Contents AMOS Bulletin Volume 23 Number 4
ISSN 1035-6576
Editorial
61
President’s Column News
62 63
Obituary: Stephen Schneider Conference Report
67 68
News from the Centres News from FASTS
69 71
Conference Announcements
72 74
Meet a Member Articles T.Lane – Is it time for a more proactive approach to scientific ethics and conduct in our discipline? Book Review – The Leeuwin Current 2007 Symposium Significant Mesoscale Oceanography
75 78 80
Snapshot Significant Weather
83 84
Charts from the Past Calendar
87 88
Cover picture: Shadows, Fog and Frost. Taken in the high country, near Dederang, Victoria. When the sun hit the valley below, the fog rose through the trees, combining with the rising sun to produce crepuscular rays and silhouettes across the frosty hillside. This image was taken by AMOS member John Allen. Another photo of John’s can be found on page 83 in Snapshots, a new section dedicated to member photography. (Image and description reproduced with permission from John Allen). Unless specifically stated to the contrary, views expressed in the Bulletin are the personal views of the authors, and do not represent the views of the Society or any other organisation or institution to which the author(s) may be affiliated. Printed on 100% recycled paper
Editorial Thomas Edison famously said that genius is “1% inspiration, 99% perspiration”. A motivating quote to be sure. However, as the winter rolls on, the students among us may find ourselves relating more to the anonymous quote currently circulating that claims, “being a good writer (or scientist!) is 3% talent, 97% not being distracted by the internet.” In the depth of the colder months, it can be hard to find motivation to get out of bed, let alone push the boundaries of science. However, there are inspiring things ahead. The Australian Research Council announced late last month that it will fund a new Centre of Excellence for Climate Change Systems. The Centre is to be made up of 18 local and international universities and research organisations, headed by the University of New South Wales. It will receive $21.4 million over seven years beginning in 2011, to conduct research on reducing uncertainties of regional climate science and contribute to future impact and adaptation planning. This Centre will be a landmark opportunity for collaboration between individuals and organisations and will surely produce many exciting and influential works. At a more local level, National Science Week is currently winding up, with almost 800 science, maths and engineering related events occurring around the country from 14–22 August. These events range from public lectures and excursions in rural areas, to nationwide online surveys and activities, including the release of an easy to read report from the Australian Academy of Science titled “The Science of Climate Change: Questions and Answers”. The slogan of this year’s National Science Week is “Ignite Your Imagination”, and as always most of the events are free and open to the public. National Science Week gives budding scientists, regardless of their age, location or interest, the opportunity to discover more about the field we call home. Find out more at the website below and see how you can ignite your imagination. Failing these prospects for inspiration, allow this issue of BAMOS to try and motivate you. Todd Lane presents a thought provoking case for AMOS to develop a code of conduct in his
article on page 75. If you have any thoughts on the issue, voice them at the forum on the AMOS website – an excellent way to promote discussion on current issues, and a medium that the Society is keen to make more use of. We also see the introduction of a new section in this issue – Snapshots. While many of us are scientists by trade, we do have other interests, and for some, like this month’s contributor John Allen, they include photography. If you have an image of the weather or the ocean that you would like to share with your fellow AMOS members, simply send it to me, with a brief description. Shots will be published in the Bulletin, with the best for each issue used as the cover image. The AMOS Bulletin is only as good as its contributions, and whether you are motivated to submit a photo, an article, a news item, an idea, or even a complaint, be inspired by the knowledge that your efforts will go towards improving the Bulletin. Surely that is more productive than procrastinating on the internet. Finally, we welcome some additions to the editorial team. The previous editor Stewart Allen takes up the mantle of Editor-in-Chief, with Andrew Watkins stepping into a more advisory role. The Regional Subeditors for Melbourne and Brisbane have also changed, with Damien Irving and Michael Hewson to fill the positions. I would like to thank these AMOS members for contributing their time and talent to the Bulletin. I send my thanks out also to Andrew, as well as Ailie Gallant and Elisha Catchpole for their efforts in these roles. The Significant Weather section makes somewhat of a comeback in this issue. If you have information relating to significant weather events across the country, or are interested in contributing to this section of the Bulletin, please get in touch. Linden Ashcroft Further information: www.arc.gov.au/ncgp/ce/ climate_system_science.htm www.scienceweek.gov.au
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President’s Column Climate scientists exonerated again (and again and again and again and again and again) On Wednesday 7 July, the latest in a series of independent reviews examining the science and behaviour of climate scientists at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at University of East Anglia (UEA), the Muir Russell inquiry, published its final report.1 The inquiry concluded, “Climate science is a matter of such global importance, that the highest standards of honesty, rigour and openness are needed in its conduct. On the specific allegations made against the behaviour of CRU scientists, we find that their rigour and honesty as scientists are not in doubt.”
committee finding is that there exists no credible evidence that Dr. Mann had or has ever engaged in, or participated in, directly or indirectly, any actions with an intent to suppress or to falsify data.”4 Nor did he “engage in, or participate in, directly or indirectly, any actions that deviated from accepted practices within the academic community for proposing, conducting, or reporting research or other scholarly activities.” A third inquiry released its report in early July 2010, and again cleared Dr Mann of any wrongdoing.5
This was not a surprise to those of us who know Dr Phil Jones and his colleagues at CRU. I have known Phil for close to 30 years, and know him to be a man and scientist of the utmost integrity. The Muir Russell inquiry was, in fact, the third independent review into the CRU and its scientists – the other two also cleared the CRU scientists of any wrongdoing. One of these was conducted by the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee2; the other by Lord Oxburgh and an international panel established by UEA in consultation with the Royal Society.3 The Oxburgh panel concluded “We saw no evidence of any deliberate scientific malpractice in any of the work of the Climatic Research Unit and had it been there we believe that it is likely that we would have detected it.”
So, six independent inquiries have now exonerated the behaviour and scientific practices of a small group of distinguished climate scientists, who have been the subject of brutal and unjustified attacks (and campaigns of abusive emails). There can be little doubt that the most recent attacks have been motivated by the continuing strong global warming and record 2009/10 temperatures that I have described in previous monthly columns. The attacks have been “successful” in that they have distracted excellent and honest scientists from their research into climate change, and from communicating the results of their research to the public. Instead Jones and Mann and their colleagues have spent a great deal of time trying to deal with a mountain of Freedom of Information demands (often for data available elsewhere on the internet), preparing submissions to the various inquiries, and appearing before these inquiries.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Dr Michael Mann (for many years at the University of Virginia and lately at Pennsylvania State University) has also been subjected to three inquiries in recent years, in response to attacks on his science and character. The first, conducted by the National Research Council in 2006, confirmed the conclusions reached by Dr Mann and his colleagues regarding the relative warmth of the late 20th century in comparison with the temperatures of recent centuries. The second inquiry, conducted early this year, concluded “After careful consideration of all the evidence and relevant materials, the inquiry
1
One might think that the unanimity of the six inquiries in exonerating the scientists and confirming their science might be the end of the matter, and that our valued colleagues might be left to resume their excellent scientific careers. However, while global warming continues, I am sure there will continue to be well-organised attempts to distract the scientists, the media, the pubic, and politicians, from the reality of this warming (and from the human role in causing it).
www.cce-review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT.pdf.
2
climateprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/ HC387-IUEAFinalEmbargoedv21.pdf.
4
3 www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/ CRUstatements/SAP.
5
www.research.psu.edu/orp/ Findings_Mann_Inquiry.pdf. live.psu.edu/fullimg/userpics/10026/ Final_Investigation_Report.pdf.
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 23 page 62
Certainly some powerful people have no intention of letting Mike Mann focus on his research. The Attorney General of Virginia has insisted that the University of Virginia provide him all of Mann’s correspondence “created, presented or made in connection with” five research projects (worth about $500,000 in total). And the Attorney General really does mean “all”! He demands “the original and any copies of any written, printed, typed, electronic or graphic matter of any kind or nature, however produced or reproduced, and book, pamphlet, brochure, periodical, newsletter, letter, correspondence, memoranda, notice, facsimile, e-mail, manual, press release, telegram, report, study, handwritten note, working paper, chart, paper, graph, index, tape, data sheet, data processing card, or any other written, recorded, transcribed, punched, taped, filmed or graphic matter”. The Attorney General also demands “all” documents “that constitute or that are in any way related to correspondence, messages or e-mails” between Mann and 39 specified scientists (or that “reference” any of the 39). All correspondence between Mann and any research assistants, secretaries or administrative staff with whom Mann worked, or that “reference” these staff, are also demanded. These demands are clearly a desperate search for anything that might
conceivably be used to discredit Mann and his work. This tactic has been used in the past. From the mid-1990s Dr Ben Santer, at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, was harassed in the same way, with demands for all his correspondence and papers relating to his scientific work on climate change detection. This was simply because Santer, amongst others, had demonstrated that anthropogenic factors were contributing to the warming of our planet. Over more than 15 years I have watched the good grace and resolve with which Santer, Mann and Jones have responded to these baseless and brutal (and ultimately futile) attempts to intimidate them and to try to find something, anything, which might conceivably be used to discredit them or their work. Their refusal to be intimidated, and their ability to continue their excellent research in the face of this intimidation is testament to their strength of character. They truly are heroes of our times, and provide an inspiration for young scientists in all fields. I am sure future generations will see them as such. This is an edited version of the President’s Column available at www.amos.org.au - Ed.
News AMOS Art Competition 2010 – First announcement Entries are now open for the AMOS Art Competition. This annual event encourages school students to create a piece of art inspired by or related to the themes of atmosphere and ocean. The art may fall into one of the following categories: • • • •
Short story/Poem Painting/Drawing Song Textile
This competition is open to all school students in Australia. There are two entry categories: • •
Primary school (Years 1 to 6) Secondary school (Years 7 to 10)
Entries must be received by Friday, 5 November 2010. Prizes include:
• • •
A cash prize of $50 each Publication of the winning pieces in the AMOS Bulletin An exhibition of the pieces at the 2011 AMOS Annual Conference
Each winning artist’s school will also receive: • •
A book on atmosphere and oceans for their library One year free membership to AMOS.
For details on how to enter, visit the AMOS education website or contact Rob Willis via the email address below. Further Information: www.amos.org.au/education joannrob@bigpond.net.au
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Turbulence breakthrough may lead to better forecasts New research conducted in Australia and America has made the most advanced model yet of atmospheric turbulence, with great potential to improve the efficiency of planes and the accuracy of weather predictions. The model, developed by researchers at Princeton University and the University of Melbourne, uses a simple measurement to try and understand turbulence, which is considered to be the most complex of fluid movement. Despite fluid dynamics being a very old field of physics, turbulent flow near a boundary remains somewhat of a mystery. As co-author Ivan Marusic from the University of Melbourne admits, “We don’t really have a handle on the physics”. As a fluid flows past an object, it twists and bounces off the edges of that object, creating very chaotic patterns that interfere with the incoming flow. Airplanes use almost half of their fuel to overcome the effects of turbulence near the aircraft, and the turbulence within the boundary layer (the bottom 100 or so metres of the atmosphere) has a real impact on local weather. The new study, published in the July 9 Science, examined forces within a giant wind tunnel. Instead of only looking at the wind patterns near the wall of the tunnel, Marusic
and co-authors measured the flows both close to and far from the boundary. They found a close link between the small-scale patterns near the wall, and the smoother, larger patterns of flow further away. The way in which the air moved far from the wall had a considerable and predictable impact on how the air behaved near the wall. This relationship was so predictable, in fact, that Marusic and his colleagues derived a mathematical equation relating the two. If correct in real world situations, it will have big implications for the aviation and forecasting industries. It may also lead to a better method of dispersing pollution. “The fact is that we were sort of amazed because it’s such a simple formulation,” says Marusic. “Now with this model, all we need to do is measure the outer flow and we can predict what’s happening near the wall.” The next step in the research is to see how the smoother, more predictable outer flow patterns, also known as superstructures, can be changed to reduce the boundary layer turbulence. Further information: www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/07/ taming_turbulence/
First female elected as President of the Academy of Science Press release by Mona Akbari, Communications Officer, Australian Academy of Science Distinguished cancer researcher, Professor Suzanne Cory, has been elected by her peers as President of the Australian Academy of Science – an institution that has been dominated by male scientists since its formation in 1954. As the first elected female President she takes over the role from outgoing President, Professor Kurt Lambeck. Professor Cory said of the appointment “I feel very honoured to have been elected as President. At the same time, I am very conscious that it is a great responsibility.” The only other female to serve in this position was Professor Dorothy Hill, who stepped into the role when the President, Dr David Martyn, died in 1970. Professor Cory brings a wealth of experience. She was Director of the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute and Professor of Medical Biology at the University of Melbourne from 1996 until
2009. She was appointed to the CSIRO Board in 2002, becoming its Deputy Chairman in 2007. Speaking of her role as the new President she said, “We live in an increasingly challenging global environment and I believe that Australia’s future will in large measure be determined by its capability in the sciences and engineering. The Academy must therefore play a major leadership role.” “We must ensure that Australian science grows even stronger and is well-linked internationally. We must stand ready to provide our policy-makers with sound independent scientific advice.” “And we must nurture the next generation of scientific leaders, by fostering high quality science education in our schools and universities and by inspiring our communities
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with the heady excitement of scientific discovery.” Professor Cory’s scientific achievements have attracted numerous honours and awards, including the Australia Prize, the Charles S. Mott Prize of the General Motors Cancer Research Foundation, the Royal Medal of The Royal Society and a L'Oréal-UNESCO Women in Science Award. She was elected to the Australian Academy of Science in 1986 and the Royal Society in 1992. She is also an elected member of the US National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the French Academy of Sciences and the Pontifical Academy of Sciences. In
1999 she was appointed Companion in the General Division of the Order of Australia and in 2009 she was awarded the French decoration of Chevalier de l’Ordre de la Légion d’Honneur. The presidency alternates between the physical and biological sciences and the term lasts for 4 years. Further information: www.theage.com.au/national/womanof-science-20100806-11oml.html www.science.org.au/
More than reefs are at risk: new ocean research A report from some of the world’s leading marine scientists has revealed that the oceans are changing faster than they have for millions of years, threatening ocean ecosystems and the production of oxygen.
components of the planet’s oceans, in ways “unprecedented in nearly a million years. This is causing fundamental and comprehensive changes to the way marine ecosystems function,” he said.
The study, led by Professor Ove HoeghGuldberg from the University of Queensland and Dr John Bruno from the University of North Carolina was published in the June 18 edition of Science. It is the first comprehensive synthesis to examine the potential impact of climate change on the different marine ecosystems within the world’s oceans, not just the reefs. This topic is often overlooked due to the complex and logistically difficult nature of studying many marine ecosystems.
These changes are a result of rapid warming, increasing acidification and changes in water circulation, the study found. As well as damaging coral reefs, these alterations are affecting important fish nurseries like mangroves and sea grasses, leading to fewer small fish, which in turn leads to a breakdown in the marine food chain, a redistribution of marine populations and in increase in diseases among marine life.
The findings suggest that if the ocean keeps absorbing carbon dioxide at its current rate, there could be a catastrophic failure of the oxygen cycle. Currently, the world’s oceans produce 50% of the oxygen that humans breathe, and absorb almost a third of the carbon dioxide we produce. Professor Hoegh-Guldberg describes this role as being similar to Earth’s heart and lungs. “Quite plainly, the Earth cannot do without its ocean,” he said. The new report however suggests that the Earth is not in top shape. “It's as if the Earth has been smoking two packs of cigarettes a day!”
“We are entering a period in which the very ocean services upon which humanity depends are undergoing massive change and in some cases beginning to fail,” said Professor HoeghGuldberg. “Further degradation will continue to create enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide.” “These challenges underscore the urgency with which world leaders must act to limit further growth of greenhouse gases and thereby reduce the risk of these events occurring,” the authors said. “Ignoring the science is not an option.” Further information: www.uq.edu.au/news/index.html? article=21355
Dr Bruno said that this unhealthy habit is modifying many chemical and physical
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Buoys deployed in Western Pacific to aid typhoon research State-of-the-art buoys measuring details of the ocean and atmosphere are being deployed for the first time in the Western Pacific, to improve understanding of air-sea interactions associated with typhoon development and behaviour. A research vessel recently left from Taiwan, carrying two tandem buoys sets that will be deployed. One buoy is a boat-shaped instrument called the EASI (Extreme Air-Sea Interaction) buoy, while the other is an ASIS (Air-Sea Interaction Spar) buoy. The sets will initially be dispatched about 720 km southeast of Taiwan for three months, to test their resilience against typhoon strength conditions. While these buoys have previously been used for research into hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, and in separate studies of the Southern Ocean and Labrador Sea, this is the first time they have been deployed in the typhoon-prone Western Pacific. It is hoped that during the three months, the buoys will collect valuable data on the energy fluxes and exchanges that occur between the atmosphere and the ocean during typhoon conditions. Dr. Hans Gruber of the University of Miami’s Center for the Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing is leading the international team of technicians, atmospheric researchers and marine scientists involved in the groundbreaking project. He hopes that the buoys will help improve our understanding of super typhoons.
“We have successfully used these buoys to measure air-sea interactions and wave dynamics in the Atlantic in a variety of storm conditions and are now looking forward to applying this technology to the western Pacific where super typhoons develop quite frequently,” he said. “In the last several years we have added new technologies and improved the data collection capabilities of these buoys as well as made the buoys more robust to withstand extreme weather conditions. In addition we will also be using satellite telecommunications to query the buoys routinely from Miami and retrieve data.” The buoys have a vast array of recording devices onboard that will measure the heat, momentum and moisture exchange between the ocean and atmosphere during a typhoon. There are also sensors measuring air and upper ocean temperature, currents, turbulence and humidity, as well as sonic anemometers to take high-resolution measurements of wind speed and stress. Other devices include a small set of wires, similar to piano wires, arranged in a pentagon to measure details of ocean roughness as well as wave direction, and a Compact Lightweight Aerosol Spectrometer (CLASP) to record sea spray from breaking waves. This is particularly important as the spray layer greatly impacts the oceanic drag coefficient, a crucial component in typhoon forecast models. Further information: www.rsmas.miami.edu/pressreleases/2 0100810-typhoon.html
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Obituary Stephen Schneider Stephen H. Schneider, a leading climate change researcher and founder of the journal Climatic Change passed away on July 19 from a suspected heart attack. He was 65 years old.
where it could be expected to see the first clear evidence of human induced climate change, otherwise known as the “signal detection problem”.
Schneider was a passionate scientist and communicator, who was hailed by the New York Times as a “climate warrior” for his tireless campaigning for action on climate change. He was in Australia recently, to attend the Climate Adaptation Futures Conference on the Gold Coast. In a eulogy to Schneider, friend and colleague Ben Santer from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory wrote:
In 1975 he founded the international journal Climatic Change, and in 1992 was awarded a MacArthur Fellowship for his significant contribution to the field of science and science communication. In 1996 Schneider moved to Stanford, where he and his wife Terry Root conducted leading research on the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the population and distribution of various plant and animal species.
“Some climate scientists have exceptional talents in pure research. They love to figure out the inner workings of the climate system. Others have strengths in communicating complex scientific issues to non-specialists. It is rare to find scientists who combine these talents. Steve Schneider was just such a man.”
Despite struggling with a rare form of cancer for several years, Schneider continued to work on many areas of climate change research, including policy options for mitigation, and was a strong voice in the scientific and public community on the importance of climate change action.
Schneider achieved many things before his untimely death on a flight to London from a conference in Sweden. He wrote several books, including one about his battle with cancer in 2006, and his most recent work Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate about the public debate on climate change.
Stephen Schneider was an inspiration to many climate scientists and science communicators alike, as the number of online eulogies will attest. During his long career, Schneider became known to the climate community worldwide, including many Australian scientists. AMOS President Neville Nicholls wrote this on news of his death:
He was an advisor for eight presidential administrations, from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama. Schneider was also a leading member of the IPCC, which shared a Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007.
“I have known Steve Schneider for over thirty years. His tragically early death is a blow to his colleagues, friends, family, and to the world. He was a brilliant scientist and a great communicator who went the extra mile to communicate difficult concepts and science to a broad audience. Steve always stayed calm and rational, despite decades of personal abuse from vested interests. His words were often deliberately twisted and misquoted by those intent on misrepresentation, but Steve long ago decided to ignore such base attempts at distraction, and remained focussed on the science and its implications. We are all poorer for his passing, but richer because of his enormous efforts to educate us all on topics of great importance.”
Schneider completed his doctorate in plasma physics and mechanical engineering at Columbia University in 1971. As a postdoctoral fellow at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, he studied greenhouse gases, before gaining a postdoctoral fellowship at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in 1972. While at NCAR, Schneider conducted groundbreaking research on atmospheric aerosols and their influence on climate. Using simple and complex models, he and his colleagues led the way in the exploration of the impact of particles from large-scale fires (such as those from nuclear war) and volcanic eruptions on climate. He was also one of the first climate scientists to look at the issue of identifying exactly
Further information: www.realclimate.org/index.php/ archives/2010/07/a-eulogy-to-stephenschneider/ news.stanford.edu/news/2010/ july/schneider-071910.html
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Conference Report Towards improving statistical practices in climate science: conference report on the 11th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology 12 – 16 July 2010, Edinburgh, Scotland Ailie Gallant1 and Ian Macadam2 1 2
School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne
Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales
Improving methodologies and statistical practices is a cornerstone of ensuring that science is robust and aids in understanding of complex problems. Conversely, the incorrect application and interpretation of statistics in science has probably contributed to the expression “There are lies, damn lies and statistics.” In this vein, the 11th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology brought together climatologists and statisticians to showcase the “world’s best practice” in the use of statistics in climate research. The conference was held over the week of 12–16 July, 2010 at the University of Edinburgh, Scotland. Australian climate science was well represented, with eleven participants from CSIRO, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the University of Melbourne, the University of New South Wales and the Western Australian Department of Agriculture and Food. Participants presented on a range of topics including: palaeoclimate reconstructions; extreme events and event attribution; climate data homogenization; Bayesian statistics for climate research; forecast verification techniques; the use of observations to constrain and verify climate predictions; and improving model uncertainty estimates. Presenters included several statisticians with backgrounds in interdisciplinary statisticsbased research, including Dr. Armin Haas from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Dr. Jonty Rougier from the University of Bristol. Their talks highlighted
the use of Bayesian statistics, a topic covered by presentations from several participants, all of which served to highlight a technique being newly applied to a climate context. The latest in climate research was also presented. Discussions ranged from techniques employed to create commonly-used data sets such as the Hadley Centre SST fields (HadISST) by Dr. Nick Rayner from the UK Met Office; while Prof. Michael Mann from Pennsylvania State presented global spatial signatures of “The Little Ice Age” and the “Medieval Warm Period” and their potential dynamical origins. With attendance exceeding expectations, the willingness of climate scientists to learn more about statistical practices was evident. The interdisciplinary nature of the conference allowed two-way communication and led to many fruitful discussions on determining best statistical and climatological practices with the aim of improving climate science as a whole. From the perspective of two early-career climatologists with only limited exposure to statistics, the meeting provided a useful introduction to several new concepts that could be readily applied to our research. Several interesting, but somewhat foreign, methods were revealed that the climate community is only just beginning to embrace, such as Bayesian techniques. As such, it was evident that conversations between climate scientists and statisticians should continue into the future. It will only aid in improving our science.
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News from the Centres Brisbane Regional Centre Update Michael Hewson Vice chair, Brisbane Regional Centre In March 2010 the Brisbane Regional Centre of AMOS elected a new committee with names and contact details listed below. That meeting, held in the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) offices in Brisbane, heard a thought provoking talk from Joshua Soderholm, an Honours student at the University of Queensland (UQ), on “The pre-storm environments of SEQ, seabreeze fronts and boundary layer development”. Joshua’s work helps researchers in this storm-prone area to understand the behaviour of extreme weather a little more (Figure 1). In May, the centre met again at UQ and heard from Associate Professor Ron Johnston on the topic of “Marine Sensor Networks” particularly SEMAT or “Smart Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Technologies”. One aim of the centre is to “beef up” (an appropriate Queensland metaphor) the oceanographic input into AMOS Q (Figure 2). The program will continue into 2010 with the next meeting to be held in the BoM Brisbane office – more details to come. The idea is to continue to build interest and involvement in AMOS in Brisbane, and the committee is keen to plan a one-day event scheduled for March 2011. While ideas are still being formed by the centre committee, the workshop might engage Queensland organisations with the practicalities of dealing with what we know about evolving climate teleconnections and the downstream effects on weather events in Queensland.
Figure 1: A slide from Joshua Soderholm’s presentation.
Figure 2: A slide from Ron Johnston’s presentation.
Chairperson
A/Prof. Hamish McGowan
h.mcgowan@uq.edu.au
Vice chairperson
Mr. Michael Hewson
m.hewson@uq.edu.au
Secretary
Dr. Peter D’Abreton
peter.dabreton@paeholmes.com
Treasurer
Mr. Robin Ormerod
robin.ormerod@paeholmes.com
Committee
Dr. Ann Farrell
a.farrell@bom.gov.au
Committee
Ms. Johanna Speirs
j.speirs@uq.edu.au
The 2010 Brisbane Centre council
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 23 page 69
Climate Science Communication Workshop at the Melbourne Regional Centre The science of global warming due to increased levels of greenhouse gases is well established. Through the numerous reports from the IPCC it has been shown that observations over the last few decades are consistent with predicted trends. However, the acceptance of the science by policy makers and the wider community varies substantially indicating that there is a breakdown in the way that the science is being communicated.
Dr Tahl Kestin (Monash Sustainability Institute): Climate scientist advisories to decision-makers
The aim of the workshop is to bring together those involved professionally in both the science and communications fields to identify the key challenges that must be overcome to enable more effective engagement with various audiences.
Mr Adam Morton (The Age): Climate science in the media
Prof John Thwaites (Climateworks Aust., fmr State Minister for Climate Change): Climate science engagment with politics Mr Chris Sounness (Dept. Prim. Ind.): Communicating climate science to rural communities
Prof Stephan Lewandowsky (University of Western Australia): The psychology of climate change
Date
All welcome. Morning tea refreshments will be provided.
9:00am – 12:30pm, Friday 24th September, 2010
For more information:
Location Elisabeth Murdoch Theatre, University of Melbourne
and
light
Bureau of Meteorology: Vaughan Barras 9669 4045 Blair Trewin 9669 4623
Keynote Speakers
University of Melbourne: Luke Garde 8344 9708
Prof Neville Nicholls (Lead author; IPCC AR4): The science of global warming
Monash University: Tess Parker
9905 4479
CSIRO: Damien Irving
9239 4685
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News from FASTS
Vote 1 for Science this election Australia’s major political parties have been called upon to declare their commitment to science and innovation as core drivers of the national economy by 60,000 scientists across the nation via the FASTS Science and Innovation Federal Election Questionnaire. Eighty per cent of Australians believe science education is absolutely essential or very important to the national economy. The question is, do our political leaders agree and what will they do about it? Questionnaire responses are expected from the parties soon, when scientists Australia-wide, together with mum and dads who know how important maths and science are to their children’s education, will have a chance to compare policies and cast their votes. Responses from the major and minor parties will be posted on the FASTS website. Dates for your diaries 25th anniversary celebration This year FASTS turns 25 and we will be celebrating 25 years of science advocacy in Australia. Celebrations will take place on the evening of Thursday 25 November in Canberra. Please mark the date in your diaries, as this will be an event you won’t want to miss. Stay tuned for details. Annual General Meeting The AGM will be held in Canberra on Friday 26 November, following the 25th anniversary celebrations. House of Representatives Inquiry into Australia's International Research Engagement The House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation inquired into and reported on Australia's international research engagement. In particular, the inquiry examined the impediments to collaborating internationally and ways to address those impediments. The Report makes 18 recommendations and can be read online1: Indexation arrangements for higher education Legislation to provide for new indexation arrangements for higher education has been introduced in the Australian parliament. It will deliver an additional $2.6 billion to universities over five years. This, together with the increased funding for the indirect costs of research, spells a significant recurrent funding improvement. The new formula for higher education funding indexation will be made up as follows: •
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services labour price index (75%)
•
Consumer Price Index (25%)
This measure sees the implementation of an important recommendation in the Bradley Review. For a critique of the legislation, please see the Parliamentary Library Bill Digest for this Bill:2 For more information, visit the FASTS website: www.fasts.org Dr Catherine Foley, President
Anna-Maria Arabia, Executive Director
This is an edited version of the FASTS update available on the AMOS website (www.amos.org.au)-ed
1
www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/isi/intresearch/report/fullreport.pdf.
2
www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/bd/2009-10/10bd162.pdf.
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Conference Announcements AMOS and MetSoc NZ - Joint Conference: Extreme Weather 2011 Te Papa, Wellington, New Zealand 9-11th February 2011
In February 2011, the Meteorological Society of New Zealand and the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society will be holding a joint conference in Wellington covering many aspects of meteorological and oceanographic research in the Australasian region. This will be the AMOS Annual Conference for 2011, following on from the very successful 2010 annual conference held in Canberra earlier this year. The meeting will include six special sessions each with a keynote address: (1) Extreme weather in the Australasian region – from floods to droughts (2) Impact and meteorology of the main climate drivers (ENSO, SAM, Monsoon) (3) Using high-resolution models to understand local meteorology (4) Oceanography of the Australasian region (5) Climate change in the Australasian region (6) Riskscape - Impact of weather on disaster planning in the Australasian region However papers on any topic related to the Meteorology and Oceanography of the Australasian region will be considered. Important Dates: Abstract Deadline: October 1, 2010 Paper acceptance notification: November 1, 2010 Early Bird Registration Deadline: November 15, 2010 Extreme Weather 2011 Conference: February 9 - 11, 2011 Further information, abstract and registration details will be forwarded to all AMOS members in the coming weeks. In the meantime, should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact Jeanette Dargaville at admin_officer@amos.org.au.
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GREENHOUSE 2011: The science of climate change Cairns Convention Centre Queensland, Australia 4-8 April 2011 The latest in the influential GREENHOUSE conference series, GREENHOUSE 2011 will focus on the science of climate change. Scientists and representatives from industry and all levels of government will have the opportunity to share information and hear about the latest in climate change science from leading researchers from Australia and around the world. The GREENHOUSE 2011 program will cover a range of topics, including: • • • • • •
oceans atmosphere biosphere climate modelling climate change projections climate variability
• • • • • •
extreme events and community resilience Pacific nations and climate change impacts and adaptation biodiversity policy and economics communicating climate change
The program committee is now calling for abstracts in line with the conference theme. Abstract submissions must be made at www.greenhouse2011.com/submissions before 19 November 2010. Registration for the conference is now open. To secure your place at GREENHOUSE 2011 register online at www.greenhouse2011.com/registration. For more information about GREENHOUSE 2011 visit www.greenhouse2011.com. You can also follow us on Twitter (@greenhouse2011) for conference announcements and program updates.
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Meet a Member Every issue, an AMOS member is selected at random and emailed some questions about who they are and what they do. This issue we meet AMOS Fellow Steve Pendlebury. Where does this email find you? At my desk in Hobart. It is a typically balmy (some might say crisp) blue-sky winter morning and I’m resisting the urge to look out over the sparkling Derwent Estuary as I start another day in the southern paradise. What do you do? I am the Regional Director for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s Tasmania and Antarctica Region. A formal summary of what I do could be “works with National Program Managers in the planning, direction and control of the scientific, service and administrative functions within the Region.” A real-world view might say that I work with a terrific bunch of people in keeping Weather, Climate, and Water services and products ticking over for the citizens of Tasmania and for those who work in, or rely on data from, Antarctica. Why did you get into it? As I enter my seventh decade, decisions made all those years ago are less clear. However, I recall a high school encounter with a Careers Advisor who counselled that law was too stuffy; astronomy too airy fairy; and saving the world too difficult — and so that just left something interesting, practical and easy such as meteorology. I guess the last almost 60 years have taught me to take some responsibility for my actions and so I’d have to confess an early interest in the environment led me to choose a career in the “weather game” independent of the aforementioned “Dodgy Brothers” careers advice. What is the best thing about what you do? As a weather forecaster for much of my working life I was privileged to be able to enjoy, day after day, coming to work to be greeted by challenges different from the day before. Generally day-to-day weather situations are at least subtly different from those that have gone before, and so playing the “weather game” (and winning more than you lose) requires a blend of science and the nous, on how to apply that science i.e. literally “knowing when to hold them and when to fold
Steve Pendlebury in his role as the Regional Directory for the Bureau of Meteorology’s Tasmanian and Antarctic Region. them1”. Well that was then: nowadays the best thing that I do is that I realise that I work, in a manager role, with a bunch of bright young things who are taking the art and science of weather forecasting to a new level of accuracy and reputation applying output from, inter alia2, sophisticated numerical weather predictions systems, and who are adapting to tools such as the Next Generation Forecast and Warning System3. My role also allows me to appreciate the input from the non-forecasting side of the Bureau – terrific work is done, for example, by administrative; engineering; IT; and legal people in keeping the show on the road, not only for forecasting, but for the other key areas of Bureau endeavour: Observations; Climate; and the provision of Water Information Services.
1
To quote from Kenny Rogers, that well-known gambling minstrel. 2
A favourite bit of managerial Bureau-speak from yester-year 3
See, for example: www.environment.gov.au/minister/ garrett/2009/budmr20090512f.html. and www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/about/forecasts/aboutgraphical-forecasts.shtml.
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What did you want to be when you were 10? Ah to be ten again and dream! Way back then I don’t think I wanted to be much – just hankered to be out in the bushland, near my outer-Bendigo home, catching yabbies in one of the water races or riding my bike around the many bush tracks; or going swimming on a 40something degree day; or playing cricket in the back yard; or, late at night, listening under the blankets, on my crystal set, to the ABC’s Alan McGilvray’s broadcast of Australia beating England in(to) the Ashes. But then, come to think of it, Rod Laver was on top then in tennis, and so I’m guessing that is who I really wanted to emulate – by the way, that did not happen. How do you relax? Listening to music, music, music, (my latest favourite is “Interpretations: the British Rock
Songbook” by Bettye LaVette, although I bought an ABC Easy Listening Classics CD recently too) — followed by tennis; swimming (hmmm, maybe swimming then tennis); walking; and the odd spot of bicycling; and a little yoga where the old muscles and creaking tendons get a chance to stretch and loosen a bit. What is your favourite holiday destination? Holiday destinations are a retirement KPI and so it is a bit early to talk of favourites. I’ve just had a couple of weeks in New Zealand which I thought was great – fantastic scenery and New Zealand “does” tourism well. However, game parks in Africa; the Rockies in Canada; the canals of Europe; and the wildlife of South Georgia and of the Galapagos are all in my top ten.
Articles Is it time for a more proactive approach to scientific ethics and conduct in our discipline? Todd Lane School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne Address for correspondence: tplane@unimelb.edu.au The July 2010 AMOS President’s column (Nicholls 2010) discusses the outcomes of recent investigations into the individuals involved in the so-called Climategate affair. This enhanced public scrutiny into both research and researchers in the climate sciences has brought issues regarding scientific conduct and integrity to the forefront of our attention. In my opinion, these and other recent events require us to evaluate our approaches to ethical behaviour and scientific conduct within the Society, training at universities, and the field in general. Ethics and integrity are engrained in the scientific process, encompassing issues like plagiarism, the exclusion and selection of data, conflict of interest, due acknowledgment, data sharing, and objectivity. While the concept of appropriate scientific conduct does not have a unique definition, most scientists would probably agree on its conceptual intent and strive to behave ethically and appropriately as they engage in the scientific endeavor. In addition, there are many discipline-specific ethical challenges, e.g., bioethics for the
medical and biological fields. The rapid growth of external interest into climate change and the significant impact of climate change research have led to the emergence of a number of new ethical challenges that are unique to our field. Researchers in the climate sciences have also been the target of much scrutiny and criticism surrounding the application of the scientific process. While the vast majority of these criticisms have been shown to lack foundation, these events make it prudent for our field to be more proactive surrounding scientific ethics, including those challenges unique to our discipline. An ever-increasing number of policy decisions are being guided by climate change projections. The consequences of these have potentially enormous economic and societal ramifications. Prices on carbon and global emission reduction agreements are part of the global political agenda, in part motivated by conclusions made by the IPCC and others. Even local planning decisions have been guided by research into sea level rise (Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal
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2008; The State of Victoria 2008). The stakes have been raised, placing significant value on research outcomes, which arguably increases the ethical responsibilities of those scientists conducting that research. It could be said that our discipline’s ethical responsibilities have approached those of fields like medicine and law, which both employ strict regulation surrounding ethical issues because of the potential personal and economic consequences of practitioners’ actions. Of course, research and operations in atmospheric science and oceanography have always had substantial economic and societal value. Examples include severe weather forecasts, marine forecasts, and seasonal predictions. However, one difference between these three examples and climate change projections is accountability. Assessment of forecast performance can be achieved a (relatively) short time after these forecasts are produced and individuals or individual organisations can be held accountable for major failures. Climate change projections on the other hand, more often than not, extend well beyond the careers of those scientists contributing to the research and perhaps even beyond the life expectancy of some research organisations. Ultimately, politicians and the public must place their trust in climate scientists and the research they produce. In many ways our field has already proven itself worthy of that trust; research into ozone depletion that led to the Montreal protocol and subsequent stratospheric ozone recovery is a perfect example. Yet, acceptance of public trust comes with a responsibility to behave with honesty and integrity. Part of the role of educators, professional societies, and our broader scientific community is to ensure that our field meets that responsibility. Issues regarding scientific ethics are not confined to the lab, workspace, research publications, and the activities surrounding them. Public communication about science is also intertwined with ethics. The explosion of awareness and public debate concerning climate change has also led to the rapid growth of a myriad of climate advocacy roles. Many of these advocates are not climate scientists, and because of this can often be excused for minor errors or embellishments. On the other hand, the onus on expert scientists is greater than it is for non-experts and these scientists should not deviate from the facts. Exaggeration by scientists on either side of the climate debate should be deemed unacceptable. Thus, public communication of scientific findings takes on its own ethical responsibilities,
including ensuring accurate reporting, clear delineation between certainties and hypotheses, and even the decision to accept or decline requests to comment. All of these issues form a potential minefield for young scientists in our field. It is also possible that prolonged advocacy in the field may lead to advocates developing a vested interest in the scientific outcome, leading to a loss of objectivity in concurrent research activities. Following strict rules regarding conflict of interest, on one view it could be argued that scientists who enter the realm of climate advocacy should excuse themselves from scientific endeavor in the climate sciences. This extreme position is certainly not necessary, but the other extreme of ignoring the issue altogether is not desirable either. The middle ground is achievable, as demonstrated by many senior members of our field who have taken the appropriate level of care to minimise potential or perceived conflicts. Yet, given the increased expectation for researchers to participate in outreach and communication activities, this issue is not isolated to senior scientists who are likely experienced at mitigating conflicts. A variety of advocacy roles are likely to emerge at all levels of seniority, underlining the need for enhanced awareness of ethical issues starting as early as the postgraduate level. Universities are the obvious first port of call for training in scientific ethics. It is through postgraduate training (and to a lesser extent undergraduate training) that students receive their first real exposure to the scientific process alongside their technical and theoretical training. However, for many young scientists the concept of appropriate scientific conduct is learned implicitly by example from mentors and colleagues. Few are explicitly taught through formal courses and some may even miss out on any discourse with supervisors. In my opinion, some form of formal dialogue concerning scientific ethics and conduct should be a mandatory component of all postgraduate training in every discipline of science. Yet the Australian PhD system, with its minimalist approach to coursework, makes this difficult to achieve. While university ethics courses often exist under the umbrella of postgraduate coursework programs, these are usually biased towards bioethics and probably not entirely suited to our field. Perhaps there is a need for a more focused discipline-based approach, especially because many issues surrounding ethics are not simply black or white and the grey areas are most effectively explored through example case studies and discussion
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(Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy 2009). Developing case studies tailored to our discipline could be a useful learning tool. Most universities, research organisations, and funding agencies already have procedures in place to assess and regulate the behavior of established researchers. Professional societies offer valuable discipline-specific guidance as well. In some disciplines (e.g., law) professional societies administer continuing education in ethics, with participation required for members’ accreditation. It is also common for professional societies to have a code of conduct for their members. In fact, many societies in our field have codes of conduct as part of their rules and regulations. The American Geophysical Union (AGU) has a “Policy on Misconduct in Science” (American Geophysical Union 1992), and the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has “Guidelines for Professional Conduct” (American Meteorological Society 2008). Such codes are not just a response to the litigious American culture; many Australian societies have codes as well, e.g., Engineers Australia (Engineer’s Australia 2010) and the Geological Society of Australia (GSA)(Geological Society of Australia 2010). AMOS does not have a code of conduct for its members (although the concept of ‘conduct unbecoming a member’ does exist in the AMOS rules – clause 7.1.(ii)(AMOS 2009)). In my opinion, AMOS should enact a code. A draft code of conduct could be based on those from comparable societies (e.g., AMS or AGU). It could even incorporate features from other societies with a more commercial base (e.g., GSA) because of the rapid expansion of consulting activities in our field. Once approved by Council and AMOS members, adherence to the code should be a condition of membership, which would be in line with many similar professional societies. The code need not be prohibitive or repressive, but could embrace the scientific ideal and the value of our research to society. If written in a sufficiently positive tone, a code of conduct might even inspire the occasional potential member to join. The recent reaction by some politicians and universities to the Climategate affair provides some justification for enacting a code. In the event that an overzealous politician, administrator, or even influential member of the public seeks to have one of our AMOS members unfairly scrutinised or challenged, it would be heartening for that member to have the support of the Society. Such support would
have far more credence if an established code of conduct was in place and the Society’s support was based on the member’s adherence to that code. Without a code, AMOS might appear lax regarding issues of scientific conduct and may also be tarnished in the process. Or alternatively, for example, it is possible that a member of AMOS may cause others in the Society considerable concern due to serious breaches of the scientific process. If these actions were proven to be severe enough, sanctions might be appropriate. Yet, without a code of conduct and a clear definition of ‘conduct unbecoming a member’, it would be difficult for AMOS to take legitimate or reasonable action. In both of these cases, an established code of conduct would protect the Society as well as its members who adhere to that code. I certainly do not want this piece to be misinterpreted as a criticism of the behavior of any individual or Australian organisation. I believe that our field does operate with integrity (although it would be naïve to assume that we have 100% ethical compliance). Nevertheless, the growing societal and economic impact of our science and the changing political landscape means that AMOS and its members must be proactive regarding issues of ethics and scientific conduct. I present the following questions for members to consider: 1.
Should AMOS enact a code of conduct?
2.
Should formal courses in scientific ethics be included as an integral part of university training in atmospheric science and oceanography?
3.
Should AMOS play any role in continuing education regarding discipline-specific scientific ethics? If so, what level of participation should be expected of members?
It is obvious that our discipline is rapidly evolving and for some we are moving into unfamiliar territory. I believe that taking a more formal approach to scientific ethics is a necessary component of that evolution. Dr Todd Lane is the recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship. The views expressed herein are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Australian Research Council. If you would like to add your voice to this discussion, join the online forum titled AMOS Ethics at www.amos.org.au/forum. -Ed.
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References American Geophysical Union, 1992. American Geophysical Union Policy on Misconduct in Science Available from: www.agu.org/about/ governance/policies/miscond_sci.shtml. American Meteorological Society, 2008. American Meteorological Society Constitution. Article XII. Guidelines for Professional Conduct. Available from: www.ametsoc.org/aboutams/organizationpdfs/ constitution.pdf.
Engineers Australia. Code of Ethics Review 2010. Available from: www.engineersaustralia.org.au/ethics/ Geological Society of Australia. Code of Ethics. Available from: www.gsa.org.au/ management/policies.html Nicholls, N., 2010. AMOS President’s column – July 2010. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 23, 62-63.
AMOS, 2009. Rules and Regulations. Available from: www.amos.org.au/aboutus
The State of Victoria, 2008. Victorian Coastal Strategy. Available from: www.vcc.vic.gov.au/vcs.htm
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, 2009. On being a scientist: A guide to responsible conduct in research. 3rd Ed. The National Academies Press. 64 pp.
Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal, 2008. Gippsland Coastal Board v South Gippsland Shire Council & Others, 1545. Available from: www.vcat.vic.gov.au.
Book Review A Leeuwin tasting plate: A review of the proceedings of the Leeuwin Current Symposium (2007) Prof Jessica Meeuwig Centre for Marine Futures, Oceans Institute, UWA The Leeuwin Current rightly captures the scientific imagination of marine researchers in Western Australia and as such, is a fitting topic for the Journal of the Royal Society of Western Australia. The collected proceedings published under the Royal Society’s banner also represent a natural progression from the 1991 Leeuwin Current Symposium and present a unique opportunity to highlight the gains in knowledge and understanding over the last 16 years. These papers will be of interest to marine scientists nationally and internationally as the Leeuwin Current is a model system for exploring questions related to climate change, productivity and biogeography. It is relevant to managers interested in large-scale processes that influence ecological management units. The contributed papers flow from physical and biological oceanography to organism responses to the environment. The papers include regional reviews as well as updates on particular locations, and in particular the ecology of the Abrolhos Islands, iconically associated with the Leeuwin Current. A number of the papers are perhaps less detailed than may be found in discipline-focused journals but this plays well to the diverse
Figure 1: The cover of the proceedings of the Leewin Current Symposium. backgrounds of those researchers that will find the proceedings of interest. Pearce’s introduction is fitting for proceedings that build on a previous symposium and, in particular his recap of the observations and research on the Leeuwin Current that dates
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back to Saville-Kent and others in 1897 is informative. Wyrwoll et al. then set the stage nicely in terms of the palaeoceanography of the Leeuwin Current, linking it to future climate change scenarios and impacts on biota. D’Adamo et al. propose the Holloway Current which reminds us that significant oceanographic features remain to be understood and indeed indicate that the Leeuwin Current’s proximity to the North West Shelf remains uncertain. The theme of climate change is continued by Feng et al. who consider potential changes to ocean production as a result of an increased understanding of some of the current drivers behind productivity. Cresswell and Domingues explore the question of how far the Leeuwin Current extends, demonstrating that numerical modelling was necessary to understand subsurface trajectories. The Leeuwin Current’s importance to fish distributions is explored by Beckley et al., concluding that a perhaps unexpectedly cosmopolitan mix of oceanic, slope, tropical and temperate species are all to be found in the Current. Lenanton et al. extend on previous analyses to ask whether relationships between the Leeuwin Current strength and the abundance of commercially important species hold with the inclusion of more recent data; their results are prophetic with the recent breakdown of the relationship for western rock lobster. Focal studies along the length of the Leeuwin include a rare study of zooplankton ecology by Hanson and McKinnon, identifying anomalies in production, and extending the work of Lenanton et al. to whale sharks. The Abrolhos Islands are a centrepiece with Phillips and
Huisman confirming the transitional nature of the Islands with respect to marine flora and Watson and Harvey doing the same for fish. Building on the theme that the strength of the Leeuwin Current influences productivity, Surman and Nicholson demonstrate its relationship to seabird reproduction. Cresswell’s contribution highlights the complexity and variability of currents in time and depth, generating strong cross-shelf flows in the Perth region. Tropical fish and oceanography were further explored at Rottnest Island where Pearce and Hutchins demonstrated that, as expected, the strength of the Leeuwin Current influences recruitment but that temperature also plays an important role. Moving further south to the SW Capes, Westera et al. confirm that this region too is part of the transition between tropical and temperate fauna but that flora are largely temperate albeit with a number of new range extensions. Kendrick et al. suggest that the warm winter influence of the Leeuwin Current supports the persistence of warmer water flora and drives their high species turnover. Pattiaratchi and Woo bring the story of the Leeuwin Current full circle by summarizing the typical state of the major features of this coast. The proceedings are for those who wish to have a tasting plate of ideas and data, approaches and integration. A number of papers have excellent colour illustrations that highlight the dynamics of the Leeuwin Current. And as Pearce comments in his introduction, “a key feature of recent work ... has been the interplay between the physics and the biology”. Contributions could have more explicitly demonstrated “what’s new” from the previous symposium but they represent a well referenced pulling together of the state-of-theart for the Leeuwin Current, a system that has lessons for marine students, scientists and managers locally, nationally and internationally. References Pearce, A.F. and Hutchins, J.B. (2009). Oceanic processes and the recruitment of tropical fish at Rottnest Island (Western Australia). In: Meney, K. & M. Brocx (editors) 2009. The Leeuwin Current 2007 Symposium. Journal of the Royal Society of Western Australia 92(2), 179-195.
Figure 2: A sea-surface temperature image of a Leeuwin Current eddy in December 1988 An image from the symposium (from Pearce and Hutchins, 2009).
This book review was published in the Australian Marine Sciences Association Bulletin. Reproduced with permission from Jessica Meeuwig and the Australian Marine Science Association Bulletin.
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Significant Mesoscale Oceanography Coastal sea level and new trial guidance products The sea level observed at tide gauges along the southern coast of Australia often deviates significantly from the astronomical tide prediction due to non-tidal ocean phenomena. The winter months in particular see wind driven surges in the western Great Australian Bight (GAB) propagate along the coast in the form of “coastally trapped waves”. Once initiated, a disturbance of this kind can influence coastal sea level as it propagates along the southern coast, both independently and in approximate superposition to the local winds. Forecasters in the South Australian regional office refer to the impact of remotely generated non-tidal sea level as the “Southern Ocean effect” and it can be a critical factor with regard to storm tide and flood warnings around Adelaide. Evaluation studies have confirmed that Bluelink OceanMAPS can provide skilful forecasts of coastally trapped waves along the southern coast (Taylor et al., 2010). The signatures of these waves are often quite noticeable in the forecast animations on the public website. An illustrative plot is shown in Figure 1. The fact that OceanMAPS provides skilful forecasts of such non-tidal sea-level phenomena has lead to the development of trial guidance products that present an estimate of the “total sea level” at a tide gauge location for the days/week ahead. This product could be considered a type of enhancement to the wellestablished tide prediction products.
Figure 1: OceanMAPS sea level anomaly
To illustrate the performance of the new guidance plots, consider the coastally trapped wave that travelled along the GAB coast in early July 2010. Strong westerly winds oriented parallel to the coast (Figure 2) caused a heaping-up of water mass typically referred to as a surge. Once established, the effect of the localised sea level anomaly propagates along the coast remaining identifiable for sometimes thousands of kilometres. In the Southern Hemisphere the direction of travel for such waves looking out from the coast is to your left (eastwards in the GAB) in response to the
Figure 2: Alongshore westerly winds to the west of the GAB coast Coriolis force. In the GAB this is also the typical direction of atmospheric weather systems and under the right conditions the coastally trapped wave is forced and reinforced by the travelling wind pattern, although atmospheric systems typically propagate faster. Images from the developmental sea level forecast product are shown at 3 locations along the southern coast in Figures 3, 4 and 5. The sequence of images shows the progression of the travelling sea level anomaly from west to east along the coast in both the forecast and observations. The upper axis in each plot overlays total sea level forecast (TSL) (red), tide prediction (grey) and observations (black). The OceanMAPS sea level anomaly component is shown in blue. The lower axis overlays the residual (error) from the TSL forecast (red) and tide prediction (grey). As is apparent from the plots, the occurrence of a coastal wave is not inherently relevant in isolation. Rather, the total effect of such an anomaly in the context of the tide and “inverse barometer” effects is what renders it
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Figure 3. Total sea level guidance plot - Esperance
Figure 4. Total sea level guidance plot - Thevenard (Ceduna)
Figure 5: Total sea level guidance plot – Portland
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significant or otherwise. Thus the impetus of the new guidance plots is to succinctly represent the combination (or superposition) of forecast sources. In this particular case around 12 July 2010, the total sea level forecast and observations well exceeded the nominal “highest astronomical tide” threshold at each station. However, the high water extreme within the Gulf waters was fortunately not large enough to cause any known significant impact. The SA Regional Office did issue a “Storm Tide Advice” to inform coastal councils with respect to engineering responses, but the threshold for a public “storm tide warning” was not reached. Work is ongoing in the development and evaluation of this type of “total sea level” guidance product and in particular it will be trialled at more locations around the Australian coast. In addition, the underlying assumption of superposition will be examined in detail by
using nested regional models that explicitly resolve tides and inverse barometer effects. Recent Ocean Conditions Ocean heat content (OHC) is a measure of the internal thermodynamic energy stored within the water. Changes in upper OHC often reflect the ocean response to atmospheric forcing but can also result from advection and mixing. Upper OHC variability affects sea surface temperature and therefore influences pressure gradients in the atmosphere, altering the winds. The dynamical time and space scales of the atmosphere and ocean are different. The upper OHC monthly means and tendencies from OceanMAPS behind real time analysis (OceanMAPS 2010) provide a good opportunity to understand these scales, look at the predicted effects of weather on the ocean from the operational system and illustrate the mean ocean response to synoptic scale weather. The information also presents the
Figure 6: Examples of comparisons that can be made using the OceanMAPS Behind Real Time Analysis monthly mean ocean heat content website (OceanMAPS 2010).
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resulting heat content that sets the scene for influencing future atmospheric changes, particularly at seasonal timescales. The upper panels in Figure 6, for example, compare upper 50 m OHC tendency for May this year to last year. It suggests that the atmosphere has put more heat into the ocean over the northwest shelf this year compared to last year. Also, in the lower panels of Figure 6, April monthly mean upper ocean heat content anomalies show that during this time shelf currents off southern Australia were more active transporting heat last year than this year.
References OceanMAPS, 2010. OceanMAPS Monthly Mean Heat Content for the Australian Region. Available from godae.bom.gov.au/ oceanmaps_analysis/ocean_clim/ocean_clim.s html. Taylor, A., G. B. Brassington, G.B and Nader J,-R., 2010: Operational non-tidal sea level forecasts: Preliminary skill assessment of BLUElink OceanMAPSv1.0b against coastal tide gauges, CAWCR technical report (in press).
Snapshot
Crepuscular Halo John Allen School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne Taken near Echuca, Victoria. A rapidly rising cumulus tower on a cold winters day obscured the sun creating a polarised set of crepuscular rays. Image reproduced with permission from John Allen. If you have a snapshot to share, send your image (as high quality as possible) via email and send to me at the address inside the back cover. Please include a description of what, where and when, as well as who took it. Images will be published in the AMOS Bulletin and on the AMOS website, with the best for each issue (as determined by the editorial team) used as the cover image. –Ed.
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Significant Weather June Summary A strong cold front crossed over the southeast of the country on the 16th-18th, causing damage over much of Victoria and minor flooding in northeast Tasmania. Wind
Victoria
South Australia Strong north to northwest winds were recorded in southern areas on the 16th and 17th, ahead of a frontal system. Gale force winds were briefly recorded at Cape Jaffa on the south east coast late on the 16th, with gusts of 102 km/hr recorded in the early hours of the 17th. Gusts of 98 km/hr were also recorded on Kangaroo Island. Tasmania Gusts of 144 km/hr were recorded on the 18 on Swan Island, associated with a squall line.
River moderate flooding occurred, and the river at Fingal peaked at 5 m on the morning of the 18th. Both rivers continued to rise on the 19th due to additional rain overnight, and a second peak was reached before the water gradually subsided on the 20th.
th
This is the strongest wind gust recorded since the weather station opened in October 2001 (the previous record was 120 km/h, in April 2006). Around 5000 houses between Boat Harbour and Penguin in the state’s north lost power overnight on the 28th!29th due to strong winds. Strong gusts were reported around the area, including 94 km/hr at Cape Grim, 85 km/hr at Low Head and 76 km/hr at Devonport Airport. Flooding Tasmania The northeast of Tasmania was subject to minor flooding from the 17th – 20th, after a strong cold front brought heavy rain and storms to the North and South Esk river catchments. Several sites in and around the northeast highlands received over 50 mm on the 17th alone, with 85 mm falling at Mount Victoria. In the upper reaches of the South Esk
On the 25th a minor flood warning as issued for the Seven Creeks and Castle Creeks catchments in response to over 30 mm of rainfall on the previous day. Rising water levels may have caused some flooding in lowlying areas. Storms Victoria The front associated with severe winds in South Australia on the 17th also caused damage over much of Victoria as well as a death. A line of showers and thunderstorms developed along the front/trough over south central parts of the state during the morning and propagated eastwards, resulting in several reports of wind damage. The SES received 17 calls in Mount Pleasant that were all in a line, suggesting a possible tornado or downburst. Powerlines were also brought down in Ballarat. A 42 year old woman was killed when a tree branch fell at Woori Yallock east of Melbourne. Extensive damage was caused in Wangaratta when the storm hit just after midday. Powerlines were blown down, trees were uprooted and several buildings were damaged. Snow Tasmania Snow was recorded as low as 250 m in the south of the state on the 10th, due to a strong cold front that passed through on the 9th. There were also reports of 6 cm of snow cover at Lower Longley, which is about 350 m above sea level.
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July Summary
SES, and winds of up to 100 km/hr were recorded across the state. A wildlife shelter and a house were damaged due to tree falls in Healesville, and a 15-metre tower fell at a football oval in the Melbourne suburb of Coburg.
Several storms crossed the south of Australia during the middle of the month. Widespread damage was reported and large amounts of rain were recorded in southwestern Western Australia as a result.
Western Australia
Storms
Perth received 92.8 mm of rain over four days from the 9th –12th due to a strong cold front and associated pool of cold air. On the 9th, storm damage was reported across the southwest of the state and even as far north as Geraldton. A couple were injured in the Perth suburb of Parkwood when a tree fell on their house and the man was trapped in bed. Two other people were rescued when the 10-metre yacht they were in crashed into rocks during the storms. Many roofs were torn off houses due to strong winds.
South Australia South Australia was hit with thunderstorms on the 13th and 14th, causing widespread blackouts and numerous disruptions to transport throughout Adelaide. An abalone farm near Elliston was seriously damaged, and crops were ruined by winds of over 100 km/hr and heavy rain on the Eyre Peninsula. Hail fell in Adelaide, and some areas of the Adelaide hills recorded more than 40 mm of rain. The SES received around 100 calls, including one for a man who became stranded on the roof of his house after attempting to unblock his gutters during the deluge.
Fog New South Wales
st
On the 31 , a suspect tornado struck the town of Penola, causing a 50 m wide path of damage that stretched for 3 km. The damage bill is expected to run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Widespread fog was recorded across Sydney on the 29th and 30th, causing flight delays and transport disruptions. The fog on the 30th in particular caused issues, with low visibility recorded as far out as Western Sydney.
Victoria
Queensland
A squall line passed across Victoria on the 10th, causing widespread wind damage. Over 200 calls for assistance were received by the
Widespread fog and low level cloud also affected southeastern Queensland on the 30th.
Records In this section, noteworthy records that been broken are summarised. For a detailed report, follow the link below.
June New South Wales
South Australia
No report of records broken.
No noteworthy records.
Northern Territory
Tasmania
•
Warruwi equalled its highest June mean maximum temperature of 30.4˚C (previously set in 2003).
•
Seven stations recorded their wettest June day on the 17th, with several stations breaking records that had been held for over 50 years.
•
Seven stations also recorded the driest July on record. Kellevie on the east coast received 16.4mm, 0.1mm less than the previously driest June in 1913. Hobart Airport received only 4.2mm.
Queensland •
Three stations in northern Queensland recorded their warmest mean maximum June temperatures: Willis Island, Horn Island and Weipa Aero. Willis Island broke the previous record set in 1973 (27.9˚C compared with 27.7˚C).
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 23 page 85
and 27th. Norseman recorded a minimum temperature of –4.6˚C on the 27th, smashing the previous record from June 16 1960 of –2.8˚C.
Victoria •
Lima South, near Lake Nillahcootie, recorded 20.8mm of rain, its lowest June rainfall on record. The previous record of 25.9mm was set in 1969.
•
Western Australia •
16 stations reported the lowest June rainfall on record, with ten stations breaking the previous records set in 2006.
Seven stations broke their records for the lowest minimum temperature on the 26th
July New South Wales •
•
New South Wales recorded its wettest July since 1998, although only one station (White Cliffs Post Office) recorded its highest July rainfall on record (104.4mm compared with 84.8 mm in 1981). Six stations recorded their highest July minimum on record on the 31st of July, with Gosford recording the warmest July evening since 1978 (14˚C compared with 13.1˚C).
Northern Territory •
•
Darwin recorded its warmest July on record, while Alice Springs recorded its coldest July day, with a maximum of only 7.0˚C on the 6th. Darwin also recorded a minimum of 26.6°C on the 26th, while Cape Don had 26.9°C. These both exceeded the previous Australian record for July. Much rain fell on the 6th and 7th, leading to records of maximum daily rainfall being set at 12 stations. 12 stations also recorded their wettest July.
Queensland •
•
Eight stations recorded their coldest July maximum on records on 7th, including the Tambo Post Office, which recorded its coldest July day since 1957 (9.7˚C compared to 10.0˚C). Six stations recorded their highest mean daily maximum for July. The township of Croyden equaled its previous record of 31.3˚C, set in 1913. Interestingly, two of the other stations are located on islands (Lady Elliot and Willis Islands).
South Australia No report of records broken
Tasmania •
Seven stations had their lowest July rainfall on record, including Hobart Airport, which recorded only 4.0mm.
•
Macquarie Island equalled its warmest July day on record, with a maximum of 8.3˚C. As a state, Tasmania recorded its warmest daytime July temperatures on record.
Victoria •
Four stations recorded their lowest July rainfall on record. Two stations (Glenmaggie Weir and Valencia Creek) recorded monthly rainfalls under 3mm.
Western Australia •
Six stations recorded their wettest July on record. Four of these stations (Derby Aero, Country Downs, Dampier Downs and Nita Downs) more than doubled the previous records, all of which were set in 1978.
•
Eight stations recorded their driest July on record. Gingin had its driest July in the 120 years of the station, with only 39.0mm falling.
Information obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology, Weatherzone and ABC News. Further information: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/ index.shtml While all care has been taken to ensure accuracy, this summary is by no means exhaustive. If you have access to additional information regarding significant weather events, or would like to contribute to this section of the Bulletin, please get in contact –Ed.
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 23 page 86
Charts From The Past by Blair Trewin 10 July, 1995 July 1995 was a winter month of a type not often seen in the last 20 years. The subtropical ridge was north of its usual position, and there were strong westerly anomalies over much of southern mainland Australia. This made it a very wet month in many locations exposed to the westerlies, with monthly rainfall in the highest decile over much of the wheatbelt in southwest Western Australia, southern South Australia and northern Victoria. Some records were set near Adelaide. It was also a very cool month in the southeast of Australia. Victoria’s mean maxima for July 1995 were 1.30°C below normal, making it the coldest month of the post-1950 period. Canberra failed to reach 10°C on 24 days between 15 June and 6 August. Frontal passages with showers and relatively low-level snowfalls were a regular feature of the month, but some of the most abnormal cold came by more unconventional means. Over the weekend of 8-9 July, persistent fog developed over northern Victoria and southern inland New South Wales. In some places the fog lasted all day and some very low maxima were recorded, including a record of 6.1°C at Hay on 8 July. On the 9th, record low maxima included 2.9°C at Tumbarumba, 3.1°C at Corryong, 4.7°C at Bendigo and 5.0°C at Parkes. The weak solar radiation, so close to the solstice, was insufficient to fully break down low-level inversions, which resulted in a deeper inversion layer developing, reaching up to about 1200 m elevation. North-westerly winds developed overnight on the 9th ahead of an approaching front. By then, the inversion was sufficiently deep that the winds did not break it down, and the cold air was advected southwards over central Victoria during the day on the 10th. Daytime
temperatures were exceptionally low throughout the region, and the strong winds and resultant wind chill further exacerbated the conditions. Melbourne’s daytime maximum temperature was only 6.9°C, the coldest since 1901. It warmed somewhat overnight after the frontal passage (something foretold by a forecast which read “bitterly cold northerly winds turning milder westerly later”), but the 24-hour maximum there, of 8.5°C, was still the lowest of the last 24 years. Other notable daytime maxima included 2°C at Ballarat, 3°C at Castlemaine and 4°C at Bendigo, although all three warmed considerably by the next morning. Snow fell in the Dandenongs and around Daylesford, and Trentham experienced freezing drizzle - a very rare phenomenon in Australia. The alpine areas were above the inversion on 10 July so conditions were much less exceptional, with Mount Hotham’s maximum of !0.7°C only slightly below normal. Rainfall totals in Victoria were modest, with daily falls generally 5-10 mm on the Great Dividing Range and 1-5 mm elsewhere. Heavier rain fell in northern Tasmania, peaking at 44 mm at Mawbanna. A cloudband ahead of an approaching front brought 25-50 mm to parts of the WA wheatbelt, with 53 mm at Toodyay. In contrast, July 1995 was a warm month in northern Australia, with numerous records set in Queensland on 13 and 14 July. This set the scene for a very warm August in southeastern Australia once the circulation shifted early in that month. However, the topsy-turvy conditions were not over – snow fell in central Melbourne on 6 September, the only instance of the last 40 years.
Synoptic chart for 0000 UTC (1000 AEST), 10 July 1995
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 23 page 87
Calendar 2010
13–17 AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, USA.
September 27–1 October Ninth Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and Processes, Annapolis, USA.
13-17 EFS Extreme Environmental Events, Cambridge, UK. 2011
October
January
13–15 Southern Exposure: Australia-New Zealand Climate Forum, Hobart.
23–27 91st AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, USA.
18–22 Third WMO International Conference on Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting and Hydrology, Nanjing, China.
February
24–28 WRCP Open Science Conference, Denver, USA. November 1–5 US CLIVAR Reanalysis Conference, Baltimore, USA.
11–13 18th AMOS National Conference (joint with NZMetSoc), Wellington, NZ. April 4–8 Greenhouse 2011: The Science of Climate Change, Cairns. 10–15 34th International Symposium Remote Sensing of Environment. Sydney.
on
June
December 7–10 IEEE Sixth International Conference on e-Science, Brisbane.
27–8 July IUGG XXV General Assembly, Melbourne.
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal. Vol. 60 No. 2, June 2010. Articles:
Regular features:
Nudelman, Smith, and Reeder. A climatology of pressure jumps around the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Fawcett. Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (spring 2009): rapid intensification of El Niño, drier than average in northern and eastern Australia and warmer than average throughout.
Saavedra, Wullar and Foppiano. On the climatology of surface wind direction frequencies for the central Chilean coast. Trewin and Vermont. Changes in the frequency of record temperature in Australia, 1957-2009. Marshall, Xiao, Norman, Zhang, Rea, Cucurull, Seecalp, Steinle, Puri and Le. The beneficial impact of radio occultation observations on Australian region forecasts
Wu. Quarterly numerical weather prediction model performance summary January to March 2010 Further Information: http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/
Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 23 page 88
2010 AMOS Council Executive President VicePresident Secretary Treasurer Past President
Sub-Committee Convenors Neville Nicholls Blair Trewin
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Public Relations Awards Conferences Education
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2010 Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society ISSN 1035-6576 Editor
Editorin-chief Assistant Editors
Linden Ashcroft School of Earth Sciences The University of Melbourne VIC 3010 Phone: 03-8344 7672 Fax: 03-8344 7761 Email: l.ashcroft@pgrad.unimelb.edu.au Stewart Allen Email: Stewart.Allen@bom.gov.au Diana Greenslade Blair Trewin Andrew Watkins Keith Barnett
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Michael Hewson (Brisbane) Caecilia Ewenz (Adelaide) Damien Irving (Melbourne) Sandra Schuster (Sydney) Blair Trewin Gary Brassington Paul Sandery Please contact the Admin. Officer. AMOS, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia
Contributed articles, news, announcements and correspondence for the Bulletin should be sent to the editor no later than the 27th of September 2010. They will be reviewed and the galley proofs returned to the author if requested. An ASCII version of the text is required via e-mail or digital media to minimise typographic errors. The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society is produced and distributed with the assistance of CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and the Bureau of Meteorology. AMOS Web Site: http//www.amos.org.au/