BAMOS DEC15/JAN16

AMOS

AustralianMeteorological & OceanographicSociety

AMOS/ARCCSS 2016 conference Climate extremes Reflections on AMOS Ocean expeditions What is SOOS?

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society Vol 28, No. 6, DECEMBER/JANUARY 2015/16 ISSN 1035-6576

Contents Editorial........................................................................................................................................................................ 155 President’s Column: Reflections on AMOS (last column as President)...................................................................................156 News............................................................................................................................................................................ 157 News from the Centres ............................................................................................................................................... 162 Articles......................................................................................................................................................................... 164 The Research Corner with Damien Irving: A call for reproducible research volunteers.......................................................174 Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin: 24 October 1914.....................................................................................................175

ISSN 1035-6576 Cover picture: Sunrise over the Bondi Icebergs pool in Sydney, at 6 a.m. on Wednesday 27 January 2016. The photographer says she swims here most mornings and is usually one of the first in the water when the pool opens at 6 a.m. “I love being at the beach before the sun rises—that’s when the colours are the most vibrant. Swimming at sunrise (followed by a quick coffee and a bit of morning banter with mates!) has become my morning ritual since I moved to Sydney from Vancouver five years ago. The ocean’s much warmer here than back home!”

Image: Kaitlin Moore, Instagram: @misskatemoore.

Unless specifically stated to the contrary, views expressed in the Bulletin are the personal views of the authors, and do not represent the views of the Society or any other organisation or institution to which the author(s) may be affiliated.

Editorial

Happy new(ish) year!

Since the last issue of BAMOS, I have spent quite a bit of time in Canberra. There were many celebrations in the nation’s capital during 2015, including the 30th birthday of the Shell Questacon Science Circus.

The program, a joint collaboration between Questacon, ANU and Shell, offers a yearly post-graduate scholarship to about 15 science graduates keen to learn about and experience science communication first-hand.

Throughout the year, the students of the program complete research projects whilst also being immersed in handson training in education, media, drama, cross-cultural situations, and much more.

Nevertheless, what the program is better known for amongst its applicants is the travel: its outreach component sees these students travel all across Australia, supporting the science curriculum in classes and through workshops with teachers, and then on the weekends entertaining the communities they visit with “science shows”.

to see him in action! Once the conference closes, he will hand over the reins.

This issue is chock-a-block: with the close of a climate extreme-ridden 2015, and a busy start to the new year, there is a lot in here to keep your mind busy.

I hope you all enjoyed a safe and pleasant break during the holiday period, and have a safe and pleasant year ahead.

Happy 2016 everyone.

Melissa Lyne Editor

I was lucky to experience “the circus” in 2004, but I’m not the only BAMOS editor to have done so… At the 30th birthday dinner, I caught up with one of our past editors, Simon Torok, (our other past Editor, ex-circus graduate Linden Ashcroft sent her regards from Spain). Simon got well into the celebrations and executed an amazing show about climate change to a packed theatre at Questacon.

Simon’s sidekick, Ruben Meerman (also known as The Surfing Scientist) accompanied him and tied into the show with a bit of science on weight-loss. Yes, climate change and weight loss—how are they related? You will have to ask Simon yourself at the upcoming annual conference!

He and Paul Holper have partnered up through their new venture, Scientell, which is now the first official conference media partner for AMOS. And on that note… with the holiday break now well behind us, AMOS is only a few days away from the annual conference in Melbourne. If you’re planning on attending, the full schedule can be found at: http://www.amos.org. au/AC2016/ This issue of BAMOS marks the final issue with Todd Lane as AMOS President. I’ve only known Todd for about a year, but in that time it’s been a privilege working with him through AMOS. His final column on the following pages reflects on his time as President and how the Society is moving forward. I’m sure his calm, soothing tones and friendly face will be well and truly missed by all, so make sure to get along to both the AGM and the conference

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The tea bag rocket: always a hit with the kids! Simon demonstrates hot air rising, with a little help from the Surfing Scientist, at Questacon. Image: Melissa Lyne.

President’s Column

Reflections on AMOS (last column as President) The national conference will be held in Melbourne very soon, during which we will hold the AMOS Annual General Meeting (AGM). So in preparation for the AGM, it is fitting to reflect on some of the 2015 AMOS achievements.

In the last year AMOS signed two important agreements with international societies: the American Meteorological Society (AMS) and the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS). The agreements promote collaboration between AMOS and these two societies and provide tangible benefits to AMOS members. The agreement with AMS provides discounted registration to their annual meeting and AMOS members are eligible to become AMS Affiliate Members at a subscription rate that is significantly lower than regular AMS membership. The agreement with AOGS entitles AMOS members to register for the AOGS annual meeting at AOGS member rates. This is particularly useful for people with busy schedules as the AOGS meeting is normally held about six months after the AMOS meeting.

AMOS will continue to explore new relations with related societies, both nationally and internationally.

The new AMOS webpage is now live, and is a fantastic upgrade on the previous one. This has been a significant effort to modernize our internal operations, interactions with members, and the outside world. It will also become a key tool for all of AMOS’s education and outreach activities. Thanks to Jeanette Dargaville who led this challenging task.

In July we held a highly successful national conference in Brisbane. The theme of ‘Communicating our Science’ really helped define the meeting and seemed to resonate with all of the delegates. Despite being unusually cold in Brisbane, it was a welcome relief for those in the southern states from the even colder temperatures. Having the conference in July also meant that a different set of delegates could attend the meeting, and it was a pleasure to meet some new faces. As has become common at AMOS meetings, there was very good attendance by students and early-career scientists; it was also pleasing to see many of the senior members of the AMOS community in attendance as well. It is this broad level of engagement at AMOS meetings that make them a successful forum for discussing our science.

As you may recall, AMOS has introduced a number of new awards over the last few years, with the last of these—the Distinguished Research Award—being decided in 2015.

The Awards Committee has spent a great deal of time developing these awards, writing background material on the named awards, and refining the selection criteria for all awards. The Awards Committee has also helped refine

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the process around the selection of AMOS Fellows, which has now become highly competitive (providing further evidence that the AMOS Fellowship is now seen as a significant measure of prestige).

As always the regional centres have maintained a high level of activity, which helps develop local AMOS communities, engage the general public, and attract new members. The weather tipping competition also continues to be a highly successful engagement and outreach tool, among other outreach activities. Finally, BAMOS has grown substantially, having expanded the range of fascinating articles and other material. Congratulations to the BAMOS Editorial team for this continued success.

Looking to the future, AMOS has a number of areas that deserve continued focus: At the time of writing we are in final stages of approval of the AMOS climate statement. Yet, we need to continue to develop formal AMOS policies and positions through creating more statements. Such statements should allow improved and more effective representation of Society views and communication of state-of-the-art science.

Leading these statements is a key role of the expert groups.

The formation of the first set of expert groups is currently in the final stages of approval by Council.

We need to grow our membership. A strong membership base is required to properly fund the Society and allow it to embark on new initiatives. I feel we are effective in attracting students and early-career scientists to be members, and our range of activities, new initiatives and member benefits should encourage individuals to continue to renew. Expanding membership amongst amateur enthusiasts is an area of potential growth, and there may be opportunities to broaden our membership base to related disciplines as well.

The AGM will also see the end of my term as President of AMOS and therefore this will be my last BAMOS column.

It has certainly been an honour to serve as President, which has definitely been challenging at times, but very enjoyable and rewarding. AMOS is a vibrant society that defines and underpins our scientific community. I feel that AMOS continues to be in a strong position and look forward to seeing the Society continue to prosper. I’ve been pleased to contribute to its evolution and ongoing efforts.

I am thankful to all in the AMOS community for their support over the last two years. I’ve been particularly pleased at how willing people have been to help out with AMOS activities—we are a society held together by a network of enthusiastic volunteers. I am continually

President’s Column

impressed by our members’ depth of commitment to AMOS. I’d like to acknowledge those who I’ve worked with most closely during my time as President: the AMOS Executive —Mary Voice, Angela Maharaj, and Damien Irving who’ve all been critical parts of the AMOS leadership; Jeanette Dargaville who quite simply keeps the Society running; Melissa Lyne for helping to transform our communication activities; members of Council for their ongoing contributions, ideas, and feedback; and the Chairs of the AMOS committees and (past, present, and future) conferences for their significant efforts. Recent AMOS Presidents, Blair Trewin and Neville Nicholls, were both invaluable sources of advice, of which I am most appreciative.

I’d specifically like to pay tribute Mark Williams for his significant efforts as Chair of the AMOS Awards Committee. He’s been Chair for about ten years, being a regular member of the Awards Committee for a number of years before that. He has also overseen and led the changes to all of the AMOS awards over recent years. This has been a marathon effort, for which I am very grateful.

In a few weeks, when I pass the reins to Mary Voice (the nominee for President), I will be leaving the Society in very capable hands. I have worked closely with Mary over the last few years in her role as Vice President. It is clear that Mary is an asset to AMOS and will be an outstanding President. I wish Mary and Andrew Marshall (the nominee for Vice President) the very best for their terms in the AMOS lead roles. As immediate Past President, I will continue to enjoy contributing to AMOS as a member of Council for the coming years.

I wish you all a successful 2016 and look forward to seeing many of you at the upcoming national conference—it promises to be another fantastic AMOS event.

Todd Lane

News

Congratulations to the 2015 AMOS Awardees Todd Lane, AMOS President

Inaugural Distinguished Research Award

Priestley Medal

Professor Michael Reeder, Monash University

Associate Professor Andy Hogg, Australian National University

Michael Reeder has made outstanding research contributions to Australian meteorology over the last three decades that have substantially improved understanding of many high impact weather phenomena affecting Australia, including cold fronts, heat waves, bushfires, tropical cyclones and tropical convection. His research has focused on the dynamics of these phenomena combining theoretical, observational, field and numerical modelling studies. His research has been both innovative and transformative in a number of different areas; notable examples include frontal systems over southern and central Australia, the Morning Glory, and coupled atmospherefire modelling. He has served AMOS in a range of roles, including as the 2004–2005 AMOS President.

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Andy Hogg is a physical oceanographer who has made outstanding contributions to understanding the dynamics of global-scale ocean circulation, particularly in the Southern Ocean. He was the primary developer of a high resolution model used to demonstrate that eddy processes can have controlling influences on the global scale flow, and is helping to drive Australian climate modelling efforts towards eddy-resolving simulations. He has also helped to formulate the mechanical energy budget and driving forces for the oceans. Most notably, he has contributed to a new understanding of the way the Southern Ocean will respond to climate change, which carries significant implications for the development of future climate models.

He is currently an ARC Future Fellow.

News Christopher Taylor Award

Uwe Radok Ph.D. Thesis Award

Mr. Dean Sgarbossa, Bureau of Meteorology

Dr. Adele Morrison, Princeton University (formerly Australian National University)

Dean Sgarbossa has been an operational forecaster in the Victorian Regional Office of the Bureau of Meteorology since 2009. During that period he has been involved in many activities beyond his normal duties, which have had important impacts on forecasting tools being used at the Bureau. Notably, he implemented and developed training materials for the new data viewing system for the Victorian region. In this role he worked closely with the system developers to improve functionality and enabled improved ways to display information and calculated diagnostics. Dean also made important contributions to developing the wind change chart and implementation of new severe weather parameters, motivated by his passion for severe weather. These activities make him a deserving recipient of the Christopher Taylor Award.

Adele Morrison completed her Ph.D. entitled “Response of the Southern Ocean circulation to changes in global climate” in 2014 within the Research School of Earth Sciences at ANU. Adele’s project focussed on idealised models for the circulation of the Southern Ocean. Her research included some of the highest resolution ocean models of that region, allowing Adele to conduct worldfirst simulations to test the dependence of the circulation upon fine-scale processes such as eddies. Adele’s work has contributed to constraining how large-scale circulation in the Southern Ocean will respond to climate change, as well as innovative new studies into projected future abyssal ocean circulation. In addition to being an independent and creative researcher, Adele is also an outstanding communicator. She is now a postdoctoral fellow at Princeton University.

Bureau supports Indian Ocean research expedition Bureau of Meteorology

The Bureau of Meteorology is supporting the second International Indian Ocean Expedition (IIOE-2), which launched last month in Goa, India, the 50th anniversary of the end of the first expedition.

The IIOE-2 is an interdisciplinary oceanographic research effort over five years. It aims to build on the scientific understanding of the Indian Ocean region in order to enhance the economic and social benefits of Indian Ocean rim nations, which includes Australia.

Dr. Ray Canterford, Bureau spokesperson and Australian national representative to the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), said Australia and the Bureau will play a vital role in the expedition’s research effort, alongside a number of government agencies, universities and other Australian institutions.

Secretariat support for the expedition is undertaken through the IOC’s Perth Programme Office, which is housed in the Bureau’s Perth regional office. Dr. Canterford said, “The Bureau provides critical operational and administrative support via the Perth Programme Office, which is also financially aided by the IOC and the Western Australian Government. The Western Australian Government has contributed to the scientific work of the IIOE-2.”

“Australia’s contributions to the expedition will include ongoing oceanographic observations and a range of IIOE2 related research activities.”

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More than 45 research agencies, from at least 14 different countries, will explore the Indian Ocean and collect useful data as part of the expedition. The science will cross many disciplines and a variety of methods and vehicles will be used to collect data. Dr. Canterford said, “Oceanographers will find and track large scale currents that cross from one end of the ocean to the other. Seabed properties will be better understood and the upwelling of food rich waters from the deep will be measured and studied.”

“The generation of weather patterns above the ocean and the way in which weather systems are energised from the ocean surface temperature will be measured, greatly improving the understanding of hazardous systems in monsoonal patterns, storms in general, winds and drought/flood phenomena.”

The IIOE-2 operates under the auspices of the UNESCO IOC, the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research and the Indian Ocean Global Ocean Observing System.

The first International Indian Ocean Expedition (IIOE) was undertaken between 1959 and 1965 and it remains the most significant scientific survey of the Indian Ocean ever performed.

The Bureau has a significant and long-standing engagement in the Indian Ocean, including an extensive observations programme, providing meteorological and oceanographic data critical to the provision of weather and climate services for Australia and the region.

News

Hot and dry: 2015 climate summary Melissa Lyne

A hot and foggy day at Bondi Beach. Image: Melissa Lyne.

Last year was Australia’s fifth warmest year on record, featuring below-average rainfall, an above-average national mean temperature, significant heatwaves, drought in parts, and a strong El Niño event. This is according to the Bureau’s annual climate statement for 2015, which was released at the start of 2016. Australian climate scientists commented in the media that the extreme heat is a result of both natural variability and human influence on the climate system.

Dr. Karl Braganza, Manager of Climate Monitoring at the National Climate Centre said in Australia the year was dominated by the influence of an El Niño event, which is the strongest event of the past two decades.

“The year ended on a very hot and dry note as the influence of El Niño took hold in September,” Dr. Braganza said.

This El Niño resulted in the hottest ever recorded temperatures for spring in 2013, 2014 and now 2015, according to Dr. Sophie Lewis, Research Fellow at The Australian National University and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

“Our research from 2015 shows that record-breaking hot temperatures over the last 15 years outnumber new cold records by a factor of 12-to-1,” Dr. Lewis said.

The year was also the hottest year on record across the globe.

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This is worrying for the oceans, as the Bureau’s statement indicates that sea surface temperatures in 2015 were at the third-warmest since 1900.

“The evidence indicates that sea level is continuing to rise,” Dr. John Church, Leader of the Sea Level Rise Program at CSIRO, said.

“This rise is from expansion of the warming ocean and the loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets, with a small contribution from changes in land water storage,” he explained.

“The rate of rise over the last two decades is faster than for the 20th century as a whole.”

At the end of last year, nearly 200 world governments signed an agreement on fighting climate change, aiming for the world to be carbon neutral at some point between 2050 and 2100. Dr. Sarah Perkins, a research fellow at the Climate Change Research Centre on the changing nature of heatwaves said of the Paris Climate Conference agreement, “While not perfect, the Paris agreement is a massive leap by the global community towards preventing dangerous climate change as much as possible.”

For more on the Bureau’s climate staement, please see: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/

News

Major voyage underway to study impact of submarine volcanoes on ocean ecosystems Marine National Facility (MNF) at CSIRO RV Investigator near McDonald Island. Image: Pete Harmsen on behalf of MNF.

CSIRO’s Marine National Facility research vessel Investigator departed early in the year from Fremantle on its longest voyage to date. Research conducted on the trip will examine the link between active volcanoes on the seafloor and the mobilisation of iron, which enriches and supports life in the Southern Ocean.

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) Prof.

Mike Coffin—a marine geophysicist and global expert on large igneous provinces including the Kerguelen Plateau— is Chief Scientist for the 58-day Southern Ocean voyage to the subantarctic Heard and McDonald Islands.

The remote islands are situated 4,000 km south-west of Perth and 2,000 kilometres north of Australia’s base at Davis Station in Antarctica. “We suspect that hydrothermally mobilised iron is critical to the growth of phytoplankton blooms, the foundation of life in the Southern Ocean ecosystem,” Prof. Coffin said.

“Moreover, phytoplankton contribute at least half of the oxygen in Earth’s atmosphere. This voyage, my sixth to the region since 1985, will allow us to map the seafloor on the Kerguelen Plateau systematically for the first time so we Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 160

can identify active submarine volcanoes and the source of iron-enriched waters.”

“As well as supporting ocean life and supplying our atmosphere with oxygen, phytoplankton blooms impact carbon, nitrogen, silicon and sulphur, which influence the Earth’s entire climate system.”

Associate Prof. Andrew Bowie, Co-Chief Scientist and a leading expert on ocean iron biogeochemistry, said the growth of phytoplankton is limited by the trace element iron in the Southern Ocean.

“Quite simply, the Southern Ocean is anaemic,” Prof. Bowie said. “If we find that iron supplied through hydrothermal activity exerts control on the dynamics of phytoplankton blooms and fertilising the Southern Ocean, as we postulate, it will be the first proven link globally between solid Earth processes associated with hotspot volcanism and biological processes in the ocean.”

Igneous petrologist and world-leading volcano expert, Prof. Richard Arculus from The Australian National University (ANU), is also Co-Chief Scientist on the voyage.

News

RV Investigator in rough weather in the Southern Ocean. Image: Pete Harmsen on behalf of MNF.

“Investigator’s specialised research capabilities will allow us to systematically map the submarine portion of the central Kerguelen Plateau and surrounding abyssal ocean floor, and unlock the secrets of this globally important volcanic system,” Prof. Arculus said.

“Using Investigator’s sea floor mapping and sub-sea floor acoustic systems, we will survey active hydrothermal systems (“black smokers”) and submarine volcanoes, which we think could be distributed for several hundred kilometres over the seafloor surrounding Heard and McDonald islands.”

Investigator’s capabilities will allow scientists to capture 3D images of the seafloor; tow a deep sea camera; deploy sensors; collect rock, sediment, and sea water samples to allow tracking of hydrothermal fluids from the seafloor to the ocean’s surface; and identify phytoplankton blooms.

The research voyage concludes on 5 March in Hobart, with 26 scientists and students from IMAS, the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, the University of Tasmania, ANU, CSIRO, the University of New South Wales, the Pierre and Marie Curie University/CNRS’s (France) Microbial Oceanography Laboratory (LOMIC), the University of Western Brittany’s (France) European Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 161

Institute for Marine Studies (IUEM), and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego.

This project is supported through funding from the Australian Government’s Australian Research Council and Australian Antarctic Science Grant Program.

Two artists supported by the Australia Council for the Arts, a photographer, and a cinematographer will also join the voyage. It also will host several scientists and deploy equipment contributing to other significant research projects, including international programs GEOTRACES, SOCCOM, and Kerguelen Axis.

RV Investigator is owned and operated by CSIRO on behalf of the nation and is available to all scientists employed by an Australian research organisation and their international collaborators. Access is granted on the basis of proposals that are internationally peer reviewed, and independently assessed for science quality and contribution to the national interest.

The $120 million ship was completed in 2014, and supports atmospheric, oceanographic, biological and geoscience research.

News from the Centres

Hobart Centre welcomes John Church, Damien Irving and Steven Phipps to the crease Andrew Marshall

Chair, Hobart Regional Centre

Neil Holbrook faces the legspin of his son Liam while Mike Pook anticipates a controversial snick. Image: Andrew Marshall.

The Hobart Regional Centre held a picturesque Annual General Meeting on Sunday 6 December 2015 at Mike and Ann Pook’s farm in Lucaston, 40 km south of Hobart. Located next to a carefully manicured cricket green with “Raj” the donkey watching on adoringly, the Hobart committee provided a barbeque lunch next to Bakers Creek, a tributary of Mountain River. Homemade sausages, salads and local organic apple juice were on offer for the two dozen attendees as the cricket pitch warmed in the afternoon sun. Before taking to the crease, the players gathered to receive the Chair and Treasurer’s reports, elect the new committee for 2016, and discuss any matters of significance to the Centre for the year ahead.

Following some pre-match entertainment from a young heckler, the AGM proceeded smoothly with little in the way of dispute arising from the Chair and Treasurer’s reports. The recently reformed Hobart Centre maintained a solid financial position and member base in 2015. This was maintained with well-attended public lectures at the University of Tasmania in Hobart and Launceston in association with National Science Week, and also local member tours of the Marine National Facility’s RV Investigator earlier in the year. Each office bearer was keen to continue carrying out their respective duty into 2016 with no contesting nominations. A last call for general nominations attracted new members John Church and Steven Phipps, in addition to Damien Irving (AMOS Council Secretary) who will be relocating from Melbourne this year.

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The AGM concluded with discussion of the AMOS Academic Achievement Award for 2015, to be announced at the 2016 conference and awarded to a University of Tasmania undergraduate in the Bachelor of Marine and Antarctic Studies. Plans for the Hobart Centre for 2016 include a public lecture and forum at the University of Tasmania on the Southern Ocean and Antarctica and its relevance to Tasmania, and a student-focussed education outreach event in association with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

The 2016 Hobart Regional Centre committee comprises Andrew Marshall (Chair), Neil Holbrook (Vice-Chair), Zanna Chase (Secretary), Andrew Klekociuk (Treasurer), Pete Strutton, Helen Phillips, Mike Pook, Steven Phipps, John Church, Damien Irving and Craig Macaulay. Gary Meyers has taken a temporary leave from his position and the committee looks forward to his return with best wishes and appreciation for his valuable contributions over the past year.

The committee thanks Mike and Ann Pook for their hard work in hosting such a delicious AGM. The Hobart Centre also acknowledges kind support in 2015 from the University of Tasmania, National Science Week, Inspiring Australia, the Australian Institute of Physics, the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

News from the Centres

AMOS Postgraduate Symposium Stephanie Jacobs Melbourne Centre

The 4th AMOS Postgraduate Symposium was held at Monash University on Wednesday 25 November. The annual event provides a friendly setting for undergraduate and postgraduate students to present a 12-minute conference-style talk, sharing both their science and some aspect of their experience as a research student. It also has a strict “No Adults Allowed” policy, whereby anyone with a Ph.D. is not allowed to view the talks. This helps foster a comfortable environment for the students to present in.

More than 30 students registered from six institutions, with 21 students presenting their research across topics including urban climate, thunderstorm and lightning climatologies, and vorticity dynamics!

Ph.D. candidates Bronwyn Dixon (University of Melbourne) and David Kinniburgh (Monash University)

were awarded the prize for best presentation for their talks entitled, “Investigation of controls on daily and monthly d18O at Kangaroo Island, South Australia” and “Coupled fire-atmosphere modelling”, respectively.

After the conference there was a social event where the students could further mingle over some refreshments.

This very successful event was supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Science and hosted by the Monash University School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment. The AMOS Melbourne Centre is grateful to the organising committee, all attendees, guests and contributors for their hard work, attention and great science.

ECR events at the upcoming AMOS/ARCCSS conference Melissa Hart

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) are running two events at the 2016 AMOS/ ARCCSS national conference.

The following ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (ARCCSS) Early Career Researcher (ECR) events are open to all students and ECRs (nominally 5 years post-Ph.D.) working in the meteorological, oceanographic and climate sciences. Please register for the events when you register for the AMOS conference. http://www.imis100ap1.com.au/amos/AC2016/Register. aspx Early Career Researcher (ECR) Social Event Thursday 11 Feb 2016, 6 p.m. onwards.

Location: TBC. Drinks and nibbles provided.

Early Career Researcher (ECR) Day Friday 12 Feb 2016, 10 a.m. until 4 p.m.

Skeats Lab, 2nd Floor McCoy Building, School of Earth Science, University of Melbourne.

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Morning tea and lunch are provided, and the day will conclude with an informal afternoon tea with the panel.

The 2016 Early Career Researcher (ECR) day will focus on how to get jobs in both research and industry.

It will begin with a keynote presentation by Michael Nolan, chair of the UN Global Compact Cities Program, on nonacademic career pathways for atmosphere/ocean/climate science graduates.

This will be followed by a workshop facilitated by Karl Braganza (Bureau of Meteorology) and Alvin Stone (ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science) on explaining your research and skills to a non-expert, like a potential future employer.

Lastly, we’ll have speakers from industry, government and academia talking about their experience in getting their current job and a panel discussion.

If you have any questions about either event, please contact Stephanie Jacobs stephanie.jacobs@monash.edu, or Sugata Narsey sugata.narsey@monash.edu.

Article

Understanding natural and anthropogenic influences on recent climate extremes in Australia: a review of studies using the Fraction of Attributable Risk approach Sophie C. Lewis

ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia Throughout 2010–2012, Australia experienced extreme precipitation, with records broken on daily through to 2-year timescales. In 2013, Australia experienced its hottest day, week, month, season and year since observational records began in 1910. Aspects of these record-breaking events have been investigated in terms of their contributing factors. Did anthropogenic influences contribute to the observed extremes, and if so, by how much? Here, I review a set of Australian studies employing a suite of climate model simulations to quantify the contribution of both anthropogenic climate change and natural variability to recent Australia-wide heavy rainfall and extreme temperatures. These studies show that the extreme 2010–2012 rainfall was associated with two consecutive strong La Niña events. Conversely, the record 2013 Australian summer, spring and annual temperatures were substantially influenced by human-caused climate change. Overall, attribution studies such as these focusing on specific extreme events can provide useful information for adaptive strategies for future extremes.

1. Introduction In the period of late 2012 to 2015, Australia experienced well above average temperatures. The previous years of 2010-2012 were unusually cool and wet, in association with strong, consecutive La Niña events (Bureau of Meteorology, 2012). As these exceptional La Niña episodes subsided, sustained high temperatures across Australia

Precipitation anomalies (mm)

500

Australia has a naturally variable climate, including the most variable annual rainfall of any inhabited continent (Nicholls et al., 1997). In eastern Australia, this high rainfall variability is primarily driven by the influence of El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) (Risbey et al., 2009). Largescale modes of variability such as ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), amongst others, may influence observed extreme temperatures and rainfall (Arblaster and Alexander, 2012; King et al., 2014b). In addition to the influence of natural climate drivers, the occurrence of extreme events may relate to long-term mean climate warming. A shift in mean climate can lead to a very large corresponding percentage changes in the occurrence of extremes (Trenberth and Fasullo, 2012) and in terms of temperatures, an increase in the probability of heat extremes on various timescales (Coumou and Robinson, 2013). An increase in heavy rainfall is also expected from general thermodynamic arguments relating extreme rainfall with increasing atmospheric water vapour due to anthropogenic warming trends (Pall et al., 2007; 2011).

a. Southeastern Australian April-March Precipitation

2010-11

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Figure 1: Examples of recently observed extreme rainfall (a) and temperatures (b) in Australia. (a) Observed southeastern Australian April to March precipitation accumulation anomalies (mm, relative to 1961–1990) from 1910– 2012. Average anomalies during 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 are shown by red squares. Timeseries derived from AWAP gridded data [Jones et al., 2009]. Figure adapted from Lewis and Karoly [2014a]. (b) Observed Australian-average annual mean temperature (Tmean) anomalies (°C, relative to 1911–1940) from 1910–2013. Timeseries derived from ACORN-SAT [Trewin, 2012].

were recorded. In 2013, for example, Australia-wide temperature records were broken for the hottest day, week, month, season and year on record (Bureau of Meteorology, 2014a). Temperature records were broken on spatial scales ranging from individual locations through to State- and continent-wide area averages, and on timescales ranging from daily through to annual averages.

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Article Although we cannot definitively ascribe an event to a specific cause, the roles of various factors contributing to the change in likelihood of an event can be identified and quantified. This attribution approach has increasingly been applied to specific climatic extremes occurring in various regions (e.g., Stott et al., 2004; Pall et al., 2011; Lott et al., 2013). Here, a review of such studies investigating the contributing factors to several extreme climate events observed in Australia during the period of 2010–2014 using an attribution approach is set out. After a broad review of the literature, the study then focuses on those studies linked by a common framework that adopts the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR) method (Stone and Allen, 2005) in order to investigate the roles of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability in contributing to observed Australian extremes. In each case, the questions of whether anthropogenic influences contributed to the observed extreme, and by how much, are addressed.

2. Recent extreme climate events In Australia, during 2010-2012, rainfall records were broken on daily to yearly timescales, and on spatial scales ranging from individual stations to continent-wide averages (see Fig 1a) (Ganter and Tobin, 2013). This was also Australia’s wettest two-year period on record. The wet conditions experienced in Australia during this time coincided with two strong, back-to-back La Niña episodes, which are often characterised by enhanced rainfall in eastern Australia. Following the extreme rainfall, which resulted in significant property damage and loss of life, the links between the magnitude of the rainfall and prevailing ENSO conditions were discussed (Nicholls, 2011). Several studies later explicitly investigated the causes of various rainfall records across Australia broken during 2010 and 2011 (Christidis et al., 2013; King et al., 2013), as well as the 2010–2012 highest two-year rainfall total since records began in 1910, which is described in detail in section 4.

From spring 2012 through 2014, Australia experienced well-above average temperatures. During this period of sustained warmth, observed temperature records were broken on daily through to annual timescales, and on spatial scales from individual stations through to Australia-wide areal-averages. In 2013, Australia-wide area-average temperature records were set for the hottest day, week, month, and season observed. Moreover, 2013 was also the warmest year on record (see Fig. 1b) (Bureau of Meteorology, 2014a). Several examples of extreme Australia-wide temperatures have been explored in terms of average Australian temperatures having warmed by 0.9°C since high-quality records began in 1910 (Bureau of Meteorology, 2014b). These studies have focused on summer heatwaves such as those observed in January 2013 (Perkins et al., 2014), the extreme temperatures in 2013 in inland eastern Australia (King et al., 2014a), and the 2013 record Australian spring (Arblaster et al., 2014).

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 165

These studies provide a comprehensive understanding of the observed extremes. Nevertheless, in describing the influence of natural variability and human-caused climate change on recent extremes, below the primary focus is on the outcomes of a suite of studies employing the FAR technique using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012) data.

3. A framework for attribution The contributing factors to the record 2010–2012 Australian rainfall and several continent-wide monthly, seasonal and annual temperature records set in 2013 have been explored in a set of studies using a unified FAR approach and set of observational and model data. The FAR value provides a quantitative estimate of the change in risk of a defined extreme event occurring that is attributable to anthropogenic influences. To calculate the FAR value, firstly an event is defined; for example, we might examine area-average Australian summer temperatures exceeding a magnitude threshold. Next, the probability of such an event occurring is calculated using a large ensemble of climate models incorporating anthropogenic forcings (i.e., long-lived greenhouse gases, aerosols and ozone) and compared to the probability of such an event occurring in a parallel model experiment, where only natural climate forcings (i.e., solar and volcanic aerosol changes) are imposed (Allen, 2003). The FAR value is defined formally as:

FAR = 1−

PNAT , PALL

Where PALL is the probability of an event occurring in model simulations with both natural and anthropogenic forcings, and PNAT in the parallel experiments with only natural forcings imposed.

In the series of studies highlighted here, estimates of the attributable risk of recently observed extreme Australian rainfall and temperature events are made using CMIP5 detection and attribution experiments (Taylor et al., 2012). The probability of Australian areaaverage precipitation or temperatures exceeding an event magnitude threshold was calculated for simulations with natural forcings only (historicalNat experiments and piControl as an estimate of natural climate variability) and compared to the probability in simulations with both anthropogenic and natural forcings imposed (historical and RCP8.5 experiments, which are concatenated). Many CMIP5 models contributed standardised detection and attribution experiments and models were included for use in each extreme event study based on their skill in simulating observed Australian climate variability (Jones et al., 2009; Trewin, 2012), for the relevant event, using the Perkins’ skill score (Perkins et al., 2007). Using two key aspects of the experimental design, these studies provide conservative estimates of the change in event likelihood

Article

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Figure 2: Comparison of model simulations showing that anthropogenic influences on heavy rainfall are equivocal, but a substantial ENSO influence is discernible. (a) Probability density functions (PDFs) comparing southeastern Australian standardised rainfall anomalies for April to March in CMIP5 historical (red, 1976–2005 only) and piControl (dark blue, all years shown relative to long-term mean) simulations for above average rainfall in simulated La Niña years. (b) Probability density functions (PDFs) comparing southeastern Australian rainfall accumulation for April to March in 2009–2010 (red, representing El Niño conditions) and 2010–2011 (blue, representing La Niña conditions) in CAM5.1 model simulations. Figure adapted from Lewis and Karoly [2014a].

that can be attributed to anthropogenic forcings. First, a conservative extreme event threshold was defined as the second highest value in the observed sequence. Second, a distribution of possible attributable risk values was calculated and an assessment of uncertainty obtained.

In these studies, conservative estimates of the FAR values are reported, meaning that FAR values reported are exceeded by 90% of the values in the distribution of FAR values calculated. Lewis and Karoly (2013) outline comprehensive details of this analytical approach.

4. Understanding the causes of recent extremes These CMIP5 model experiments were used to investigate the record 2-year Australia-wide rainfall totals observed over 2010 to 2012, in terms of the influence of (1) anthropogenic climate change and (2) the prevailing strong La Niña conditions (Lewis and Karoly, 2014a). This study focused on seasonal to two-year Australian rainfall extremes for southeastern and eastern Australia and continent-wide regions. Similarly, contributing influences on the observed record rainfall were investigated using multiple extreme rainfall thresholds, including rainfall above the observed precipitation mean (“average”), one standard deviation above normal (“heavy”) and two standard deviations above normal (“extreme”) (Christidis et al., 2013). Overall, Lewis and Karoly (2014a) found that anthropogenic influences on heavy rainfall were equivocal (Fig. 2a). The attribution results depend on the thresholds of rainfall, seasons and Australian regions considered.

Furthermore, when rainfall was analysed using a wider set of climate model ensembles (the Attribution of extreme weather and Climate Events (ACE) approach (Christidis et al., 2012)), results also depended on the models utilised.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 166

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As the heavy 2010–2012 rainfall in Australia occurred during two strong La Niña events, Lewis and Karoly (2014a) also used the FAR approach to quantify the influences on rainfall of La Niña episodes simulated in the climate models. Overall, simulated La Niña conditions increased the likelihood of heavy and extreme Australian rainfall. Furthermore, this result was found to be robust, with a La Niña influence on rainfall discernible in each region, for various seasons. Overall, there was very likely a fivefold increase in the risk of April–March extreme rainfall in southeastern Australia attributable to simulated La Niña conditions (Fig. 2b).

This seasonal to annual-scale focused analysis largely reflects studies focused on shorter-term (daily to monthly) rainfall extremes observed during the 2010–2012 period (Christidis et al., 2013; King et al., 2013). These other studies also find limited evidence for a substantial change in likelihood of extreme rainfall attributable to anthropogenic climate change, and demonstrate the complexity of understanding processes influencing heavy rainfall. The strong La Niña conditions occurring at the time of the extreme rainfall were an important contributing factor, but do not wholly explain the record Australian rainfall. This likely had several potential contributing factors, including background anthropogenic warming, Pacific variability and anomalous local conditions.

Further studies suggest that anomalously warm local sea surface temperature (SST) conditions may have enhanced extreme rainfall occurring at this time (Evans and BoyerSouchet, 2012; Hendon et al., 2013).

The attribution of seasonal to annual-scale extreme Australia-wide temperatures has proved more straightforward than for precipitation. The same CMIP5

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Figure 3: Comparison of model simulations, showing a substantial increase in likelihood of hot summer and spring conditions due to anthropogenic forcings. (a) Probability density functions for Australian summer (DJF) Tmean anomalies (°C, relative to 1911– 1940) for observations (dashed black) and historicalNat (green, all years shown) and RCP8.5 (black, 2006–2020 only) CMIP5 simulations.

Vertical dashed lines show observed 2013 anomaly (ΔTDJF1) and threshold of the second hottest summer on record (ΔTDJF2). (b) As for panel (a) but showing Australian spring (SON) Tmean anomalies. Figure adapted from Lewis and Karoly [2013; 2014b].

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detection and attribution experiments have provided the basis for quantitative estimates of anthropogenic influences on the likelihood of extreme summer, spring and annual Australia-wide temperatures (Lewis and Karoly, 2013; 2014b). In the first such study, Lewis and Karoly (2013) focused on understanding extreme summer temperatures such as those occurring during the 2012– 2013 hottest summer on record for Australia (Bureau of Meteorology, 2013). Model simulations reveal there was at least a fivefold increase in the odds of extreme heat due to human influences (Fig. 3a). When the record hot 2013 spring and annual Australia-wide temperatures are considered, the attributable anthropogenic influence is greater. There is a 50-fold attributable increase in the likelihood of hot spring conditions (Fig. 3b) (Lewis and Karoly, 2014b). For annual average temperatures, it is virtually impossible to reach such a temperature record due to naturally forced climate variability alone in these model simulations.

The substantial human influence on recently observed extreme seasonal- to annual- scale Australian temperatures is supported by further studies. For example, Knutson et al. (2014) similarly determined that record Australian temperatures such as in 2013 were largely outside the range of modelled natural climate variability. Perkins et al. (2014) focused on summer heatwaves such as those observed in January 2013 and found that anthropogenic influences increased the risk of heatwave frequency and intensity, by two- and three-fold, respectively. Next, King et al. (2014a) determined that extreme temperatures in 2013 in inland eastern Australia were attributable to a combination of anthropogenic warming and extreme drought conditions.

Finally, Arblaster et al. (2014) used a different approach Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 167

of model sensitivity experiments to investigate the process behind the spring 2013 record heat, finding that record temperatures arose from a combination of atmospheric circulation, dry and warm land surface conditions and the anthropogenic background warming trend.

Summary and outlook The major results from a suite of studies investigating the contributing factors to recent extreme Australian precipitation and temperatures using a unified approach based on FAR values calculated from CMIP5 detection and attribution experiments are presented above. In this approach, after the occurrence of an observed climate extreme, a quantitative assessment of the change in likelihood of such an event occurring due to anthropogenic influences is made using an ensemble of climate models run under varying conditions. This approach has been applied to understanding the natural and anthropogenic climatic factors influencing the record rainfall in Australia during 2010–2012 (Lewis and Karoly, 2014a) and the persistent Australia-wide extreme heat of 2013 (Lewis and Karoly, 2013; 2014b).

These studies demonstrated that the strong La Niña conditions occurring at the time of the extreme 2010– 2012 rainfall were an important contributing factor, but do not entirely explain the record Australian rainfall. The heavy rainfall was likely a result of several influences, including anthropogenic warming, Pacific variability and anomalous local conditions. The record summer, spring and annual Australia-wide temperatures of 2013 are more readily understandable in terms of changes in likelihood as a result of anthropogenic background warming. For example, Lewis and Karoly (2014b) suggest that it is

Article virtually impossible to reach the record annual 2013 temperatures due to naturally forced climate variability alone.

Analysis of extreme events occurring in other regions has revealed similar information about anthropogenic influences on extreme observed temperatures (e.g. Stott et al., 2004; Jones et al., 2008). Globally, an increase in the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves is widespread (Perkins et al., 2012). On longer timescales, an increase in the frequency of monthly to seasonal-scale temperatures extremes has been widely shown (Hansen et al., 2012; Christidis et al., 2014), including at a faster rate than daily extremes (Coumou and Rahmstorf, 2012).

The attribution of extreme events to particular causes, such as greenhouse gas forcings and/or large-scale modes of natural variability, provides valuable information for assessing the risk and associated costs of climate change impacts (Stott et al., 2012). By focusing on specific events, information for developing adaptive strategies can be provided. In the example of understanding the changing likelihood of extreme Australia-wide summer temperatures, such as those experienced in 2012–2013, Lewis and Karoly (2013) suggest that a substantial decrease in the return times of extreme summers is likely under future anthropogenic greenhouse warming, with implications for human and natural systems. As such, in the bushfire prone and highly populated regions of southeastern Australia, understanding of such risks and changes has implications for adaptive decisions. Future research providing quantitative extreme event attribution of high impact events will provide a useful tool for informing such decisions.

Acknowledgements This review was supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (grant CE 110001028) and an ARC DECRA (DE160100092).

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Article

Understanding the Southern Ocean through sustained Observations

Louise Newman1, Oscar Schofield2, Anna W책hlin3, Andrew Constable4, Sebastiaan Swart5, Mike Williams6, Matthew Mazloff7, Yvonne Firing8, Phillippa Bricher9 1.

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SOOS International Project Office, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Australia Rutgers University, USA University of Gothenburg, Sweden Australian Antarctic Division, Australia Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa NIWA, New Zealand Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA National Oceanography Centre, UK SOOS International Project Office, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Australia

The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS; www. soos.aq) is an international initiative sponsored by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) with the mission to facilitate the collection and delivery of essential observations on variability and change of Southern Ocean systems to all international stakeholders.

This is achieved through the design, implementation and advocacy of cost-effective observing programs, coupled with efficient systems for accessing and delivering data from the region.

The importance of the Southern Ocean in the global climate and biogeochemical system is well recognised (IPCC, 2014; Kennicutt et al., 2014; Heywood et al, 2014; Paolo et al, 2015; Schmidtko et al, 2014; Meredith et al, 2013) and many recent publications highlight observed changes in Southern Ocean systems as a cause for global concern (Constable et al, 2014). The floating glaciers along the coast are melting at an accelerating rate (Paolo et al, 2015) driven largely by a warming of the Southern Ocean.

This warming is occurring more rapidly than the global ocean average (Boning et al, 2008; Schmidtko et al, 2014).

The upper layers of the Southern Ocean have freshened (Schmidtko et al, 2014), sea-ice extent is showing strong regional trends (Stammerjohn et al, 2012; Massom et al, 2013), and the uptake of CO2 by the ocean is changing the chemical balance (e.g. Hauck et al., 2013; Fay et al, 2014; Wanninkhof et al., 2013). These changes in the physical and climate systems are already impacting Antarctic ecosystems (see Constable et al., 2014 for overview; Saba et al., 2014; Clucas et al, 2014).

Our ability to document the state of the Southern Ocean is dependent on observations collected through national field campaigns and internationally coordinated observation programs, such as Argo, Global Ocean Ship-based Hydrographic Investigations Program (GO-SHIP), the Southern Ocean-Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey, remote sensing and the ecosystem Monitoring Program of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 170

Living Resources (CEMP). Significant progress has been made by these communities, as shown by our recent ability to make statements on detection and attribution of change in the Southern Ocean (e.g. Meredith et al., 2015).

In addition to these coordinated, platform-based efforts, the Southern Ocean research community is pushing forward with large-scale, integrated and multidisciplinary observational time series programs. National time series such as the Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research (USA), Rothera Antarctic Time Series (UK), and joint Argentinean and German Jubany time series programs are yielding decades of data. These time series are complemented by multi-national expeditions to remote, but important regions such as international coordinated programs to assess the state and changes occurring in the Amundsen Sea. In this region, marine programs are run parallel to programs focused on ice-shelf stability, with globally significant impacts. There are many other efforts that have been vital in plugging observational gaps.

Despite much effort, the Southern Ocean remains the most undersampled of the global oceans. Of the 5 zones identified in Figure 1, only half of zone 1 is sampled sufficiently, and primarily for physics and during the summer season. Our understanding of the links between Southern Ocean processes, global climate, biogeochemical cycles and marine productivity continue to be hampered by a lack of long time series of observations undertaken at the correct time and space scales to characterise variability and change. Overcoming this data gap is imperative if we are to inform an effective response to the challenges of climate change, sea-level rise, ocean acidification and the sustainable use of marine resources.

The impact of these challenges was recently brought to the fore, when the SOOS community were approached to provide the first Southern Ocean section in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) State of the Climate 2014 (Meredith et al., 2015). Compiling this first assessment was a challenge due to the brevity required and from the sparse nature of most Southern

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Ocean observations. The ability to assess the state of any component of the global climate system is highly dependent upon available observations. In order to provide a basis for determining change, these climatequality observations need to be available over the desired assessment period. Only a few of the regions in the Southern Ocean meet these criteria.

In recognition of the difficulties in providing a comprehensive chapter on the state of the climate of the Southern Ocean, SOOS ran a workshop in June 2015 to gather community consensus on content and methods for future State of the Climate reports. Hosted by the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, and sponsored by SOOS and the New Zealand Deep South National Science Challenge, the workshop was attended by ~50 people and consisted of a combination of invited speakers and panel discussion. All of the presentations and the panel discussion were recorded and can be viewed on the SOOS YouTube Channel (https://www. youtube.com/channel/UCEqLDIztnACNpzY7607LVQQ/ playlists). Several of the challenges relating to Southern Ocean observation systems were discussed, highlighting in particular, the short and infrequent nature of most observational records. The resulting aliasing can further complicate analysis, as demonstrated by Figure 2, which summarises the time scales that different methods and instruments are able to measure, and the time scales they may alias. This issue, combined with the sparse observations under sea ice, and almost negligible coverage under ice shelves, gives reason for concern about the representativeness of the available data.

The brevity required in the BAMS Southern Ocean chapter resulted in important discussions being omitted, most notably assessment of the carbon system, the status of ice shelves, and documentation of assessment methods. Thus the workshop provided an opportunity to prioritise what should be assessed in future reports and best practices for Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 171

Figure 1: The high latitude Southern Ocean and Antarctic margin includes several physical environments, each with distinct characteristics that mean a different mix of platforms is appropriate in each case. See Rintoul et al., 2014 for a summary and explanation of the proposed observing strategy in each domain.

doing so. Three recommendations were made: 1. A publication covering a comprehensive assessment of the Southern Ocean climate that includes extensive discussions of methods that must be employed.

2. Future BAMS reports should not repeat the same calculations each year, but the community should determine interesting Southern Ocean climate “news”, such as an observed event (e.g., ice shelf calving) or be devoted to a topic that hasn’t been covered in recent assessments (e.g., the carbon content of the Weddell Gyre). A common view was that the BAMS report can provide a progress report on the Southern Ocean and how the community is contributing to the broader climate observation picture.

3. Specific themes or regions (e.g. Antarctica’s ice shelves and ice sheets) should be highlighted in their own section, following a similar model to the Arctic chapter. It was recommended that the community advocate for inclusion of these additional sections.

The workshop also articulated clear suggestions for prioritisation of observations. It was agreed that deep ocean sections (e.g., GO-SHIP transects) need to continue, as they provide the baselines needed for State of Climate assessments. Continuation and enhancement of existing Argo efforts (including >60° South) is imperative. These observations, combined with satellite observations, will soon cover much of the rest of the Southern Ocean. With continuation of current Argo and satellite efforts, the issue of short climatologies will be resolved as successive years make these records longer. Suggestions of further observational improvements that could be achieved with relative ease included working to increase the number of observations—particularly of air-sea flux—from vessels of opportunity; trying to better resolve bathymetry, particularly in Antarctica’s coastal seas; and, most crucially, collecting observations in the ice-covered seas.

Article

Figure 2: Summary of timescales measured by different ongoing or recent measurement systems/ observational programs in Drake Passage.

It was acknowledged that funding and logistic support both pose challenges to implementation and an ongoing effort is required in order to continue improving the observational network.

improved shipboard flux measurements. Discussions also covered the need for methods to put in-situ measurements in context via remote sensing, and for extrapolating data via synthesis with numerical models.

The need for enhanced air-sea flux observations from the Southern Ocean has also been articulated by other communities, across many disciplines (e.g., modelling, remote sensing, physical and biogeochemical oceanography). Reflecting this, in 2013 the SOOS Scientific Steering Committee identified air-sea fluxes as a priority gap in observations and organised an international workshop (September 2015) to develop a long-term strategy to address the data and knowledge gap. Hosted by the European Space Research Institute (ESRIN), and sponsored by SOOS, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the European Space Agency (ESA), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and US CLIVAR, this meeting brought 48 researchers together to discuss the current state of knowledge with regards to Southern Ocean air-sea exchanges.

Taking account of these new capabilities, three primary recommendations were proposed:

A key focus during the workshop was discussion of the air-sea flux accuracy requirements to address critical science needs. Discrepancies in various atmospheric reanalysis, and also in products inferred from ocean inversions, imply that Southern Ocean air-sea flux products are not yet accurate enough to address many of these questions. Yet, recent technological developments give hope that high-quality flux observations will be easier to attain. Technologies now reaching maturity include autonomous wave gliders (see Figure 3), unmanned aerial vehicles, aircraft observations, and new moorings (e.g., the Australian IMOS Southern Ocean Flux Station, the U.S. Ocean Observatories Initiative moorings in the southeast Pacific and the Argentine Basin). Moreover, the benefit and feasibility of correcting for airflow distortion around research vessels was demonstrated, giving hope for Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 172

1. Formation of a SOOS Air-Sea Fluxes working group that will oversee design and implementation of coordinated air-sea flux research efforts.

2. Inclusion of air-sea heat and momentum fluxes as Essential Climate Variables (e.g., GCOS), with specific requirements for accuracy and precision of measurements.

3. Development of a pilot project to demonstrate the feasibility of a large-scale Southern Ocean air-sea flux observing system. This pilot study is envisioned to be based around existing mooring and satellite infrastructure, augmented by targeted in situ observations. In the context of the Southern Ocean’s energetic eddy fields, the pilot study goal will be to determine in situ measurement accuracy, and coverage requirements for constraining assimilation efforts and for validating and calibrating satellite observations.

These workshops were important vehicles to bring together disconnected communities to address key challenges in our ability to make robust statements on the state of the Southern Ocean, and our ability to detect and attribute changes in the system to their causes. SOOS is active on many other fronts of potential interest to this community.

For example, the Southern Ocean contribution to the WMO Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP). In 2015, SOOS and the CLIVAR-CliC-SCAR Southern Ocean Regional Panel produced a report to YOPP (https://zenodo.org/ record/27261?ln=en#.VmYA8uN95E6), highlighting key Southern Ocean field and modelling capabilities of

Article

Figure 3: Southern Ocean deployments of a) South African Wave Gliders collecting CO2 flux, b) weather measurements over multiple months, and c) A Carbon Wave Glider (CSIR, S. Africa) being retrieved from the Sub-Antarctic after 3-months deployment.

relevance to YOPP, identifying key areas for collaborative efforts, and raising the imperative of the Southern Ocean’s role in prediction capabilities. This report initiated the development of the YOPP-Southern Hemisphere sub-committee to further planning (http://www. polarprediction.net/yopp/yopp-southern-hemisphere. html).

All SOOS activities are open for community engagement and involvement. If you would like further information on any of the above workshops or other SOOS initiatives and products, please visit the SOOS website (www.soos. aq) or contact the SOOS International Project Office at: info@soos.aq.

Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the support of the sponsors of the two SOOS workshops. The SOOS International Project Office is hosted by the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and the Australian Research Council’s Antarctic Gateway Partnership, at the University of Tasmania, Australia. This support, in addition to the broad international sponsorship of the SOOS IPO, enables coordination of all SOOS events and products and we acknowledge this support. All sponsorship information is available on the SOOS website at www.soos.aq

References Böning et al, 2008. The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change. Nature Geoscience 1, 864 - 869 Clucas, et al, 2014. A reversal of fortunes: climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in Antarctic Peninsula penguins. Sci Rep. 2014 Jun 12;4:5024. doi: 10.1038/srep05024 Constable, A. J., et al, 2014. Climate change and Southern Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 173

Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota. Global Change Biology 20, 3004-3025.

Fay, A. R., et al, 2014. “Southern Ocean carbon trends: Sensitivity to methods.” Geophysical Research Letters 41, no. 19 (2014): 6833-6840.

Hauck, J. et al, 2013. “Seasonally different carbon flux changes in the Southern Ocean in response to the southern annular mode.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27, no. 4 (2013): 1236-1245.

Heywood, K. et al, 2014. Ocean processes at the Antarctic continental slope. Phil.Trans.R.Soc.A, 372:20130047. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0047 IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report.

Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

Kennicutt II et al, 2014. Six priorities for Antarctic Science, Nature, 512 Massom, R., et al, 2013. Change and Variability in East Antarctic Sea Ice Seasonality, 1979/80–2009/10. PLoS ONE 8(5): e64756. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0064756 Meredith, M. P., et al. 2013 The vision for a Southern Ocean Observing System. Curr Opin Environ Sustain. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.03.002 Meredith, M.P et al., Southern Ocean [in ‘State of the Climate in 2014”’. Bull. Amer.Meteor. Soc., 96(7) S157 Paolo, F. et al, 2015. Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science, Vol. 348 no. 6232 pp. 327-331.

DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa0940

Article Rintoul et al, 2014: “Seeing Below the Ice: A Strategy for Observing the Ocean Beneath Antarctic Sea Ice and Ice Shelves”. SOOS workshop report, in press (http://soos.aq/ products/soos-products?view=product&pid=26) Saba, G.K., et al, 2014: Winter and spring controls on the summer food web of the coastal West Antarctic Peninsula, Nature Communications, 5, article number 4318, doi: 10.1038/ncomms5318

Schmidtko, S., 2014. Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters, Science, 2014.

Stammerjohn, S. E., et al, 2012. Regions of rapid sea ice change: an inter-hemispheric seasonal comparison.

Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06501.

Wanninkhof, R., et al, 2013. Global ocean carbon uptake: magnitude, variability and trends, Biogeosciences, 10, 1983-2000, doi:10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013.

The Research Corner with Damien Irving

A call for reproducible research volunteers Around the time that I commenced my Ph.D. (May 2012… yes, I know I should have finished by now!) there were lots of editorial-style articles popping up in prestigious journals like Nature and Science about the reproducibility crisis in computational research. Most papers do not make the data and code underpinning their key findings available, nor do they adequately specify the software packages and libraries used to execute that code.

That means it is impossible to replicate and verify most the results presented in academic journals in the weather and climate sciences today.

Upon reading a few of these editorials, I decided that I would try and make sure that the results presented in my Ph.D. were fully reproducible from a code perspective (my research uses publicly available reanalysis data, so the data availability component of the crisis was not so relevant to me). While this was an admirable goal, I quickly discovered that despite the many editorials pointing to the problem, I could find very few (none, in fact) regular weather/climate papers that were actually reproducible. (By “regular,” I mean papers where code was not the main focus of the work, like it might be in a paper describing a new climate model.) A secondary aim of my thesis therefore became to consult the literature on (a) why people do not publish their code, and (b) best practices for scientific computing.

I would then use that information to devise an approach to publishing reproducible research that reduced the barriers for researchers while also promoting good programming practices.

My first paper using that approach was recently accepted for publication with the Journal of Climate (Irving & Simmonds, 2015) and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society have accepted an essay I have written explaining the rationale behind the approach (Irving, in press). In a nutshell, it requires the author to provide three key supplementary items: 1. A description of the software packages and operating system used Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 174

2. A (preferably version controlled and publicly accessible) code repository 3. A collection of supplementary log files that capture the data processing steps taken in producing each key result The essay then goes on to suggest how academic journals might implement this as a formal minimum standard for the communication of computational results. As soon as the essay was accepted for publication, I contacted the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Board on Data Stewardship. They are the group that decides the rules that AMS journals impose around data and code availability.

By the time this issue of BAMOS comes out, they will have just discussed my proposed minimum standard at their Board meeting during the AMS Annual Meeting in New Orleans.

The next step is where you come in. I would really love to find a few volunteers that would be willing to try and meet the proposed minimum standard when they write their next journal paper. These volunteers could then give feedback on the experience, which would help inform the Board on Data Stewardship in developing a formal policy around code availability. If you think you might like to volunteer, please get in touch!

A version of this article is available on my blog, which provides links to more information on many of the topics covered: http://drclimate.wordpress.com References: Irving, D., in press, A minimum standard for publishing computational results in the weather and climate sciences, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00010.1.

Irving, D. and Simmonds, I., 2015, A novel approach to diagnosing Southern Hemisphere planetary wave activity and its influence on regional climate variability, Journal of Climate, 28, 9041-9057, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0287.1.

Charts from the Past with Blair Trewin

24 October 1914 1914, a strong El Niño year, was a severe drought year throughout much of south-west and south-east Australia.

The January–October period was the driest on record for Victoria, the second-driest for Tasmania and the thirddriest for south-west Western Australia.

Warm conditions began to develop in August and continued through September, but it was from early October that abnormal heat became well established in southern Australia. The period from the 3rd to the 6th was very hot in southern Western Australia, and included an October record of 39.9°C at Esperance on the 4th. Victoria had a prolonged warm spell in which Melbourne had seven consecutive days above 27°C (easily an October record), peaking at 32.3°C on the 8th.

After a cool middle of the month (Melbourne had its third-coldest October night, 0.4°C, on the 16th), a large high pressure system developed in the Great Australian Bight on the 17th, moving to the east of Bass Strait by the 19th, before remaining near-stationary for several days.

Initially this brought hot conditions to southern Western Australia, with 35°C reached daily at Eucla from the 20th to the 23rd, but from the 22nd onwards, winds turned more northwesterly over south-east Australia and temperatures increased rapidly.

Over most of southeastern Australia, the 24th was the hottest day of the period as winds strengthened ahead of an approaching trough. October records included 36.9°C at Melbourne and 34.2°C at Cape Otway, whilst other notable values included 38.9°C at Mildura, 37.9°C at Adelaide, 37.2°C at Nhill and Rutherglen, and 30.1°C at Launceston. Given the very dry antecedent conditions —October went on to be the driest on record for both Victoria and Tasmania­—and the hot, dry conditions on

the day, it was not surprising that there were numerous bushfires. The worst of these was in the Sassafras/Olinda area in the Dandenong Ranges, where six houses were lost, while there were also major fires south of Ballarat, at Walhalla in Gippsland, and in the Adelaide Hills. (Later in the week three people died in a bushfire in the South Australian Riverland.)

A (largely rainless) trough which passed overnight on the 24th brought an end to the heatwave in southern Victoria and Tasmania, while further north the heat continued largely unabated. Kerang’s 40.0°C on the 25th stood as a Victorian October record until 2004, and temperatures on the 29th and 30th were similar to those a few days earlier, including 38.9°C at Rutherglen. In parts of the Riverina, maximum temperatures for 21–31 October were more than 12°C above normal. Snowtown had 11 consecutive days above 30°C, and Wagga had nine days out of ten above 33°C. With such significant heatwaves at both the start and end of the month, October 1914 set monthly temperature records across many parts of southern Australia.

Maximum temperatures for the month at Rutherglen Viticultural College were 8.1°C above normal, the largest monthly anomaly on record for any Australian station (relative to the 1961–1990 baseline). Tasmania’s monthly maximum temperature anomaly of +3.20°C remains its largest on record for any month, whilst similar records in Victoria and New South Wales were only broken in 2009.

November was also a very warm month (although more so for minimum than maximum temperatures, as conditions turned wetter), and spring 1914 remains the warmest on record for both Victoria and New South Wales. In the latter state, it took until 2007 for 1914 to be surpassed as the hottest year on record.

Synoptic chart for 24 October 1914 (time unknown) Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 175

BAMOS book reviews Read any books involving the AMOS sciences lately? If so, why not tell us about it! BAMOS is now seeking book reviews, across fiction or non-fiction. Book reviews are a great way to inform the community about what to read if they are interested in, (fascinated by, even!), the AMOS sciences. We are now accepting submissions from half to one-page long.

To get things started, we have two books courtesy of CSIRO Publishing to give-away in exchange for a review. I’ll be carrying them with me to the 2016 AMOS/ARCCSS conference, so any readers who are intrigued by either of the books below, please do let me know and I’ll provide further details. The books can also be sent out if I don’t see you in person.

I’m on Melissa@amos.org.au, or come and find me at the conference. I look forward to hearing from you!

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 176

Calendar

2016

May

February 8–11 AMOS/ARCCSS Melbourne, Australia

National

Conference

2016,

12–15 IX International Congress on the History of Oceanography “Discovery of changes in the oceans of the World”, Adelaide, Australia 21–26 AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting, New Orleans, USA

April 17–22 EGU 2016, Vienna International Center, Vienna, Austria

23–27, 2016, The 48th International Liege colloquium on Ocean Dynamics “Submesoscale Processes: Mechanisms, implications and new frontiers”, Liege, Belgium

July 31–5 August, 13th Annual Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, Beijing, China

2017 January 22–26 2017 AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, USA

February TBC AMOS National Conference 2017, Canberra

Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal

Articles — Vol. 65 No. 2, December 2015 Bridge. Why are temperature forecasts from the Australian digital forecast database poorer on summer afternoons?

Pepler et al. The influence of climate drivers on the Australian snow season.

Cook. A statistical model of the seasonal-diurnal wind climate at Adelaide.

Grace. Using the stretched exponential distribution to model runs of extremes in a daily meteorological variable.

Regular features: Klekociuk et al. The Antarctic ozone hole during 2013.

Hope et al. Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (spring 2014): El Niño continues to try to break through, and Australia has its warmest spring on record (again!).

Wu. Quarterly numerical weather prediction model performance summary—January to March 2015.

Wu. Quarterly numerical weather prediction model performance summary—April to June 2015.

Articles — Vol. 65 No. 3–4, December 2015 Peace et al. WRF and SFIRE simulations of the Layman fuel reduction burn.

Smith et al. Tropical low formation during the Australian monsoon: the events of January 2013.

Huva et al. Influential synoptic weather types for a future renewable energy dependent national electricity market.

Charles et al. Seasonal forecasting for Australia using a dynamical model: improvements in forecast skill over the operational statistical model.

Saha and Wasimi. Statistical modelling of tropical cyclones’ longevity after landfall in Australia.

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 177

Regular features: Blockley. Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (summer 2014–15): very warm summer with above average rainfall.

Cook. Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (autumn 2015): El Niño arrives.

Wu. Quarterly numerical weather prediction model performance summary—July to September 2015.

BAMOS Author Guidelines

For all submissions: The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (BAMOS) accepts short (<2500 words) contributions of original research work for peerreview and consideration in the “Science Articles” section.

Longer articles will be considered at the discretion of the Editor and Editor-in-Chief. Articles submitted to BAMOS should also be appropriate for the whole AMOS community (from weather enthusiasts to professional members) and should aim to be concise without using excessive scientific jargon.

For the peer-reviewed “Science Articles” section, authors should follow these guidelines: 1. Articles should be submitted as a PDF or Word document (or similar) for peer-review and include all figures and tables either within the main text or consecutively at the end of the article.

2. Articles should have a line spacing of 1.5 or more using a font size of 12. Articles should preferably be written using Times New Roman or Arial.

3. Articles should be split into sections, with the heading for each section numbered consecutively and using a font size of 14. For example (these are title examples, headings are made at the authors’ discretion):

1. Introduction

2. Method

3. Results

4. Conclusions

4. An abstract is required and should not be more than 150 words in length.

5. Acknowledgements to be included after the final work section and before the references.

6. References should follow these example formats: •

Journal Articles:

Jung, T., Ferranti, L. and Tompkins, A.M., 2006, Response to the summer of 2003 Mediterranean SST anomalies over Europe and Africa, Journal of Climate, 19, 5439–5454.

•

Books:

Holton, J.R., 2004, An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology. Academic Press, New York. 535 pp.

•

Book chapter:

Raymond, D.J., 1993. Chapter 2: Observational constraints on cumulus parameterizations. In: The representation of cumulus convection in numerical models, Meteorological

Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Vol. 28 page 178

Monographs, 24 (46), 17–28, American Meteorological Society, Boston, USA. •

Theses:

Trewin, B., 2001, Extreme temperature events in Australia.

PhD Thesis, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia.

•

Web sites:

Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2012, Bushfire history - Major bushfires in Victoria, www.dse. vic.gov.au/fire-and-other-emergencies/major-bushfires-invictoria/ 7. We recommend that the author(s) make five suggestions for referees to undertake the peer-review.

Also, we ask for a list of five potential referees whom the author does not want as reviewers, due to conflicts of interest, or past close association..

8. Once peer-review has been completed, a final version of the document should be sent to the editor either in Word format or as plain text. The document should also include figure and table captions and the references but no figures. Figure files should be sent separately (they may be in any format and the editor will confer with the author(s) on the resolution and formatting).

9. Galley-proofs will be sent to the author(s) for final checking before publication.

BAMOS also accepts a wide range of non-peer-reviewed work, for example news items, charts from the past, conference reports, book reviews, biographical articles and meet a member. AMOS members are therefore encouraged to submit articles that would be of general interest to the AMOS community without necessarily requiring peer review. File formats should follow those given above; a word or plain text document should be submitted (which includes any figure captions and tables) along with any figure files given separately.

All articles should be either posted or emailed to the editor with any questions on the formatting also directed to the editor (see the inside back cover of this issue for contact details).

2015/16 AMOS Council Executive

President Vice-President Secretary Treasurer Past President

Todd Lane Mary Voice Damien Irving Angela Maharaj Blair Trewin

03-8344 6516 0419 949 952 03-8344 6911 02-9385 0593 03-9669 4623

Ordinary Members Ailie Gallant Andrew Klekociuk Adam Morgan Neville Nicholls Andy Pitman Ian Watterson

03-9905 3216 03-6232 3382 03-9905 4424 03-9902 0111 02-9385 9766 03-9239 4544

AMOS Executive Officer Jeanette Dargaville GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001 (attn: AMOS admin officer) Phone 0404 471 143 E-mail: admin@amos.org.au

Sub-Committee Convenors Public Relations Education & Outreach Awards 2016 Conference 2017 Conference

Centre Chairs ACT Adelaide Brisbane Darwin Hobart Melbourne NSW Perth

Vacant Vacant Mark Williams Ailie Gallant Clem Davis

0419 519 440 03-9905 3216 TBC

Bob Cechet Darren Ray Andrew Wiebe Ian Shepherd Andrew Marshall Andrew King Anthony Kiem Merv Lynch

02-6268 8883 08-8366 2664 0450 460 676 08-8920 3821 03-6232 5184 TBC TBC 08-9266 7540

Representatives

AMOJ Science & Technology Australia

David Karoly

03-8344 4698

Steven Phipps

02-9385 8957

AMOS is represented on the relevant Australian Academy of Science committees.

2015 Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society ISSN 1035-6576

Editor

Melissa Lyne Email: melissa@amos.org.au

Science Editor

Willow Hallgren Email: whallgren@tpg.com.au

Editor-in-chief

Duncan Ackerley Email: duncan.ackerley@monash.edu

Associate Editor (oceanography)

Christopher Bull

Assistant Editors

Regional Sub-editors Michael Hewson (Brisbane) TBC (Melbourne) TBC (NSW) Bob Cechet (ACT) Craig Macaulay (TAS) Jenny Hopwood (WA)

Contributors Blair Trewin Damien Irving

Advertising Manager

Please contact the Executive Officer.

Publisher

AMOS, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001, Australia

Diana Greenslade, Blair Trewin and Linden Ashcroft.

Contributed articles, news, announcements and correspondence for the Bulletin should be sent to the editor no later than 22 February 2016. They will be reviewed and the galley proofs returned to the author if requested. An ASCII version of the text is required via e-mail or digital media to minimise typographic errors.

The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society is produced and distributed with the assistance of CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and the Bureau of Meteorology.

AMOS Website: www.amos.org.au

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