New Insights. Innovative Solutions. A Bright Tomorrow. 2 0 1 9 A N N UA L R E P O R T
Atmospheric Sciences Research Center
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Table of Contents 1 D I R E C T O R ’ S S T AT E M E N T
2 ABOUT ASRC
3 R E N E WA B L E E N E R G Y
6 L O N G I S L A N D O Z O N E S T U DY
7 A C T I O N A B L E W E AT H E R S C I E N C E F O R S O C I A L G O O D
8 COMMUNITY OUTREACH & OTHER RESEARCH
9 HIGHLIGHTS
Director’s Statement In my first year as interim director of the Atmospheric Sciences Research Center (ASRC), I have been struck by the scope, quality, and impact of the research being undertaken by the faculty at the center. We excel in many key areas, including aerosolcloud and precipitation; air quality and chemistry; micrometeorology; renewable energy; water; and climate/weather AI and data analytics. This year we have also created two exciting new labs funded by New York State to promote economic development—the xCITE Lab and the Calibration Lab. I remain very proud of how New York State is more resilient to extreme weather thanks to the data provided by the NYS Mesonet—1 billion observations and counting! And I’ve been impressed by the partnerships we continue to build through the work of our NYS Center of Excellence to assist businesses impacted by weather. In this annual report, you’ll read about some of the important work being undertaken at ASRC. We could not cover everything here—we will include other areas in subsequent reports!
new Empire Innovation faculty member in urban meteorology and health. Empire Innovation is a state-funded grant program dedicated to recruiting and retaining world-class faculty at SUNY. We also hope to be hiring a second Empire Innovation faculty member in the area of renewable energy in the near future. We will celebrate the 50th anniversary of our Whiteface Mountain facility and expand and promote the facility’s research in atmospheric chemistry and air quality, as well as their outreach activity. We will continue to build and promote our weather-AI and data analytic capabilities and look forward to capitalizing on the NYS Mesonet observations in support of severe weather prediction, renewable energy, and hydrology research, as well as K-12 educational activity. I am grateful to our partners at UAlbany—especially the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, the School of Public Health, and the College of Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security, and Cybersecurity. And to Vice President for Research James Dias and his staff for their continued support and encouragement throughout the year.
As we look forward to the coming year, we have a number of important plans. We will be hiring a Chris Thorncroft
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Atmospheric Sciences Research Center
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The Atmospheric Sciences Research Center (ASRC) is SUNY’s go-to resource for basic, applied, and experimental research in atmospheric sciences. ASRC’s world-class scientists explore the interaction of chemical, physical, geological, and biological processes that impact our air, land, and water. Through technology transfer and collaboration with state, federal, and industry partners, ASRC faculty, researchers, and students develop innovative solutions that advance the well-being of New York State’s citizens, increase economic development in the State, and prepare tomorrow’s experts for careers in academia, government, and industry. ASRC, together with the Department of Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences, the NYS Mesonet, and the Center of Excellence in Weather & Climate Analytics, represent one of the largest and most prominent concentrations of atmospheric science experts in the country. A S R C F A C U LT Y Craig Ferguson, PhD David Fitzjarrald, PhD Jeffrey Freedman, PhD Lee Harrison, PhD Everette Joseph, PhD Sara Lance, PhD Cheng-Hsuan Lu, PhD Scott Miller, PhD
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Qilong Min, PhD Richard Perez, PhD James Schwab, PhD Kara Sulia, PhD Christopher Thorncroft (Director), PhD Christopher Walcek, PhD Wei-Chyung Wang, DEngS Fangqun Yu, PhD
Renewable Energy In June 2019, New York State passed the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, which mandates that 70% of the state’s electricity come from renewable sources by 2030 and 100% by 2040. Meeting these goals may be problematic given current technologies and policy approaches. Scientists at ASRC suggest it is possible as long as we’re willing to adopt new ways of thinking.
Two renewable energy resources—solar and wind— are powerful and abundant enough to meet the energy demands of the entire US. However, their output varies according to weather, day/night cycles, and summer/winter cycles. Previously it was viewed that this could only be achieved by adding storage to the mix for solar and wind to provide enough power.
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Atmospheric Sciences Research Center
This viewpoint was formulated when solar energy was expensive to produce. Every kilowatt-hour generated represented a lot of capital, so every drop of it was monetized, sold as it was generated. Energy harvesters were paid only for the kilowatthours of energy they provided to the grid. A new model, formulated by ASRC’s Richard Perez, reassesses this problem by taking two simple factors into account. First, the price of solar energy has dropped so dramatically that it’s now cheaper to dump excess energy than it is to store it. Perez suggests building enough units to supply the required energy at all times, even if that means generating too much energy at any given time. The excess energy is either dumped or intentionally curtailed. Perez refers to the model as overbuilding and curtailment. Second, wind is strongest at night and in the winter. Solar is strongest during the day and in the summer. Rather than maintain the same
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balance of solar and wind throughout the day/ night cycle and the summer/winter cycle, Perez’s model adjusts the electrical grids according to the resources’ availability. In 2018, Perez tested the model in the not-sosunny state of Minnesota and found that wind and solar production can reliably meet 95% of the state’s energy needs by 2050 below current wholesale market prices. The model promises an energy grid based almost entirely on renewables, with minimum storage needed. But it requires a new way of thinking—a new regulatory and economic framework that pays energy providers according to a model of overbuilding and curtailment, not an outdated system of paying per kilowatt-hour.
Last year meteorologists from Consolidated Edison, Inc. approached the University about
Renewable Energy In June 2019, New York State passed the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, which mandates that 70% of the state’s electricity come from renewable sources by 2030 and 100% by 2040. Meeting these goals may be problematic given current technologies and policy approaches. Scientists at ASRC suggest it is possible as long as we’re willing to adopt new ways of thinking
co-developing a sophisticated system to forecast extreme wind events to better predict power outages. They were directed to ASRC energy researcher Jeff Freedman, who had previously conducted wind forecast studies with funding from the US Department of Energy.
and winds from the surface to a few thousand feet into the atmosphere. The Wind Extreme Forecast System, or WEFS, integrates artificial intelligence algorithms to adjust the initial model output to more accurately predict where extreme winds will occur across Con Ed’s service territories.
Freedman, Con Ed, and MESO, Inc., a private-sector partner located in Troy, NY, are designing a system that combines the kind of weather information you see on TV with real-time data on temperature, humidity,
Once the system has been successfully tested, other utilities or state and federal agencies such as the National Weather Service could adopt it to more accurately predict extreme winds.
Support ASRC! Help to grow ASRC’s important research by donating online: W W W. A L B A N Y. E D U / G I V I N G 1 Click on the “Give Now” button 2 Click on the box “View All Areas of Support” 3 Click the radio button “Click to View More Options” 4 Scroll to Research Centers and choose Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, then click the “Continue” button For more information: 518-956-7953 or mmahon@albany.edu
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Atmospheric Sciences Research Center
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Long Island Ozone Study P U B L I C H E A LT H I S A C R I T I C A L A S P E C T O F AT M O S P H E R I C R E S E A R C H . ASRC students and faculty studying air pollution participated in the Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS). Ozone—the primary ground-level ingredient in smog—is a harmful gas that forms from pollutants emitted from New York City and is transported to Long Island, Connecticut, and places downwind. The study aims to improve our understanding of ozone chemistry and the complicated patterns of sea breezes transporting this and other gaseous pollutants. LISTOS employs researchers from state and federal agencies, as well as faculty and students from more than a half dozen universities—including City College of New York, Stony Brook University, and Yale University—giving undergrads valuable hands-on research before graduate school. The ASRC research team, led by Janie Schwab, launched sensors into the atmosphere with balloons to collect data on ozone levels up to 115,000 feet. Following each launch, they track the data in real time. In addition to simply collecting data, they compare their measurements against those recorded by sea- and ground-based sensors, to assess long-term trends and make recommendations for improving the region’s air quality. They’ll also compare their measurements against data from six NYS Mesonet weather stations located on Long Island and the New York City metro area. The study will benefit the health and well-being of over 20 million people living in New York City, as well as millions more downwind in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and beyond.
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Actionable Weather Science for Social Good UAlbany’s Weather-Climate Enterprise pushes the forefront of applied research for the benefit of society, through development of innovative tools for decisionmakers, data collection, data analytics/artificial intelligence, and provision of industry-based solutions. Following Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, New York State funded UAlbany to design, install, and operate the Early Warning Weather Detection System. At its heart is the NYS Mesonet, 126 automated weather stations collecting real-time weather-related data in every county and borough in the state. 1,825 sensors capture half a million observations a day, with more than one billion archived to date. The system’s more specialized sites use pulsing lasers to measure wind height, while all 126 stations feature solar monitoring sensors. The collected data will provide better and more timely situational awareness to emergency managers; better integrate renewable energies into electrical grids; and enable energy operators to develop better efficiency in operating strategies. Mesonet staff brief policy-makers, scientists, and teachers on a regular basis. The NYS Department of Economic Development–funded Quality Assurance Laboratory for Instrument Innovation, Testing, and Analysis for Weather Detection (Calibration Lab) will ensure that the NYS Mesonet data is of the highest quality through routine calibration of the sensors.
information technology hardware and software suite that facilitates ultra-high-end data and visual analytics, machine learning, software development, and multidisciplinary collaboration. xCITE staff, with both computational development and meteorological expertise, partner with private and public organizations to help improve operational resiliency, streamline management of natural resources, and assess military mobility, among countless projects. xCITE lab staff also participate in community outreach programs for underserved populations. Weather-related businesses and industries come to the Center of Excellence (COE) in Weather & Climate Analytics seeking partnerships, research, and expertise in digital weather solutions. The entrepreneurial hub offers analytics on solar and wind power; severe weather risk; AI-generated weather solutions; and weather modeling. To date, the COE has engaged with more than 100 companies, delivered over $8 million in impact in areas related to jobs created/retained, revenue generation/cost savings, and supported over $12 million in federal grants.
The xCITE Lab (ExTreme Collaboration, Innovation, and TEchnology) is home to a state-of-the-art
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Atmospheric Sciences Research Center
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Community Outreach & Other Research THE ASRC ENGAGES WITH THE COMMUNITY YEAR-ROUND. ASRC works through UAlbany’s Science & Technology Entry Program (STEP) to reach underrepresented and economically disadvantaged students. Through workshops and fun activities like programming contests, the Center exposes high school students to atmospheric and computer science; trains them to solve scientific problems with technology; and opens up pathways to pursue careers in STEM.
they were encouraged to consider STEM careers.
Forty eighth-grade girls visited ASRC to learn how exciting it is to be a scientist. They were attending Girls Inc.’s EUREKA! immersive science summer camp organized by the College of Arts and Sciences, where
In the spring and summer of 2019 ASRC hosted a series of free public lectures—known as the Falconer Natural History Lecture Series—in Albany and at Whiteface Mountain.
At Family Earth Day, organized by DAES, kids and parents learned about environmental science and sustainability through a series of hands-on activities like tree planting, launching a weather balloon, and creating clouds in a bottle. The event was cosponsored by ASRC, NYS Mesonet, and DAES.
F R O M M I T T O TA I WA N , T O T H E AT M O S P H E R E A N D B E Y O N D , ASRC HELPS SHAPE OUR GLOBAL FUTURE. Climate models need to be as accurate as possible, but tiny particles in the air known as aerosols introduce a measure of uncertainty. ASRC researcher Fangqun Yu demonstrated that including the effect of climate change and land use on organically generated aerosols reduces uncertainty in the models. Even before completing his BA, Aleks Siemenn presented his undergraduate research project at the annual meetings of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society. His computer model simulated the potential of a renewable energy source called oscillating water column
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systems. In summer 2018, he interned with Dr. Jeffrey Freedman on his extreme winds forecasting project. Aleks, who graduated from DAES, is currently working on a PhD in mechanical engineering at MIT. The National Science Foundation’s Partnerships for International Research and Education (PIRE), an international program designed to foster global awareness, welcomed ten undergrads from Taiwan to study extreme weather events in collaboration with ASRC researchers. The goal is to prepare the next generation of atmospheric scientists to be culturally aware.
Highlights
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Proposals Submitted in FY 2018-19
ASRC Published in
Federal DOE
$1,592,374
NSF $3,570,179
$1,084,763
NASA
Journals
NOAA
$576,530
Private
$1,592,544
$1,692,386
Nature Solar Energy Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences International Journal of Climatology Journal of Climate
State NYSERDA
TOTAL = $10,259,423
...just to name a few
NYS - other = $150,648
Active Awards FY 2018-19, by Principal Investigator
16
Faculty
3
Post Docs
24
Research Staff
10
Admin Staff
20
Graduate Students
10
Undergraduate Students 9
Atmospheric Sciences Research Center University at Albany State University of New York CESTM Building 251 Fuller Road Albany, New York 12203 Phone: (518) 437-8705 Fax: (518) 437-8758