Bulletin vol 25 no 1 feb 2012

AMOS

AustralianMeteorological & OceanographicSociety

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society Vol 25, No.1, February 2012 ISSN 1035-6576

Contents Editorial ............................................................................................................................................................................1 President’s Column ..........................................................................................................................................................1 News ................................................................................................................................................................................3 News from the Centres ....................................................................................................................................................4 Conference report ............................................................................................................................................................6 Articles .............................................................................................................................................................................7 Kuleshov and coauthors—Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program: Strengthening the capacity for seasonal prediction services in Pacific Countries ..................................................................................................................................... 7

Discussion Paper ............................................................................................................................................................12 Hewson—AMOS Membership: Leveraging the current vigour and relevance....................................................................12

Meet a Member .............................................................................................................................................................15 Snapshot ........................................................................................................................................................................16 Significant Mesoscale Oceanography ...........................................................................................................................17 Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin ..........................................................................................................................19 Calendar .........................................................................................................................................................................20

ISSN 1035-6576 Cover picture: Crepuscular rays at sunrise from Newport beach, New South Wales, 12 January 2012.

Image: Celestine Pfuhl (pfuhlc@gmail.com) Unless specifically stated to the contrary, views expressed in the Bulletin are the personal views of the authors, and do not represent the views of the Society or any other organisation or institution to which the author(s) may be affiliated.

Editorial

Hellos and goodbyes Welcome to the first issue of the AMOS Bulletin for 2012.

As usual, the year has started with a bang with the annual AMOS conference. The 18th AMOS conference was held in Sydney at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) this year, and I’m sure all of you who attended would agree that it was a great event. The variety of session topics, quality of presentations and spread of posters (not to forget morning and afternoon tea snacks) were all of a very high standard.

Stay tuned for a full conference report in the next issue.

A big thank you and congratulations to the organising committee, particularly convenor Jason Evans, who kept everything running smoothly and even managed to attend a few talks. The bar has been set very high for the next conference, to be held in Melbourne mid-February, 2013.

If you missed the Annual General Meeting (AGM) at the conference, 2012 also welcomes a new AMOS executive.

Vice-President Blair Trewin steps into the role of President, adding to his large pile of other AMOS duties.

Blair’s dedication and attention to detail have already proved invaluable to the running of our society, and it will be great to have him at the helm. Supporting him is new Vice-President Todd Lane, who was recently awarded the Australian Academy of Science Medal for outstanding early career research in the earth sciences (see the News section in this issue).

Our outgoing President Neville Nicholls is to be congratulated on his tireless work over the past two years, steering AMOS in a more professional direction.

Neville has led AMOS through some significant changes, including a financial overhaul, a move to a more online

communication strategy, and the restructuring of our membership options. He has also managed to contribute regularly to the Bulletin, and be a very supportive President for this young editor.

Finally, 2012 brings a new editor to the AMOS Bulletin in Dr Duncan Ackerley. Duncan is a postdoctoral fellow at Monash University and comes to us after completing his PhD at Reading in the UK and three years at NIWA in Wellington. I know Duncan will do a great job and bring his own personal flair to this fine publication. He looks forward to introducing himself to you in the April issue.

With that, I will sign off my last editorial. I have truly enjoyed my role as AMOS editor, and have learnt a great deal in the last two years. Many thanks to the editorial team, particularly Editor-in-Chief Stewart Allen, for their patience, wisdom and ability to spot an error. Jeanette Dargaville has also done a lot of work in the development of the Bulletin over the last year and continues to be a great help with the printing and distribution of every issue, so my thanks to Jeanette.

I’d also like to thank the regular contributors and regional sub-editors for continuing to provide articles and news pieces issue after issue. Finally, thank you to all of you who submitted and reviewed ideas, articles and photographs, and those who took the time to respond to emails and questionnaires for the Bulletin. The Bulletin does not exist without your contributions, so please keep them coming!

Linden Ashcroft

President’s Column

2011 President’s Report One of the main purposes for a society such as AMOS is to enhance communication between, and with, members.

Over the past year or so a number of strategies have been put in place to enhance communication with members of our Society. The main medium for communication is, of course, the Bulletin, and this has been edited very effectively by Linden Ashcroft for the past two years. The format of the Bulletin has been extensively reworked by Linden and Jeanette Dargaville, the Society’s Administration Officer, the first reworking for many years.

As well, the Bulletin has now “gone” electronic. I believe these changes, along with the continued excellent editing

by Linden, have resulted in an even more useful Bulletin.

The Society owes a great deal to Linden for her dedication and innovativeness. She has indicated that she now needs to focus on completing her PhD, so is stepping down. I

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 1

wish to record my personal gratitude to Linden for her work on the AMOS Bulletin.

Jeanette Dargaville initiated the distribution of a regular email newsletter, to supplement the communication through the Bulletin. This means that members each month receive a “formal” communication from the Society, either the Bulletin or the Newsletter. As well, the AMOS web page provides further communication, including each month the President’s Column (a practice established by my predecessor Richard Wardle). We now regularly advertise vacant positions on the web page and in the Newsletter—a practice we hope is valuable for members.

The move to an electronic AMOS Bulletin will mean a great deal to the finances of the Society by dramatically reducing our printing costs. Previously, printing costs

were typically more than we were gathering in annual subscriptions. This change in publication arrangements, along with a change in the membership structure, will lead to a more secure financial position for the Society, and will offset the increase in expenses that we have had to accept to ensure our financial statements are accurate and meet statutory requirements.

AMOS has also made its presence felt online in the last year, through the social networking websites Facebook and Twitter. These pages are active with members reporting on events, submitting photos and discussing extreme weather across the world. At last count there are over 350 people following these pages, with interest growing all the time. Well done to Ailie Gallant and Stewart Allen for spearheading this communication strategy and making AMOS available to members in an exciting new way.

The membership structure has been revised this year, after extensive discussions at Council and General meetings. I hope that, over the next few years, many of my experienced colleagues will join me in moving to the new category of “Professional Member”. The changes that have been made with regard to membership mean that those who do not earn their living from atmospheric science or oceanography can join the Society and pay a substantially lower annual subscription than those of us for whom the Society is a truly professional one. I hope that this move will result in a fairer Society and an increase in membership, as well as securing our financial position.

We have also clarified the fees payable by retired members, again to ensure fairness and equity between members.

Our finances, apart from the changes noted above, have also benefited from work by Jeanette to simplify our financial processes, including arrangements with the Regional Centres. This has allowed us to close many bank accounts with small balances that were attracting bank fees, and helped ensure we had greater accountability, at the same time simplifying tasks for Regional Centre committees.

Work continues to improve and streamline the arrangements for our annual conference. Our 2011 conference, in Wellington, New Zealand (in association with the New Zealand Meteorological Society), was a great success, despite being held “off-shore”. The 2012 conference in Sydney is looking like it will be the largest conference AMOS has ever held without the involvement of another society, with well over 300 registrants expected.

Jason Evans and his team have already put in a lot of work, and I am very much looking forward to what will be a very successful conference.

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The recognition we give to members, through prizes and awards, is very important. Dr Lisa Alexander is a very deserving winner of the Priestley Medal for 2011. We have worked to improve the details of our awards on the AMOS web pages, including listing previous winners of the awards. We also now list Fellows and also Honorary Members, in recognition of their contributions to our Society and science. We have very few Fellows, so I encourage others (you know who you are!) to complete the quite simple requirements for nomination to the level of Fellow of the Society.

The work that has been done to revise the membership, streamline the financial arrangements, improve communication, and reduce avoidable costs such as printing and bank fees, means that we are now in a position to broaden our appeal and membership. At the initiative of Michael Hewson, we are now discussing techniques to increase our membership, and to broaden the appeal of the Society (see the Discussion paper on page 12 of this issue).

This is my final “duty” as President of the Society. I have very much enjoyed my deeper involvement with AMOS over the past two years, and look forward to a continued involvement. But I am also glad to be passing on the role of President to Dr Blair Trewin, who has had a long commitment to the Society in other roles. With Blair at the helm, and with the continued terrific support from Council, from the Regional Centres, and from the membership, I expect further strengthening of the Society over the next two years.

Finally, I want to thank Jeanette Dargaville, especially, for her hard work in supporting the Society. She has been a delight to work with. The Executive of the Society, Blair, Ian Watterson (Treasurer), and Damien Irving (Secretary), has been very helpful and they have been extremely effective as individuals and a group. The contributions from the other members of Council, who have had to sit through some lengthy Council meetings, have been terrific. And I cannot conclude without acknowledging the committees for the various Regional Centres—the activities carried out by these Centres are perhaps the most important activities of the Society, with the Bulletin and the annual conference. I have deeply appreciated the efforts of those in the Regional Centres who arrange these activities, and thereby inspire our members.

Neville Nicholls

News

Australia helps Pacific Island neighbours tackle climate change Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Media release

The Minister for Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Greg Combet, recently announced the release of a landmark research report entitled Climate Change in the Pacific.

The report covers three years of research by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and presents for the fi rst time local climate change projections for the Pacific Region.

“Australia is committed to assisting our neighbours to deal with the impacts of climate change,” Mr Combet said.

“This new information will be invaluable in supporting governments and communities with planning and prioritising adaptation responses.”

“Climate Change in the Pacific is being released with three new online tools to help Pacific Island Countries understand how the climate is changing in the Pacific and is likely to change in the future,” he said.

The landmark report details future climate projections for 15 small islands states: East Timor, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, Niue, Cook Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Nauru, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia and Palau.

“Pacific Island Countries and East Timor are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Until now though,

understanding of climate change in the Pacific has been limited. Country-specific information on local climate risks is vital to assist our island neighbours plan to adapt to the impacts of climate change in the future,” Mr Combet said.

Climate Change in the Pacific is presented in two volumes.

The fi rst provides an overview of climate change across the Pacific region and the second details future climate projections for each Pacific Island Country.

The report is a product of the Australian Government’s Pacific Climate Change Science Program, part of Australia’s five-year, $328.2 million International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI) which is helping to address high priority adaptation needs in partner countries, focussing on small island developing states and least developed countries.

To download the report visit: www.pacificclimatechangescience.org.

The Climate Futures online tool is available at: www.pacificclimatefutures.net.

Turn to page 7 for more details about other work going on in the Pacific as a part of the ICCAI — Ed.

Todd Lane receives Australian Academy of Science award AMOS member Todd Lane has been awarded the Anton Hales Medal as a part of the Australian Academy of Science (AAS)’s 2012 awards for scientific excellence.

The Anton Hales Medal is given to outstanding researchers in the field of Earth Sciences, and is one of nine awards given by the AAS honouring scientists under the age of 40. Dr Lane is a Senior Lecturer and an Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellow at the University of Melbourne’s School of Earth Sciences, as well as a Chief Investigator in the ARC’s Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. He has also recently been elected as the Vice-President of AMOS. Dr Lane’s primary research focus is on mesoscale atmospheric dynamics. As the AAS describes, he uses “state-of-the-art computer models [to examine] processes such as thunderstorms, airflow over mountains, heavy precipitation events, and bushfire weather. He has Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 3

also conducted extensive research on turbulence near thunderstorms and the hazards they pose to commercial aircraft, and is currently working on improving methods for turbulence avoidance.” Dr Lane is an international expert on the role of thunderstorms in gravity wave generation and has made many important contributions to the study of of mesoscale meteorology and cloud processes.

Dr Lane completed his undergraduate studies and PhD at Monash University in 2000 and has published over 30 papers in the last decade. He worked in various positions at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado after completing his PhD, before returning to Melbourne in 2005. He will receive his medal at the AAS’s annual conference at the start of May. Further information: www.science.org.au.

Priestley Medal 2011 awarded to Lisa Alexander Alvin Stone

Communications Officer, Centre of Excellence Climate System Science, UNSW Dr Lisa Alexander has been named the 2011 recipient of the AMOS Priestley Medal. The Priestley Medal is awarded to younger scientists, preferably under the age of 40, for personal excellence in meteorological, oceanographic or climate research carried out substantially within Australia.

Dr Alexander is based at UNSW, and is a Chief Investigator with the ARC’s Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. She won the award for her continuing research into climate extremes in Australia and internationally.

Climate Change Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report.The research also provided the first good evidence that natural climate variability could not account for the changes that have been observed in extremes across Australia.

Dr Alexander was presented the Priestley Medal by incoming AMOS president Blair Trewin at the recent AMOS conference dinner.

Dr Alexander has developed a significant international reputation and through research has provided convincing evidence that future changes in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Australia will be strongly dependent on the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. She is one of the most highly cited atmospheric scientists in the past decade (2649 citations since her first publication in 2001).

A key achievement of Lisa’s was to fundamentally revise the analysis of temperature and precipitation extremes through the development of the first gridded datasets on a new global scale. These results contributed significantly to the key conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Priestley Medal winner 2011, Dr Lisa Alexander. Image: Kieron Low.

News from the Centres

Canberra Centre news Clem Davis

Chair, Canberra Centre The Canberra Centre held its AGM–Christmas party BBQ on 30 November together with a student presentation night, where three Honours and Phd students presented their work. Despite the rain, the evening was very well attended. We were lucky as the venue (the CSIRO Pye Lab) had an indoor area where we could eat (something we took into account when we planned the event!).

The presentation prize of $100 was awarded to Marita Smith (Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University) for her talk on “A record of 300 years of sea-surface temperature in the Tasman Sea”.

Undergraduate student prizes of $150 for 2nd and 3rd year were also awarded. As two 2nd year students could not be separated they were judged joint winners and both

Margi Bohm and Patrick Collins.

Margi Bohm and Wilson Wee.

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received $150. All prize winners also received certificates.

The 2nd year winners were James Tochuss and Patrick Collins from the Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA). The 3rd year prize was given to Wilson Wee, also from ADFA. At the AGM held between main course and dessert, a new committee was elected. Margi Bohm stood down as Chair after her two year stint while Clem Davis stood down as Secretary/Treasurer, a position he has held since the ACT branch commenced in 2000. Annette Hirsch also stood down as she is moving to UNSW to commence a PhD. The new committee is: t

Clem Davis (Chair—I couldn’t go that easily)

t

Robin Robertson (Secretary/Treasurer)

t

Matthew Bell (Website Manager)

t

Margi Bohm

t

Bob Cechet

t

Gavin O’Brien

t

Stuart Nulty.

We have already set the dates for our theme meetings for 2012 on a bi-monthly basis at the CSIRO Discovery Centre, with the first on 15 March. Our guest speaker will be someone most of us know well: Dr Greg Holland.

Details of our meetings will be placed on the website and anyone visiting Canberra at those times is invited to attend. If you send an email, we may be able to arrange transport.

ACT AMOS will also be organising two half-day workshops on 18th and 19th of August during National Science Week again at the CSIRO Discovery Centre.

The ACT branch has been able to attract several student members this last year. As the result of a suggestion at the AGM, the committee will set up a student sub-committee to organise social functions, so they can meet each other and perhaps even get us “oldies” along. However, anything finishing after 9pm will probably rule a lot of us out.

Margi Bohm and Marita Smith.

Indoor BBQ at Pye lab CSIRO. All images: Clem Davis.

NSW Centre news Fiona Johnson

Vice Chair and Publicity, NSW Centre The AMOS NSW Centre held its AGM on Wednesday 30 November at the Hero of Waterloo, a historic pub in The Rocks in Sydney, with dinner and a talk by Rob Webb, Acting NSW Regional Director at the Bureau of Meteorology. Rob’s talk was on “The Inside Scoop on Modern Weather Forecasting” and provided numerous insights into the improvements in forecasting over the past few decades, highlighted by the accurate forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Yasi in early 2011.

The following committee was elected for 2012 at the AGM: t

Steven Phipps (Chair)

t

Fiona Johnson (Vice Chair and Publicity)

t

Michelle Ho (Secretary)

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t

Ian Macadam (Treasurer)

t

David Hutchinson

t

Anthony Kiem

t

Helen McGregor

t

Sandra Schuster

t

Rob Webb.

With a new and enthusiastic committee, the NSW Regional Centre is looking forward to a great 2012. We also wish outgoing secretary, Caroline Ummenhofer, all the best for her upcoming research appointment in Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Conference report

19th International Congress of Biometeorology 5–7 December 2011, Auckland, New Zealand Stephanie Jacobs School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne

It was a Sunday afternoon when I arrived in Auckland for my first ever conference. It was the 19th International Congress of Biometeorology (ICB2011). I was scared, nervous and excited, but mostly soaking wet due to some serious rain and lack of an umbrella. After I dried off and got settled in my hotel, I went to the conference icebreaker held at the conference venue, The University of Auckland Business School. While I was tempted to spend the evening relaxing in the comfort and solitude of my hotel room, I decided to be brave and use the conference opportunities (and free refreshments) to the fullest. Two refreshments later and I had made enough friends to join for dinner.

ICB2011 ran from Monday 5 December to Wednesday 7 December, with registration and the ice-breaker planned for the Sunday beforehand. Biometeorology is an interdisciplinary science aimed at exploring the interactions between atmospheric processes and living organisms, and the theme of the conference was Climate and Society. There was a wide range of scientists attending including meteorologists, geographers, social scientists, health scientists, medical researchers, anthropologists and epidemiologists.

The conference officially began on Monday with the opening and the first plenary speaker, Professor Tony McMichael from the Australian National University

(ANU) College of Medicine, Biology and Environment.

He spoke about the need for scientists of all disciplines to work together with mutual respect and embrace the links between them; highly appropriate for the biometeorology conference.

After a delicious morning tea, the three parallel sessions began, including the first of the three symposiums: ANU’s Tord Kjellstrom on “Climate Impacts on Working People in Hot Climates”. This drew a large crowd and eventually had to relocate to a larger theatre. In the symposium many interesting ideas were put forward including some healthy debate on which thermal comfort index is superior.

Considering I am using one for my Master’s research project this had a particularly strong impact on me, until I was reassured over lunch that everyone has their own “pet” index and I should not be too concerned. Other talks for the day focussed on modelling, animals, heat exposure, climate, society and tourism. Monday night hosted the official conference dinner on The Floating Pavillion in Auckland Harbour. I did not attend but the entertainment of traditional Polynesian dancing was said to be spectacular!

Tuesday began with an “Extreme” session, which was where I first recognised that a popular theme for the conference was heat stress and heat related mortality.

While extreme cold is generally thought to be a large

Polynesian dancers at the conference icebreaker. Image: Michael J. Allen.

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killer, heat waves are the new trending topic after the 2003 European heat wave caused over 30,000 excess deaths.

With a warming world, heat waves are seen as a bigger threat to the general population, especially if they are elderly or do not have access to an air conditioner. The “Extreme” session ran parallel to “Built”, which focussed on how the climate affects building structures, and a symposium on Phenology, further highlighting the wide range of topics available to conference attendees. The first of the poster sessions was during afternoon tea, and seemed quite informal compared to what I was expecting.

I soon learnt that this was typical of the conference, which many claimed to be their favourite. After the last session of the day I made use of happy hour with some of my new friends and explored Auckland City. We looked at the main shopping and food strips, the harbour and even passed Occupy Auckland! While walking back to my hotel I could not contain my excitement and had to make some international phone calls to tell everyone how much fun my first conference was and about all the amazing people I had met.

Wednesday was the final day of the conference and included sessions focussed on human health, thermal health and risk, climate and society, climate and health, bioclimate assessment, extremes, and social and non-communicable

diseases. Continuing with my interests, I attended the climate, health and extreme sessions. I heard about many different heat wave warning systems and the mitigation measures that are being taken to protect people against future heat stress. For lunch on Wednesday there was a meeting of the Student and New Professional group, for new biometeorologists. This provided a great networking opportunity as well as a chance to discuss possible future projects, such as the nearly finished Biometeorology Glossary which was discussed at the first Student and New Professional meeting at ICB2008 in Tokyo.

On Wednesday afternoon during the closing ceremony, the next conference date and location was announced (Cleveland 2014), before everyone went upstairs for final drinks. This was where the real partying started.

Dinner was at a Thai restaurant, where I introduced many Americans to the joys of a lemon, lime and bitters.

Afterwards, I found myself at a trendy Auckland bar with some middle-aged professors included in our group.

When it came time to leave and head back to my hotel, I was enthusiastically hugged by everyone in our group, and with many promises of keeping in contact I realised that conferences weren’t scary at all, they were super fun!

For more information on the conference, visit: www.icb2011.com.

Articles

Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program: Strengthening the capacity for seasonal prediction services in Pacific Countries Y. Kuleshov 1 D. Jones1, H. Hendon2, A. Charles1, A. Cottrill2, E.-P. Lim2, S. Langford2, R. de Wit1, K. Shelton2, C. M. Spillman2, A. Amjadali1, J. Pahalad1, S. Kaniaha3, D. McClymont4

National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 3 Vanuatu Meteorological and Geohazards Department and Vanuatu National Advisory Committee on Climate Change, Port Vila, Vanuatu 4 DHM Environmental Software Engineering Pty Ltd Email address for correspondence: y.kuleshov@bom.gov.au 1 2

1. Project overview The! Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP) is one of four components of the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative—an Australian Government initiative investing $328.2 million over five years (2008–2013) to address high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the AsiaPacific region. PASAP’s aim is to strengthen the capacity of Pacific Island Countries and Timor-Leste to assess their vulnerabilities to climate change through the provision of information, tools and training, and to incorporate climate change adaptation into planning and development strategies.

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In this paper we describe the “Climate prediction capacities strengthened in National Meteorological Services” project which has been administered by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) as part of PASAP. This project worked with countries both north and south of the equator to deliver improved seasonal forecasting technologies and ability. Subsequently referred to as the “Partner Countries”, those involved were Timor-Leste and 14 Pacific Island Countries: Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, Kiribati, Fiji, Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Palau, Nauru, Cook Islands, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.

Seasonal and interannual climate variability is a major factor in determining the vulnerability of many Pacific

Island Countries to climate change, particularly due to the large impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the regional climate. As highlighted by recent experience in Australia (e.g., Cai and Cowan 2008) and internationally (e.g., Rahmstorf and Coumou, 2011), many of the earliest impacts of climate change are felt with the interaction of variability and change, giving rise to events outside past historical records. One effective and low cost option to reduce vulnerability to climate change is to improve the accuracy, availability and use of forecasts (Nicholls, 2011), which is the primary motivation of this project.

Another motivation for improving seasonal predictions relates to the problems faced by statistical models in a changing climate. At present, the meteorological services in the! Partner Countries largely! employ statistical models for seasonal prediction using a desktop software program called Seasonal Climate Outlooks for Pacific Island Countries (SCOPIC) which was developed under the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) funded Pacific Islands–Climate Prediction Project(PI-CPP). Statistical models have proven to be a useful source of information for preparing seasonal climate predictions for Australia and Pacific Island Countries. However, the statistical models cannot reliably account for aspects of climate variability and change that are not represented in the historical records. In a warming climate, environmental indicators used as predictors, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), are now frequently outside of the range of historical records. Consequently, prediction skill of the statistical models is degrading, and potentially providing unrealistic results.

In contrast, dynamical physics-based models implicitly include the effects of a changing climate whatever its character or cause and can predict outcomes not seen previously. The transition from a statistical to a dynamical prediction system provides more valuable and applicable climate information to a wide range of climate sensitive sectors throughout the countries of the Pacific region, and is a key part of the project we describe.

The BoM has developed a dynamical seasonal forecast system called the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), which is a state-of-the-art seasonal to interannual forecast system based on a coupled model of the ocean and atmosphere (Wang et al., 2008). The model has good skill at predicting El Niño and La Niña events up to nine months in advance and it is capable of simulating the spatial and temporal variability of tropical rainfall associated with ENSO (Hendon et al., 2009).

Consequently, the variability of rainfall patterns across the Pacific region is skilfully predicted by POAMA at short lead times. In the PASAP project, we have developed and deployed (in prototype) seasonal climate predictions based upon POAMA. Outputs of the PASAP project provide meteorological agencies with an additional tool to analyse SSTs, air temperature, pressure and rainfall and

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prepare more accurate seasonal climate predictions for the future (Figure 1).

2. Delivering seasonal forecasts for Partner Countries There are a number of challenges in delivering seasonal predictions based on dynamical climate models to Partner Countries. The most obvious one is that of communication.

Many small island countries have variable and unreliable internet access, meaning that high bandwidth options are not viable for information dissemination. There is also the issue of local capacity to produce, use and interpret seasonal climate forecasts within Meteorological Services as many offices are small. A priority in delivering this project has been to ensure local Meteorological Services have the capacity to deliver seasonal forecast services into the future. This has meant a focus on the long-term sustainability of solutions and ability of Meteorological Services to use products and tools from the project.

The technical solution has focussed on an architecture for linking dynamical model-based predictions to achieve user-friendly, low-bandwith, decision-support systems.

The system is composed of three main steps, shown in Figure 2 and further outlined below: 1.

The coupled dynamical model (POAMA) is run by the BoM simulating the evolution of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system out to nine months in the future.

2.

Forecast products are generated from dynamical model output using data analysis software. The resulting derived forecast products (step 2a in Figure 2) are stored in self-describing files with additional metadata to support the software clients that deliver the outlooks.

3.

Forecast data are exposed via a data server.

4.

Scheduled processes access and reformat the data for SCOPIC access.

5.

Custom web services using the data server’s interface to the forecast data to provide maps, data and contour plots.

6.

The PASAP Seasonal Outlook Portal consumes the outputs of the custom web services, and displays model-based outlooks as overlays on dynamical maps using geospatial web services (step 9 in Figure 2) and standard plots.

The project provides indices (e.g., NINO3, NINO3.4), spatial and point seasonal forecasts of the ensemble mean and probabilities in tercile categories, as well as comprehensive verification and climatology information.

We have used a simple calibration based on historical observations of rainfall, temperature and SSTs to ensure that forecasts are reliable (i.e., probabilities match observed frequencies). The significant predictability that ENSO provides in the Pacific region means that forecasts tend to be highly skilled, except in the vicinity of the South Pacific Convergence Zone.

Figure 1. An example ensemble mean rainfall anomaly (top) and bottom tercile probability (lower) prediction for October–November–December 2011 over the western Pacific Ocean. This shows an elevated risk of below average rainfall associated with the 2011 La Niña event. Recent water shortages in Tuvalu (marked as Funafuti on the map) highlights just how vulnerable small nations can be to extreme climate conditions, and the dry outlook for the next season gives important information for governments and aid agencies to plan their assistance.

A key consideration has been the use of open source solutions at each step, with a focus on adapting solutions already demonstrated within the BoM or internationally.

Further information on the details of the technical solution can be found in Charles et al. (2011). This approach means that improvements made to BoM systems for Australia can, in future, benefit Meteorological Services of Pacific Countries and Timor-Leste, and vice versa.

3. PI-CPP and PASAP joint workshop A focus of this project has been building local capacity to use seasonal climate forecasts. As part of this, a PICPP and PASAP joint workshop was held at the Vanuatu Meteorological and Geohazards Department, Port Vila,

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Vanuatu from 19–23 September 2011. The objectives of this workshop were to: t

Introduce the most recent developments under the PASAP project

t

Provide high-level training on the application of dynamical climate models for seasonal prediction

t

Introduce the new PASAP seasonal prediction webportal

t

Provide training on the use and interpretation of dynamical seasonal predictions for Partner Countries.

The latest version of SCOPIC software which has been used routinely over six years to generate empirically based

Figure 2. An illustration of the high-level architecture of the seasonal forecast generation and publication system.

seasonal predictions in the Pacific was also introduced to participants. This version of SCOPIC includes seasonal prediction inputs from POAMA. Dynamical model forecasts from POAMA are being delivered through a dedicated seasonal prediction portal1 as well as through the desktop prediction system SCOPIC2. The workshop was attended by participants from all 15 Partner Countries (see Figure 3).

Scientists from the PASAP team presented lectures on: t

The physical basis of seasonal predictability

t

The historical skill of the BoM’s seasonal prediction model, POAMA, in predicting ocean and atmospheric conditions across the Pacific

t

The PASAP seasonal prediction web portal, a new web based interface for navigating the latest seasonal forecasts based on the BoM’s coupled model.

Participants also engaged in a series of exercises using the portal to generate seasonal predictions for their local region which they described to the group in a number of successful presentations. This activity affirmed that participants had effectively absorbed the material. A detailed workshop report is available from the lead author.

An important part of the workshop was to obtain feedback from the participants on ways to capitalise on the existing projects and also new projects likely to be supported by the AusAID and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) for the next two to five years under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation planning Program (PACCSAP) and Climate and Oceans Support Program for the Pacific (COSPPac). Three new projects on seasonal prediction which extend current PASAP projects under PACCSAP were introduced. These projects are looking in detail 1

poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap.

2

More details at www.bom.gov.au/climate/pi-cpp/scopic.shtml.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 10

at the seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones, the seasonal prediction of extreme ocean temperatures (and the associated occurrence of coral bleaching), and the seasonal prediction of sea level.

4. New projects The infrastructure and knowledge built in the first PASAP project is now being used to explore the variability, predictability and ultimately the seasonal prediction of extreme events that are anticipated to be impacted by climate change. These are briefly described below.

a) Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas in the Partner Countries.

Interannual variability in the intensity and distribution of tropical cyclones is large, and presently greater than any trends that are ascribable to climate change alone. With global warming, predicting tropical cyclone occurrence based on historical relationships is problematic. We found that predictors such as SSTs now frequently lie outside the range of past variability, meaning that it is not possible to find historical “analogues” for the seasonal conditions often faced by the Partner Countries. This project will improve the scientific understanding of tropical cyclone variability, with the aim of improving the accuracy of seasonal forecasts available to Partner Countries using POAMA. An outcome for the project will be dynamical model-based predictions of tropical cyclones marking a substantial step beyond what is currently made available to Partner Country National Meteorological Services.

b) Sea surface temperatures and coral bleaching Elevated SSTs are a primary trigger for mass coral bleaching events, which can lead to widespread damage and increased mortality of reef systems. Degraded coral reefs present many problems, including long-term loss of tourism and potential loss or degradation of fisheries.

Monitoring and predicting thermal stress events assists a range of adaptive and management activities that could improve reef resilience to extreme conditions. This project will develop dynamical POAMA-based predictions for extreme ocean temperature conditions in territorial waters of the Partner Countries.

c) Seasonal prediction of sea level rise Sea level rise is expected to have a profound impact on the countries of the Western Pacific. Currently, sea level related impacts are felt through extreme events, seasonal to interannual sea level changes and long-term sea level rise. The impacts of sea level rise are many, including the loss of amenity (e.g., loss of beaches, erosion and damage to physical assets) and loss of agricultural production due to salt water intrusion and increasing salinity. Currently, episodic flooding from sea water occurs on a number of islands during king tides, even in the absence of severe weather. This project will evaluate seasonal sea level predictions and thus inform management of seasonal changes in sea level, including an evolving risk assessment associated with extreme sea levels in the presence of interannual variability of sea level and its long-term rise.

5. Ongoing support A feature of earlier projects which has been effective in building capacity has been the provision of ongoing support to Partner Countries to help them most effectively use and interpret SCOPIC and POAMA products. This occurs through participation in a monthly telephone hook-up where BoM climate scientists assist in explaining current forecasts and are available to answer questions.

This open forum provides a valuable ongoing learning and capacity building activity, reinforcing the learnings from the workshops. Secondly, PASAP scientists remain available on an “on call basis� through email to clarify

points of confusion or assist with technical issues. All of this is important to assist in building true local ability to deliver accurate and well-informed seasonal forecasts.

This approach will be incorporated into future PACCSAP projects.

In the round-table discussion at the recent workshop, Partner Country participants highlighted the importance of climate studies focussed on improving the understanding of climate variability in Pacific Island Countries, noting that climate variability interacts with climate change to cause many of the first felt impacts of climate change.

Improved knowledge of extreme climatic events, with the assistance of tailored forecast tools, will help enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of Pacific Island Countries under climate change. Outcomes of projects such as PI-CPP, PCCSP and PASAP provide National Meteorological Services with valuable information and tools, and regional training workshops and in-country visits contribute significantly to improving ability at the meteorological services to support adaptive responses to climate variability and change. This approach of providing quality scientific tools, coupled with training and ongoing support appears to be a highly effective capacity building model.

6. Acknowledgement AusAID and the DCCCE provided support for the PICPP, PCCSP and PASAP projects.

7. References Cai, W. and Cowan, T. (2008). Evidence of impacts from rising temperature on inflows to the MurrayDarling Basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L07701, doi:10.1029/2008GL033390.

Figure 3. Participants from 15 Partner Countries at the opening of the workshop in Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 11

Charles, A., McClymont, D., de Wit, R. and Jones, D. (2011). A software architecture for seasonal climate forecasts in the tropical Pacific. 19th World IMACS Congress and MODSIM09 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand and International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, July 2011.

(Proceedings in press).

Hendon, H.H., Lim, E., Wang, G., Alves, O. and Hudson, D. (2009). Prospects for predicting two flavors of El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L19713, doi:10.1029/2009GL040100.

Nicholls, N. (2011). Presidents Column May 2011: Climate change and the weather. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 24, 53–54.

Rahmstorf, S. and Coumou, D. (2011). Increase of extreme events in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1101766108.

Wang, G., Alves, O., Hudson, D., Hendon, H., Liu, G. and Tseitkin, F. (2008). SST skill assessment from the new POAMA-1.5 System. BMRC Research Letter No.8.

Discussion Paper

AMOS Membership: Leveraging the current vigour and relevance Michael Hewson

Chair, Membership subcommitee Address for correspondence: m.hewson@uq.edu.au

“The future is not what it used to be” Malcolm Rifkind “There is no need to change—survival is not mandatory” W Edwards Deming Introduction The Council of AMOS wants to build capacity for the benefit of its membership. The core concern is medium term plateauing of membership at around 500 which might be far less than its membership potential based on the staffing of organisations involved in AMOS constituent disciplines.

This discussion paper necessarily addresses four aspects: 1.

the need for more study (therefore clarifying the “why”)

2.

tactical actions (in a shorter term, with point (1) above being a caveat)

3.

a strategic plan (for the longer term)

4.

change management imperatives (because they help achieve outcomes).

This discussion paper does not cover all related issues by any means, it merely summarises current conversation for further development. In the interests of helpful guidance, a proposal that could be put to members is canvassed.

Establishing Facts The question is—why does AMOS membership not grow?

Does AMOS membership need to grow? Despite vigour and relevance in AMOS, and the need for AMOS to engage in key societal debates related to its disciplines, why is AMOS not considered the professional organisation of choice?

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 12

Anecdotally, and generally speaking, the AMOS council believes AMOS is not as attractive to younger potential members as it could be—nor does its membership appear strong in key constituent organisations (such as the Bureau of Meteorology or CSIRO). Further, AMOS might appear (for reasons that are unclear) to suit members in academic institutions whereas AMOS has always wanted to attract a wide membership base from the interested community, practitioners and theorists alike. Indeed, it appears that some relevant disciplines (for example climate-related researchers and environment managers) are under-represented in the AMOS membership.

AMOS members describe being surprised at who in their professional circles choose not be AMOS members, but retain membership of similar international organisations.

Still anecdotally, AMOS membership may suffer because it does not have the capacity (or critical mass in terms of member numbers and therefore revenue) to offer membership value of similar international organisations, such as the Royal Meteorological Society (RMetSoc) or the American Meteorological Society (AMS). This is an “economy of scale” issue. Also similarly, AMOS reasonably wants to be the professional body for Australian atmospheric and oceanographic endeavour in terms of personal support and fellowship. Clearly, a society of 500 members is unable all at once to pique the professional interest of a wide range of discipline constituents, be “in the news” informing discipline debate (geo-engineering climate to pick just one topic) nor be of sufficient interest to the community hobbyist.

Some AMOS Regional Centres report difficulty in creating a professional meeting calendar, as the critical mass for such activity is simply not currently in place. Anecdotally too, many community institutions report retaining aging members and not recruiting new members, effectively becoming organisations with limited life spans.

The key word thus far has been “anecdotally”. Research on the questions posed earlier is needed, and for a key reason. AMOS should avoid the experience of institutions that take frenetic action to bolster membership (using techniques that worked 20 years go) with a gain of a few members—thus not achieving the “step change” required.

Such Sisyphean activity saps the morale of a limited membership, paradoxically creating decline. It’s otherwise known as “going round in circles”.

way of saying longer term beneficial organisational evolution) is required. Sadly, some strategic plans are neither strategic (the what) nor plans (the how) and therefore do not achieve an outcome (membership sufficient to sustain required services). Clearly a member service inventory and service level expectation is a key document in this process, so that a strategic plan excites members and outcomes are clear.

There are, arguably, a number of ways to grow an institution’s “economy of scale”: 1.

Merge with like organisations in Australia

2.

Merge with like organisations geographically (for example; New Zealand or Southeast Asia)

3.

Become a national chapter of a respected like organisation (like AMS)

While recognising the imperative to conduct research to guide future action, the AMOS council posits that disciplines related to meteorology and oceanography may be grossly under-represented in its membership. This might represent an untapped source of members.

4.

Envision a new “Earth Systems Science” organisation (like the American or the European Geophysical Unions, AGU/EGU)

5.

Do several of the above (for example; a Southeast Asian Geophysical Union).

On one hand, those working in climate research may well be unaware that the AMOS remit for professional practice extends beyond weather timeframes. Yet, on the other hand, AMOS council notes that weather forecasters show little interest in AMOS. Similarly, and by way of example only, the Brisbane Regional Centre has members who work closely with quite a large number of oceanographic researchers who currently have no interest in AMOS.

There are not too many organisations with which option (1) would accrue the desired result (the Clean Air Society of Australia and New Zealand or the Australasian Quaternary Association perhaps). A combination of option (1) and (2) was successful for the evolution of the Surveying and Spatial Sciences Institute of Australia.

Option (2) may be feasible—but perhaps for a medium term gain only. Since AMOS was born out of the RMetSoc, it is doubtful option (3) would be supported or that it would achieve the desired result, although it is the easiest to achieve in terms of logistics (which is attractive). Option (4) has the potential to achieve the desired result but it represents a giant evolutionary step. Arguably option (4) would require paid staff to implement. Option (5) being an extension of option (4) might be considered at some much later stage—the work load to achieve such a step is beyond the current organisation.

A Tactical Response

Taken together, these perspectives would appear to point to the need for a marketing campaign. A cautionary note— marketing cannot fix service deficiencies if they exist (a question for research), they are short term initiatives and should only be repeated if measured outcomes justify the same.

One suggestion is that a marketing campaign engages the leadership of discipline employing organisations: the BoM, CSIRO, CAWCR, environment consultancies (that conduct the burgeoning environment legislation compliance studies), government planning agencies that oversee those studies or engage in climate change policy making, relevant academic institutions, geographical societies and the interested general public. The nature of this “engagement” might assist key organisations to acquire a professional body membership culture amongst its employees—similar to how some organisations engender a philanthropic culture.

Given the imperative of climate science discussion, adding the word “climate” to the AMOS name (becoming ACMOS), might be a small evolutionary step toward an outcome of membership increase.

The Strategic Plan A successful tactical response will increase membership for a “one-off ” short term benefit. A strategic plan (another Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 13

At this point, many would argue that a membership engagement activity should first ask what members want.

Experience in other organisations suggests that it may be better to “lead” its members in strategic planning (quoting Henry Ford: “if I asked my customers what they wanted— they’d just say a faster horse”). Rather than unproductive “what do you want” open ended surveys, a “which of these options (with rationale) would attract you to AMOS” type survey may focus members’ opinions. Some consideration to conducting the survey widely is suggested—to organisations where potential members exist—it then has a marketing purpose as well.

Option (4) has some traction. The National Committee for Earth System Science (NCESS) of the Australian Academy of Science (AAS) recommends the creation of an Australian Earth System Science Society (AESSS) in their 2010 report “To Live Within the Earth’s Limits : An Australian Plan to Develop a Science of the Whole Earth

System”. Perhaps AMOS could be part of that conversation as a minimum activity or perhaps AMOS could be the foundation and “seed” of that vision as a leadership activity. A clue to the close synergy between AMOS and an AESSS concept, apart from the obvious general science underpinning, is that seven of the eight members of the NCESS have expertise in climate, ocean and atmospheric sciences. Indeed, perhaps these eminent colleagues might have some thoughts on an appropriate strategic plan for AMOS.

2.

Members embracing the strategic plan and sharing the vision

3.

Key stakeholder agreement to the scope and goal of the plan, early in the process

4.

Resources purposely allocated to achieve reasonable goals (project management)

5.

Extensive communication mechanisms built into the project plan.

If the strategic goal is a greater membership base, then evolutionary growth of AMOS into an AESSS would be difficult to avoid discussing at least. Arguably one organisation might be at the expense of the other in time.

Perhaps only in the USA can an AGU and an AMS co-exist (bolstered with large scale international membership).

Gaining Momentum— a Proposal

There is a danger that discrete professional interests currently covered by AMOS could be diluted in an AESSS. In addition, reasonable concern exists that an AESSS would attract only the academic community. Given the recognition that these conundrums currently exist in AMOS, these issues should be named and proactively addressed at early organisation life cycle stages. The experience of similar international organisations such as the AGU or EGU might assist rumination. Perhaps AESSS chapters for discipline focus would be useful. Conversation with AMOS members suggests, paradoxically, that smaller organisations focussing on one discipline may prove to be of more interest to potential members. This suggests an intentional departmental structure of an AESSS might achieve membership gain—with an efficient central secretariat—and a strong “earth system science” umbrella acting Gaia-like (whatever that looks like).

Enabling Change Change doesn’t just “happen”. Change management experience suggests some key success factors for implementing a strategic plan are: 1.

Leadership committed to an agreed strategy enthusiastically steering change

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 14

Given change takes significant time and money, the key question to answer remains—will a change attract membership? A feasibility study is important. A proposal to be put to members might be further refined by an open discussion. To that end the following is offered to start the conversation: To achieve membership growth to sustain a key professional body, the AMOS council, building on AMOS current vigour and relevance, propose that: 1.

AMOS adds to add the word climate to its name thus becoming ACMOS.

2.

The AMOS council co-opts and resources a working party to research the membership imperatives of AMOS inside and outside the organisation—a feasibility study examining a marketing instrument and/or strategic plan options (including after (3) below).

3.

The AMOS council be empowered to discuss with the AAS NCESS its AESSS vision: t

examining the rationale of AMOS to AESSS evolution

t

fleshing out the issues that need to be addressed in pursuing such a strategic plan

t

gauging the feasibility of this strategic option for input into (2) above.

To add your voice to this important conversation, visit the AMOS Membership forum: www.amos.org.au/forum (you will be required to login with your username and password).

Meet a Member

Gail Box Where does this find you?

I am currently sitting at my desk in the School of Physics at UNSW. There is a rather strong wind blowing outside, rattling the windows.

What do you do?

I am now a Visiting Fellow having retired as an academic in 2008. I no longer have any teaching duties so I am free to concentrate on research. My research interests centre on atmospheric aerosols, in particular their physical, chemical and optical properties. These small particles have an important effect on the Earth’s climate because they can both scatter and absorb solar radiation. They are also important for air quality and health since small particles can easily penetrate the lungs. Our group at UNSW has been looking at the size-resolved chemical composition of different types of aerosols (urban, rural, desert dust) and trying to relate this to their optical properties so that we can better understand their effect on climate.

Why did you get into it?

I have always been interested in science; maybe coming from a family with a lot of engineers was a factor. I did physics for my undergraduate degree because I found it interesting and because it is fundamental to explaining how the world works. I have had a rather varied career, working for BHP in Newcastle in coal research and later in the minerals division at BHP Head Office in Melbourne.

After that I went to the US and first got involved with aerosol research when working at NASA in the late 1970s.

What is the best thing about what you do?

I did enjoy teaching and helping students understand physics although I don’t miss the marking and administrative side of it. Overall, the best thing has been working with enthusiastic graduate students to try and expand our knowledge of atmospheric aerosols which are highly variable in space and time.

The other thing is the annual Australia New Zealand Aerosol Workshop/Seminar. We organised the first one at UNSW in 2005 to bring together the rather diverse community of Australian scientists working on various aspects of aerosol science and impacts. It allows the sharing of information about the range of activities being undertaken and reveals ways we can work together better in the future. It has been hosted by different institutions each year since and has grown to include colleagues from New Zealand as well. The meetings have remained informal and it has been interesting to see the wide variety of aerosol work that is being done and to meet researchers that I might not otherwise have met.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 15

New South Wales member Gail Box. What did you want to be when you were 10?

It is a bit too long ago to really remember for sure. But I do remember being asked by a teacher at school around then and saying I wanted to be a teacher.

How do you relax?

I enjoy reading. I also like getting out in the garden although I am not sure that I really make much of an impact on it.

What is your favourite holiday destination?

I don’t really have a favourite holiday destination. I enjoy seeing new places and now that I am retired there is more time to travel and see more of Australia and the world.

Snapshot

There’s a jetty under there somewhere...

Switzerland, 8 February 2012 Blair Trewin

Accumulated ice on a jetty on Lake Geneva, Switzerland, 8 February 2012. Northeast winds gusting over 80 km/h resulted in large breaking waves on the lake; with temperatures near –10°C the spray froze on contact with any surface. More than 20 moored boats were reported to have sunk under the weight of ice.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 16

If you have an image of the weather near you to share, send it to duncan.ackerley@monash.edu, or post it on the AMOS Facebook page. — Ed.

Significant Mesoscale Oceanography

February 2012 Andy Taylor and Paul Sandery Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Melbourne In the last issue of BAMOS we reported the upgrade of the Bureau of Meteorology ocean forecasting system to Version 2 of the Ocean Model, Analysis and Prediction System (OceanMAPSv2). Aside from the various technical and resolution improvements, the now daily schedule has opened the door to some interesting down-stream perspectives on ocean forecasting.

CLAM: daily coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts The availability of daily forecasts of the global ocean state is a prerequisite for the new routine daily coupled oceanatmosphere forecasts. The BoM coupled limited area model (CLAM) runs a daily 72-hour forecast in research mode in CAWCR using operational ACCESS-R and OceanMAPS. The 0.375° atmospheric model is coupled to a high resolution 0.1° ocean model at relatively high (300s) coupling frequency, which minimises discontinuities resolving air-sea interaction. Routine forecasts are made for the Australian region from 60°E to 180°E and 65°S to 17°N in research mode.

Figure 1 is an example from CLAM on 1 February 2012 where mean sea level pressure (MSLP), sea surface temperature (SST), rain and land surface air temperature are transparently layered together. Ex–Tropical Cyclone (TC) Iggy is in the bottom left corner.

The CLAM system also runs a 24-hour bred vector ensemble initialisation in order to spin-up coupled dynamical modes and sample the fastest growing nonlinear “errors of the forecast”. The coupled dynamical system produces a vast amount of interesting information and samples complex interactions between weather and ocean surface properties at synoptic timescales. Two examples are presented below.

Figure 1. CLAM MSLP, SST, rain and land surface air temperature for 1 February 2012. Image: Paul Sandery.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 17

The first example in Figure 2 shows CLAM 72-hour mean surface net heat flux for 3–5 February 2012. The blue areas correspond to the ocean losing heat to the atmosphere.

The dominant component of the mean net heat flux in this area is from the latent heat flux. This is strongly influenced by the underlying SST of the Leeuwin Current (LC) but is exacerbated in this particular period by strong southeast winds driving cooler lower humidity surface air over the warmer ocean. This renders the net heat flux pattern highly correlated to SST. An interesting observation from the CLAM system for 10 February 2012 is shown in Figure 3 where 24-hour mean total cloud content in CLAM is shown. There is an area where coastal cloud appears to be influenced by upwelled waters, driven by southeasterly winds, that have cooled SSTs along the Bonney Coast (between Mt Gambier and Robe in South Australia). The cool SSTs (not shown) seem to have suppressed local cloud development through stabilising the marine boundary layer. A similar low cloud content is seen off western Tasmania however this is not produced by upwelling but appears to be related to other factors such as topographic steering of the easterly atmospheric flow across Tasmania and a rain shadow effect from the mountains of western Tasmania.

Non-tidal sea level and HAT Over recent months many tide gauges along the southwest of Western Australia recorded coastal sea levels higher than Highest Astronomical Tide (HAT), for instance over the weekend prior to TC Iggy, 21–22 January 2012 (see Figure 4 for Bunbury, Western Australia).

HAT is roughly defined as the highest sea level to be expected under any astronomical situation given otherwise

Figure 2. CLAM 72-hour mean surface net heat flux for 3–5 February 2012.

Image: Paul Sandery

Figure 3. CLAM mean total cloud for 10 February 2012. Image: Paul Sandery. average conditions. The concept of HAT is intimately tied to harmonic tidal methods. Whilst HAT is a convenient and ubiquitous vertical datum, many oceanographic scenarios can lead to observed sea levels exceeding this elevation. The case of anomalous winds over coastal waters is one such scenario that can drive a “storm surge” deviation from the harmonic tide prediction of coastal sea level. But referring to all of the tidal residual as a “storm surge” can be a bit misleading when factors other than a storm are at play.

It is notable that the average annual pattern of sea level attributable to the LC would be represented by the harmonic tide prediction, but any intraseasonal variations or fluctuations occurring at non-astronomical frequencies

are not, and thus also do not play a role in the definition of HAT. Non-tidal mesoscale processes that affect coastal sea level such as the LC are represented by OceanMAPS. And even without the many improvements offered by nesting (such as with CLAM) this representation has immediate value judging by the small number of tide gauges that feed data to the BoM from southern Western Australia. The instance of exceedance of HAT Esperance was predicted several days in advance by a simple linear superposition of the OceanMAPS sea level anomaly forecast with harmonic tide predictions and corrections from NWP forecasts. Daily forecasts of the non-tidal mesoscale ocean complement the standard tide predictions in providing a routine estimate of background sea level.

Figure 4. Sea level at Busselton WA, where HAT is listed as 1.2m, for 19–23 January 2012. Image: Coastal Data Centre, Department of Transport, Western Australian Government.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 18

Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin

3 January 1960 One of Australia’s most significant heatwaves welcomed in the New Year of 1960. The fact that the most extreme heat was in sparsely populated areas, and there were no significant bushfires associated with the event, has led to this heatwave being very little-known. However, this heatwave was responsible for the highest temperature ever recorded under standard conditions in Australia, along with a range of other records across inland Australia.

After a cool December (Oodnadatta only reached normal three times in the first 28 days of the month, which South Australia’s second-coolest December on record), temperatures rose significantly above normal in the outback from 29 December onwards, with a heat low becoming established at the surface. A ridge south of the continent prevented the penetration of any cooler air into an air mass which became extremely hot in situ.

Oodnadatta reached 40°C for the first time during the event on the 29th, and Alice Springs followed on the 30th.

Temperatures reached 47.1°C on the 31st at Oodnadatta, just 1.2°C short of their December record.

The most extreme heat began on New Years Day. Oodnadatta had the highest temperature with 49.2°C. However, the day’s most notable observation was 48.3°C at Finke, located near the NT/SA border, which set a record high temperature for the Northern Territory.

The heatwave reached its peak on the 2nd. Most significantly, temperatures reached 50.7°C at Oodnadatta, an all-time Australian record for a Stevenson screen observation.

Finke equalled the previous day’s NT record, and Whyalla’s 49.4°C was the highest recorded so far south in Australia.

Other records included 49.4°C at Marree, which could

perhaps count itself a little “unlucky” not to reach 50°C, 47.9°C at Leigh Creek and 47.6°C at Woomera.

The greatest southward penetration of extreme heat also occurred on the 2nd, with very high temperatures extending south to the Adelaide region and the far northwest of Victoria, and east into western New South Wales. Whilst no significant records were set in this region, notable highs included 41.8°C at Adelaide, 45.5°C at Mildura and 45.6°C at Broken Hill. Melbourne stayed in easterlies throughout the event and temperatures did not exceed 27°C between 31 December and 5 January.

The heatwave began to break down on the 3rd as southeasterlies developed over parts of the southeast, although it was still very hot over the interior. Alice Springs set an all-time record of 45.2°C and a record minimum of 32.8°C, whilst Oodnadatta fell just short of the previous day’s record, reaching 50.3°C. Some thunderstorm activity also began to develop, mainly over Victoria with 51 mm at Swan Hill. By the 4th southeasterly flow was established across South Australia and temperatures over 40°C retreated to western Queensland and the far north of NSW, effectively bringing the heatwave to an end. Five deaths were attributed to the extreme heat.

In complete contrast, the New Year period was exceptionally wet and cool in the southwest of Western Australia. Two-day (31 December–1 January) rainfall totals around 50 millimetres were common throughout the region. Record low maximum temperatures for Western Australia were set for both months with temperatures reaching just 11.7°C at Katanning on the 31st and several other stations failing to reach 15°C, whilst Mount Barker recorded a maximum of 13.9°C on the 1st.

Synoptic chart for 1800 AEST (0800 UTC), 3 January 1960

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 19

Calendar

2012 March 13 Screening of the Green Screen: Climate Fix Flicks finalists, Sydney. For more details and free tickets visit www.greenscreen.org.au.

April 22–27 International Polar Year 2012: From Knowledge to Action, Montreal, Canada.

22–27 EGU General Assembly 2012, Vienna, Austria.

23–27 10th ISCHMO, Nouméa, New Caledonia.

25–30 AMS 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Florida, USA.

May

July 8–13 20th Symposium on Boundary Layers and Turbulence and 18th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction, Boston, USA. 9–13 12th International Coral Reef Symposium, Cairns.

13–25 XXXII Scientific Commitee on Antarctic Research and Open Science Conference, Portland, USA. 30–3 August 16th International Conference on Cloud and Precipitation, Leipzig, Germany.

30–10 August European Space Agency Earth Observation Summer School on Earth System Monitoring and Modelling, Italy.

August 13–17 AOGS–AGU (WPGM) Joint Assembly, Sentosa Singapore

7–11 4th World Climate Research Programme International Conference on Reanalyses, Maryland, USA.

20–24 15th Conference on Mountain Meteorology, Colorado, USA.

29–1 June AMS 25th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF) and the 21st Conference on Numerical Weather Predition (NWP) jointly with the 46th Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographical Society (CMOS) Congress 2012 Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

October

June

26–30 32nd International Geographical Congress, Cologne, Germany.

22–25 NOAA’s 25th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Colorado, USA.

11–15 AGU Chapman Conference on Volcanism and the Atmosphere, Selfoss, Iceland.

2013

24–27 35th International Association for Energy Economics International Conference, Perth.

February 11–13 19th Annual AMOS Conference, Melbourne.

Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal

Articles — Vol 61 No. 4, December 2011 Speer et al. Meteorological aspects of the 31 March 2009 Coffs Harbour flash flood.

Watterson. Calculation of joint PDFs for climate change with properties matching Australian projections.

Watterson and Whetton. An application of joint PDFs of climate in future decades to wheat crop yield in Australia.

Pepler. Heat, humidity and the El Nino–Southern Oscillation in Sydney, Australia.

Klekociuk et al. The Antarctic ozone hole during 2010.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol.25 page 20

Regular features: Imielska. Seasonal climate summary Hemisphere (Summer 2010–2011).

Southern

Wu. Quarterly numerical weather prediction model performance summary — July to September 2011.

2012 AMOS Council Executive

President Vice-President Secretary Treasurer Past President

Blair Trewin Todd Lane Damien Irving Ian Watterson Neville Nicholls

Ordinary Members John Allen Andrew Klekociuk Robin Roberston Sandra Schuster Richard Wardle Perry Wiles

03-8344 9596 03 6232 3382 02-6268 8289 02-9272 8025 03-9905 4411 03-9669 4664

AMOS Administrative Officer

Jeanette Dargaville GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001 (attn: AMOS admin officer) Phone 0404 471 143 E-mail: admin_officer@amos.org.au

03-9669 4623 03-8344-6516 03-9239 4685 03-9239 4544 03-9902 0111

Sub-Committee Convenors Public Relations Awards 2013 Conference Education Membership

Centre Chairs NSW Hobart Melbourne ACT Perth Darwin Brisbane Adelaide

Vacant Mark Williams Vaughan Barras Phillip Riley Michael Hewson

0419 519 440 03-9669 4660 03-9669 4530 0408 379 373

Steven Phipps Kelvin Michael Damien Irving Clem Davis Merv Lynch Hakeem Shaik Hamish McGowan Andrew MacKinnon

02-9385 8957 03-6226 2977 03-9239 4685 02-6254 2861 08-9266 7540 08-8920 3814 07-3365 6651 08-83133875

Representatives AMOJ Science & Technology Australia

David Karoly

03 8344 4698

Steven Phipps

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2012 Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society ISSN 1035-6576

Editor

Linden Ashcroft School of Earth Sciences The University of Melbourne VIC 3010 Phone: 03-8344 7672 Fax: 03-8344 7761 Email: l.ashcroft@student.unimelb.edu.au

Editor-in-Chief

Stewart Allen Email: Stewart.Allen@bom.gov.au

Assistant Editors Diana Greenslade Blair Trewin

Regional Sub-editors Michael Hewson (Brisbane) Caecilia Ewenz (Adelaide) Damien Irving (Melbourne) Fiona Johnson (NSW) Clem Davis (ACT)

Contributors Blair Trewin Gary Brassington Paul Sandery Andy Taylor

Advertising Manager Please contact the Admin. Officer.

Publisher

AMOS, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia

Contributed articles, news, announcements and correspondence for the Bulletin should be sent to the editor no later than 23 March 2012. They will be reviewed and the galley proofs returned to the author if requested. An ASCII version of the text is required via e-mail or digital media to minimise typographic errors.

The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society is produced and distributed with the assistance of CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and the Bureau of Meteorology.

AMOS Website: www.amos.org.au