that focussed on Australian variability were well attended and there was much fruitful discussion between researchers from both hemispheres. Sessions focussed on the Southern Ocean and Antarctic variability expanded our understanding of climatic changes in our own hemisphere. Various sessions on palaeoclimate variability had us thinking further back in time as well.

There were a number of extended presentations given by various academics who had been awarded medals by the EGU. These were a great way to see some inspiring (often young) scientists and learn more about fields that were related to our own, but that we would not have come across otherwise.

blog posts and then, during talks, questions were raised and answered immediately in a flurry of tweets. Given the size of the conference, it was very helpful to have Twitter as an additional navigational tool to find relevant talks and sessions.

We also attended a panel discussion on scientists and social media. Panellist Professor Dave Petley from Durham University described a post he made to his own blog on a landslide-induced flood in Nepal. The post inspired widespread public interest and eventually led to a publication in Nature, with the help of his highly skilled and enthused readers. It was a gripping mix of a detective drama and the popular science podcast Radiolab, perhaps something akin to CSI Geomorphology? Overall, the expert panel emphasised the numerous benefits of communicating our science more widely than to experts within a narrow field.

The depth and breadth of science and scientists at EGU was very exciting, and the opportunities to attend short courses on Fast Fourier Transforms, Demystifying Open Access and How to Apply for a Job provided much more than a small meeting can offer.

In between the sessions we also managed to find time to explore the beautiful city of Vienna. Many strudels, schnitzels and bread and cheese combinations were enjoyed, as well as a trip to the Volksoper theatre to see a spirited performance of Lehár’s opera, The Merry Widow (Die Lustige Witwe).

Many thanks to the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science for helping to fund our trips.

We soon stumbled upon the EGU cinema and thereafter met regularly for a quick break from the numerous parallel sessions and award ceremonies. A highlight was a whimsical hour-long special on the aurora borealis.

Shot on a hand-held camera, complete with meticulously hand-drawn cartoons, the audience seemed universally delighted as the auroras periodically erupted across the large screen.

Meanwhile, the EGU hashtag was exploding on Twitter.

Effectively using social media for reaching different audiences was a consistent thread weaving throughout the meeting. Sessions were spruiked through Twitter and Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 62

Conference report authors Sophie Lewis (right) and Nicholas Tyrrell (left) enjoying breakfast before heading into the conference. Image: Linden Ashcroft.

Science Articles

Explosive cyclogenesis in the south-west Pacific Mitchell T. Black1,2, Alexandre B. Pezza1 and Peter Kreft3

Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia 3 Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited, Wellington, New Zealand Address for correspondence: mtblack@student.unimelb.edu.au 1 2

Mitchell Black won the “best oral presentation” at the Victorian Postgraduate Student Symposium 2012 and was invited to submit an article to BAMOS on the awardwinning material that was presented. This article provides an insight into the presented work—Ed.

1. Background On 23 July 2008 an exceptional cyclonic system described as “no ordinary storm” (Auckland Civil Defence, 2008) formed over the Coral Sea, exhibiting a rapid deepening as it moved towards the New Zealand (NZ) North Island (Figure 1). This system had an observed 24 hour central pressure drop of 28 hPa averaged at 30°S, which is double that required to satisfy explosive classification (Sanders and Gyakum, 1980).

Hereafter referred to as the “Auckland Bomb” due to its close proximity to the major city of Auckland (Figure 2), this system was one of the most severe storms in decades to affect the NZ North Island (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, 2009; Black et al., 2010). Flooding occurred in Northland, Auckland and Coromandel, significant wind damage was recorded in Northland, Auckland, Taranaki and the central plateau, and five weather-related fatalities were recorded

(Renwick and Tait, 2009; see Figure 2 for site locations).

Meteorological observations from Cape Reinga revealed a rapid drop in pressure (47 hPa fall over 17 hours) as the system approached, with the minimum pressure reaching a record low of 962.3 hPa (station records from 1983).

In addition, mean wind speeds at Cape Reinga were recorded to be as high as 69 knots (128 km hr-1), which is equivalent to the wind speeds of a category-one tropical cyclone under the Saffir-Simpson scale (Simpson, 1974).

The “Auckland Bomb” was followed by a second explosive event in a matter of days, dubbed the “Nelson Bomb”.

The “Nelson Bomb” formed on 26 July 2008 over the northern Tasman Sea, with its central pressure falling 18 hPa in 24 hours (averaged at 30°S) as it approached NZ (Figure 1). Meteorological observations taken at the station closest to this system’s path (Farewell Spit, see Figure 2) reveal surface pressure falls of up to 20 hPa over 17 hours, a minimum pressure recording of 984 hPa and maximum mean wind speeds of 33 knots (61 km hr-1).

While these values are less extreme than those recorded at Cape Reinga for the ‘“Auckland Bomb”, the comparatively slower movement and larger size of the “Nelson Bomb” (Black et al., 2010) resulted in more prolonged, widespread flooding. A state of emergency was declared in

A (12Z 23-Jul-08) Coral Sea

C

South Pacific Ocean

(06Z 28-Jul-08)

B (12Z 30-Jul-08)

Tasman Sea

D (12Z 1-Aug-08)

Figure 1. Cyclone trajectories of the ‘Auckland Bomb’ (A-B) and ‘Nelson Bomb’ (C-D), as identified from the ERA-Interim reanalysis 6-hourly MSLP fields using the Melbourne University Tracking Scheme. The periods of explosive deepening are highlighted in red.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 63

Figure 2. A natural-colour image of the “Auckland Bomb” captured around 18 UTC 26 July 2008. The New Zealand coastlines are highlighted in yellow, while the approximate location of the system is indicated by the “L’” symbol. A number of locations referenced within the text are identified using numerical symbols: (1) Cape Reinga weather station (34.4°S 172.7°E, elevation 216 m), (2) Northland, (3) Auckland, (4) Coromandel, (5) Central Plateau, (6) Taranaki, (7) Horowhenua, (8) Farewell Spit weather station (40.6°S 173.0°E, elevation 5 m), (9) Nelson, (10) Marlborough, and (11) North Canterbury. Satellite image courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory.

Marlborough, schools and homes were evacuated on the East Coast and in North Canterbury, and Horowhenua in particular was battered by high winds (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, 2009).

the equatorward entrance region of a jet stream, with associated nearby (upper level) divergence likely to have enhanced vertical motion favouring the deepening of the surface low.

The “Auckland Bomb” and “Nelson Bomb” rate as the 20th and 13th most costly natural disasters to have occurred in NZ since 1968, respectively, with a combined damage cost exceeding $NZ72m (Insurance Council of New Zealand, 2013). The objective of this paper is to examine the role of various dynamic and thermodynamic processes during the explosive development of these two cyclones.

Examination of Figure 3a suggests that widespread warm air advection occurred poleward and eastward of the system at the time of cyclogenesis. The interaction of the high pressure system over Tasmania with the low pressure system to the east of New Zealand resulted in equatorward flow of relatively cold air over the comparatively warm waters of the Tasman Sea. Accordingly, positive fluxes of sensible and latent heat would have occurred across the Tasman Sea region, destabilising the environment ahead of the developing “Auckland” system. This is seen in water vapour satellite imagery (not shown) as an increasing area of convective-looking cloud tops developing ahead of the system.

2. The “Auckland Bomb” Genesis of the low pressure system that later became the “Auckland Bomb” occurred over the Coral Sea near 12 UTC 23 July 2008 (Figures 3a and 3b). Surface pressure fall occurred within a region of concentrated low-level cyclonic relative vorticity (as seen in ERA-Interim reanalysis data; not shown) associated with the former frontal boundary of a moderately intense cyclone that had previously passed to the east of Tasmania. Several days prior to the initial cyclogenesis, a sharp upper level trough had developed over central Australia. At the time of cyclogenesis, this upper level trough was located to the west of the developing cyclone (near 142°E, Figure 3b).

In addition, the developing cyclone was located beneath Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 64

The onset of explosive deepening of the “Auckland Bomb” occurred near 18 UTC 24 July (Figures 3c and 3d). The southwestward flow of warm, tropical air continued to the east of the system, further moistening and destabilising the air mass in advance of the cyclone. Warm air advection continued to the southeast of the cyclone, while cold air advection is observed to its northwest. Importantly, the surface cyclone is positioned directly beneath a region of upper-level divergence associated with both the exit

(b)

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50

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0m b gh ou Tr

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MSLP (hPa)

1000-500 hPa height (dam)

300 hPa wind speeds (m s-1)

500 hPa geopotential height (dam)

300 hPa divergence (>2E s ) -5

-1

Figure 3. Synoptic conditions during the formation and deepening of the “Auckland Bomb� as portrayed by the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. (a, c and e) Mean sea level pressure (solid contour, 5 hPa intervals), 1000-500 hPa height (dashed contour, 5 dam intervals) and 500 hPa relative vorticity (shaded, 4x10-5 s-1 intervals). (b, d and f) 500 hPa geopotential height (solid contour, 5 dam intervals), 300 hPa divergence (hatching, > 2x10-5 s-1) and 300 hPa wind speeds (shaded, 10 ms-1 intervals above 40 ms-1). Arrows identify the regions of cold (blue) and warm (red) air advection referenced in the text. The location of the surface cyclone is identified by the red dot.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 65

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ro h

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Figure 4. As per Figure 3, but for the “Nelson Bomb”. region of the upstream jet and the equatorward entrance of the downstream jet. A 500 hPa (closed) cyclone is first identified at 06 UTC 25 July, some 12 hours after explosive onset (not shown). Additionally, a 500 hPa relative cyclonic vorticity maximum, which had been approaching from the west, is almost directly over the surface cyclone at the time of explosive onset.

sensible and latent heat fluxes may be anticipated prior to genesis of the “Nelson” system. Following the “Auckland Bomb’s” period of explosive deepening the upper-level divergence reduced considerably (not shown), as the jet stream became more zonal.

The explosive deepening of the “Auckland Bomb” ended around 06 UTC 26 July (Figures 3e and 3f). At this time the system was still located beneath a region of upper level divergence associated with the jet stream. A 500 hPa cyclone is evident, located directly above the surface cyclone. There is a thickness ridge associated with the surface cyclone (Figure 3e), suggesting that the system has some warm-core characteristics (at least up to the 500 hPa level). An experimental cyclone phase diagram (Hart, 2003) produced for the “Auckland Bomb” (not shown) also suggests that the cyclone developed into a symmetric, warm-cored system. Of importance for the development of the “Nelson” system, the broad-scale low-level circulation around the “Auckland Bomb” (now centred over New Zealand) drew cold air equatorwards into the Tasman Sea region. Accordingly, considerable

Genesis of the “Nelson” low pressure system occurred near 06 UTC 28 July 2008, some two days following the passage of the “Auckland” system. The “Nelson” system developed from a complex low that was previously located over southeast Australia (Figure 3e). The system subsequently moved northeast into the Tasman Sea, thereby maintaining the blocking pattern that had already been established in the region. As the “Nelson” system exhibited explosive development immediately following genesis (i.e., from 12 UTC 28 July), the conditions for cyclogenesis are not shown here.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 66

3. The “Nelson Bomb”

At the onset of explosive deepening (Figures 4a and 4b), southward flow of warm, moist tropical air to the east of the surface cyclone rapidly strengthened, while strong northwestward flow was present to the south and west, between the high pressure system over Tasmania and the

developing low. A sharp upper-level trough was located west of the surface cyclone, while upper-level divergence, associated with the jet stream curvature, was located above the surface cyclone. At this time a weak 500 hPa closed circulation was located to the west of the surface cyclone (not quite apparent with the contour interval used in Figure 4b). This westward tilt was maintained throughout the period of explosive deepening, although the horizontal distance between the 500 hPa and surface cyclones gradually decreased, as is required from quasigeostrophic theory.

At the end of the explosive deepening period, the 500 hPa vorticity maximum is located almost directly above the surface cyclone (Figures 4c and 4d). A ridge in the thickness field is observed to the immediate east of the surface cyclone, suggesting that the “Nelson Bomb”, like the “Auckland Bomb”, had attained some warm core characteristics (below 500 hPa) by the end of the explosive period.

4. Discussion Formation of these two cyclones may be likened to Type B Petterssen cyclogenesis events, where surface cyclone development is initiated by a disturbance in the upper troposphere (e.g., Petterssen and Smebye, 1971).

Differential temperature advection behind and ahead of the developing surface low, as observed in both cases, occurs more or less simultaneously with the intensification of upper-level troughs and ridges, which in turn results in an intensification of the surface cyclone (Holton, 2004; Bullock and Gyakum, 1993). The horizontal distance of separation between the upper trough and the low-level circulation is observed to decrease rapidly during cyclone intensification, as in Northern Hemisphere (NH) explosive events (e.g., Sanders and Gyakum, 1980), with the axis tending towards the vertical as the cyclone approaches peak intensity; this implies that the system is becoming equivalent barotropic. This, in addition to the approach of the respective (500 hPa) relative cyclonic vorticity maxima towards the two developing surface cyclones (a feature also observed during NH explosive events, e.g., Sanders, 1986), suggests that there is similarity in the nature of cyclonic development in these two cases and their comparatively well-studied NH counterparts. This is consistent with the recent work of Black and Pezza (2013), who showed that the environmental energetics signatures of explosive cyclones are virtually identical for systems in both hemispheres.

Regions of upper-level divergence associated with jet stream curvature have been identified as the major cause of rapid cyclone deepening in a number of NH explosive studies (e.g., Uccellini et al., 1985; Baehr et al., 1999; Ulbrich et al., 2001). This feature is also notable in these two cases, suggesting that, similar to NH explosive events, these two cyclogenesis events were mainly driven by large scale baroclinic processes. The influence of the jet stream on cyclone development has been well observed within the southwest Pacific, having been identified as a Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 67

feature important for both cyclogenesis in general (e.g., Sinclair and Revell, 2000) and more specifically rapid cyclone intensification (e.g., Holland et al., 1987; Feren, 1990; Buckley and Leslie, 2000). The importance of strong baroclinicity on cyclone deepening may be inferred from the phase (vertical) tilt of the “Nelson” system at the start of rapid pressure fall. This system is seen to have a 500 hPa cyclone centre positioned around 550 km to the west of the surface cyclone; such westward tilt has been observed during the rapid deepening of cyclones in other studies (e.g., Grotjahn and Tribbia, 1995; Wahab et al., 2002; Lim and Simmonds, 2007) and is consistent with baroclinic instability theory (e.g., Holton, 2004).

During the period of the “Auckland Bomb”, conditions within the Tasman Sea domain closely reflected those of an “easterly dip” environment (a trough or wave in the subtropical easterly flow with a ridge on its poleward side), suggesting that this cyclone underwent development somewhat analogous to explosive (type-2) East Coast Lows (ECLs) (Holland et al., 1987). However, unlike type2 ECLs, the explosive deepening occurred away from the eastern Australian coastline over a region of relatively weak SST gradients (not shown). The “Nelson Bomb” appeared to develop from a complex low that moved across south-east Australia into a favourable upper-level environment. Both of the case developments occurred as part of an extended blocking episode, a characteristic of which is the split jet stream flow. The warm seclusion by both systems is also a feature common to type-2 ECLs (Holland et al., 1987), resulting from rapid intensification (e.g., Hart, 2003).

It is likely that the fluxes of sensible and latent heat were important for the explosive development of the two storms, similar to the findings of previous explosive events in this region (e.g., Revell and Ridley, 1995; Hopkins and Holland, 1997). The observed transport of warm, tropical air into the Tasman Sea region during these two events, as a result of the cyclone-anticyclone pairing, is comparable to the established strong moist northeasterly airflow preceding the “Boxing Day” storm of 1998, which contributed significantly to explosive development (Buckley and Leslie, 2000). Amplified upper level flow was also important for the development of the “Boxing Day” storm (Buckley and Leslie, 2000), analogous to the case cyclones presented in this paper.

Overall, both cyclone systems exhibited similar features during their incipient development and subsequent explosive deepening phases. From this brief analysis of the ERA-Interim fields it is very likely that the jet stream played a significant role in the explosive development of both systems, while the lower-level response to this upperlevel forcing may have been amplified by sensible and latent heat fluxes.

5. Future studies The local and large scale synergetic influences of the sea surface temperature and oceanic heat content will be explored in a future publication. This study will explicitly

address the evolution of the thermal structure of explosive cyclones using the concept of “General Core Transition” recently proposed by Pezza et al. (2013). Given that the Tasman Sea is an area already experiencing an oceanic warming above the global average (Wu et al., 2012), a better understanding of the dynamic response of explosive cyclones is of strategic importance for Australia and New Zealand.

Acknowledgments A.B. Pezza would like to thank the ARC and the Australian Antarctic Division for funding parts of this work.

References

Insurance Council of New Zealand, 2013, The cost of disaster events, www.icnz.org.nz/current/weather/ Lim, E.P. and Simmonds, I., 2007, Southern Hemisphere winter extratropical cyclone characteristics and vertical organization observed with the ERA-40 data in 1979– 2001, Journal of Climate, 20, 2675–2690.

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, 2009, Natural Hazards 2008, National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research Information Series, 69.

Petterssen, S. and Smebye, S.J., 1971, On the development of extratropical cyclones, Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 97, 457–482.

Auckland Civil Defence, 2008. Civil Defence is monitoring the weather situation. http://managers. aucklandcivildefence.org.nz/Media-Releases/2008/July/25/ Civil-Defence-is-monitoring-the-weather-situation/

Pezza, A., Garde, L., Veiga, J. and Simmonds, I., 2013, Large scale features and energetics of the hybrid subtropical low “Duck” over the Tasman Sea, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1688-x

Baehr, C., Pouponneau, B., Asyrault, F. and Joly, A., 1999, Dynamical characterization of the FASTEX cyclogenesis cases, Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 125, 3469–3494.

Renwick, J. and Tait, A., 2009, New Zealand national climate summary – the year 2008, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research report.

Black, M.T. and Pezza, A.B., 2013, A universal, broadenvironment energy conversion signature of explosive cyclones, Geophysical Research Letters, 40, doi: 10.1002/ grl.50114.

Black, M.T., Pezza, A.B. and Kreft, P., 2010, An examination of Southwest Pacific explosive cyclones, 1989 to 2009, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 11, doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/11/1/012036.

Buckley, B.W. and Leslie, L.M., 2000, The Australian Boxing Day storm of 1998—synoptic description and numerical simulations, Weather and Forecasting, 15, 543– 558.

Bullock, T.A. and Gyakum, J.R., 1993, A diagnostic study of cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific Ocean, Monthly Weather Review, 121, 65–75.

Feren, G., 1990, Climatology of storms in eastern Bass Strait, Internal Bureau of Meteorology Technical Report.

Revell, M.J. and Ridley, R.N., 1995, The origin and evolution of low-level potential vorticity anomalies during a case of Tasman Sea cyclogenesis, Tellus, 47A, 779–796.

Sanders, F., 1986, Explosive cyclogenesis in the westcentral north Atlantic Ocean, 1981–1984. 1. Composite structure and mean-behavior, Monthly Weather Review, 114, 1781–1794.

Sanders, F. and Gyakum, J.R., 1980, Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the bomb, Monthly Weather Review, 108, 1589–1606.

Simpson, R.H., 1974, The hurricane disaster-potential scale, Weatherwise, 27, 169–186.

Sinclair, M.R. and Revell, M.J., 2000, Classification and composite diagnosis of extratropical cyclogenesis events in the southwest Pacific, Monthly Weather Review, 128, 1089–1105.

Grotjahn, R. and Tribbia, J., 1995, On the mechanisms of cyclogenesis as deduced from vertical axis tilts, Tellus, 41A, 1–17.

Uccellini, L.W., Keyser, D., Brill, K.F. and Wash, C.H., 1985, The Presidents’ Day cyclone of 18–19 February 1979—influence of upstream trough amplification and associated tropopause folding on rapid cyclogenesis, Monthly Weather Review, 113, 962–988.

Hart, R.E., 2003, A cyclone phase space derived from thermal wind and thermal asymmetry, Monthly Weather Review, 131, 585–616.

Ulbrich, U., Fink, A.H., Klawa, M. and Pinto, J.G., 2001, Three extreme storms over Europe in December 1999, Weather, 56, 70–80.

Holland, G.J., Lynch, A.H. and Leslie, L.M., 1987, Australian east-coast cyclones: 1. Synoptic overview and case-study, Monthly Weather Review, 115, 3024–3036.

Wahab, M.A., Basset, H.A. and Lasheen, A.M., 2002, On the mechanism of winter cyclogenesis in relation to vertical axis tilt, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 81, 103–127.

Holton, J.R., 2004, An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, Academic Press, New York, 535 pp.

Hopkins, L.C. and Holland, G.J., 1997, Australian heavyrain days and associated east coast cyclones: 1958–92, Journal of Climate, 10, 621–635.

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Wu, L., Cai, W., Zhang, L., Nakamura, H., Timmermann, A., Joyce, T., McPhaden, M. J. et al., 2012. Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents, Nature Climate Change, 2, 161–166.

Articles

AMOS Strategic Plan Blair Trewin, AMOS President After an extensive process of consultation, AMOS Council adopted a set of AMOS strategic goals at its July meeting. This is the first time that we have had an explicit set of strategic goals to guide us in what we do as an organisation. Over the last few years, we have been good at doing what we’ve always been doing—in particular, the National Conference has grown to be a major event in the calendar within our community—but this process has given us the opportunity to take a step back and review whether our range of activities are those best suited to the organisation into the future, and what gaps exist in the current environment where we could make a useful contribution.

The next step will be the development of an AMOS Operational Plan for the implementation of specific actions relating to the strategic goals, which will include a reinforcement of existing AMOS programs as well as (hopefully) some new initiatives. Ultimately, a combined strategic/operational document will be published. These processes may give rise to a need for changes to the AMOS Rules; if so, these will be put to the 2014 AGM. An initial set of desired performance indicators was also agreed at the July meeting and the process of collecting the necessary information to monitor them will begin shortly.

AMOS Strategic Plan and Goals Introduction The Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) is an independent society representing the atmospheric and oceanographic sciences in Australia, covering sciences associated with the understanding of the atmosphere, oceans and climate system, and their socioeconomic and ecological impacts. It currently has over 500 members, drawn from the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO, the university sector, other State and Federal agencies, as well as the private sector. Most members of AMOS are actively employed in one of the scientific fields covered by the Society, but the membership also includes students (especially at the postgraduate and Honours level), retired scientists, and others from the general community with an interest in weather and climate.

AMOS has Regional Centres in each state and territory.

AMOS organises a National Conference each year. This has grown in recent years and attracted more than 400 registrations in 2013, and has become the leading forum in Australia for presenting the latest research in the atmospheric and oceanographic sciences. The Regional Centres also organise a number of events each year for the benefit of members in their regions.

AMOS publishes a Bulletin every two months, and an electronic newsletter monthly. AMOS is also a partner Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 69

with the Bureau of Meteorology in the publication of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, which publishes scientific papers in those fields, particularly those focused on the Southern Hemisphere.

A key role of the Society is to act as a credible independent voice for the profession. As part of this role, AMOS has made submissions to, or provided independent experts for, a number of recent inquiries and reviews, such as the Royal Commission into the 2009 Victorian bushfires and the current Senate inquiry into extreme weather events in Australia.

AMOS is an incorporated association registered in Victoria. It is governed by an Executive and a Council. The Executive, whose members are elected for two-year terms, consists of a President, a Vice-President, a Secretary and a Treasurer. The Council, in addition to the Executive, consists of the chairs of the Regional Centres, chairs of Committees, the immediate Past President, and up to six “at large” members elected by the Annual General Meeting.

The Council normally meets every two months, with the Annual General Meeting normally held in conjunction with the National Conference in January or February.

AMOS’s Vision Statement “To advance the scientific understanding of the atmosphere, oceans and climate system, and their socioeconomic and ecological impacts, and promote applications of this understanding for the benefit of all Australians”.

AMOS’s Strategic Goals 1. To be an independent voice of authority and advocacy for the sciences covered by AMOS and for the profession.

AMOS has a critical role to play as the independent voice of authority for the profession. This is especially important in high-profile politically contested fields such as climate science, but is also important in many other aspects of the sciences covered by the Society. The major institutions are constrained in this area through not being considered an objective, independent judge of their own science, and sometimes through political considerations (for example, the inability of government agencies to make public statements inconsistent with broader government policy, or to lobby openly for improved budget outcomes).

Contexts in which AMOS has played this role in recent years include: •

Making submissions to, and giving evidence before, various Parliamentary inquiries, including inquiries on the status of seasonal climate prediction in Australia, and a recent inquiry into extreme weather events in Australia.

•

Making a submission to, and giving evidence before, the 2009 Royal Commission into the Victorian bushfires. Through this submission, AMOS was able to gain appropriate public recognition for the outstanding performance of the operational forecasters handling this event.

•

Making a submission, in collaboration with Science and Technology Australia, to a review of Commonwealth Freedom of Information legislation, making the review aware of the implications of that legislation in practice, particularly with respect to climate science.

•

Making formal position statements on specific aspects of the science. So far, the only AMOS statement of this type is on climate change.

•

Making comment in the media, particularly to address misinformation on climate change. (This may become a more significant function in the future should one or more of the major institutions retreat from engagement with the media as a result of changes in government policy).

Whilst it is not something AMOS has thus far had to do to any significant extent, the Society would also potentially have a role in providing support, publicly and/or privately, to members who are the subject of external criticism. The situation faced by the engineers at Wivenhoe Dam in the aftermath of the 2011 Queensland floods is indicative of what could potentially be faced by our members at some point in the future.

Part of this objective is to encourage science-based decision-making. The Society’s presence at public inquiries and similar events as described above assists in building our profile in this area.

2. To advance scientific and technological knowledge and foster applications in the sciences covered by AMOS through high-quality meetings, publications and other forms of communication.

AMOS’s major annual event is the National Conference.

This has grown significantly over recent years, from 100– 200 registrations (depending on venue) in the mid-2000s to over 400 (with about 400 papers being presented, either as oral presentations or posters) in 2013. The National Conference has grown to become the principal forum for the atmospheric and oceanographic sciences in Australia, but has also provided a good opportunity for many years for students and early-career researchers to present their work. On occasions the National Conference has been staged as a joint conference with the Meteorological Society of New Zealand, either in Australia or in New Zealand, and in 2009 it was staged jointly, in Melbourne, with the American Meteorological Society’s Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography.

AMOS has not staged any separate specialist conferences or workshops at a national level in recent years, although workshops have taken place in conjunction with the National Conference, and Regional Centres (particularly in Melbourne) have hosted subject-specific workshops Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 70

and symposia. This is an area with the potential for future expansion.

The major local scientific publication in the atmospheric and oceanographic sciences in Australia is the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal (AMOJ).

This is published by the Bureau of Meteorology, with AMOS appointing a number of the Associate Editors.

The continued existence of a peer-reviewed scientific journal for Australian meteorology and oceanography is a matter of great importance for the scientific community in Australia. The Journal is freely available online, which has given the publication additional exposure both within and outside Australia, and has resulted in a substantial increase in its impact factor since 2006.

The Society publishes the Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (otherwise known as BAMOS). The Bulletin carries a mix of news relevant to members of the Society, and scientific articles (normally pitched at a more generalist and less technical level than those published in AMOJ). In 2012 the Bulletin moved to a system of formal peer review of science articles and can thus now be classified as a peer-reviewed publication. The Bulletin is now published entirely online (except for a small print run by special request). The Bulletin is supplemented by an electronic newsletter, issued monthly to members.

The AMOS website is a critical platform for communication, both amongst members and with the broader community.

The current functioning of the AMOS website has been identified as a significant weakness, and an upgrade is a high priority.

While it has, thus far, had a limited role in public engagement, the Society’s social media presence (Facebook and Twitter) has played a useful role in facilitating communication amongst AMOS members, particularly in reporting significant scientific news in the atmospheric and oceanographic sciences.

3. To build a community in the sciences covered by AMOS, including amongst those in research, operations and amateur enthusiasts.

AMOS has a significant role to play in building links within the community in the sciences covered by AMOS, both through facilitating professional networking and through more general engagement. In addition to the more formal scientific events described earlier in this plan, several AMOS Regional Centres organise social events of various kinds which also support the building of a community.

A weakness which the Society has identified is the limited involvement of operational meteorologists, with only a few being members. (This has also been noted by societies in other comparable countries, such as Canada). It is likely that a large part of the reason for this is that operational meteorologists, who mostly work on fixed rosters (often as shiftworkers), have difficulty in attending AMOS events.

The current timing of the National Conference also makes it difficult for operational meteorologists to attend as it is at the height of the tropical cyclone, severe weather and

(in some states) fire weather seasons. A priority for AMOS is to investigate how the Society can better engage with operational meteorologists as well as to increase AMOS’s membership amongst this group, and hence greatly strengthen our community.

AMOS also views amateur weather enthusiasts as part of its constituency. This group provides a source of potential membership growth, and also has the potential to contribute to the sciences covered by AMOS—for example, through increasing the density of the observation network, or through crowdsourced science projects (e.g. digitisation of historical data).

4. To advance the scientific literacy of the general population in the sciences covered by AMOS. Engagement with the broader community is an area in which AMOS has had an intermittent involvement through its existence. The scientific literacy of the general population is an explicit or implicit objective of other comparable societies (e.g. American Meteorological Society, Royal Meteorological Society). There are strong benefits for the scientific community in greater public literacy in the sciences covered by the Society—for example, through promoting science-based decisionmaking, and through fostering greater public engagement with, and support from, the broader community.

The Education Committee is the most obvious vehicle for advancing this strategic goal. Broader public engagement, outside the education system, could also be the responsibility of this committee (with an expanded brief), or it could be the responsibility of a “communications” committee (replacing the effectively defunct Public Relations committee).

There is some demand for speakers to external organisations which AMOS has filled on an ad hoc, rather than systematic, basis. The institutions covered by AMOS also have some involvement in this space, although also on a somewhat intermittent basis.

Increasingly, electronic and social media will be important in engaging with the broader population. To achieve this successfully, it will be necessary to build AMOS’s profile as a source of authoritative and accessible information. An increased presence in the mainstream media may support this objective.

5. To attract talented and enthusiastic people into the sciences covered by AMOS. It is in the profession’s interest to maximise the talent available to it. People with the skills required for many careers in the atmospheric and oceanographic sciences (especially analytical and mathematical skills) are in high demand, in both the public and private sectors. While AMOS can have only very limited influence on financial drivers of career courses, we do have the potential to influence career decisions through increasing general awareness of the range of career options in our field, as well as through fostering a positive scientific environment across institutions, which supports recruitment to, and retention in, the sciences covered by AMOS. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 71

A particular issue is fostering opportunities for women within the sciences covered by AMOS. Historically, the atmospheric and oceanographic sciences have been extremely male-dominated, and this is reflected by the facts that AMOS has not yet had a female President, and has only two female Fellows. Whilst the gender balance is much more even amongst younger cohorts (under 40), the Society also has an important role to play in ensuring that members of that generation have the opportunity to maximise their scientific potential and achieve leadership positions as their careers evolve.

6. To recognise excellence in the sciences covered by AMOS. AMOS has a significant role in independently recognising excellence within the profession. The Society currently has four major awards: •

The Priestley Medal—awarded biennially for excellence in meteorological or oceanographic research.

•

The Morton Medal (formerly the AMOS Medal)—a national award recognising leadership in meteorology and/or oceanography and/or related fields, with particular emphasis on education and development of young scientists, and personal example in research.

•

The Christopher Taylor Award—a national award for operational forecasting and related investigations.

•

The Uwe Radok Award—an annual award for the best PhD thesis for the preceding year in the fields of meteorology, oceanography, glaciology or climatology.

There are also awards made for student presentations at the National Conference, which also features the R.H. Clarke Lecture, an invited review lecture by an expert in an aspect of meteorology or other related subjects. There are also awards for undergraduate students in each state/ territory which are made by the Regional Centres.

A number of gaps have been identified in the AMOS awards structure, including the absence of any awards specifically directed at publications. Investigating and addressing these gaps will be an important part of successfully achieving this strategic goal.

7. To advance the profession in the sciences covered

by AMOS through effective communication of opportunities, and professional development.

AMOS plays an important role as an institution-neutral communicator of opportunities in the sciences it covers.

The AMOS website and e-mail list are attracting an increasing number of job advertisements (which are also a useful source of revenue for the Society).

The Society’s role in professional development has been limited, as it has lacked the resources to run activities in its own right. However, AMOS has facilitated a number of activities in specialised areas which have been wellreceived and attracted good attendances, such as the software boot camp run in February 2013 in association

with the National Conference. An area identified for further investigation is the extent to which AMOS can support professional development (using a remote delivery model) for members in operational areas. In addition to the benefits for the members themselves, this would make AMOS more relevant to operational practitioners and would therefore have the potential to increase membership amongst that group (see goal 3 above).

AMOS does not currently offer professional accreditation, a decision which was made a number of years ago on the basis of the resources required to implement it (including managing potential legal issues associated with it), the limited demand for it in an environment where most employment in the sciences covered by AMOS is in the public sector, and the availability of accreditation through international bodies (such as the Royal Meteorological Society and the American Meteorological Society) for any individuals with a particular requirement for it. This does not preclude revisiting this decision should local demand for professional accreditation increase at some point in the future.

8. To ensure the long-term future of AMOS through effective governance and sound financial management.

In order to carry out its operations AMOS must manage its budget on a sustainable basis. The largest part of the Society’s annual turnover results from the National Conference, and fluctuates considerably from year to

year depending on attendance at the Conference (which, in turn, depends to some extent on the Conference’s location). Whilst AMOS has substantial cash reserves it is still important for the organisation to run at least a balanced budget over the medium term (several years).

The governance of the Society is important in order for it to be able to operate in the most effective way possible for the benefit of its members. Good governance is also necessary for AMOS to be able to comply with the various regulatory requirements which it faces from time to time, especially those relating to incorporated associations, taxation and employment.

The AMOS Regional Centres and sub-committees also play an important role in AMOS’s governance as they are responsible for many activities which occur ‘on the ground’. The majority of Regional Centres operate effectively, as do some of the sub-committees. However, other sub-committees are effectively defunct, and there is a case for other sub-committees (e.g. policy, communications, and various subject expert committees) which do not currently exist. As part of improving the ability of Regional Centres and AMOS sub-committees to contribute effectively to the achievement of the Society’s goals, options include the establishment of formal terms of reference for those bodies, and/or having them report specifically to a member of the Executive, or one of the ‘at large’ members of Council.

Wanted: New AMOS Bulletin editor Do you like writing and communicating? Do you want to meet more AMOS members, and work with leaders in our scientific community? Well this is the opportunity for you!

AMOS is currently searching for someone to fill the role of Bulletin editor. The editor is responsible for all aspects of the Bulletin, including writing the editorial, organising the reviews of submitted scientific articles, and collecting and compiling the contents for each issue. There will be support from the current editor, the editor-in-chief and AMOS administrative officer. Some knowledge of Adobe InDesign is helpful, but not necessary. Postgraduate students are encouraged to apply and, if successful, will be financially supported by an honourarium.

If you are interested, have any questions or would like to apply, please contact Duncan Ackerley (current editor, duncan.ackerley@monash.edu), Stewart Allen (Editor in Chief, stewart.allen@bom.gov.au) or Jeanette Dargaville (administrative officer, admin_officer@amos.org.au).

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 72

AMOS

AMOS National Conference 2014

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Australian Government Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities Australian Antarctic Division

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 73

Meet a Member

Roger Badham Where does this find you?

San Francisco as meteorologist for Emirates Team New Zealand (ETNZ)—a team competing in the America’s Cup yacht races. I am here for 6 months this year—the final races are in September.

What do you do?

All forecasts and wind climate analyses for ETNZ wherever they sail and race around the world. I also forecast for the Ferrari F1 racing team, Yachting New Zealand sailors wherever they are sailing world wide, passage forecasts for large and small boats around the world and yachting regattas in many locations around the world. The 2016 Olympic Games will be my 8th Olympic Games—four for Australia and four for NZ. Since 1997, I have forecast every day. Only flying from one hemisphere to another has provided a break—there is always a regatta, an ocean race or a boat/ship on the ocean somewhere.

Why did you get into it?

Nothing in my professional life has been planned. I have spent the last 30 years in high end yachting. In 1973 I teamed up with Don White (see the April 2013 edition of BAMOS for Don’s meet a member piece—Ed.) and we attempted to become environmental consultants—perhaps 20 years too early! We had a few jobs, but the demand was not there, however, we were constantly asked if we could provide forecasts. I see the years 1976–1984 as my galley years as a meteorologist; plotting and analysing my own weather maps, developing my own diagnostic tools and writing forecasts. In 1977 when working for TV station Channel 7 Sydney, the then station boss, Ted Thomas, asked if I would go to the boat park at the weekends to help his new young recruit Iain Murray sailing 18 foot skiff races.

I did all Iain’s work 1977–1982 and that took me back to sailing—I sailed, surfed and swum when young, but I was a very average sailor. Since 1984, I have done pretty much nothing else but yachting meteorology—in 20 countries.

What is the best thing about what you do?

The level and intensity of forecasting with the America’s Cup is not appreciated by most. The Cup itself is a complete waste of money and energy and cannot be justified by any measure—the wasted money would be better spent on world health or developing alternative energies!

The Cup is the pinnacle of yachting and is held approximately every 3–4 years and allows a very detailed study of a very specific location. The Cup has only been held in six locations; Newport USA, Fremantle, San Diego, Auckland, Valencia and now San Francisco.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 74

I am given two to four years to develop a forecast scheme that will be the most accurate possible—a wind forecast, and to a lesser degree the seaway, for the day, the race period and the start. Forecast time scales vary from 10–15 minutes, 30–90 minutes and 12–72 hours ahead. The main focus is to understand the spatial and temporal variation of the wind across a 10 sq km location—particularly any asymmetry that can be tracked and forecast over time.

Over eight Cups, the forecasting tools have greatly improved. For three cups, (1994–2003) Prof Lance Leslie and Russel Morison from UNSW provided high resolution modelling. For this present Cup, Prof George Kallos and his group from University of Athens are providing hiresolution modelling.

For most venues, I have developed a suite of short term forecast techniques using non linear regressions and/or neural nets. This particular Cup is different—the event has a new faster boat and the teams are not permitted to collect their own weather data. We can only use data provided to all teams, or available in the public domain. For this reason and ETNZ entering the recent Volvo Round the World Yacht Race, I have not spent time on the water in San Francisco. The weather team is generally myself and maybe one assistant. For the previous Cup in Valencia, I had a weather team of 4 people during the final summer of racing. This time, I have a young meteorologist, Jessica Sweeney from Perth assisting for 2–3 months.

In the last few Cups with slow boats, I was intimately involved in the decision making at the start—a significant input to the race—and winning or losing! This racing is different as the new boat is very fast and the races are over in 30 minutes and racing decisions are mostly made on the boat. But I can still lose races for the team—with the weather calls for setting up the boat the previous night and the sail selection immediately prior to racing.

For Ferrari, I provide a daily forecast during the week leading up to racing. Then several forecasts per day over the race weekend as well as connecting to the track in real time forecasting during Practice, Qualifying and the Race.

The forecast concentrates on weather, rain, track and air temperatures and wind. Perhaps the most difficult is the 48 hour wind forecast for the race. The wind is required for the long straight—to set the 7th gear ratio and that has to be set on Friday night when the motor is built—it cannot then be touched again prior to the race on Sunday afternoon, without a penalty. While the America’s Cup was in court in 2008–2009, I spent time at the all of the race tracks with the Ferrari team.

Thirty years has seen a huge change in what I need to take to a regatta. Before the internet could provide a wealth of data, I was off a plane with radios, decoders, large printers,

theodolite and a computer of some sort. At the airport, the customs guy was always hassling me for a carnet! These days, I arrive with a laptop!

I have worked with nearly every famous yachtsman over the last 30 years—they are all smart people, some are natural leaders, others are not! Sailing is a complex sport, marrying the difficulty of making the boat go fast while managing the crew as well as attempting to understand the surrounding environment. In the end, it comes down to balancing the tactical (boat on boat) and strategical (navigational and environmental) inputs in where best to place the boat on the race track.

How do you relax?

Classical music and planting trees—generally not at the same time. I spend long periods away from home; in Valencia, I was home for only two months of the year for four years and the music keeps me sane. Living on the 10th floor of an apartment is very different to my home in the rainforest.

Auckland (NZ) is a great place to forecast. We sail off the east coast bays on the inner Hauraki Gulf; however, the west coast sea breeze is the dominant and stronger sea breeze. The transition and timing between the weaker east coast and then later west coast sea breeze is a great forecast to get right. High-resolution modelling is now pretty good, but the movement of the sea breeze convergence zone is not always as regular as forecast!

The south-east coast of France (Hyeres to Nice to Monaco)—the sharp shear line between the strong to gale force mistral winds only 10 to 15 miles offshore and soft breeze along the coast is sometimes truly amazing. Large shower clouds and thunderstorms can edge extremely close on the Alps, yet have minimal influence on the narrow coastal strip.

Home—I am nearing retirement and I look forward to never ever having to go near, or through, another airport!

San Francisco is a very interesting location with a great deal happening. The afternoon sea breeze, or more strictly speaking, bay breeze, is strong and consistent nearly every day, but in detail, the breeze is far from consistent. Capped by a shallow and intense marine layer (temperature inversion), the much photographed, very low cloud (fog) that spills over and through the Golden Gate Bridge adds an extra complication to the structure of the breeze.

Perturbations in the marine layer generate gravity waves that propagate across the central Bay area. Holes (sudden drop in wind speed) and large wind shifts result, right where we race between the bridge and the city shoreline.

Favourite forecast locations: I have developed a good working knowledge of 50 to 60 locations around the world as well as all ocean sailing routes. It seems a shame that learnt knowledge is not always handed down. It happens in all trades and professions, retirement sees an enormous amount of knowledge and experience simply walk out the door.

The water temperature is around 13–15°C, yet there are plenty of regular swimmers most times of the day at Aquatic Park on the city shoreline. With air temperature generally 1 to 3°C cooler than the water and 15 to 30 knots of bay breeze, Mark Twain’s famous quote is a reality on the water; “The coldest winter I have ever spent was summer in San Francisco.”

Favourite locations: Solent (Isle of Wight, UK)—many enjoyable regattas on this waterway. From gale force frontal weather to the softest sea breezes, the Solent has a huge amount of history, along with variable and interesting weather.

Roger, in an earlier era, was also responsible for sparking an already existing interest in weather further by giving one of his neighbours a rain gauge for his seventh birthday.

Thirty-five years later, that neighbour is now the AMOS President—Ed.

In my life I planted nearly 100 000 trees and I am still planting. On my knees I can do 200–300 trees a day when prepared.

What is your favourite holiday destination?

AMOS member Roger Badham. Image: Chris Cameron.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 75

Snapshot

Mid-winter sunset in the desert 27 July 2013 Jennifer Catto

This stunnning image shows the sunset at Uluru (which is behind the photographer), taken at approximately 6:30 p.m. After watching the rock turn a variety of interesting colours as the sun set, the photographer looked the other

way and noticed the red / orange glow of the altocumulus / altostratus and took this snapshot.

If you have an image of the weather near you to share, send it to duncan.ackerley@monash.edu, or post it on the AMOS Facebook page. — Ed

2013 School Art and Photography Competition

The atmosphere and the ocean have long been a source of inspiration for all kinds of artists. We invite you to be inspired by them, too! You are invited to submit a painting, drawing, collage or other type of visual art on the theme of how the weather or the ocean affects people’s lives to the AMOS Art Competition. This competition is open to all school students from grades 1 to 10 in Australia.The entry categories are: Painting and Drawing: Lower Primary school (up to Grade to 3) and Upper Primary school (Years 4 to 6) Photography: Open Primary and Secondary school (up to Grade 10) The winners of each category receive a cash prize of $50, and their schools receive a prize of books for the school library.

The 2013 Art Competition closes on Friday, 11 October 2013.

Visit http://www.amos.org.au/education/cid/19/parent/0/pid/19/t/education/title/amos-art-competition for more details.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 76

Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin

4 June 1957 After a decade dominated by La Niña events and heavy rainfall in eastern Australia—including the largest Murray River flood of the last 90 years in the spring of 1956—the first half of 1957 saw a return to dry conditions as an El Niño event developed. Major blocking highs became particularly commonplace by late autumn. Australia’s driest day on record was 5 May (in an area-averaged sense), with falls in only a few pockets of western Tasmania, coastal New South Wales, Gippsland and far south-west Western Australia. At the time May was the driest month on record for NSW and remains the second-driest on record (after April 1997). It was also an exceptionally frosty month in many parts of the south-east; Canberra had 27 nights below 0°C for the month, a record for any month, and its monthly mean minimum of −2.6°C ranks fourth-lowest for any month, and more than two degrees ahead of any other May. By the start of June a large blocking high had moved over the southeast, setting the scene for one of the most exceptional winter warm spells on record for the region.

Record or near-record warmth for June occurred regularly during the first nine days of the month, particularly from the 2nd to the 5th. Records set included those at Melbourne (22.4°C on the 2nd), Adelaide (25.6°C on the 4th), Canberra (20.1°C on the 3rd and 4th), Ceduna (29.8°C on the 3rd) and Mount Gambier (21.6°C on the 2nd), while Bairnsdale reached 25.7°C on the 3rd, a Victorian state record (later equalled in 2005).

Perhaps more exceptional than the absolute temperature values was the length of the warm spell. Melbourne had seven consecutive days above 20°C—no other June has had more than two—while Adelaide had four consecutive days above 25°C from the 2nd to the 5th, a mark which has

been reached on only three other occasions in the city’s records, and reached 23°C on each of the first ten days of the month. (At the time, the event was responsible for nine of the ten warmest June days on record in Adelaide).

Overnight temperatures warmed in South Australia and Victoria but remained low in eastern NSW; Canberra’s record spell of sub-zero nights, which eventually ended at 22 on 12 June, continued throughout the event, and included −8.5°C (followed by a 15.9°C maximum) on the 8th, which remains a June record and was an all-time record at the time (although it was to last only a few weeks).

The unseasonable warm conditions saw people flocking to beaches in Melbourne and Adelaide, with some even braving the water. In Sydney the anticyclonic conditions brought overnight fog which disrupted flights and ferry services. Small bushfires were reported in the Otways and in western Sydney. Conditions were less clement on the other side of the continent, with an intense low pressure system bringing rain (74mm at Capel) and high winds to southwestern Western Australia. As was the case for most unusual weather of the era, much popular opinion blamed the conditions on nuclear testing despite the absence of any scientific evidence.

The dry conditions broke down from mid-month, due mainly to a northwest cloudband from 19–22 June, but the month went on to be easily the warmest June on record for Victoria, South Australia and NSW, with record high monthly maximum temperatures almost everywhere in the three states.

Synoptic chart for 1200 AEST, 4 June 1957

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 77

The Research Corner with Damien Irving

Professional development and open education As weather/climate scientists, we are all aware of the profound impact that open access journals are having on publishing. The White House recently announced that publications from taxpayer-funded research should be made free to read (after a 12 month delay), Princeton University have established a policy that prevents researchers from giving the copyright of scholarly articles to journal publishers, and thousands of researchers have boycotted publisher Elsevier due to the fees they charge for access to scientific publications.

What you might be less aware of, particularly if you don’t work in the university sector, is a somewhat similar revolution that is taking place with respect to online open education. The movement started in the late 1990s with the advent of OpenCourseWare, and began to take off in 2002 when MIT established MIT OpenCourseWare. At this website, anyone can get access to virtually all MIT course content (i.e. the syllabus, lecture notes and reading lists for nearly all of the subjects they teach). There are now hundreds of universities that offer similar access to at least some of their teaching materials (search OpenCourseWare Consortium for details).

While free access to university teaching materials was an amazing development, it’s kind of like spying on a class from the back of the room. You can watch, but you can’t join in the learning process. This lack of any real participatory element led to the idea of delivering free university courses online, complete with lectures, assignments and exams.

These are commonly known as Massive Open Online Courses (or MOOCs) and their popularity exploded in 2012, when several prestigious universities like Harvard, MIT and Stanford got involved. In fact, the New York Times dubbed 2012 “The Year of the MOOC,” while a similar article in Time magazine said that free MOOCs open the door to “Ivy League for the masses.” The three big players on the MOOC scene are Coursera, EdX and Udacity. They currently offer about 250 courses between them, mainly in technical subjects like computer science and maths (because these have the most straightforward content in terms of grading and assessment).

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 78

While the pursuit of free education for the masses is a great and noble thing, what does it mean for those of us working in the weather/climate sciences? Well, it means that picking up new skills and knowledge post graduation is now easier than ever. One of my office mates is running a global climate model as part of his research, so he recently enrolled in a high performance computing subject with Coursera. Similarly, another office mate is keen on switching to Python for his computer programming, so he has enrolled in an introductory course (as well as a beginners course in guitar playing, but that’s probably not so relevant here...). The latter is doing all the lectures and assignments in accordance with the subject deadlines (at an estimated time commitment of 5 hours per week), while the former simply enrolled in order to get his hands on the course content, which he will watch/read some other time. These examples are fairly representative, in the sense that most MOOCs are introductory in nature and that many people enrol in a course but don’t formally complete the assessment.

In higher education circles, some people argue that MOOCs are a fad that will soon fade, while others think they are here to stay. If the latter is true, then MOOCs represent a fantastic professional development resource, particularly as the concept matures and the teaching content moves beyond the introductory level. In the meantime, OpenCourseWare represents a great alternative for advanced materials on weather/climate science. In fact, over the past few months I’ve made frequent use of the lecture notes from an MIT postgraduate subject called Atmospheric and Ocean Circulations. Long live the open education revolution!

For more information: http://drclimate.wordpress.com @DrClimate

Calendar

2013

2014

September

February 2014

16–20 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference & 19th American Meteorological Society AMS Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology Conference, Vienna, Austria.

2–6 94th AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, USA 12–14 20th AMOS National Conference, Hobart, Australia

16–20 36 Conference Breckenridge, CO, USA.

31–4 April 31st AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, California, USA

th

on

Radar

Meteorology,

26 Expected release of IPCC Working Group I 5th Assessment Report

March 2014

October 8–11 Greenhouse 2013, Adelaide Convention Centre, Adelaide, SA. 15–17 10th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Bowling Green, KY, USA.

December 9–13 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA

Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal

Articles — Vol. 63 No. 1, March 2013 Jeffrey et al. Australia’s CMIP5 submission using the CSIRO-Mk3.6 model.

Rashid et al. Evaluation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the ACCESS coupled model simulations for CMIP5.

Suppiah et al. Simulated and projected summer rainfall in tropical Australia: links to atmospheric circulation using the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 climate model.

Watterson et al. A skill-score based evaluation of simulated Australian climate.

Collier et al. Ocean circulation response to anthropogenicaerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in the CSIRO-Mk3.6 couple climate model.

Bi et al. The ACCESS coupled model: description, control climate and evaluation.

Kowalczyk et al. The land surface model component of ACCESS: description and impact on the simulated surface climatology.

Dix et al. The ACCESS coupled model: documentation of core CMIP5 simulations and initial results.

Marsland et al. Evaluation of ACCESS climate model ocean diagnostics in CMIP5 simulations.

Uotila et al. The sea-ice performance of the Australian climate models participating in the CMIP5.

Rashid et al. Atmospheric circulation features in the ACCESS model simulations for CMIP5: historical simulation and future projections.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 79

Catto et al. A global evaluation of fronts and precipitation in the ACCESS model.

Smith et al. The relative performance of Australian CMIP5 models based on rainfall and ENSO metrics.

Bi et al. ACCESS-OM: the ocean and sea-ice core of the ACCESS coupled model.

Sun et al. Modifications to atmospheric physical parameterizations aimed at improving SST simulations in the ACCESS coupled-model.

Regular features: Martin. Seasonal climate summary Southern Hemisphere (autumn 2012): The transition from La Niña to neutral.

Wu. Quarterly numerical weather prediction model performance summary—October to December 2012.

BAMOS Author Guidelines

For all submissions: The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (BAMOS) accepts short (<2500 words) contributions of original research work for peerreview and consideration in the “Science Articles” section.

Longer articles will be considered at the discretion of the Editor and Editor-in-Chief. Articles submitted to BAMOS should also be appropriate for the whole AMOS community (from weather enthusiasts to professional members) and should aim to be concise without using excessive scientific jargon.

For the peer-reviewed “Science Articles” section, authors should follow these guidelines: 1. Articles should be submitted as a PDF or Word document (or similar) for peer-review and include all figures and tables either within the main text or consecutively at the end of the article.

2. Articles should have a line spacing of 1.5 or more using a font size of 12. Articles should preferably be written using Times New Roman or Arial.

3. Articles should be split into sections, with the heading for each section numbered consecutively and using a font size of 14. For example (these are title examples, headings are made at the authors’ discretion):

1. Introduction

2. Method

3. Results

4. Conclusions

4. An abstract is not required; however, should the author(s) wish to produce one it should not be more than 150 words in length.

5. Acknowledgements to be included after the final work section and before the references.

6. References should follow these example formats: •

Journal Articles:

Jung, T., Ferranti, L. and Tompkins, A.M., 2006, Response to the summer of 2003 Mediterranean SST anomalies over Europe and Africa, Journal of Climate, 19, 5439–5454.

•

Books:

Holton, J.R., 2004, An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. Academic Press, New York. 535 pp.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.26 page 80

•

Book chapter:

Raymond, D.J., 1993. Chapter 2: Observational constraints on cumulus parameterizations. In: The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models, Meteorological Monographs, 24 (46), 17–28, American Meteorological Society, Boston, USA. •

Theses:

Trewin, B., 2001, Extreme temperature events in Australia.

PhD Thesis, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia.

•

Web sites:

Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2012, Bushfire history - Major bushfires in Victoria, www.dse. vic.gov.au/fire-and-other-emergencies/major-bushfiresin-victoria/ 7. We recommend that the author(s) make at least two suggestions for referees to undertake the peer-review.

8. Once peer-review has been completed, a final version of the document should be sent to the editor either in Word format or as plain text. The document should also include figure and table captions and the references but no figures. Figure files should be sent separately (they may be in any format and the editor will confer with the author(s) on the resolution and formatting).

9. Galley-proofs will be sent to the author(s) for final checking before publication.

BAMOS also accepts a wide range of non-peer-reviewed work, for example news items, charts from the past, conference reports, book reviews, biographical articles and meet a member. AMOS members are therefore encouraged to submit articles that would be of general interest to the AMOS community without necessarily requiring peer review. File formats should follow those given above; a word or plain text document should be submitted (which includes any figure captions and tables) along with any figure files given separately.

All articles should be either posted or emailed to the editor with any questions on the formatting also directed to the editor (see the inside back cover of this issue for contact details).

Contents Editorial...........................................................................................................................................................................57 President’s Column.........................................................................................................................................................58 News...............................................................................................................................................................................58 News from the Centres...................................................................................................................................................61 Conference report...........................................................................................................................................................62 Science Article................................................................................................................................................................63 M.T. Black, A.B. Pezza and P. Kreft—Explosive cyclogenesis in the south-west Pacific........................................................63

Article..............................................................................................................................................................................69 B. Trewin—AMOS Strategic Plan............................................................................................................................................69

Meet a Member..............................................................................................................................................................74 Snapshot.........................................................................................................................................................................76 Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin: 4 June 1957.....................................................................................................77 The Research Corner with Damien Irving.......................................................................................................................78

ISSN 1035-6576 Cover picture: “Plates of the Outback”: A supercell storm formed northeast of Hay (NSW), turned left and moved even further north into the outback near Hillston. The storm developed this amazing “stacked plates” structure. The storm formed late in the day, after the passage of an earlier cell, and produced an intense barrage of lightning, severe hail and damaging winds.

Image: AMOS member John Allen.

Unless specifically stated to the contrary, views expressed in the Bulletin are the personal views of the authors, and do not represent the views of the Society or any other organisation or institution to which the author(s) may be affiliated.

2013 AMOS Council Executive

President Vice-President Secretary Treasurer Past President

Blair Trewin Todd Lane Damien Irving Ian Watterson Neville Nicholls

Ordinary Members John Allen Andrew Klekociuk Robin Roberston Sandra Schuster Richard Wardle Perry Wiles

03-8344 9596 03 6232 3382 02-6268 8289 02-9272 8025 03-9905 4411 03-9669 4664

AMOS Administrative Officer

Jeanette Dargaville GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001 (attn: AMOS admin officer) Phone 0404 471 143 E-mail: admin_officer@amos.org.au

03-9669 4623 03-8344-6516 03-8344 6911 03-9239 4544 03-9902 0111

Sub-Committee Convenors Public Relations Awards 2014 Conference Education Membership

Centre Chairs NSW Hobart Melbourne ACT Perth Darwin Brisbane Adelaide

Vacant Mark Williams Andrew Marshall Phillip Riley Michael Hewson

0419 519 440 03-6232 5184 03-9669 4530 0408 379 373

Fiona Johnson Kelvin Michael Andrew Ballinger Clem Davis Merv Lynch Hakeem Shaik Hamish McGowan Andrew MacKinnon

02-9385 9769 03-6226 2977 04-3554-8981 02-6254 2861 08-9266 7540 08-8920 3814 07-3365 6651 08-8313 3875

Representatives AMOJ Science & Technology Australia

David Karoly

03 8344 4698

Steven Phipps

02-9385 8957

AMOS is represented on the relevant Australian Academy of Science committees..

2013 Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society ISSN 1035-6576

Editor

Duncan Ackerley Monash Weather and Climate School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University VIC 3800 Phone: 03-9902 4900 Fax: 03-9005 4403 Email:duncan.ackerley@monash.edu

Editor-in-chief

Stewart Allen Email: Stewart.Allen@bom.gov.au

Assistant Editors Diana Greenslade Blair Trewin Linden Ashcroft

Regional Sub-editors Michael Hewson (Brisbane) Caecilia Ewenz (Adelaide) Nicholas Tyrrell (Melbourne) Fiona Johnson (NSW) Clem Davis (ACT)

Contributors Blair Trewin Damien Irving

Advertising Manager Please contact the Admin. Officer.

Publisher

AMOS, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia

Contributed articles, news, announcements and correspondence for the Bulletin should be sent to the editor no later than 27 September 2013. They will be reviewed and the galley proofs returned to the author if requested. An ASCII version of the text is required via e-mail or digital media to minimise typographic errors.

The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society is produced and distributed with the assistance of CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and the Bureau of Meteorology.

AMOS Website: www.amos.org.au