BAMOS OCT/NOV 2015

AMOS

AustralianMeteorological

& OceanographicSociety

AMOS takes to the air Ancient ocean acidification mystery

2016 Australian Weather Calendar Is the media interested in climate change?

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society Vol 28, No. 5, OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2015 ISSN 1035-6576

Contents

Editorial....................................................................................................................................................................... 127

President’s Column ..................................................................................................................................................... 128

News ........................................................................................................................................................................... 129

IAMAS News ............................................................................................................................................................... 134

News from the Centres ............................................................................................................................................... 135

Conference Report: ‘Our Common Future under Climate Change’ Conference (CFCC) report................................... 145

Article: Increased media interest in climate change.................................................................................................. 147

Article: Solving the PETM ocean acidification mystery ............................................................................................. 149

The Research Corner with Damien Irving: Managing your data ............................................................................... 150

Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin: 20 March 1978 ............................................................................................ 152

ISSN 1035-6576

Cover picture: The cover shot for the 2016 Australian Weather Calendar: Rain over sand dunes, near Mungo, NSW. The photographer was travelling through Mungo National Park in late February 2014, knowing the 40°C temperatures and instability from a low-pressure ‘trough’ through the region could make for some dramatic weather.

“I noticed the convection develop 50 km to the northwest of my location. Determined to catch it, I made my way through 30 km of 4WD tracks, and scaled multiple sand dunes to this ridge line, to arrive just in time as the storm hit, and proceeded to dump: rain, thunder and lightning, and outflow winds of an estimated 70 km/h.”

Image: Tony Middleton.

Unless specifically stated to the contrary, views expressed in the Bulletin are the personal views of the authors, and do not represent the views of the Society or any other organisation or institution to which the author(s) may be affiliated.

Editorial

Tick-tock

Time: it’s just one of the many things we can’t control in life, and something we may all be feeling the pressure of this time of year. (How long have those Christmas “shops” been on display for now? I think at least two months).

Thinking back, I recall my first test at university was to draw and label the geological timescale in as much detail as possible. The time we were given to “learn” the timescale (I had never seen it before) was just one night.

It was worth something like 5% of our final mark for first year geology. Though that was just the start of a miserable journey for me, time itself still fascinates me.

Much has happened in Australia in the time since the last issue of BAMOS: Australia now has a new Prime Minister (who got down to business pretty quickly and has already awarded his first round of Prime Minister’s Science Prizes); Alan Finkel was announced as the next Chief Scientist; NASA found evidence of flowing water on Mars; and of course, one of the best—in my opinion—movie trilogies about time, was (or, should have been!) celebrated with “Back to the Future Day”.

Time is also a key feature of our AMOS 2016 conference theme: “From Minutes to Millennia”. This theme reflects the challenges that scientists experience when working on different and sliding timescales, but also draws from the past to address future challenges.

There are now less than three months left until AMOS 2016—though AMOS 2015 was only four months ago.

Having two consecutive conferences so close together has meant that much of the efforts of the Society has been on

conferences for the past year or so—and this will continue to be so until AMOS 2016 draws to a close.

However, for this issue of BAMOS, I am particularly grateful to everyone who contributed such great articles and pictures—it means that the focus in this issue drifts away from the AMOS conferences and instead takes a closer look at what some of our active AMOS Centres have been up to.

(But just in case you forgot about AMOS 2016, I’ve posted a reminder for you below).

Tom Beer also takes us across to Paris, where he recently attended the preparatory science conference before the upcoming COP21 meeting.

Neville Nicholls examines media interest in climate change, and Kaitlin Alexander takes us through the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum ocean acidification mystery.

As always, I also learned a great deal from our regular columnists Blair Trewin and Damien Irving.

It was exciting for me to receive and read these stories for BAMOS, and I hope that you all enjoy reading them too.

See you next time!

Melissa Lyne Editor

AMOS/ARCCSS National Conference 2016 From minutes to millennia: traversing the scales 8-11 February, 2016

Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre (MCEC), Melbourne, Australia

The Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) joint National Conference 2016 will feature a central theme on scales – from turbulent eddies to palaeoclimates, and cloud microphysics to planetaryscale ocean circulations. There will be a focus on the processes in our atmosphere, oceans and on the land surface, and their interactions across different time and space scales.

For more information - visit www.imis100ap1.com.au/AMOS/ac2016

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 127

President’s Column

Positioning AMOS policies A question that I’m sometimes asked and have difficulty answering is: “What is the AMOS policy / position / view on ______ ?”. I can certainly answer this question about my views and about what I think AMOS policy should be. However, my opinions are not AMOS policy and may not properly represent the views of the AMOS membership. Unfortunately, AMOS currently has few actual formal policies or positions. This is a challenge for us as a society and limits our ability to meet our strategic goals to be advocates for our profession and be a source of independent information.

AMOS policies must reflect the broad views of the membership, along with being consistent with the highest quality peer-reviewed scientific evidence available. Our positions should be in line with our expertise, formed with the desire to inform and educate the general public and provide policy relevant information to governments.

AMOS policy must underpin AMOS submissions to government inquiries and other public statements (e.g., to the media).

In the recent past most AMOS statements or submissions have been created by members of the AMOS Executive with input and subsequent approval by the AMOS Council.

Often this process occurs on very short timelines. This approach is certainly within the AMOS rules but, in my opinion, has sometimes proven to be an ineffective way to form policy. Except for AMOS members’ role in electing Council, the AMOS membership is not included in much of the current policy process. Yet, the most robust forms of AMOS policy should also include feedback from the membership and thus truly representing the views of the Society.

If this became our strict measure of what defines AMOS policies then we only have a few in place: the AMOS rules, and the AMOS strategic and operational plans. These have all been created through consultation with the entire AMOS membership but are not outward-looking policies.

We also had the AMOS position statement on climate change, our only position statement, which was adopted almost 10 years ago through a member-wide consultation process. (Council has since retired this statement when it became out-dated).

In discussions with the American Meteorological Society (AMS) leadership we’ve learned that they have addressed

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this issue by devising a highly structured way of creating policy—for a large part through their policy and position statement process. The AMS currently has more than 30 statements in force, and each is created through a rigorous procedure involving experts, AMS Council, and the AMS membership. These policies form the basis of essentially all of their public commentary, which is drawn from relevant parts of the appropriate statements.

I advocate a similar approach for AMOS, where we devise a range of policies and positions to facilitate better engagement with the public and advocacy on behalf of our field. Our size makes it unrealistic to create 30 or more statements, but we certainly need more than we currently have.

As a starting point we are in the process of updating the AMOS position statement on climate change. Many thanks to Blair Trewin and Ailie Gallant for leading this effort, as well as AMOS Council for their feedback to date. The draft statement has recently been circulated for member comment. Once comments are received and adequately addressed (to the satisfaction of the AMOS Council) this statement will become AMOS policy.

Although critically important, AMOS positions should not be limited to climate change. There are many topics in our fields that deserve formal statements. As you may recall, we are currently creating a small number of AMOS expert groups—these groups will help AMOS broaden our policy portfolio through leading the writing of other AMOS position statements.

The consultative processes used to create AMOS policy will likely lead to some issues being portrayed more conservatively than some people might like. Yet, these concerns should be outweighed by the value of having positions that broadly represent the views of the entire Society. The statements will be valuable, not only for our purposes, but to inform and educate the general public and governments. Indeed the previous version of the AMOS position statement on climate change was highly valuable in that regard.

Todd Lane

News

AMOS members become new Fellows and Tall Poppies

Top: Fellows of the AMS Dr. Harry Hendon (left) and Prof. Andy Pitman (right); Above: Young Tall Poppies Dr. Ailie Gallant (left) and Dr. Sophie Lewis (right)— who is also our 2014 AMOS Early Career Researcher Award winner. Images: supplied by each winner.

Congratulations to AMOS members Dr. Harry Hendon and Prof. Andy Pitman who were recently made Fellows of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The Fellowships are awarded each year to those who made “outstanding contributions to the atmospheric or related oceanic or hydrologic sciences or their applications during a substantial period of years.”

Congratulations also to Dr. Ailie Gallant and Dr. Sophie Lewis for winning a Victorian and ACT Young Tall Poppy of the Year Award, respectively. The awards are run state-by-state by the Australian Institute of Policy and Science (AIPS). Created in 1998, the Tall Poppy Campaign recognises and celebrates Australian scientific excellence, and encourages younger Australians to follow in the footsteps of the award recipients. Candidates for the Young Tall Poppy awards are nominated by their peers

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and are early career researchers who have less than 10 years post-doctoral experience.

Each award winner spends a year sharing their knowledge with school students, teachers and the broader community through workshops, seminars and public lectures.

Dr. Gallant says, “I’m humbled to be part of the Tall Poppy Awards, which acknowledge the role of both good science and good communication in a scientist’s career.”

“Great science happens all the time, but that science isn’t transferable if people don’t know about it. That’s why effective science communication is crucial.”

Information on the AMS Fellowships can be found at: https://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/about-ams/ ams-awards-honors/fellows/ and more information on the Tall Poppy Campaign can be found at: http://www.aips. net.au/tall-poppies/tall-poppy-campaign/

News

2016 Australian Weather Calendar now available

February image for the 2016 Australian Weather Calendar: Dust devil near Mount Bryan. Image: Jacob Elliot.

Co-produced by the Bureau and AMOS, the not-for­ profit Australian Weather Calendar is the country’s most popular calendar.

Each year, the publication attracts hundreds of entries from across the Australian community. Entries exceeded 800 for the 2016 version—the 32nd year of its publication.

Each image in the calendar is accompanied by an explanation of the underlying meteorology, The image above is February’s feature. This was captured

by Jacob Elliot in South Australia. He was chasing a storm near Mt Bryan in South Australia, on 7 January 2015, hoping to take some photos of the lightning. When he looked back towards Burra and saw a towering dust devil, his objective changed.

Dust devils, or willy-willies, are formed when a localised pocket of hot air rises quickly through cooler air above it. The rapidly rising air pocket is replaced by air rushing in below it. This inflowing air often arrives in an uneven manner and can start to rotate. As the air pocket continues to rise and stretch, the speed of rotation increases, in the Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 130

same way as a twirling ballet dancer drawing in their arms and legs spins faster. In dry areas, dust is drawn into the rotating air column—giving dust devils their name and distinct appearance. Jacob was using a Canon 600D with an EF-S 18–55 mm lens.

The AMOS Melbourne, NSW and ACT regional centres now have calendars to sell. If you live in these regions please do consider purchasing your calendar through AMOS, as this is the major fundraising activity of the year for these regional centres. Melbourne has a large number of calendars available at Monash University, University of Melbourne and CSIRO. Otherwise, you can buy your calendars through the Bureau of Meteorology. Go to the Bureau shop online at: http://shop.bom.gov.au/, or call 1300 798 789.

The calendars are priced at: •

A2 $13.00 for AMOS members, $15.00 for non­ members;

•

A4 $11.00 for AMOS members, $13.00 for non­ members.

News

Australia’s new icebreaker revealed

Australian Antarctic Division

A depiction of the new icebreaker. Image: Damen/DMS Maritime/Knud E Hansen A/S, courtesy of the Australian Antarctic Division.

Last month, the Australian Government revealed plans for Australia’s new icebreaker—a modern, sophisticated ship offering scientists unprecedented and extended access to the Southern Ocean and Antarctica.

The new icebreaker is expected to be commissioned in October 2019.

The once-in-a-generation investment by the Australian Government forms the centrepiece of Australia’s Antarctic presence and will influence the shape of Australia’s Antarctic programme for decades to come.

The icebreaker will be faster, larger, stronger and offer increased endurance compared with the ageing Aurora Australis which has been battling the stormy Southern Ocean since 1989.

The new ship provides a modern platform for marine science research in both sea ice and open water and a moon pool for launching and retrieving remotely operated vehicles. A multi-beam bathymetric echo sounder will enable seafloor mapping, while portable and flexible science laboratories will offer scientists space to conduct cutting edge research.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 131

The capabilities of the new icebreaker. Image: Australian Antarctic Division.

News

Spectacular new era in satellite meteorology unveiled

Bureau of Meteorology

Sun rising over Australia, as seen from the Himawari-8.

Image: Bureau of Meteorology, bom.gov. au/australia/satellite.

The Bureau now has near real-time imagery from the Japanese Himawari-8 satellite available to the public via its new web viewer. Himawari-8 is currently the most advanced dedicated weather satellite in the world.

Bureau Director and CEO Dr. Rob Vertessy said the benefits are enormous.

“Himawari-8 is one giant leap in satellite meteorology: it’s like switching from black and white TV to high definition colour in one jump. Or you could compare it to switching from the grainy images of the silent era to IMAX. You can see unfolding weather in detail we’ve only dreamed of in the past. But it’s more than just eye-candy for our forecasters,” Dr. Vertessy said.

“Himawari-8 generates about 50 times more data than the previous satellite. Our forecasters now have access to 16 observation wavebands that capture important detail from many layers of the atmosphere,” he said.

“Previously we received a satellite image just once every hour, now we get a detailed scan of our part of the globe every 10 minutes. It brings the conditions on earth to life.”

“Combined with the coming upgrade to our supercomputer, Himawari-8 is a game changer. Weather computer models ingest data and extrapolate to provide Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 132

a forecast. The better the data we put in, the better the forecast that comes out.”

“Our forecasters are now starting to make use of the vast quantity of new data. One of the most immediate benefits is the ability to see storms as they develop. We expect to see continual growth in our use of the data over the coming years.”

Jamie Briggs, Minister for Cities and the Built Environment, attended the launch on behalf of the Australian community. Japan’s Ambassador to Australia, Mr Sumio Kusaka, attended as Japan’s representative.

Dr. Vertessy expressed gratitude to the Japan Meteorological Agency for making the data from Himawari-8 freely available to Australia.

“There is a wonderful tradition of global cooperation in meteorology. The Japan Meteorological Agency is making a big investment in Himawari-8, close to a billion Australian dollars, and the Australian community can share the benefits. We are extremely grateful for the excellent relationship we have with our counterparts in Japan,” he said.

The public can view Himawari-8’s images via the Bureau’s web viewer at: bom.gov.au/australia/satellite.

News

Six months of El Niño—event still going strong

Bureau of Meteorology

It is now six months since the 2015 El Niño became established in the Pacific. During this time, oceanic and atmospheric indicators have been persistently strong, comparable to the events of 1997–98 and 1982–83.

International climate models suggest the peak in El Niño sea surface temperatures is likely to occur before the end of the year, then gradually ease in the first quarter of 2016.

Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, as of 10 November, are around 2.4 °C above average, the largest anomaly for this event so far. Other indicators of El Niño, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line, and trade winds, still reflect strong El Niño conditions, despite some weakening in the SOI in early November.

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is also persisting. This event has been in place for over three months. International climate models expect the positive IOD to break down during November and early December.

More broadly, Indian Ocean temperatures remain very warm: the October sea surface temperatures anomaly for the Southern Hemisphere Indian Ocean was the highest positive anomaly for any month on record.

El Niño is usually associated with below-average spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and increased spring daytime temperatures south of the tropics. A positive IOD typically reinforces the drying pattern, particularly in the southeast. During summer, El Niño’s influence on rainfall decreases, while warmer daytime and night-time temperatures continue to be more likely across the south and east.

Australia better prepared for drought with new programme

Bureau of Meteorology

As a strengthening El Niño brings drier, warmer weather to Australia—potentially expanding drought affected areas—Bureau of Meteorology Director and CEO Dr. Rob Vertessy says the country is better able to anticipate the impacts on water resources thanks to the Australian Government’s Improving Water Information Programme.

Speaking during National Water Week last month, Dr. Vertessy explained the national programme was initiated at the peak of the Millennium Drought, following frustration amongst water policy makers due to inadequate information on the state of Australia’s water resources.

Dr. Vertessy said: “The Millennium Drought made us acutely aware of how tenuous our water security was.

Well into that drought we had a very piecemeal view of how much water was held in storage, present in aquifers, running in rivers and being used in rural areas.”

“Furthermore, we had no ability to forecast the volume of water flowing into our reservoirs in the weeks and months ahead, making it even harder to manage our severely diminished water supplies at the time.”

That situation was the catalyst for the creation of the Improving Water Information Programme, founded on the ethos that “you cannot properly manage what you do not measure.”

Since the start of that programme eight years ago, the Bureau of Meteorology—the lead national organisation for collecting and disseminating water information under the Federal Water Act 2007—has released an extensive portfolio of new water information products and services.

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The Bureau has been working closely with State water agencies, urban and rural water utilities and research organisations to enhance the availability and value of water information, and to provide a nationally consistent view with weather and climate data provided by the Bureau.

One of the key services coming out of this work is the National Water Account, which documents annual changes in water stores and flows, water rights and water use in Australia’s most significant water supply systems.

The recent inclusion of Queensland’s Burdekin region means the account now captures up to 85% of Australia’s water use.

Various online products accessible on the Bureau’s website provide continuous updates on the amount of water held in water storages, on the volume of river flows, on groundwater levels, on water restrictions and on water market activity.

The Bureau now provides valuable insight into what lies ahead too, forecasting river flows for the next seven days at over 100 sites and seasonal streamflow outlooks for over 140 sites across the nation.

“We’ve come a long way since the Millennium Drought, with much improved situational awareness and foresight regarding our nation’s most valuable natural resource: water,” Dr. Vertessy said.

“The next time Australia approaches a serious water security crisis we won’t be flying blind. Our vastly improved water information will mean that governments, businesses and communities are far better prepared and able to action mitigation strategies much sooner and at a lower cost,” he said.

IAMAS News

International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric

Sciences (IAMAS) news Tom Beer

IAMAS Australian National Correspondent

Report from the IUGG General Assembly, Prague, 21 June to 2 July 2015

•

The IAMAS Executive consists of the Chairs of the IAMAS Commissions, the Officers of IAMAS, and three members at large. At the IUGG General Assembly the Executive reports to the IAMAS National Correspondents who then elect new members at large. In my report as Australian National Correspondent I wrote that despite the significant scientific activity in Australia, the last Australian representative on the IAMAS Executive committee was Dr. Robert Vincent of the University of Adelaide during the 2003–2007 period, and thus Australia formally nominated Dr. Lisa Alexander of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science for this position.

I am pleased to report that Lisa was elected.

Because IAMAS is one of the eight scientific associations that comprise IUGG, the IAMAS meeting was embedded in the larger assembly. Some items of relevance were:

There was also a substantial change in the Executive.

John Turner took over as the new IAMAS President.

Hans Volkert retired as Secretary-General to be replaced

by Teruyuki (Terry) Nakajima from Japan. To show my personal appreciation I presented Hans with a copy of the novel Turbulence, a fictionalised story that deals with L.F. Richardson.

Other items of interest from IAMAS were: •

The IAMAS National Correspondents were informed of Melita Keywood’s taking on the role of Vice-Chair of the International Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution (ICACGP).

Tom Beer, IUGG Immediate Past President, presenting a copy of the novel Turbulence to mark Hans Volkert’s retirement as SecretaryGeneral. Image: supplied by Tom Beer.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 134

The next IAMAS Scientific Assembly will be held in South Africa jointly with IAPSO and with IAGA in Capetown; 27 August–1 September 2017.

•

The next IUGG General Assembly is to be in Montreal in 2019.

•

The new President of IUGG is Michael Sideris of Canada.

•

Chris Rizos from the University of New South Wales, whose term as President of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) finished this year, stood for a position on the IUGG Bureau and was successful.

•

Kathy Whaler was elected as Vice-President, which is the first time that IUGG has had a female VicePresident.

•

A resolution on International Scientific Activities and Cooperation was submitted by the USA and passed by the General Assembly. It urges IUGG members to be steadfast in their work. I suspect it is aimed at governments such as those of USA, Canada and Australia where science funding and thus international science cooperation is under threat.

The meeting held a Panel on Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) with speakers such as Arthur Askew, the IUGG liaison to WMO, Filipe Lucio, who is in charge of GFCS, and Roger Pulwarty.

News from the Centres

NSW Centre news Anthony Kiem

Chair, NSW Regional Centre On Wednesday 28 October, the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC) hosted the AMOS NSW Postgraduate Symposium.

Presentations were given by honours, masters and Ph.D. students from UNSW, the University of Newcastle and the University of Wollongong. This allowed students to practice their presentation skills, share their science and findings and meet other likeminded students. A panel of postdocs and early/middle career researchers shared their experience of findings jobs, handling paper and thesis review comments, dealing with job uncertainty and allowed students to ask many questions.

The AMOS NSW Members dinner was also held on the same evening. Guest speaker Professor Guoqiang Wang from the College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, China, discussed their involvement in the Three Gorges Reservoir (pre, during and post construction). He talked about the issues surrounding water resource management to supply the 12 million people who live in Beijing with their daily water needs.

This was finished with lots of discussion, questions and networking. A great night was had by all.

AMOS Sydney Weatherwatch Group

Michael Scollay Weatherwatch

The next meeting of the AMOS Sydney Weatherwatch Group will be held in the Jacaranda Room of the Uniting Church at Turramurra on Wednesday 25 November, commencing 7:30 p.m. for a 7:45 p.m. first presentation start.

The main topic for the evening is “Antarctic Ice Shelves and Southern Ocean Circulation: The key to predicting sealevel rise”. The guest speaker will be Kaitlin Alexander, a Ph.D. student specialising in the modelling of sub-ice shelf circulation in the Southern Ocean, from the Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC) at the University of New South Wales (UNSW).

Other items on the night will include: •

General group discussion about recent weather events, in particular, the progress of the “Super El Niño” and the mini-heat wave in early October.

•

The “Surprising” 2015 snow season by Michael Scollay.

Close is expected from around 9:45 p.m.

To RSVP please phone (02) 9416 1189, mobile 0423 555 240 or reply-to: michael.scollay@gmail.com.

ACT Centre news Clem Davis

ACT Regional Centre The ACT branch held a meeting on 23 October with a talk on the search for MH 370 and the oceanographic mapping that is taking place by Stuart Minchin from Geoscience Australia.

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The branch will be holding its student presentation night and AGM on 26 November from 5:30 p.m. at the Fenner School of Environment and Society ANU (Building 48/ LT F102). This includes pizzas and nibbles. If anyone is in Canberra they are welcome to attend.

News from the Centres

Brisbane Centre news Michael Hewson

Secretary, Brisbane Regional Centre On Thursday 5 November, some 20 or so members and guests of the Brisbane Regional Centre of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society met for a bite of lunch. This included a briefing about the summer weather outlook from Dr. Richard Wardle. Richard is the Supervising Meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Regional Office.

After catching up on atmospheric, climate and oceanographic interests of participants over lunch, we learnt about the Queensland summer to come—outlooks for tropical cyclones, storms and bushfires in the context of lingering El Niño climatological conditions. Richard took some time to comment on what has been learnt about flood history post-El Niño periods as well.

The meeting discussed briefly the merits of tying an entire outlook on a single climate index, noting the competing needs of public communication and the complexities being explored by atmospheric science.

Thanks to Tamika Tihema and Katie Rosemond, Bureau staff and AMOS members, for arranging the session. It was a good rollup of members.

The Brisbane Regional Centre has some plans for some further meetings, including an early February talk from Professor Roger Smith on Northern Australian meteorological phenomena.

Later in 2016 we hope to possibly arrange a workshop where participants can work up an accreditation on climate risk assessment—that will be a very practical experience.

Melbourne Centre news Andrew King

Chair, Melbourne Regional Centre The Melbourne Centre ran the second of its gliding events in September with very positive feedback from attendees.

We will likely run this event again next year. We also had a successful and well-attended drought workshop at the Bureau. Summaries of both of these events are in this issue of BAMOS (see pages 138–139 and 140 respectively).

We are currently advertising our next main event, the Priestley Cup and AGM, to be held in December, as well as making plans for a public lecture early next year.

We have also started to advertise AMOS calendars and already have orders for 177 calendars placed.

Education & Outreach Committee Laura O’Brien

Melbourne Regional Centre Earlier this year, Laura O’Brien and Hamish Ramsay went to Canterbury Primary School to talk to the prep students about the weather.

The class had originally been visited by Mike Larkan from Channel 10, who did a live forecast from their classroom, so AMOS sent them a book on Australian weather to encourage them.

The students do a weather forecast in class every day and wanted to know more about how the forecasts are made.

Left: Laura and Hamish talk to prep students about the weather. Image: supplied by Laura O’Brien.

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News from the Centres

Gliding and meteorology—AMOS takes to the air

Matt Woodhouse CSIRO

Andrea Dittus and Matt Woodhouse prepare to launch. Image: Sonya Fiddes.

The AMOS Melbourne Centre recently organised two visits to Benalla airfield to fly with the Gliding Club of Victoria (GCV). On 15 August and 5 September, despite unappealing weather in Melbourne, members were greeted with fine blue skies on arrival in Benalla.

GCV Vice President Tim Shirley welcomed AMOS members and then proceeded to give an overview of soaring meteorology describing how glider pilots use thermals to stay in the air. By searching for and circling in thermals, glider pilots gain height—which they can use to look for and fly to the next thermal and so travel very large distances. During the long summer days, pilots from Benalla regularly achieve distances in excess of 1,000 km, with average speeds of over 100 km/h! Conditions at Benalla are so good in fact, that the Australian National Championships will be hosted there in January 2016, followed by the World Championships the following year.

Tim’s presentation was very well received and prompted many astute questions.

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With the conclusion of Tim’s presentation, our intrepid AMOS aviators moved out to the launch point where sunglasses were donned, sunscreen applied, and picnic blankets spread. The sleek, white two-seat gliders were waiting, and after being introduced to the glider and instructor, each member was strapped in and prepared for take-off. The launches were by aerotow, a light powered aircraft towing the glider to 3,000 ft above ground. The GCV instructors flew the gliders from the rear seat, giving unobstructed views from the snow-capped Australian Alps to the south and across the Murray River into NSW. After releasing the rope at 3,000 ft, members were given the chance to take control of the glider. Several members were lucky enough to find thermals to extend their flights, no mean feat in mid-winter. And a couple of adrenalineseekers were even treated to some aerobatics and highspeed flying before landing back at the airfield!

Many thanks to the Gliding Club of Victoria for making the day happen and laying on perfect weather! The question is, when can we go again...?

News from the Centres

Top: Winton Raceway and Glenrowan under a thermic sky.

Right: Aerotow launch. Images: Sonya Fiddes.

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News from the Centres

Drought workshop report Louise Wilson

CSIRO The AMOS Melbourne Centre hosted the third in an annual series of themed half-day workshops on Tuesday 22 September at the Bureau of Meteorology. The focus of this meeting was drought and was well attended by about 40 people throughout the afternoon. This event saw talks from scientists from the universities, Bureau, CSIRO and the public service on the latest research and challenges around the observation & measurement, and the definition & communication of drought.

The first half of the workshop focused on the definition and measurement of drought in an Australian context. Dr. Ailie Gallant from Monash University gave an overview of drought indices and historical drought in Australia as well as outlining causes and drivers of drought. Dr. Rob Pipunic (Bureau & Melbourne University) described ground-based observations of soil moisture as well as recent advances in satellite remote sensing and data assimilation. The Bureau’s operational Australian Water Resource Assessments (AWRA) Modelling System, an integrated hydrological simulation system using data assimilated from multiple sources, was described in further detail by Dr. Adam Smith (Bureau) including an exciting sneak peek of the planned operational website due to be launched in November 2015.

An afternoon tea followed a vibrant question and discussion session before the late-afternoon session began.

Dr. Blair Trewin (Bureau) spoke on the evolution of the Millennium Drought and its underlying causes. Graeme Anderson (Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, formally Department of Primary Industries) gave a comprehensive overview of the needs of agribusiness and farmers and outlined the communication challenges and tools developed by his group, in partnership with the Bureau, to meet these needs.

The Bureau’s current drought service, delivered as part of Climate Information Services, were described by Dr. Karl Braganza, including the results of recent stakeholder engagement and planned service improvements. The final talk of the day was presented by Dr. Louise Wilson on behalf of Dr. Dewi Kirono (CSIRO) on future projections of Australian drought under different emissions scenarios.

The workshop concluded with wine and cheese and informal discussion. Special thanks to Paul Gregory, Sonya Fiddes and Louise Wilson for organising the event.

The link to the recording can be found at: https://youtu.be/ LBdgyXe3Ero

The 2015 Priestley Cup The Priestley Cup is an annual round robin soccer tournament held between teams from the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, University of Melbourne and Monash University. Contact your team captain to be part of the action! Players and spectators are welcome.

The AGM will be held directly after the match, where the 2016 AMOS Melbourne committee will be nominated.

Pizza and drinks are provided.

AGM: 6:30 p.m.

LOCATION: School of Earth Science Balcony, Melbourne University COST: Free for AMOS members. Non-members $5 RSVP: http://goo.gl/forms/ra6FN7r9AI, or talk to your team captain.

2016 Captains:

DATE: Thursday 3 December

Kane Stone (University of Melbourne)

PRIESTLEY CUP: 3:30–6:00 p.m. (kick off at 3:45 p.m.)

Dietmar Dommenget (Monash University)

LOCATION: Synthetic hockey pitch, University Sport (Tin Alley, Parkville)

Peter Van Rensch (CSIRO)

Melbourne

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 139

Meelis Zidikheri (Bureau of Meteorology)

News from the Centres

Effects of the EAC on Tasmania

Andrew Klekociuk and Andrew Marshall Hobart Regional Centre

Left to right: Mike Pook, Gretta Pecl, Neil Holbrook and Scott Ling during the panel discussion at the Hobart event. Image: supplied by authors.

AMOS—AMSA Public Lecture Summary On the evening of 18 August, the Hobart Centres of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) and the Australian Marine Sciences Association (AMSA) hosted a public event at the University of Tasmania’s Stanley Burbury Theatre examining the physical behavior and ecosystem implications of changes in the East Australian Current (EAC). Titled Feeling the Effects of the East Australian Current on Tasmania, the event featured 15 minute talks by speakers Associate Professor Neil Holbrook (University of Tasmania and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science), Associate Professor Gretta Pecl (University of Tasmania) and Dr. Mike Pook (CSIRO), followed by a 40-minute panel question-and-answer session with the audience. Dr. Scott Ling (University of Tasmania) facilitated as Master of Ceremonies and provided input for the panel discussion.

The event was repeated the following night (19 August) at the University of Tasmania’s Sir Raymond Ferrall Centre in Launceston.

Prof. Holbrook set the scene by describing the oceanographic features of the EAC. Pioneering work by CSIRO from the 1960s described the general transport regimes associated with the EAC, which involves a broad flow southward along the continental shelf to approximately 30˚S, which transitions into eddies Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 140

further south and a branch that heads eastward towards New Zealand. In the mid-1980s, work by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography produced large-scale maps of ocean circulation and contextualised the EAC as part of the broader South Pacific Gyre (SPG) circulation.

During the 1990s, analysis of long-term records showed that the south-west Tasman Sea is warming to significant depth. An intensification of the East Australian Current extension (largely composed of anti-cyclonic eddies), consistent with forcing from changes in the large-scale wind stress field across the mid-high latitude South Pacific Ocean, has been implicated as a key driver of the warming.

Recent modelling suggests that further changes in the SPG will result in increased southward extension of long-lived warm-core (anti-cyclonic) eddies along the Tasmanian east coast, and this will be accompanied by an increase in sea surface temperature extremes south and west of the Tasman Sea warming.

Prof. Pecl provided a description of observed oceanic ecosystem changes that are linked to warming of the EAC in the Tasmanian region. Documented changes include southward expansion of sea urchins that have caused loss of kelp forests, the southward migration of a significant portion of intertidal species and seaweeds, and major distributional changes in over 45 coastal fish species. Many of these changes have been directly witnessed by Scott Ling, who has undertaken more than 1,700 dives to research

News from the Centres

changes in urchin populations off eastern Tasmania.

Prof. Pecl highlighted that while general southward movements in species have been seen, the overall picture is complicated as movements of some species are hard to detect and not all species are capable of moving and adapting to environmental change. In order to obtain a clearer picture of change in the marine environment, Prof.

Pecl has been central in the development of the Range Extension Database and Mapping (‘Redmap’; http://www. redmap.org.au) project, which is hosted by the University of Tasmania and involves the identification and location of “out of range” species through public participation.

Recent results from the project have shown that some widely distributed species are shifting faster in response to change along the Australian east coast, and that change is greatest in the lower trophic levels. Overall, the data gathered by Redmap are proving valuable for wider efforts in modelling, and for informing decisions about conservation and management.

Dr. Pook went on to describe the implications of changes in the EAC to climate and weather patterns in the Tasmanian region. While the Tasmanian west coast has the highest annual rainfall accumulation, as a result of its orographic placement in the general westerly flow, regions of the north-east experience the highest daily rainfall amounts. Extreme rainfall events in the Tasmanian north­ east are invariably associated with cut-off lows, when low pressure systems become stationary between blocking highs to the east and west of the state. Modelling, such as that conducted for the Climate Futures for Tasmania project, indicates that future warming of the EAC may

lead to more intense cut-off lows to the east of Tasmania, and provide higher rainfall intensity during these events.

Overall, the understanding of these extreme events is informing planning in the agricultural, fisheries and business sectors.

Following the talks, there was strong engagement with the audience, which consisted of 185 people in Hobart and 50 people in Launceston, including researchers, teachers, academics, and those outside academia with broad interest in weather, climate and oceanography.

Generous support for the event was provided by the University of Tasmania, National Science Week, and the Australian Institute of Physics. Partner organisations also included Inspiring Australia, the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, CSIRO, and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

The Hobart event was recorded live and is available for playback viewing at http://livestream.com/ UniversityofTasmania/events/4258309 Further reading: Jaci Brown, ‘Things warm up as the East Australian Current heads south’, The Conversation, 21 November 2014. https://theconversation.com/things-warm-up-as-the­ east-australian-current-heads-south-31889 Erik van Sebille, Eric Oliver and Jaci Brown, ‘Can you surf the East Australian Current, Finding Nemo-style?’, The Conversation, 6 June 2014. https://theconversation.com/ can-you-surf-the-east-australian-current-finding-nemo­ style-27392

Climate change driving species redistribution

Craig Macaulay

Hobart Regional Centre International researchers will present the latest assessment of how climate change is driving a redistribution of Earth’s species when they meet in Hobart next February.

The conference, Species on the Move, is being held for the first time to evaluate shifts occurring throughout the worlds lands and oceans, but particularly in recognised global hotspots such as Australia’s south-east and south west waters.

The co-coordinator, Associate Professor Gretta Pecl, is from the University of Tasmania’s Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies. She said between 25–85% of marine and terrestrial species in any given area have been recorded as having moved to new environments with climate change considered to be the primary factor in the redistribution.

The conference follows four themes: detection, impacts, prediction and adaptation.

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“While the mechanisms that underpin redistribution are poorly understood, the overwhelming nature of range shifts—from poles to the equator and ocean depths to mountains tops—offers a rare opportunity to advance scientific theory of biogeography, evolutionary ecology and global change,” Prof. Pecl said.

“Essentially, this is an evolving field of science tracking animals, birds, fish and mammals to identify how and where species will move with climate change, the impact of a change in our environment, and in the face of such changes how to sustainably manage natural resources such as commercial fish populations,” she said.

Up to 250 scientists are expected to attend the conference, at Hobart’s Grand Chancellor, from February 6–9, and hosted by the University of Tasmania.

More information: http://www.speciesonthemove.com/

First Circular

IX International Congress on the History of Oceanography Discovery of changes in the oceans of the World Tuesday 12th - Friday 15th April 2016 Adelaide, Australia

Venue:

Flinders at Tonsley

Address: Tonsley Campus of Flinders University 1284 South Road, Clovelly Park 5042 South Australia, Australia [ flinders.edu.au/tonsley ]

International congresses on the history of oceanography under the auspices of the International Commission of the History of Oceanography have been held over the years in Monaco (1966), Edinburgh (1972), Woods Hole (1980), Hamburg (1987), Scripps (1993), Qingdao (1999), Kaliningrad (2003) and Naples (2008). The ninth meeting (ICHO IX) is the first Congress to be held in the southern hemisphere, and will occur during the fiftieth year celebrations of the founding of Flinders University, which was the first institution in Australia to offer tertiary studies in oceanography.

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1 Â Â

CALL FOR PAPERS

Papers are invited over the following groups of subjects:

• • • • • • •

Observational oceanography International co-operations Interdisciplinary approaches Economic aspects of oceanography Institutional heritage Archival resources Mathematical simulation

Oral and poster presentations are welcome. It is proposed to run the Congress as a single stream in the main lecture theatre, with the inclusion of about 25 half-hour contributed oral presentations including discussions, together with two poster sessions in the adjacent facilities. The deliberations of ICHO IX will be reported in a proceedings volume. An attendance of between fifty and one hundred delegates is anticipated. The Congress will be hosted by the School of the Environment of Flinders University.

ORGANIZATION Contacts International: Walter Lenz1 email: walter.lenz@dg-­‐meeresforschung.de Local: John Bye email: jbye@unimelb.edu.au Jochen Kaempf email: jochen.kaempf@flinders.edu.au Ian Jones email: ian.s.f.jones@hotmail.com 1

President of the International Commission of the History of Oceanography

Abstract An abstract of about 250 words for either oral or poster presentation should be sent to John Bye (Chair) before December 31st 2015, and acceptances will be provided no later than January 31st 2016.

Registration The registration for ICHO IX will open on 1st February 2016. Details including online payment options will be announced at the congress Webpage to be hosted at http://www.flinders.edu.au/science_engineering/environment/activities/. The anticipated Registration fees are: •

Participant: AU$ 440

•

Student participant: AU$ 55

•

Accompanying person AU$ 110

Registration includes the ICHO IX Dinner on the evening of Thursday April 14th, and for Participants, a Congress handbook and welcome late afternoon refreshment on Tuesday April 12th , and the electronic copy of the volume based on the Proceedings.

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2

Publication Authors are invited to submit a manuscript of their contributed oral or poster presentation as a pdf-file to Ian Jones (Secretary) before April 30th 2016 for inclusion in a volume based on the Ninth Congress. Submission prior to the Congress will enable interaction with authors to occur. Manuscripts will be peer reviewed, and may be revised and copy edited. If you cannot attend the Congress, your manuscript is also welcome, and may be presented in absentia. This is a rare opportunity to contribute to a volume devoted to the history of oceanography, which ANU Press have agreed to publish, subject to review by their reader. ANU Press will sell both the electronic and hard bound version of the book.

AMBIENCE Adelaide usually experiences pleasant autumn weather in the second half of April, and the waters of Gulf St Vincent on which it is situated are at their warmest of about 22oC. The ICHO IX venue is a short walking distance from Tonsley railway station for access to the city hotels and restaurants. Evening return to the city can also be made by bus. The Tonsley campus is also about one-half hour by car from Adelaide Airport.

The Southern Ocean lies about 80 km to the south of the venue, and during the course of the Congress some bracing oceanic or warm desert wind events may be experienced.

Climate model predictions for Australia indicate that the central southern coast is likely to be the most liveable region under global warming.

Information on cover photos (see front page).

Left panel: Stephen Rintoul (CSIRO Marine Research) holding an ARGO float in 2002.

Central panel: Photographs of Nansen bottles.

Right panel: Roger Revelle attaching a Nansen bottle to lowering cable.

Photography by E.S. Barr

(1950)

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 144

3

The mouth of the Onkaparinga River (Ngangkiparri) located ~32 km south of Adelaide’s city centre.

Photography by Bill Robinson, January 2009.

Conference Report

‘Our Common Future under Climate Change’ Conference

(CFCC) report Paris, 6-11 July 2015 Tom Beer

Background

Personal Highlights

This conference was organised by an international partnership of Future Earth, ICSU and UNESCO (along with numerous French organisations) to be the preparatory science conference before the COP21 meeting in Paris in December 2015. But, you may ask, surely the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) meetings are the preparatory science meetings. Indeed, but whereas IPCC works under a “science for policy” regime, CFCC appeared to have a more overtly political agenda designed to influence COP21 into producing agreements (unlike Copenhagen).

A new look at Resilience

The conference had strong support from the French Government—the French President was scheduled to open the conference but pulled out at the last minute because of the currency crisis in Greece—and French institutions. So much so that I was told that the University of Pierre and Marie Curie (UPMC) insisted on hosting sessions. This meant that half of the conference was at the eastern end of Paris and the other half was at the western end of Paris. Twenty minutes by metro between the two locations!

The four days of the conference were organised as: •

Day 1: State of Knowledge on Climate Change

•

Day 2: Landscapes of Our Common Future

•

Day 3: Responding to Climate Change Challenges

•

Day 4: Collective Action & Transformative Solutions

I attended this conference in Paris because it almost directly followed on from the end of the IUGG General Assembly in Prague (a weekend intervened) and I felt that in my role as a member of the ICSU Committee of Scientific Planning and Review I should attend this ICSU organised conference, and, in my role as Chair of the IUGG Commission on Climatic and Environmental Change, I should attend to foster further interactions with key players in Future Earth.

My role was to display a poster about the Weather, Climate and Food Security program run by the IUGG Commission on Climatic and Environmental Change.

The conference published a day-by-day electronic newsletter of activities. I have reproduced the salient bits in the Appendix.

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Following the Plenary speeches on Day 2 there was a plenary panel discussion titled Contours of a Resilient Global Future with: J. Rockström (Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden), L. Fernández Carril (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico), A. Gavilano (Environmental Policy Analysis, Bern, Switzerland).

This was memorable because Dr. Carril took issue with the use of the word resilience as being a good thing. He claimed that we do not want to be resilient; we want to make sure that we have been adequately prepared that we do not need to be resilient. Resilience is defeatism.

Rockström, the head of a resilience institute, defended his position by claiming that he agreed with Carril that mitigation was needed—but if events have gone too far for mitigation then adaptation is needed and that is what resilience is all about.

Curiously enough, on the plane home I read a book “The Beginning of Infinity” by David Deutsch FRS, Professor of Physics at Oxford University who makes a similar point in Chapter 17 in relation to “sustainability”. Deutsch argues against a sustainable world as being one that is static and lacks innovation. He argues for unsustainability as being needed to keep us innovative and able to provide new solutions.

Boycotts for Climate Damian Carrington, Head of Environment at The Guardian newspaper, described the paper’s #keepitintheground campaign to divest financial support from fossil fuel companies. He called it a campaign “rooted in the reality that there’s far more carbon locked in the ground than we can safely burn”. This was followed by a panel discussion with New York Times journalist Andrew Revkin and Dagmar Dehmer of German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel on the rights and wrongs of journalism as advocacy.

Revkin said that US journalists seek to present both sides of an argument, and Dehmer said that such a divestment campaign violates every ethical code of German journalism. A lively Q&A session with the audience followed that discussed the roles and responsibilities of both journalists and scientists when communicating about climate change.

Conference Report

Journalists discussing the ethics of the Guardian’s divestment campaign. Image: Tom Beer.

What I took away from this, and interpolated into a discussion at the World Congress on Risk in Singapore two weeks later, was that the approach to climate change communication differs according to the nationality of the communicator.

Appendix—Official Summary of Each Day’s Events Day 1 Our Common Future Under Climate Change kicked off to a packed auditorium for the opening plenary.

French Research and Education Minister Najat VallaudBelkacem issued a stark warning, saying that “unless we have widespread climate action, we will be the generation that knew what had to be done, but didn’t do it.” Segolène Royal, French Minister for the Environment, Energy and Sustainable Development, echoed the same message, calling on scientists to speak with a clear voice in the runup to the Paris climate change negotiations in December.

“We have won the battle of ideas, now we must win the battle for action,” she said. She also reminded scientists that while science has a duty to provide proof and evidence, “to be heard in the preparations for the summit in Paris as you deserve, your voices must not be too tangled up in precautions.”

There are transcripts available of WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud’s speech and the speech he delivered on behalf of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon.

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Many of the presentations can be found on the conference Slideshare page. http://www.slideshare.net/CFCC15 Day 2 In the first plenary, Karen O’Brien of the University of Oslo recognized the need for adaptation, while acknowledging that there are some risks under higher warming that we cannot manage. She also pointed out that addressing climate change is not only a technical problem, but forces us to ask what risks we can accept or tolerate, which is a question of beliefs and values. Paul Leadley of the Université de Paris-Sud argued that our common future should recognize the value of the many species with whom we shared the planet, whose options under climate change are limited to “move, adapt, or die.”

Day 3 The conference turned towards a focus on responding to the challenges of climate change. Many speakers highlighted the urgency of reducing emissions to lessen the risks of climate change, and in many cases pointed out win-win solutions to do so. In daringly PowerPoint-free reflections, Saleemul Huq noted that adaptation is not just dealing with risks, but taking opportunities to be better off and make transformational change. He also cautioned that it’s very doubtful that adaptation can be a solution in a +3 or +4°Cworld, sharpening the need for mitigation.

Several speakers highlighted the need to articulate an attractive vision of a low-carbon future. Ken Caldeira encouraged attendees to imagine the world we would like to create, with healthy, happy, prosperous people. In a parallel session, moderator Jeffrey Hardy echoed this need,

Conference Report

saying, “I want to see the aspirational sense of wanting to live in a low-carbon future. If you love technology, it’s smart and data-heavy; if you love your community, it’s a better place to live. There’s clean air for everyone. Don’t we want to live there anyway, even if climate change didn’t exist?”

In the plenary, Fatih Birol noted that not only visions, but specific targets will be critical to send the signal for emitters like the energy sector to meet ambitious goals, including an emissions peak in 2020. In Thursday’s press briefing, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz shared an example of ambitious goals spurring change much faster than expected: “When we wrote about zero-energy buildings less than a decade ago, most researchers didn’t think it was possible. Today it’s in European law. The law came out before the scientific community was convinced it was feasible. The regulations pushed the industry to innovate, and it’s having a very significant impact. Really, a miracle happened.”

Day 4 In Friday’s morning plenary, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research sounded a clarion call that “the age of carbon is over.”

He warned that “it is a very bad idea to go beyond two degrees” and suggested: “Let’s take this as the reference line, what are we going to do about it?” He said that if there is any chance of avoiding dangerous climate change,

an “induced implosion of the carbon economy” is needed, adding that the responsibility for financing the transition cannot lie with the poor: “it is not the poor who will pay for this transition, that is ludicrous.” He said that if we are willing to invest in a long-term future for our children in the form of their education, we should also invest in the climate those children will live in.

In the closing plenary, Scientific Committee Chair Chris Field summed up the conference: “We are moving to a post-carbon era, where climate change mitigation and adaptation are combined with other goals to build a sustainable future,” noting the deep commitment of scientists to be part of the solution. He also presented the conference Outcome Statement, which emphasized that, for a two in three probability holding warming to 2°C or less, we have a remaining carbon budget of about 20 years’ worth of current emissions. To achieve a stable climate, emissions eventually must go to zero. Conference attendees are invited to make use of the statement in their communications.

Field also emphasized that science has an essential role in highlighting connections between objective observations of the Earth’s state and the human questions raised by climate change: “how we think about the interests of the poor versus the rich, the future versus the present, and nature versus economies.”

Article

Increased media interest in climate change

Neville Nicholls Monash University

Climate scientists are sometimes disheartened by the low level of knowledge of, and interest in, climate change displayed by politicians and some sections of the media.

But there is evidence that the message about climate change is getting out. One part of this evidence is the increasing frequency of media articles about climate change and global warming.

The website Chronicle (chronicle.nytlabs.com) allows us to chart how the frequency of articles published in the New York Times that mention specific words or terms has changed over the years. Figure 1 shows the annual frequency of articles published in the New York Times that mention “global warming” and “climate change”. The figure shows that the frequency of articles mentioning either “climate change” or “global warming” has risen over time, since the early 1970s. Since about 2008 “climate change” has become the more frequently used of the two

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 147

terms, as the frequency of articles using “global warming” has declined.

Yet, some articles might only have used the term “climate change”, while some may have only used “global warming” and others may have used both terms. There is no simple way to determine the frequency of articles mentioning “climate change” and/or “global warming”—this frequency would be a clearer indication of New York Times interest in the topic of climate change. But we can use the frequencies shown in Figure 1 to estimate upper and lower bounds for the frequency of such articles. The upper limit each year (the maximum frequency) is the sum of the frequency of articles using either “climate change” or “global warming” (it is, of course, possible that an article could be written about climate change without using either of the terms “global warming” or “climate change”, but this seems unlikely). For this “maximum” estimate to be correct would

Article

Figure 1. Frequency of New York Times articles using “climate change” or “global warming”. 2015 figure calculated using data up to 7 September 2015. Data from chronicle. nytlabs.com.

Figure 2. Maximum and minimum estimates of frequency of New York Times articles using either “climate change” or “global warming” or both terms. Other details as in Figure 1

imply that no article using the term “global warming” also used “climate change”, and vice versa. The lower limit (the minimum frequency) is the larger of the two frequencies in Figure 1 in each year (this would imply that all articles that mentioned “climate change” also mention “global warming”, and vice versa). Figure 2 displays how these maximum and minimum estimates of the frequency of articles on climate change have varied over the years. The frequency of articles each year mentioning either “climate change” or “global warming” (or using both terms in one article) must lie between these maximum and minimum estimates.

New York Times interest in climate change peaked in 2007–2009 then declined somewhat before rebounding over the last two years, possibly reaching its maximum in 2015. Figures 1 and 2 indicate that over the past decade about 1.5% of all New York Times articles have mentioned climate change or global warming. This may seem quite a low frequency, until it is compared with the frequency of articles mentioning “terrorism” (1.73% of all articles in 2015), “Syria” (2.27%), “refugee” (0.69%), “Ebola” (0.49%),

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“flu” (0.29%), or “malaria” (0.18%). So, in the context of other topics of considerable public, media and political interest, the interest in climate change in the New York Times has been substantial. The evidence is that climate scientists have been successful in raising media interest in climate change, and that this interest is continuing to grow.

The direct influence of climate scientists in fostering media interest is evident in the two figures. The early assessment reports of the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990 and 1995 were associated with quite small increases in media interest. But subsequent IPCC assessments (2001, 2007, 2013/14) have seen substantial jumps in the number of media articles on climate change.

The major meetings of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in 1997 (Kyoto) and 2009 (Copenhagen) have also been associated with increased media interest, as has the lead up this year to the Paris UNFCCC meeting in December. So it seems that the pain and time spent preparing IPCC assessments, or in UNFCCC meetings, have been worthwhile after all.

Article

Solving the PETM ocean acidification mystery

Kaitlin Alexander

Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, 55 million years ago, left behind puzzling evidence of deep ocean acidification.

New climate model research at UNSW may finally shed light on this event, as lead author Kaitlin Alexander explains.

In order to find an example of previous climate change comparable to what we’re experiencing today, you have to go back 55 million years. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was an episode of global warming and ocean acidification caused by increasing greenhouse gases.

In May of this year, my co-authors Katrin Meissner, Tim Bralower and I published a paper in Nature Geoscience which sheds new light on a long-standing mystery about ocean acidification during the PETM. The PETM occurred after the extinction of dinosaurs, but before the emergence of humans. Ocean sediments laid down during this event show that the average global temperature increased by around 5°C over a few thousand years (Zeebe et. al., 2009). We can expect a similar amount of warming over the next few hundred years if we continue burning fossil fuels at our current rate.

It’s also clear from the sediment record that this warming was driven by a large release of carbon into the atmosphere.

Nobody is sure where this carbon came from, but possible explanations include peat burning or methane released from the seafloor.

It’s difficult to figure out exactly how much atmospheric CO2 increased during the PETM, because there were no ice sheets present to record its concentration. Instead, we can measure the severity of ocean acidification based on calcium carbonate content in ocean sediments, and calculate how much extra CO2 would be needed to explain that ocean acidification.

The problem is that ocean acidification was not uniform during the PETM. It was more severe in the Atlantic than it was in the Southern Ocean and the Pacific, and until now nobody has known why. The different regions give two different answers as to how much CO2 increased, and until now we haven’t known which answer to trust.

Using simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, my co-authors and I have identified a mechanism which may explain this discrepancy. In our simulations, ocean acidification during the PETM was more severe in the Atlantic because CO2 was not the only contributing factor. It was exacerbated by changes in ocean circulation due to warming, which caused a parcel of corrosive water to spread through the Atlantic, dissolving sediments in its path.

At 55 million years ago, global bathymetry was quite different from today. In particular, there was a ridge on Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 149

the seafloor between the North and South Atlantic, near the equator. This ridge completely isolated the deep North Atlantic from other oceans, like a giant bathtub on the ocean floor. In our simulations this “bathtub” is filled with corrosive water, which has low alkalinity and so can easily dissolve calcium carbonate. This corrosive water originated in the Arctic Ocean, and was able to sink to the bottom of the Atlantic by mixing with dense salty water from the Tethys Ocean (the precursor to today’s Mediterranean, Black, and Caspian Seas).

In our simulations, this corrosive bottom water gradually warmed in response to the PETM. As it warmed it became less dense, until the vertical density gradient was sufficient for deep water formation: the denser surface water sank and pushed the corrosive bottom water up and over the ridge. This corrosive water spread southward through the Atlantic, eastward through the Southern Ocean, and into the Pacific, dissolving sediments as it went (Figure 3a of the original paper). It became diluted as it travelled and so the most severe effects were felt in the South Atlantic. This pattern agrees with sediment records which show close to 100% dissolution of calcium carbonate in the South Atlantic.

The PETM is often considered an analogue to modern climate change, since the carbon release which caused the PETM was probably similar in magnitude to that of present-day fossil fuel reservoirs (Meissner et al., 2014; Swart and Weaver, 2012), although it was released about ten times more slowly. However, the unusual conditions we simulate in the North Atlantic during the PETM—an isolated deep basin filled with very corrosive water, in a region susceptible to deep water formation—have no analogue in the modern ocean. Therefore, we have no reason to believe that similar releases of corrosive water onset of convection 4 kyr after carbon release due to deep ocean warming

corrosive surface water saline surface water

corrosive bottom water equatorial sill

Figure 3a: Illustration of the transport of corrosive water we simulate following the PETM. Surface currents are shown in yellow, and deep currents in purple.

Article

in the deep ocean will occur in the near future due to present-day climate change. However, this mechanism illustrates the coupled nonlinearity of the climate system, and its potential for sudden transitions.

References: The original paper is: Alexander, K., Meissner, K.J., and Bralower, T.J., 2015, Sudden spreading of corrosive bottom water during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Nature Geoscience, 8, 458-461.

Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum warming, Nature Geoscience, 2, 576–580.

Meissner, K.J., et al., 2014, The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: How much carbon is enough?, Paleoceanography, 29, 946–963.

Swart, N.C. and Weaver, A.J., 2012, The Alberta oil sands and climate, Nature Climate Change, 2, 134–136.

Zeebe, R. E., Zachos, J. C., and Dickens, G. R., 2009, Carbon dioxide forcing alone insufficient to explain

The Research Corner with Damien Irving

Managing your data If you’re working on a project that involves collecting or generating novel data that would be of interest to the wider research community (e.g. you might be participating in a scientific ocean voyage or a model intercomparison project), then it’s likely that one of the first things you did was develop a data management plan. Many funding agencies actually formally require this, and such plans usually involve outlining your practices for collecting/ generating, organising, backing up, and storing your data.

What many people don’t realise is that even if you aren’t collecting or generating your own data (e.g. you might simply be downloading a reanalysis dataset), you should still start your project by developing a data management plan. That plan obviously doesn’t need to consider everything a full-blown data collection/generation project does (e.g. you don’t need to think about archiving the data at a site like Figshare), but there are a few key things all data analysis projects need to consider, regardless of whether they produced the original dataset or not.

1. Data Reference Syntax The first thing to define is your Data Reference Syntax (DRS)—a convention for naming your files. As an example, let’s look at a file from the data archive managed

by Australia’s Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS):

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 150

.../thredds/dodsC/IMOS/eMII/demos/ACORN/ monthly_gridded_1h-avg-current-map_non-QC/ TURQ/2012/IMOS_ACORN_V_20121001T000000Z_TURQ_ FV00_monthly-1-hour-avg_END-20121029T180000Z_C20121030T160000Z.nc

That’s a lot of information to take in, so let’s focus on the structure of the file directory first: .../thredds/dodsC/<project>/<organisation>/ <collection>/<facility>/<data-type>/<sitecode>/<year>/

From this we can deduce, even without inspecting the contents of the file, that we have data from the IMOS project that is run by the eMarine Information Infrastructure (eMII). It was collected in 2012 at the Turquoise Coast, Western Australia (TURQ) site of the Australian Coastal Ocean Radar Network (ACORN), which is a network of high frequency radars that measure the ocean surface current. The data type has a sub-DRS of its own, which tells us that the data represents the 1-hourly average surface current for a single month (October 2012), and that it is archived on a regularly spaced grid and has not been quality controlled. The file is located in the “demos” directory, as it has been generated for the purpose of providing an example for users at the very helpful Australian Ocean Data Network user code library1.

1

https://github.com/aodn/imos-user-code-library

The Research Corner with Damien Irving

Just in case that file ever gets separated from this informative directory structure, much of the information is repeated in the file name itself, along with some more detailed information about the start and end time of the data, and the last time the file was modified: <project>_<facility>_V_<time-start>_<sitecode>_FV00_<data-type>_<time-end>_<modified>.nc

In the first instance this level of detail seems like a bit of overkill, but consider the scope of the IMOS data archive. It is the final resting place for data collected by the entire national array of oceanographic observing equipment in Australia, which monitors the open oceans and coastal marine environment covering physical, chemical and biological variables. Since the data are so well labelled, locating all monthly timescale ACORN data from the Turquoise Coast and Rottnest Shelf sites (which represents hundreds of files) would be as simple as typing the following at the command line: $ ls */ACORN/monthly_*/{TURQ,ROT}/*/*.nc

While it’s unlikely that your research will ever involve cataloging data from such a large observational network, it’s still a very good idea to develop your own personal DRS for the data you do have. This often involves investing some time at the beginning of a project to think carefully about the design of your directory and file name structures, as these can be very hard to change later on. The combination of bash shell wildcards and a well-planned DRS is one of the easiest ways to make your research more efficient and reliable.

2. Data provenance When defining my own DRS, I usually add some extra fields to cater for the intermediary files that typically get created throughout the data analysis process. For instance, I add a field to indicate the temporal aspects of the data (e.g. to indicate if the data are an anomaly relative to some base period) and another for the spatial aspects (e.g. to indicate whether the data have been re-gridded). While keeping track of this information via the DRS is a nice thing to do (it definitely helps with bash wildcards and visual identification of files), more detailed information needs to be recorded for the data to be truly reproducible. A good approach to recording such information is the procedure followed by the widely used Climate Data Operators (CDO) and NetCDF Operators (NCO). Whenever an NCO or CDO utility is executed at the command line, a time stamp followed by a copy of the command line entry is automatically appended to the global attributes of the output netCDF file, thus maintaining a complete history of the data processing steps. Here’s an example global attribute entry from a CDO command I ran just the other day:

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 151

Wed Oct 14 09:35:49 2015: cdo runmean,30 va_ ERAInterim_500hPa_1993-daily_native.nc va_ ERAInterim_500hPa_1993-030day-runmean_native.nc

You might be thinking, “this is all well and good, but what about data processing steps that don’t use NCO, CDO or even netCDF files?” It turns out that if you write a script (e.g. in Python, R or whatever language you’re using) that can be executed from the command line, then it only takes an extra few lines of code to parse the associated command line entry and append that information to the global attributes of a netCDF file (or a corresponding metadata text file if dealing with file formats that don’t carry their metadata with them). To learn how to do this using Python, check out the Software Carpentry lesson on Data Management in the Ocean, Weather and Climate Sciences2.

3. Backup Once you’ve defined your DRS and implemented the NCO/CDO approach to data provenance, the final thing to think about is backing up your data. This is something I discussed in detail in the August 2014 issue of BAMOS, but the crux of the story is that if your starting point files (i.e. the data files required at the very first step of your data processing) can be easily downloaded (e.g. reanalysis or CMIP5 data), then you probably don’t need your local copy backed up. All of your code should be version controlled and backed up via an external hosting service like GitHub or Bitbucket, so you can simply re-download the data and re-run your analysis scripts if disaster strikes.

If you generated your starting point files from scratch on the other hand (e.g. you collected the data during a field experiment), then backup is absolutely critical and would be part of your data management plan.

A version of this article is available on my blog, which provides links to more information on many of the topics covered: http://drclimate.wordpress.com 2

http://damienirving.github.io/capstone-oceanography/

Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin

20 March 1978

The El Niño event of 1977–78 brought dry conditions in late 1977 and early 1978 to much of eastern Australia. The July to February period was the fifth-driest on record for Victoria and the ninth-driest for New South Wales, and dryness continued into the first half of March 1978.

A broad low-pressure system formed in the Coral Sea far to the north-east of Brisbane on the 17th, with a secondary low east of Bundaberg. These consolidated into a subtropical low east of the Gold Coast on the 18th. The low moved close to the coast on the 19th, before moving inland and south-west. By the 20th, it was centred near Dubbo, with an increasingly strong easterly flow between it and a high pressure system over Tasmania. The low gradually weakened over the next two days and moved first south­ west, then south-east into a trough over the far south-east of New South Wales on the 22nd. A new small low formed in the trough off the mid-north coast of New South Wales on the 24th, before the system was finally swept away by a strong cold front on the 26th.

Whilst the heaviest rains from east coast lows are normally quite localised, this event brought heavy rain to almost all of coastal New South Wales. Weekly totals exceeded 200 mm along almost the entire coast from the Gold Coast to the Victorian border, with 100+mm totals extending inland to the ranges.

Initially the heaviest falls were in the Gold Coast/Tweed region, with Murwillumbah receiving 321 mm on the 19th and a two-day total for 18–19 March of 509 mm at Springbrook. The strongest winds of the event also occurred during this period, including a gust of 131 km/ h at Nobbys Head in Newcastle.

Over the next two days, though, the focus of the heaviest rain moved to the area immediately west and south of

Sydney. The heaviest falls of all were near the Illawarra escarpment, with a three-day total of 884 mm (including 348 on the 20th) for 19–21 March at the St. Anthony’s site near Robertson, while Bowral had three successive threefigure daily totals on its way to a three-day fall of 415 mm.

The Blue Mountains also experienced very heavy rain with an all-time daily record of 285 mm at Katoomba. On the 21st, the heaviest rain moved to the coastal escarpment of the South Coast; Cottesloe, southeast of Nimmitabel, had 366 millimetres (the second-highest daily fall on record for the Southern Tablelands) and Badja 263 mm.

Canberra (where 92 mm was a March record at the time) was about the western limit of the heavy rain; most of inland New South Wales and Victoria got rain, but twoday totals for 20–21 March west of the ranges were mostly in the 10–20 mm range with only locally higher falls.

Despite relatively dry catchments leading into the event, such heavy rains produced significant flooding in many coastal catchments, especially the Manning, Paterson, Hawkesbury/Nepean, Shoalhaven, Richmond, Tweed and Hastings. Six deaths occurred during the event, mostly in western Sydney, and many properties were inundated around Windsor, Maitland, Taree and Wingham (where the Manning River reached its second-highest level on record). With very strong inflows from both the Wingecarribee and Coxs Rivers, Warragamba Dam spilled, producing the highest flood since 1964 at Windsor (and one not matched since). The situation around Taree was exacerbated when 236 millimetres fell on the 25th from the secondary low, but these rains were fairly localised and had little impact outside that area.

AMENDMENT: The photograph accompanying Charts From the Past in the last issue was captioned incorrectly. The photograph was taken in August 1929, not September—Ed.

Synoptic chart for 0000 UTC (1000 AEST), 20 March 1978.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 152

Calendar

2015

February

November

8–11 AMOS/ARCCSS Melbourne

29 November–4 December Biannual MODSIM2015 congress of the Modelling and Simulations Society of Australia and New Zealand, Gold Coast, Australia.

12–15 IX International Congress on the History of Oceanography “Discovery of changes in the oceans of the World”, Adelaide, Australia

30 November–4 December International Symposium on the Indian Ocean - “Dynamics of the Indian Ocean: Perspective and Retrospective”, Goa, India

21–26 AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting, New Orleans, LA, USA

December 3–5, 3rd CLIVAR GSOP IQuOD and 1st SG-IQuOD workshop & 5th XBT Science Team workshop, Uni. Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

National

Conference

2016,

April 17–22 EGU 2016, Vienna International Center, Vienna, Austria

May

14–18 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA

23–27, 2016, The 48th International Liege colloquium on Ocean Dynamics “Submesoscale Processes: Mechanisms, implications and new frontiers”, Liege, Belgium

2016

July

January

31–5 August, 13th Annual Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, Beijing, China

10–14 Sixth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python, AMS Annual Meeting, New Orleans, USA

Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal

Articles — Vol. 65 No. 1, 2015

Bhend and Whetton. Evaluation of simulated recent climate change in Australia.

Moise et al. Evaluation of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models over the Australian region to inform confidence in projections.

Hope et al. Seasonal and regional signature of the projected southern Australian rainfall reduction.

McInnes et al. Information for Australian impact and adaptation planning in response to sea-level rise.

Regular features:

Grose et al. Comparison of various climate change projections of eastern Australian rainfall.

Pollock. Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (winter 2014): warm and dry in the southwest.

Grose et al. The subtropical ridge in CMIP5 models, and implications for projections of rainfall in southeast Australia.

Wu. Quarterly numerical weather prediction model performance summary—October to December 2014.

Dowdy et al. Rainfall in Australia’s eastern seaboard: a review of confidence in projections based on observations and physical processes.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 153

BAMOS Author Guidelines

For all submissions: The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (BAMOS) accepts short (<2500 words) contributions of original research work for peerreview and consideration in the “Science Articles” section.

Longer articles will be considered at the discretion of the Editor and Editor-in-Chief. Articles submitted to BAMOS should also be appropriate for the whole AMOS community (from weather enthusiasts to professional members) and should aim to be concise without using excessive scientific jargon.

Raymond, D.J., 1993. Chapter 2: Observational constraints on cumulus parameterizations. In: The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models, Meteorological Monographs, 24 (46), 17–28, American Meteorological Society, Boston, USA.

For the peer-reviewed “Science Articles” section, authors should follow these guidelines:

•

1. Articles should be submitted as a PDF or Word document (or similar) for peer-review and include all figures and tables either within the main text or consecutively at the end of the article.

2. Articles should have a line spacing of 1.5 or more using a font size of 12. Articles should preferably be written using Times New Roman or Arial.

3. Articles should be split into sections, with the heading for each section numbered consecutively and using a font size of 14. For example (these are title examples, headings are made at the authors’ discretion): 1. Introduction 2. Method 3. Results 4. Conclusions 4. An abstract is required and should not be more than 150 words in length.

5. Acknowledgements to be included after the final work section and before the references.

6. References should follow these example formats: •

Journal Articles:

Jung, T., Ferranti, L. and Tompkins, A.M., 2006, Response to the summer of 2003 Mediterranean SST anomalies over Europe and Africa, Journal of Climate, 19, 5439–5454.

•

Books:

Holton, J.R., 2004, An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. Academic Press, New York. 535 pp.

•

Book chapter:

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 154

•

Theses:

Trewin, B., 2001, Extreme temperature events in Australia.

PhD Thesis, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia.

Web sites:

Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2012, Bushfire history - Major bushfires in Victoria, www.dse. vic.gov.au/fire-and-other-emergencies/major-bushfires-in­ victoria/ 7. We recommend that the author(s) make five suggestions for referees to undertake the peer-review.

Also, we ask for a list of five potential referees whom the author does not want as reviewers, due to conflicts of interest, or past close association..

8. Once peer-review has been completed, a final version of the document should be sent to the editor either in Word format or as plain text. The document should also include figure and table captions and the references but no figures. Figure files should be sent separately (they may be in any format and the editor will confer with the author(s) on the resolution and formatting).

9. Galley-proofs will be sent to the author(s) for final checking before publication.

BAMOS also accepts a wide range of non-peer-reviewed work, for example news items, charts from the past, conference reports, book reviews, biographical articles and meet a member. AMOS members are therefore encouraged to submit articles that would be of general interest to the AMOS community without necessarily requiring peer review. File formats should follow those given above; a word or plain text document should be submitted (which includes any figure captions and tables) along with any figure files given separately.

All articles should be either posted or emailed to the editor with any questions on the formatting also directed to the editor (see the inside back cover of this issue for contact details).

2015 AMOS Council

Executive

President Vice-President Secretary Treasurer Past President

Todd Lane Mary Voice Damien Irving Angela Maharaj Blair Trewin

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Ordinary Members

Ailie Gallant Andrew Klekociuk Adam Morgan Neville Nicholls Andy Pitman Ian Watterson

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AMOS Executive Officer

Jeanette Dargaville GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001 (attn: AMOS admin officer) Phone 0404 471 143 E-mail: admin@amos.org.au

Sub-Committee Convenors Public Relations Education & Outreach Awards 2016 Conference 2017 Conference

Centre Chairs

ACT Adelaide Brisbane Darwin Hobart Melbourne NSW Perth

Vacant Vacant Mark Williams Ailie Gallant Clem Davis

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Bob Cechet Darren Ray Andrew Wiebe Ian Shepherd Andrew Marshall Andrew King Anthony Kiem Merv Lynch

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Representatives

AMOJ Science & Technology Australia

David Karoly

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Steven Phipps

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AMOS is represented on the relevant Australian Academy of Science committees.

2015 Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society ISSN 1035-6576

Editor

Melissa Lyne Email: melissa@amos.org.au

Science Editor

Willow Hallgren Email: whallgren@tpg.com.au

Editor-in-chief

Duncan Ackerley Email: duncan.ackerley@monash.edu

Associate Editor (oceanography) Christopher Bull

Assistant Editors

Regional Sub-editors Michael Hewson (Brisbane)

TBC (Melbourne)

TBC (NSW)

Bob Cechet (ACT)

Craig Macaulay (TAS)

Jenny Hopwood (WA)

Contributors Blair Trewin Damien Irving

Advertising Manager

Please contact the Executive Officer.

Publisher

AMOS,

GPO Box 1289,

Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia

Diana Greenslade, Blair Trewin and Linden Ashcroft.

Contributed articles, news, announcements and correspondence for the Bulletin should be sent to the editor no later than 10 December 2015. They will be reviewed and the galley proofs returned to the author if requested. An ASCII version of the text is required via e-mail or digital media to minimise typographic errors.

The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society is produced and distributed with the assistance of CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and the Bureau of Meteorology.

AMOS Website: www.amos.org.au

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